Could Russia Defeat a Ukrainian Insurgency?
04.14.2014 at 11:50pm
Could Russia Defeat a Ukrainian Insurgency? By Robert Beckhusen, War is Boring
There’s no doubt the Russian military has the means to invade mainland Ukraine. But whether it can hold conquered territory is another question—especially if Kiev puts up a fight.
That’s the conclusion of the Swedish Defense Research Agency, Stockholm’s government-funded military think tank.
The agency—known as FOI—doesn’t doubt that Russia can invade. But it does question whether Moscow has the ability to secure territory in mainland Ukraine, given the potential size of the area Russia would need to secure—and absent the natural defensive barriers of Crimea, which Moscow annexed in March…
With any luck, the US/EU, various Ukranian leaders, and Russia will recreate a Line of Control like between India and Pakistan (Russia and NATO/US with nukes), coupled with an insurgency in Ukraine.
It takes a special kind of skill for Western and other elites to create such a fantastic strategic scenario. Good job Victoria Nuland and others, all the way around…./sarc.
/sarc because, incredibly, no one seems to be the least bit interested in the larger problems with the way in which this crisis has escalated and the utter nonsense bordering on propaganda in the Western and other media.
Hoping for an insurgency if Russia invades, in view of the country’s record in Chechnya, excuses the West of any moral obligations while, once again, millions of Ukrainians die at Russian hands. Something unsettling about this logic. Now that China has witnessed appeasement in Syria and Ukraine, will we use the same excuse when Peking goes after Taiwan?
As probably the only one writing here that has worked with a Russian BN and Russian Bde staffs (2012 and 2013) of one of their two peacekeeping Bdes that have had UN deployments—-It was hard to get both staffs to understand that in peacekeeping operations the protection of civilians concept has the highest priority.
They still have the deep second nature to go straight to the use of force and call it peacekeeping.
It is that hammer mindset that still pervades since WW2 and regardless of how much they have transformed in the last six years it still is there.
Do not underestimate their counter UW abilities—was the USASF operations leader of a Ranger Company during the last big Reforger exercise in 1989 where I was given guidance by the 10th SFGA Commander to use Warsaw Pact counter UW TTPs that had been then just recently revealed to the West against NATO/US SOF.
Was able to defend using strictly WP counter UW tactics in a large scale maneuver area with critical infrastructure for over three weeks without losing a single object against four different NATO special ops teams plus several from USASF and Delta.
Warsaw Pact had it right in 1989 as they fully understood US UW ops and the Russian counter UW TTPs have not changed much from then to now.
“Could Russia Defeat a Ukrainian Insurgency?” is the wrong question.
The right question is “Can Kiev Defeat the current Russian Insurgency in Ukraine?.”
I do not understand what everyone is all upset about.
Look most of us would agree with the saying ‘History repeats itself.’ If we had had a point in history where Germany was the strongest country in Europe. The European militaries were impotent to the point they could not take on a (as in 1) 3rd a world country even while that country was within range of their land bases and involved in its own civil war. A pro Communist government was in power in Russia. A European country was annexing parts of other countries to ‘protect’ its population that just happen to be on the wrong side of a boarder, while the winners of the previous world war did nothing, except reduce their militaries even more. While at the same time the US was adopting Socialist policies and drawing down its military post a worldwide economic hit. Simultaneously an Asian country was trying to build a Navy capable of fighting the US Navy, building Aircraft Carreers, and simultaneously claiming territory across Asia and the Pacific. With the annexing European country and the Asian country sharing a similar base ideology. Then and only then should anyone be worried and by default know the answer to the problem, and be able to predict the future.
Now IF, and only IF that had happened at some point in history, (ie 80 years ago)you would start to ask:
Where is the Neo-Danzig?
OR
When will China be Anschluss’ing Taiwan?
But since this has never happened in all of history, what is there to worry about?
(I hope you have all noticed a slightly sarcastic tone)