News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Full text of Xi Jinping's speech on the CCP's 100th anniversary

2. IMF: United States of America Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission

3. Remembering My Boss, Donald Rumsfeld

4. How Rumsfeld Deserves to Be Remembered

5. Naval Special Warfare Completes Transformative Leader Assessment Program Pilots

6. Lawmaker Wants to Grill Officers on Critical Race Theory Before Approving Promotions

7. ‘Black Hawk Down’ Veterans to Receive 58 Silver Stars

8. IntelBrief: The Role of Local Police in the New U.S Strategy on Countering Domestic Terrorism

9. Terrorists become increasingly ‘innovative’, in a world shaken by COVID-19

10. Release of the 2021 Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Report

11. The Free World vs. China and Friends: It’s ideology, stupid

12. The People We’re Leaving Behind in Afghanistan

13. Iranian Disinformation Effort Went Small to Stay Under Big Tech’s Radar

14. Biden’s lack of ambassador picks leaves him on a pace that’s trailing Trump

15. Worried about ‘wokeness’? There’s a lot more to be outraged about in the US military

16. Will America Defend Taiwan? Here’s What History Says

17. What Terrorism Will Look Like in the Near Future

18. US-UK Warn Of New Worldwide Russian Cyberespionage

19. Is the military teaching critical race theory? Not really

20. AllStances™: Critical Race Theory: Perspectives, Pro Con, Arguments, For And Against, Critical Race Theory, CRT, Race And Racism, Racism, Anti-Racism, Race

21. Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China

22. U.S. Leaves Largest Afghan Base as Full Withdrawal Nears

23. Satellite Photos Show China Expanding Its Mysterious Desert Airfield

24. Opinion | The Chinese Communist Party’s anniversary is Hong Kong’s funeral

25. Back to the Future: Resetting Special Operations Forces for Great Power Competition

 

1. Full text of Xi Jinping's speech on the CCP's 100th anniversary

asia.nikkei.com

 

2. IMF: United States of America Concluding Statement of the 2021 Article IV Mission

IMF · July 1, 2021

Some very interesting data and analysis. 

 

3. Remembering My Boss, Donald Rumsfeld

Daily Signal · by Steven Bucci

There is a lot of negative commentary with the passing of Secretary Rumsfeld. Here is a different perspective. I never met the man so I cannot judge.

Conclusion: “The bottom line is this: Reasonable people can disagree about the policy choices made by the George W. Bush administration in general, and by Rumsfeld in particular, but this man, forever known to me as simply The Boss, was a man of integrity, character, leadership, and real grit. Time does not allow for a full obit here; I will leave that to others. The man I knew, the man who shepherded the American military through the 9/11 attacks, the man dubbed the American Secretary of War for his strength and service to our nation, will never be forgotten.

He was the embodiment of the “Man in the Arena” to whom President Teddy Roosevelt referred in his famous remarks at the Sorbonne in 1910. He lived, fought, and passed with a quiet power that his critics cannot match.

Rest in peace, Boss. It was an honor to serve beside you.

 

4. How Rumsfeld Deserves to Be Remembered

The Atlantic · by George Packer · July 1, 2021

And another perspective on Secretary Rumsfeld.

Conclusion: “By the time Rumsfeld was fired, in November 2006, the U.S., instead of securing peace in one country, was losing wars in two, largely because of actions and decisions taken by Rumsfeld himself. As soon as he was gone, the disaster in Iraq began to turn around, at least briefly, with a surge of 30,000 troops, a policy change that Rumsfeld had adamantly opposed. But it was too late. Perhaps it was too late by the early afternoon of September 11.

Rumsfeld had intelligence, wit, dash, and endless faith in himself. Unlike McNamara, he never expressed a quiver of regret. He must have died in the secure knowledge that he had been right all along.

 

5. Naval Special Warfare Completes Transformative Leader Assessment Program Pilots

dvidshub.net

This looks like a good program.  

Excerpts: “We place emphasis on superior leadership as our principal asymmetric advantage over the nation’s adversaries and embrace the mission imperative to evolve the ways we assess the character, cognitive and leadership attributes within the force,” said Rear Adm. H. W. Howard III, commander, Naval Special Warfare Command. “We recently accelerated the development of the NLAP pilot to rapidly experiment with an approach that increases officer and enlisted selection precision, development opportunities, and leader pairing decisions – and addresses cognitive biases that can adversely impact selection decisions.”

This round of NLAP pilots consisted of four separate convenings with two in Little Creek, Virginia and two in Coronado. Naval Special Warfare Center, which has been charged with running the assessment program, screened over 90 participants eligible for either executive officer or command master chief positions. In the future, the four-day process held on the premises will apply to all levels of leadership from major command to O-5 command as well as tactical level commanders and senior enlisted advisors.

 

6. Lawmaker Wants to Grill Officers on Critical Race Theory Before Approving Promotions

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

Sigh....I have a lot more faith in all our military personnel - from General/Admiral to Private/Airman/Seaman. I am not at all afraid of them being exposed to all ideas and theories. If we are afraid that they are going to be indoctrinated by the "wrong" ideas then we certainly do not respect their intellectual abilities or trust them as fellow Americans. This line of reasoning says we basically do not trust our military personnel to think critically and objectively 9f they do not think along the ideas that are "approved.") If Senator Cotton wants to go back to the old way and focus on our oath, ideals, and Constitution then he should start with the ideal that we do not ban ideas just because they do comport with someone's worldview.

By including this type of training, Cotton said, military schools are becoming too similar to civilian graduate schools.

“Every minute they dedicate to some critical race theory primer could have been...better dedicated to...studying Chinese military doctrine, things that we actually expect and need our military to know,” Cotton said.

Cotton, who served in Iraq as an Army infantry officer, argued that equality training should go back to how it was when he was in uniform.

“Most of my buddies who contact me feel they just want to know why we can’t just go back to what we all took an oath to, our founding principles...or for that matter why these training sessions can’t just replay Martin Luther King’s dream speech that we should all be judged by the content of our character, not the color of our skin?”

 

7. ‘Black Hawk Down’ Veterans to Receive 58 Silver Stars

defenseone.com · by Caitlin M. Kenney

That seems to be a very high number of Silver Stars but I have no doubt each one is deserved.

 

8. IntelBrief: The Role of Local Police in the New U.S Strategy on Countering Domestic Terrorism

thesoufancenter.org · June 29, 2021

Excerpt: “Further compounding this challenge is the reality that there exists within American policing the same domestic threat that this new national strategy seeks to address: armed white supremacists misusing patriotic trappings, and groups such as the Three Percenters or the Oath Keepers. Discussing this issue openly and honestly remains arduous. Making matters more difficult, local police departments are always struggling with staffing issues to manage the staggering level of 911 emergency calls for services (most of which are not crime-related, but that still require a police response). Some departments will argue that the strategy is simply adding another priority to an overloaded list. However, it can be argued that the more positive progress is made on the non-law enforcement side of the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism, the less need there will be for law enforcement action. Until such progress is made, a significant need for local law enforcement involvement remains; many of the threat groups and actors are well-armed and present a real security threat. Moreover, building strong relationships with communities based on trust will be a critical component in ensuring that local law enforcement is well positioned to work closely with communities, local business, and federal partners. There is nothing easy or simple about countering this domestic threat; the task is as complicated as it is urgent.

 

9. Terrorists become increasingly ‘innovative’, in a world shaken by COVID-19

news.un.org · June 30, 2021

2+ minute video at the link. 

Conclusion: “As the Organization readies itself to mark the 15th anniversary of the UN Global Counter-terrorism Strategy to enhance national, regional and international efforts, the UN official said, “we should take comfort that this Counter-Terrorism Week has reinvigorated support for multilateralism”.

He described some “path-breaking” outcomes to be included in an upcoming resolution, which included countering the use of new technologies for terrorist purposes; tackling attacks based on racism and other forms of intolerance; and repatriating, reintegrating and rehabilitating children with links to foreign terrorist fighters.

In closing, Mr. Voronkov reassured the Member States of the UN’s “leadership and to support” and looked forward to the first Global Congress of Victims of Terrorism scheduled for December, and for the third UN Counter-Terrorism Week in June 2023.

 

10. Release of the 2021 Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Report

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken

The 43 page USG Women, Peace, and Security Congressional report report can be downloaded here.

 

11. The Free World vs. China and Friends: It’s ideology, stupid

atlanticcouncil.org · by Kaush Arha · July 1, 2021

My graphic on the ideological conflict.

Excerpts: “It is important that this war of ideas be framed as a clash between the founding principles of the US government and the CCP—not their citizens. American and Chinese people have enjoyed a long and rich history of mutual benefit and respect, and that should endure. US ideals and security enabled China’s rise to be its global rival. But the goals of Xi and the CCP do not tolerate—let alone enable—any competition. That is the crux of the ideological war.

It is in the realm of ideology where China is most brittle and vulnerable—and the United States strongest and most resilient. By its own admission, in fact, the greatest threat to the Chinese Communist Party is ideology. The CCP abhors chaos and does all it can to erase it, while the resilient character of democracy shines in chaos. The democratic institutions of the Free World have been tested fiercely and found resilient. The last US president was impeached twice in one term and voted out of office. And on January 6, in the face of a rowdy mob, US legislators returned to the Capitol in the middle of the night to certify the election. In the battle of ideas, the United States is stronger because it leads by the will of the people against the state coercion of China.

The best ideological antidote to “socialism with Chinese characteristics” is democracies with Asian characteristics. It is the marvel of Indian democracy, the resolve of Taiwan, the strength of Japan and South Korea, the soundness of Australia and New Zealand, and the aspirations of movements and leaders in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Central Asia. And an expanded G10 gives new voice to these Asian democracies. There are no greater soldiers of democracy than the brave students of Tiananmen Square and Hong Kong, who were inspired by US ideals. To be worthy of their inspiration and its own founding principles, the United States should stand tall as democracy’s guardian.

 

12. The People We’re Leaving Behind in Afghanistan

The New Yorker · by Condé Nast · June 29, 2021

The human domain.  

Excerpts: “President Biden has now pledged a large package of security assistance and humanitarian aid to the Kabul government. But recent Taliban advances, spreading fear, and deteriorating security forecasts have touched off what looks like a downward spiral, in which vital noncombat American support on the ground, such as contractors who maintain Afghan aircraft, will pull out alongside U.S. soldiers. Last week in Washington, Ghani said that his job now is to “manage the consequences” of the U.S. withdrawal—a technocrat’s description of an existential struggle that seems, for now, to be running against him.

Akbar told me that she is not “anti-withdrawal; I’m all for it,” but that the way the Biden Administration announced its decision—linking it to the anniversary of September 11th, for example—showed “very little consideration about the impact on a very fragile peace process” and on the Afghan population. Her greatest fear is “all-out war,” such as that which engulfed the country during the nineteen-nineties, a conflict laced with mass killings, rape, and other atrocities.

“There’s little reflection on failures and America’s role in these failures,” Akbar said. “That’s frustrating to watch. We are being left with a huge mess. We are being told to deal with it mostly on our own. Of course, it’s our responsibility. It’s our country. But it’s not a mess we created on our own.”

 

13.  Iranian Disinformation Effort Went Small to Stay Under Big Tech’s Radar

The New York Times · by Sheera Frenkel · June 30, 2021

Excerpts: “U.S. intelligence agencies are concerned that the same could be happening in the United States. Last week, the Justice Department said it was blocking access to three dozen websites linked to disinformation efforts by Iran. A U.S. intelligence official told The Times that the authorities were closely monitoring messaging groups on Telegram, WhatsApp and other apps for Iranian disinformation.

The apps are an ideal means for Iran to enter a closed group of people with similar viewpoints and spread divisive and extremist messages, said the intelligence official, who was not authorized to give interviews and spoke on the condition of anonymity. They were sharing memes, for example, that likened Mr. Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler — an offensive comparison that could prod some people into more extreme views and make others think their online groups had become too extreme.

“In these closed messaging groups, people tend to trust one another and share more freely because there is a feeling that they share the same politics, and that the app itself is secure and safe,” said Gonen Ben Itzhak, an Israeli lawyer who once worked for Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence agency. He was among dozens of Israelis who said the Iranian efforts had targeted them.

The people who unknowingly communicated with the Iranians said the pandemic and upheaval in Israeli politics had made them especially vulnerable to the disinformation.

 

14. Biden’s lack of ambassador picks leaves him on a pace that’s trailing Trump

pennlive.com · by Tribune News Service · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “It’s too slow,” said Eric Rubin, president of the American Foreign Service Association, the diplomatic corps’ union. “It’s true that every administration has challenges, but this is the administration that comes after Trump, and there’s really an urgency in terms of undoing damage that was done.”

Measured by ambassadors who have been nominated to individual countries, not institutions such as NATO or United Nations bodies, Biden trails Trump at this point in his presidency, according to the Partnership for Public Service, which tracks such appointments. As of June 30 in their administrations, former President Barack Obama had nominated 40 ambassadors, Bill Clinton 26 and Trump 19. Biden has nominated just 14.

Biden’s team argues that Trump left him in an impossible position, for many reasons: Trump’s refusal to concede the election and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol slowed the transition, as did turmoil from the coronavirus response. He has put more emphasis on diversity than speed — leading all presidents in the number of female nominees of color as of his first 100 days, for example.

The White House and State Department declined to comment. But officials familiar with the administration’s thinking say that in this era of hyper-partisanship in Washington, Biden wants to make sure his nominees face no uncomfortable surprises in their nomination hearings.

 

15. Worried about ‘wokeness’? There’s a lot more to be outraged about in the US military

taskandpurpose.com · by Paul Szoldra, James Clark, Jeff Schogol, and Haley Britzky · June 30, 2021

Quite a laundry list of challenges within our military beyond the false crisis of wokeness.

Conclusion: “While members of Congress — and the army of talk show hosts and social media personalities filling up the airways and your newsfeed — are well within their rights to pound their desks over what books people may or may not be reading, or opine at length about the changes individual military branches are making to be more inclusive, the real question is: Is any of that worth your time, and outrage, compared to all of the above?

Perhaps we should refocus our collective attention on trying to tackle the real and tangible problems that are destroying careers, ruining troops’ lives and, in many cases, actually impeding the military’s ability to fight effectively.

 

16. Will America Defend Taiwan? Here’s What History Says

hoover.org · by Ian Easton · June 30, 2021

Excerpts: “To date, there is no known case in which an American president failed to send forces to support the defense of Taiwan in response to a credible CCP threat. If this track record is indicative of future performance, the years ahead are likely to see the U.S. government continually improve its operational readiness to defend Taiwan in accordance with the evolving threat picture. In times of crisis, American leaders will likely send overwhelming national resources to the Taiwan Strait area and make their commitments to Taiwan’s defense more explicit in hopes of convincing the PRC to deescalate tensions.

Even barring a major political-military crisis, it seems probable that the years ahead will see the U.S. government improve its early-warning intelligence via regular ship, submarine, and aircraft patrols of the Taiwan Strait; more frequent overhead passes of space and near-space platforms; and expanded intelligence sharing arrangements with the Taiwanese security services. It also seems probable that the U.S. will make significant enhancements to its diplomatic, trade, intelligence, and military presence in Taiwan.

It remains an open question whether a Taiwan Patrol Force and MAAG-like organization will be reestablished—let alone an official country-to-country relationship and defensive alliance. But each could be considered past examples of political and military initiatives that, when combined, were successful in helping to deter CCP aggression. Herein we might find positive lessons for the future.

 

17. What Terrorism Will Look Like in the Near Future

newlinesinstitute.org · by Colin Clarke · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States has been attempting to pivot away from counterterrorism as an organizing principle as it prepares to meet the challenges of great-power competition. But counterterrorism and great-power competition are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, in many cases, a convergence between the two will further complicate the response and may also lead to an increase in state-sponsored terrorism, a throwback to the proxy conflicts waged during the Cold War.

To head off violent ideologies or support for terrorist groups before they metastasize, and to formulate adequate prevention policies, the United States should heed the lessons observed from local contexts in foreign states. Chief among these lessons is taking note of early indications and warnings of racism, sectarianism, or other forms of discrimination against specific societal groups. Issues like salad bar ideologies do not comport with neat analytic frameworks. Concepts like fringe fluidity mean that it is entirely possible, and increasingly more common, for violent extremists to reconcile aspects of two competing ideologies, like neo-Nazism and militant Islamism.

For counterterrorism analysts, it is crucial to step outside of analytic comfort zones. This requires questioning long-held assumptions and avoiding groupthink that too often plagues intelligence community assessments. Of course, this requires deep knowledge of how terrorist groups train, recruit, and operate. But it also requires intellectual curiosity, an understanding that ideology can be malleable, and the ability to identify trend lines before they become fault lines.

 

18. US-UK Warn Of New Worldwide Russian Cyberespionage

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · July 1, 2021

Excerpts: “The advisory notes that the threat actors are using encrypted traffic via the Tor network and virtual private networks (VPNs) to conceal activities, including data exfiltration. They are also using techniques to “live off the land,” a term that means malicious actors use legitimate tools that don’t alert security experts to conceal activities on a victim’s network.

The advisory then provides some mitigation guidance — most of which Breaking Defense readers know: Use strong account passwords, enable multifactor authentication wherever possible, apply access controls to include account time-out/lock-out, patch software, and implement zero-trust security principles as broadly as possible across networks.

 

19. Is the military teaching critical race theory? Not really

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers, Leo Shane III · July 1, 2021

I did not think so.

 

20. AllStances™: Critical Race Theory: Perspectives, Pro Con, Arguments, For And Against, Critical Race Theory, CRT, Race And Racism, Racism, Anti-Racism, Race

Allsides · March 16, 2021

Probably, the most balanced discussion of critical race theory I have read. But we should expect that from the AllSides website.

 

21. Japanese official warns US of potential surprise attack on Hawaii — from Russia and China

Washington Examiner · June 30, 2021

There would appear to be some irony in this headline.

 

22. U.S. Leaves Largest Afghan Base as Full Withdrawal Nears

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · July 2, 2021

 

23. Satellite Photos Show China Expanding Its Mysterious Desert Airfield

NPR · by Geoff Brumfiel · July 1, 2021

A Chinese "Area 51?"

 

24. Opinion | The Chinese Communist Party’s anniversary is Hong Kong’s funeral

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · July 1, 2021

Is Taiwan next?

Excerpts: “What we should learn from Hong Kong is that Xi Jinping does exactly what he says he will do,” said Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “He succeeded in Hong Kong with impunity and he’s talking the same way about Taiwan now. We ought to take him seriously.”

...

 

The lesson of the last century was that appeasing aggressive, repressive, expansionist, nationalist, totalitarian dictatorships is more dangerous than confronting them. This July 1 is a stark reminder that we should believe Xi Jinping when he threatens to attack and undermine freedom and democracy — and then we must do more to push back, in Hong Kong, in Taiwan and in our own country.

 

25. Back to the Future: Resetting Special Operations Forces for Great Power Competition

mwi.usma.edu · by Kyle Atwell · July 2, 2021

The 47 minute podcast can be accessed here. 

I have not listened to it yet but I will later today.

 

-----------------

 

"When God puts his hands on a man, I take my hands off."

- Sen Thomas Hart Benton (1782-1858)

 

"We got a mountain to move." 

- General Paul J. LaCamera, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander, 2 July 2021, Change of Command

 

"Paymasters come in only two sizes:one sort shows you where the book says that you can't have what you've got coming to yo; he second sort digs through the book until he finds a paragraph that lets you have what you need even if you don't rate it."

- Robert Heinlein - The Door into Summer

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Lavrov To The West: Your Hegemony Is Over, Your Rules Don't Apply

2.  China, Russia and the Strategy of Indirection

3. Xi vows to crush meddling forces and Taiwan independence attempts

4. “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan

5. How great powers should compete

6. Russia-China tag team could end US space supremacy

7. Hugging the Old Bear: Updating The American Playbook for the Long Game

8. When Does a ‘Cyber Attack’ Demand Retaliation? NATO Broadens Its View

9. 'The Future Is About Information Dominance:' Gen. Nakasone

10. ‘Heads bashed bloody’: China’s Xi marks Communist Party centenary with strong words for adversaries

11. Great Power Competition Requires Theater Deterrence

12. Rules-based order: What’s in a name?

13. Analysis: Kim's reshuffles serve to keep North Korea elite in line as crises mount

14. WHO "not aware' of North Korea COVID-19 "great crisis," China offers help

15. House lawmakers seek to slash military personnel funding by $488 million from Biden’s defense budget proposal

16. A privately funded National Guard deployment is legal, but is it ethical?

17.  America’s misplayed debt diplomacy in Cambodia

18. Large Majorities Say China Does Not Respect the Personal Freedoms of Its People

19. Meet The MC-145B Wily Coyote Armed Special Ops Transport Plane

20. House Panel Proposes $1M to Start Renaming Bases That Honor Confederates

21. Naval Special Warfare in a 'Race for Relevancy' as Mission Shifts to High-end Conflict

 

1. Lavrov To The West: Your Hegemony Is Over, Your Rules Don't Apply

worldcrunch.com · by Anna Akage

Something upbeat to start the day (not!)

Conclusion: “’I will stress once again what President Vladimir Putin has said many times: there were no unilateral concessions at the end of the 1990s, and there never will be any. If you want to cooperate and regain your lost profits and your business reputation, you should negotiate with each other in order to find fair solutions and compromises.

This world view is firmly rooted in the minds of the Russian people.

It is fundamentally important for the West to understand that this world view is firmly rooted in the minds of the Russian people and reflects the views of the overwhelming majority of Russian citizens. Those irreconcilable opponents of the Russian authorities, on whom the West relies and who see all of Russia's problems in anti-Westernism, demanding unilateral concessions in order to lift sanctions and obtain some hypothetical material benefits, represent an absolutely marginal segment of our society. At the June 16 press conference in Geneva, Vladimir Putin clearly explained what the West's support of such marginal circles is aimed at.

They are going against the historical continuity of a people that has always, especially in difficult times, been known for its maturity, sense of self-respect, dignity and national pride, ability to think independently while being open to the rest of the world on equal terms for mutual benefit. It is these qualities of the Russians after the confusion and vacillation of the 1990s that have become the foundational concept of Russia's foreign policy in the 21st century. They are able to assess the actions of their leadership themselves, without prompting from abroad.

 

2. China, Russia and the Strategy of Indirection

geopoliticalfutures.com · George Friedman · June 29, 2021

Given this conclusion below it seems like we need to be able conduct our own form of irregular warfare and political warfare in the gray zone of great power competition.

In the 2017 NDAA Congress actually provided the concept of operations for strategy and campaign development: 

Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

We would do well to heed Congressional guidance. Interestingly there is supposedly not a single dollar (from what I have been told) in the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to execute such a strategy with supporting campaign plans. You would think the Pacfic Deterrence Initiative and the emerging concept of integrated deterrence would include a line of effort for unconventional deterrence - developing resistance potential among indigenous populations to resist the efforts of Russia and China. SOCEUR and EUCOM are doing this with US friends, partners, and allies in Europe with the implementation of the Resistance Operating Concept. Similar concepts, adapted appropriately for specific conditions, could be employed in designated areas where China is executing its One Belt One Road initiative.

The bottom line is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative and the emerging concept of integrated deterrence needs a line of effort for unconventional deterrence (credit to Bob Jones for this concept: Deterring “Competition Short of War”: Are Gray Zones the Ardennes of our Modern Maginot Line of Traditional Deterrence? https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/deterring-competition-short-war-are-gray-zones-ardennes-our-modern-maginot-line

My thoughts here: Resistance and Resilience in Asia – Political Warfare of Revisionist and Rogue Powers. 

Conclusion: “What the Chinese and Russians need to do is to create politico-military insurgencies and governments spread around the world in the hopes that the U.S., maintaining an alliance against China and Russia, might be forced into responding. The closer to the United States, the greater the need to respond. Hence why Latin America was fertile ground for the Soviets. If the U.S. preempts, it starts accruing military and political costs. If it does not, the danger is massive political costs.

A strategy of indirection is a strategy of opportunism. Intelligence teams are inserted into places that are already hostile to the U.S. The key is to create so many perceived threats and unknowns that U.S. intelligence is forced to counter, but countering all of them is nearly impossible even if it were politically palatable.

The Chinese and Russians face the same problem in principle. Conventional military options against the United States might work, but there is a real possibility they won’t, and neither can afford the internal consequences of failure. They cannot find satisfactory settlements with the Americans and are therefore left with a strategic position that the U.S. might take advantage of. This scenario must be avoided, so an indirect strategy is obvious. The Chinese economic strategy is fine in the short term, but it is highly vulnerable to changes in government. The creation of anti-American states is critical. A strategy of indirection is more prudent, and Russia and China are prudent nations. They have to be.

China, Russia and the Strategy of Indirection | Geopolitical Futures

By George Friedman -

June 29, 2021

 

3. Xi vows to crush meddling forces and Taiwan independence attempts

asia.nikkei.com · July 1, 2021

Threat and response: “He also reiterated Beijing's ambition of achieving reunification with Taiwan, and promised to crush any push for independence on the island that China considers to be a renegade province.

"No one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and strong ability of the Chinese people to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity," said Xi.

Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said democracy, freedom, human rights and rule of law are the core values that Taiwan holds on to, which is very different from the authoritarian regime on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.

"The nature of cross-strait relations should be based on mutual respect and understanding. The 23 million Taiwanese people already rejected the CCP's unilateral 'One China' policy and the so-called 1992 consensus," the council said in a press release in response to Xi's speech.

The Taiwanese government will firmly defend its national sovereignty and Taiwan's democracy and freedom, the council said.

 

4. “No Option is Excluded” — Using Wargaming to Envision a Chinese Assault on Taiwan

madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · by Ian Sullivan · July 1, 2021

Excerpt: “In an effort to guard against the failure of imagination, I will add a narrative to help explain what happened in the game. Rudyard Kipling once said that if “history were taught in the form of stories, it would never be forgotten.” Narrative writing is a powerful, and by spinning it around the bones of a game, I hope to help imagine what a fight could be. Tom Clancy and Larry Bond used this method in their novel where they crafted a narrative around the results of a series of scenarios they played of the wargame Harpoon. My effort here, however, is intended to be more in the spirit of Sir John Hackett’s originally published in 1978, and intended to help NATO leaders imagine what a fight with the Warsaw Pact could look like.

 

5. How great powers should compete

japantimes.co.jp · by Michael Spence · June 30, 2021

From a Nobel laureate.

In a perfect world perhaps - 

Excerpts: “The more often leaders repeat these narratives, the more likely ordinary citizens are to become convinced that they are true. Rising fear and resentment on both sides increases the risk that the narratives will become self-fulfilling prophecies.

In the meantime, the focus on bilateral competition obscures the needs and interests of people in emerging markets and developing economies. Yes, China and the West espouse some version of multilateralism. But unfettered strategic competition precludes effective multilateralism, not least by disrupting trade and technology transfer — a crucial driver of development.

China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated economic competition is not a zero-sum game.

In static terms, normal economic competition bolsters price efficiency and helps to align supply and demand. In dynamic terms, it leads to what Joseph Schumpeter dubbed “creative destruction” — a powerful mechanism for translating knowledge, ideas and experiments into new products, services and cost-reducing processes. In other words, it leads to advances in human well-being.

...

Such an approach would avoid greater fragmentation of the global economic system, which is particularly damaging to third parties. And it would deter offensive use of military or technological capabilities — vital in an environment where neither side trusts the other.

But a system that minimizes the need for trust does not justify mutual villainization. There is nothing wrong with preferring the governance system in one’s own country, including its particular balance of individual rights and collective interests. Such preferences are based on factors like personal experience, education and values, not objective fact.

 

6. Russia-China tag team could end US space supremacy

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · June 30, 2021

"Space: the final frontier."

 

7. Hugging the Old Bear: Updating The American Playbook for the Long Game

thestrategybridge.org · by Alexander Grinberg· July 1, 2021

Conclusion: “If the United States stabilizes relations with Russia and works towards a mutually beneficial relationship, it is possible to pave a way forward where American and European Union levels of transparency may bleed into Russia. According to Transparency International, Russia’s level of corruption decreased by ten points since 2018, and that trend will continue through Russian interconnectivity and access to the EU.[21] To do business within the EU, European markets force Russian businesses to play by Western European rules. At a grassroots level, the Russian people prefer a more transparent and less-corrupt Russia.[22] The United States should not concern itself with how Putin will politically maneuver himself to win local support in response to stabilizing relations. Instead, the United States, along with the European Union should focus on helping to provide a market and opportunities that Russia needs, thus playing the long game and winning influence in Russia.

Granted, Russia commits acts of disinformation, disruption, and routinely conducts operations to destabilize Western Democracies, but that is today’s Russia and the United States needs a lasting strategy for tomorrow’s Russia. The best way forward is to build domestic resiliency to counter disinformation, a topic thoroughly discussed, while focusing on engagement with Russia. In his speech to Congress on April 29, 2021 President Biden even acknowledged the possibility of developing positive relations with Russia.[23] To achieve a more Western-friendly Russia in the long term, the United States needs to realize that hard-lining and brinkmanship is a Cold War era strategy that needs to be set aside and replaced with a coherent modern strategy that applies proper pressure to shift Russian behavior.

 

8. When Does a ‘Cyber Attack’ Demand Retaliation? NATO Broadens Its View

defenseone.com · by Stefan Soesanto

Conclusion: "Time will tell how the alliance members will posture themselves in practice. Some members might be seizing the opportunity to drive the discussion deeper by bringing up preemptive or preventative self-defense in and through cyberspace. Others might entirely ignore the word “cumulative” due to their very different interpretations of international law applicable to cyberspace. And finally, it is inherently unclear whether adversaries understand this change in the alliance’s posture, whether they care enough, and whether they should take it seriously. NATO leaders should recognize the need for clearer statements on the matter."

 

9. 'The Future Is About Information Dominance:' Gen. Nakasone

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “But it’s not just CYBERCOM that will play a role in America’s cyber future. Nakasone touted NSA’s role, with its dual missions of signals intelligence and cybersecurity. Nakasone pointed to the importance of cryptology, an NSA specialty, in cyber defenses. “The true backstop is encryption,” he said, “to protect weapons systems and data.” The stronger the US’s crypto capabilities, “the better off we’ll be.”

“I close with optimism,” Nakasone said, “balanced with the realization we have work to do.”

 

10. ‘Heads bashed bloody’: China’s Xi marks Communist Party centenary with strong words for adversaries

The Washington Post · by David Crawshaw and Alicia Chen · July 1, 2021

Great rhetoric (note sarcasm).

But it seems the Chinese people like the phrase: ““The Chinese people have never bullied, oppressed, or enslaved the people of other countries,” he said. “At the same time, the Chinese people will never allow any foreign forces to bully, oppress, or enslave us. Anyone who dares try to do that will have their heads bashed bloody against a Great Wall of steel forged by over 1.4 billion Chinese people.”

 

11. Great Power Competition Requires Theater Deterrence

usni.org · by James Stavridis · July 1, 2021

And part of that theater deterrence should include a population or human domain focused unconventional deterrence as a line of effort. A mindset change is also required for unconventional deterrence.

Conclusion: “All of this requires a change in mind-set, culture, training, and patterns of deployment. Over the past two decades, the Sea Services have—appropriately—been focused on combating global terror and supporting operations in the Middle East and Afghanistan. They have stood an uneasy watch elsewhere around the globe, from the western Pacific to the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. With the reemergence of great power competition, they need a new overarching concept that inculcates part of Cold War thinking but also includes the kind of “fight tonight” mentality developed in the “forever wars.”

Theater deterrence can unsettle the minds and disrupt the plans of the Chinese and Russian great power adversaries. There are echoes of strategic deterrence and Cold War operations embedded in it, but ultimately theater deterrence practiced against other great powers is the new central concept the United States must embrace.

 

12. Rules-based order: What’s in a name?

lowyinstitute.org · by Ben Scott

This is of course what China and Russia do not like. But I am going to have to add RDO to my acronym list (rules based order). I have not yet adopted that one. (and LIO as well - liberal international order)

Conclusion: “The extent to which what it now called the Indo-Pacific was ever part of the LIO and, its successor, the RBO is open for debate. Post-Cold War globalisation – including of rules – has clearly played a major role in the region’s prosperity. But assertions that the rules-based global order has delivered 70 years of peace and security in the Indo-Pacific are ahistorical and unhelpful. The bloody conflicts in Korea and Vietnam may have been peripheral to the Cold War and the LIO, but they were central to this region.

The development of a more rules-based order for the Indo-Pacific remains a daunting challenge. But without a clear-eyed understanding of the RBO’s history, it will be even harder.

 

13. Analysis: Kim's reshuffles serve to keep North Korea elite in line as crises mount

Reuters · by Josh Smith and Hyonhee Shin · July 01, 2021

Something to observe for: “Irregular political gatherings and personnel attrition in an authoritarian regime such as North Korea can foreshadow things like fundamental failure of the state apparatus or unsteady political transitions, he said.”

 

​I think we should expect some violent purges: “Since last year, Kim has been waging a war against corruption and a lack of discipline in the party, including by shuffling top officials in a way that is reminiscent of his early years in office when he consolidated power by constantly replacing, demoting, or reinstating senior military leaders, said Rachel Minyoung Lee, another specialist with 38 North.

"He is publicly demonstrating that those who fail to follow the instructions and rules, and those who fail to lead properly and achieve desired results will be sacked or demoted, no matter how high up in the ranks they are or how long they have been in their current position," she said.

​...​

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said that Ri and Pak could have been involved in failures to release military rice reserves, while Choe appeared to have been fired for failing to coordinate policy and communications regarding the pandemic.

 

"By revealing it at the politburo meeting, which is a key executive gathering, Kim seems to be sending a warning to all party officials and a message that he will bring them to account if they do wrong," Yang said.

​

14. WHO "not aware' of North Korea COVID-19 "great crisis," China offers help

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · June 30, 2021

We are all speculating that the great crisis is COVID related, but.....

Excerpts: “"China and the DPRK are friendly neighbors linked by mountains and rivers," Wang said. "We respect the anti-epidemic measures the DPRK has put in place based on its national realities and wish it smooth progress in all its endeavors."

And he emphasized China's ongoing commitment to support North Korea.

"China and the DPRK have a long tradition of mutual assistance in times of need," Wang said. "China stands ready to positively consider providing help to the DPRK should there be such a need."

He declined to answer whether or not China has provided COVID-19 vaccines to North Korea.

As information coming from North Korea remains scarce as ever, a representative of the travel company Koryo Tours confirmed to Newsweek that the country's borders continue to be closed to foreigners, as they have since January 2020, when news of the novel coronavirus first emerged from China.

 

15. House lawmakers seek to slash military personnel funding by $488 million from Biden’s defense budget proposal

Stars and Stripes · by Sarah Cammarata · June 30, 2021

Personnel. The most expensive line in the budget?

"In times of war and not before,

God and the soldier we adore.

But in times of peace and all things righted,

God is forgotten and the soldier slighted."

 

-Rudyard Kipling”

 

16.  A privately funded National Guard deployment is legal, but is it ethical?

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers and Leo Shane III · July 1, 2021

I saw a social media comment that said this action seems to be in line with the Articles of Confederation (which of course was the failed predecessor to our Constitution)

 

17. America’s misplayed debt diplomacy in Cambodia

asiatimes.com · by David Hutt · July 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Instead, the US could be more creative with the $500 million to $700 million it is owed, a rounding error for American finances. A large proportion of it (say Hun Sen’s proposed 70%) could be forgiven and turned into new infrastructure investment for Cambodia, a way of rivaling China’s infrastructure investment in the country.

Or Washington could make a gesture to the Cambodian people, not Hun Sen’s government, by commuting 70% of the debt into new development assistance only for Cambodia’s civil society. Better still, it could wipe off this debt if American inspectors deem the 2023 general election in Cambodia to be legitimate and fair.

Look at it whichever way you wish, the debt gives Washington leverage in a country where its opinion is no longer heeded. If Washington were to get tough and seriously call in the debt, Cambodia’s reputation among international lenders, including the International Monetary Fund, could be jeopardized.

If Phnom Penh wants it wiped out, it must give something in return. If not, the US is happy to let the debt continue to tot up from interest.

 

18. Large Majorities Say China Does Not Respect the Personal Freedoms of Its People

Pew Research · by Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, and Christian Huang · June 30, 2021

Please go to this link to view all the graphs and data. Below is only an excerpt of the text as well.

 

19.  Meet The MC-145B Wily Coyote Armed Special Ops Transport Plane

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · June 30, 2021

This is a new one to me but of course I retired 10 years ago :-) 

 

20. House Panel Proposes $1M to Start Renaming Bases That Honor Confederates

news.usni.org · by Gidget Fuentes · June 30, 2021

A lot of signage and letterheads will have to be changed.

 

21. Naval Special Warfare in a 'Race for Relevancy' as Mission Shifts to High-end Conflict

news.usni.org · by Gidget Fuentes · June 30, 2021

There is still an awful lot left for SOF to do below the level of high end conflict. And even in high end conflict there will still be a great need for operations within the human domain that may be less than high end conflict but will certainly support attaining national security objectives. I fear NAVSPECWARCOM and SOF in general may now be chasing the shiny thing rather than focusing on its comparative advantage across the spectrum of conflict. SOF can and must contribute to high end conflict but it must also recognize (and advocate to leaders, policy makers, and strategists) that its focus on the human domain is applicable across the spectrum of conflict.

 

--------------

 

"I attribute my success to this - I never gave or took any excuse." 

- Florence Nightingale

 

 "Hope lies in dreams, in imagination, and in the courage of those who dare to make dreams into reality." 

- Jonas Salk

 

"History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again."

- Maya Angelou

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. Moon asks new USFK commander to attend to alliance issues

2. President honors outgoing USFK commander for his service

3. North Korea increases cyberattacks on South Korea

4. North Korea Launches Investigation to Stop Gossip about Kim Jong Un’s Health

5. North Korea congratulates China for party's 100th, sends flowers

6. Kim Jong-un Sacks Officials over COVID 'Crisis'

7. Kim Jong Un's "special order" includes directives to address electricity and running water shortages

8. Is the FBI Scapegoating an American Hero?

9. N. Korea orders farms in Yanggang Province to stop selling off secretly stored up rice

10. Kim Jong Un warns of ‘grave incident’ in North Korea’s Covid fight

11. EXPLAINER: How bad is the pandemic in North Korea?

12. China and USA Not Full Partners on North Korea

13. N.K. leader vows to elevate relations with China to new strategic point

14. China's Role on the Korean Peninsula

15.  Ukraine Gave Up It's Nukes — And Some of Its Secrets to North Korea

16. U.S. aware of NK leader Kim's remarks on 'grave incident' in anti-pandemic steps: State Dept.

 

1. Moon asks new USFK commander to attend to alliance issues

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · July 1, 2021

Interesting that the Joongang Ilbo leads with this title. He should be asking the incoming ROK/US CFC commander to attend to alliance issues. The USFK Commander is the commander of a sub-unified command that answers to the INDOPACOM Commander.  The USFK Commander does not manage alliance issues. He is the force provider to the ROK/US CFC which is the bilateral combined command equally "co-owned" by the ROK and US. This "co-ownership" is exercised through the Military Committee which is made up of representatives of both countries' national command and military authorities. Note the same relationship will remain in effect after the OPCON transition process takes place (which will be a change of command between a ROK and US general officer).

And we should keep in mind that as the commander of ROK/US Combined Forces Commander General LaCamera will work equally for both presidents (and after the OPCON transition the ROK general commanding ROK/US CFC will work equally for both presidents). I have heard nearly every successful US commander state that. It is critically important in understanding the command relationships of the combined command. The USFK commander answers to USINDOPACOM and the United Nations Command commander answers to the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

 

2. President honors outgoing USFK commander for his service

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · July 1, 2021

I believe more people than Generals Abrams and LaCamera share this idea. I believe our president and all our civilian political and military leadership share this as well. I also believe the ROK military leadership and the national security professionals in the ROK government believe this. There can be no effective diplomacy with north Korea without a strong foundation of military readiness that contributes to deterrence and defense.

Excerpt: “LaCamera also shares Abrams' idea of strengthening military readiness. During his confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in May, he said he believes joint field exercises are "extremely important to build readiness," and said he would work toward their resumption.

 

3. North Korea increases cyberattacks on South Korea

The Korea Times · by Kanh Seung-woo · July 1, 2021

I think Representative Ha is channeling my colleague Mathew Ha based on his policy brief here. 

 

4.  North Korea Launches Investigation to Stop Gossip about Kim Jong Un’s Health

rfa.org · by Hyemin Son and Albert Hong

They are trying hard to control the narrative.  I sure wish we could turn loose the ROK and US PSYOP professionals to exploit this. If only we have an information and influence activities campaign with the agility to exploit these developments.

 

5. North Korea congratulates China for party's 100th, sends flowers

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

 Kim has given his assessment of great power competition between the US and PRC: “Kim said in the message that "hostile forces" are engaged in "vicious slander and all-round pressure" upon China in what appears to be a reference to the rising Sino-U.S. rivalry, according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in an English-language report Thursday.”

 

6. Kim Jong-un Sacks Officials over COVID 'Crisis'

english.chosun.com · July 01, 2021

It will be interesting to see who was purged and how was promoted. And will we see any "disciplinary action" (e.g, of the 14.5mm size)

And of course Kim blames everyone but himself. He refuses to accept responsibility for his poor decision making.

 

7.  Kim Jong Un's "special order" includes directives to address electricity and running water shortages

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · July 1, 2021

Another indicator of the poor conditions inside north Korea. They could surely make use of those portable nuclear reactors the US Army is developing. 

 

8. Is the FBI Scapegoating an American Hero?

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · July 1, 2021

In addition to my comments in the article here are some of my additional thoughts (and speculation) about this unfortunate situation.

We should keep in mind that the FBI has people on its most wanted list who are allegedly guilty of far greater crimes than Adrian Hong who they have not been able to apprehend. If they cannot catch some of the most dangerous criminals then it must not be too hard for Adrian to avoid capture especially as he is probably not too high a priority.  When you think about it, why do they want to apprehend him just to extradite him to Spain? What does that really do for US interests?

Here is my speculation: someone made a poor decision with the apprehension of Ahn. Ahn was probably fairly easy to apprehend because he may not have been practicing tradecraft as well as Hong (see the description of the apprehension in the article) and when he was located someone was probably just following the proper procedure and executed the arrest due to the request from Spain. It is causing us unnecessary problems with the extradition process and bad public relations. While they may have been looking for both Ahn and Hong at the request of Spanish authorities as they have seen how the Ahn apprehension has played out, they may have have reevaluated their effort to apprehend Hong because it will create even more problems and probably negative public relations not only for the FBI but create issues for the Biden administration. So turning a blind eye to Hong is certainly plausible.

Also, since I think Hong is a Mexican citizen he may have returned to Mexico. We certainly are not going to expend US law enforcement efforts in Mexico to try to apprehend him when we have so many other issues (e.g., drug trafficking) that we have to worry about. And if he was apprehended in Mexico it would have to be done by the Mexicans and they would have to extradite him to Spain. I doubt anyone would suggest extraditing him to the US just for the US to try to extradite him to Spain. 

So the bottom line is I think Hong is getting a free pass, Ahn is the sacrificial lamb who may be being sacrificed by mistake. My only hope is the court finds a legal justification to not extradite him because if he is extradited he will be at grave risk for north Korean retaliation.

 

9. N. Korea orders farms in Yanggang Province to stop selling off secretly stored up rice

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong · July 1, 2021

Another important indicator.

 

10. Kim Jong Un warns of ‘grave incident’ in North Korea’s Covid fight

Financial Times · by Edward White · June 30, 2021

What is the grave incident?

Excerpts: “Soo Kim, a former CIA North Korea analyst now at the Rand Corporation, a US think-tank, said the international community had been waiting for Pyongyang to “crack and show greater signs of unease”.

“That Kim chose to blame his cadres — rather than taking responsibility and pursuing concrete steps to correct the situation — may give some indication that Kim takes the virus seriously, but perhaps not to the extent that it will move him to make the right decision,” she said.

 

11. EXPLAINER: How bad is the pandemic in North Korea?

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung and Hyung-Jin Kim · June 30, 2021

 

12. China and USA Not Full Partners on North Korea

The National Interest · by Denny Roy · June 30, 2021

Are we even part-time partners? Our interests probably align on three things - no war, no instability or collapse, and no nukes. But my guess is China is least committed to denuclearization because it fears war and instability much more.

And of course we probably do not see eye to eye on how to prevent war or instability.

 

13. N.K. leader vows to elevate relations with China to new strategic point

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 1, 2021

I wonder what is the "new strategic point."

 

14.  China's Role on the Korean Peninsula

The National Interest · by Gilbert Rozman · June 30, 2021

I concur with Gil that China has never prioritized denuclearization. (and it never will)

It would love to see north Korea adopt "Chinese style reforms" especially to its economy. Of course Kim cannot "reform" because it will risk undermining regime legitimacy.

And the irony is the US and PRC are both committed to their visions (as the Moon administration is to its peace agenda) - none of which are unattainable as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

 

15. Ukraine Gave Up It's Nukes — And Some of Its Secrets to North Korea

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 30, 2021

This is why we need to track the "human infrastructure" of north Korea's nuclear and missile programs. 

 

16. U.S. aware of NK leader Kim's remarks on 'grave incident' in anti-pandemic steps: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 1, 2021

 

--------------

 

"I attribute my success to this - I never gave or took any excuse." 

- Florence Nightingale

 

 "Hope lies in dreams, in imagination, and in the courage of those who dare to make dreams into reality." 

- Jonas Salk

 

 "History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again." 

- Maya Angelou

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Top US general says security in Afghanistan deteriorating

2.  Biden Needs an International Organizations Strategy

3. SOCOM To Test Anti-Aging Pill Next Year

4. The Emerging Biden Doctrine

5. Military drones are transforming war — we need a doctrine to use them right

6. Afghan Conflict Update - June 2021 | SOF News

7. Air Strikes Renew Battle Over War Authorizations

8. A Better Blueprint for International Organizations - Advancing American Interests on the Global Stage

9. Top Pentagon Cyber Official Probed Over Disclosure Concerns

10. India, China and the Quad’s defining test

11. Ending Forever Wars But Not Interventionism: Rethinking U.S. Civil Society Assistance Policy

12. Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy

13. China-Russia: A Strategic Partnership Short on Strategy

14. The Case Against the Concept of Great Power Competition

15. Party-to-party diplomacy: the Chinese strategy for crafting its own narratives

16. U.S. military commander in Afghanistan warns of possible civil war

17. Taiwan Sovereignty Key to Western Pacific Security, Says Japanese Defense Official

18. 'This means war': China warns US over military ties with Taipei

19. Have Biden and Trump Altered a Core Theory of Political Science?

 

1. Top US general says security in Afghanistan deteriorating

militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “He said his time as the head of the U.S.’s military mission in Afghanistan was coming to an end, without giving a date, though the press briefing had the feeling of a farewell.

Miller wouldn’t speculate on the legacy of America’s longest war, saying it will be for history to decide.

“The future will tell the rest of the story,” he said. “What we will have to do is make an honest assessment of what went well and what didn’t go so well over the years as we work forward.”

 

2. Biden Needs an International Organizations Strategy

Foreign Policy · by Richard Goldberg · June 29, 2021

This is one of the battlefields where China is conducting political warfare. As I have written many times, my assessment of Chinese strategy is this: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions. I think we have to effectively compete in the international organizations arena. We cannot be passive.

Excerpts: “The Biden administration must understand that mere engagement is not the same as actively pushing for outcomes that strengthen the United States’ national security and promote its values. This tendency to engage for engagement’s sake confuses the means with the end. You can’t win if you don’t fight—assuming winning is the goal.

Whether working with allies or mounting the fight alone, Washington must wage a campaign of reform battles, agency by agency, to restore the U.S.-led international order. That means fixing where possible and nixing when necessary. The battle to advance U.S. interests and counter adversaries inside international organizations will require tenacity and commitment. And that commitment must come from Democrats and Republicans alike.

It’s only a matter of time before a multilateral agency fails to address the next regional or global crisis. The United States must learn the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic’s cover-up perpetrated by China and enabled by the WHO. Failure to do so could lead to even greater loss of life and economic devastation. Policymakers can take critical steps to protect Americans now. But that will require a readiness to hold international organizations accountable rather than writing more blank checks and hoping for the best.

 

3. SOCOM To Test Anti-Aging Pill Next Year

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens · June 29, 2021

"If I could turn back time."

I would volunteer for this. Where can I sign up?

Excerpt: “The pill “has the potential, if it is successful, to truly delay aging, truly prevent onset of injury — which is just amazingly game changing,” Lisa Sanders, director of science and technology for Special Operations Forces, acquisition, technology & logistics (SOF AT&L), said Friday.

“We have completed pre-clinical safety and dosing studies in anticipation of follow-on performance testing in fiscal year 2022,” Navy Cmdr. Tim Hawkins, a SOCOM spokesperson, said.

 

4. The Emerging Biden Doctrine

Foreign Affairs · by Hal Brands · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “Focusing on the ideological and technological struggle could also distract the administration from equally pressing military dangers. The United States could, after all, lose the contest of systems by failing to contain authoritarian aggressors and defend democratic outposts in eastern Europe and the western Pacific. A bipartisan commission on U.S. defense strategy warned in 2018 that the United States simply does not have the military power necessary to meet its commitments around the Eurasian periphery. The Pentagon is facing a gaping window of vulnerability in the Taiwan Strait. Yet the administration has shown comparatively little urgency on the military front: its first Pentagon budget request is flat (in real terms) and shortchanges near-term measures to harden the United States’ posture in the Pacific. Today’s rivalries are about more than military power—but democratic values won’t save the free world in a gunfight.

Finally, the connection between the foreign and domestic components of the strategy is not as seamless as the administration claims. In Biden’s view, improving the economic fortunes of the middle class is insurance against a Trumpist resurrection and a way of strengthening the domestic foundations of U.S. diplomacy. Yet among the practical results have been a “Buy American” edict that looks like “America first” with Democratic characteristics and an underwhelming trade policy that, so far, has left many countries—particularly in Asia—wondering if the United States is really back. If Biden’s strategy doesn’t support an expansive, ambitious notion of prosperity, it won’t do much for the cohesion and power of the free world.

 

5. Military drones are transforming war — we need a doctrine to use them right

The Hill · by Seth J. Frantzman · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The quest for a drone doctrine will be answered by the first country to field a force that is fully integrated with the technology and air defenses to stop drone threats. Drones have proved themselves useful in ungoverned spaces where asymmetric warfare is typical, such as hunting militants in Somalia or in the fighting between Saudi Arabia and the militant Houthis in Yemen. Drones primarily work well in uncontested airspace against those who lack integrated, multi-layered air defense.

If we look at the history of military platforms, we find other eras with such experimentation — for example, the various tanks that emerged in the 1920s and 1930s, many of them an evolutionary dead end prior to the creation of main battle tanks, or the types of warships built prior to the dreadnought. Drones, whether small or large, need to mature and become more trusted before they are widely adopted. Then they will be sorted, so that the best systems become a mainstay.

 

6. Afghan Conflict Update - June 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · June 30, 2021

 

7. Air Strikes Renew Battle Over War Authorizations

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

Excerpts: “Hathaway said she believes the administration has already reached the point where it should consult with Congress after two strikes, since they don’t fall under either existing authorization.

“If you have this ongoing threat…ordinarily authority to act under Article II is supposed to be used in situations where the president for whatever reason doesn’t have the opportunity to consult in any deep and significant way with Congress,” she said. “It’s not supposed to be a blank check.”

Other experts said that the president always has the authority to defend America.

“Can you imagine if a month from now, there are still attacks happening and Biden said, ‘I really would like to defend our forces, but we can’t...do anything because it’s been a recurring series,’” said Robert Chesney, the associate dean at the University of Texas School of Law. “If they keep attacking us, we have the ability to self-defense.”

And, without a clear pathway for Congress to approve a new authorization if Biden asked, it could backfire politically, Chesney said, pointing to the example of the Clinton administration asking Congress to authorize air strikes in the Balkans. Lawmakers did not approve the request, but the White House carried out the strikes anyway and “took a ton of heat.”

 

8.  A Better Blueprint for International Organizations - Advancing American Interests on the Global Stage

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg and Nikki Haley · June 30, 2021

The 56 page monograph can be downloaded here. 

 

9. Top Pentagon Cyber Official Probed Over Disclosure Concerns

Bloomberg · by Anthony Capaccio · June 29, 2021

 

10. India, China and the Quad’s defining test

aspistrategist.org.au · by Arzan Tarapore · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “The task before Quad governments is to be sensitised to this risk and implement mitigation strategies before a possible conflict, to buttress the coalition in advance. As I outline in the ASPI paper, they could do this at three levels. First, they could offer operational support—such as intelligence or resupply of key equipment, as the US already has done in the Ladakh crisis—although Quad partners’ role here would be limited. Second, they could provide support in other theatres or domains—with a naval show of force, for example, although cyber operations would probably be more meaningful in deterring conflict or dampening its costs. Third, they could provide political and diplomatic support—signalling to Beijing that a conflict would harm its regional political standing.

For Quad members, the main goal would be to deter conflict in the first place, and, failing that, to preserve the long-term strategic partnership with India for the sake of maintaining as powerful and energetic a coalition as possible to counterbalance China in the long term.

 

11.  Ending Forever Wars But Not Interventionism: Rethinking U.S. Civil Society Assistance Policy

warontherocks.com · by Davin O’Regan · June 30, 2021

Excerpts: “Reducing direct on-the-ground political interventions in other countries may lessen concerns among critical partners, such as India, and mitigate claims by Russia and China about U.S. meddling in the domestic affairs of other states. Changes to U.S. civil society assistance are not going to immediately transform relations with Russia, China, and others. These countries in particular will likely continue targeting advocacy groups and activists and probably attempt campaigns of interference in foreign states. But over time it may also reduce fears that the United States is trying to advance regime change as a strategic objective, concerns that may be motivating harsh anti-nongovernmental organization laws and stoking bilateral tensions.

These are not easy recommendations to make, and much of this analysis makes me uneasy. I have had the privilege to meet with and learn from civil society leaders and activists who work in challenging environments to advance meaningful progressive reforms that I wholeheartedly support. They are always inspiring, innovative, and courageous, and so it is difficult to conclude that their support should sometimes be curtailed.

But while I usually share this vision, I am not surprised if their compatriots and governments raise an eyebrow over their work and motives. U.S. foreign assistance for civil society could be interpreted as a form of political intervention – and U.S. rhetoric on regime change fails to ease such concerns. Consistent with a growing impetus for a more careful U.S. foreign policy, it may be time for more restraint in U.S. engagement with civil society groups in other countries.

 

12. Gradually and Then Suddenly: Explaining the Navy’s Strategic Bankruptcy

warontherocks.com · by Christopher Dougherty · June 30, 2021

Certainly a provocative headline (thanks to Hemmingway).

Excerpts:  “The problems facing the Navy weren’t created in a single budget, and they won’t be fixed in a single budget. To get the Navy out of its force-planning doldrums, the next National Defense Strategy should clarify its assessment of the China challenge and serve as a forcing function to create a shared vision of the future Navy. The 2018 defense strategy tried to prioritize modernizing the Navy to deter future war with China over building near-term fleet capacity to supply ships to service geographic combatant command requests for forward forces. This prioritization got lost in implementation, as “Dynamic Force Employment” became shorthand for running the Navy ragged with repeated deployments, often to tertiary theaters like U.S. Central Command.

A clear assessment of the China challenge and a shared vision for the future fleet would help improve the gap between strategy and implementation that plagued the 2018 strategy. Perhaps more importantly, it would enable Navy and department leadership to work with, rather than against, Congress to undertake a long-term program to rebuild the Navy and reinvigorate the maritime industrial base on which the Navy and the nation depend.

Achieving consensus on this won’t be easy, as there are good reasons why China observers vary in their assessments of the risk of conflict and why U.S. naval and defense strategists differ on their visions of the future fleet. However, without this consensus and a concerted effort to reverse decades of drift, the Navy will continue its gradual slide toward strategic bankruptcy, and the risk of its debts coming due suddenly (and perhaps violently) will increase.

 

13.China-Russia: A Strategic Partnership Short on Strategy

thediplomat.com · by Nicholas Trickett · June 30, 2021

Concussion: "The Sino-Russian relationship, nothing like an “alliance,” will continue to endure and in some ways deepen. Chinese firms are still interested in Russia’s human capital and natural resources and Russian firms and investors want to find growth in China’s market. The Putin-Xi meeting, however, emphasized performance over substance, limited by domestic political considerations and the scope of the two countries’ mutual interests. There’s a sense that there is no clear consensus over what order in Central Asia and Eurasia more broadly ought to look like, nor any attempt to show that it’s not just the world’s democracies talking a mean game about coordinating climate efforts. Instead, China and Russia continue their repeated focus on presenting a united front against the dominance of American and transatlantic power – without reflecting on what that power is actually doing right now."

 

14.  The Case Against the Concept of Great Power Competition

thestrategybridge.org · by Matej Kandrík · June 30, 2021

A view from the Czech Republic.

Forceful conclusion: “What is the added value of Great Power Competition?

The failure of great power competition as a concept is almost absolute. Great Power Competition exploits intuitive or implicit understanding of what great powers are, while it gives no solid clues on what actors should policy makers consider relevant and why. States compete all the time. Competition is something states naturally do in a quest for security, prosperity, and prestige. Still, competition is hardly a defining feature of how states seek to achieve or secure their interests. States employ unique blends of cooperative, competitive, and conflict interactions vis their partner, rivals, and adversaries. Great power competition provides close to zero helpful guidance on how decision-makers should act and, most importantly, what they should seek through competition with others. Based on this assessment, great power competition seems like a hollow, unhelpful, and even an eventually dangerous bumper sticker slogan.

 

15. Party-to-party diplomacy: the Chinese strategy for crafting its own narratives

indianexpress.com · by Shikha Aggarwal · June 30, 2021

A view from India.

Excerpts: “A prominent strategy employed by the CCP to advance its role in global politics is “party-to-party diplomacy” through which the CCP manufactures consent for Beijing-led narratives, geo-strategic constructs and China’s global ambitions among political elites and parties in other countries. The party organ dedicated to this enterprise is the International Department (IDCPC).

The IDCPC is one of the five principal bodies that operate directly under the CCP Central Committee and has so far established relations with more than 400 political parties and organisations in over 140 countries.

 

16. U.S. military commander in Afghanistan warns of possible civil war

The Washington Post · by Pamela ConstableJune · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “Another obstacle to a peaceful settlement of the war, he said, is the persistent discord and political factionalism within the Afghan government and political elite. Ethnic and personal rivalries have led to constant policy changes and turnover in senior military and civilian posts, weakening confidence among civilians and morale in the defense forces.

Miller did not comment directly on the likelihood that the Ghani government could collapse as soon as six months after the U.S. troop withdrawal, but he said it was crucial for government officials and rival political leaders to “unify” as the war intensifies and hopes for peace fade. Otherwise, he said, “I see very tough times ahead.”

 

17. Taiwan Sovereignty Key to Western Pacific Security, Says Japanese Defense Official

news.usni.org · by John Grady · June 28, 2021

A significant statement.

 

18. 'This means war': China warns US over military ties with Taipei

americanmilitarynews.com · by Avik Roy - Hindustan Times · June 29, 2021

 

19. Have Biden and Trump Altered a Core Theory of Political Science?

The National Interest · by Jeffrey Stacey · June 29, 2021

Some interesting political theory analysis.

 

-------------------

 

"Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other." 

- John F. Kennedy

 

"All great masters are chiefly distinguished by the power of adding a second, a third and perhaps a fourth step in a continuous line. Many a man had taken the first step. With every additional step you enhance immensely the value of your first." 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile." 

- Albert Einstein

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Report on 2nd Enlarged Meeting of Political Bureau of 8th C.C., WPK

2.  Aides 'Begged Kim Jong-un to Lose Weight'

3. N.K. leader says 'crucial case' has happened due to lapses in anti-epidemic efforts

4. No. of N.K. defectors entering resettlement center drops 85 pct on year to 57 in first half

5. Kim vents wrath over some Covid-related problem

6. U.S. respects South's opting out of military exercises

7. Upgrading our diplomacy (South Korea)

8. The North Korean Nuclear Arsenal

9. Does Biden have a North Korea policy? Not really

10. Clock ticking for Seoul's last-ditch efforts to thaw inter-Korean ties

11. North Korea orders the release of military rice stores to general population

12. North Korea moves to significantly reorganize command structure of the Strategic Force

13. North Korea’s Kim warns of ‘grave incident’ in fight against the coronavirus

14. American student David Sneddon did not die in China, family says

15. The Ultimate Pandora's Box: What If North Korea Collapsed?

16. North Korea Orders Nationwide School Renovations, Sends Bill to Parents

 

1. Report on 2nd Enlarged Meeting of Political Bureau of 8th C.C., WPK

kcnawatch.org

This is the statement that is getting a lot of press. One of the significant areas of speculation from this is that there is major COVID outbreak in the north that the regime may not be able to control. I have seen no open source reporting on this possibility.

Excerpts: “The respected General Secretary made an important conclusion.

Saying that the importance of the responsibility and role of senior officials including members of the Party central leadership organ and officials of units at all levels has become further salient after the 8th Congress of the Party, he referred to the necessity to put primary efforts into the work of building up the ranks of cadres into an elite force as the revolution advances and the situation gets grave, and to the major orientation of improving the cadres policy of our Party.

He expressed the opinion of the Party Central Committee concerning the seriousness of the acts alien to the Party revealed by the senior officials of the Party and the state.

He seriously pointed out that chronic irresponsibility and incompetence of cadres at present bring artificial difficulties to the implementation of the Party's policies and become a major brake doing tremendous harm to the development of the revolutionary work, stressing the need for the cadres to make increasingly exact demands on themselves and fulfill their responsibility and duty with high sense of extreme responsibility and practical ability.

He severely criticized the attitude of working like a flash in the pan, empiricism and old way of thinking generally revealed among cadres.

 

2. Aides 'Begged Kim Jong-un to Lose Weight'

english.chosun.com · June 29, 2021

It will be interesting to see how long the propaganda effort will play out and what will be the continued messaging. And then it will be interesting to see how they handle it when he regains the weight.

 

3.  N.K. leader says 'crucial case' has happened due to lapses in anti-epidemic efforts

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 30, 2021

I hope we are paying close attention to the potential for an outbreak within the military.

Of course, this could all be part of a Propaganda and agitation Department effort to shape the information conditions for Kim to be able to make demands of the international community and especially the US and the ROK to provide concessions and most importantly sanctions relief.

And COVID will likely be the excuse for the continued stonewalling on any kind of north-south engagement and a return to nuclear negotiations. 

 

4. No. of N.K. defectors entering resettlement center drops 85 pct on year to 57 in first half

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 30, 2021

I am sure the draconian population and resources control measures implemented by the regime to mitigate the effects of COVID is likely a contributing factor.

 

5.  Kim vents wrath over some Covid-related problem

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · by  Sarah Kim · June 30, 2021

It is still a mystery what is that "crucial case" that caused a "great crisis" endangering the safety of the country."

Yes, all the speculation is about COVID. So what is the "crucial case?"

 

6. U.S. respects South's opting out of military exercises

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · June 30, 2021

At first I thought this was about opting out of the August combined exercises but this is about withdrawing from the Black Sea exercise Sea Breeze 21. 

I am disappointed as this was an opportunity for Korea to participate in an exercise with like-minded democracies and to demonstrate its military capabilities as a strong middle power. The Moon administration's timidity is not helpful.

 

7. Upgrading our diplomacy

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Wi Sung-lac · June 30, 2021

I have had the honor to work with Ambassador Wi on a number of Track II projects and in many conferences.

Excerpts: “South Korea may belong to the G7 league in economics, but it needs to build up its diplomatic capabilities.

Moon has attended a G7 summit with such intrinsic problems. They didn’t matter so much since his role had been restricted to a guest. But Korea joined the Open Societies Statement that included declarations on open markets, democracy and human rights issues aimed at China and Russia. The mention of the North Korean nuclear threat did not comply with South Korean views. If Seoul continues activities within the G7 without minding those gaps, it may not be able to last in the framework.

There must be efforts to advance diplomatic capabilities. Korean diplomacy focused on domestic views, politics and the Korean Peninsula should be broadened to the international context. The conservatives and liberals must agree on policies on North Korea and China. A national consensus must be built on a future-oriented relationship with Japan.

Such a policy shift would be tantamount to a comprehensive reform of Korean diplomacy. Diplomatic reform has been long overdue. Now that Korea has ascended to the ranks of the G7, discussions on diplomatic reform must start. Although the work should start immediately, it cannot be expected by an administration with one year left. The work will have to be taken up by the next administration. Presidential aspirants must pay attention to the need for reform in diplomacy.

Korean diplomacy cannot truly represent Korea’s stature today. It must be radically upgraded to stand on par with other G7 members. A social consensus also must be built for diplomatic reform through the momentum of G7 participation.

 

8. The North Korean Nuclear Arsenal

realcleardefense.com · by Mark B. Schneider

Excerpts: “There is no fixed quantity of fissile material for a nuclear weapon. The amount necessary depends on the type of weapon (fission, boosted fission [use of fusion reactions to boost the yield of the fission device] or fission-fusion or thermonuclear weapons, all of which North Korea has reportedly tested). The amount required depends on the objective for the weapon, its desired yield, its size and weight, the design approach and the technology available, including the high explosive implosion system. However, to assume that every North Korean nuclear weapon requires 16-20 kilograms of HEU is not credible.

While the Chinese were open to Reed and Stillman about their assistance to Pakistan and North Korea, the content of their book, important as it is, is dated. Assuming 16 -20 kg of HEU is necessary in a nuclear bomb could result in a considerable underestimate of North Korean and Iranian nuclear weapons numbers.

There is a good case to be made for a serious study, with ample representation by scientists and engineers from the nuclear weapons laboratories, to look at the assumptions being made about fissile material requirements and related issues for rogue state nuclear weapons. This is an important issue for the Biden administration’s nuclear posture review.

 

9. Does Biden have a North Korea policy? Not really

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · June 30, 2021

My assessment of the Biden policy is that it is practical and principled diplomacy (the Administration's words) that provides the opportunity for KimJong-un to act as a responsible member of the international community and come to the table to negotiate denuclearization and all related security and engagement issues. The US is willing to negotiate without any pre-conditions.

It does not give Kim a pass. It will not provide concessions until there is substantive progress. The policy calls for the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions; the dismantlement of North Korea’s missile and nuclear arsenals; accountability for human rights; and halting Pyongyang’s global illicit activities, malicious cyber operations, and proliferation. And perhaps most importantly it will continue sanctions enforcement. The policy rests on the foundation of strong alliances and "stern deterrence."

Although it is not the strategic patience of the Obama administration, COVID 19 and the nature of the north Korean regime appear to prevent near term engagement and negotiation. On the other hand "stern deterrence “is not fire and fury but a demonstration of strategic determination and strategic resolve through combined military strength on the Korean peninsula and in the region. It will also not be the "grand bargains" of the Clinton and Bush eras nor the fire and fury and unconventional, experimental top-down, pen-pal diplomacy of the Trump administration.

So what is the new policy?

We should recall Dr. Kurt Campbell's interview with Yonhap last month:

·     On May 19, 2021 Dr. Kurt Campbell provided the a look at what might be the major elements of the policy that can be described as practical diplomacy.

o  "Importantly: Our policy towards North Korea is not aimed at hostility, it's aimed at solutions. It's aimed at ultimately achieving the complete de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," Campbell said in the exclusive interview with Yonhap.

o  "And we're prepared to engage in diplomacy towards that ultimate objective, but work on practical measures that can help us make progress along the way towards that goal," he said.

o  After concluding its policy review on the North, the Biden administration said that the new policy will seek a "calibrated, practical approach that is open to and will explore diplomacy" with North Korea.

o  Most importantly he said he stated policy would build on the Singapore Agreement.

We should also recall President Biden's own remarks last October when he was candidate Biden:

o  Out of the ashes of war, South Korea has shown the world the "miracle of the Han River," becoming a shining example of a flourishing democracy and economic powerhouse. It has been a global leader in the fight against COVID-19; and a strong ally in the region, to advance our shared prosperity, values, and security, and to meet global challenges.

 

o  Words matter -- and a president's words matter even more. As President, I'll stand with South Korea, strengthening our alliance to safeguard peace in East Asia and beyond, rather than extorting Seoul with reckless threats to remove our troops. I'll engage in principled diplomacy and keep pressing toward a denuclearized North Korea and a unified Korean Peninsula, while working to reunite Korean Americans separated from loved ones in North Korea for decades. 

The policy also calls for "building on" the Panmunjom and Singapore summit.

The four points from the Singapore statement:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new U.S.–DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.

2. The United States and the DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

Lastly, President Biden's words tell us that he will maintain deterrence and defense as the foundation: "On Iran and North Korea — nuclear programs that present serious threats to American security and the security of the world — we’re going to be working closely with our allies to address the threats posed by both of these countries through di- — through diplomacy, as well as stern deterrence." 

So what will we call this policy is not a grand bargain, not strategic deterrence, not fire and fury, and not unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy? Note that none these names were given by the previous administrations as official names of the policies but instead were coined by pundits and the press (less strategic patience by the late Stephen Bosworth.

The Biden administration should consider some names to describe the policy both to prevent the pundits and press from developing derogatory names and to help that policy narrative.

Some basic descriptions could include these but I am sure the smart policy people at State and the NSC can come up with some effective names.

• Principled, Practical Diplomacy and Stern Deterrence
• Solutions Diplomacy Based on Strength
• Options Diplomacy and Stern Deterrence

 

10.  Clock ticking for Seoul's last-ditch efforts to thaw inter-Korean ties

The Korea Times · Name Hyun-woo · June 30, 2021

I think the Moon administration must come to the realization that Kim Jong-un is not going to engage any time soon both because of COVID and because of his nature and the political warfare strategy he is executing. Certainly there can be no breakthrough between now and the South Korean presidential election in March.

The Moon administration tried almost everything and has been making good faith efforts to engage for the past few years. But it is not the Moon administration's fault. That lies squarely on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un.

I recommend the Moon administration shift its narrative to explaining to the Korean people why engagement was not possible and expose KIm Jong-un. One of the best things the Moon administration could do is to remind the Korean people in the South and north about the nature, objectives, and strategy of t Kim Jong-un as well as the evil doings of the Kim family regime. The Korean people in the South have grown complacent not only about the threat from the north but about any contingency that might arise from whatever happens inside north Korea. It is time for the administration to have a frank conversation with the Korean people in the South about the regime in the north.

 

11.  North Korea orders the release of military rice stores to general population

dailynk.com · Lee Chae Un · June 30, 2021

An important indicator of the situation in the north.

Okay but here is a buried lede.Has the regime implemented a new concept: "people-first politics?" Is this supposed to replace songun (military first politics) and byungjin (simultaneous nuclear and economic development)? Or is this just another propaganda effort for the people in the north? (most likely in my opinion). 

North Korea’s leadership may soon release plans to deal with the country’s electricity and water woes given that it is focused on bolstering internal solidarity through “people-first politics.”

 I did find this article in KCNA from February. But does this mean anything more than a change in propaganda themes and messages?

 

12. North Korea moves to significantly reorganize command structure of the Strategic Force

dailynk.com · June 30, 2021

We should take this with a grain of salt since it is from the Daily NK and it is not known for military analysis. That said this could be an important development.

 

13. North Korea’s Kim warns of ‘grave incident’ in fight against the coronavirus

The Washington Post · by Simon Denyer· June 30, 2021

Inquiring minds what to know. What is the "grave incident?"

 

14. American student David Sneddon did not die in China, family says

UPI  · by Elizabeth Shim · June 29, 2021

A story that does not often make the news. But we should not forget what happened to David Sneddon.

We have become numb to the abduction but the fact is Koreans, Japanese, and Americans have been kidnapped by the evil Kim family regime with most never being heard from again.

 

15. The Ultimate Pandora's Box: What If North Korea Collapsed?

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · June 29, 2021

Be careful what you ask for.

But I am glad to see this key reference linked in this piece. This is one of the most critical aspects of being prepared for any contingency in north Korea - from war to collapse to unification, it is the least costly, and could have a huge payoff if we (specifically the ROK/US alliance as the "we') invest in it now: An Information Based Strategy to Reduce North Korea’s Increasing Threat: Recommendations for ROK & U.S. Policy Makers 

 

16. North Korea Orders Nationwide School Renovations, Sends Bill to Parents

rfa.org · by Myungchul Lee

"People-first politics?" Perhaps it means the people pay first (last and always).

 

---------------

 

"Leadership and learning are indispensable to each other." 

- John F. Kennedy

 

"All great masters are chiefly distinguished by the power of adding a second, a third and perhaps a fourth step in a continuous line. Many a man had taken the first step. With every additional step you enhance immensely the value of your first." 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile." 

- Albert Einstein

Access the tracker HERE.

June 29, 2021 | FDD Tracker: June 15 – 29, 2021

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late June

Trend Overview

Edited by David Adesnik

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker, where FDD’s experts and scholars assess the administration’s foreign policy every two weeks. As always, they provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they study. As the reporting window closed for this issue of the tracker, President Joe Biden ordered airstrikes on Iran-backed militias responsible for persistent attacks on U.S. troops and facilities in Iraq. These attacks, along with the rigged election that elevated human rights violator Ebrahim Raisi to the Iranian presidency, underscore the extent to which Tehran has responded to Washington’s goodwill gestures by escalating tensions. Meanwhile, at his first summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Biden sought to de-escalate U.S.-Russian tensions while warning against Russian cyberattacks and other threats. So far, there is no indication that Putin is prepared to give any ground on cyber issues, human rights, or the detention of U.S. citizens. Washington and Moscow are also headed toward a showdown at the UN Security Council as Russia threatens to veto aid for millions of Syrian civilians. Check back in two weeks to see if the two sides avoided a clash and whether Tehran remains intransigent.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The lawfulness of the airstrikes on Iranian-proxy militia drone facilities…and more about the growing drone threat

2. Marine who was shot is newlywed son of former Pentagon official

3. It’s imminent: After nearly 20 years US to leave Bagram

4. Former Green Beret, son, apologize to Tokyo court for role in Ghosn escape

5. Deep inside China’s perfect surveillance state

6. Reading Between the Lines of the CCP’s Centennial Propaganda Blitz

7. Getting Out of Iran's Way

8. Report estimates major cyberattack could cost more than recovering from natural disasters

9. ‘A Form of Brainwashing’: China Remakes Hong Kong

10. Re-Thinking the Strategic Approach to Asymmetrical Warfare

11. More than Just Friends: The Strategic Advantage of Enduring Relationships

12. Sullivan Becomes First Woman to Command an SFAB Battalion

13. Analysis | Biden’s lose-lose game in Afghanistan

14. Italy Says Its Relations With U.S. Far More Important Than With China

15. A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia

16. 1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory

17. Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree

 

SPECIAL: FDD Foreign Policy Tracker

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker · FDD Staff · June 29, 2021

Access the tracker and each subject area at this link.

 

1. The lawfulness of the airstrikes on Iranian-proxy militia drone facilities…and more about the growing drone threat

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap · June 28, 2021

We can always count on Maj Gen Dunlap for sound legal and strategic analysis. He always tackles the tough and critical issues.

 

2. Marine who was shot is newlywed son of former Pentagon official

Daily Mail · by Melissa Koenig · June 28, 2021

First for all my Special Forces brothers note the Marine is the son-in-law of COL Jack Jensen. He reported on Facebook that his son-in-law will be okay and was not sure why the Daily Mail chose to make this about him as well as his daughter and son-in-law.

Second, this article delves into crime statistics as well as the details of the shooting.

 

3. It’s imminent: After nearly 20 years US to leave Bagram

militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · June 29, 2021

One of many concerns: “Roggio says the status of the prison is a “major concern,” noting that many of its prisoners are known Taliban leaders or members of militant groups, including al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. It’s believed about 7,000 prisoners are still in the prison.

“If the base falls and the prison is overrun, these detainees can bolster the ranks of these terror groups,” Roggio said.

 

4. Former Green Beret, son, apologize to Tokyo court for role in Ghosn escape

armytimes.com · by Yuri Kageyama · June 29, 2021

This is why the Japanese courts have such a high conviction rate. They do not go to trial until the defendant is willing to apologize and show remorse. One of our NCOs spent about 20 days in a Japanese prison after he was apprehended drunk and damaging a local police chief's car (with the chief's daughter and boyfriend in the car while it happened about 4am - it took 3 Marine MPs and a handful of Japanese policemen to subdue him). Despite us making restitution and apologies for his actions and he himself apologizing he spent the maximum time in jail because as the Japanese told us there was a recently leaked email in which a senior US military officer called the Okinawans "wimps and nuts" so he was being held as a "political pawn." When he was released the NCO told me that he was glad he had been through SERE training because he experienced many similar techniques.

 

5. Deep inside China’s perfect surveillance state

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 29, 2021

And China wants to export these capabilities. 

 

6.  Reading Between the Lines of the CCP’s Centennial Propaganda Blitz

thediplomat.com · by Sarah Cook · June 29, 2021

Excerpts: “But these traditional exercises have been supplemented with new elements that seem aimed at saturating the public consciousness and people’s conversations, while reinforcing Xi’s position as the country’s paramount leader. A massive public education campaign focused on CCP history was launched in February. It included the release of 80 national propaganda slogans – including several with Xi at the center – a scale that the China Media Project described as “unprecedented in the reform era.”

Particular energy has been devoted to ensuring that the younger generations “inherit red genes.” For example, propaganda officials have launched 200 social media accounts designed to influence university students, and the party has developed various interactive educational materials like web portals, televised knowledge competitions, and animated shorts. A new history academy founded in 2019 has been posting punchy updates to Chinese social media platforms and using online marketing tactics alongside more staid academic-style publications. A hip-hop brand published a rap video in which 100 artists, including several high-profile performers, joined forces to tout the CCP’s accomplishments.

By infusing reminders of the CCP’s dominance into practically every facet of Chinese society and daily life, from history and culture to popular entertainment, the regime is advancing one of the central goals of these campaigns: to reinforce the perception that China as a nation is indistinguishable from the Chinese Communist Party.

 

7. Getting Out of Iran's Way

thedispatch.com · by Bradley Bowman

Excerpts: “The selection of Raisi—an ultra-hardline cleric responsible for the mass execution of dissidents—provides a timely reminder as to the nature of the regime in Tehran, the threat it represents, and the continued requirement for forward-positioned U.S. forces in the Middle East.

Raisi’s revolutionary resume stands out due to his participation in a four-person “death commission” that oversaw the execution of an estimated 5,000 political prisoners in the late 1980s. And the passage of time has apparently not encouraged any contrition from Raisi. During his first post-election press conference on Monday, Raisi was asked about his role in the mass murders. “I have always defended people’s rights,” he responded. “Human rights have been a pivotal point for me.”

That retort likely pleased Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As Iran’s “most important voter,” Khamenei sees elections as a way to squeeze the already narrow political spectrum in the country. A reported 592 candidates registered for the election, but only seven were approved to run by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates for public office and is loyal to Khamenei. Given his age, 82, Khamenei was eager to use the election to cement the hardline domination of Iran’s institutions and keep the country on its revolutionary trajectory even after his death.

...

Accordingly, as Biden implements his military withdrawal from Afghanistan, conditions there are unsurprisingly and tragically deteriorating quickly. As we saw in Iraq, don’t be surprised if American forces are forced to return to Afghanistan soon—perhaps even in a matter of months.

If the Biden administration brings a similar approach to the Islamic Republic of Iran and U.S. military posture in the Middle East more generally, don’t expect a better result. Ignoring the nature and objectives of the adversary, neglecting continued threats to core American interests in the Middle East, and failing to maintain a well-designed forward-based military posture there will simply leave Tehran increasingly unchecked as it sows terrorism around the region and targets Americans, Arabs, and Israelis.

Given the Islamic Republic of Iran’s consistent track record over the last four decades, the burden of proof clearly rests on anyone who suggests we will see a dramatic departure in the regime’s oppression of the Iranian people, instinctual hostility to America, and systematic support for terrorism.

If you doubt that argument, simply look at who the regime just picked as its president and what he said last week.

 

8. Report estimates major cyberattack could cost more than recovering from natural disasters

The Hill · by Maggie Miller · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The report calls on Congress to approve a national breach notification law to force companies to require companies hit by a cyberattack, regardless of whether customer data was impacted, to report the breach.

Lawmakers are looking at doing just that. A draft bill from Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner (D-Va.), Vice Chairman Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) includes language requiring federal agencies, federal contractors, and owners and operators of critical infrastructure to report cybersecurity incidents within 24 hours to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.

Rubio told The Hill last week that the bill would likely be formally introduced “probably the first week” when the Senate returns from the July 4 recess.

 

9. ‘A Form of Brainwashing’: China Remakes Hong Kong

The New York Times · by Alexandra Stevenson · June 29, 2021

Authoritarian rule. China wants to export it. My summary of the Chinese strategy: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

 

10.  Re-Thinking the Strategic Approach to Asymmetrical Warfare

militarystrategymagazine.com · by Daniel Riggs · June 28, 2021

An interesting article that really focuses on the human domain to include discussion of the Asymmetric Warfare Group.

It reminds me that DOD seems to be jettisoning many organizations and projects that contribute to understanding the human domain which I would argue is most important within great power competition. We have disbanded the Asymmetric Warfare Group. We have ended funding for the University of Foreign and Cultural Studies at Fort Leavenworth. This includes ending the renowned Red Team Leaders Course (I have heard there is talk within the that the course can be replaced by a contract with the McChrystal Group). USASOC has cut funding for the Assessing Revolutionary and Insurgent Strategies project. Collectively this indicates a declining focus on the human domain.

 

11. More than Just Friends: The Strategic Advantage of Enduring Relationships

mwi.usma.edu · by Marshall McGurk · June 29, 2021

More perspective on the human domain. We must build, sustain, and advance our relationships with friends, partners, and allies.

My personal experience with IMET in 1985 is illustrative. I met Captain Alexander Yano from the Philippines there. We became friends. His mentor was then Captain Joe Votel. Years later I met him in the Philippines when conducting Special Forces training and when we deployed to Mindanao in 2001 just after 9-11 for our our initial assessment (TCAV) he was waiting for us as we got off the rap ofhe MC-130 as he was Commander of Task Force Zamboanga. He would always ask me what Joe Votel was doing (at 9-11 he was commanding the 75th Ranger Regiment). When I returned later as the commander of the JSOTF he was the Army Chief and went on to become the Chief of the Philippine Armed Forces. Our relationship was very helpful in achieving our objectives.

Conclusion: “Without establishing personal, institutional, and programmatic relationships with strategic partners, the United States is at risk of continuing the costly boom-and-bust cycle of American investments in blood and treasure. Decision makers will be left without on-the-ground information from advisors and trainers. Even worse, without relationships in place, the United States will not be able to call upon friends or provide an agile response when crises or conflicts occur. The return on investment is worth it. To paraphrase SOF Truth #4, quality relationships cannot be created after emergencies occur. The best time to establish relationships with strategic partners and their military leaders was twenty years ago. The second-best time is now.

 

12. Sullivan Becomes First Woman to Command an SFAB Battalion

army.mil

The commander has had an impressive career and is one of the few commanders who have the opportunity for a second battalion command. That has been traditionally limited to the Ranger Battalions for a second command.

Excerpt: “Sullivan is a graduate of the United States Military Academy and has served numerous operational deployments with the 82nd Airborne Division, 101st Airborne and Combined Joint Special Operations Task-Force Afghanistan. She has also completed the U.S. Army's School of Advanced Military Studies program, in addition to completing airborne and jumpmaster training.

 

13. Analysis | Biden’s lose-lose game in Afghanistan

The Washington Post · by Ishaan Tharoor · June 28, 2021

Excerpts: “But Biden’s decision to withdraw reflects a widespread strategic impatience with the U.S. mission. “We have provided the Afghan people the blood of thousands [of] our finest men and women, hundreds of billions of our citizens’ dollars, and nearly 20 years for the Afghan government to have gotten its house in order and forged a negotiated settlement with the insurgents,” wrote Daniel Davis, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who deployed twice to Afghanistan. “They have squandered that opportunity.”

Afghans may counter that the price they have paid in blood is far steeper — and that heavy-handed U.S. military action has, on numerous occasions, added to the civilian toll. What is clear is that the United States is a party to cycles of conflict in the war-ravaged country that long predated 9/11 and will continue after the United States withdraws its main troop presence. The Biden administration will push for a negotiated peace between Ghani’s government and the Taliban, but diplomatic efforts remain stalled as the Taliban press their battlefield advantage. A diverse set of regional powers — including China, Pakistan, India and Russia — may all variously attempt to help broker some sort of reconciliation between the ultraconservative Taliban and the Afghan government.

 

14. Italy Says Its Relations With U.S. Far More Important Than With China

US News and World Reports

You do not read something like this very often.

 

15. A Confused Biden Team Risks Losing Southeast Asia

Foreign Policy · by James Crabtree · June 27, 2021

Obviously not a good sign.

Excerpts: “The region should matter in Washington. It contains two U.S. allies: the Philippines and Thailand. There are other major partners too, including Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Yet economic ties in all these countries have shifted toward China as of late. Closer diplomatic ties are likely to follow in many cases, absent concerted U.S. action. Few regional policymakers relish a possible future under China’s sway and mostly want to maintain a balance between the two superpowers—which means they want the United States to stay closely engaged in regional affairs. But it is for precisely this reason that Southeast Asia is so attuned to signs of distraction or muddled thinking in Washington.

Blinken’s technical snafu hardly helped. Beyond the show of sheer incompetence, the fact that Blinken was skipping the ASEAN meeting to head to Israel only acted as a reminder that U.S. commitments elsewhere distract attention from Asia. Despite more talk of a new focus on the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. Defense Department also moved its only aircraft carrier in the western Pacific region last month back to support U.S. troops leaving Afghanistan, sending an equally confusing signal. Individual countries have similar stories, including Indonesia, the region’s largest economy. Its foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, recently headed to the United States for a United Nations meeting on Palestine. While there, she failed to secure a meeting with Blinken, causing embarrassment in Jakarta.

The first and most obvious problem: Washington lacks an economic agenda for the region.

 

16. 1 truth and 3 lies about Critical Race Theory

popular.info · by Judd Legum

Obviously an extremely controversial and politically sensitive topic. But this article is a useful explainer.

 

17.  Democracies Don’t Try to Make Everyone Agree

The Atlantic · by Anne Applebaum · June 28, 2021

The subtitle says it all.

Conclusion (with which i concur): “But to maintain that flexibility, a liberal-democratic society absolutely requires that its citizens experience a liberal education, one that teaches students, scholars, readers, and voters to keep looking at books, history, society, and politics from different points of view. If one of our two great political parties no longer believes in this principle—and if some of our scholars don’t either—then how much longer can we expect our democracy to last?

 

--------------

 

"Nothing is impossible, the word itself says, “I’m possible!”" - Audrey Hepburn

 

The ROK Army Special Warfare Command motto: 안 되면 되게 하라 (English: Make the Impossible Possible)  

 

"The majority of people are timid by nature, and that is why they constantly exaggerate danger. all influences on the military leader, therefore, combine to give him a false impression of his opponent's strength, and from this arises a new source of indecision."

- Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

2. U.S. House bill could restrict troop drawdown to 22,000

3.  Outgoing USFK commander vows to continue support for alliance

4. World needs global Korea

5. Can Biden Solve the North Korea Puzzle?

6. Learning lessons from Israel, South Korea is developing its own 'Iron Dome' to defend itself against the North's artillery

7. South Korea police investigating treason charges against president

8. North Korea calls attention to new beachside 'holiday camp'

9. K-drama takes a dark turn

10. Is North Korea Inching Closer to Instability?

11. Unprepared war (Korea)

12. Elderly members of Socialist Women's Union mobilized to take part in farm work

13. N. Korea builds apartments on site for late founder's house

14. UN provided $5.9m to North Korea to tackle food shortages

15. North Korea rails against women using nannies to take care of their children

16. Demographics and the Future of South Korea

 

Special FDD Korea Analysis

FDD · by David Maxwell and Mathew Ha

Previous Trend: Positive

The Biden administration’s decision to maintain all North Korea sanctions reinforces Washington’s comprehensive policy toward Pyongyang, which entails the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions; the dismantlement of North Korea’s missile and nuclear arsenals; accountability for human rights; and halting Pyongyang’s global illicit activities, malicious cyber operations, and proliferation.  (All analysis at the link)

 

1. South Korea sends troops, destroyer to US-Australia military exercise for first time

SCMP · by Park Chan-kyong · June 28, 2021

Not mentioned in these articles about ROK participation in Talisman Sabre is that the ROK is also participating in the exercise Sea Breeze 21 which is taking place in the Black Sea. Given the location and the political situation with Russia I think it is also important to recognize the ROK participation there as well. Despite the concern with China (and the revisionist powers in general) it seems obvious that the ROK is aligning with like minded democracies around the world and is willing to demonstrate that alignment with action.

Sea Breeze 21 begins in the Black Sea after Russia threatens to fire on ‘intruding’ warships

 

2. U.S. House bill could restrict troop drawdown to 22,000

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · June 29, 2021

This caught me off guard and has me scratching my head. I believe the 22,000 number had been in an NDAA from a few years back. Is it perhaps a cut and paste mistake by the bill writers? Or is this intended to provide DOD with some flexibility that might be necessary to support the outcome of the global force policy review? Did DOD ask for this number? Do we intend to reduce troops on the Korean peninsula? I have heard no discussion of that (of course I would not if those discussions are classified). Does this provide flexibility to withdraw the Aviation brigade if it can no longer conduct sufficient training to ensure its air crews remain qualified and meet certification standards?

 

3.  Outgoing USFK commander vows to continue support for alliance

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 29, 2021

We have a history of former commanders remaining engaged to assist in sustaining the strength of the alliance. I hope General Abrams will continue that tradition.

 

4. World needs global Korea

The Korea Times · by Song Kyung-jin · June 29, 2021

A critical analysis of ROK participation in the G7 and its policies (or lack of).

The first sentence is very wise (even if it should be a BFO -blinding flash of the obvious): “Foreign policy becomes domestic policy only when it is presented with the right background, direction and information.”

Conclusion: “Absence of consistent policy stance is already wreaking havoc on Korea's credibility and integrity with confusing messages. A signatory Korea is expected to remain committed to the "Open Societies Statement" values, including human rights, freedom and democratic values. President Moon Jae-in's recent interview with Time magazine in which he assessed Kim Jong-un as "very honest … very enthusiastic [and] one with strong determination" who has "a good idea of what is going on around the world" yet again surprised many at home and abroad. It did not take long for other democracies and like-minded countries to become perplexed with Korea's lack of interest in cooperation with regards to the Indo-Pacific, shying away from its commitment in Cornwall.

Korea with its strategic importance and economic capacity is called to become more engaged in global affairs ensuring the democratic values and the rules-based international order than it has for some time. The intensifying U.S.-China rivalry and the disappointing performance of the G20 may likely give way to the G7 for a brief time. But the U.S.-China rivalry means not only U.S.-China competition but also U.S.-China cooperation. Also, the upcoming G20 summit hosted by Italy will mark a watershed in making the G20 still a relevant forum for global cooperation. Korea must give some hard thought to how to make effective contributions to revitalizing the G20, revamping global trade out of the doldrums, tackling the COVID-19 pandemic and building a dynamic global and regional infrastructure architecture, for instance.

The world needs a more global Korea than ever before, not a retreating Korea. Delivering its commitments, proposing a relevant agenda and making it a domestic one with solid support from the public will be the backbone of a global Korea.

 

5.  Can Biden Solve the North Korea Puzzle?

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer · June 28, 2021

As I will continue to beat the drum - the Biden policy offers Kim the chance to act as a responsible member of the international community. It is up to him to take advantage of the opportunity.

But north Korea is not a puzzle. I am confident the Biden administration has a realistic understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and is prepared to deal with it as it really is and not as it wishes it to be. It will act in good faith to give Kim the opportunity to negotiate and change but it will not be duped by Kim's long con, political warfare and blackmail diplomacy.

 

6. Learning lessons from Israel, South Korea is developing its own 'Iron Dome' to defend itself against the North's artillery

insider.com · by Cheryl Teh

 

7. South Korea police investigating treason charges against president

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

I have seen no other reporting on this in the Korean media. I was told by a friend these allegations were investigated and found not credible.

South Korea police investigating treason charges against president

 

8. North Korea calls attention to new beachside 'holiday camp'

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim

In the midst of COVID, the failed economy, and the massive suffering of the Korean people, this is what the regime focuses on.

I used to joke with my soldiers when we were reviewing plans for operations in north Korea. I would say that the priority was to secure a certain target because I planned to establish it as my retirement villa. I will have to rethink that and add this site to the target list.

 

9. K-drama takes a dark turn

lowyinstitute.org · by Nicole de Souza

More on Kim Jong-un's war on K-Drama and outside information and influence. 

 

10. Is North Korea Inching Closer to Instability?

The National Interest · by Chiew-Ping Hoo · June 28, 2021

Many authors are focusing on the possibility of regime instability.  It is good to see. Will decision makers heed the warning or fall back on the fact the north has demonstrated an unbelievable resilience and tolerance for pain for the past few decades and since it is not destabilized and collapse it may never do so.

As SunTzu said: "Never assume the enemy will not collapse. Make yourself invincible." Our north Korean corollary was: "Never assume the north will not become unstable and the regime will not collapse. Instead prepare your contingency plans." (not as pithy as Sun Tzu, I know)

 

11. Unprepared war (Korea)

donga.com · June 29, 2021

A historical reminder. Not the north's infiltration techniques. This is not an obsolete tactic.

 

12. Elderly members of Socialist Women's Union mobilized to take part in farm work

 dailynk.com · June 28, 2021

More on the brutal and inhumane nature of the Kim family regime. It is also an indicator of desperation.

 

13.  N. Korea builds apartments on site for late founder's house

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 29, 2021

An interesting development, I cannot yet figure out what this might mean. It will be interesting to see how the propaganda on this develops.

 

14.  UN provided $5.9m to North Korea to tackle food shortages

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · June 29, 2021

And do we have any idea of the effects of this aid?  

 

15. North Korea rails against women using nannies to take care of their children

dailynk.com · June 29, 2021

Would you leave your children at such facilities in these conditions?

The source said that the country’s leaders believe that mothers refuse to leave their children at daycare facilities because of “bad conditions,” namely that such places are “unhygienic, [too] cold, or [too] humid.” According to him, party officials harshly criticized this state of affairs as reflecting the “views held by local party managers toward [North Korea’s] future generations and the [North Korean] people.”

 

16. Demographics and the Future of South Korea

carnegieendowment.org · by Chung Min Lee, Kathryn Botto

A timely and important report.

You can access each of the topics at this link. 

 

----------------

 

"Nothing is impossible, the word itself says, “I’m possible!”" - Audrey Hepburn

 

The ROK Army Special Warfare Command motto: 안 되면 되게 하라 (English: Make the Impossible Possible)  

 

"The majority of people are timid by nature, and that is why they constantly exaggerate danger. all influences on the military leader, therefore, combine to give him a false impression of his opponent's strength, and from this arises a new source of indecision."

- Clausewitz