| Small Wars Journal

Earlier this week, Dave posted an essay on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan from the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Written by Larry Goodson and Thomas Johnson (professors at the Army War College and Naval Postgraduate School, respectively), the essay asserts that the United States is mimicking Soviet practices in Afghanistan and will thus suffer the same disastrous fate.

Goodson and Johnson believe that a population-centric security strategy is inappropriate for largely rural Afghanistan, that the Afghan government is too unpopular to achieve legitimacy, and that it is unrealistic to build useful Afghan security forces within a relevant period of time. According to Goodson and Johnson, the U.S. will do no better than the USSR at implementing these practices. Small Wars Journal readers have already engaged in a vigorous discussion of this essay, which I recommend.

But was the Soviet strategy, which Goodson and Johnson blame the U.S. for following, really a failure? In "Follow the Bear," an essay published in February 2010 by Proceedings, four field-grade U.S. officers (three of whom served in Afghanistan) claim that the Soviets improved their tactics around 1986 and by the end were implementing many practices now found in FM 3-24. The authors assert that the Soviet end-game exceeded expectations, that the Soviets departed Afghanistan on their own terms, and that they left behind a friendly government that had the potential to last -- and did in fact outlast the Soviet Union itself (I have cited "Follow the Bear" elsewhere). They conclude that "following the Bear" is a good idea.

Here they are, one set of facts of the Soviet end-game in Afghanistan, two sets of analysts, and two different conclusions. I encourage readers to compare and contrast the two and to discuss their findings in the comments. Policymakers formulating the American end-game in Afghanistan might benefit from the discussion.

Parallels with the Past--How the Soviets Lost in Afghanistan, How the Americans are Losing

Follow the Bear

Comprehensive National Security Review

Comprehensive National Security Review Unlikely To Produce Significant Changes To The Military by Dr. Daniel Goure, Lexington Institute's Early Warning Blog.

"... the President announced that the defense cuts would be based on a comprehensive review of national security."

"It would be remarkable, actually unlikely to the point of implausibility, for the review to produce a significant change in the roles, missions, structure or posture of U.S. Armed Forces..."

Comprehensive National Security Review Unlikely To Produce Significant Changes To The Military

26 April SWJ Roundup

Wikileaks

Dossier Shows Push for More Post-9/11 Terror Attacks - New York Times

Details on Whereabouts of al-Qaeda Leaders on 9/11 - Washington Post

Confessed 9/11 Chief, Others Tell Tales of Terror - Los Angeles Times

Guantanamo Documents Revive Debate - Washington Post

Many Freed Inmates Join Terrorists, Files Say - Los Angeles Times

The Guantánamo Papers - New York Times editorial

Afghanistan

Taliban Breaks Hundreds Out of Jail - Washington Post

Taliban Breach Afghan Prison; Hundreds Free - New York Times

Hundreds Escape from Kandahar Prison - BBC News

Taliban Free Hundreds in Brazen Afghan Jailbreak - Reuters

Prison Break May Lead to Military and Political Setback - New York Times

Taliban Jailbreak Rattles Afghan South - Wall Street Journal

Prison Break Shows Serious Security Flaws - Los Angeles Times

NATO: Key Al-Qaida Figure Killed in Afghanistan - Associated Press

NATO: Senior Qaeda Leader in Afghanistan Killed - Reuters

Combined Force Captures Haqqani Leader - AFPS

Expert: No Evidence Machine Gun Killed Afghan - Associated Press

The Taliban Jailbreak and Afghanistan's Future - New York Times opinion

Pakistan

Wikileaks Docs May Inflame U.S.-Pakistan Tensions - Los Angeles Times

A Test of Women's Rights - Washington Post

NATO Supplies Resume After Rally - BBC News

Bus Bombings Kill 4 in Pakistan's Biggest City - Associated Press

Two Bombs Hit Pakistan Navy Buses in Karachi, 4 Dead - Reuters

Syria

Syria Crackdown May Signal Brutal New Phase - New York Times

Syria Escalates Deadly Crackdown - Washington Post

Syria Escalates Crackdown as Tanks Go to Restive City - New York Times

Syria Steps Up Violence - Wall Street Journal

Obama Presses Assad; Syrian Violence Rises - Washington Times

Syrian Tanks Roll Into Cities as Security Crackdown Kills At Least 18 - VOA

Syrian Army 'Attacks Protest City of Deraa' - BBC News

Rights Group: Scores Detained Across Syria - Associated Press

Residents Tell Grim Story of Assault on Syrian City - Reuters

U.S. Faces a Challenge in Trying to Punish Syria - New York Times

U.S. Prepares to Impose Sanctions on Syria - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Treads Warily in Syria, Considers Sanctions - Associated Press

U.S. Mulling Sanctions on Syrian Officials - Reuters

U.S. Orders Some Embassy Staff to Leave Syria - Reuters

Campaign to Bar Syria From U.N. Human Rights Body - Associated Press

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Fears of a Military Stalemate in Libya Grow - USA Today

NATO Strikes Qaddafi Compound - New York Times

Libya Accuses NATO of Trying to Assassinate Gaddafi - Washington Post

Libya Says Airstrikes Targeting Compound as Assassination Attempt - VOA

NATO Strike on Gadhafi HQ Raises Pressure on Him - Associated Press

Shells Rain on Misurata Neighborhood - Los Angeles Times

Bodies Scattered in Misrata Streets After Battle - Reuters

Libyan Mountain Refugees Tell of Fearsome Assault - Reuters

Italy 'to Join Attacks in Libya' - BBC News

Italy Says Air Force Can Bomb Libya Military Targets - Reuters

Russia Warns Over New U.N. Resolution on Libya - Associated Press

Libya Conflict Has Displaced 550,000 People - Voice of America

The U.S. Must Finish the Job - New York Times opinion

Yemen

Yemen's Opposition Accepts Deal for Transfer of Power - New York Times

Yemen Protesters Accept Deal - Wall Street Journal

Yemen's Opposition Backs GCC Plan - BBC News

Egypt

Poll: Egyptians Skeptical About U.S. - Washington Post

Poll Finds Egyptians Full of Hope About the Future - New York Times

Help for Egypt - Washington Post editorial

Iraq

Reopening of Blackwater Case Confuses Iraqi Victims - New York Times

Ministry: More than 14,000 Iraqis Missing - Agence France-Presse

Iran

Iran Discovers New Cyberattack - New York Times

Iran 'Uncovers Stars Espionage Virus' - BBC News

Bahrain

Bahrain Expels Iranian Diplomat as Ties Worsen - Associated Press

Bahrain Expels Iran Diplomat, Iran Warns of Response - Reuters

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

The Arab Gyre - New York Times opinion

U.S. Department of Defense

Military Sees High Recruiting, Retention - AFPS

Network Would Link Defense Functions, People - AFPS

Africa

After Hundreds Die, Nigeria Prepares for Last Vote - Associated Press

Deadly Bombings in North Nigeria - BBC News

Instability Is Worsening in Southern Sudan - New York Times

Chad Votes as Opposition Boycotts - BBC News

Peace Threatened by Feuding Ivory Coast Warlords - Associated Press

Mauritania Protesters Tear-gassed - BBC News

Americas

U.S. Extends Mexico Travel Warning Over Drug Mayhem - Reuters

Police Rescues 51 Migrants in Mexican Border City - Associated Press

Chavez Aids in Capture of Colombian Rebel Leader - Los Angeles Times

Alleged FARC Rebel Deported by Venezuela - Associated Press

Venezuela: Hugo Chavez Orders Big Minimum Wage Hike - Reuters

Ex-Brazilian Cop Sentenced in Muslim Attire Case - Associated Press

Haiti Election Results Postponed - BBC News

Haiti Delays Certification of 19 Legislative Races - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

China and U.S. Plan Economic Talks Amid Rising Tensions - BBC News

Australia's Gillard Woos China, Presses on Human Rights - Reuters

China Says Aid to Africa Not Aimed at Resources - Associated Press

In Show of Openness, China Prints Jet Photos - New York Times

Jimmy Carter and Other Ex- Leaders to Travel to N. Korea - New York Times

Carter Hopes to Break Stalemate Between Koreas - Stars and Stripes

Carter Arrives in North Korea on Peace-Building Mission - Reuters

Fresh Thai-Cambodia Clashes Erupt - BBC News

Clashes Along Thai-Cambodia Border Spread East - Associated Press

Thai-Cambodia Troops Exchange Fire Near Ancient Temple - Reuters

Philippine Ex-President Faces Plunder Case - Associated Press

Europe

France and Italy Meet on Migrants - BBC News

South Asia

Head of India's Commonwealth Games Organizing Committee Arrested - VOA

India Arrests Former Chief of Commonwealth Games - New York Times

Indian Politicians Pay Last Respects to Hindu Guru - Associated Press

U.N.: Sri Lanka 'Killed Civilians' - BBC News

U.N. Chief Says Can't Order Probe Into Sri Lanka War - Reuters

Read more about 26 April SWJ Roundup

Time for a Grand Strategy Board?

Time for a Grand Strategy Board? By Mark Safranski at Zenpundit.

"It would be a useful corrective for the better conception and execution of US policy, for the President and the Congress to create a special board for grand strategy that could give presidents and key officials frank assessments and confidential guidance to help weave their policy ideas into a durable and overarching national strategy. One that might last beyond a few days' headlines in The New York Times."

Time for a Grand Strategy Board?

And we endorse....

... the USNI Blog for Best of Navy and Wings over Iraq for Best of Army at the 2011 Milbloggie Awards. Vote here, now.

The Sarposa Prison Break (2008)

The Sarposa Prison Break (Kandahar, Afghanistan, 2008) by Captain Nils N. French, Canadian Army, Canadian Army Journal, Summer 2008.

"Prison breaks have been used as an insurgent tactic on other occasions. Examples from the last few years include the release of 23 prisoners from a jail in Yemen in February of 2006, 33 prisoners from a prison in Muqdadiyah, Iraq in March of 2006, 49 prisoners from a prison in Cotabato, Philippines in February of 2007, and 300 freed from a facility in Chattisgarh, India in December, 2007."

The Sarposa Prison Break (Kandahar, Afghanistan, 2008)

Read more about The Sarposa Prison Break (2008)