News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1.  Korean War Records | Newspapers & Articles

2. Korea: The war that never ended continues

3. Moon Hails 'Honest' Kim Jong-un in TIME Interview

4. N. Korea seen marking Korean War anniversary in low-key fashion

5. S. Korea holds 71st Korean War anniversary event for first time in Busan

6. Satellite imagery suggests ongoing expansion of N. Korean airbase for larger aircraft

7. Ending S. Korea-U.S. working group on N.K. not an incentive for Pyongyang: ex-Moon adviser

8. Korea-U.S. alliance remains linchpin of peace 71 years after start of Korean War: Pentagon

9. Sinuiju authorities change tack in trying to wean people off of Chinese mobile phones

10. S. Korea expresses 'deep regret' over IOC's response to Dokdo issue

11. North Korea’s Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know

12. Kim Yo Jong: What We Know About Kim Jong Un’s Sister and Her Role in North Korea

13. SOCKOR Welcomes New Commander

14. What ails Biden’s bid to re-engage North Korea talks

15. Can Maximum Pressure Destabilize North Korea and Its Nuclear Ambitions?

16. North Korea food shortage: Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 policy could lead to mass starvation

17. The Defiant Failed State: How Stable is North Korea Right Now?

18. North Korea's Enduring Economic and Security Presence in Africa

19. S. Korea, U.S. see dialogue with N.K. as still possible despite Pyongyang's rejection

 

1.  Korean War Records | Newspapers & Articles

archives.com

 

2. Korea: The war that never ended continues

North Jersey · by Carl J. Asszony

No major articles in the major media outlets on the Korean War anniversary. Still the Forgotten War for the most part.

 

3. Moon Hails 'Honest' Kim Jong-un in TIME Interview

english.chosun.com · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “TIME noted that Kim "murdered his uncle and half-brother in cold blood and, according to a landmark 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry, presides over 'crimes against humanity' including extermination, torture, rape and causing prolonged starvation."

"For many North Korea watchers, Moon's steadfast defense of Kim is verging on delusional," it added.

Asked about the chances of dialogue with North Korea before he leaves office, Moon said, "I know that I don't have much time myself... The peace we have right now is a very fragile one; it can be shaken at any time."

But he claimed his "constant dialogue and communication" with Kim have led to "mutual trust." There has been no communication between the two Korean leaders since 2019, and North Korea has angrily rebuffed all South Korean advances.

 

4. N. Korea seen marking Korean War anniversary in low-key fashion

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 25, 2021

Excerpts: “The official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, in particular, carried just two articles on the Korean War on Friday, without any relevant photos.

In those articles, the North repeated its claims that the war broke out due to imperialists' invasion, and its late state founder and grandfather of the current leader, Kim Il-sung, led the nation to victory.

The paper, instead, reported on leader Kim joining a music performance held after a recent key party meeting, and a trip to a chicken farm under construction by Choe Ryong-hae, a top party official, in its front-page articles.

The Korean War broke out after North Korean troops invaded the South on June 25, 1950, with backing from China and the Soviet Union. It ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

 

5. S. Korea holds 71st Korean War anniversary event for first time in Busan

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · June 25, 2021

 

6. Satellite imagery suggests ongoing expansion of N. Korean airbase for larger aircraft

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 25, 2021

What does this mean? A bigger target for ROK/US air power. (note tongue in cheek though it is true allied airpower will destroy this airfield after north Korea attacks the South))

Buried lede: Summer training cycle? Does north Korea conduct major training twice a year? The Summer Training Cycle and the Winter Training Cycle? Why are there no complaints about that training? Why should the ROK/US Combined Forces Command have to forgo defensive training when there is no reciprocity from the north and it continues its offensive training to prepare for an attack on the South:  "The timing of the project and its associated aircraft movements were apparently designed to coincide, in part, with the KPAF annual summer training cycle, when KPAF aircraft are redeployed for flight training and to test operational readiness," it said.

The report also noted the Sunchon airbase is a major airbase that houses two units of the 1st Air Combat Division, with Su-25K aircraft and a squadron equipped with MiG-29B/SE/UB fighters that it said are aged, but are "some of the most modern and capable aircraft in the KPAF's inventory."

 

7. Ending S. Korea-U.S. working group on N.K. not an incentive for Pyongyang: ex-Moon adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 25, 2021

Here is something on which I agree with Moon Chung-in. ending this working group will not sway KJU. But where Professor Moon and I disagree is that the termination of this working group is based on ignorance, misunderstanding, and politics and demonstrates a significant level of immaturity among some members of the Moon administration and the ruling party who have long opposed this working group.

On another note, is Moon Chung-in call for some kind of secret Moon-Kim summit and then "announcing it afterward?" How will tat work? Why would Kim agree to such a "summit?"

"What's the most important are the talks between the South and the North," Moon said. "For that, we need to have a leaders' summit. We can have one unofficially and announce it afterwards," he said.

 

8. Korea-U.S. alliance remains linchpin of peace 71 years after start of Korean War: Pentagon

The Korea Times · June 25, 2021

Thank you Admiral Kirby for honoring the anniversary of the war and our alliance.

 

9. Sinuiju authorities change tack in trying to wean people off of Chinese mobile phones

dailynk.com · Lee Chae Un · June 25, 2021

I am sure to the inminban everyone is suspected of being a spy.

Excerpts: “The exhibition visits are followed by trips to the counter-espionage department of the provincial branch of the Ministry of State Security, where officials lecture participants on the “evils” of using Chinese mobile phones.

Counter-espionage officials reportedly stressed to lecture attendees that “there are many spies in our country [North Korea]. The border region is the area with the most spies.”

The lecturers told attendees that they should “unconditionally” turn themselves in if they are carrying a Chinese-made mobile phone, promising them a “last chance” in accordance with an order from the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to “forgive those who surrender themselves right away.” That is to say, the authorities are equating possession of a Chinese-made mobile phone with espionage, and if the owners hide them, it means they are “engaging in schemes against the Republic [North Korea].”

 

10. S. Korea expresses 'deep regret' over IOC's response to Dokdo issue

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 25, 2021

 

11. North Korea’s Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin

The "treasured sword" is...well... treasured. These are key to deterrence, prestige, pride, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy. Would you give them up?

 

12.  Kim Yo Jong: What We Know About Kim Jong Un’s Sister and Her Role in North Korea

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

An evil woman who I suspect can be as, if not more, harsh and brutal as her brother.

Excerpts: “She has been seen as an influential North Korean aide to the country’s leader due to her relationship with Kim Jong Un and participation in major diplomatic meetings with the U.S., China and South Korea. Her harsh rhetoric directed toward senior South Korean officials in 2020—including President Moon Jae-in —was seen as unusual by Seoul officials, as they had shared private conversations and drinks with Ms. Kim in recent inter-Korean meetings. Most remembered her as soft-spoken and polite.

In the U.S., she was sometimes perceived to be an unofficial counterpart to Ivanka Trump, who as the first daughter had advised and accompanied her father to diplomatic engagements with North Korea. The two also crossed paths in the 2018 Winter Olympics. Ms. Kim attended the opening ceremony as the unofficial head of the North Korean delegation, while Ms. Trump attended the closing ceremony as the leader of the U.S. delegation.

Ms. Kim has also been seen as a complicit violator of human rights by human rights organizations and the U.S. government. Her senior role in North Korea makes her partly responsible for the Kim regime’s continued executions, incarcerations and oppression of political prisoners, they say. Her role in a government propaganda department also links her to the Kim regime’s censorship activities, the Treasury Department said in January 2017, when it added her to its sanctions list.

 

13. SOCKOR Welcomes New Commander

Congratulations to Major General Martin and the SOCKOR team. I had the honor of knowing when I was on the faculty at the National War College. It is great to see his success with the continued opportunity to serve and make a difference. And congratulations for a great job by BG Otto Liller. I am sorry to hear that he will be retiring.  SOCKOR has come a long way from SOC-K that was headquartered in an old Japanese army bath house (latrine) next to the 8th Army HQ on Yongsan and then in an old Japanese morgue (where suspected Japanese biological warfare experiments took place) on Camp Kim.

I am pleased to see the emphasis on the combined nature of SOCKOR with the ROKA Special Warfare Command by General Clarke: “The event was also attended virtually by U.S. Army Gen. Richard D. Clarke, U.S. Special Operations Command commander, who spoke of Liller’s contributions as leading the only theater special operations command in which U.S. and host nation special operations forces are institutionally organized for combined operations.”

 

14. What ails Biden’s bid to re-engage North Korea talks

asiatimes.com · by Swaran Singh · June 24, 2021

Unfortunately there is no getting around it. denuclearization must be an objective that we strive to achieve. Giving up and allowing the Kim family regime to have a nuclear state is not something we can accept. Of course timing and the path to get to denuclearization are the keys. We will not have denuclearization tomorrow or. next month, or next year. 

We must answer the question of what is the acceptable, durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will serve, protect, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests?

 

15. Can Maximum Pressure Destabilize North Korea and Its Nuclear Ambitions?

The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · June 24, 2021

Change cannot occur unless it is supported on a foundation of a comprehensive and sophisticated and well orchestrated informational influence activities campaign executed in a sustained manner over a long period of time.

Unfortunately, the author's concluding recommendation fails to account for the nature, objectives, and strategy for the Kim family regime. Change is not going to occur merely by providing the regime security (and at least not security in the way we should define and offer it).

 

16. North Korea food shortage: Kim Jong-un’s COVID-19 policy could lead to mass starvation

theconversation.com · by Sojin Lim · June 24, 2021

It is very possible that this could happen. KJU has created the conditions for this to happen.

Excerpts: “Kim’s isolation may have successfully blocked the spread of COVID-19 and external cultural influence among the population, but it has also blocked the channels to basic necessity. Kim will need to reopen the borders in order to avert the second arduous march, but it will be hard for him to find immediate alternatives to mitigate the risks to his regime.

There are signs of gradual resumption of trade between North Korea and China, but it has been limited. As Kim has announced that North Korea needs to prepare for “both dialogue and confrontation” with the US, the international community could take this as an opportunity to approach North Korea again, but with more productive and practical solutions for its isolated people.

 

17. The Defiant Failed State: How Stable is North Korea Right Now?

The National Interest · by Wallace C. Gregson · June 24, 2021

Important analysis from Lt Gen Gregson: “We cannot predict the outcome. As Cohen and Gooch wrote, all military (and I would posit, national security) failures) result from three failures: failure to learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate. We cannot predict the outcome on the Korean peninsula but we can anticipate the contingencies that are likely to arise (the most dangerous ECOAs and the most likely ECOAs). And if we can anticipate then we can prepare. Preparation is the key.

 

18. North Korea's Enduring Economic and Security Presence in Africa

38north.org · by Samuel Ramani · June 24, 2021

north Korea is a global security problem.

 

19. S. Korea, U.S. see dialogue with N.K. as still possible despite Pyongyang's rejection

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 25, 2021

It will happen. But only when KJU believes he has an advantage and can achieve some of his objectives.

 

--------------

On this 71st anniversary of the attack by the communist north to steal freedom from the Republic of Korea:

 

“Our nation honors her sons and daughters who answered the call to defend a country they never knew and a people they never met.” 

- Korean War Memorial

 

"In my generation, this was not the first occasion when the strong had attacked the weak. [...] Communism was acting in Korea just as Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese had acted ten, fifteen, and twenty years earlier. I felt certain that if South Korea was allowed to fall, communist leaders would be emboldened to override nations closer to our own shores."

- President Harry Truman

 

"All war is a symptom of man's failure as a thinking animal."

-John Steinbeck

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. Validating America’s Core Values and Vital Interests to Recraft its Grand Strategy and Grand Strategic Assumptions

2.  Biden’s Pentagon chiefs tell lawmakers flat budget is enough

3. CJCS Milley Pushes Back On GOP Criticism Of Racism Training

4. Biden's domestic terrorism strategy marks a change in course for national security

5. Cross-strait peace is U.S. national security interest: top general

6. It’s more than chips: Other risks exist in defense electronics supply chain

7. U.S. can win battles, but needs better strategy to win wars

8. Chinese diplomat calls for true multilateralism, diversified forms of democracy

9. The Marxist, Maoist Invasion of American Education, Government, Military and Culture

10. Critical race theory and loving America are not mutually exclusive. My journey with CRT.

11. SECDEF wants you to know that supporting Donald Trump isn’t extremism

12. The military’s top officer schools congressmen on critical race theory, ‘white rage’ and communism

13. H.R. McMaster Resigns From Atlantic Council Board of Directors in Protest Over Koch Funding

14.  FDD | Hold Hamas Accountable for Human-Shields Use During the May 2021 Gaza War

15. FDD | How Deceptive Techniques Enhance the Capabilities of Cyber Defenders

16. DoD should reinstate programs granting citizenship through service, Army veteran senator says

17. McCaul, Blumenauer, Kinzinger, Crow: The Biden Administration Needs to Act Quickly to Bring Our Afghan Partners to Safety

18. SOCOM Preparing for ‘Omni-Domain’ Battle

19. It’s Now Life or Death for the U.S. Military’s Afghan Interpreters

 

1. Validating America’s Core Values and Vital Interests to Recraft its Grand Strategy and Grand Strategic Assumptions

thestrategybridge.org · by Anthony Buckel · June 24, 2021

I recall the importance of knowing our core values and vital interests from my CGSC notes on strategic studies 27 years ago.

 

Purpose:  expresses a nation’s enduring values.  (in US Dec of Independence and Preamble to the Constitution provide expressions of national purpose).

Interests: a state's wants, needs, and concerns.  They signal a state's desires and intentions to other states. The most common and generic include:

• Survival and security
• Political and territorial integrity
• Economic stability and well being
• Stability and world order

 

Objectives:  subordinate to the nation's interests.  They are activities and situations a nation needs to promote, protect, or attain its interests.  Tend to be more tangible than interests.  Objectives are the ends or desired outcomes of national security strategy.

Policies:  (most abused term!)  A pattern or patterns of actions designed to attain specific objectives.  Policy statements can represent a broad COA or intent.  Examples of policies include:  If a US objective is to contain Iranian radicalism, an appropriate policy would be to provide moderate regimes in the gulf with intelligence and military assistance.  If the objective is to promote regional stability, the US policy might be to prohibit the sale of WMDs to any nation in the region.  Policy represents the ways of national security strategy.

Commitments and programs:  Commitments are expressions of a nation's intention to use its instruments of national power. Commitments sharpen the focus. They clarify policy through action.  A program is tangible proof of a commitment.  It allocates resources in support of objectives, policies, and commitments.  A program usually indicates the precise amount of resources to be used and the time frame in which the program will be in operation.  Commitments and  programs represent the means (available resources)  of national security strategy.

 

2. Biden’s Pentagon chiefs tell lawmakers flat budget is enough

Defense News · by Joe Gould · June 23, 2021

I find this difficult to accept unless the new defense strategy is going to be less ambitious than the previous one and we are going to accept greater risk. It is possible that he is basing his assessment on the upcoming NDS which obviously has not been released or perhaps even completed.

 

3. CJCS Milley Pushes Back On GOP Criticism Of Racism Training

breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark · June 23, 2021

The SECDEF and CJCS are right to push back on the immature, ignorant, insulting, and grandstanding questions they received from some congressmen. General Milley is right that we need to read and be exposed to all ideas, even those with which we disagree (and especially those with which we disagree). But those who would ban an idea are actually undermining American values and they are admitting their weakness and inability to offer a superior idea. Banning ideas, regardless of how distasteful to some, is simply contrary to American values.

 

4. Biden's domestic terrorism strategy marks a change in course for national security

The Hill · by Gina Ligon and Seamus Hughes · June 19, 2021

Excerpts: “Moving a national security apparatus away from its historic focus on international terrorism and toward domestic extremism will entail serious challenges. The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Forces were set up to address threats from abroad. In even greater terms, the whole Department of Homeland Security was established in response to well-organized, hierarchical foreign terrorist organizations that commit years of planning to single attacks against the United States. With a few exceptions, domestic violent extremists are the opposite, pursuing sporadic campaigns of decentralized, low-budget, and minimal-planning attacks that result in significant death tolls and deepen societal polarization. To be successful, the administration will need to revamp how the counterterrorism workforce is trained and organized against the most pressing threat at home while keeping an eye on the foes abroad.

This new White House National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism is an important step. But it is just that: a step. The funding and organizational decisions that support the implementation of this plan will ultimately decide whether this first-of-its-kind strategy will result in lasting changes or not.

 

5. Cross-strait peace is U.S. national security interest: top general

focustaiwan.tw 

We have to turn to the foreign press for other reporting on the hearing at the HASC for the CJCS and SECDEF. All the US press is focused on is critical race theory. But they made some important statements that should not go unnoticed. 

 

6. It’s more than chips: Other risks exist in defense electronics supply chain

c4isrnet.com · by Chris Peters · June 23, 2021

Obviously defending our supply chains is a national security issue.

I love this quote: “In an oft-told story, the French general, Hubert Lyautey, once asked his gardener to plant a tree. The gardener objected that the tree was slow growing and would not reach maturity for 100 years. “In that case,” the marshal replied, “there is no time to lose. Plant it this afternoon.”

Likewise, America’s dependence on other nations for many of the most crucial links in the defense electronics supply chain is a long-term problem that requires industry-government collaboration now on an unprecedented scale. If the DoD truly wants to rebuild that supply chain, it will require immediate and sustained attention to the entire length of that chain, not just a few links.

 

7.  U.S. can win battles, but needs better strategy to win wars

upi.com  · by Harlan Ullman and Arnaud de Borchgrave

Perhaps. BFO (blinding flash of the obvious) but worth re-emphasizing: 

Excerpts: “Critical strategic thinking must start by defining achievable outcomes and then developing strategy. That is not the U.S. practice. Instead, the United State is prone to allowing a combination of imprecise objectives and technology and tactics to drive strategy. This is precisely backward.

Unless American leadership acknowledges the United States' limited record in winning wars, not just battles, and ascertains why victory has been so elusive, do not expect the current defense strategy regarding China and Russia to yield better results.

 

8. Chinese diplomat calls for true multilateralism, diversified forms of democracy

xinhuanet.com

I wonder if while spouting this Chinese propaganda the diplomat was able to keep a straight face? I wonder if anyone believed him? I wonder what he defines as true democracy?

Excerpts: "The key judgment is whether it fits the particular situation in a country, whether it represents the will of its people, and whether it safeguards people's interests and enjoys their support," he said, noting that "true democracy brings about political stability, social progress and well-being for the people, and contributes to the promotion and protection of human rights."

Speaking on behalf of 15 countries, Jiang said that to impose one's own social system and model of democracy on others under the pretext of democracy, interfere in other countries' internal affairs, and impose unilateral coercive measures are the very opposite of democracy and humanity, as those acts "violate the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights."

 

9.  The Marxist, Maoist Invasion of American Education, Government, Military and Culture

Newsmax · by Larry Bell

American values are the perfect counter to these ideas. If you are afraid of a marxist maoist invasion then you must not have very much confidence in the US Constitution and Declaration of Independence and the Federalist Papers.

 

10. Critical race theory and loving America are not mutually exclusive. My journey with CRT.

USA Today · by Sally Kohn

Another view on CRT.

 

11. SECDEF wants you to know that supporting Donald Trump isn’t extremism

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Austin added that the feedback he’s gotten from service members and leaders is that his extremism stand-down did not sow division. Gaetz asked if maybe those troops were just telling him what he wanted to hear, given that he had heard a differing opinion from his own sources.

“I get it, but I’m smart enough, and that does happen,” Austin shot back. “Yeah, you know, maybe they’re telling you what you want to hear.”

While Austin doesn’t have an extremism definition in hand, he has asked his experts to come up with one. He stood up a working group in April that is tasked with forming one, in addition to reviewing screening capabilities and training/education. “The issue is performance,” Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser at Rand Corp. and a former Special Forces officer, told Military Times in May. “And that is, to what extent may these beliefs, whatever they are, interfere with the mission of the military? Are they such that they might disrupt unit cohesion? Are they such that they will actually interfere with effective military action, whatever the job is?”

 

12.  The military’s top officer schools congressmen on critical race theory, ‘white rage’ and communism

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 23, 2021

There is video at the link. The CJCS responds well to the immature questioning from these congressmen.

 

13. H.R. McMaster Resigns From Atlantic Council Board of Directors in Protest Over Koch Funding

freebeacon.com · by Eliana Johnson · June 23, 2021

"The promotion of human rights undercuts America's strategic interests."  Really? Many were alarmed not only the funding ,but arguments of the "restainers" as well as the strange bedfellows of the Koch brothers and Soros funding research that seems to undercut America's strategic interests.

Excerpt: “McMaster, according to two sources familiar with the situation, was alarmed by the publication in March of an Atlantic Council report arguing that the promotion of human rights undercuts America's strategic interest. The report, authored by Emma Ashford and Matthew Burrows, was a product of an Atlantic Council project, the New American Engagement Initiative, funded by a $4.5 million grant from the Charles Koch foundation, according to a press release issued when the grant was announced.

 

14. FDD | Hold Hamas Accountable for Human-Shields Use During the May 2021 Gaza War

fdd.org · by Orde Kittrie · June 23, 2021

The 7 page memo can be downloaded in PDF here. 

Excerpts: “Implementing the Shields Act would also support U.S. efforts to undermine Hamas and Hezbollah and thereby strengthen their comparatively moderate rivals for power in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the May conflict, Blinken emphasized that while he wants to “rebuild our relationship with the Palestinian people and the Palestinian Authority,” he also wants to “ensure that Hamas does not benefit” from U.S. assistance. Blinken expressed hope that such assistance would “undermine” the terror group so that its “foothold in Gaza will slip.” Holding Hamas accountable for its use of human shields would help achieve that objective.

Humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian Authority and other Hamas rivals will not alone be sufficient to undermine the terror group. It is also essential to counter Hamas’ false narrative about the May 2021 Gaza conflict, in which the group portrays itself as protecting Gazans from Israeli war crimes. To that end, Biden should fulfil his statutory obligation and impose Shields Act sanctions, thereby demonstrating that Hamas terrorists are the real war criminals, including because they deliberately endangered Gaza civilians by using them as human shields.

 

15. FDD | How Deceptive Techniques Enhance the Capabilities of Cyber Defenders

fdd.org · by Dr. Georgianna Shea · June 23, 2021

Conclusion: “Once the live exercise was complete, the defense team stated that it highly recommends using deception practices, and that it plans to expand the use of deception for the participating client and other clients. While the security operations company was aware of the principle of using decoys, the company had not previously deployed them. The defense team had considered deception to be an advanced capability used only by large organizations with sophisticated defensive systems.

Using the decoy account allowed the cyber defenders to identify the event as a priority incident without relying on more subjective analysis, which sometimes leads defenders to dismiss an event as a false positive. The decoy account also enabled identification without relying on the signatures programmed into detection tools triggered by known patterns of malicious activity. This is especially useful when adversaries find new techniques that may not have a corresponding signature in defensive detection tools.

Simply purchasing and deploying defensive tools has never been enough to counter advanced threats. After all, adversaries also have access to the same off-the-shelf tools and can craft attacks to circumvent detection or to blend in with normal traffic. Just as advanced adversaries develop attack strategies tailored to their targets, a sophisticated defense requires a strategy tailored to the organization and the systems it protects.

 

16.  DoD should reinstate programs granting citizenship through service, Army veteran senator says

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 22, 2021

We need a real Lodge Act.

 

17. McCaul, Blumenauer, Kinzinger, Crow: The Biden Administration Needs to Act Quickly to Bring Our Afghan Partners to Safety

gop-foreignaffairs.house.gov

 

18. SOCOM Preparing for ‘Omni-Domain’ Battle

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Mandy Mayfield · June 24, 2021

"Omni-domain?" Mathematically which has "more" - omni or multi?

Seriously, here is the explanation: “However, “multi-domain is really omni-domain,’’ said Thomas Kenney, SOCOM’s chief data officer. “Information is coming from all directions these days, [so] multi-domain is just not enough of a thought process as we think about data and where we’re going.”

SOCOM is focused on how it will manage and leverage the large amounts of information being created, Kenney said in May during the virtual Special Operations Forces Industry Conference, which was organized by the National Defense Industrial Association.

 

19. It’s Now Life or Death for the U.S. Military’s Afghan Interpreters

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · June 22, 2021

 

--------------

 

The Coming of War 

The First Assaults 

In spite of a year of continuous psychological and political pressure and a number of military false alarms, the actual invasion of South Korea on 25 June 1950 came as a surprise. Many of the KMAG advisors and ROKA officers and men were on passes and spending the weekend in Seoul and other towns. Of the four divisions and one regiment assigned to the defensive positions south of the 38th Parallel, only four regiments and one battalion were actually at the front. The remainder were located in positions well to the rear.1 

 

Early on the morning of the 25th, elements of the ROK 17th Regiment stationed on the Ongjin Peninsula received heavy small arms fire from the North Korean Border Constabulary brigade facing them across the Parallel. (Map I) About 0400 high-explosive artillery and mortar shells began to fall on the ROK lines in increasing numbers.2 For over an hour the North Koreans continued a tremendous barrage. After the initial stunning shock, the ROK defenders rallied and returned fire, but, as dawn broke with overcast skies at 0530, elements of the North Korean (N.K.) 6th Division passed through the Border Constabulary and attacked in force. Soon they had annihilated an entire ROK battalion and had compelled the remnants of the 17th Regiment to fall back toward the sea.3

-Military Advisors in Korea: KMAG in Peace and War, by Major Robert K. Swayer

 

Paik Sun Yup (1920–2020) was only twenty-nine years old when the war broke out in Korea in 1950, but he was already a colonel and the commander of the First Division of the army of the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea). On the scene from the first day of conflict, Paik would be one of the principal players in the war until its end three years later. A highly talented military leader, he had been trained as a soldier in Manchuria, a large territory in northern China, and had served in the Manchurian army in World War II (1939–45). During the Korean War, Paik became Korea's first four-star general.

...

On the day of the invasion, however, Paik had been away from the ROK First for ten days, attending infantry school in Seoul. When he learned of the attack, he hurried to ROK headquarters. He soon learned that a good portion of his division had been given leave while he was away. When he got to the battlefront he found his Thirteenth Regiment fighting well, although just beginning an orderly withdrawal. The Eleventh Regiment, which had been on reserve, was beginning to muster its soldiers and appear on the scene. But the Twelfth Regiment had been almost entirely wiped out near the border town of Kaesong.

- From a review of  From Pusan To Panmunjom: Wartime Memoirs Of The Republic Of Korea's First Four-Star General

 

"History teaches that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap"

-Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Alternate Paths to Resuming Negotiations With North Korea

2. Not No, But Not Yet: Pyongyang Reacts to Washington’s Reaction

3.  South Korean President Moon Jae-in Makes One Last Attempt to Heal His Homeland

4. U.S. will lead with diplomacy to mitigate threats from N. Korea: Austin

5. North Korea seeks more concessions from US: experts

6. North Korea says it won't engage in talks with U.S. that would get nowhere

7. 'This Is a Window of Opportunity.' Ret. General Vincent K. Brooks on Why Things Might Be Moving Again With North Korea

8. North Korea executes 10 people who 'secretly used phones to call outside world'

9. North Korea's food supply in crisis as imports from China drop 90 percent

10. Can Kim Jung Un Survive North Korea's Next 'Arduous March?'

11. North Korea: The long-awaited fallout of summit diplomacy

12. Kim not exaggerating the food shortage; it’s bad

13. ＜Breaking News Inside N. Korea＞ Markets in turmoil across the country. Trading suspended as food prices hit year high and fears of what will happen next grow.

14. North Korea ramps up crackdowns on "non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior" in border region

15. S. Korea, U.S. agree to be ready for 'concrete' action if N. Korea responds to dialogue offer: source

16. Seoul city OKs relocation plan of U.S. embassy in Gwanghwamun to former USFK site

17. Relocation of U.S. embassy to Yongsan gets closer

18. North Korea Has Collapsed: The Headline You Don't Want to Ever See

 

1.  Alternate Paths to Resuming Negotiations With North Korea

38north.org · by Joseph R. Detrani · June 23, 2021

Conclusion: “Regardless of how skeptical one may be about North Korea’s willingness to denuclearize, the options for dealing with North Korea are finite: negotiations with the goal of complete and verifiable denuclearization, in return for a path to normal relations; acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear weapons state with the myriad of national security risks this would entail; or containing and further sanctioning North Korea while enhancing our deterrence posture in the region, with greater missile defense deployments and a likely discussion of the re-introduction of tactical nuclear weapons in the region. Stumbling into accidental conflict on the Korean Peninsula is a real possibility once we stop negotiating, assuming we do not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state and do not engage the North in arms control negotiations.

Unilaterally or multilaterally re-engaging with North Korea to establish a road map for verifiable denuclearization of a North Korea that wants normal relations with the US would continue to be the best approach for dealing with a nuclear North Korea.

 

2.  Not No, But Not Yet: Pyongyang Reacts to Washington’s Reaction

38north.org · by 38 North · June 23, 2021

Interesting (and hopeful) analysis: “In other words, “meaningless” contact is out, but by implication, more substantive talks are still possible. It is also conceivable that, at least in part, with the COVID restrictions still in place and face-to-face diplomatic contact not possible anyway, Pyongyang is throwing up this objection to “meaningless contact” as an excuse to buy time until it is ready. Although, over the years, Pyongyang has often said—and actually sometimes meant—it didn’t want talks for talks’ sake.

 

3. South Korean President Moon Jae-in Makes One Last Attempt to Heal His Homeland

TIME · by Charlie Campbell

It is very difficult for me to accept this statement from President Moon.  To me this illustrates the problem we have in the alliance - the differing views on the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.  Kim Jong-un as "honest?"  Really?: “Asked about Kim’s character, Moon found him “very honest … very enthusiastic [and] one with strong determination” who has “a good idea of what is going on around the world.” But lest we forget, this is the same man who murdered his uncle and half brother in cold blood and, according to a landmark 2014 U.N. Commission of Inquiry, presides over “crimes against humanity” including extermination, torture, rape and causing prolonged starvation.”

 

4. U.S. will lead with diplomacy to mitigate threats from N. Korea: Austin

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 24, 2021

Another statement at the SECDEF and CJCS HASC hearing yesterday that went unnoticed by the US press.

 

5.   North Korea seeks more concessions from US: experts

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · June 24, 2021

Exactly right.  KJU is trying to shape the environment to be able to successfully demand sanctions relief and other concessions in return for a promise to talk.  He continues his long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy. We need to see his words and actions for what they really are.

 

6. North Korea says it won't engage in talks with U.S. that would get nowhere

The Hill · by Lexi Lonas · June 23, 2021

I am sure someone will create some memes for KJU and his road to nowhere.

 

7. 'This Is a Window of Opportunity.' Ret. General Vincent K. Brooks on Why Things Might Be Moving Again With North Korea

TIME · by Charlie Campbell

 

8. North Korea executes 10 people who 'secretly used phones to call outside world'

Mirror · by Chris Kitching · June 23, 2021

Information and communication is an existential threat to the regime.

 

9. North Korea's food supply in crisis as imports from China drop 90 percent

Newsweek · by Rebecca Klapper · June 23, 2021

This is part of KJU trying to shape the environment to get sanctions relief.  Yes I think there is tremendous suffering inside north Korea and I agree it is a rare admission by KJU that things are bad.  But he may be trying to appeal to our humanitarian instincts to try to coerce or co-opt us into providing concessions.  Furthermore this reinforces the beliefs of those who advocate sanctions relief in order to bring KJU to the negotiating table.  This can help drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance which is one of the critical lines of effort for the regime.

Also, note the comments on the public distribution system (PDS). It failed during the arduous march of the famine of the 1990s.  And it has been the market activity that replaced the PDS that has helped the people to survive.  But in the name of COVID defense the regime has cut off legal and illicit trade with China and this is severely impacting market activity.  It cannot be replaced by the PDS. 

Excerpts: “The World Food Program (WFP) said in a 2021 report that North Korea has had one "food crisis" and one "major food crisis" in the last five years, while also acknowledging there is limited reliable data for the country.

Peter Ward, an expert on the North Korean economy and contributor to NK Pro, told NK News that the official admission of a food crisis is rare, and signifies how difficult the situation is.

North Korean officials have spoke about guaranteeing distribution and processing of grain, which Ward told NK News sounds like a reintroduction of the public distribution system (PDS). The PDS was a ration system introduced during the Cold War to adequately provide for all citizens. It largely collapsed during the famine in the 1990s.

"It sounds like they're doubling down on the PDS, it's not clear exactly what they're going to do, but I do think that stricter control of the food system and the utilization of strategic food reserves or dumping strategic reserves into the PDS in the short run — with the hope that they can reopen the border in a couple of months and replenish their stocks with Chinese aid — is probably what's going on," Ward said.

 

10. Can Kim Jung Un Survive North Korea's Next 'Arduous March?'

The National Interest · by Mitchell Lerner · June 23, 2021

Probably.  Unless some outside forces want to push the regime through instability and to collapse.  But China will likely do everything it can to prevent the failure of hee regime.

Excerpts: “These lessons from the past carry a warning for those who see opportunity in the current situation. As it has in the past, the Kim family will likely emerge from this crisis just as firmly in control as it has been for decades. Signs are already suggesting a similar playbook is being engaged. As conditions worsen, a domestic crackdown is underway, as is a campaign to lobby verbal assaults against its traditional enemy across the Pacific. More provocative steps can be expected to follow, designed largely for domestic consumption as a means of rallying the people behind their leaders and re-directing their sense of grievance away from the Korean shores.

In the end, then, the North’s future seems to promise a selfish and perfidious stability at the top and a painful instability for everyone else. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

11.  North Korea: The long-awaited fallout of summit diplomacy

lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu

Perhaps after three meetings with an American president KJU thinks he can demand to only meet with a US president. 

But I don't think he will ever agree to a summit unless it includes significant  sanctions relief up front.  And that is what KJU is trying to do - push the US toward sanctions relief in the hope that the administration will realize the only way for diplomacy to advance is through giving concessions.   And the push for concessions has an added longer term strategic benefit for the regime and that is it can help to drive a wedge in the alliance. 

Conclusion: “North Korea must now decide its next step. South Korea is willing to offer a big upfront “payment” to restart the process, but international sanctions have long been an obstacle, and the US looks unlikely to budge. If Trump could offer huge initial concessions to North Korea and the summits still failed, Pyongyang sees no need to quickly agree to Biden’s outreach at a much cheaper price with even lower odds of success. North Korea may be exploring ways to nudge Biden towards increasing the rewards by hinting it is not against dialogue altogether. But the latest moves are yet another reminder that when it comes to diplomacy with North Korea, money talks.

 

 

12. Kim not exaggerating the food shortage; it’s bad

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · June 24, 2021

Yes, he is not exaggerating it but he is exploiting it.

 

13. ＜Breaking News Inside N. Korea＞ Markets in turmoil across the country. Trading suspended as food prices hit year high and fears of what will happen next grow.

asiapress.org

A failed economy caused by KJU's decisions.  And it is made worse because there is no mechanism to solve these problems.

 

14.  North Korea ramps up crackdowns on "non-socialist and anti-socialist behavior" in border region

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 24, 2021

I stand corrected.  The regime believes it does have a way to solve its problems: through more ideological training. 

 

15.   S. Korea, U.S. agree to be ready for 'concrete' action if N. Korea responds to dialogue offer: source

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 24, 2021

Of course, KJU wants to see the concrete action before he will agree to talks.

 

16. Seoul city OKs relocation plan of U.S. embassy in Gwanghwamun to former USFK site

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · June 24, 2021

I wonder how the Koreans with anti-American sentiment will react to this.  Wil see a sustained protest presence? Although the location is in a very small section of the old Camp Coiner I think most Koreans probably believe all of Yongsan is being returned. 

 

17. Relocation of U.S. embassy to Yongsan gets closer

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Harry Kazianis · June 24, 2021

Embassy rendering and map at the link.

 

18. North Korea Has Collapsed: The Headline You Don't Want to Ever See

19fortyfive.com · by Harry Kazianis · June 23, 2021

Yes, be careful what you wish for.  But it is a real possibility that must be addressed with prior preparation.  As Cohen and Gooach wrote, all military failure (and I would include national security failures) result from a failure to learn, a failure to adapt, and a failure to anticipate.  Not enough policy makers and planners are anticipating this possible contingency.

 

--------------

 

The Coming of War 

The First Assaults 

In spite of a year of continuous psychological and political pressure and a number of military false alarms, the actual invasion of South Korea on 25 June 1950 came as a surprise. Many of the KMAG advisors and ROKA officers and men were on passes and spending the weekend in Seoul and other towns. Of the four divisions and one regiment assigned to the defensive positions south of the 38th Parallel, only four regiments and one battalion were actually at the front. The remainder were located in positions well to the rear.1 

 

Early on the morning of the 25th, elements of the ROK 17th Regiment stationed on the Ongjin Peninsula received heavy small arms fire from the North Korean Border Constabulary brigade facing them across the Parallel. (Map I) About 0400 high-explosive artillery and mortar shells began to fall on the ROK lines in increasing numbers.2 For over an hour the North Koreans continued a tremendous barrage. After the initial stunning shock, the ROK defenders rallied and returned fire, but, as dawn broke with overcast skies at 0530, elements of the North Korean (N.K.) 6th Division passed through the Border Constabulary and attacked in force. Soon they had annihilated an entire ROK battalion and had compelled the remnants of the 17th Regiment to fall back toward the sea.3

-Military Advisors in Korea: KMAG in Peace and War, by Major Robert K. Swayer

 

Paik Sun Yup (1920–2020) was only twenty-nine years old when the war broke out in Korea in 1950, but he was already a colonel and the commander of the First Division of the army of the Republic of Korea (ROK; South Korea). On the scene from the first day of conflict, Paik would be one of the principal players in the war until its end three years later. A highly talented military leader, he had been trained as a soldier in Manchuria, a large territory in northern China, and had served in the Manchurian army in World War II (1939–45). During the Korean War, Paik became Korea's first four-star general.

...

On the day of the invasion, however, Paik had been away from the ROK First for ten days, attending infantry school in Seoul. When he learned of the attack, he hurried to ROK headquarters. He soon learned that a good portion of his division had been given leave while he was away. When he got to the battlefront he found his Thirteenth Regiment fighting well, although just beginning an orderly withdrawal. The Eleventh Regiment, which had been on reserve, was beginning to muster its soldiers and appear on the scene. But the Twelfth Regiment had been almost entirely wiped out near the border town of Kaesong.

- From a review of  From Pusan To Panmunjom: Wartime Memoirs Of The Republic Of Korea's First Four-Star General

 

"History teaches that wars begin when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap"

-Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1.  Saudi Operatives Who Killed Khashoggi Received Paramilitary Training in U.S.

2.  FDD | Fixing Shortcomings in the Senate’s Endless Frontier Legislation

3. A Credible Deterrent to Chinese Cyber Attacks

4. China Has Stopped Biding Its Time

5. Biden blew a chance for a win in his meeting with Putin

6. America’s Syrian Allies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine

7. SECDEF backs change in military sex assault prosecution

8. The case for a defense budget that focuses more on China, less on climate change

9. Lessons from the Korean War: The US Will Not Be Able to Abandon Taiwan

10. Joe Biden Has Abandoned Afghanistan. No Summit Can Change That.

11. Joint Chiefs warn against bill aimed at revamping military justice system

12. Biden rounds out his Pentagon team with Russia expert Celeste Wallander

13. Afghan Says He Spied for CIA. Now That He Wants to Flee to U.S., He Can’t Prove It.

14. China has declared information warfare against America — Biden must respond vigorously

15. The Military Has a Watchdog for Stopping Extremism. Now, It Wants Teeth -- and Independence

16. Episode 49: Armstrong on the Smith-Mundt Act

17. Study finds sex assault risk in Army highest at Fort Hood

18. 7,000 troops died in the Post-9/11 wars. A staggering 30,000 died by suicide

19. War Memorials, Monuments . . . and Deterrence?

20. Destroyer Makes Sixth Taiwan Strait Transit During Biden Administration

21. U.S. Military Training Document Says Socialists Represent “Terrorist” Ideology

22. Apple Daily, Pro-Democracy Newspaper in Hong Kong, Says It Will Close

23. Retiring U.S. Army Special Forces colonel appointed as VMI commandant

 

1. Saudi Operatives Who Killed Khashoggi Received Paramilitary Training in U.S.

The New York Times · by Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes, and Michael LaForgia · June 22, 2021

Training foreign military and security personnel is big business for some contractors. I expect there will be new regulations and directives for oversight and vetting for foreign personnel in reaction to this.

 

2. FDD | Fixing Shortcomings in the Senate’s Endless Frontier Legislation

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton · June 22, 2021

Excerpt: “Having passed in the Senate, USICA now moves to the House, where its fate is unclear. In drafting their own bill, House legislators would be wise to reassess proposed NSF investments, to ensure taxpayer dollars are spent advancing cutting-edge science, in keeping with China’s planned investments in strategic sectors. The House should also revisit the security-related gaps in USICA’s current language, with the goal of strengthening transparency and accountability surrounding U.S. research funding and intellectual property. Ignoring these critical issues sets a troubling precedent and will do little to enhance America’s long-term comparative advantage over Beijing – sustained economic performance based on genuine competition.

 

3. A Credible Deterrent to Chinese Cyber Attacks

usni.org · by Norman Friedman · June 22, 2021

Excerpt:  “Can the United States actually hack into the Chinese social computer system? Any answer must be very secret. But for a deterrent to work, its target must have at least a sense of vulnerability. It is possible that merely discussing this seriously will impact the Chinese government.

 

4. China Has Stopped Biding Its Time

WSJ · by William A. Galston

Excerpts: “A lesson of the past few years is that there is little the U.S. can do to change China’s domestic policy. We cannot persuade or force its leaders to abandon their drive for technological and military superiority, to decrease the state’s role in the economy or to respect human rights. We must focus—as a country and as the leader of democratic alliances—on what we can do to strengthen ourselves.

Recent bipartisan moves in the House and Senate to increase investment in important technologies are a promising start. It remains to be seen whether we can agree on the investments and strategic decisions that an effective military response to the Chinese challenge will require—and whether we can restore a sense of common purpose across partisan lines without which such a response cannot be sustained.

 

5. Biden blew a chance for a win in his meeting with Putin

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

Excerpts: “This brings us back to our chronic inability to understand Russian rulers. President Obama thought America’s quarrel with Mr. Putin could be sorted out by pressing a toy button labeled “reset” (with the word misspelled in Russian). He was mistaken.

President Trump thought flattery would turn Mr. Putin into his good buddy. It didn’t.

Mr. Biden believes Mr. Putin is eager to “make progress on our shared goals of ensuring predictability in the strategic sphere” and avoid “a new Cold War.” C’mon, man, that’s malarkey!

Here’s the deal: Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is not “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” He’s a former KGB colonel with czarist appetites and Stalinist ambitions. Until and unless President Biden gets that, he can’t begin to shape a successful policy toward Russia and its ruler.

 

6. America’s Syrian Allies Deserve the COVID-19 Vaccine

Foreign Policy · by David Adesnik and Seth J. Frantzman · June 22, 2021

Excerpts: “Although honoring the United States’ debt to its Syrian allies has value of its own, the vaccination campaign would also demonstrate to people across the Middle East the tangible value of working with the United States rather than depending on Russia or Iran. A successful vaccination effort in northeast Syria would also resonate globally as the United States builds a coalition to pressure China for greater transparency about the pandemic’s origins while contesting Beijing’s influence within the WHO. An important precedent for a vaccination campaign in northeast Syria is the White House’s decision to send 2,500,000 doses to Taiwan, which is facing a vaccine blockade by China. After visiting Taiwan earlier this month, U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth commented: “How do you decide to choke off another nation in a pandemic like that? It’s inhumane.” Assad is choking off northeast Syria in precisely the same manner.

Northwest Syria—the other region of the country that remains outside of Assad’s control—may become the next victim if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to veto the U.N. Security Council’s re-authorization of aid shipments to the region via the Turkish border. A trickle of COVAX aid is now arriving in northwest Syria, but since the initiative is under the auspices of the U.N., a Russian veto next month would shut it down. In that event, the United States should ask its European partners to lead a vaccination campaign in the northwest to complement a prospective U.S. campaign in the northeast.

The United States spends billions of dollars each year to contain the spread of HIV/AIDS worldwide. This effort, known as the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, has saved millions of lives and built deep reservoirs of goodwill toward the United States. The George W. Bush administration launched the program and quickly garnered solid bipartisan support. Biden’s commitment to COVAX deserves similar support, but he should recognize the program falls far short in its ability to reach places like northeast Syria. Although its caliphate no longer exists, the Islamic State has transitioned to guerrilla operations, which the SDF continues to fight with U.S. support. The United States still needs its allies in the region—and those allies need vaccines.

 

7. SECDEF backs change in military sex assault prosecution

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · June 22, 2021

Excerpts: “The independent review panel on Monday presented Austin with an expansive set of recommendations to combat sexual assault in the military, including prevention, command climate, victim care and support.

“Generally they appear strong and well-grounded,” Austin said in his statement. “I have directed my staff to do a detailed assessment and implementation plan for my review and approval.”

Austin said he will present his recommendations to President Joe Biden in the coming days. But he also noted that the changes will require additional personnel, funding and authorities. The ones that can be done under existing authority will be give priority, he said, and other changes may take more time and will need help from Congress.

“As I made clear on my first full day in office, this is a leadership issue. And we will lead,” he said. “Our people depend upon it. They deserve nothing less.”

 

8. The case for a defense budget that focuses more on China, less on climate change

Defense News · by Rep. Mike Rogers and Rep. Ken Calvert · June 22, 2021

Excerpts: “The bipartisan National Defense Strategy Commission was very clear: to fully implement the National Defense Strategy, overcome threats from China and other adversaries, and recover from austere budgets in the Obama years, we need to grow our defense spending by three to five percent above inflation from 2022-2025. This year’s defense budget should be above the rate of inflation and entirely focused on deterring the threats from near peer adversaries. Instead, this budget, should it pass in its current form, would cede our military superiority to China and return us to a hollow force, unable to respond to events around the world, whether it’s conflict or humanitarian missions.

While disappointing, the budget numbers are no surprise. President Biden has an impeccable track record of foreign policy failures over the past 40 years. He was the architect of the 2011 troop withdrawal in Iraq, which created the power vacuum that allowed the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria to overtake 40 percent of Iraq. The rise of ISIS required us to return to Iraq, a mistake we fear he is likely repeating in Afghanistan. His precipitous exit from Afghanistan with no plan to conduct counter terrorism operations, secure our diplomatic corps, and protect the 17,000 Afghan interpreters that helped us over the last two decades is setting the stage for another national security crisis.

 

9. Lessons from the Korean War: The US Will Not Be Able to Abandon Taiwan

Global Taiwan · by Ben Lowsen

Conclusion: “The main point: It is tempting for the US to back away from potentially difficult commitments like defending Taiwan, but as we learned in the Korean War, the US will have little choice if China attacks. It should therefore make itself as ready as possible.

 

10. Joe Biden Has Abandoned Afghanistan. No Summit Can Change That.

19fortyfive.com · by Michael Rubin · June 22, 2021

Wow. Michael Rubin pulls no punches.

 

11. Joint Chiefs warn against bill aimed at revamping military justice system

Axios · by Kierra Frazier

 

12. Biden rounds out his Pentagon team with Russia expert Celeste Wallander

Axios · by Hans Nichols

 

13. Afghan Says He Spied for CIA. Now That He Wants to Flee to U.S., He Can’t Prove It.

WSJ · by Jessica Donati, Ehsanullah Amiri and Michelle Hackman · June 22, 2021

Perhaps that is because the CIA's security procedures to protect its recruited agents are effective. There should be no way to prove it using open source information. A terrible Catch 22 for this person.

 

14. China has declared information warfare against America — Biden must respond vigorously

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · June 22, 2021

Excerpts: “Now that many in the West have had their eyes opened to the multidimensional China threat, Beijing has created the very “ganging up against China” that it long feared. So its answer is to double down on its aggressive policies and rhetoric and charge that it is only responding to others’ assaults. As Lu succinctly put it, “It is them who are the real aggressors and not us. We never actively attack or provoke others. What we do is justified defence to safeguard our own interests.” Such paranoia or deceit is as much in the CCP’s DNA as it was in Nazi Germany’s and the Soviet Union’s.

Lu did utter one incontrovertible reality — yet one too few in the West seem to recognize — when he said, “The public opinion war is a strength of the West but a weakness for us.” He was right, but not for the reason he offered: “We need to have long-term planning, just like Chairman Mao talked about the protracted war,” and more diplomats, media workers and academics to carry out the project.

The West has an inherent advantage because it is easier and more persuasive to tell the truth. Beijing’s having more people tell lies more efficiently will not succeed in this information age — unless the West is as derelict as it has been in the past in telling its story, warts and all, and exposing the absolute evil of the communist dictatorship.

Lu said, “Our style has changed and you need to get used to it.” Let the West’s own information war begin in earnest. It beats the shooting kind.

 

15. The Military Has a Watchdog for Stopping Extremism. Now, It Wants Teeth -- and Independence

military.com · by Stephen Losey · June 22, 2021

We had better be careful.

 

16. Episode 49: Armstrong on the Smith-Mundt Act

Information Professionals Podcast-Cognitive Crucible

If you want to understand the real history and implications of Smith-Mundt, I recommend you listen to Matt Armstrong here.

 

17.  Study finds sex assault risk in Army highest at Fort Hood

expressnews.com · by Sig Christenson · June 21, 2021

My comments in the article.

My complete comments on reading the RAND report here:

“I have to say that this is of course troubling and the findings are really interesting. However, I am not sufficiently well versed in data analysis to judge the efficacy of the report though I have no basis on which to dispute anything. My sense is that the way data is reported (or more importantly not reported) we probably still do not have anywhere near the big picture but we certainly have enough to see that we still face terrible problems in the areas of sexual harassment and sexual assault.

I really hate to seem flippant but the most important finding in this report is about leadership. I know it is cliché to say that this is a leadership problem but that is what the data seems to point to:

"Finally, our exploration of the group characteristics associated with higher and lower risk showed that where the unit and leadership climate is better, soldiers face lower sexual assault risk and lower sexual harassment risk. This evidence can be used to design interventions to improve workplace climate, especially for those clusters of soldiers where risk is higher than expected and climate ratings are poor."

This is the final conclusion on page 70. In my opinion, it is leadership that will solve or more practically reduce this problem because there is not total prevention of such horrendous acts by what have to be considered deranged people or people with no moral compass and no respect for human dignity. Good leadership is the best way to prevent harassment and assault but good leadership is required to deal with it professionally and correctly when it happens. We cannot write this off as inevitable because it cannot be totally prevented but when it happens we have to deal with it and reinforce and redouble our leadership efforts.

I wish I had some deeper insights for you but there is nothing in this report that jumps out at me that describes the silver bullet that will prevent or reduce this scourge. I wish I could find something. But in the end this is a leadership issue and leaders have to be held responsible and accountable. But that does not mean leaders have to be relieved with every instance of harassment and assault. Patterns may require this and how leaders handle the situation when harassment and assaults occur must be judged. Knee jerk responses or one size fits all responses are not helpful. It is leadership up and down the chain of command that must address this.

 

18. 7,000 troops died in the Post-9/11 wars. A staggering 30,000 died by suicide

taskandpurpose.com · by David Roza · June 22, 2021

Staggering is right. What a tragedy.

Now if I am sitting in Russia or China and I am assessing this I might ask myself how I could contribute to this? Can I use social media to make this problem worse? Can I exploit this problem to influence national leadership decision making? Can I use this problem to drive the public to become dissatisfied with the national leadership?

Of is the fact that so few citizens actually serve in the military that this does not generate public sentiment against decision makers who send our sons and daughters to war? Or do I just follow Napoleon and observe that one should not interrupt his enemy when he is making a mistake?

 

19. War Memorials, Monuments . . . and Deterrence?

news.usni.org · by Sam LaGrone · June 22, 2021

An interesting perspective.

Excerpts: “So how should an effective war memorial-deterrent signal be deployed in practice? Certainly new war memorials will be dedicated and rededicated in the future in both the United States and around the world. Those memorials should be designed and dedicated in ways that honor sacrifice, dignify survivors, and celebrate willingness to fight for democratic values. It may be appropriate for policymakers to use domestic war memorial dedications as venues to announce new policies to counter emerging threats from great power competitors. It may even be appropriate for policymakers to invest time and resources into the war memorial events of our allies and partners to signal commitments to extended deterrence or mutual defense agreements.

Deeds, not words, make the difference. Signaling credible commitment to deter an adversary requires that the sender demonstrate the capability and will to impose costs—even if the sender incurs some amount of cost themselves. Policymakers can spend time and relatively little money on war memorials to simultaneously signal willingness to incur additional costs and link the current threat to past conflict outcomes. Deliberate planning is needed to manage the inherent risks of collateral damage from offending unintended audiences. If war memorials and monuments can serve their principal purpose of honoring past sacrifice and also deter conflicts of the future by signaling credible commitment, then integrating them into deterrent messaging is the strategically sound and right thing to do.

 

21. U.S. Military Training Document Says Socialists Represent “Terrorist” Ideology

The Intercept · by Ken Klippenstein · June 22, 2021

 

22.  Apple Daily, Pro-Democracy Newspaper in Hong Kong, Says It Will Close

The New York Times · by Tiffany May and Austin Ramzy· June 23, 2021

I am reminded of this statement in an OpEd in the Daily NK By Min Xin Pei. 

That is perhaps why the Singapore model has lost its luster in the Xi era, whereas the North Korean model – totalitarian political repression, a cult of the supreme leader, and juche (economic self-reliance) – has grown more appealing. True, China has not yet become a giant North Korea, but a number of trends over the last eight years have moved the country in that direction.

 

23. Retiring U.S. Army Special Forces colonel appointed as VMI commandant

wfxrtv.com · by Colleen Guerry · June 22, 2021

 

-----------------

 

"BRAC originated in the 1960s under President Kennedy as the Department of Defense (DOD) had to realign its base structure after World War II and the Korean War. At that time, the DOD was able to close bases without congressional interference, and 60 bases were closed in the 1960s."

- Sam Brownback

 

"Since the Korean War, U.S. and South Korea have established an enduring friendship with shared interests, such as denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, combating aggression abroad and developing our economies."

-Charles B. Rangel

 

"Wars of necessity are essentially unavoidable. They involve the most important national interests, a lack of promising alternatives to the use of force, and a certain and considerable price to be paid if the status quo is allowed to stand. Examples include World War II and the Korean War.” 

- Richard N. Haass

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. FDD | North Korea Likely Behind Hack Targeting South Korean Nuclear Submarine

2.  Regime Collapse in North Korea Would Be Catastrophic

3. South needs to allow information to cross the border: U.S. analyst

4. Why Does Moon Keep Sucking up to N.Korea?

5. North Korea Gives the U.S. the Cold Shoulder on Nuclear Talks

6. Biden's N.Korea Policy and Kim Jong-un's Silence

7. Just How Stable Is North Korea?

8. N.Korea's currency, commodity markets in turmoil as borders stay closed - reports

9. ‘Smaller drills won’t earn lasting inter-Korean detente’

10. North Korea Sends Mixed Signals on Talks with US

11. North Korea anticipated to solidify ties with China

12. [Editorial] Building momentum: US, North Korea are edging closer to reopening denuclearization talks

13. Kim Yo Jong ridicules Washington’s proposal for dialogue

14. US remains committed to engaging with North Korea: State Department

15. Seoul nuke envoy stresses need to resolve N.K. issue through dialogue

16. North Korean man arrested in Onsong County for smuggling along North Korea-China border

17. No human rights violations found at N. Korean defectors' debriefing center since 2014: NIS chief

18. N. Korea, China hold rare joint symposium to mark anniversaries of leaders' reciprocal visits

19. S. Korea lodges complaint with Japan over military video describing Dokdo as disputed territory

20. N. Korea rules out possibility of contact with U.S.

21. Washington doesn't budge from latest outreach to Pyongyang

 

1. FDD | North Korea Likely Behind Hack Targeting South Korean Nuclear Submarine

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · June 22, 2021

From my colleague Mathew Ha. Beware the regime's "all-purpose sword."

 

2. Regime Collapse in North Korea Would Be Catastrophic

The National Interest · by Meriel Hahn · June 22, 2021

It is interesting to see the current discussion of the possibility of north Korea regime collapse. I am accused of being a long time "collapsist" and chastised because the regime has not collapsed. But like the title of this article, we never predicted when or if north Korea would collapse., only that if it does it will be catastrophic (and therefore we need to have contingency plans). Also it is not something we should necessarily wish for nor should we assume it will be clean and easy or even like the fall of the Communist Bloc and East Germany.  One of the concerns we have with collapse that the authors do not address is that the conditions that lead to instability and regime collapse could also lead Kim to make the decision to go to war as the only alternative to collapse. As counterintuitive as it is to us, it could be assessed as Kim's only path to potential survival. And it is made worse by Kim's lack of military experience and by the lack of experience of all his senior military advisors all of whom (save I think one) are political generals and not career professional military personnel. They may be telling him what they think he wants to hear regarding the actual correlation of forces and combat power in the South and if Kim doesn't understand the strength of the ROK military and the combined alliance military power he may more quickly and easily come to make the decision to execute his campaign plan in order to survive.

While I do wish, like the authors, that a better or more humane regime would emerge in north Korea, I am not holding my breath.  The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

We have been worried about this for a couple of decades:

Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military (1996)

When North Korea Falls (2006)

 

3. South needs to allow information to cross the border: U.S. analyst

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · June 22, 2021

Perhaps the Koreans will listen to Mr. Bandow. They certainly do not listen to us.

We laid out our recommendations for information and influence activities here: 

 

4. Why Does Moon Keep Sucking up to N.Korea?

english.chosun.com

A bold and brutal question for the moon administration. There is no doubt that President Moon desires peace and reconciliation and he wanted to be the President who made that happen. I respect his desire for peace as we should all want that. Unfortunately, he is so passionate that he is willing to try to bring "peace at any cost." Continuing down this path could eventually lead to great cost in blood, treasure, and freedom for the Korean people in the South. We have to deal with the brutal Kim family regime as it really is and not as we would wish it to be (though we must continue to give it the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community - just not at the expense of the security of the ROK and the interests of the US).

 

5. North Korea Gives the U.S. the Cold Shoulder on Nuclear Talks

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong

Excerpts: “In the absence of a deal, Pyongyang grew its potential stockpile of nuclear weapons to an estimated 40 to 50 warheads, according to an early 2021 estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank. That is up from 30 to 40 the prior year, according to the group’s assessment, which is based on the country’s estimated production of fissile material. The Pentagon, in separate assessments, have also warned of the Kim regime’s continuing weapons expansion.

Nonetheless, North Korea has remained relatively quiet since the start of the pandemic, sealing off its borders and conducting just a handful of shorter-range missile tests. One factor for Pyongyang’s hesitancy about nuclear talks is internal turmoil caused by Covid-19 fears, flood damage and economic pain, which Mr. Kim has called the country’s “worst-ever situation.”

But Mr. Kim’s remarks last week suggest North Korea may once again be willing to engage externally through diplomacy or confrontation after spending much of the past 18 months focused on domestic challenges, said Alex Wong, a former senior State Department official during the Trump administration who worked on North Korea issues. But Washington shouldn’t reward Pyongyang for simply engaging, he added.

“North Korea should be willing to talk no matter what to discuss if there’s a deal possible,” said Mr. Wong, who is now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute.

 

6. Biden's N.Korea Policy and Kim Jong-un's Silence

english.chosun.com · by Victor Cha

Victor Cha provides "six theories" for north Korea's silence. He also outlines his assessment of the Biden administration policy and says it seems to be working.

 

7.  Just How Stable Is North Korea?

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · June 22, 2021

A big unknown. The only way to make a judgement is to assess indicators and warnings of instability. The only comprehensive list of indications and warnings was produced by Robert Collins in his seminal work "Patterns of Collapse" and the "Seven Phases of North Korean Collapse." I doubt that few analysts at USFK J2 and CFC C2 know that the indicators and warnings they are using to assess north Korean instability and collapse came from Bob's in-depth research and his deep knowledge of north Korea and the Kim family regime.

 

8. N.Korea's currency, commodity markets in turmoil as borders stay closed - reports

channelnewsasia.com · by Josh Smith

The decision to close the border may have saved the regime from COVID but it is at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people.

The paradox is that while it may have saved the regime from COVID it might also be responsible for instability and the potential for what may come next.

 

9. ‘Smaller drills won’t earn lasting inter-Korean detente’

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · June 22, 2021

"Lasting?" I do not think it will earn any detente.

While the ROK and the US may not require any preconditions for talks the ROK Unification minister is offering the north preconditions by cancelling or scaling back exercises.

Excerpts: “This time, the Moon Jae-in government wants to hold smaller drills to engage Pyongyang, whose leader, Kim Jong-un, said last week that his country should be ready for both talks and confrontation. Kim has called on Seoul and Washington to drop the drills he describes as hostile policy for dialogue to take place.

“I think we’re in perfect agreement. We will also meet with North Korea ‘anytime, anywhere, without preconditions,’” Unification Minister Lee In-young said Tuesday, quoting Sung Kim, the US special representative for North Korea, who responded to Kim Jong-un by saying the US was likewise ready to engage.

I certainly hope we are NOT in perfect agreement when it comes to conducting exercises. Cancelling, postponing, or scaling back exercises in the hopes that it will bring Km to the table is a fantasy and fool's errand.

 

10. North Korea Sends Mixed Signals on Talks with US

learningenglish.voanews.com · June 23, 2021

Finally a report that stresses the signals from the north are mixed and that Kim Yo Jong's and the party's statements are vague and open ended.

 

11. North Korea anticipated to solidify ties with China

The Korea Times  · by Nam Hyun-woo  · June 23, 2021

No surprise here. These ties undermine ROK/US alliance efforts and provide the north with necessary support politically and economically.

 

12. [Editorial] Building momentum: US, North Korea are edging closer to reopening denuclearization talks

koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · June 22, 2021

A somewhat hopeful assessment (in the title at least) with an important caution to the Moon administration. 

Excerpts: “Despite its professed willingness to engage in dialogue with Pyongyang anytime and anywhere, the Biden administration has made it clear that there cannot be a deal that falls short of ensuring the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the North.

US-led international sanctions on the impoverished regime cannot be expected to be significantly eased let alone lifted until complete denuclearization is achieved or guaranteed. Washington may move to impose additional sanctions on the North with regard to its dire human rights conditions if Kim continues to stick to his nuclear ambitions.

In this vein, it should be noted that South Korea needs to be careful not to go too far in trying to forge what it sees as an atmosphere conducive to getting Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table.

Aides to President Moon Jae-in have recently proposed not only providing humanitarian assistance for the North but also restoring major inter-Korean economic projects, which could run the risk of violating the global sanctions regime against Pyongyang.

Seoul would be out of step with Washington if it attempts to push the boundaries of the sanctions framework. This would only undermine efforts to build momentum toward resuming talks with the North.

 

13. Kim Yo Jong ridicules Washington’s proposal for dialogue

donga.com · June 23, 2021

As noted the assessment of the statements from Kim Yo Jong and the Workers Party of Korea as all over the map.

 

14. US remains committed to engaging with North Korea: State Department

The Korea Times · June 23, 2021

Does this fall on the regime's deaf ears? Mr. Price is right to not overreact to statements from the north.

 

15. Seoul nuke envoy stresses need to resolve N.K. issue through dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 22, 2021

 

16.  North Korean man arrested in Onsong County for smuggling along North Korea-China border

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 23, 2021

Even the head of a trading company. Note the corruption as well as the desperation.

I think the worst people, the true ideologues and true believers, must be the inminban (head of the local village political apparatus). They are little people who think they wield much power on behalf of the regime.

 

17. No human rights violations found at N. Korean defectors' debriefing center since 2014: NIS chief

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 23, 2021

I should hope not.

 

18. N. Korea, China hold rare joint symposium to mark anniversaries of leaders' reciprocal visits

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 23, 2021

 

19.  S. Korea lodges complaint with Japan over military video describing Dokdo as disputed territory

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 23, 2021

 

20. Historic alliance: Marriage between US, South Korean army officers is first of its kind

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · June 23, 2021

A unique human interest story.    We have always said the alliance is like a marriage! Now we have one.  And they probably have a future in Microsoft advertisements - fell in love over PowerPoint.  I feel bad for their respective personnel assignments officers!

 

20. N. Korea rules out possibility of contact with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 23, 2021

A fairly definitive statement..... for now. This means one thing - no concessions = no talks and is surely an attempt to drive a wedge between the ROK and US. The engager pundits the ROK and US are going to double down on their arguments that we must cancel exercises and lift sanctions.

 

I ask this rhetorically: In support of the Kim family regime strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

 

21. Washington doesn't budge from latest outreach to Pyongyang

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim· June 23, 2021

Keep up the fire. Stay strong!

 

----------------

 

"BRAC originated in the 1960s under President Kennedy as the Department of Defense (DOD) had to realign its base structure after World War II and the Korean War. At that time, the DOD was able to close bases without congressional interference, and 60 bases were closed in the 1960s."

- Sam Brownback

 

"Since the Korean War, U.S. and South Korea have established an enduring friendship with shared interests, such as denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, combating aggression abroad and developing our economies."

-Charles B. Rangel

 

"Wars of necessity are essentially unavoidable. They involve the most important national interests, a lack of promising alternatives to the use of force, and a certain and considerable price to be paid if the status quo is allowed to stand. Examples include World War II and the Korean War.” 

- Richard N. Haass

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. Four times as many troops and vets have died by suicide as in combat, study finds

2. ‘This May Not Be The Big One’: Army Scientists Warn of Deadlier Pandemics to Come

3. Afghanistan's air force is a rare U.S.-backed success story. It may soon fail

4. An international anti-corruption court is needed to deter kleptocrats

5. FDD | What Happened at the Biden-Putin Summit? Not Much.

6. America Shall Be Judged By How We Leave Afghanistan — By Allies, Foes, and History by Angus King

7. US Companies Won’t Pay to Prepare for Cyber Attacks. Congress Must Step In

8. As Afghanistan war nears end, details emerge on how Predator drone revolutionized warfare

9. Disinformation, Annexation, & Deterrence: Why the CCP Is More Likely to Subvert Taiwan Than invade

10. Finding an alternative to the Belt Road Initiative: Statesman contributors

11. Opinion | The Vacuous Phrase at the Core of Biden’s Foreign Policy

12. ‘Gray zone’ intrigue may derail Russia-Japan cooperation

13. Failure to intervene in Myanmar same as giving tacit consent to junta's rule

14. ‘The Last G7’: Satirical cartoon mocking bloc’s attempt to suppress China goes viral - Global Times

15. China’s ambassador to the US to leave after eight years

16. The Incompleteness of the Fulbright Paradox

17. US-China rivalry is extending from Earth into space. That poses a challenge to American dominance

18. Xi’s Rewriting of History Won’t Stay in China

19. The 'Trojan Parachute Club' Were the Army's First Combat HALO Jumpers

20. Op Pocket Change: The Delta Force operation to rescue U.S. POWs allegedly left behind after the Vietnam War

21. U.S. investigating possible ties between Roger Stone, Alex Jones and Capitol rioters

22. Unmasking the far right: An extremist paid a price when his identity was exposed online after a violent clash in Washington

 

1. Four times as many troops and vets have died by suicide as in combat, study finds

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 21, 2021

What an unbelievable statistic. What can be done?

 

2. ‘This May Not Be The Big One’: Army Scientists Warn of Deadlier Pandemics to Come

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp

Not good news.

 

3. Afghanistan's air force is a rare U.S.-backed success story. It may soon fail

bakersfield.com · by Nabih Bulos

Excerpts: “Jack McCain, a former adviser to the Afghan air force who helped train UH-60, said the pace was "not sustainable."

"You're going to burn your people and your aircraft out if you don't prep their replacements and get them out of the fight," he said, adding that flying in Afghanistan was akin to "flying in Vietnam every single day and with nowhere else to go."

Despite those issues, few dispute that the AAF gives the government a crucial edge over the Taliban — or that it's a relative success story in an overall spotty U.S. record.

"The Afghans did something the U.S. would never ask of their own pilots: from never touching a Blackhawk to flying operational missions in under a year, which is flabbergasting," McCain said.

The AAF, Michel said, was "the single most important capability that we have done in our investment of people and resources."

But the air force is under constant threat. On Wednesday, an antitank missile slammed into the side of a Blackhawk near the airport in Ghazni, a stop that pilots had been forced to make every day to replenish fast-depleting ammunition stores. The pilots survived. The Blackhawk couldn't be repaired; 46 remain.

 

4. An international anti-corruption court is needed to deter kleptocrats

Financial Times · by Elaine Dezenski · June 21, 2021

Excerpts: “More than one hundred former heads of state, cabinet ministers, legislators, intergovernmental officials, business leaders and representatives of civil society have signed a declaration in support of the creation of an International Anti-Corruption Court (IACC) to prosecute corrupt officials when their governments are unable or unwilling to do so.

The court would bring together expert investigators, experienced international prosecutors and judges to preside over complex criminal proceedings involving transnational financial networks. Although kleptocrats will not willingly sign up their countries, the IACC could still have jurisdiction to recover, repatriate and repurpose stolen assets with the co-operation of major financial centres.

The sanctioning, defunding and potential imprisonment of kleptocrats by an IACC would act as a deterrent and allow them to be replaced by principled officials. Honest multinational corporations would have better opportunities to compete for public contracts, and a court would help businesses resist corrupt overtures.

We need an IACC that dramatically curtails the freedom with which kleptocrats pillage national resources and hide their wealth around the world. Only with a global system to hold officials to a higher standard will ethical politicians and businesses have a chance to promote liberty, prosperity and security.

 

5. FDD | What Happened at the Biden-Putin Summit? Not Much.

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · June 18, 2021

Excerpts: “It’s true that Russia has concerns about jihadism flowing out of Afghanistan’s borders, through Central Asia and into Chechnya and Dagestan. Al-Qaeda has worked with Chechen jihadists since the 1990s. and ISIS also has a significant contingent of members and leaders from the Caucasus region.

But throughout the past few years, the Russians haven’t “helped” on Afghanistan. They have undermined the Afghan government by hosting the Taliban for talks in Moscow. The Russians have also likely provided a low level of arms and other support to the Taliban insurgents, who are still closely allied with al-Qaeda. So any assistance from the Russians would be a real about-face.

Curiously, President Biden didn’t say anything during his press conference about the alleged Russian bounties offered for American soldiers. This story is murky – and the U.S. intelligence community still can’t point to any actual attacks carried out on Americans as a result of the purported bounties.

The press made a big deal out of it when President Trump didn’t raise the reporting with Putin. But it appears Biden wasn’t asked if he brought it up during the summit. The Biden administration has said that the Russians should answer some of its questions concerning the reported bounty scheme. However, we are left to wonder what President Biden said about this issue and how Putin responded.

 

6. America Shall Be Judged By How We Leave Afghanistan — By Allies, Foes, and History by Angus King

militarytimes.com · by Angus King · June 22, 2021

 

7. US Companies Won’t Pay to Prepare for Cyber Attacks. Congress Must Step In

defenseone.com · by Corye Douglas

 

8. As Afghanistan war nears end, details emerge on how Predator drone revolutionized warfare

Stars and Stripes · by Gary Robbins · June 20, 2021

 

9.  Disinformation, Annexation, & Deterrence: Why the CCP Is More Likely to Subvert Taiwan Than invade

lawfareblog.com · by Libby Lange and Doowan Lee · June 22, 2021

Conclusion: “Given the prevalence of the CCP’s subversive efforts in Taiwan, a politically driven annexation campaign poses a far greater threat to Taiwanese sovereignty than a military invasion. In fact, military threats are likely aligned with cyber and disinformation operations to enable the latter while undermining the Tsai administration. This pattern was especially pronounced during the coronavirus pandemic. Such efforts could help lay the groundwork to preemptively undermine Taiwan’s future leadership, set to be elected in 2024. Moreover, a subversive campaign would make a U.S. military intervention far more difficult. That same strategic dilemma stymied a U.S. or NATO response to the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

What are the main efforts that Taiwan and the U.S. can undertake to ensure no annexation happens? Both internal resilience in Taiwan and extended deterrence from the U.S. should work together. The Tsai administration has tirelessly worked to increase the resilience of the Taiwanese government and civil society. The DAP (Digital Accountability Project) is a great example. The Tsai administration has worked with industry and civil society to dampen the proliferation of foreign disinformation. Taiwan has taken proactive measures to mitigate CCP subversion and sabotage.

The U.S. should focus on imposing disproportionate costs to the prospect of a PLA invasion to ensure Taiwan can continue to strengthen its resiliency and economy. Steering the Quad Alliance to embrace Taiwan would make a PLA invasion appear much costlier than it is now. Extended deterrence does not rely solely on military means. The U.S. can also help Taiwan with additional diplomatic efforts. For instance, the U.S. should consider providing coronavirus vaccines to the remaining 15 countries that maintain a formal diplomatic relationship with Taiwan in order to hinder the CCP’s efforts to isolate the Tsai administration. It can solicit and develop multilateral ties to increase the perceived cost of the CCP’s crisis engineering against Taiwan. The U.S. should also enhance interoperability and intelligence sharing with Taiwan on cyber and information operations. The recently introduced Ensuring American Global Leadership and Engagement (EAGLE) Act, which calls for the establishment of Digital Connectivity and Cybersecurity Partnerships to boost resiliency, would be an optimal channel. Working with Taipei to expose and counter the CCP’s ongoing cyber and information operations would also go a long way to keep the Taiwanese political process unmolested by illicit meddling from the CCP.

 

10. Finding an alternative to the Belt Road Initiative: Statesman contributors

straittimes.com · by Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy and Shreya Gulati

A positive view from India.

 

11. Opinion | The Vacuous Phrase at the Core of Biden’s Foreign Policy

The New York Times · by Peter Beinart · June 22, 2021

The phrase is "rules-based international order."

A progressive pundit criticizes Biden foreign policy.

 

12. ‘Gray zone’ intrigue may derail Russia-Japan cooperation

asiatimes.com · by Aditya Pareek · June 22, 2021

Excerpt: In conclusion, although the Miyasaka X-37B spy scandal and the Sojitz-MegaFon Arctic Connect sagas are only two anecdotal pieces of evidence, they signal a worsening trend of increased rifts and shrinking avenues of cooperation between Russia and Japan.

 

13. Failure to intervene in Myanmar same as giving tacit consent to junta's rule

globaltimes.cn 

I would like to see someone lay out a campaign for intervention by someone. ASEAN?  How would that work?

 

14. ‘The Last G7’: Satirical cartoon mocking bloc’s attempt to suppress China goes viral - Global Times

globaltimes.cn 

Some interesting Chinese propaganda.

If the photo does not come through please go to this link: 

 

15.  China’s ambassador to the US to leave after eight years

The Guardian · by Helen Davidson · June 22, 2021

One thing about the Chinese: They seem to value continuity and the long game.

 

16. The Incompleteness of the Fulbright Paradox

mountainrunner.us · by  Matt Armstrong

Matt Armstrong provides some additional analysis, historical context, and perspective to Charles' King's recent Foreign Affairs article on Senator Fulbright.

 

17.  US-China rivalry is extending from Earth into space. That poses a challenge to American dominance

CNN · by Nectar Gan and Ben Westcott

 

18. Xi’s Rewriting of History Won’t Stay in China

WSJ · by Paul Wolfowitz and Bill Drexel

Excerpts: “In our experiences as a teacher and a student, we have observed that too many young Americans don’t know enough history to argue effectively with their Chinese counterparts, even in the freedom of an American university. Many now consider it politically incorrect even to try.

But pushing back against Chinese communist falsehoods is essential. U.S. information efforts in Western Europe during the early Cold War and in Poland and the Soviet Union in the 1980s had an advantage: People could readily discern the clumsiness of crude Soviet propaganda. They turned instead to Radio Free Europe, along with the BBC, for real news.

Those Western information efforts were successful because they became a recognized source of truth. Against the technologically sophisticated and more dangerous miseducation of Chinese youth, America needs to launch an even stronger effort to argue for the truth. More important, it needs Americans who know the history and why it matters.

 

19. The 'Trojan Parachute Club' Were the Army's First Combat HALO Jumpers

coffeeordie.com · by Matt Fratus · June 17, 2021

Some interesting Special Forces history.

 

20. Op Pocket Change: The Delta Force operation to rescue U.S. POWs allegedly left behind after the Vietnam War

audacy.com · by Jack Murphy · June 21, 2021

Another interesting piece of SOF history

 

21. U.S. investigating possible ties between Roger Stone, Alex Jones and Capitol rioters

The Washington Post · by Spencer S. Hsu and Devlin Barrett · February 20, 2021

Hmm.....

 

22. Unmasking the far right: An extremist paid a price when his identity was exposed online after a violent clash in Washington

The Washington Post · by Robert Klemko · June 21, 2021

Unmasking the far right: An extremist paid a price when his identity was exposed online after a violent clash in Washington

 

----------------

 

"When I grew up, in Taiwan, the Korean War was seen as a good war, where America protected Asia. It was sort of an extension of World War II. And it was, of course, the peak of the Cold War. People in Taiwan were generally proAmerican. The Korean War made Japan. And then the Vietnam War made Taiwan. There is some truth to that."

- Ang Lee

 

"South Korea first allowed women into the military in 1950 during the Korean War. Back then, female soldiers mainly held administrative and support positions. Women began to take on combat roles in the 1990s when the three military academies, exclusive to men, began accepting women."

- Kim Young-ha

 

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Kim Yo Jong Releases Press Statement

2.  North Korea rejects US attempts to resume talks

3. Joint military exercise must be properly scaled to meet threats: Pentagon spokesman

4.  Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to North Korea

5. Moon to meet US envoy on North Korea at Cheong Wa Dae

6. S. Korea, U.S. agree to consider ending 'working group' forum on N. Korea policy

7. N.Korea's Borders Still Tightly Closed

8. North Korea is planning its largest military parade to date for Kim Il Sung's birthday next year

9.  Kim sister’s cryptically says US missed the point

10. North Korea's Kim Jong Un asks officials to strengthen military might: Report

11. A Battle Joined: North Korean Totalitarianism Versus South Korean K-Pop

12. China and North Korea show united front as US offers talks

13. How North Korea perfected counterfeiting $100 bills

14. Grain-Short North Korea Forces Housewives to ‘Volunteer’ for Farm Work

15. Inflation and Money Confusion Accompanies Kim Jong Un’s “Tense Food” Remarks

16. Documents on South's naval vessels hacked

17. Moon says S. Korea to keep expanding role on key global issues

18. Unification minister calls for active, agile efforts to bring N. Korea back to dialogue

19. South Korea nuclear secrets exposed via VPN vulnerability

20. EXPLAINED: Food Shortage Is Nothing New For North Korea, But Even Kim Jong-Un Is Worried By Current Crisis

21. A Revival of North Korean Communism?

 

1. Kim Yo Jong Releases Press Statement

KCNA · June 22, 2021

There must be some deep meaning behind this:  dreams, comfort, and disappointment.

 

2. North Korea rejects US attempts to resume talks

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun Woo · June 22, 2021

Kim Yo Jong's statement leaves a lot of room for interpretation and of course Kim Jong-un might make a statement that seems to contradict it.  I would not get too excited about this.

On the other hand, it is so obvious what the regime is trying to do.  It is trying to provide rationale and justification for the appeasers to argue the US and international community must provide concessions, primarily some sort of sanctions relief in order for the regime to agree to talks. This would be a huge mistake because one, while the regime might come to the table it will not negotiate in good faith because, two, it will assess its political warfare strategy as successful and it will continue to execute it which means playing Kim's long con. We must see the regime for what it is and not be duped by Kim Yo Jong and those in the ROK and US who counsel appeasement by cancelling exercises or lifting sanctions.

 

3.  Joint military exercise must be properly scaled to meet threats: Pentagon spokesman

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2021

The Press Secretary is leaving room for various training scenarios but he is providing the military position that we must train to be ready to meet the threats.  The ROK MND statement is pointing toward scaling back or cancelling the August exercise.  Doing so would be a huge mistake not only for readiness, OPCON transition, and deterrence, but would also big a win for the regime on multiple levels (weakening the combined military, driving a wedge in the alliance, getting concessions, and successful execution of its political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.)

Excerpts: “The Defense Department spokesman said he had no changes in military training to announce, only noting the U.S. "constantly" reviews and assesses its military training programs "given the strategic environment" of the Korean Peninsula.

In Seoul, South Korea's defense ministry said that close consultations are under way to fix the timing, scale and other details of an annual summertime combined exercise that the two countries have held usually in August.

"South Korea and the U.S. will make a decision on the exercise after taking into consideration all related factors, such as the COVID-19 situation, the maintenance of a combat readiness posture, the transfer of the wartime operational control, and supporting diplomacy for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," ministry spokesperson Boo Seung-chan told a regular briefing on Tuesday.

 

4. Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to North Korea

Office of the President · June 22, 2021

The administration is going to hold the line on north Korea. This reinforces the US positions developed over time - implementation of UN Security council resolutions, nuclear and missile programs, murder of 46 South Korean sailors, human rights and repressive activities of the north, global illicit activities, and proliferation.

This single statement outlines all that is wrong with Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime.  For those who advocate lifting sanctions, which behaviors outlined below do you wish to condone?  Please justify conditioning such behavior while hoping the regime will come to the negotiating table.

For those who think sanctions do not work, consider this tweet.

 

Paul Massaro

@apmassaro3

Jun 20

Don’t focus too much on academic arguments on whether sanctions “work” or not—sanctions block bad actors from accessing our shores and financial system and provide a measure of justice to those denied it. That means they work

 

5. Moon to meet US envoy on North Korea at Cheong Wa Dae

The Korea Times · June 22, 2021

Oh, to be a fly on the wall.

 

6.S. Korea, U.S. agree to consider ending 'working group' forum on N. Korea policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 22, 2021

This is disappointing and demonstrates a real lack of maturity of South Korean political leaders. I specifically call out the political leaders because the ROK professional diplomats and national security experts know the importance of and value the working group and more importantly of coordinating alliance strategy. .But political propaganda from progressives and would-be north Korean appeasers tainted this working group from the beginning.  And yes I am definitely calling out the propaganda of the politicos - they play right into the hands of the Kim family regime..  Hopefully a new working group can be established with new and better "branding" so that alliance strategy can be properly coordinated.

I wrote the following in 2004:

Beyond the Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for the Korean Peninsula

Key Points:

 ·      Ensure that an effective defensive capability remains in place until the “Korea Question” is resolved

·      Method for developing a combined strategy

(1) Consultations at the political and military level between the ROKG and USG. 

(2) Increased high level contacts. 

(3) Establishment of a combined planning group (Korea Strategy Group (KSG)) with permanent NSC level members that meet on a rotating basis in Washington and Seoul.

Repair the alliance: This will take a concerted effort by the President and senior US leadership.  Must come to agreement on the divergent ROK and US policies (sunshine policy versus regime change).  They are not mutually exclusive if you do not use the Iraq/Afghanistan models for regime change. 

Proposed mutually acceptable strategic end state: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

 

            This end state implies regime change.  But it must come from within.  Most importantly while the US desires regime change it has not prepared for it.  Fundamental to the strategy is that near term crises must be managed (and exploited for possible opportunities) while it prepares the foundation for a post Kim Family Regime era.

...

Reunification is the only acceptable long term outcome that can ensure stability on the Peninsula. The goal is noble and right but the path to get there is literally and figuratively a minefield and it will take a concerted and coordinated effort by the alliance to get there. Therefore a structure is required for the development and management of the strategy for navigating the minefields.  Both nations at the National Security Council level should establish a Korea Strategy Division (KSD) to develop, refine and adjust their country’s strategies as well as manage their respective nations’ actions within the strategic framework.  Together these Divisions will form the Korea Strategy Group (KSG).  This will have permanently assigned members from each KSD co-chaired by each nation’s senior member and will meet on a quarterly basis rotating between both capitals.  Most important is that the members will have direct communications capability to maintain close coordination in all areas.  

The KSG will be chartered to manage and ensure synchronization of all elements of national power in the pursuit of the established end state.  Together they will manage strategic level Peninsula crises and seek opportunities for implementing elements of the strategy. Each KSD will serve as the focal point for their respective nation in which to ensure synchronization of all actions by its elements of national power.  One of the subtle purposes of the KSG is to bring together ROK and US national security professionals in a disciplined process that will allow transparency and prevent misunderstanding between the allies.  The process of developing and managing the strategy will cause issues to be thoroughly staffed and coordinated and the increased contact will create an environment more conducive to cooperation and understanding.

ROK and US individual policies are not intended to be identical.  In fact, it is probably better that they are different as the differences may be able to be exploited to create opportunities with the North.  At times the combination of hard line and engagement (“good cop, bad cop”) may be the right way to create opportunities.”  The most important thing is for the actions to be synchronized. 

 

7. N.Korea's Borders Still Tightly Closed

english.chosun.com · June 22, 2021

The Korean people in the north continue to suffer at the hands of KimJong-un's deliberate policy decisions.

 

8. North Korea is planning its largest military parade to date for Kim Il Sung's birthday next year

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · June 22, 2021

It takes a long time to plan a good parade :-) 

I wonder what they intend to show us at this one?

So they are going to spend the next year focusing on a parade.

I am reminded of Murphy's Laws: No combat ready unit has ever passed inspection (a parade). No inspection (parade) ready unit has ever passed combat.

Go ahead Kim Jong-un, expend time and precious human resources on preparing for a parade.

 

9. Kim sister’s cryptically says US missed the point

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · June 22, 2021

Cryptically is right.

 

10. North Korea's Kim Jong Un asks officials to strengthen military might: Report

americanmilitarynews.com · by Hindustan Times, New Delhi · June 21, 2021

Some circular reporting here.

 

11.  A Battle Joined: North Korean Totalitarianism Versus South Korean K-Pop

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 20, 2021

I can find some agreement with Mr. Bandow here especially in that we both believe we need to execute a sophisticated, comprehensive, and professional information and influence activities or psychological operations campaign.   The alliance has the superior message.

I wrote about the use of K-Dramas here in 2016: "NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR THREAT: Can South Korean-made TV dramas prepare the North for reunification?" 

 

12. China and North Korea show united front as US offers talks

SCMP · Sarah Zheng · June 21, 2021

They remain "closer than lips and teeth." 

 

13. How North Korea perfected counterfeiting $100 bills

Boing Boing · June 21, 2021

A six minute video at the link.

I recall a briefing from some Secret Service officials who said with more than a little tongue in cheek they could tell if a bill was a north Korean counterfeit if it had no flaws and looked better than an actual US $100 bill.  The north is damn good at counterfeiting.

 

14. Grain-Short North Korea Forces Housewives to ‘Volunteer’ for Farm Work

rfa.org  · by Albert Hong

Excerpts: “Mobilization of housewives, however, is likely a violation of human rights, according to Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of the Washington-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK).

“In North Korea, especially after the Arduous March, housewives have made great efforts and sacrifices for the survival of their families,” Scarlatoiu told RFA, using a translation of the Korean term to refer to the 1994-1998 North Korean famine which killed millions.

“Now that even these housewives are said to be forcibly mobilized so strictly like this, I think North Korean women are being subjected to human rights violations very seriously,” said Scarlatoiu.

Forcing citizens to “volunteer” as labor for government projects is very common in North Korea.

 

15. Inflation and Money Confusion Accompanies Kim Jong Un’s “Tense Food” Remarks

38 North · by William Brown · June 21, 2021

One of our nation's very few experts on the north Korean economy.  He probably understands the north Korean economy better than the economists of the Kim family regime.

An important conclusion here: Kim is not without tools to fight monetary instability but so far has been reluctant to use them, likely perceiving them as weakening his hold on the state. For example, he could maneuver to reduce sanctions, encourage non-sanctioned exports and relieve budget pressures by selling some state property to domestic or foreign buyers, and, most importantly, opening-up wage reforms to improve the country’s abysmal productivity. At some point, even now, inflation may look to him to be a bigger enemy to stability—a term he used in his speech last week—than the United States.

 

16.  Documents on South's naval vessels hacked

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Park Yong-Han and Michael Lee · June 21, 2021

north Korean cyber espionage using the all purpose sword.

 

17. Moon says S. Korea to keep expanding role on key global issues

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 22, 2021

And the ROK/US alliance and the QUAD and the G7 can help him do this.

 

18. Unification minister calls for active, agile efforts to bring N. Korea back to dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 22, 2021

Unfortunately the words of the Unification Minister are code for appeasement  - active and agile means cancel exercises and lift sanctions.

 

19.  South Korea nuclear secrets exposed via VPN vulnerability

techradar.com · by Mayank Sharma · June 21, 2021

 

20.  EXPLAINED: Food Shortage Is Nothing New For North Korea, But Even Kim Jong-Un Is Worried By Current Crisis

news18.com · June 21, 2021

How did this happen?  Kim Jong-un's poor policy decisions.

 

21. A Revival of North Korean Communism?

thediplomat.com · by ISOZAKI Atsuhito · June 22, 2021

Kim Il-sung "borrowed" from communism to develop his ruling ideology. and develop his "guerrilla dynasty."  

I think Adrian Buzo'sanaylysis still holds true:

“In the course of this struggle against factional opponents, for the first time Kim began to emphasize nationalism as a means of rallying the population to the enormous sacrifices needed for post-war recovery.  This was a nationalism that first took shape in the environment of the anti-Japanese guerrilla movement and developed into a creed through the destruction of both the non-Communist nationalist forces and much of the leftist intellectual tradition of the domestic Communists.  Kim’s nationalism did not draw inspiration from Korean history, nor did it dwell on past cultural achievements, for the serious study of history and traditional culture soon effectively ceased in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea].  Rather, DPRK nationalism drew inspiration from the Spartan outlook of the former Manchurian guerrillas.  It was a harsh nationalism that dwelt on past wrongs and promises of retribution for “national traitors” and their foreign backers.  DPRK nationalism stressed the “purity” of all things Korean against the “contamination” of foreign ideas, and inculcated in the population a sense of fear and animosity toward the outside world.  Above all, DPRK nationalism stressed that the guerrilla ethos was not only the supreme, but also the only legitimate basis on which to reconstitute a reunified Korea. (emphasis added).”

But I think Kim Jong-un will continue to follow Kimilsungism.

Excerpts: “The “theory of a socio-political organism (in North Korea)” that Kim Jong-il advocated in the 1980s has also made a comeback. People are given life by their parents, but the life of the revolutionary, or political life, is bestowed by the leader. The former is limited while the latter is more important, as the leader can grant eternal life. It thus goes with saying that the logic is that you owe your loyalty to your leader, before even to your biological parents. Meanwhile, starting this year, Kim Jong-un has started calling himself “Suryeong” (Supreme Leader), just as Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il did.

There have also been calls to revive the spirit of the “Chollima Movement,” which Kim Il-sung advocated in 1956. This is a movement for increased production that is likened to a legendary horse (Chollima) that can run a thousand miles in a day, a symbol of the North Korean economy outperforming South Korea’s. Recently, Korean Central Television even broadcast a special program on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the building of the Chollima Statute.

It will be worth watching to see if these concepts take hold going forward. (One might recall here that the Kim Jong-il administration declaring that it would “open the gate to a thriving nation in 2012” and then make no further reference to this as that year approached.)

One likely aim of the Kim Jong-un administration’s revival of so many slogans from decades past is to restore the glory of the Kim Il-sung era, when North Korea did in fact for a time outstrip South Korean in economic development.

But at the same time, it underscores the regime’s inability to come up with anything new, forcing it to revive old policy.

What does that mean for North Korea and U.S. relations? Pyongyang recognizes that economic sanctions are here to stay, and so it is trying to go it alone. As it does so, it will wait patiently for the day Washington is prepared to make concessions.

 

------------

 

"When I grew up, in Taiwan, the Korean War was seen as a good war, where America protected Asia. It was sort of an extension of World War II. And it was, of course, the peak of the Cold War. People in Taiwan were generally proAmerican. The Korean War made Japan. And then the Vietnam War made Taiwan. There is some truth to that."

- Ang Lee

 

"South Korea first allowed women into the military in 1950 during the Korean War. Back then, female soldiers mainly held administrative and support positions. Women began to take on combat roles in the 1990s when the three military academies, exclusive to men, began accepting women."

- Kim Young-ha

 

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. Kim Yo Jong Releases Press Statement

2.  North Korea rejects US attempts to resume talks

3. Joint military exercise must be properly scaled to meet threats: Pentagon spokesman

4.  Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to North Korea

5. Moon to meet US envoy on North Korea at Cheong Wa Dae

6. S. Korea, U.S. agree to consider ending 'working group' forum on N. Korea policy

7. N.Korea's Borders Still Tightly Closed

8. North Korea is planning its largest military parade to date for Kim Il Sung's birthday next year

9.  Kim sister’s cryptically says US missed the point

10. North Korea's Kim Jong Un asks officials to strengthen military might: Report

11. A Battle Joined: North Korean Totalitarianism Versus South Korean K-Pop

12. China and North Korea show united front as US offers talks

13. How North Korea perfected counterfeiting $100 bills

14. Grain-Short North Korea Forces Housewives to ‘Volunteer’ for Farm Work

15. Inflation and Money Confusion Accompanies Kim Jong Un’s “Tense Food” Remarks

16. Documents on South's naval vessels hacked

17. Moon says S. Korea to keep expanding role on key global issues

18. Unification minister calls for active, agile efforts to bring N. Korea back to dialogue

19. South Korea nuclear secrets exposed via VPN vulnerability

20. EXPLAINED: Food Shortage Is Nothing New For North Korea, But Even Kim Jong-Un Is Worried By Current Crisis

21. A Revival of North Korean Communism?

 

1. Kim Yo Jong Releases Press Statement

KCNA · June 22, 2021

There must be some deep meaning behind this:  dreams, comfort, and disappointment.

 

2. North Korea rejects US attempts to resume talks

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun Woo · June 22, 2021

Kim Yo Jong's statement leaves a lot of room for interpretation and of course Kim Jong-un might make a statement that seems to contradict it.  I would not get too excited about this.

On the other hand, it is so obvious what the regime is trying to do.  It is trying to provide rationale and justification for the appeasers to argue the US and international community must provide concessions, primarily some sort of sanctions relief in order for the regime to agree to talks. This would be a huge mistake because one, while the regime might come to the table it will not negotiate in good faith because, two, it will assess its political warfare strategy as successful and it will continue to execute it which means playing Kim's long con. We must see the regime for what it is and not be duped by Kim Yo Jong and those in the ROK and US who counsel appeasement by cancelling exercises or lifting sanctions.

 

3.  Joint military exercise must be properly scaled to meet threats: Pentagon spokesman

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 22, 2021

The Press Secretary is leaving room for various training scenarios but he is providing the military position that we must train to be ready to meet the threats.  The ROK MND statement is pointing toward scaling back or cancelling the August exercise.  Doing so would be a huge mistake not only for readiness, OPCON transition, and deterrence, but would also big a win for the regime on multiple levels (weakening the combined military, driving a wedge in the alliance, getting concessions, and successful execution of its political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.)

Excerpts: “The Defense Department spokesman said he had no changes in military training to announce, only noting the U.S. "constantly" reviews and assesses its military training programs "given the strategic environment" of the Korean Peninsula.

In Seoul, South Korea's defense ministry said that close consultations are under way to fix the timing, scale and other details of an annual summertime combined exercise that the two countries have held usually in August.

"South Korea and the U.S. will make a decision on the exercise after taking into consideration all related factors, such as the COVID-19 situation, the maintenance of a combat readiness posture, the transfer of the wartime operational control, and supporting diplomacy for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," ministry spokesperson Boo Seung-chan told a regular briefing on Tuesday.

 

4. Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to North Korea

Office of the President · June 22, 2021

The administration is going to hold the line on north Korea. This reinforces the US positions developed over time - implementation of UN Security council resolutions, nuclear and missile programs, murder of 46 South Korean sailors, human rights and repressive activities of the north, global illicit activities, and proliferation.

This single statement outlines all that is wrong with Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime.  For those who advocate lifting sanctions, which behaviors outlined below do you wish to condone?  Please justify conditioning such behavior while hoping the regime will come to the negotiating table.

For those who think sanctions do not work, consider this tweet.

 

Paul Massaro

@apmassaro3

Jun 20

Don’t focus too much on academic arguments on whether sanctions “work” or not—sanctions block bad actors from accessing our shores and financial system and provide a measure of justice to those denied it. That means they work

 

5. Moon to meet US envoy on North Korea at Cheong Wa Dae

The Korea Times · June 22, 2021

Oh, to be a fly on the wall.

 

6.S. Korea, U.S. agree to consider ending 'working group' forum on N. Korea policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 22, 2021

This is disappointing and demonstrates a real lack of maturity of South Korean political leaders. I specifically call out the political leaders because the ROK professional diplomats and national security experts know the importance of and value the working group and more importantly of coordinating alliance strategy. .But political propaganda from progressives and would-be north Korean appeasers tainted this working group from the beginning.  And yes I am definitely calling out the propaganda of the politicos - they play right into the hands of the Kim family regime..  Hopefully a new working group can be established with new and better "branding" so that alliance strategy can be properly coordinated.

I wrote the following in 2004:

Beyond the Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for the Korean Peninsula

Key Points:

 ·      Ensure that an effective defensive capability remains in place until the “Korea Question” is resolved

·      Method for developing a combined strategy

(1) Consultations at the political and military level between the ROKG and USG. 

(2) Increased high level contacts. 

(3) Establishment of a combined planning group (Korea Strategy Group (KSG)) with permanent NSC level members that meet on a rotating basis in Washington and Seoul.

Repair the alliance: This will take a concerted effort by the President and senior US leadership.  Must come to agreement on the divergent ROK and US policies (sunshine policy versus regime change).  They are not mutually exclusive if you do not use the Iraq/Afghanistan models for regime change. 

Proposed mutually acceptable strategic end state: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

 

            This end state implies regime change.  But it must come from within.  Most importantly while the US desires regime change it has not prepared for it.  Fundamental to the strategy is that near term crises must be managed (and exploited for possible opportunities) while it prepares the foundation for a post Kim Family Regime era.

...

Reunification is the only acceptable long term outcome that can ensure stability on the Peninsula. The goal is noble and right but the path to get there is literally and figuratively a minefield and it will take a concerted and coordinated effort by the alliance to get there. Therefore a structure is required for the development and management of the strategy for navigating the minefields.  Both nations at the National Security Council level should establish a Korea Strategy Division (KSD) to develop, refine and adjust their country’s strategies as well as manage their respective nations’ actions within the strategic framework.  Together these Divisions will form the Korea Strategy Group (KSG).  This will have permanently assigned members from each KSD co-chaired by each nation’s senior member and will meet on a quarterly basis rotating between both capitals.  Most important is that the members will have direct communications capability to maintain close coordination in all areas.  

The KSG will be chartered to manage and ensure synchronization of all elements of national power in the pursuit of the established end state.  Together they will manage strategic level Peninsula crises and seek opportunities for implementing elements of the strategy. Each KSD will serve as the focal point for their respective nation in which to ensure synchronization of all actions by its elements of national power.  One of the subtle purposes of the KSG is to bring together ROK and US national security professionals in a disciplined process that will allow transparency and prevent misunderstanding between the allies.  The process of developing and managing the strategy will cause issues to be thoroughly staffed and coordinated and the increased contact will create an environment more conducive to cooperation and understanding.

ROK and US individual policies are not intended to be identical.  In fact, it is probably better that they are different as the differences may be able to be exploited to create opportunities with the North.  At times the combination of hard line and engagement (“good cop, bad cop”) may be the right way to create opportunities.”  The most important thing is for the actions to be synchronized. 

 

7. N.Korea's Borders Still Tightly Closed

english.chosun.com · June 22, 2021

The Korean people in the north continue to suffer at the hands of KimJong-un's deliberate policy decisions.

 

8. North Korea is planning its largest military parade to date for Kim Il Sung's birthday next year

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · June 22, 2021

It takes a long time to plan a good parade :-) 

I wonder what they intend to show us at this one?

So they are going to spend the next year focusing on a parade.

I am reminded of Murphy's Laws: No combat ready unit has ever passed inspection (a parade). No inspection (parade) ready unit has ever passed combat.

Go ahead Kim Jong-un, expend time and precious human resources on preparing for a parade.

 

9. Kim sister’s cryptically says US missed the point

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · June 22, 2021

Cryptically is right.

 

10. North Korea's Kim Jong Un asks officials to strengthen military might: Report

americanmilitarynews.com · by Hindustan Times, New Delhi · June 21, 2021

Some circular reporting here.

 

11.  A Battle Joined: North Korean Totalitarianism Versus South Korean K-Pop

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 20, 2021

I can find some agreement with Mr. Bandow here especially in that we both believe we need to execute a sophisticated, comprehensive, and professional information and influence activities or psychological operations campaign.   The alliance has the superior message.

I wrote about the use of K-Dramas here in 2016: "NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR THREAT: Can South Korean-made TV dramas prepare the North for reunification?" 

 

12. China and North Korea show united front as US offers talks

SCMP · Sarah Zheng · June 21, 2021

They remain "closer than lips and teeth." 

 

13. How North Korea perfected counterfeiting $100 bills

Boing Boing · June 21, 2021

A six minute video at the link.

I recall a briefing from some Secret Service officials who said with more than a little tongue in cheek they could tell if a bill was a north Korean counterfeit if it had no flaws and looked better than an actual US $100 bill.  The north is damn good at counterfeiting.

 

14. Grain-Short North Korea Forces Housewives to ‘Volunteer’ for Farm Work

rfa.org  · by Albert Hong

Excerpts: “Mobilization of housewives, however, is likely a violation of human rights, according to Greg Scarlatoiu, executive director of the Washington-based Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK).

“In North Korea, especially after the Arduous March, housewives have made great efforts and sacrifices for the survival of their families,” Scarlatoiu told RFA, using a translation of the Korean term to refer to the 1994-1998 North Korean famine which killed millions.

“Now that even these housewives are said to be forcibly mobilized so strictly like this, I think North Korean women are being subjected to human rights violations very seriously,” said Scarlatoiu.

Forcing citizens to “volunteer” as labor for government projects is very common in North Korea.

 

15. Inflation and Money Confusion Accompanies Kim Jong Un’s “Tense Food” Remarks

38 North · by William Brown · June 21, 2021

One of our nation's very few experts on the north Korean economy.  He probably understands the north Korean economy better than the economists of the Kim family regime.

An important conclusion here: Kim is not without tools to fight monetary instability but so far has been reluctant to use them, likely perceiving them as weakening his hold on the state. For example, he could maneuver to reduce sanctions, encourage non-sanctioned exports and relieve budget pressures by selling some state property to domestic or foreign buyers, and, most importantly, opening-up wage reforms to improve the country’s abysmal productivity. At some point, even now, inflation may look to him to be a bigger enemy to stability—a term he used in his speech last week—than the United States.

 

16.  Documents on South's naval vessels hacked

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Park Yong-Han and Michael Lee · June 21, 2021

north Korean cyber espionage using the all purpose sword.

 

17. Moon says S. Korea to keep expanding role on key global issues

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 22, 2021

And the ROK/US alliance and the QUAD and the G7 can help him do this.

 

18. Unification minister calls for active, agile efforts to bring N. Korea back to dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 22, 2021

Unfortunately the words of the Unification Minister are code for appeasement  - active and agile means cancel exercises and lift sanctions.

 

19.  South Korea nuclear secrets exposed via VPN vulnerability

techradar.com · by Mayank Sharma · June 21, 2021

 

20.  EXPLAINED: Food Shortage Is Nothing New For North Korea, But Even Kim Jong-Un Is Worried By Current Crisis

news18.com · June 21, 2021

How did this happen?  Kim Jong-un's poor policy decisions.

 

21. A Revival of North Korean Communism?

thediplomat.com · by ISOZAKI Atsuhito · June 22, 2021

Kim Il-sung "borrowed" from communism to develop his ruling ideology. and develop his "guerrilla dynasty."  

I think Adrian Buzo'sanaylysis still holds true:

“In the course of this struggle against factional opponents, for the first time Kim began to emphasize nationalism as a means of rallying the population to the enormous sacrifices needed for post-war recovery.  This was a nationalism that first took shape in the environment of the anti-Japanese guerrilla movement and developed into a creed through the destruction of both the non-Communist nationalist forces and much of the leftist intellectual tradition of the domestic Communists.  Kim’s nationalism did not draw inspiration from Korean history, nor did it dwell on past cultural achievements, for the serious study of history and traditional culture soon effectively ceased in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea].  Rather, DPRK nationalism drew inspiration from the Spartan outlook of the former Manchurian guerrillas.  It was a harsh nationalism that dwelt on past wrongs and promises of retribution for “national traitors” and their foreign backers.  DPRK nationalism stressed the “purity” of all things Korean against the “contamination” of foreign ideas, and inculcated in the population a sense of fear and animosity toward the outside world.  Above all, DPRK nationalism stressed that the guerrilla ethos was not only the supreme, but also the only legitimate basis on which to reconstitute a reunified Korea. (emphasis added).”

But I think Kim Jong-un will continue to follow Kimilsungism.

Excerpts: “The “theory of a socio-political organism (in North Korea)” that Kim Jong-il advocated in the 1980s has also made a comeback. People are given life by their parents, but the life of the revolutionary, or political life, is bestowed by the leader. The former is limited while the latter is more important, as the leader can grant eternal life. It thus goes with saying that the logic is that you owe your loyalty to your leader, before even to your biological parents. Meanwhile, starting this year, Kim Jong-un has started calling himself “Suryeong” (Supreme Leader), just as Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il did.

There have also been calls to revive the spirit of the “Chollima Movement,” which Kim Il-sung advocated in 1956. This is a movement for increased production that is likened to a legendary horse (Chollima) that can run a thousand miles in a day, a symbol of the North Korean economy outperforming South Korea’s. Recently, Korean Central Television even broadcast a special program on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the building of the Chollima Statute.

It will be worth watching to see if these concepts take hold going forward. (One might recall here that the Kim Jong-il administration declaring that it would “open the gate to a thriving nation in 2012” and then make no further reference to this as that year approached.)

One likely aim of the Kim Jong-un administration’s revival of so many slogans from decades past is to restore the glory of the Kim Il-sung era, when North Korea did in fact for a time outstrip South Korean in economic development.

But at the same time, it underscores the regime’s inability to come up with anything new, forcing it to revive old policy.

What does that mean for North Korea and U.S. relations? Pyongyang recognizes that economic sanctions are here to stay, and so it is trying to go it alone. As it does so, it will wait patiently for the day Washington is prepared to make concessions.

 

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"When I grew up, in Taiwan, the Korean War was seen as a good war, where America protected Asia. It was sort of an extension of World War II. And it was, of course, the peak of the Cold War. People in Taiwan were generally proAmerican. The Korean War made Japan. And then the Vietnam War made Taiwan. There is some truth to that."

- Ang Lee

 

"South Korea first allowed women into the military in 1950 during the Korean War. Back then, female soldiers mainly held administrative and support positions. Women began to take on combat roles in the 1990s when the three military academies, exclusive to men, began accepting women."

- Kim Young-ha

 

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill

Disrupting digital harms in Central Asia

Robert Muggah and Rafal Rohozinski 

Central Asia is the staging ground for a new digital Great Game. The key players include Russia, China, Europe, and the US, along with a rash of Central Asian actors. What happens there has implications not just for the region, but the future of the Internet. One of the reasons why Central Asia’s assuming more strategic importance is because of the digital transformation occurring across the region. Their digitalization is part of a deeper historical commitment to technology-driven modernization stretching back to the twentieth century Soviet Union. Today, the region is registering a dramatic increase in internet roll-out, mobile broadband connections and social media users.

Central Asia (Public Domain – Creative Commons CC0)

Central Asia’s digitalization is generating opportunities, but also risks. The onboarding of Central Asians is occurring amidst a complex backdrop of top-down secular authoritarianism, bottom-up agitation for more progressive democracticization and a contest between moderate and hardline Islam. Digital transformation, then, could accelerate digital authoritarianism. Indeed, there is a real push from China, Russia and the US to shape the wider technology environment, with profound implications for the future of civic freedoms and digital rights. And as more Central Asians go online, their exposure to digital harms, including violent extremism, is increasing.

New SecDev Group-led research is shining a light on the scope, scale and dynamics of online violent extremism across Central Asia. For one, while persistent, violent extremist actors have a modest online footprint: a small number of entities are disproportionately responsible for a high proportion of harmful content. Related, extremist groups are using third party networks to amplify their reach and moving between platforms to avoid take-downs. What’s more, their appeals are linked to regional grievances, from Afghanistan and Syria to Muslim grievances in France and the treatment of Uyghurs in China.

A managed risk approach is critical to prevent, disrupt and reduce online violent extremism in Central Asia. Too often, interventions are narrowly targeted, having comparatively limited impact and potentially making the problem worse. The spread of violent extremism is connected fundamentally to wider geopolitical, regional and domestic factors such as the continued repression of minorities in Xinjiang and the impending withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan. These tensions will continue to stoke grievances and serve as a focal for radicalization. Ultimately, intervention strategies must account for these political realities in their design.

While appealing, police-led interventions and platform-led strategies focused on taking down content will not successfully deter online violent extremism. To the contrary: they can potentially incentivize extremist groups to move to more obscure platforms and adapt their strategies, generating new challenges. Interventions designed to disrupt online extremist groups and remove radical content need to be mindful of the unintended consequences of aggressive take-downs. For example, overzealous efforts can undermine media independence, ramp-up indiscriminate surveillance and trigger anti-terrorist legislation and operations that curb rights.

Several Central Asian governments are actively exploring ways to adopt more stringent surveillance and censorship laws and to make use of artificial intelligence and other intrusive surveillance technologies ostensibly to “fight terrorism.” There is a danger that digital transformation and smart city initiatives could lead to indiscriminate surveillance, with dangerous implications for civic and human rights. What is needed now more than ever are approaches that do not focus reservedly on violent extremism, but rather emphasize the prevention and reduction of digital harms. European and US partners have a key role to play here, not least in strengthening inclusive digital transformation, promoting independent and high quality online media and bolstering digital literacy.

One way to disrupt the risks of digital harms is by applying lessons from public health. This begins by continuously diagnosing the online threats, mitigating risk factors, reinforcing protective factors, and testing out measures to evaluate their outcomes. The US, Europe, and multilateral organizations can work with Central Asian public authorities, social media platforms and representatives of civil society to double down on inclusive digital transformation that simultaneously manages digital harms and short circuits the transition towards digital authoritarianism. This will require applying a wide range of measures in partnership with gatekeepers—trusted brokers—to deliver safer and secure online environments.

For Additional Reading

Rafal Rohozinski and Robert Muggah, “Central Asia’s Growing Internet Carries New Risks of Violence.” United States Institute of Peace. 15 June 2021. 

Kumar Bekbolotov, Robert Muggah, and Rafal Rohozinski, “Jihadist Networks Dig In on Social Media Across Central Asia.” Foreign Policy, 11 November 2020.