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British Reporter John Oliver attempts a key leader interview in an ungoverned space/denied area. In order to accomplish his task, he must covertly infiltrate, blend in with the local populace, gain their trust, and obtain actionable intelligence for the disposition/composition of his target.

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Imposing a No-fly Zone in Libya

Imposing a No-fly Zone in Libya - WTOP radio interview with Robert Haddick, managing editor for Small Wars Journal, who wrote the "This Week at War" column at Foreign Policy concerning the 'Jawbreaker' option.

Some Advice to Evil Dictators

Some Advice to Evil Dictators

by Steven Eden

Things look pretty bleak for monarchs, presidents, and mullahs from Casablanca to Tehran these days. Crowds in the street, hesitant soldiers, frightened policemen, breathless commentators, shaky governments...it's enough to make any strongman cry. Revolution is in the air and sparks drifting from country to country are setting folks ablaze, which given the dry climate can't be good.

One option would be to go with the flow and declare yourself a closet libertarian -- who knew -- but if you're intent on maintaining the privileges of yourself and your cronies, there are grounds for hope. All is not lost for the forces of oppression.

Think back to 1848. Restive populations in Europe groaned beneath the weight of antiquated regimes. Ideas about democracy, liberty, free trade, and the like percolated in every non-aristocratic breast. A local insurrection in Sicily, of all places, set off a chain reaction of uprisings that sent princes, kings, and prime ministers packing. There was some feeble resistance from the old order, but most of the armies had soon retreated to their barracks and the forces of change were triumphant almost everywhere. Ripples were even felt in the United Kingdom and Imperial Russia on the edges of the continent.

Fast forward to 1850. Order, for the most part, is restored. There have been changes, yes, but practically everywhere the aristocracy has reasserted its power and will remain there for almost another three generations. Even the latest French Republic is on its last legs and will soon disappear. How did that happen? Below some tips for crushing reform:

1. Drown People Power in Blood. Inelegant, yes, but an old favorite that still can be effective. There has been a lot of blather lately about non-violent resistance, but frankly the numbers of successful cases that can be brought forward to support its supposed utility are very small. It should also be noted that it has only worked against regimes that are either unwilling, unable, or constrained from using force against the populace. Otherwise the kill-ratio for armed forces versus peaceful protesters has been consistently excellent (cf Syria, China, Saddam's Iraq). The thing is you need an army that is —to murder indiscriminately for the regime, either through personal loyalty or more likely because if you go down they go down. If you haven't cultivated one ahead of time, you're not going to be able to employ them now. Even if you do have a handy band of thugs to do your bidding, the relief is short-term and almost never a long-term solution. But if you just need a short breathing space to solidify your support or transfer money to a Caribbean bank account, violence can be a very efficient means of tamping down protest. One note of caution: don't be half-hearted. Killing a handful of innocents is far worse than killing several thousand. It makes you look fearful, weak, and indecisive.

2. Buy Time. In the old Ottoman Empire, every time a threatening crowd besieged the sultan's palace, he would throw a vizier's head out the window. This would satisfy the mob and things pretty rapidly got back to normal. If you're not going to fight back, the only things you can do are delay and hope the revolution runs out of steam, which it will unless some unifying figure arises. There are only so many Mandelas, Kings, and Ghandis out there, however, so chances are buying time is an excellent tactic. Below, some time-tested means for stretching out an uprising:

A. Sacrifice some henchmen. Dismiss your puppet government, call for elections, or execute a few security chiefs. Hopefully you have set up ahead of time some heinous strawmen that you can blame for all your problems. Your henchmen won't like it, but they're professionals and will understand it's only business.

B. Set up some talking shops. Put the revolutionaries in charge. Let them form a government or an advisory council, or cede them some forms of local power. Just make sure all factions are represented. Before you know it they will stop attacking you and will be tearing each other to bits. Even better, the people in the streets, thinking a real victory has been won, will go home. An especially effective technique is to let the rebels write a new constitution. This will occupy all their time and energy, and will exacerbate the numerous conflicts among the various parties.

C. Abase yourself. OK, this is tough. You wouldn't be an evil dictator if you didn't have an extraordinarily high opinion of yourself, and you might think this will just make you an object of contempt. On the contrary, crowds love to see the mighty fallen, and you were popular at one time after you deposed the king or drove out the colonial power or whatever. And I am not asking you to go on Oprah, just to make speeches acknowledging certain excesses and expressing delight in the spirit and wisdom of your people; wearing some form of revolutionary apparel or waving their standard from your palace balcony; having your children join the crowds (not the eldest son, just in case) and the like. Resign whatever fake offices you held. Retreat from public life and wait.

3. The Come-back. So you have diverted the energy and hostility of the crowds from yourself and turned it inwards. Now comes the long road to a return to power. Be advised: you are unlikely to have as firm a grasp on power as you had before. But it beats hanging from your heels like a Mussolini pií±ata or enforced retirement in Uganda.

A. International support. Quietly seek the aid of international partners, such as like-minded dictators or others who will hold their nose and support you. You are lucky that you live in the region that you do, as there are many out there who fear the descent of oil-producing countries into chaos. Don't be afraid to paint some pretty vivid pictures of what might happen after you are gone. You probably won't get foreign military intervention or even public acknowledgement, but a quiet word from the French, Chinese, or Americans can do wonders.

B. Hold on to the Army. Hopefully you've recruited the army from a minority, or from your tribe, or from some portion of society ostracized by the rest. Hopefully you have at least a kernel that will remain both semi-competent and loyal. If not, be extremely cautious about the demands you make on them. Every army is different and will require unique handling, but however you do it remember that it will be impossible to maintain any semblance of power without their support. Don't be discouraged if they abandon you early on; they will come around if you follow the paragraphs below and remain the country's best hope for stability and order, which they crave above all else. Do not rely on the secret police -- they are neither well enough armed or numerous enough to deal with a roused population, and they wouldn't be in the secret police if they weren't sniveling, self-serving bastards anyway.

C. Scare-monger. In 1848 the European nobility were able to point out what had happened after the last revolution: Napoleon and two decades of major war. They also had a minority party that scared the bejeesus out of the bourgeoisie. The specter of communism helped bring significant portions of the disaffected back in line. You can do the same. Some current favorites: the Americans will take advantage of the chaos, the Islamists will emerge, terrorists will arise, and remember the Shah. You may be able to craft others according to your local circumstances. The bottom line is to induce second thoughts after the excitement of street action has died away.

D. Make targeted concessions. The revolutionaries are going to be divided. It might be tribal, or rural versus urban, or east versus west, or indigenous versus immigrant, or Shia versus Sunni, or some other flavor of controversy. Especially in a region where politics is still seen as a zero-sum game, you should be able to buy off or weaken enthusiasm for the revolution among one sector or another. Frankly, you should have done this before things got so bad, but let's not cry over spilled goat's milk. Anyway, you don't even need to get credit for this, so long as a significant portion of the populace is now satisfied that they have reaped the fruits of the revolution. They will, in all likelihood, begin to resent the revolutionary powers for continuing to agitate for gains that do not concern them, and will begin to drift back into your camp. In 1848, land reform satisfied the peasantry in many areas and divided them from the liberal (urban) windbags who insisted on keeping the pot boiling.

E. Become an Honest Broker. You don't actually have to become honest, just appear to be so. Put yourself forward as a friend of the revolution and reform. Offer to adjudicate disputes, enforce the dicta of the revolutionary council/parliament/government, and do your best to maintain order. Believe me, 90% of revolutions are run by loons, eggheads, and/or boneheads. You will have plenty of chances to help. With any luck, you will be called upon to suppress violent protests against the revolution. Crush them mercilessly. This will win you friends and discredit the revolution.

If you follow this advice, it is likely that the populace will rapidly tire of the disorder and chaos of change, and begin to yearn for the old days (personified by you). Especially if you have paved the way with a few targeted concessions (painful, I know, but critical) and made some improvements to your image as a friend of the people, it shouldn't be too hard to seize upon some pretext and squash the revolution. Make sure you've made watch lists of all those involved, though. They'll be back.

Steven Eden is a retired Armor officer and planner with a long-term interest in the Middle East and a graduate degree in European History.

7 March SWJ Roundup

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Rebel Advance in Libya Set Back by Heavy Assault - New York Times

Gaddafi Forces Repel Libyan Opposition - Washington Post

Libya Rebels, Regime Both Claim Victories - Los Angeles Times

Libyan Rebels Try to Regroup After Setback - Associated Press

Violence in Libya Sows Fears of Long Civil War - Washington Post

Gadhafi Could Wage Protracted Civil War - Washington Times

Gaddafi Counter-Offensives Raise Civil War Fears - Reuters

Gaddafi Launches Counter-Offensive on Libyan Rebels - Reuters

Libyan Rebels Continue Drive Toward Tripoli - Voice of America

Rebels Battle Gaddafi Offensive - BBC News

Free of Qaddafi, City Tries to Build a New Order - New York Times

Libyan Rebels Beat Back Attack on Misrata-Residents - Reuters

Gadhafi Forces Attack Rebels Advancing West - Voice of America

U.S. Weighs Options, on Air and Sea - New York Times

America's Secret Plan to Arm Libya's Rebels - The Independent

U.S. Senators Call for No-flight Zone Over Libya - New York Times

Congressional Ldrs. Push for More Aggressive Response - Washington Post

GOP Prods Obama on Libya - Wall Street Journal

British Team Leaves Libya After Being Held by Rebels - Voice of America

U.K. Diplomatic Team Leaves Libya After Problems - Associated Press

In Venezuela, Chavez Tries to Boost Gaddafi - Washington Post

A Libyan Leader at War With Rebels, and Reality - New York TImes

Gadhafi: Shrewd, Eccentric, or Insane? - Voice of America

Egypt Protesters Attacked by 'Armed Civilians' in Cairo - BBC News

State Security HQ Overrun in Cairo - Washington Post

Armed Men Attack Protesters Outside Cairo Police HQ - Reuters

Egypt Gets New Foreign and Interior Ministers - Voice of America

Answering the Public, Egypt Names a New Cabinet - New York Times

New Egypt PM Names Most of New Cabinet - Associated Press

New Egypt FM Likely to be Tougher on Israel - Washington Post

Thousands Protest at Bahrain Prime Minister's Office - Voice of America

Shiite Protesters in Bahrain Besiege PM Office - Associated Press

Bahrain's Promised Spending Fails to Quell Dissent - New York Times

Senior Saudi Clerics Forbid Protests - Voice of America

Saudi Arabia Detains Shi'ites as Clerics Ban Protests - Reuters

In Kuwait, a Long Battle to Oust the Prime Minister - Washington Post

Thousands Protest Against Lebanon's Sectarian System - Reuters

U.S. Warns Americans in Yemen - Washington Post

Government Backers Attack Protesters in Yemen - Associated Press

How to Help Egypt - Washington Post opinion

Israel / Palestinians

Israeli PM: World Conditioned to Back Palestinians - Associated Press

Israel Plans Work at Contested Jerusalem Holy Site - Reuters

Iraq

Neighborhood Celebrates as a Wall Is Taken Away - New York Times

Iraq Blast Kills 6 in Oil-Rich Basra - Associated Press

Iran

Chávez May Be Violating Iran Sanctions - Wall Street Journal

Iran's Opportunity In The Persian Gulf - STRATFOR / Forbes

Afghanistan

Gates in Afghanistan to Assess Troop Withdrawals - New York Times

Gates in Afghanistan to Evaluate War Progress - Associated Press

Casualties Take Focus From Gates's Afghan Trip - Reuters

Afghan Prison an Insurgent Breeding Ground - Washington Post

U.S. Rebuilds Afghan Village it Destroyed - Los Angeles Times

Karzai Condemns Civilian Casualties by NATO Troops - Voice of America

Karzai Rejects U.S. Apology for Deaths of 9 Boys - New York Times

Karzai Rebukes U.S. Over Civilian Deaths - BBC News

Afghan President Rejects U.S. Apology Over Killings - Associated Press

Roadside Bomb Kills Afghanistan Civilians - BBC News

Pakistan

New U.S. Envoy Visits Pakistan Amid Tensions - Associated Press

Piracy

USS Bulkeley Frees Ship, Crew from Suspected Pirates - Virginian-Pilot

U.S. Navy Frees Ship From Indian Ocean Pirates - CNN News

U.S. Commandos Capture 4 Suspected Pirates in Raid - Associated Press

U.S. Department of Defense

Navy Readies for End of 'Don't Ask' - Washington Post

United States

Partisan Divide Continues on U.S. Federal Budget - Voice of America

Obama Considers Tapping Oil Reserve - New York Times

White House Seeks to Allay Muslims' Fears - New York Times

House Panel to Look at Radicalization of U.S. Muslims - Associated Press

New Zealand

Earthquake Could Cost New Zealand $11 Billion - Reuters

Africa

Abyei Clashes Cloud North-South Sudan Talks - Voice of America

Sudan Central Bank Governor Resigns Ahead of Secession - Reuters

Ivory Coast: Clashes and Looting Amid Political Crisis - BBC News

Ivory Coast Rebels Claim to Expand Their Advance - New York Times

Ivorian Rebels Claim Capture of Another Town - Reuters

South Sudan Militia Clashes Kill at Least 56 - Reuters

Houses Looted by Police in Ivory Coast - Associated Press

African Union Head Leaves Ivory Coast After Talks With Rival Leaders - VOA

Somali Forces Take Border Town From Rebels - New York Times

Somali Official: Pro-Gov't Force Takes 2nd Town - Associated Press

Kenya Arrests Somali Man With American Passport - Associated Press

Americas

In Mexico's Drug War, Loved Ones Simply Vanish - Los Angeles Times

Mexican Church Takes a Closer Look at Donors - New York Times

Gunmen Kill 3 at Bar Near U.S. Consulate in Juarez - Associated Press

Personality Divides Haiti's Presidential Candidates - Los Angeles Times

Asia Pacific

China Security Tight After New Protest Calls - BBC News

China Tracks Foreign Journalists - New York Times

Beijing Tightens Controls Over Foreign Media - Associated Press

China Sees Positive Trend in Ties With U.S. - Associated Press

China Says U.S. Must Stop Taiwan Arms Sales - Reuters

China's Leadership Cowers - Washington Post editorial

Japanese FM Quits Over Illegal Campaign Donation - Voice of America

Japan Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara Resigns - BBC News

North Korea Proposes Talks on 4 People's Defection - Associated Press

Vietnam Releases Human Rights Lawyer From Prison - Associated Press

Tibet Leader Says Separatism Still a Threat - Associated Press

Agents Say Tibet Closed to Foreigners in March - Associated Press

Europe

German Minister's Comments on Islam Stir Debate - New York Times

Ireland's Opposition Groups Form Coalition Government - Associated Press

Estonia's Center-Right Coalition Wins Election - Reuters

Ex-President Chirac Faces French Corruption Trial - Associated Press

Turkey Charges Five More Journalists Over Coup Plot - Reuters

South Asia

India Ally to Quit Cabinet, Coalition Safe for Now - Reuters

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US Naval Institute: An Open Letter by Captain Victor Addison, U.S. Navy (Ret.)

(Posted at Information Dissemination - Bolded emphasis SWJ.)

For too many years, I have not paid close attention to the governance of the U.S. Naval Institute. I have taken for granted the fact that the Institute would always provide the "independent forum" that allows us to freely explore and share ideas in a public environment unencumbered by bureaucracy, rank, or politics. Since 1873, commands around the world have had spirited professional discussions that began with the phrase: "did you read the article in this month's Proceedings about...?" As an active duty Naval Officer, I always knew that I was free to enter these discussions--or even start one of my own—without fear of censorship or reprisal. Now that freedom is threatened by a proposal to change the Institute into an advocacy-based organization. As a loyal USNI Life member, I recommend the following:

1. Vote "no" on this initiative. Your vote counts and we need numbers to make sure this issue is resolved decisively.

2. Publicly support the continuing service of our USNI CEO, Tom Wilkerson. He is an extraordinarily courageous and innovative leader who has the Institute on the right course.

3. Publicly demand the creation of an independent panel to develop recommendations—subject to membership approval—that will improve USNI governance. For example, our current governance process is obviously tilted toward nominating retired flag officers, former senior defense officials, and corporate executives for election to the USNI Board of Directors. This demographic group is not representative of the diverse character of our USNI membership.

I have personally contributed to this unfortunate state of affairs by not paying close enough attention to USNI governance issues. I will not be making that mistake again. Please vote "NO" on this important initiative and let your voice be heard.

Gates in Afghanistan to Assess Troop Withdrawals

Gates in Afghanistan to Assess Troop Withdrawals by Elisabeth Bumiller New York Times. "... unannounced trip to meet with President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and begin assessments to determine the number of American troops to be withdrawn from the country in July."

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Bing West's "The Wrong War," on Afghanistan Strategy

Bing West's "The Wrong War," on Afghanistan Strategy - Washington Post book review by Chris Bray. BLUF: "... West ends his descriptive and analytical narrative with prescription, in a chapter titled 'The Way Out.' Some of the solutions he offers here raise more questions than they answer, such as his observation that the availability of sanctuary in Pakistan makes it impossible to defeat an enemy that can leave Afghanistan to survive and regroup. This is true and widely acknowledged, but West joins the rest of us in having no particular answer to the dilemma. Most important, though, West argues for Afghans to assume the lead in securing Afghanistan. The time has surely come to take that suggestion - and the book in which it appears - seriously."

Also see Small Wars Journal editor Mike Few's The Wrong War: Grit, Strategy, and the Way Out of Afghanistan: An Interview with Bing West.

Undermanned, Overwhelmed

Undermanned, Overwhelmed by Dan Green Armed Forces Journal. BLUF: "Much of our approach to stability operations has been about doing what our bureaucracies are comfortable with rather than dealing with the problem of insurgency on its own terms. A significant portion of our approach is capital-centric, biased toward formal government institutions, focused on long-term development versus stabilization and imperfectly partnered with the U.S. military."

The Army's Foreign Area Officer Program: To Wither or to Improve?

The Army's Foreign Area Officer Program: To Wither or to Improve? By Lieutenant Colonel Daniel E Moutan, Army Magazine. BLUF "The Army has come a long way in establishing a professional FAO program that supports service and joint requirements. It must refocus the program, however, and provide the guidance, assignments and resources to make the program more relevant to the ongoing operations in which our military is engaged."

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