Conference: New Ways of War?
1-2 June 2011
Clinton Institute for American Studies, University College Dublin
This conference will examine both the ways in which the nature of contemporary armed conflict is changing and the historical roots of that change. The recent American experience with insurgency in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to a new debate on the nature of contemporary conflict. Newly popular concepts such as 'irregular warfare', 'asymmetric conflict', 'hybrid war', 'fourth generation warfare' and even 'War 2.0' all describe a form of conflict that involves far more actors -- including insurgents, criminal gangs, peacekeepers, civilians, NGOs, international organizations, foreign governments and media outlets -- than does warfare as traditionally conceived. However, these issues, new as they seem, have a past. The historical American experience of 'small wars' provides the backdrop for current debates on counterinsurgency. We invite panels and papers that explore any aspect of the contested history of insurgency and counterinsurgency, broadly defined.
This conference considers the historical and contemporary experience of insurgency and counterinsurgency and is particularly, but not exclusively, concerned with the ways in which past experiences with insurgency and counterinsurgency are refracted through current concerns. Possible topics could include but are not limited to:
•Lesson-learning and the uses of history: How do policy-makers and institutions use the experiences of the past to inform their decision-making and doctrine?• Modernization ideology and development as counterinsurgency: how have ideologies of modernization influenced counterinsurgency doctrine and practice?
• Representations: how have the experiences of 'small wars' been represented in literature, music and film?
• The New Media Landscape: how have media organizations negotiated the terrain of 'new wars', where traditional landmarks and narratives are absent?
• Criminality and Organized Violence in Contemporary Conflict: how has the nature of organized violence changed? Does the rise of non-state actors point to a shift in how we perceive and discuss 'war'?
• Intentions and consequences: Does the nature of 'small wars' help explain the increasing disconnection between a government's stated objectives at the beginning of a conflict and the actual outcomes.
Plenary speakers include Professor Hew Strachan, Oxford University, and Professor Mark Grimsley, The Ohio State University.
UCD invites single paper and panel proposals for this conference. Please send an email to david.fitzgerald@ucd.ie with the following information:
1. Name, contact details and academic affiliation
2. Paper title
3. 200-300 word abstract
4. Brief CV or biographical statement
Deadline for submission of abstracts: 11 April 2011
19 March SWJ Roundup
Up to the Minute Updates... - Stars and Stripes
Nuclear Emergency Could Last Weeks - Washington Post
Few Options to Prevent Japan Nuclear Catastrophe - Los Angeles Times
Bid to 'Protect Assets' Slowed Reactor Fight - Wall Street Journal
Japan Still Struggling to Cool Down Reactors - Los Angeles Times
Japan's PM Says Nuclear Situation 'Very Grave' - Voice of America
Japanese Finally Admit Radiation Leak Serious Enough to Kill - Daily Mail
Japan Raises Nuclear Alert Level - BBC News
Nuclear Official Urges Japan to be More Forthcoming - Washington Post
Frantic Cooling Efforts Continue at Japan's Crippled Nuclear Plant - VOA
Japan Lays Power Cable in Race to Stop Radiation - Reuters
The Stranded Await the Merciful - New York Times
Gates Authorizes Humanitarian Funds for Japan - AFPS
U.S. Forces Continue to Provide Relief - Stars and Stripes
Helping Japan Now Pacific Command's Top Priority - AFPS
Radiation Levels In Japan Causing Concern in Other Countries - VOA
U.S. Families Must Decide Whether to Stay or Go - Stars and Stripes
More Foreigners Are Seeking to Flee Japan - New York Times
Will the Crisis Create a New Japan? - Washington Post opinion
Afghanistan
House Rejects Quick Drawdown from Afghanistan - Associated Press
Afghan Institutions Making Strides, Petraeus Says - AFPS
Marines Use Destruction to Succeed in Afghanistan - Associated Press
U.S. Agency Ends Accounting Firm's Afghan Contract - New York Times
Pakistan
CIA Drones Kill Civilians in Pakistan - Associated Press
Pakistan Pulls Out of Talks with U.S. on Afghan War - Los Angeles Times
After Strike, Pakistan Cancels U.S.-Afghan Talks - Associated Press
Calls for Revenge After U.S. Drones Kill 40 - BBC News
Middle East / North Africa Unrest
White House Appears Reluctant to Take Hard Line - Washington Post
Clinton Encounters Frustration with U.S. Stance - Washington Post
Other Regimes Emboldened by Kadafi's Tactics - Los Angeles Times
Latest Updates on Libya and Arab Uprisings - New York Times
Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - Associated Press
Libya
Allies Rally to Stop Gadhafi - Wall Street Journal
U.N. Security Council Backs 'All Necessary Measures' - Washington Post
Allies Rally to Stop Gadhafi - Wall Street Journal
Obama: Gaddafi Must Comply with U.N. Resolution - Washington Post
Obama Takes Hard Line With Libya - New York Times
Obama Gives Ultimatum to Gaddafi - BBC News
Obama Warns Libya, but Attacks Go On - New York Times
Gadhafi Forces Continue Assaults, Despite Cease-Fire - Washington Times
Obama: U.S., Allies to Stop Killing in Libya - AFPS
Obama to Gadhafi: Stop or Face Military Action - Associated Press
Military Intervention Looms in Libya - Reuters
Libya Cease-Fire Aims to Outflank No-Fly Zone - Associated Press
Cameron Cautious Over Libya Ceasefire Offer - BBC News
Amid Uncertainty, Allies Prepare for No-Fly Zone - Associated Press
Libya: U.S. Takes on Supportive Military Role - Washington Post
U.S. to Deploy More Ships to Support Libya Planning - Reuters
Canada Commits 6 CF-18's to Enforce No-Fly Zone - Globe and Mail
Gadhafi Anti-aircraft Guns a Danger for NATO - Associated Press
Under No-Fly Zone Pressure, Libya Declares Cease-Fire - VOA
Libya Announces Cease-Fire as Intervention Looms - Los Angeles Times
Clinton Cautious on Libyan Cease-Fire - Voice of America
In Tripoli, a Revolution Crushed - Washington Post
Be Ruthless or Stay Out - New York Times opinion
Egypt
Egyptians Brace for First Test on Democracy - Voice of America
Egypt to Vote on Constitutional Amendments - Los Angeles Times
Egypt Gets First Taste of a Free Vote in Decades - Associated Press
Egyptians Gear Up for First Post-Mubarak Vote - Reuters
Cairo Activists Now Struggle With Politics - New York Times
Sharp Divide in Egyptian Vote on Constitution - Reuters
ElBaradei Says Egypt Should Say 'No' in Referendum - Associated Press
Yemen
Reporter Sees Hundreds of Wounded in Hospital - Voice of America
Dozens of Protesters Are Killed in Yemen - New York Times
Dozens of Protesters Shot Dead in Yemen - Los Angeles Times
Gunmen Kill 45 Protesters in Yemen - Wall Street Journal
'Dozens Killed' as Gunmen Target Rally - BBC News
From Rooftops, Snipers Kill 46 Protesters - Associated Press
Yemen in State of Emergency After Protest Massacre - Reuters
Bahrain
Bahrain Funeral Turns into Defiant Protest - Los Angeles Times
Bahrain Tears Down Monument as Protesters Seethe - New York Times
Bahrain Opposition Left Voiceless - Washington Post
Bahrain Army Demolishes Monument at Pearl Square - Associated Press
Bahrain to Pursue Talks, Receive More Gulf Troops - Reuters
Saudi Role in Bahrain Brings Regional Stakes - Associated Press
Jordan
Jordanians Protest Despite National Dialogue Start - Associated Press
Syria
Protests Return to Syrian Cities - Los Angeles Times
In Syria, Crackdown After Protests - New York Times
Three Killed at Protest in Syria - BBC News
5 Protesters Killed in Syria, Activist Says - Associated Press
U.S. and U.N. Condemn Attacks on Protesters in Syria - Reuters
Iraq
IMF Approves $471 Million in Iraq Funding - Wall Street Journal
Iran
Malaysia: Ship with Illegal Cargo was Iran-bound - Associated Press
NATO ACT
NATO Command Looks to Expand Partnerships - AFPS
NATO Strives to Fill Capability Gaps - AFPS
U.S. Department of Defense
Gates' US$13.6bn Savings Directive - Australian Defence Magazine
Pentagon Overpaid Oilman Up to $200 Million - Washington Post
Army Security Changes After Frankfurt Shooting - Stars and Stripes
Most Americans Back Women in Combat - Washington Post/ABC News poll
Female Soldiers' Suicide Rate Triples When at War - USA Today
Navy Secretary Censures Officers Over Lewd Videos - Stars and Stripes
'Investing in People is Key' at Cyber Command - AFPS
What U.S. Air Power Actually Does - CBS News opinion
United States
Obama, Gates to Leave Washington for Official Visits - Washington Post
CIA Launches Review of Security Officers - Washington Post
U.S. Agrees to Improve Human Rights Record - Associated Press
New Armed Services Chairman Is Ready to Be Heard - Washington Post
Radiation Plume Reaches U.S., Said No Risk - New York Times
Member of Original 29 Code Talkers Dies in Arizona - Associated Press
Africa
South Sudan: SPLA and Athor Clashes 'Kill Scores' - BBC News
U.N. Condemns Mortar Attack on Ivory Coast Market - Associated Press
U.N.: Ivory Coast Shelling in Abidjan 'a War Crime' - BBC News
Dispute Flares Over Kenya Election Date - Voice of America
Police: Sect Kills Healer in Restive N. Nigeria - Associated Press
Senegal Says Arrests Suspected Coup Plotters - Reuters
Americas
Obama Begins Latin America Trip Dogged by World Crises - Reuters
Mexico: 'If Monterrey is Lost, All is Lost' - Washington Post
U.S. Man Killed During Visit to Mexico Border City - Associated Press
14 Suspected Criminals Killed in Clashes in Mexico - Associated Press
Obama Seeks to Mend Strained Relations with Brazil - Washington Post
U.S. and Chile Sign Nuclear Accord - New York Times
U.S. and Chile Sign Nuclear Deal - BBC News
Chavez Calls Off Venezuela's Nuclear Energy Plans - BBC News
Nicaragua's Ortega Registers to Run for New Term - Associated Press
1 Dead, 2 Injured in Protests by Honduras Teachers - Associated Press
Cuba: Castro Supporters Harass Dissident - New York Times
Pro-Government Crowd Taunts Dissidents in Havana - Associated Press
Haiti to Hold Second Round of Elections Sunday - Voice of America
Haiti Braces for Deposed President's Return - Washington Post
Exiled Haitian Leader Aristide Returns Home - Voice of America
Aristide Returns to Haiti Ahead of Runoff Vote - Washington Post
Aristide Returns to Cheers, Uncertainty in Haiti - New York Times
Haiti Ex-leader Aristide Back After Exile - BBC News
Warm Welcome Greets Aristide on Return to Haiti - Associated Press
Asia Pacific
China Frees 7 Tibetan Monks Detained After Protest - New York Times
N. Korea Proposes Joint Volcano Research with South - Associated Press
The 'Blue National Soil' of China's Navy - Washington Post opinion
Europe
Gates, Russian Counterparts to Discuss Defense Reform - AFPS
Russia to Spend $700b on New Weapons - Associated Press
Woman in U.S. Accused of War Crimes Fights Extradition - Associated Press
South Asia
India to Press Ahead With Plans to Generate More Nuclear Energy - VOA
Indian PM Singh Denies Bribing MPs for Votes - BBC News
Mob Kills India Police Inspector - BBC News
This Week at War: Quagmire Ahead
Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:
Topics include:
1) The UN Security Council votes for a quagmire
2) China's missiles sink the Navy's long-range plans
The UN Security Council votes for a quagmire
After a very short discussion, the U.N. Security Council, led by Britain and France, passed a resolution on March 17 that authorizes the use of military force against Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime and forces. The resolution permits the use of "any means necessary" but prohibits a foreign military occupation of Libya. It specifically calls for a no-fly zone and the use of force to protect civilians. The rapid advance of pro-Qaddafi forces toward Benghazi forced the United States to quickly harden its position. Equally surprising were abstentions by China and Russia, allowing the resolution to pass.
Today, Libya responded by declaring a unilateral cease-fire. Qaddafi and his advisors may have been equally surprised by the speed with which the Security Council acted. The declaration of the cease-fire is an interesting gambit by Qaddafi. It will force the international coalition opposing him to suspend the start of an air campaign against Libya. Meanwhile, government forces will still be able to maneuver against rebel positions and move forward equipment and supplies for renewed attacks. And it will give his troops time to switch to an irregular warfare strategy, which I discuss more below.
Obama administration officials may have thought they would have many more days, or possibly weeks, to organize a multilateral response to the Libyan situation. It seems clear they badly misjudged the timetable pro-Qaddafi forces have been able to maintain. Third-world armies have a notoriously poor reputation at military logistics operations, such as frontline supply and vehicle maintenance. But Qaddafi's forces have been able to sustain a remarkably long supply line that now stretches many hundreds of kilometers from their bases near Tripoli. Qaddafi's ability to keep his mechanized spearhead moving forward up to 100 kilometers on some days may have been as surprising to officials in Washington as it was to rebel commanders in Benghazi. Qaddafi's forces were already bombarding Benghazi, and his ground forces should reach the rebel redoubt today or tomorrow.
Although the French government boasted that air strikes against Qaddafi's forces would begin within a few hours after the Security Council vote, organizing an air campaign that will have a meaningful effect on Qaddafi's ground forces will take much longer to organize. Most crucial in this regard is Obama's hesitancy to have U.S. military forces in the lead in this operation. Second is the strong desire by Western powers to have Arab military participation (Qatar and United Arab Emirates are mentioned), hopefully in the very first waves of attacking aircraft. Take away the United States, the most powerful and experienced air power, and add in completely inexperienced Arab air forces, and the result will be many long planning meetings as various European and Arab political and military leaders attempt to cobble together a multilateral air force.
This coalition will not be able to ignore Libya's air defense system, which includes 15 early warning radars, 30 surface-to-air missiles sites, and Qaddafi's fighter aircraft force. Coalition jets will have to suppress this system before they can provide persistent reconnaissance over the battle front and methodically attack Qaddafi's tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery. It is very likely that the battle for Benghazi -- assuming Qaddafi revokes his cease-fire -- will be well advanced before the coalition's air campaign has reached this phase.
The coalition should reckon with Qaddafi's likely responses. Although they are helpful, he does not need his tanks and artillery to regain control of Libya's cities. Once coalition aircraft begin attacking conventional military targets, Qaddafi will switch to irregular warfare techniques. His soldiers and mercenaries will abandon their uniforms and travel by bus, accompanied by civilians, refugees, and friendly media for shielding against air attack. Once inside cities like Benghazi and in close quarters with the rebels, Qaddafi's infantry will similarly be immune from air attack, especially if the coalition is prohibited from deploying ground troops as forward air controllers.
Finally, Qaddafi is a particularly unscrupulous and ruthless adversary with long experience using terrorism as a strategic weapon -- Libya was a large source of suicide bomb volunteers during the Iraq war -- so members of the coalition should expect terror retaliation in various forms.
Although his overseas bank accounts have been seized, Qaddafi already has the necessary money, troops, weapons, and ammunition to sustain a low intensity but brutal campaign against the rebels. The investigation begun by the International Criminal Court has left him and his sons with little choice but to fight on. The United Nations has authorized the wide-ranging use of air power against his regime. Air power will be enough to escalate this war but not enough to win it. Although prohibited for now by the Security Council, "boots on the ground" will eventually be required to remove Qaddafi and his sons from Libya.
Chinese missiles are sinking the Navy's long-range plans
Last week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis of the Navy's shipbuilding plans. The study showed that the Navy's 30-year plan to buy new warships will not keep up with the retirement of aging ships, and thus the Navy will only briefly (around 2023) reach the number of warships it says it needs to accomplish its missions. In addition, the CBO concluded that the Navy has underestimated by 18 percent (or $93 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars) the amount of funding it will need to implement its 30-year plan, a plan that will fall short of its stated requirements.
Although that may sound discouraging enough, rapid advances in both the numbers and lethality of adversary anti-ship missiles will force the Navy to dramatically rethink how it goes about its business. This will very likely mean that the Navy's shipbuilding plan, and CBO's analysis of it, will both soon be sent to the shredder.
In a recent essay published in the Naval War College Review, Vitaliy Pradun, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Chicago, described in detail the rapidly growing threat Chinese missiles pose to U.S. Navy surface warships operating within about 1,000 kilometers of the Chinese coast, a zone that includes many important United States allies and numerous shipping lanes vital to global commerce. According to the CBO, the Navy's shipbuilding plan contemplates the purchase of 142 new surface combat ships over the next 30 years. Pradun's description of the threat posed by missiles to these ships calls into question the viability of the Navy's plan.
Rather than attempting to match the United States in aircraft carriers or warship and aircraft quality, Pradun describes how the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has carefully focused its resources on missile development and acquisition in order to achieve specific advantages over U.S. naval forces in the Western Pacific. According to Pradun's analysis, it does not matter that China doesn't operate aircraft carrier strike groups or the most modern naval destroyers or fighter aircraft. China's inventory of many hundreds of long-range ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles will soon be in a position to overwhelm U.S. fleets that venture too close to China during a war. In addition to the threat to the Navy's surface forces, Chinese missiles are already positioned to cripple the U.S. Air Force's bases in the region, a conclusion the Congress's U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission reached in its 2010 annual report.
According to Pradun, Chinese anti-ship cruise missiles, which the PLA has fitted to nearly every boat, ship, submarine, and aircraft, out-range U.S. anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. Pradun also described an increasingly elaborate radar, sonar, and reconnaissance satellite network China has built to track U.S. naval forces in the Western Pacific. In addition, Pradun discusses why U.S. missile defense efforts are not keeping up with the numbers, speed, and accuracy of the PLA's missiles.
Pradun concludes that Pentagon planners need to redesign how U.S. forces will operate within the zone the PLA apparently intends to contest. He recommends a dramatic shift to missiles and aircraft with much longer ranges than those currently operated by the Navy and Air Force. In the scenario Pradun describes, the troubled and expensive F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program won't be of much help. What are needed instead are the Air Force's next generation long-range bomber, the Navy's carrier-based long-range drone aircraft, a new anti-ship cruise missile that at least matches what the PLA already has, and a new technique -- perhaps a ship-based laser -- to defend against saturation missile attacks.
Last week the CBO revealed why it thought the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan was underfunded. When placed next to Pradun's analysis, the CBO report hardly matters. Without a change in course, it will soon become too risky for the Navy to enter a large swath of the Western Pacific during a crisis with China. In a few years, we should expect the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan to look a lot different than today's.
The Story of an American Military Advisor and the Colombian Drug War
![](http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/journal/docs-temp/eastoftheorteguaza1.jpg)
As stated in the subtitle, East of the Orteguaza is the story of an American military advisor and the Colombian drug war. The book's title is a geographic reference to an actual place in time...a military base that was at the center of the drug war, deep inside the jungles of southern Colombia...and a place where the author lived and worked.
Tres Esquinas is the name of this military base. In Spanish it means three corners, or the junction where two rivers, the Orteguaza and the Caquetá flow together to create one main river. The Río Orteguaza is a tributary of the Río Caquetá and it runs parallel and west of the base...hence, the title, East of the Orteguaza. Orteguaza is believed to be one of many names derived from the native indigenous groups of this Amazonian region, such as the Tukano, Koreguaje, or Huitoto. Historical research reveals that in 1635, Franciscan missionaries may have been the first to Hispanicize the name Orteguaza from the name of the Oyoguaja tribe of the Tukano Family. Still another conjecture is that Orteguaza originated from the native indigenous word Ocoguaje, which literally means "people of the water."
This is a story steeped in fact and inspired by true events as experienced by the author while assigned to a counterdrug base near the Ecuadoran/Peruvian border in the drug infested Putumayo and Caquetá region of southern Colombia.
More importantly, this is the story of a quiet war; a war so quiet that it rarely catches the attention of the news media....despite the presence of hundreds of US military advisors in Colombia. It focuses on the many varied facets of the US military advisory mission in the jungles, valleys, plains, and mountainous regions of Colombia in support of the Colombian Armed Forces...and their quiet war.
About the Author: Victor M. Roselló is a retired US Army Colonel, intelligence officer, and Latin America Foreign Area Officer. During his 30 year career he served as a military advisor to the Salvadoran and Colombian Armed Forces and combat parachuted into Panama with the 82nd Airborne Division during the 1989 invasion. An Army Ranger and Master Parachutist, he graduated from the US Army Command and General Staff College, School of Advanced Military Studies, and the US Army War College. He has a Master of Arts degree in Latin American and Caribbean Area Studies from the University of Chicago.
Purchase East of the Orteguaza: The Story of an American Military Advisor and the Colombian Drug War at Amazon.
I Didn't Deserve My Combat Pay
BLUF. When I compare my first deployment to Afghanistan with my second deployment to Iraq, one thought remains lodged in my cerebellum: I didn't deserve my combat pay.
My first deployment, to eastern Afghanistan in 2007, sent me as part of the 173rd Airborne Brigade to Korengal Valley, which Vanity Fair dubbed the "valley of death." Staff Sgt. Salvatore Giunta, a soldier in my battalion, last year became the first living recipient of the Medal of Honor since Vietnam. Twenty-four of our battalion's soldiers made the ultimate sacrifice.
We slept on cots. I roomed with eight other people. In the winter, snowmelt leaked through our roof. In the summer, temperatures routinely passed 100 degrees and our AC units would crash. It took several minutes to get hot water in the shower, if it came. Food consisted of two warm trays of heated .ââ¬â°.ââ¬â°. stuff, if we didn't eat MREs. A snowstorm could knock out the satellite television feed and the Internet, as one did on Super Bowl Sunday.
Much more at The Washington Post.
An Unmanned No-Fly Zone is Possible
by Luke Tarbi
As calls for a no-fly zone over Libya increase, US defense planners cite concerns over future scale and cost as cause for trepidation. And rightly so -- most no-fly zone estimates are based on US experiences over Iraq, and show the need for over one hundred fighter jets, as well as a command and control element, an airborne refueling capability, and a means to rescue potentially downed pilots. These costs can add up; it is estimated that one year of Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over Iraq cost US taxpayers between $1.4 and $1.7 billion dollars.
However, the US experience imposing no-fly zones over Iraq throughout the 1990s may not present the most accurate benchmark in terms of future scale and cost. Advances in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology combined with innovative uses of existing Navy air defense systems could allow for the potential unmanning of a no-fly zone, lowering risks to pilots and reducing costs to taxpayers. Moreover, significant geographical differences between Iraq and Libya mean that a future no-fly zone could not only be unmanned, but also implemented with fewer military assets. While the initial destruction of the Libyan air defense network would require precision strikes against grounded aircraft and surface-to-air missile sites, a potential unmanned no-fly zone could be maintained for the duration of the Libyan conflict through a combination of UAVs circling and defending locations from above, and Aegis-capable Navy ships assuming anti-air duties along the coastline.
The first half of this concept relies on the Air Force's new MQ-9 Reaper UAV, a larger and more powerful version of the famous Predator drone. Originally designed for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Reaper is a combat proven platform that offers a potential anti-air capability (it can carry the AIM-92 Stinger missile). Powered by a 950 horsepower turboprop engine, the Reaper is slow by jet standards at 230 miles per hour, but as a result of being lightweight can boast a total range of over 3,600 miles and an endurance time of 14 hours when fully loaded (for a range reference, potential air bases on Sicily and Crete are both under 300 miles from the Libyan coast). Additionally, the Reaper's slow speed could prove invaluable when countering slower and lower-flying Libyan attack helicopters, whereas faster fighter jets may have more difficulty in targeting them.
The potential for air-to-air combat between a UAV and manned aircraft is not without precedent. In December 2002, a smaller Predator drone engaged an Iraqi MiG-25 while performing a reconnaissance mission. Though its Stinger missile missed and the Predator was shot down, it is noteworthy that the slower UAV was still able to get its shot off in time. The larger Reaper UAV can carry more Stinger missiles than the Predator, or could potentially carry a longer-range (and thus heavier) air-to-air weapon too. Additionally, because the Reaper would be circling above cities in a defensive role it would also be afforded a longer time period for target acquisition. However, while the Reaper could offer a defensive presence in the sky, it could not enforce an unmanned no-fly zone by itself.
The second half of this concept relies on the Navy's Aegis Combat System, the preeminent anti-air weapons system installed on every cruiser and destroyer in the US surface fleet. Originally conceived of during the Cold War, the use of Aegis nowadays is predominately to provide air defense for a nearby aircraft carrier by countering any hostile aircraft or inbound missiles. However, both its powerful AN/SPY-1 radar and SM-2 surface-to-air missiles have ranges of well over 100 miles, a distance that could extend an air defense shield over the majority of large cities and population centers in Libya.
When comparing no-fly zones in Iraq and Libya, the vast differences in their coastline length and coastal population density mean that the surface Navy could play a much larger role in enforcement duties. The State Department estimates that over ninety percent of the Libyan population lives in less than ten percent of its landmass; the majority of these people are clustered along the country's northern coast. The positioning of several Aegis-capable warships along the Libyan coastline could quickly extend an air defense shield over these populations. This in combination with Reaper UAVs circling overhead could create a credible deterrent threat to Libyan pilots, a safer strategy for US servicemen, and a less expensive option for Pentagon policymakers.
The advantage of an unmanned no-fly zone is that it increases safety by taking pilots out of potentially dangerous skies, and it lowers costs by reducing the role of expensive fighter jets, aircraft carriers, airborne refueling planes, and search-and-rescue helicopters. However, this concept has significant disadvantages as well. Taking pilots out of the sky also eliminates human intuition and judgment in potential air engagements. The USS Vincennes, an Aegis cruiser, once shot down an Iranian airliner its crew mistook for a fighter jet on radar, and UAV pilots are no more likely to be effective judges of hostile intent from their remote cockpits and video feeds. With the chances of a Libyan pilot defecting still as high as the chances he attacks, the concept of an unmanned no-fly zone presents as many risks as it does rewards. However, with the potential for substantial savings in terms of lives and money, it is well worth the consideration.
Luke Tarbi is currently a Masters candidate in international relations at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
17 March SWJ Roundup
Japan Renews Nuclear Efforts, U.S. Sounds Alarm - Wall Street Journal
U.S.: Radiation 'Extremely High, Crisia Worsening - New York Times
State Dept., Pentagon Offer to Evacuate -Washington Post
U.S. Alarm Over Japan Atomic Crisis - BBC News
Crisis Continues at Crippled Japanese Nuclear Power Plants - VOA
Desperate Measures at Nuclear Plant - Los Angeles Times
Fears Mount as Japan Takes Desperate Steps to Cool Reactors - Reuters
Japan Begins Air Drop on Stricken Reactor - Associated Press
Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume - New York Times
Pentagon Preparing for Nuclear Worst-case Scenario - Stars and Stripes
American Official Warns Significant Radiation Risk in Japan - VOA
More Governments Advising Citizens to Leave Tokyo - Associated Press
Rescue Teams Reach Tsunami-Stricken Town - Voice of America
Fuel Shortage Threatens to Slow Rescuers - Stars and Stripes
As Searchers Inch Along, Task Ahead Is Huge - New York Times
U.S. Troops Deliver Humanitarian Aid - Stars and Stripes
Flaws in Japan's Leadership Deepen Sense of Crisis - New York Times
Emperor Comforts Japan in 1st TV Talk - Washington Times
In Japan, No Time Yet for Grief - New York Times opinion
Afghanistan
Pressure Mounts on All Parties to Begin Talks - New York Times
Petraeus: Drawdown May Include Combat Troops - New York Times
Petraeus: First U.S. Cuts will Include Combat Forces - Associated Press
Petraeus: Afghan Transition Will Have Long-term Impact - AFPS
Afghanistan Plans Departure of Security Firms - New York Times
U.N. Chief Says Afghan Transition Faces Obstacles - Associated Press
NATO: More Than 40 Insurgents Killed - Associated Press
Petraeus Reveals Son Served in Afghanistan - Associated Press
NATO Investigating Killing of 2 Afghan Boys - Associated Press
Afghan War's Familiar Terrain - Los Angeles Times editorial
Afghanistan: The 'Great Game' of Deceit - Salem News opinion
Afghanistan, Our Longest War - Los Angeles Times opinion
Pakistan
CIA Security Officer Freed, Redress Paid - New York Times
Pakistan Releases CIA Contractor - Washington Post
Davis Freed in Pakistan Killings - Los Angeles Times
CIA Contractor Ray Davis Freed - BBC News
Slain Men's Kin, Paid $2M, 'Pardon' CIA Contractor - Washington Times
CIA Contractor Release Eases Pakistan-U.S. Tensions - Associated Press
The Blood Money Deal - Washington Post opinion
U.S. Missiles Kill Over 30 Militants in NW Pakistan - Associated Press
Suspected U.S. Drone Strike in Pakistan, 25 Killed - Reuters
Middle East / North Africa Unrest
Clinton Embraces Revolt She Once Discouraged - New York Times
Alarmed U.S. Urges Calm as Mideast Uprisings Grow - Associated Press
Libya
Rebels Claim Small Gains Against Qaddafi Forces - New York Times
On Libya's Front Line, Determination and Fear - Washington Post
Libyan Forces Pound Rebel Areas, U.N. Security Council Meets - VOA
Moammar Kadafi's Forces Bomb Benghazi - Los Angeles Times
U.S. Mulls Air Strikes as Battle for Benghazi Looms - Reuters
Libya Revolt: Gaddafi Targets Ajdabiya and Misrata - BBC News
Rebels Battle to Hold City Under Gadhafi Siege - Associated Press
Benghazi Quiet as Libyan Army Ultimatum Passes - Reuters
Libya's Opposition Tries to Define Itself to Gain Western Support - VOA
Libya Opposition a Learned Group - Washington Times
France Urges Intervention in Libya - Washington Post
Specter of Rebel Rout Helps Shift U.S. Policy - New York Times
Libya: U.S. Urges Tough United Nations Resolution - BBC News
Supporters Call for Libya No-Fly Vote - Associated Press
Tunisia
Clinton in Tunisia to Press Post-Revolt Reforms - Associated Press
Bloggers Say They'll Have Role in New Tunisia - Associated Press
Bahrain
Forces Rout Protesters From Bahrain Square - New York Times
Bahrain Crackdown on Protests in Pearl Square - BBC News
Bahrain Locks Down Kingdom as Uprising Surges - Associated Press
Bahrain Arrests Six Opposition Leaders After Crackdown - Reuters
Clinton Criticises Bahrain Over Protester Clashes - BBC News
U.S. Berates Bahrain, Gulf Allies as Tensions Spread - Reuters
U.N. Rights Boss Urges Bahrain to Rein in Forces - Reuters
High Stakes Over Bahrain - Washington Post opinion
Yemen
Clashes Reported in Western City in Yemen - New York Times
Yemeni Govt Supporters Attack Protesters - Washington Post
Fourteen Wounded in New Clashes in Yemen - Reuters
Syria
In Syria, Demonstrations Are Few and Brief - New York Times
Syria Arrests Damascus Protesters - BBC News
Rights Group Says Syrian Officers Break Up Protest - Associated Press
Amnesty Condemns Syrian Crackdown on Protest - Reuters
Iraq
U.S. Military Deaths in Iraq War at 4,439 - Associated Press
Iraq's New Generation Finds its Voice - Washington Post
Shiites in Iraq's Holy City of Karbala Rally - Associated Press
Iran
Turkey Orders Iranian Plane to Land at Diyarbakir - BBC News
Iran Recalls Ambassador From Bahrain - Associated Press
Iran Says 9 Inmates Killed During Escape Attempt - Associated Press
Israel / Palestinians
Abbas to Meet Hamas in Gaza for Palestinian Unity Talks - BBC News
Rival Leaders Agree to Hold Gaza Meeting - New York Times
NATO
NATO Task Force to Seek Innovative Efficiencies - AFPS
U.S. Department of Defense
U.S. Cyber War Defences 'Very Thin' - BBC News
Most Americans Back Women in Combat Roles - Washington Post
Officials Generally Pleased with Base Closure Process - AFPS
America's Navy and the Rise of China - Washington Post opinion
United States
Aid Targeted for Countries that 'Don't Like Us' - Washington Times
U.S. Nuclear Industry Remains Safe - New York Times
EPA Proposes New Standards for Power Plants - Washington Post
Africa
S. Sudan: Media Fights for Free Press in New Nation - Associated Press
Ivory Coast Crippled by Sanctions, Leader Holds On - New York Times
Ugandan Amisom Peacekeepers Jailed for Shooting Somalis - BBC News
Pirates Free Panamanian Tanker, Seize Bulk Carrier - Reuters
Americas
U.N. Backs Central America Security - BBC News
U.S. Unarmed Drones Track Drug Gangs in Mexico - BBC News
U.S. Spy Drones Flown Over Mexico Since 2009 - Associated Press
Cuba to Free Another Prisoner From 2003 Crackdown - Reuters
Many Anxious as Exiled Haitian Leader Plots Return - Associated Press
Haiti Cholera 'Far Worse Than Expected' - BBC News
The Haitian Lazarus - New York Times opinion
Asia Pacific
North Korea Willing to Talk About Uranium Program - Associated Press
S. Korea Rejects N. Korea's Offer to Rejoin Talks - Associated Press
New Mail Bomb Triggers Panic in Indonesian Capital - Associated Press
Europe
E.U. Police Arrest 9 Kosovo War Crimes Suspects - Associated Press
South Asia
India 'Scam' Minister Aide Dead - BBC News