| Small Wars Journal

Today, radical religious ideologies, new technologies and cheap, powerful weapons have catapulted the world into “a period of persistent conflict,” according to the Pentagon’s last major assessment of global security. “No one should harbor the illusion that the developed world can win this conflict in the near future,” the document concludes.

Read more about An Era of "Endless War"

Grab Their Belts To Fight Them

Book by Warren Wilkins.

Published by Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Maryland. 312 pages, 2011.

Warren Wilkins has written a valuable book on the early phases of the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War. The Vietnamese adage of “Grab Their Belts to Fight Them!” was an attempt to neutralize massive American firepower by hugging the enemy, a tactic used by the Soviets fighting the Germans in World War II. Wilkins makes a well-researched argument that redefines and cuts through the popular mythology of the Viet Cong being a insurgency of fighters in black pajamas. Wilkins, a Fellow at the Center for Threat Analysis, demonstrates that between 1965 and 1966, the Viet Cong conducted large scale complex operations at the regimental level, forcing General William Westmoreland to fight a large footprint, expensive big unit war. The North Vietnamese conducted massive combined arms ground tactics using infantry, artillery, and even armor, a tactic useful against the French, but tactically disastrous when faced with America’s combined air, sea, and ground arms. Wilkins dissects several key battles between Viet Cong and U.S. combat forces that resulted in deep strategic soul searching in Hanoi and Washington.

In Grab Their Belts to Fight Them, readers will get inside the minds of North Vietnamese divisional commanders like General Tran Van Tra, and the better known General Vo Nugyen Giap, the architect of the 1954 Battle of Diem Bien Phu against the French. After the Battle of Ia Drang in 1966, Giap’s influence waned as senior commanders considered potential strategies against the United States. Their discussions centered on whether to shift the war to an insurgency or continue big unit operations despite the effectiveness of U.S. air and helicopter-borne assets that decimated these formations. Readers will gain an appreciation of the capability and discipline of a Viet Cong Army that was well trained, well-equipped, and whose commanders were concerned about mounting casualties. In the west we think of a logistical tail, in which supply units support front-line combat units, the North Vietnamese thought of the logistical nose, meaning they prepped the battlefield logistically before deploying combat units. The North Vietnamese conducted massive operations which were carefully scripted and rehearsed. Improvisation in large unit warfare was not a strong trait of either the Viet Cong or North Vietnamese Army and would be a problem for many former Soviet indoctrinated armies.

Wilkins has done us a service with this new book. While my specialization is al-Qaida, it is important to appreciate that the late al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader Abdul-Aziz al-Muqrin appreciated the Vietnamese insurgency tactics, which themselves built upon Mao Tse Tung’s insurgency principles. Wilkins book helps me to better understand the importance of preventing al-Qaida from gaining the capacity to transition to big-unit wars that the Viet Cong undertook between 1965 to 1966, while simultaneously raising the issues of legitimacy and strategic communications in insurgencies. However, winning an insurgency is not as simple as insurgents gaining the capacity to fight large unit wars or COIN commanders defeating insurgents in big unit wars as the Vietnam War ultimately showed. The book also shows the power of managing the narrative, with Hanoi painting a picture of being —to sacrifice to the last person, and that their efforts were mainly guerilla based, versus the reality that they were concerned with casualties, and did conduct large scale coordinated operations, being well equipped and trained. Wilkins book helps keep these realities in focus.

The author wishes to thank his ICAF colleague CAPT Chan Swallow, USN for his edits and for discussing this book.

4 September SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Libya

Libya’s Interim Leaders Aim to Harness Rebel Fighters - NYT

Rebels Eye Last Gaddafi Strongholds - WP

Libyan Rebels Poised to Assault Gadhafi Stronghold - AP

Libyans Say Closing In on Gaddafi Bastions - Reuters

Libya's Provisional Leaders Vow No Revenge - VOA

Reining in Libyan Rebel Commanders - WP

Tripoli Commander Denies Al Qaeda Links - Reuters

Spy Files in Libya Show Gadhafi Ties to CIA, MI-6, Others - VOA

CIA Once Handed Key Libya Rebel Figure to Kadafi - LAT

Libya Spy Papers 'Show CIA Links' - BBC

Documents Show Ties Between Libyan Spy Head, CIA - AP

CIA, MI6 Helped Gaddafi on Dissidents - Reuters

Analysts Debate Success of NATO Mission in Libya - VOA

China Blocking Release of Libya's Frozen Assets - Reuters

Cuba Withdraws Ambassador From Libya - AP

Libyan Prisoner Lives to Tell His Story - NYT opinion

Libya’s Dark Lesson for NATO - NYT opinion

Syria

Syria Continues Crackdown Against Protesters - VOA

2 Killed in New Syrian Raid on Village - AP

EU Targets Syrian Oil Firms, Says May Get Tougher - Reuters

Russia Attacks EU Syria Sanctions - BBC

Syrian Enclave in DC Opposes Assad - WP

Afghanistan

Troops Kill Man Linked to Al Qaeda and Attacks - NYT

NATO Kills Ex-Gitmo Detainee in Afghanistan - AP

More Afghan Soldiers Deserting Army - WP

New Afghan Lawmakers Sworn In - WP

Pakistan

Pakistan Kidnap 'to Punish Tribe' - BBC

Israel / Palestinians

US Appeals to Palestinians to Stall UN Vote on Statehood - NYT

US Tries to Stall Palestinian Statehood Bid - Reuters

Israel Expresses Regret After Turkey Expels Ambassador - VOA

Turkey to Take Israel to UN Court - BBC

Turkey Says It Will Challenge Gaza Blockade - AP

Israelis Hold Huge Rallies for ‘Social Justice’ - VOA

Protest in Israel Peaks With 400,000 in City Streets - NYT

Israelis Resume Economic Protests - WP

Biggest Rally in Israel's History Presses PM - Reuters

Yemen

Amid Turmoil, Yemeni Tribal Leaders Show Clout - WP

Yemen: Car Bomb Kills 3 Policemen in Aden - AP

Middle East / North Africa

Iranian Sniper Kills Shepherd in Northern Iraq - AP

Iran Says Kills 30 Kurd Rebels in New Border Push - Reuters

Officials: Egyptian Military Closing Gaza Tunnels - AP

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

US Department of Defense

Soldier, Thinker, Hunter, Spy: Drawing a Bead on Al Qaeda - NYT

United States

Obama’s Strategy Confounds Allies and Foes - WP

US Guards Against Terrorist Attacks Before 9-11 Anniversary - VOA

Thrill-Seeking Injured Veterans Take Wing - NYT

Post 9/11: What Remains to Be Done - NYT editorial

A Successful Post-Bush Foreign Policy - WP opinion

World

35,000 Worldwide Convicted for Terror - AP

Africa

After 9/11, African Anti-Terror Laws Grew, Abused - AP

Thousands Flee Unrest in Sudan's Blue Nile State - VOA

Renewed Fighting, Refugees in South of Sudan - Reuters

UNHCR Calls for Immediate Stop to Fighting in Blue Nile State - VOA

Amid Fighting, South Sudan Plans New Capital - NYT

Peacekeepers in Somalia Fire on Car, Leaving Journalist Dead - NYT

At Least 27 Somalis Killed in Puntland Fighting - Reuters

Nigerian President Vows No Effort Spared Against Terrorism - VOA

Nigeria Official: 3 Killed in Clash in Restive NE - AP

Zimbabwe's Mugabe Calls for Elections in 2012 - Reuters

Kenya Residents Feel Threatened by Famine Refugees - AP

Several Injured, 24 Arrested in Angola Rally - Reuters

Americas

Mexico Reality TV Show Seeks to Spur Social Action -AP

Chile: All 21 Aboard Crashed Military Plane Died - AP

Chile: Pinera, Students Decide to Keep Talking - AP

Panama Lawmakers Push Vote Run-Off Bill Forward - Reuters

Cuban Defense Minister Dies - VOA

Asia Pacific

Are We Finished in the Philippines? - S&S

Japan’s Yoshihiko Noda Names Cabinet - WP

Japan is Once Again Open for Business - WP

US Flood Aid Shipment Arrives in North Korea - AP

Talk of Succession Off Limits in Secretive N. Korea - Reuters

Europe

Experts: Europe Needs More Perfect Union - AP

Greek PM Rules Out Snap Polls, Protesters Are Back - Reuters

Read more about 4 September SWJ Roundup

Charlie Wilson’s War: Michael Vickers Update

Soldier, Thinker, Hunter, Spy: Drawing a Bead on Al Qaeda by Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times. BLUF:

Every day, Michael G. Vickers gets an update on how many in Al Qaeda’s senior leadership the United States has removed from the battlefield, and lately there has been much to report. Al Qaeda’s No. 2 died in a C.I.A. drone strike late last month, another senior commander was taken out in June, and the Navy Seals made history when they dispatched Osama bin Laden in May.

“I just want to kill those guys,” Mr. Vickers likes to say in meetings at the Pentagon, with a grin…

Read more about Charlie Wilson’s War: Michael Vickers Update

PI COIN / FID Fight Over?

Are We Finished in the Philippines? - By Travis Tritten, Stars and Stripes. BLUF:

Fight against terrorism threat in country deemed a success, but the way out is unclear…

3 September SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Libya

With Libya's NTC in Place, Little Sign of Leading - WSJ

Libya NTC Seeks Order in Tripoli - BBC

Libya Turns From Africa to the West - VOA

Libyan Rebels Pushing Toward Gadhafi Hometown - AP

Libyans Focus on Reconciliation and Rebuilding - Reuters

Foreign Oil Companies Resume Operations in Libya - VOA

Ex-Jihadist at Heart of Libya's Revolution - CNN

Libya Rebel Commander Plays Down Islamist Past - AP

Files Note Close CIA Ties to Qaddafi Spy Unit - NYT

CIA Worked Closely With Libyan Intelligence, Tripoli Files Show - FOX

Analysis: What Should Justice for Gaddafi Look Like? - Reuters

Militias: Ensuring Libya’s Democratic Future - WT opinion

Meet Libya's Islamist Militiamen - TT opinion

Syria

At Least 13 Killed at Syria Protests - VOA

EU Bans Syrian Oil as Syrians Continue Protests - NYT

EU Bans Syrian Oil as More Protesters Die - WP

EU Agrees to Syrian Oil Import Ban - BBC

EU Bans Imports of Syrian Oil Over Crackdown - AP

Russia Attacks EU Syria Sanctions - BBC

Wounded Syrian Protesters Being Abused in Hospitals - LAT

Afghanistan

NATO Kills Afghan Militant Linked to Al-Qaida - AP

NATO Races to Secure Violent, Porous Af-Pk Border - Reuters

ISAF Operations Roundup - AFPS

Pakistan

Pakistani Cricket Hero Learns Politics Game - WP

Militants 'Kidnap Pakistani Boys’, Crossed into Afghanistan - BBC

Pakistani Taliban Claim Kidnapping Up to 25 Boys - Reuters

Iraq

Iraq to Reopen Probe of US 2006 Ishaqi Raid - WP

Cable Implicates Americans in Deaths of Iraqi Civilians - NYT

Leaked UN Letter May be Trouble for US, Iraq Talks - AP

Suicide Bombs in Iraq Have Killed 12,000 - NYT

Iran

UN Voices New Concerns Iran's Nuclear Program - VOA

Iran: New Equipment to Speed Production of Nuclear Fuel - NYT

UN Raises New Iran Nuclear Fears - BBC

Iran Speeding Up Nuke Program, Inspectors Say - WP

UN: Credible Evidence Iran Working on Nuke Weapons - AP

Iran Moves to Shelter Its Nuclear Fuel Program - NYT

Turkey to Install US-Designed Radar - NYT

Turkey Agrees to Turn Missile Defense Radar on Iran - S&S

Who is Watching Iran? - WP opinion

Israel / Turkey

Turkey Expels Israel's Ambassador, Cuts Military Ties - VOA

Turkey Expels Israeli Ambassador - BBC

Turkey Expels Israeli Ambassador Over Flotilla Raid - NYT

Israel Refuses to Apologize for Gaza Flotilla Raid - TT

Turkey Downgrades Ties With Israel - WP

Turkey Expels Israel Ambassador Over Flotilla Raid - AP

UN Chief Urges Turkey and Israel to Mend Relations - AP

Turkey, Israel and the Flotilla - NYT editorial

Yemen

Yemen Opposition Considers Using Military to Oust Saleh - CNN

Protesters in Yemen Vow to Stay on Streets - NYT

Yemen: 30 Al-Qaida Suspects Die in US Airstrikes - AP

Middle East / North Africa

Deadly Clashes in Tunisian Town - BBC

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - AP

WikiLeaks

Anger at Wikileaks Mass Release - BBC

Already Leaking, WL Releases All US Cables Unredacted - CSM

US Department of Defense

US Secret Army Gains Strength - WP

Where's Panetta? Secretary's Weekends Questioned - S&S

Pentagon PR Shop Girds for Budget Fight - WP

Army May Cut 10 Brigade Combat Teams - AT

Leaders Praise General Sharp at Retirement Ceremony - AFPS

Defense Officials Watchful as 9/11 Anniversary Approaches - AFPS

United States

Security for Sept. 11 Heightened - WP

Travel Alert Issued Ahead of Sept. 11 - AP

'Lone Wolf' Terror Seen as Biggest Threat - AP

US Arrests Pakistani on Terror Support Charges - VOA

ATF Gun Sting: Three Officials Were Informed of Gun Inquiry - NYT

The Forgotten 9/11 Attack - WP opinion

Politics Without Purpose - WP opinion

Five Myths About 9/11 - WP opinion

At What Price Victory? - WP opinion

Don’t Fear Islamic Law in America - NYT opinion

Obama’s Wrong Move on Immigration - WP opinion

United Nations

French Diplomat Is New UN Peacekeeping Chief - AP

Africa

UN to Announce Somalia Famine Spreading - VOA

Malaysian TV Cameraman Shot Dead in Somali Capital - Reuters

Clashes Erupt in Key Border State in Sudan - VOA

Sudan Attacks Disputed Border State - NYT

Sudan Declares Blue Nile Emergency - BBC

Sudan Clashes Force 3000 to Flee Blue Nile State - Bloomberg

Nigeria: 21 Killed in Christian-Muslim Clashes - NYT

UN Concerned About Ivory Coast Abuse Allegations - AP

While Some Kenyans Starve, Others Have Bumper Crop - AP

S. Africa: Malema Loses Appeal Against ANC Charges - TT

Americas

Mexico: Calderon Gives State of Union Address - WP

President Says Mexico Will Have Clean Cops - AP

Mexico's Calderon Defends War on Drug Cartels - Reuters

Mexico: 16 Cops, 15 Others Helped Zetas Drug Gang - AP

36 Colombia Drug-Traffickers Seized - BBC

Colombia, US Cocaine Air Bridge Sweep Nets 30 Arrests - AP

Colombian Police Seize £40m of Cocaine in Two Days - TT

Venezuela's Chavez Finishes 3rd Round of Chemo - AP

China Tries to Win Over Brazilians - WP

Senior Defense Leaders Meet in Chile - AFPS

Chilean Police Chief Quits Post - BBC

Cuba: Fidel Castro Silence Sparks Speculation on Health - AP

American Jailed in Cuba: I Was 'Trusting Fool' - AP

Asia Pacific

More Chinese Dissidents Appear to Disappear - NYT

India Says Ship Near Vietnam Warned by China - AP

Sharp Cites Strength of US-South Korea Alliance - AFPS

UN: N. Korea Nuke Equipment from Black Market - AP

IAEA: N. Korea Atom Drive May Rely on Smugglers - Reuters

US Sends Aid to Flood-Stricken North Korea - AP

N. Korea Readies for Harvest as Food Aid Flows In - Reuters

S. Korean Police Detain Island Activists Opposed to Base - NYT

S. Korea Protest at Jeju Navy Base - BBC

Japan Leader to Keep Nuclear Phase-Out - NYT

Maoists Want Manila to Free More Rebels Before Talks Resume - Reuters

Indonesia Sect Fears More Attacks - LAT

Europe

Europe Alarmed as Italy’s Austerity Plans Unravel - NYT

Berlusconi: Italy Makes Me Sick - TT

French Intelligence Chief ‘Under Pressure to Resign’ - TT

Senior Kosovo Leader to Be Tried for War Crimes - AP

Patience Risks Renewed Violence in Georgia - WT opinion

South Asia

Sri Lanka Civil War Reunion Efforts Boosted - BBC

Read more about 3 September SWJ Roundup

This Week at War: The Pentagon's China Syndrome

My column at Foreign Policy discusses how the Pentagon's report on China's military power could start a budget war inside the Pentagon. I also discuss the hard choices ahead for U.S. naval aviation.

The Pentagon's new China report and the coming budget war

Last week, the Pentagon released its annual report on China's military power. Although required by Congress, many administration officials no doubt view the report as an annoyance and needlessly provocative. Yet few can claim that the Pentagon, assisted by the interagency process, didn't take the project seriously. This year's edition was as detailed and comprehensive as any yet published. Even more notable, Barack Obama's administration did not hesitate to increase the U.S. government's level of alarm over Chinese military modernization. As he briefed the Pentagon press corps on the report, Michael Schiffer, deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia, asserted that China's military investments are "potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation, and may contribute to regional tensions and anxieties."

Equally alarming, the report discussed growing debates among China's policymakers about whether China should assume a more assertive "great power" status, backed by its expanding military power. The report noted that until recently, China's security strategy followed former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping's advice to maintain a low profile and focus on internal development. Today, China's growing nationalism, renewed attention to regional disputes, and concerns about access to global markets and raw materials over sea lines of communications have opened internal debates about whether China now needs to discard Deng's long-standing advice.

The U.S. government has hoped to influence these debates inside China. The Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) in 2006 explicitly stated an intention to "shape the choices of countries at strategic crossroads." The 2010 QDR restated a commitment to enhancing deterrence, notably for "large-scale conflicts in environments where anti-access weaponry and tactics are used." These missions were clearly aimed at China, with a goal of dissuading Beijing from challenging the U.S. strategic position in the Western Pacific.

The report noted that between 2000 and 2010, the Chinese government increased military spending at a 12.1 percent annual rate, accounting for inflation. Recently, military programs have included progress on China's first aircraft carrier, first stealth fighter, new submarines, more amphibious shipping, new surface-to-air missiles systems, and further additions to its substantial inventories of land-attack ballistic and cruise missiles. The report concludes that China is preparing to extend the reach of its naval and air power beyond its regional waters and into the Indian Ocean and the central Pacific area.

The 2006 and 2010 QDRs aimed to influence China's debate about its national security strategy. That debate remains unsettled. But the continued rapid expansion of China's military power reveals that Chinese leaders believe such an investment will eventually provide useful leverage. U.S. military power in the Western Pacific is not "shaping the choices" as it hoped to in 2006. China's leaders have not concluded that it is futile to challenge the U.S. military position in the region as the QDR reports hoped would be the case. This increases the odds of a clash over an area that both China and the United States and its allies in the region regard as economically and politically vital.

To persuade China that challenging the status quo is a waste of its resources, the United States needs to permanently increase its naval and air power in the region, while also reassuring China that the status quo is no threat to its interests. But with Pentagon spending facing a 5 to 10 percent cut over the next decade, something else is going to have to pay for such an expensive expansion in naval and air power. That something is the U.S. Army, which may be making plans to cut 10 or even 15 of its 45 active-duty brigade combat teams.

The Army, Navy, and Air Force have maintained a decades-long truce over money by agreeing to a roughly constant distribution of the Pentagon's pie. The rise of China's military and the demands that will place on naval and air power during a time of shrinking budgets is about to void that interservice treaty. This year's report on China's military power may spark a long-simmering budget war inside the Pentagon.

Naval aviation starts planning for when the money runs out

The U.S. Army is not alone in planning for the looming cash crunch. This week, Robert Work, the undersecretary of the Navy, directed the Navy and Marine Corps to draw up three plans to save $5 billion, $7.5 billion, and $10 billion over the next five years from their tactical aviation forces. Work's missile was aimed at the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, which includes a short-takeoff, vertical-landing "B" model designed for the Marine Corps and the aircraft carrier-based "C" model for both the Navy and Marines. Work directed the services to consider reducing the total purchases of both aircraft or canceling one of these models completely.

To make up for the shortfall of stealthy F-35s the Navy and Marine Corps have been expecting, the services would instead purchase more of the non-stealthy and much less expensive Boeing F-18 E/F aircraft, which has been in production for many years. Work also suggested using money freed up from canceled F-35s to accelerate development of long-range, carrier-based, unmanned combat aircraft, a technology that leaps over the F-35.

The Marine Corps's F-35B is the most technically complicated of the JSF variants, and this January its serious development problems forced then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates to put the plane on two-year probation pending cancellation. But the entire JSF program (including the "A" model designed for the Air Force) has been troubled, with unexpectedly complicated software among the many causes of delays and cost overruns. In a marketing battle between two giant Pentagon contractors, Boeing has presented plans to further upgrade its F-18 design to close the gap between the performance of this legacy aircraft and the F-35.

For the Navy and its big aircraft carriers, the stealthy F-35C will give it much better ability to penetrate and defeat sophisticated adversary air-defense systems in the dangerous opening days of a war, compared to the non-stealthy F-18. Once enemy air defenses have been destroyed, F-18s and other non-stealthy aircraft would presumably operate on more equal terms with stealthy aircraft.

But as we saw in March at the start of the air campaign in Libya, the Navy also has the option to use cruise missiles to take down an integrated air-defense system. In the first few days of that conflict, the Navy fired over 200 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles from submarines and surface ships at Libya's air defenses and cleared the way for non-stealthy NATO aircraft to freely operate over the country.

Canceling the Marine Corps' short-takeoff, vertical-landing F-35B would seem to put a troubled airplane out of its misery. But unlike with the F-35C, the Marine Corps can base the F-35B on its 10 large-deck amphibious assault ships, doubling the number of aircraft carriers available for less demanding contingencies. Canceling the F-35B would mean forgoing this flexibility in the future.

The winding-down of the large ground campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, combined with the rising naval and air challenge from China, should rationally result in a reallocation of defense resources from ground combat power toward naval and air power. But should this reallocation occur, it should not spare the Navy from making some long-needed reforms to its own plans. Work's request to fashion alternative plans for naval aviation is an opportunity to make some smart trades that will preserve flexibility and options while also accelerating the development of new technology that stands a better chance of success against future adversaries. It shouldn't take a budget crisis for that type of reform to happen.

‘Top Secret America’

‘Top Secret America’: A Look at the Military’s Joint Special Operations Command by Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, Washington Post. BLUF:

This article, adapted from a chapter of the newly released “Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State,” by Washington Post reporters Dana Priest and William M. Arkin, chronicles JSOC’s spectacular rise, much of which has not been publicly disclosed before. Two presidents and three secretaries of defense routinely have asked JSOC to mount intelligence-gathering missions and lethal raids, mostly in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also in countries with which the United States was not at war, including Yemen, Pakistan, Somalia, the Philippines, Nigeria and Syria.