An interview with Michèle Flournoy, former USD-P, and Admiral (Ret.) Eric Olson, former USSOCOM commander

https://mwi.usma.edu/back-to-the-future-resetting-special-operations-forces-for-great-power-competition/

 

The Honorable Michèle Flournoy is the cofounder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors. She previously served as the under secretary of defense for policy in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2012, where she played a key role in formulating US strategy and policies that impacted SOF. Michèle is also the cofounder, and served as the chief executive officer, of the Center for a New American Security, a DC-based think tank.

Retired Admiral Eric Thor Olson was the eighth commander of United States Special Operations Command. Eric is a highly decorated Navy SEAL officer, having been awarded both a Silver Star and a Bronze Star for Valor, and was the first Navy SEAL appointed to the ranks of three-star and four-star admiral. At the time of his retirement, he was the longest-serving SEAL in the military.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Pentagon Seeks to Soften Blow of U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan

2. The many US blunders that contributed to looming disaster in Afghanistan

3. How the Afghanistan Withdrawal Costs the U.S. With China

4. Opinion - Why Is Biden’s Foreign Policy So… Conventional? - John Feffer

5. Facebook, Twitter, Google Threaten to Quit Hong Kong Over Proposed Data Laws

6. Biden administration still weighing CIA drone strike policy amid Afghanistan withdrawal

7.  AFSOC's Unique Array for Armed Overwatch Competition

8. Israel Takes U.S. Military Weapons And Makes Them Even Deadlier

9. Fond memories from a US military attache

10. The Chinese Communist Party is a secret society

11. Military braces for sea change on justice reform

12. China Copied and Stole Its Way to Becoming a Military Juggernaut

13. Where Is the Sage of Air Power Doctrine?

14. Radicalization Of Women A Worrying Trend – Analysis

15. Republicans have more friends across the political divide than Democrats, study finds

16. How Three Women Exposed an Army Lt. Colonel’s Crazy Secret Life

 

1. Pentagon Seeks to Soften Blow of U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Finally, having General Miller stay on a few more weeks, and extending the security umbrella at least through August, is intended to offer, if nothing else, a boost for beleaguered Afghan troops. Pentagon officials said that exiting Bagram Air Base and having General Miller leave at the same time would have been a devastating blow to Afghan morale.

“A safe, orderly drawdown enables us to maintain an ongoing diplomatic presence, support the Afghan people and the government, and prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threatens our homeland,” Mr. Kirby said.

The White House joined in the reassurance messaging campaign on Friday — up to a point. Mr. Biden said that even though the United States still retained the ability to conduct airstrikes to protect the Afghan government, no reversal of the withdrawal was on the table.

“We have worked out an over-the-horizon capacity,” he said, talking about American warplanes and armed Reaper drones based mainly in the Persian Gulf, “but the Afghans are going to have to do it themselves with the air force they have.”

But all American combat troops and aircraft are now out of Afghanistan, officials said, so any military support to the Afghan forces will have to come from American bases eight hours away in Qatar or the United Arab Emirates.

“Our leaving does not end the war. It just ends the American involvement,” said John R. Allen, a retired four-star Marine Corps general who commanded U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan from 2011 to 2013, and oversaw the beginning of the drawdown of allied forces there, from 150,000 troops to about 11,000, at the end of 2014. “The war will continue.”

 

2. The many US blunders that contributed to looming disaster in Afghanistan

CNN · by Peter Bergen

Excerpts: “Could there have been another way? Perhaps. It could have been more politically and financially sustainable to "go light and go long" in Afghanistan, keeping several thousand US troops in the country focused on counterterrorism operations and supporting the Afghan military, while emphasizing the US' commitment to stay in Afghanistan long-term. That commitment would have boosted the morale of the Afghan government and military and undercut the Taliban's view that they could simply wait out the Americans -- which they have done.

Now that Biden has finally done what two previous presidents have seriously considered, the likely result is that Afghanistan will descend into an intense civil war -- and every jihadist terrorist group in the world will find a congenial home in the ensuing chaos.

 

3. How the Afghanistan Withdrawal Costs the U.S. With China

defenseone.com · by Richard Fontaine and Vance Serchuk · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Yet history suggests that hoping for the best in the greater Middle East rarely works out well for the United States. It also reveals how unrest there can upend Washington’s best-laid designs. The Bush administration entered office expecting to devote its foreign policy to—you guessed it—the rise of China, only to be derailed by the 9/11 attacks. Twelve years later, the Obama administration likewise began its second term resolved to focus on Asia, only for the emergence of the Islamic State to end those ambitions. In this respect, an effective counterterrorism strategy in places like Afghanistan is not the enemy of a strong China policy, but the precondition for it.

To avoid a repetition of this history, the Biden administration now has little choice but to scramble for military and diplomatic work-arounds as a result of its own withdrawal policy. Hanging in the balance is not just homeland security against terrorism and the fundamental human rights of millions of Afghans threatened by the Taliban, but America’s own capacity for strategic coherence.

Indeed, it’s difficult to see how Washington will be able to sustain the case that countering Huawei and the Belt and Road Initiative ought to be its foremost national-security priorities in a world where transnational jihadists are once again on the march and millions of refugees are fleeing across international borders. Even with the threat of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State seemingly at an all-time low, in public polling Americans still consistently, on a bipartisan basis, identify countering terrorism as an equal if not greater foreign-policy priority than rivalry with Beijing. If Afghanistan again falls into instability, America’s ambition for great-power competition with China may prove among its many tragic and unnecessary casualties.

 

4. Opinion - Why Is Biden’s Foreign Policy So… Conventional? - John Feffer

commondreams.org  ·  by John Feffer

From a very progressive foreign policy analyst who has never seen a military budget that cannot be cut. Excerpts: “The administration’s position on military spending, however, suggests that Biden is wedded to the most conventional of thinking.

The United States is poised to end its intervention in Afghanistan and reduce its commitments in the Middle East. It is not involved in any major military conflicts. Everyone is wondering how the administration is going to pay for its ambitious infrastructure plans.

So, why has Biden asked for a larger military budget? The administration’s 2022 request for the Pentagon is $715 billion, an increase of $10 billion, plus an additional $38 billion for military-related spending at the Energy Department and other agencies.

True, the administration is hoping to boost non-military spending by a larger percentage. It is planning to remove the “overseas contingency operations” line item that funded the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

But if there ever was a time to reduce U.S. military spending, it’s now. The pandemic proved the utter worthlessness of tanks and destroyers in defending the homeland from the most urgent threats. Greater cooperation with China, a renewed nuclear pact with Iran, and détente with both Cuba and North Korea would all provide powerful reasons for the United States to reduce military spending.

 

5.  Facebook, Twitter, Google Threaten to Quit Hong Kong Over Proposed Data Laws

WSJ · by Newley Purnell

I wonder what kind of impact this might have on intelligence operations. Surely these services provide insight for intelligence analysis.

But of course these firms are at risk due to the Chinese "laws."

Hong Kong is no longer "free."

 

6. Biden administration still weighing CIA drone strike policy amid Afghanistan withdrawal

CNN · by Zachary Cohen, Natasha Bertrand and Katie Bo Williams, CNN

Excerpts: “What that capability would look like remains unclear. While there has been significant discussion by the administration about conducting "over the horizon" counter-terrorism missions from further away, those will not be nearly as effective as the current US strike capability and the resource commitment will be much more costly, said one of the sources familiar with the ongoing deliberations.

Targets in Afghanistan have also become more scarce, the sources said, and the resources required to maintain a presence and carry out those operations, particularly against more low-level actors, are no longer considered worth it by many in the administration.

"Every shot, against a high-value target or against some low-level operative, costs basically the same" said the source familiar with the ongoing discussions.

As the administration continues to work through several logistical challenges on that front, Kim said it would make sense, as part of those deliberations, to review the criteria for how high-value targets are determined given the US will have fewer resources at its disposal.

"When you have fewer ISR capabilities and fewer strike capabilities, it's inherently going to put strain on what they can target," he said, referring to lethal strikes carried out by both the Pentagon and CIA.

"So they would certainly want to try to narrow that to their top priorities, to make sure that it's being utilized in the most effective way."

 

7. AFSOC's Unique Array for Armed Overwatch Competition

realcleardefense.com · by Dan Gouré

Conclusion: Evaluating these aircraft against a set of already challenging requirements will be tough enough for AFSOC. The five competitors are so different that it will likely be difficult to perform a comparative evaluation. Several will have to undergo extensive modifications to meet the minimum thresholds for the flyoff. When considerations of supportability, training, flexibility, and growth potential are included, AFSOC may find itself confronting multiple dilemmas in down selecting to one aircraft.

 

8. Israel Takes U.S. Military Weapons And Makes Them Even Deadlier

19fortyfive.com · by Charlie Gao · July 5, 2021

 

9.  Fond memories from a US military attache

Bangkok Post · by Bangkok Post Public Company Limited

Pretty cool anecdote: “One of my greatest honours was in 2019 and 2020. I was honoured to be asked to teach a class to Thai Military Academy Cadets in Nakhon Nayok with Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn. It was such an honour that I will cherish all my life.

Princess Sirindhorn attended the class when I lectured about US strategy or doctrine and always treated me with kindness and grace. Princess Sirindhorn was graceful and had a wonderful sense of humour. She even sang me the song called The Ballad of the Green Berets.

I could not believe she knew this song and I asked her how she knew it. She said she went to the Special Forces Command in Lop Buri with her father, His Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej The Great, and met a team of US Special Forces there.

She told me that her mother, Her Majesty Queen Sirikit The Queen Mother, always liked the American Green Beret songs and had memorised many of them. She played the songs so she learned them this way and never forgot them.

 

10. The Chinese Communist Party is a secret society

asiatimes.com · by Patrick Baert · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “CCP meetings include a five-yearly congress, which usually ends with the near-unanimous adoption of decisions.

High-level meetings of the 200-strong Central Committee take place behind closed doors, as do those of the Political Bureau, the inner cabinet.

State television usually broadcasts an officially approved readout later.

The debates, if there are any, are not made public.

“Hiding internal tensions allows the CCP to present a steel facade to its enemies and those of China,” Cabestan explained.

 

11. Military braces for sea change on justice reform

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · July 4, 2021

The times are changing. All major crimes?

Excerpts: “Biden administration officials, up to President Biden himself, have endorsed taking the decision to prosecute sexual assault and related crimes out of the chain of command.

But dozens of lawmakers, led by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), want to take almost all major crimes out of the chain of command, saying only changing how sex crimes are prosecuted could create a two-tiered justice system.

 

12.  China Copied and Stole Its Way to Becoming a Military Juggernaut

19fortyfive.com · by Robert Farley · July 4, 2021

 

13. Where Is the Sage of Air Power Doctrine?

The National Interest · by James Holmes · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Here’s the rub, though. Like command of the sea, command of the air may be incomplete, impermanent, or both. A defeated foe may still have options. Its air force may have been driven off yet escape destruction to fight again another day. The vanquished could rebuild. They could find allies boasting strong air forces of their own. Thus the fighter community’s work is never done. Ground-attack planes could find themselves in trouble from hostile aircraft or ground fire. At that point fighters must resume their all-important support function, succoring their vulnerable brethren and thence the army. They resume the struggle for air supremacy just as a navy’s battle fleet may find itself forced to renew the fight against a rejuvenated enemy fleet.

Close air support in embattled skies most closely resembles a close naval blockade of coasts that bristle with gun batteries and may harbor fugitive enemy ships intent on breaking the blockade or denying the triumphant fleet the harvest of victory at sea. Naval commanders wouldn’t withdraw the battle fleet from such a scene even after trouncing the enemy in action. They would instruct the fleet to remain vigilant in case cruisers and flotilla craft needed protection afresh. Similarly, air commanders ought not assume they are entitled to permanent, absolute air supremacy by virtue of a victorious air battle. Instead they should choreograph operations so fighter forces are positioned to defend aircraft performing their special work. In other words, they must manage the symbiosis among the components of the air force.

Bottom line, the elements of air forces are interdependent just as capital ships, cruisers, and flotilla craft prowling the sea are interdependent. To circle back to where we started, the U.S. Air Force should evaluate candidates for the light-attack mission as part of a larger flying force—not as aircraft that must fight or die bereft of support from fellow airmen. Surveying them in a vacuum begets an abstract, artificial, and misleading way of thinking about air power—as would be immediately apparent to aviators steeped in air-power theory.

We can—and must—do better. Will the Corbett of air power please step forward?

 

14. Radicalization Of Women A Worrying Trend – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Mohamed Bin Ali and Ahmad Saiful Rijal Bin Hassan · July 2, 2021

Conclusion: “Women play a huge role in the formation and development of families and communities.

The great role that has been played by the wives of the Prophet Muhammad and the companions in supporting Islamic religious activities led to the formation of an early Islamic nation in Medina.

Due to the high regards of women in Islam and also the nature of gentleness that God has created in them, women have a huge role in bringing peace to the world and not the other way around.

The trend of women becoming radicalised in societies today is something of great concern. It should be addressed even more seriously with effective and long term strategy.

Hopefully with this awareness, we will be able to produce a generation of women who are key advocates of peace and can play an important role in the ongoing efforts against terrorism and extremism.

 

15. Republicans have more friends across the political divide than Democrats, study finds

The Washington Post · by Lisa Bonos · July 3, 2021

And I would argue independents have more than both! There are more independents these days and I certainly have friends from across the entire spectrum.

 

 

16. How Three Women Exposed an Army Lt. Colonel’s Crazy Secret Life

The Daily Beast · by Emily Shugerman · July 3, 2021

Sheesh. This disgrace to the US army has certainly misunderstood what it means to be a civil affairs officer. It does not allow you to have affairs with civilians.

 

--------------

 

"All men profess honesty as long as they can. To believe all men honest would be folly. To believe none so is something worse."

- John Quincy Adams

 

"We must be free not because we claim freedom, but because we practice it."

- William Faulkner

 

"I like to see a man proud of the place in which he lives. I like to see a man live so that his place will be proud of him."

- Abraham Lincoln

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Reform and open North Korea is the only way for economic unification of Korean Peninsula

2. Can North Korea Survive Without Its Chairman?

3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞The Death Toll is Finally Starting to Rise. A Serious Humanitarian Crisis is a Man-made Disaster. Jiro Ishimaru

4. South Korea, US tilting toward downsizing combined drill

5. U.S. Insists on Joint Drill Schedule in August

6. Seoul, Washington agree to reduce the size of military exercises

7. New USFK commander pressed on Opcon transfer by Suh

8. Computer simulation exercises make N. Korea even emboldened

9. China criticizes U.S. for several decades’ menace to N. Korea

10. How will ‘emaciated’ Kim Jong-un ride out a famine in North Korea? With China’s help

11. China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization

12. Int'l Red Cross stays committed to helping N. Korea, ready to resume assistance projects

13. Not by the Gun Alone: Biographies of Kim Jong Un and the Puzzling Power of North Korean Leaders

14. S. Korea, Israel to speed up joint R&D projects

15. N. Korea hit recently with greater volatility in prices, exchange rate: ministry

16. Hyesan residential housing complex set alight after gas explosion

17. Two soldiers flee after murdering kindergarten teacher and her mother in Hoeryong

 

1. Reform and open North Korea is the only way for economic unification of Korean Peninsula

onekoreanetwork.com · July 4, 2021

From our good friend RI Jong-ho formerly of north Korea with deep knowledge of the Kim family regime. Again, the north Korean paradox: north Korea must reform to save the country and its people. However, reform and opening is an existential threat to the Kim family regime.

We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. For those who want to engage north Korea I urge you to answer my two key questions:

1. Do we see any evidence that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

 

If the answer is no then we must proceed accordingly with our own superior political warfare strategy.

Two key points:

“To understand North Korea properly, we need to know the nature of the Kim family and the dictatorship and why it hasn’t opened the country for 75 years. In North Korea, the means of production, land, and resources are all owned by the state, meaning it’s all owned by Kim Jong-un. It is said that Kim Jong-un is the nation and the party and represents the military and the people. He monopolizes everything in North Korea, decides everything, and all the wealth is focused on him, the absolute power. Therefore, even if the South requests cooperation from the North, it can only be executed after receiving Kim Jong-un’s policy and decision.

...

From a North Korean perspective, President Moon Jae-in’s policy of peaceful coexistence is an anachronistic delusional policy. President Moon is proposing a policy to engage in a peaceful resolution with a North Korean dictator who dreams of armed reunification by committing crimes against humanity.”

 

And I fully concur with Mr. Ri's conclusion: “As world history and the 75-year history of the Korean Peninsula have shown, the two opposing system cannot peacefully coexist. I think peace on the Korean Peninsula will be achieved when institutional unification is established with liberal democracy and a market economy rather than emotional logic. Therefore, we should all actively try to change the communist dictatorship of North Korea, which is a cancerous enemy of unification of the Korean Peninsula.”

​I would say it this way: ​The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

2. Can North Korea Survive Without Its Chairman?

thediplomat.com · by Chan Young Bang · July 2, 2021

While succession may be tenuous due to the nature of the regime I disagree with the conclusion here:

“To ensure the survival of North Korea, Kim Jong Un must trade his nuclear arsenal for economic prosperity and peace. By creating a viable economic development plan that guides economic modernization over a 10 year period, Kim can ensure the sovereignty of North Korea during and after his rule. The blueprint must consist of human resources development, viable labor markets, the legalization of free enterprise, increased foreign investment, and the introduction of private property rights. An economic development fund as part of a package deal with China, Russia, Japan, the United States, and South Korea could be issued annually in accordance with North Korea’s successful fulfillment of its denuclearization obligations. By relinquishing juche, and replacing his ruling legitimacy with an inclusive economic system focused on the economic wellbeing of the people, Kim Jong Un will cement his legacy and the survival of the DPRK, with the popular support of the 25 million citizens of North Korea.”

KJU is not going to give up his nuclear weapons. He is not going to act in the best interests of the country or of the 25 million Koreans' living in the north. He is only going to act in the best interests of the regime and ultimately only himself. He cannot reform. To change is to die within the regime.

 

3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞The Death Toll is Finally Starting to Rise. A Serious Humanitarian Crisis is a Man-made Disaster. Jiro Ishimaru

asiapress.org

Important analysis here. It is not the sanctions causing the suffering. It is Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions.

Excerpts: “Since the beginning of June, the lives of the North Korean people have been deteriorating as if a weir had been broken. It is frustrating that the reality of the situation has not been conveyed to the world. This is because the Kim Jong-un regime has closed the borders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, preventing people from coming in and out of the country, thus preventing information from being released. The writer has maintained contact with his reporting partners using a Chinese cell phone brought into North Korea. However, the current situation is judged to be the worst humanitarian crisis in Asia.

As I have mentioned several times before, the cause of the crisis was the blockade of the border with China, which led to a sharp decline in trade. It was also the tightening of controls on movement and commerce within the country as if martial law had been declared.

The significant slump in trade and markets reduced everyone's cash income. Food is no longer available from those who have depleted their reserves. The situation that residents feared a year ago, "I'm more afraid of hunger than of coronavirus," has become a reality. Vulnerable groups such as single older people, single mothers, and families with sick people were the first to fall on hard times.

 

4. South Korea, US tilting toward downsizing combined drill

The Korea Times  · by Kang Seung-woo · July 5, 2021

There is some reporting on the August combined exercises today and I will forward the various articles (to include an OpEd). I will say again it is delusional to believe that by scaling back the exercises (or postponing or cancelling) will result in any kind of positive response from north Korea. In fact doing so only leads to KJU doubling down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.

We must train. We must conduct multi-echelon training with the right training for the right forces, e.g., field exercises for tactical units and Combined Command Post training with computer simulation for the higher HQ).

My thoughts with background on the exercises are here: The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward. 

 

5. U.S. Insists on Joint Drill Schedule in August

english.chosun.com

As we should (and must).

While it may be true that the South Korean military authorities may be trying to "wrangle a reduction in scope or scale," I am confident they are doing it under duress and at the behest of the civilian political leadership. I am sure they have provided their advice and recommendations as to why it is necessary to conduct this combined training and that it must not be scaled back and especially not postponed:”Buut South Korean military authorities are still trying to wrangle a reduction in scope or scale. "I understand that the joint drills will highly likely be conducted for about 10 days from Aug. 16 without any field maneuvers," a military source said.

 

6. Seoul, Washington agree to reduce the size of military exercises

donga.com · July 5, 2021

We should not forget that live tactical training occurs year around and it is not necessary for large scale exercises for tactical units to get field training.

Excerpts: “But as they decided to reduce the size, the possibility of field training exercise not being held for four years since August 2018 has become higher. It seems that the U.S. more or less accepted South Korea’s judgement that normalizing the drill size would provoke North Korea, which has been demanding suspension of it, thus putting a damper on the resumption of the U.S.-North Korea talks. “Our talks with the U.S. were successful,” said a South Korean government insider. “Military authorities of the two countries will continue to discuss on details such as content of the drills and reinforcement of the U.S. troops.”

 

The joint military drills planned to be held in March last year was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In August last year and March this year, the drills were significantly reduced in size and conducted in computer simulation without live training.

 

7. New USFK commander pressed on Opcon transfer by Suh

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim · July 5, 2021

But Minister Suh must know that without conducting robust training exercises the ROK/US CFC will not be prepared for OPCON transition. The ROK must choose between readiness and preparing for OPCON transition or appeasing north Korea and KJU with delusional concessions such as scaling back, postponing, or cancelling exercises.

 

8.  Computer simulation exercises make N. Korea even emboldened

donga.com · July 5, 2021

Concessions embolden KJU to double down on blackmail diplomacy. Those who advocate cancelling, postponing, and scaling back exercises are willing to put the ROK and its people at grave risk.

Excerpts: “But the decision is only making North Korea even more emboldened. The size of military exercises started to shrink on the premise that the North would continue discussions and stop provocations in 2018 when inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits were held. But Pyongyang has been holding onto the ambiguous tensions between talks and conflicts, refusing all types of negotiations since the end of 2019. The North provokes South Korea with its short distance missiles without hesitation while pretending that it retrained itself from using nuclear and long-distance missiles, earning time to enhance its nuclear capacity.

Such abnormal situations have persisted for four years, which is creating concerns that our military readiness posture is weakening and the very existence of the U.S. troops in South Korea is becoming precarious. The joint military drills are the pillar of the South Korea-U.S. alliance along with the U.S. troops in South Korea and combined forces command. It is naturally difficult for the combined forces command to effectively respond to surprise military provocations of North Korea only with sub-battalion level drills without live training. This is exactly what the North intends.

 

9. China criticizes U.S. for several decades’ menace to N. Korea

donga.com  · July 5, 2021

And China supports the most despotic authoritarian regime that conducts crimes against humanity on a scale not seen since WWII according to the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry. And China is compact in those human rights abuses by not treating escapees from the north as refugees and providing them the protections required by international law. Instead they forcibly repatriate them to certain inhumane punishment and possibly execution.

 

10. How will ‘emaciated’ Kim Jong-un ride out a famine in North Korea? With China’s help

SCMP · by Maria Siow

No war, no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes. Expect China to throw a lifeline to help keep the regime's head above water. But it is unlikely to pull the regime to shore and make it stronger. It will ensure that the regime stays afloat and the status quo is maintained for as long as possible.

 

11. China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization

The Korea Times  · by Kang Seung-woo · July 5, 2021

For China, denuclearization is the last priority. No war and no instability are far more important to China.

We should also keep in mind that while China can exert influence over north Korea, the Kim family regime has been successful for 70+ years at manipulating all the powers to include Russia and China.

Excerpt: “China is seen as the only country that can exert influence on North Korea, given that it is Pyongyang's biggest trading partner and the Kim regime's economic lifeline. In addition, the North Korean leader vowed to elevate relations with Beijing to a new strategic level in his congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi Jinping marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, Thursday.

 

12. Int'l Red Cross stays committed to helping N. Korea, ready to resume assistance projects

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 5, 2021

The Red Cross (and the ROK, US and international community) is committed to helping north Korea. Kim Jong-un is not committed to receiving it.

 

13. Not by the Gun Alone: Biographies of Kim Jong Un and the Puzzling Power of North Korean Leaders

Los Angeles Review of Books · July 4, 2021

Two important books that are based on very different sources of analysis and use very different "analytical" techniques. Keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak is now the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific and the deputy Special Representative to North Korea. So her book can provide insights into the type of advice she is likely to provide our government about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

 

14. S. Korea, Israel to speed up joint R&D projects

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 5, 2021

 

15. N. Korea hit recently with greater volatility in prices, exchange rate: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 5, 2021

Typing to centrally control the north Korean economy leads only to failure. The crackdown on markets, the prohibition of foreign currency, the restrictions on movement, communications, and information and the closure of the border with China to both legal and illicit trade only makes things worse.

 

16. Hyesan residential housing complex set alight after gas explosion

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 5, 2021

The state, government, and party are not able to provide effective essential services to the people.

Just like in August, the local fire department failed to arrive at the scene until two hours after the fire began – and after local residents had already subdued the blaze.

 

17. Two soldiers flee after murdering kindergarten teacher and her mother in Hoeryong

dailynk.com · July 5, 2021

Any indications of the breakdown in the three chains of control? (military, political security). 

Again, we have to think about the possibility fo instability and what it means if the military chain of control breaks down and the military loses coherency and support for the regime ends.

Quote from "Should The United States Support for Korean Unification And If So, How?"

Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime, combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom-up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse, the regime’s demise is more likely to result from its inability to support the military and security services. Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “deprioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict, as actors fight to retain power and resources. In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of his family’s regime (in his calculus). However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spillover, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and could still be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the negative effects of regime collapse. (page 144-145,).

 

--------------

 

"All men profess honesty as long as they can. To believe all men honest would be folly. To believe none so is something worse."

- John Quincy Adams

 

"We must be free not because we claim freedom, but because we practice it."

- William Faulkner

 

"I like to see a man proud of the place in which he lives. I like to see a man live so that his place will be proud of him."

- Abraham Lincoln

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Instructor Zero with an Independence Day Tribute

2. Austin approves new US Forces Afghanistan Forward command as drawdown nears early completion

3. China Will No Longer Be a Developing Country After 2023. Its Climate Actions Should Reflect That.

4. American ghosts of war will haunt Afghanistan

5. Imperiled for helping U.S. troops and stranded by bureaucracy, Afghan interpreters see Biden evacuation plan as last hope

6. China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

7. Some Philippine troops jump before military plane crashes in flames, killing at least 45

8. Opinion | The Excesses of Antiracist Education

9. Perspective | Let’s celebrate Florida’s critical race theory student survey

10. Women Have a Key Role in Peace and Security. Yet Most Nations Overlook Them in Foreign Policy

11. What to know about Rise of the Moors, an armed group that says it’s not subject to U.S. law

12. Bodies, Bullets, and Blood: How Masculinity Influences Mass Killers

13. How Two Great Friends Overcame Politics

 

1. Instructor Zero with an Independence Day Tribute

Instructor Zero · July 4, 2021  

I would not normally send a Facebook Post but a good friend of mine flagged it and I think it is worth sharing.

My friend shared this comment: “Instructor Zero is an amazing firearms instructor, and Italian. His writing about the US and Independence Day brought tears to my eyes, at a time when i needed it. Enjoy. Happy Independence Day.”

 

2.  Austin approves new US Forces Afghanistan Forward command as drawdown nears early completion

Stars and Stripes · by Caitlin Doornbos · July 2, 2021

 

3. China Will No Longer Be a Developing Country After 2023. Its Climate Actions Should Reflect That.

thediplomat.com · by Mathias Lund Larsen · July 3, 2021

It is amazing that the country with the 2d largest economy in the world is only a "developing country."  

 

4. American ghosts of war will haunt Afghanistan

asiatimes.com · by Richard S Ehrlich · July 4, 2021

Ugh....

“I’m a skull worshipper,” Special Operations Command Sergeant-Major Raymond Cordell said in an interview at the time in Bagram Air Base, 67 kilometers north of Kabul.

“Young soldiers just tend to relate to things like that. That’s just the nature of people who join the army and do this for a living,” Cordell said.

“As a leader, you try to hone out those things that different soldiers are attracted to. For me, it has always worked to be skulls.”

But this is a helluva an anecdote and warning:

“Any Americans remaining in Afghanistan to support the vulnerable regime, however, may want to heed the experience of Russians who stayed in Kabul after Soviet forces withdrew in 1989.

Yuri Tyssovski, the Kabul bureau chief of the Russian news agency TASS, chose to change his residence when his countrymen withdrew.

Hurriedly boxing up his belongings in his suburban Kabul home in 1989, and calling for his pet German shepherd which was trained to sniff out land mines, Tyssovski said in an interview:

“I am only moving into the Soviet Embassy across the street for safety. My boss asked me if I wanted to leave Afghanistan, but I told him no, because I want to stay on and continue my work. It is my duty.

“I will stay one year more. It will be difficult for us. There are various predictions of how the situation will be.

“It may be awfully bad, moderately bad, not so bad, or even good. So, let us see. It is impossible to guess anything, so why be worried about it?”

Tyssovski had recently been wounded in a U.S.-backed mujahideen guerrilla attack during a Soviet media trip in eastern Afghanistan.

Pulling down one side of his pants, he displayed horrible scars on his thigh where shrapnel ripped into him.

“I have a whole arsenal in this house, including hand grenades which I hate. But I need them for protection.”

He raised his glass of vodka in a toast and laughing, in an almost painful way, said:

“One day the rebels are going to come for me. But I am ready. I have already cut off my balls and put them in the refrigerator, so I can hand them to the mujahideen when they arrive!”

 

5. Imperiled for helping U.S. troops and stranded by bureaucracy, Afghan interpreters see Biden evacuation plan as last hope

The Washington Post · by Pamela Constable and Ezzatullah Mehrdad · July 3, 2021

Excerpts: “Abdul Zubair Ebrahemi, 30, worked for the U.S. Army for three years and spent another three waiting for his visa, which was denied. As a combat translator, he said, “I was always on patrols. I served in the most dangerous southern provinces. I have medals and commendation letters. I was serving my country by helping America. I expected the U.S. government to support me.”

Instead, Ebrahimi said, his visa was denied because he had been “terminated” by the U.S. contracting firm that hired him. When he asked why, he was told the company was “not authorized to share the details.” When he heard about the planned U.S. evacuation plan, he said, “it gave me a huge hope, but because of this termination on my record, I am worried that I might be left behind.”

For Shirzad, the startling disconnect between the strong endorsements he received from his Navy SEAL superiors and the denial of his visa for “failure to provide faithful and valuable service” is both mystifying and maddening. This week, poring through photos of himself with American buddies in the field and letters from commanders citing his service “above and beyond the call of duty,” he sighed and shook his head.

“What more could I have given? Why was I punished?” he asked. “I may never know the answer.”

 

6. China Has a BIG Plan for Post-U.S. Afghanistan—and It’s Worth Billions

The Daily Beast · by Syed Fazl-e-Haider · July 4, 2021

Wishful thinking on someone's part? Maybe China is going to adopt a "COIN strategy:" clear, hold, build with emphasis on "build" as their silver bullet.

“China could well bring the Taliban on board with BRI. The insurgents have said they will support development projects if they serve Afghan national interests,” he added.

What China actually needs to extend its Belt and Road program to Afghanistan is, ultimately, peace. Beijing has gone so far as to offer infrastructure and energy projects worth billions of dollars to the Taliban in return for peace in Afghanistan.

“The Taliban isn’t the only challenge to overcome,” said Kugelman. “There are many sources of violence, both anti- and pro-state, in Afghanistan. So China will still face an extremely insecure environment, even if it gets Taliban buy-in for its projects.”

There’s no doubt that the strategic assets in Taxkorgan, Wakhan and Gwadar will strengthen China’s logistical infrastructure, helping it achieve its long-term economic and security objectives in the region.

Peace, though, remains the actual key to China’s master plan for a post-U.S. Afghanistan.

 

7. Some Philippine troops jump before military plane crashes in flames, killing at least 45

Reuters · by Karen Lema and Maria Ponnezhath

What a tragedy:

“The plane had attempted to land at Jolo airport, but overshot the runway without touching down. It failed to regain enough power and height and crashed at nearby Patikul.

"A number of soldiers were seen jumping out of the aircraft before it hit the ground, sparing them from the explosion caused by the crash," the Joint Task Force Sulu said in a statement.

...

The military command said the soldiers aboard had the rank of private and were being deployed to their battalions. They were flying to the provincial airport of Jolo from Laguindingan, about 460 km (290 miles) to the northeast.

...

The Lockheed C-130H Hercules aircraft, with registration 5125, had only recently arrived in the Philippines.

It was one of two aircraft provided by the U.S. government through the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, a government website said in January. It quoted an air force spokesman as saying the aircraft would boost capability for heavy airlift missions.

 

8. Opinion | The Excesses of Antiracist Education

The New York Times · by Ross Douthat · July 3, 2021

Excerpts: “But precisely because they don’t follow from modest and defensible conceptions of systemic racism, smart progressives in the media often retreat to those modest conceptions when challenged by conservatives — without acknowledging that the dubious conceptions are a big part of what’s been amplifying controversy, and conjuring up dubious Republican legislation in response.

Here one could say that figures like Kendi and DiAngelo, and the complex of foundations and bureaucracies that have embraced the new antiracism, increasingly play a similar role to talk radio in the Republican coalition. They represent an ideological extremism that embarrasses clever liberals, as the spirit of Limbaugh often embarrassed right-wing intellectuals. But this embarrassment encourages a pretense that their influence is modest, their excesses forgivable, and the real problem is always the evils of the other side.

That pretense worked out badly for the right, whose intelligentsia awoke in 2016 to discover that they no longer recognized their own coalition. It would be helpful if liberals currently dismissing anxiety over Kendian or DiAngelan ideas as just a “moral panic” experienced a similar awakening now — before progressivism simply becomes its excesses, and the way back to sanity is closed.

 

9. Perspective | Let’s celebrate Florida’s critical race theory student survey

The Washington Post · by Jay Mathews · July 3, 2021

Somehow I do not think a survey will be able to provide such answers and insights as those from students below. And of course the students below may not be representative of the average student as they provide some pretty sophisticated insights.

That said, students like these give me a lot of hope for our future. Neither the radical left nor the radical right will be successful as we continue to develop critical thinking young people.

 

10.  Women Have a Key Role in Peace and Security. Yet Most Nations Overlook Them in Foreign Policy

news18.com · July 3, 2021

Excerpts: “A feminist foreign policy approach could be useful in addressing issues that are key to women and enhancing the position of women in global and national platforms. This could bring greater pressure to bear on states to perform better, not just in making commitments but in delivering them as well. Such pressure is important because states would like to be seen as championing women’s cause. International normative pressure could thus play an important role in pushing states to pursue such an agenda more seriously. So, the demonstration effect of these issues being discussed at the international level is significant.

Thus, a more gender-sensitive foreign policy approach could create viable space for women in decision-making spaces, which could aid better representation and provide voice to those who have been on the margins. On the ground, this would mean creating an enabling environment that can facilitate broader, comprehensive approaches, innovative thinking, fostering diversity and balance, and embracing inclusion. This approach needs to evolve and develop certain standards at the global level that could make states more accountable to their commitments. These are not easy, and one can just look at the UNSCR 1325 compliance requirements. We still have quite some distance to travel.

 

11. What to know about Rise of the Moors, an armed group that says it’s not subject to U.S. law

The Washington Post · by Max Hauptman · July 4, 2021

Excerpts: “Rise of the Moors draws a link between its members and Indigenous peoples of the Americas.

“Especially with these sovereign Moorish groups, there is this idea that is rooted in ancient civilizations like the Aztecs, the Olmecs, Incas,” said Cruz. “They have this belief that the U.S. government has no right to be enforcing or creating laws in territories that don’t belong to them, so they see themselves as forming their own sovereign nation.”

Although 2020 saw an overall decrease in the number of anti-government groups, according to the SPLC, the amount of activity tracked by this group has increased.

“What we are seeing as well as the uptick in activity is the idea that these sovereign-citizen groups like Rise of the Moors, they try to prey on Black and Brown individuals,” said Cruz. “Typically with this idea that society is unfair and it preys on individuals who are maybe down on their luck, they have a place to turn where these groups promise a more fair and equitable society.”

 

12. Bodies, Bullets, and Blood: How Masculinity Influences Mass Killers

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Cody Kennedy · June 30, 2021

Conclusion:  “The following solutions can help U.S. policy-makers address mass shootings in a more coherent manner. First, policy-makers should establish school programs that require both female and male students to see school counselors regularly.This will help de-stigmatize mental health issues at an early age and make it less likely that they will be reluctant to ask for help later on. Second, public schools should mandate anger management courses to all male students in an effort to teach them healthy ways to cope with stress, anger, and depression. This will help men establish alternative solutions to address their problems and minimize the likelihood that they will resort to violence. If U.S. policy-makers are serious about addressing the issue of mass shootings, they need to consider how gender is impacting the motivations of these individuals. While instituting stricter gun control laws may help lower the overall number of mass shootings, it will not eliminate them entirely. The U.S. government must go beyond gun.”

 

13. How Two Great Friends Overcame Politics

WSJ · by Peggy Noonan

I have always been fascinated by the story of the end of their lives:

“Both men were near the end of their lives. Both held on for the great day. Wood reports Jefferson woke the night of the 3rd and asked if it was the 4th yet. His doctor said it soon would be. Early the next morning he woke again and called for his servants. Just after noon he died.

At the same time Adams, 500 miles to the north, lay dying. A memoir by Abigail’s nephew William Cranch, chief judge of the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, reports that Adams awoke on the Fourth to bells ringing and cannon booming. The celebrations had begun. Asked if he knew what day it was he said yes, “It is the glorious 4th of July—God bless it—God bless you all.” According to legend, just before he died at 6 p.m., he awoke and said, “Thomas Jefferson survives.”

What drove their reconciliation? A tenderness, toward history and toward themselves. They knew what their friendship had been. They had lived through and to a significant degree driven a world-historical event, the invention of America. They had shared that moment and it had been the great moment of their lives, greater than their presidencies, greater than what followed. They had been geniuses together.

As the Fourth explodes around us we should take some inspiration from the story of an old estrangement healed. We’re all trying to repair something. May you have a Benjamin Rush.

 

--------------

 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."

- Thomas Jefferson

 

"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."

- George Washington

 

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. August joint exercises will go on, says Pentagon

2. President Moon Jae-in's dog gifted from Kim Jong-un delivers 7 puppies

3. Ten years of standing on his own (Kim Jong-un)

4. Back to masking in Seoul as Covid cases spike

5. N. Korea not cooperating with global vaccine distribution program: report

6. North Korea Wants to Wage Its Very Own War on Drugs. It Might Not Go So Well.

7. Women’s Perspectives on a Peaceful Reunification of the Korean Peninsula — Women's Federation for World Peace USA

8. Hyundai to invest in U.S. battery startup SES: sources

9. Kim Jong-un Reverses Economic Reforms and Fires Top Aides

10. A great new Korean restaurant sets itself apart from the pack

 

1. August joint exercises will go on, says Pentagon

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Sang-Jin and esther Chung· July 4, 2021

The combined and joint exercises.

An RFA  journalist asked me the following question.  My response will be too long for him to use on the radio (he did record me giving him the 1st four paragraphs):

“76 South Korea assemblymen from ruling party urged yesterday South Korea and US government to postpone US-South Korea joint military exercise scheduled to conduct in August for the purpose of having North Korea come to negotiation table. They claimed that US-South Korea joint military exercise is stumbling block for relations of North and South Korea, US and North Korea. Do you have comment on this?

Let me have your answer by noon today. Thank you.”

My response: “With all due respect to the 76 assemblymen, this is utter nonsense. It is a fantasy and delusion.  We have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back numerous exercises since June of 2018 and there has been absolutely no reciprocity from north Korea.

These 76 assemblymen are willing to put the security of the ROK and its people at grave risk.  Failure to train our combined military force undermines deterrence and reduces the ability to defend the ROK successfully.

Kim Jong-un uses the exercises as an excuse to conduct his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy in which he raises tensions, makes threats, and conducts provocations to gain political and economic concessions  Furthermore he is not calling for the end of exercises as a security guarantee. He is doing it to weaken the combined military force in order to achieve an advantage over the ROK and hold it hostage with its artillery and armored forces and the 4th largest Army in the world along the DMZ.

Calling for a cancellation of combined exercises is the height of irresponsibility. It will not lead to north-South engagement nor a return to the nuclear negotiating table.

I would put these two questions to the ROK assemblyman:

 

1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2.  In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

 

The answer to these two questions is most obviously "no."  If the assemblymen do not know this then they are admitting they do not understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

In addition, failing to conduct the exercises will have an impact on the OPCON transition process which the ruling party wants to complete so earnestly.  But if the above is an example of the strategic thinking of the ruling party, it has no business exercising wartime operational control of the combined forces.  It will surely lead to needless loss of blood and treasure if they are in charge.

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

Lastly, we should never forget that the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

 

2. President Moon Jae-in's dog gifted from Kim Jong-un delivers 7 puppies

The Korea Times · by Jun Ji-hye· July 4, 2021

Very interesting development.  Is this a subversive action by the north?  A way to infiltrate the South? 

We should not forget the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.

But perhaps these are "special forces canines" and are attempting to infiltrate the Blue House to do what the nKPA SOF could not accomplish in 1968?

Note their special skills: “The dogs, bred to hunt tigers and other wild animals, are known to be agile, smart and ferocious toward their prey, but friendly and loyal to their human masters.

The question is who is their loyal human master?  Are these the ultimate sleeper agents?

(Note all semi-tongue in cheek).

 

3.  Ten years of standing on his own (Kim Jong-un)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Jeong Yong-soo· July 4, 2021

Kim Jong-un does have "experience."  Of the 2 revisionist and 2 rogue powers only Putin has been in power longer (Xi since 2013).

Interesting analysis but it is not the "international sanctions" that are the cause of the suffering in the north.

Excerpts: “North Korea’s about-turn since then to cut off all inter-Korean relations reflects its decision to blame South Korea for the collapse of the summit in Hanoi. For instance, Kim Yo-jong, the powerful younger sister of Kim Jong-un and vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party, hurled unimaginable insults at the Blue House after backtracking on North Korea’s appreciation for the South Korean president’s mediation. The denuclearization talks also were put off once again after Trump and Kim got so close to untying the Gordian Knot.

 Under such circumstances, Kim Jong-un, chairman of the State Affairs Commission, took the drastic action of removing his father and grandfather’s names from the Constitution of the Workers’ Party after amending it in January. Kim also deleted their names from the name of a famous youth group — one of his next-generation power bases — to stand on his own feet 10 years after taking power. But his government still suffers from the triple whammies of the coronavirus, natural disasters like flooding, and international sanctions. The construction of the Wonsan-Kalma beach resort, scheduled to be finished by Kim Il Sung’s birthday on April 15 last year, and Pyongyang General Hospital, supposed to be completed by the Workers’ Party founding day on Oct. 10 last year, are still going on. The ambitious projects to show Chairman Kim’s “endless love for the people” are put on hold in the face of international sanctions with no glimmer of hope over the next round of negotiation for denuclearization.

In its June 28 edition, the North’s state mouthpiece Rodong Sinmun ran a pages-long special feature on Chairman Kim. Its title: “10 years of great revolutionary guidance shining in triumph and glory.” The newspaper summed up the past decade under Kim as a period of miracles.

The feature story quoted Kim as saying, “Wrapping up my 10 years of rule, I have faithfully followed in the footsteps of the Great Leader [Kim Il Sung] and the Great General [Kim Jong-il]. I will only take the same path forever. That is my conviction and determination.” After the shocks from Hanoi, Kim seems to have reflected on the 46 years of rule by his grandfather and the 37 years of rule by his father, including the period as heir. After the economy faced extreme hardships in 1997, Kim Jong-il told his subordinates to “not expect any change from me.” Five years later, however, he introduced some elements of market economics to help improve outmoded systems in the isolated country. Following his summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2010, Kim Jong-il also put North-China ties back on track. The answer mostly lied with opening and communicating with the rest of the world.

In 2010, when he met a group of presidents of media organizations from South Korea, Kim Jong-il expressed a hope to visit and pay respects to the grave of the founder of the Jeonju Kim family in South Korea, to which he belongs. I look forward to his son taking the baton from his father and taking a step forward instead of adhering to a path of seclusion.

 

4. Back to masking in Seoul as Covid cases spike

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Seo Ji-Eun · July 4, 2021

Masks work (at least in Korea)

 

5. N. Korea not cooperating with global vaccine distribution program: report

en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · July 4, 2021

This report is based on the very important report from Voice of America (William Gallo).  The Korean media is picking up on this as it relies on VOA and Radio Free asia for supplemental reporting.  This is one of the important contributions made by VOA and RFA (and USGMA more broadly).  They provide reports not often found in the mainstream media.  And they have enormous influence in the foreign media space.

As many Korea watchers will note but many pundits and the press (and north Korean sympathizers and useful idiots) seem to overlook is that the US and the ROK and the international community are willing to help the north with COVID and other humanitarian needs but it is Kim Jong-un who does not cooperate.  But those who sympathize with nK would rather try to make the ROK and US look like the bad guys.

 

6. North Korea Wants to Wage Its Very Own War on Drugs. It Might Not Go So Well.

19fortyfive.com · by ByStephen Silver · July 3, 2021

I think it is unknown to many people but marijuana grows wild in north Korea.  There are reports of US POWs gaining access to it.  

(Why some Korean War prisoners spent their captivity stoned out of their gourd - Prisoners would pick the plant while collecting firewood and then dry it over camp fires. 

What most do know is the north is very good at producing methamphetamines. 

 

7. Women’s Perspectives on a Peaceful Reunification of the Korean Peninsula — Women's Federation for World Peace USA

wfwp.us

Highlight from my good friend and HRNK colleague: “The second panelist from the US, Amanda Mortwedt Oh, a human rights attorney at The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, advocates for human rights issues alongside those who have escaped North Korea. She offered three recommendations and steps in order for the two countries to peacefully reunite. As a concept developed by Former Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki Moon, Ms. Oh advised to start with an upfront human rights approach and assessment process. This is to increase awareness about the facts and what is happening, and to encourage all parties to prioritize resolving human rights issues. In order to do this, human rights standards would need to be discussed and agreed upon, including how these standards would continue to be monitored. To further build trust, she shared examples of steps of good faith that could be arranged, such as allowing family reunions or releasing political prisoners. Finally, Ms. Oh emphasized the need for individuals to share their stories and experiences, to allow for justice, documentation, and accountability to take place. By setting up these practices and mutual agreements, long-term reconciliation and understanding can take place.

 

8. Hyundai to invest in U.S. battery startup SES: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · July 4, 2021

 

9. Kim Jong-un Reverses Economic Reforms and Fires Top Aides

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · July 3, 2021

I concur that a turn inward will only make problems worse.  But that is the paradox of north Korea.  It must reform and open up in order for the nation and the people to survive.  But reforming (real reforms and not the tepid and minor reforms the regime has so far allowed but is now cracking down on) and opening up is an existential threat to the Kim family regime.

As much as I often disagree with Mr. Bandow, this is an important point: “And that might be one reason Kim has so far indicated little interest in engaging the United States. He likely hopes to enhance his leverage in any negotiations, given the allied assumption that the DPRK is in desperate straits. He also might figure that in the short-term a deal would be of little value, since his government could not take advantage of the sanctions relaxation that he desires. Better to demonstrate the North’s steadfastness under pressure and wait until sanctions relief would take practical effect.

 

10. A great new Korean restaurant sets itself apart from the pack

Washington Post · by Tom Sietsema · July 2, 2021

For those in the DC area.  I will have to try this new one out.

 

------------

 

"We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all men are created equal; that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights; that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness."

- Thomas Jefferson

 

"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."

- George Washington

 

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same."

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. RT Jumps Into Growing Fray Over "Critical Race Theory" In The US

2. Taiwan’s unity cracks under Chinese disinformation onslaught

3. Chinese Millennials Are ‘Chilling,’ and Beijing Isn’t Happy About It

4. The Intellectual Foundations of the Biden Revolution

5. Conspiracy theories are a mental health crisis

6. Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, Brother of Crown Prince, to Visit Washington

7. Opinion: Countering violence extremism is the magic bullet in war on terror

8. Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities to Conventional and Strategic Deterrence

9. The political power of memes

10. College students — even Republicans — skeptical of crackdown on critical race theory

11. The U.S. Army and 2022 Budget | SOF News

12. Exclusive: Special Operators sound off about SOCOM's Armed Overwatch Program

13. The War on History Is a War on Democracy

14. Force Integration in Resistance Operations: Dutch Jedburghs and U.S. Alamo Scouts

 

1. RT Jumps Into Growing Fray Over "Critical Race Theory" In The US

global-influence-ops.com · by Editor

Of course RT is doing this. But it does not need to do much as both those for and against CRT are doing a great job of supporting Russian objectives.

 

2. Taiwan’s unity cracks under Chinese disinformation onslaught

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille · June 29, 2021

Taiwan needs its own variation of this statement from our 2017 NSS:"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

3. Chinese Millennials Are ‘Chilling,’ and Beijing Isn’t Happy About It

The New York Times · by Elsie Chen · July 3, 2021

Sounds like some variations of Gene Sharp's nonviolent resistance techniques in "From Dictatorship to Democracy: A Conceptual Framework for Liberation."  Or maybe some new techniques to add to the list.

If I were supporting a nascent resistance I would provide two documents to the movement: Gene Sharp's work and the OSS Simple Sabotage Manual. Sounds like the millennials may be borrowing that manual as well.

 

4. The Intellectual Foundations of the Biden Revolution

Foreign Policy · by Daniel Deudney, G. John Ikenberry · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “A key assumption of the Biden program is quintessentially Rooseveltian: The achievement of basic national interests requires making difficult domestic reforms in response to shifting global challenges. Just as the United States in World War II quickly and dramatically ramped up production, the Biden program recognizes that responding to climate change requires far-reaching domestic innovations. The mobilization to defeat the Axis powers and then the Soviet Union left no aspect of American life untouched and unchanged. So too, effectively responding to the climate crisis will remake America. If this reconstruction serves liberal democratic values, the United States will be made stronger and more capable—and more liberal and democratic.

Realities dictate that the United States must both compete effectively and cooperate extensively. The Biden administration’s program therefore recognizes that ramping up the capacity to compete with China must occur alongside efforts to cooperatively work with China to jointly address the climate emergency and the threat of pandemics. Due in large measure to the influence of U.S. liberals and internationalists, the United States not only competed with the Soviet Union but also cooperated with it on arms control and smallpox eradication. Rooseveltian internationalism, not minimalist realism or belligerent Trumpian nationalism, offers the playbook for a U.S. foreign policy that effectively competes with the Chinese but also cooperates with them on shared global problems.

In making sense of 21st-century realities and guiding U.S. grand strategy, modern liberalism and internationalism as first shaped during the Roosevelt era have the intellectual and programmatic resources that no other tradition of U.S. foreign policy can provide. Unlike those of his rivals, Biden’s worldview and program build on the successes of earlier Rooseveltian liberal and internationalist projects. As in the past, the success of the United States of America in the world—and the success of the free-world project—depend on the extension and implementation of a progressive liberal agenda.

 

5. Conspiracy theories are a mental health crisis

Mashable · June 27, 2021

Perhaps a public service announcement for all those who believe in the wild conspiracy theories that have become mainstream these days.

 

6. Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman, Brother of Crown Prince, to Visit Washington

WSJ · by Vivian Salama and Stephen Kalin

I knew Khalid at Georgetown. Although he had an aide, he was a very down to earth guy (for a prince I guess) and was really looking forward to two years of studying for his master's degree. He started out as a student until halfway through the semester when he walked into my office and said he had to return to Saudi Arabia and had to withdraw from the program. Two weeks later he returned as the Ambassador to the U.S.

 

7. Opinion: Countering violence extremism is the magic bullet in war on terror

tuko.co.ke · by Naomi Wandede · June 30, 2021

A view from Kenya. But I do not think there are any magic bullets in CT or any other national security issue.

 

8. Cyber Threats and Vulnerabilities to Conventional and Strategic Deterrence

ndupress.ndu.edu · by Mark Montgomery and Erica Borghard

Excerpts: “Given the extraordinarily high consequence of a successful adversary cyber-enabled information operation against nuclear command and control decision making processes, DOD should consider developing a comprehensive training and educational requirement for relevant personnel to identify and report potential activity. DOD must additionally consider incorporating these considerations into preexisting table-top exercises and scenarios around nuclear force employment while incorporating lessons learned into future training.67 Implementing these recommendations would enhance existing DOD efforts and have a decisive impact on enhancing the security and resilience of the entire DOD enterprise and the critical weapons systems and functions that buttress U.S. deterrence and warfighting capabilities.

Much of the focus within academic and practitioner communities in the area of cyber deterrence has been on within-domain deterrence, and even studies of cross-domain deterrence have been largely concerned with the employment of noncyber instruments of power to deter cyberattacks. This has led to a critical gap in strategic thinking—namely, the cross-domain implications of cyber vulnerabilities and adversary cyber operations in day-to-day competition for deterrence and warfighting above the level of armed conflict. Failure to proactively and systematically address cyber threats and vulnerabilities to critical weapons systems, and to the DOD enterprise, has deleterious implications for the U.S. ability to deter war, or fight and win if deterrence fails. Implementing the Cyberspace Solarium Commission’s recommendations would go a long way toward restoring confidence in the security and resilience of the U.S. military capabilities that are the foundation of the Nation’s deterrent. 

 

9. The political power of memes

See the video here. 

A 1:51 minute video that provides a very useful discussion of the modern "psychological operations leaflet."

 

10. College students — even Republicans — skeptical of crackdown on critical race theory

Axios · by Neal Rothschild

The anti-CRT crowd will have a field day with these statistics. They will want to double down (which of course will only make it worse for their cause). And the pro-CRT crowd will likely misinterpret this as well and those who push extreme variations of CRT theory will also create blowback.

Both sides will blame this on effective indoctrination which must either continue or be countered depending on where you stand and sit.

But what about the ability of college students to think critically for themselves? Does anyone think they are not capable of doing so and therefore must be indoctrinated with one extreme ideology or another?

 

11. The U.S. Army and 2022 Budget | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · July 1, 2021

The SOF excerpt: “SOF. Representative Murphy (FL), a member of the House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations, asked how the Army’s special operations forces (ARSOF) are adapting to and improving training for the refocus from CT/COIN to GPC. The Secretary response stressed that the shift from CT/COIN to GPC has been ongoing and continues. She said that ARSOF is still needed in a GPC environment and that training scenarios are changing to incorporate the changes outlined in the Irregular Warfare Annex to the National Defense Strategy. General McConville stated that SOF has done an incredible job the past 20 years. He stated that CT/COIN is not going away, however he said SOF is very agile and can perform both the CT/COIN missions as well as the future fight with near-peer adversaries. McConville stated that SOF is uniquely suited to working with allies and partners in the combatant regions they are aligned to – and that SOF will continue to help partners build their CT capability. The Secretary briefly discussed the ‘resistance capability‘ that US Special Forces can enhance in the Baltic nations.

 

12.  Exclusive: Special Operators sound off about SOCOM's Armed Overwatch Program

sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · July 1, 2021

 

13. The War on History Is a War on Democracy

The New York Times · by Timothy Snyder · June 29, 2021

It will be interesting to see how divisive this article will be.

I too have a problem with banning ideas and thoughts regardless of how much I disagree with them. In that sense I am a strict Constitutionalist when it comes to the 1st Amendment and the entire Bill of Rights.

And it is our Amendment process that has allowed us to correct mistakes and keep us on the path to a more perfect union.

 

14. Force Integration in Resistance Operations: Dutch Jedburghs and U.S. Alamo Scouts

ndupress.ndu.edu · by  Kevin Stringer

Some weekend history reading.

 

-----------------

 

"I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do."

- Charlie Munger

 

"One of the most important reasons for studying history is that virtually every stupid idea that is in vogue today has been tried before and provides disastrous before, time and again".

- Thomas Sowell

 

"Age does not bring wisdom. Often it merely changes simple stupidity into arrogant conceit. Its only advantage, so far as I have been able to see, is that it spans change. A young person sees the world as a still picture, immutable. An old person has had his nose rubbed in changes and more changes and still more changes so many times that he knows it is a moving picture, forever changing. he may not like it – probably doesn't; I don't – but he knows it's so, and knowing it is the first step in coping with it." 

- Robert Heinlein - Time Enough for Love

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1.  U.S. committed to keeping appropriate troop level in S. Korea: Pentagon

2. Kim Jong Un’s Recent Weight Loss: A Medical Assessment

3. North Korean officials were 'schooled' at Politburo meeting, state media says

4. N. Korea resumes trading with China in more than a year

5.  N. Koreans overtake S. Koreans in TOEFL score in 2020: report

6.  UN agency upgrades Korea to developed economy

7. North Korea Shows No Vaccine Urgency, Despite New Virus Woes

8. What China Wants From North Korea

9. What Happens if Kim Jong-un Dies?

10. COVID crisis in North Korea: What do we know?

11. ‘Quiet warrior’ takes reins of US Forces Korea as Abrams ends 39-year Army career

 

1. U.S. committed to keeping appropriate troop level in S. Korea: Pentagon

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 3, 2021

Good news but we should not have to keep restating this. We need to continue demonstrating strategic reassurance and strategic resolve. And the Biden administration is showing a consistent commitment to our alliances.

That said, the operative word is "appropriate." We have to make necessary adjustments based on a wide range of factors. Troop levels never have been and never will be static. If there is a change that by no means will mean a reduced commitment.

 

2.  Kim Jong Un’s Recent Weight Loss: A Medical Assessment

38north.org · by Kenneth B. Dekleva · July 2, 2021

Yes, we all want to know the assessment of KJU's health. But still no definitive answers of course. And the concluding paragraph is important.

Excerpt: "Kim may have begun to appreciate that HIS longevity and health—not merely possessing nuclear weapons—is what ensures the survival of the DPRK and his legacy. In this sense, Kim’s weight loss may not be a bad thing. It also sends signals to the US and others that ­a healthier Kim will have more time to wait for the optimal conditions to negotiate. Presidents Joseph Biden, Xi, Moon and Putin should take note."

 

3. North Korean officials were 'schooled' at Politburo meeting, state media says

UPI  · by Elizabeth Shim · July 3, 2021

If the Propaganda and Agitation Department is reporting this in "state media" KJU must really want to reinforce these lessons and send a message not only to other elites but to the Korean people in the north.

 

4. N. Korea resumes trading with China in more than a year

donga.com · July 3, 2021

An important development. But will KJU allow the markets to return to "normal" (relatively) and function as markets? Will he lift the other draconian population control measures (communications, internal movement, use of foreign currency, etc)?

 

5. N. Koreans overtake S. Koreans in TOEFL score in 2020: report

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · July 3, 2021

An interesting data point. But how should we interpret this? Are these really statistically significant differences?

 

6. UN agency upgrades Korea to developed economy

The Korea Times · July 3, 2021

I would have thought this would have come along sooner. But we should remember that South Korea is the first nation to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation that has the 10th largest economy in the world.

 

7. North Korea Shows No Vaccine Urgency, Despite New Virus Woes

voanews.com · William Gallo · July 3, 2021

Useful assessment here.

A key point (of many): “Another problem is North Korea’s severe lockdown, which has prevented virtually any foreigners from entering the country.

According to the source who spoke with VOA, North Korea is refusing to allow international aid workers into the country to help facilitate the shipment, ostensibly because of fears about outsiders bringing COVID-19 into the country.

However, Gavi procedures require that international staff must be present, the source said. Gavi “won’t just ship it,” the source said.

United Nations agencies’ employees, who might have been able to help with the vaccine shipment, have left North Korea amid worsening lockdown conditions.

 

8. What China Wants From North Korea

The National Interest · by Andrei Lankov · July 2, 2021

Three "no's" - No war - no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes. (except for nukes) Simply maintain the status quo indefinitely (and it can live with the nukes as long as there is no war or instability.)

And north Korea will be a spoiler in great power competition.

Excerpt: "For the time being, however, we should reconcile ourselves with the idea that China will be quietly sabotaging sanctions, and, while talking much about the grave need for a negotiated solution, will not be in a hurry to forge some mutually acceptable deal."

 

9. What Happens if Kim Jong-un Dies?

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · July 2, 2021

Or more precisely, what would we do if today we learned that Kim Jong-un had died?

 

10. COVID crisis in North Korea: What do we know?

DW · · July 2, 2021

Excerpts: “For the last 18 months, Pyongyang has consistently insisted that no cases of the virus were detected within its borders and that drastic preventive measures — including sealing the nation's borders — have proved effective in keeping the coronavirus at bay.

That has been virtually impossible to confirm, particularly since there are no longer any international aid or public health organizations in the country.

Experts say, however, it is extremely unlikely that the North has escaped completely unscathed; particularly given its geographical location bordering China, the original source of the outbreak, and its previous heavy reliance on China for both exports and imports.

 

11. ‘Quiet warrior’ takes reins of US Forces Korea as Abrams ends 39-year Army career

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · July 2, 2021

 

--------------

 

"I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do."

- Charlie Munger

 

"One of the most important reasons for studying history is that virtually every stupid idea that is in vogue today has been tried before and provides disastrous before, time and again".

- Thomas Sowell

 

"Age does not bring wisdom. Often it merely changes simple stupidity into arrogant conceit. Its only advantage, so far as I have been able to see, is that it spans change. A young person sees the world as a still picture, immutable. An old person has had his nose rubbed in changes and more changes and still more changes so many times that he knows it is a moving picture, forever changing. he may not like it – probably doesn't; I don't – but he knows it's so, and knowing it is the first step in coping with it." 

- Robert Heinlein - Time Enough for Love

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. shortlists N. Korea among worst nations in trafficking of humans

2.  New HRNK Report Highlights The UN Role In Promoting And Protecting Human Rights In The DPRK

3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Publicly Blames Senior Officials for COVID-19 Failures

4. Kim Jong-un signal for help could mark a turning point in North Korea’s Covid fight

5. Is North Korea At Its Breaking Point? Not Yet.

6. Reports of people ‘starving’ as N Korea struggles to feed itself

7. Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning

8. Gen. LaCamera takes office as new U.S. Forces Korea chief

9. Unification ministry says it does not know about Moon-Kim letter exchanges

10. N. Korea's No. 2 leader keeps his seat in recent reshuffle, holds key party meeting

11. Eighth Army issues mask mandate as US Forces Korea works to stamp out coronavirus clusters

12. Can China Help Create Strategic Stability on the Korean Peninsula?

13. North Korea's young generation becomes headache for Kim Jong-un

14. South Korea's Moon and North's Kim exchanged letters ahead of Biden summit: Newspaper

15. Gen. Paul LaCamera takes over as leader of U.S. Forces Korea

16. U.S. awaits constructive response from Pyongyang for dialogue: State Dept.

17. New US general stresses team spirit amid disputes

18. North Korea creates new "social order disciplinary units" to squash "non-socialist behavior"

19. North Korean leadership faults military for causing "grave incident"

 

1. U.S. shortlists N. Korea among worst nations in trafficking of humans

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 2, 2021

One of the many tragedies and atrocities of the Kim family regime. Just ask the many escapees who have suffered at the hands of the regime. And of course China is complicit in human rights abuses of Koreans. China could reduce trafficking by providing Koreans who cross the border with refugee status and giving them the necessary protection until they can travel to South Korea.

This is one of the many reasons why we need to take a human rights up front. It is important that the new Korea policy of the Biden administration will include human rights.

 

2. New HRNK Report Highlights The UN Role In Promoting And Protecting Human Rights In The DPRK

hrnk.org · June 30, 2021

The 120 page report can be downloaded here: 

Excerpt: “According to author David Hawk, “this monograph carefully details the history of North Korea's interaction with the United Nations, particularly the changes in the DPRK's stance toward human rights following the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry Report, after which North Korea became much more tactically open and engaged regarding the human rights of its citizens.” Hawk further adds: “As endorsed by the General Assembly, the UN proffers a two-track approach to North Korea: accountability and engagement. Presently both approaches are stymied. But if conditions possibly improve, the steps that North Korea and its interlocuters -- governmental, inter-governmental and non-governmental -- should take are clearly outlined by the UN processes detailed in this HRNK account.”

 

3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Publicly Blames Senior Officials for COVID-19 Failures

rfa.org · by Jieun Kim, Yongjae Mok and Soyoung Kim

But he accepts no responsibility himself. He exercises such central control over everything that there can be no one else to blame.

It is a significant decision to close schools for the remainder of the year. However, the regime may be using COVID as an excuse to employ even greater numbers of child laborers for regime "projects."

 

4. Kim Jong-un signal for help could mark a turning point in North Korea’s Covid fight

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · July 1, 2021

My guess (and it is only a guess and not even an estimate or assessment) is that we are still a long way from Kim asking for or accepting outside help. Kim fears the Korean people in the north more than COVID and more than the US. I think he will milk the COVID situation to continue to crack down on (what he defines as) corruption, increase oppression of the wavering and hostile classes, and double down on centralized control of the economy, currency, internal movement, communications, and information. 

Then again, he could be laying the groundwork to make a huge demand for outside assistance. It is possible that he might play on the heartstrings of the international community and try to manipulate conditions to get sanctions relief in the name of helping the Korean people. We should never forget that the reason the people are suffering is not sanctions but the deliberate policy decisions of Kim himself. Sanctions relief will not help the people who need help. If sanctions relief is provided we must expect Kim to renew his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.

 

5. Is North Korea At Its Breaking Point? Not Yet.

The National Interest · by Laura Rockwood, Jaewoo Shin, and Matthew Frank · July 1,

Yes, that is probably correct. Not yet. Although I push hard that we must be observing for indicators, they will be hard to observe and decipher. But things could continue to look stable and then rapidly deteriorate if the conditions of regime collapse occur. Therefore, we must be ready.

Quote from "Should The United States Support for Korean Unification And If So, How?"

Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime, combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom-up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse, the regime’s demise is more likely to result from its inability to support the military and security services. Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “deprioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict, as actors fight to retain power and resources. In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of his family’s regime (in his calculus). However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spillover, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and could still be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the negative effects of regime collapse. (page 144-145, http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467285_add_file_7.pdf)

Here are two graphics (that Bob Collins I developed in the 1990s and which I have shared before) that provide some possible instability, conflict, and collapse scenarios and the implosion-explosion paradox.

 

 

6.  Reports of people ‘starving’ as N Korea struggles to feed itself

Al Jazeera English · by Frank Smith

Sanctions are not crippling. Kim Jong-un's policies are crippling.

 

7.  Kim Jong Un rediscovers his love of central planning

The Economist · July 3, 2021

The Economist gets it. Why is no one else proving this kind of reporting? This succinct article explains the emergence from the Arduous March, the rise of the graymarkets to the growth of the moneyed class to the current crackdown on market activity using COVID as the excuse from the imposition of draconian population and resources control measures. Why? To ensure Kim remains in control and in power.

Excerpt: “In theory, the dire situation should provide an opening for re-engagement with the outside world. South Korea has repeatedly offered to send food aid and, more recently, vaccines. Sung Kim, America’s special envoy for North Korea, said during a visit to Seoul in June that he is willing to meet his counterpart “anywhere, anytime, without preconditions”. North Korea has publicly rebuffed all overtures. Mr Kim’s slightly less corpulent appearance suggests not so much a sense of crisis as that, as always, he is looking after himself.

 

8. Gen. LaCamera takes office as new U.S. Forces Korea chief

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 2, 2021

A very nice ceremony. Thank you to USFK PAO for streaming it live on social media so we could watch it virtually last evening.

 

9. Unification ministry says it does not know about Moon-Kim letter exchanges

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 2, 2021

I hope north and South can start zooming.

Excerpt: “Cha, however, added that South Korea is equipped to hold an inter-Korean virtual summit anytime as it has completed setting up a conference room specifically designed to hold negotiations with the North via a video system in April.”

 

10. N. Korea's No. 2 leader keeps his seat in recent reshuffle, holds key party meeting

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 2, 2021

We are starting to see how things are sorting out. But the most dangerous position to be in is the one people designate as number 2.

Excerpt: “The latest meeting further raises the possibility that Ri Pyong-chol, vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party, has been dismissed.

Video footage aired earlier on Korean Central Television showed officials at the politburo meeting voting on personnel issues, with the exception of Ri and Pak Jong-chon, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army.

Ri and Pak did not raise their hands up to vote, in an indication that the top two military officers have been dismissed.

So how is control of the military? Is Kim maintaining its support? Is the military and its three chains of control still coherent and intact?

 

11. Eighth Army issues mask mandate as US Forces Korea works to stamp out coronavirus clusters

Stars and Stripes · by Matthew M. Burke · July 1, 2021

The question I have is were these personnel vaccinated or are they part of the 20% still as yet unvaccinated?

Excerpts: “The command reported 10 new cases of the coronavirus respiratory disease on Wednesday evening. The new patients — nine service members and one family member — tested positive between Saturday and Tuesday, a statement said.

Four service members at Casey, one at Camp Carroll, and a dependent of a service member stationed at K-16 in Seoul tested positive after coming into close contact with positive individuals, the statement said.

One service member stationed at Humphreys, one at Casey and another at K-16 tested positive Monday and Tuesday after developing COVID-19 symptoms, according to the statement. Another service member assigned to Casey tested positive on Tuesday prior to returning to the United States.

USFK also announced in the statement that approximately 80% of its community has been vaccinated, and less than 1% of its active-duty force is infected with COVID-19.

 

12. Can China Help Create Strategic Stability on the Korean Peninsula?

The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · July 1, 2021

Perhaps it can use the Chinese calculus but it probably will not suit US and ROK/US alliance interests.

 

13. North Korea's young generation becomes headache for Kim Jong-un

The Korea Times · by Yoon Ja-young · July 2, 2021

He can't handle the youth! Too Much exposure to foreign culture. Just imagine if we made a concerted effort to conduct a comprehensive information and influence campaign.

Excerpts: “Kim said in April that the culture of the young people is a critical problem that cannot be overlooked anymore as the fate of the party, revolution, country and its people are at stake. He ordered an inspection of young people's fashion, hairstyles, and the way they talk and behave.

However, Seo said it is doubtful whether this will work.

"The regime is working hard to prevent their ideological deviation as well as enhancing their loyalty to the regime. However, it is out of touch with reality. Young people aren't accepting those schemes as their parents did in the past."

Park noted in a report that famine is not what the regime fears.

"For at least the next five years, there won't be massive famine or death from starvation as seen in mid 1990s unless there is a series of massive natural disasters. It's because those who have grown up with the market economy in North Korea are now equipped with mechanisms for survival," she said.

"What the Kim Jong-un regime fears most is deviation among its people who have tasted money and freedom. It's time to note what survival strategies the North Korean people take against the regime's reign of terror."

 

14.  South Korea's Moon and North's Kim exchanged letters ahead of Biden summit: Newspaper

channelnewsasia.com

Circular reporting but without the Unification Ministry saying it has no knowledge of this. If letters were exchanged they probably went through intelligence channels versus through the Unification Ministry. Maybe the MOU was cut out of the loop on this, if it occurred at all.

 

15. Gen. Paul LaCamera takes over as leader of U.S. Forces Korea

UPI · by Thomas Maresca · July 2, 2021

And the United Nations Command and the ROK//US Combined Forces Command and as the Senior US Military Officer in Korea (and a member of the Military Committee) (he wears 4 hats)

It was interesting to watch during the ceremony as each commander and the Command Sergeant Major changed patches for each passing of the colors. When I was in the ROK/US CFC (and UNC and USFK) we did not wear any patches. As I recall those assigned solely to USFK wore a USFK patch and those of us assigned to multiple commands did not wear any patches. Of course back then we did not have Velcro patches either making it easy to exchange them during the ceremony. It would have been pretty time consuming to have to sew on a new one for each passing of the colors.

 

16. U.S. awaits constructive response from Pyongyang for dialogue: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · July 2, 2021

Yes, the operative word is constructive. That would mean Kim has decided to act as a responsible member of the international community.

 

17. New US general stresses team spirit amid disputes

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 2, 2021

Interesting title. I did a double take and thought I missed something in General LaCamera's speech. Did he call for a renewal of the Team Spirit exercise? No he did not. The Korean Herald headline editor decided on that title.

Good words here: “We learn from each other, we create combat readiness together and more importantly, we build trust together,” LaCamera said.

 

18. North Korea creates new "social order disciplinary units" to squash "non-socialist behavior"

dailynk.com · July 2, 2021

So would this be  a new "gestapo like" organization?

Again, who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?

 

19. North Korean leadership faults military for causing "grave incident"

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · July 2, 2021

Now this is significant. Kim only remains in power with the support of the military. Did the military have an outbreak? I think I recall the reports of 200 or more soldiers quarantined last year for respiratory ailments.

 

-------------

 

“When God puts his hands on a man, I take my hands off."

- Sen Thomas Hart Benton (1782-1858)

 

"We got a mountain to move." 

- General Paul J. LaCamera, UNC/CFC/USFK Commander, 2 July 2021, Change of Command

 

"Paymasters come in only two sizes:one sort shows you where the book says that you can't have what you've got coming to yo; he second sort digs through the book until he finds a paragraph that lets you have what you need even if you don't rate it."

- Robert Heinlein - The Door into Summer

 

I recommend a new custom for UNC/CFC/USFK. When two military personnel meet and salute, the first will say "Katchi Kapshida" and the response will be "We got a mountain to move." (derived from the Korean adage about all working together can move a mountain - General Abrams used this adage in his speech and General LaCamera concluded his speech with "we got a mountain to move.").