| Small Wars Journal

James Reed's short article posted today touches on Clausewitz's still relevant conceptions of fog and friction and their impact on the conduct of warfare. I am posting this article as much for its content as for the prospect of debate in the comments section over the U.S. military's preparedness to deal with fog and friction on today's battlefield. While some suggest that modern technology offers the promise of information dominance, I think most readers will find that both information overload and information starvation can lead to fog, friction, and paralysis. How do we train and educate leaders to overcome the paralysis caused by the combination of an expectation of information dominance and the choking influence of risk-averse climates? In an environment of data overload, how do we educate commanders to step back from the numbers and matrices and see the whole picture and the details that can only be sensed, not quantified? In an operating environment where adversaries may be able to jam or otherwise compromise our communications and information systems, how do we ensure that our troops and leaders can continue the fight "unplugged" as we become more and more reliant on our technological advantages? These are questions I hope you are thinking about and I look forward to your comments.

23 January SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

US Envoy: Taliban Must Renounce Terrorism to Participate in Talks - VOA

Talks With Taliban a Long Way Off, American Envoy Says - NYT

US Envoy, Afghan President Meet for 2nd Day to Discuss Peace - S&S

US Talks to Afghan Insurgent Group - AP

Former Insurgents Act as Mediators - WP

Pakistan

Pakistan Court Widens Role, Stirring Fears for Stability - NYT

Force Behind Pakistan’s ‘Memogate’ - WP opinion

Syria

Arab League Floats Ambitious New Peace Plan for Syria - NYT

Arab League Calls on Syria’s Assad to Step Down - WP

Arab League Calls for Syrian President to Hand Off Power - LAT

Saudi Arabia Withdraws Observers From Arab League's Mission - VOA

Syrian Observer Mission in Turmoil as Saudi Arabia Pulls Out - LAT

Arab League in Syria Reform Plea - BBC

Arab League Extends Syria Mission 1 More Month - AP

Arab League Proposes New Plan for Syrian Transition - Reuters

2 US Senators Seek Sanctions on Syria - AP

Colleagues Blame Syria for French Reporter's Death - AP

Iraq

Rising Strife Threatens Tenuous Iraqi Stability - NYT

New Human Rights Report Details Crackdowns in Iraq - WP

Yemen

Yemen: Saleh Leaves Sana'a to Seek Treatment in US - VOA

Yemen Leader Leaves for Medical Care in New York - NYT

Veteran President 'Leaves Yemen' - BBC

Yemen: Saleh Heads to US for Treatment - WP

Yemen's President Leaves for US, Hands Over Power - AP

Egypt

Egypt: Signs of Accord Between Military Council and Islamists - NYT

Egypt Islamists on Eve of Power Ease Talk of Islam - AP

Egypt's Islamist-Led Parliament to Hold First Session - Reuters

Egypt: Mubarak Attorney Says Trial is Invalid - WP

Libya

Libya's No. 2 Leader Resigns After Benghazi Anti-Government Riot - VOA

Libya Protests Spur Shake-Up in Interim Government - NYT

Libya Ruling Council Deputy Quits - BBC

Libya Suspends Transitional Government Members - AP

Enraged Benghazi Residents Feel Ignored, Forgotten - Reuters

Middle East / North Africa

HRW Urges Support for Arab Democracies - VOA

West Urged to Accept Rising Islamist Political Power in Arab World - LAT

Human Rights Watch Calls on West to End 'Arab Exception' - AP

Iran's Softer Gulf Words Don't Mean Nuclear Shift - Reuters

US Aircraft Carrier Sails Through Strategic Strait of Hormuz - LAT

US Aircraft Carrier Enters Gulf Without Incident - Reuters

Israeli Leader Condemns Palestinian Muslim Cleric - AP

Mideast Youths to Hold Facebook Peace Conference - AP

Bomb-Bomb-Bomb, Bomb-Bomb-Iran? - NYT opinion

US Department of Defense

US to Keep 11 Aircraft Carriers to Show Sea Power - AP

Panetta Touts Carrier’s Agility in Visit to USS Enterprise - AFPS

No Simple Explanation in AF Academy Sex Crime Data - S&S

Africa

Boko Haram's Rise in Nigeria Sparks Civil War Fears - VOA

Nigeria Bombs Toll 'Sure to Rise' - BBC

Nigerian President Visits Kano, Site of Deadly Attacks - VOA

Death Toll in Nigeria Attack Rises, Stuns Leader - AP

Kenya Awaits ICC Decision on Prosecutions for 6 - NYT

ICC to Decide Whether to Try Six Kenyan Suspects - Reuters

US Drone Strike Kills Foreign Militant Commander Fighting Somalia - NYT

Americas

13 Killed, 8 at Funeral, in Violent Mexico State - AP

Brazil Police Storm Landless Settlement Near Sao Paulo - BBC

Cuba's Ladies in White Call Dissident Death 'Murder' - Reuters

Asia Pacific

Some Chinese Aggrieved Find Inspiration in Rebel Village - Reuters

Professor Fuels Growing Debate Over Identity in Hong Kong - WP

Military: Filipino Rebels Kill 100 Troops in 2011 - AP

US Urges Burma to Ensure Free By-Elections - VOA

Europe

Prophetic Russia Novelist Voinovich Speaks of Putin Era's End - LAT

Croatians Vote to Join European Union - VOA

Croatia Votes 2 to 1 to Join European Union - NYT

Croatia Voters Back EU Membership - BBC

Croatians Vote to Join European Union - WP

France: Hollande, Challenging Sarkozy, Calls for Change - NYT

Conservative Wins Finland Election, Runoff Needed - AP

French Lawmakers to Vote on Bill Penalizing Genocide Denial - NYT

Turkey, the New Normal - WP opinion

South Asia

Sri Lanka 'Expels Muslim Clerics' - BBC

Read more about 23 January SWJ Roundup

Minor Tweaks to Editorial Policy

In an attempt to better set our authors up for success and to maximize the benefit our busy readers receive from our articles, we have made some minor tweaks to the editorial policy for journal articles. These guidelines (not necessarily rules) are not intended to hamstring our authors, but rather to help them hone their arguments and hold their readers' attention from start to finish. The full editorial policy, largely unchanged, can be found at this page. The new guidelines are found below.

"In order to better serve our readers (and help you get your message to them), we are instituting the following guidelines on article length. While we do not have the page space problem of a print format, your readers do have a time problem when it comes to digesting all of the information available to them, not to mention the tyranny of their daily jobs. If you want to be read, you have to be concise, unless your name is Kissinger. We accept works in three general length categories. These categories do not preclude us from publishing works that merit special consideration, but do not expect us to publish a 50 page opinion piece, again unless your name is Kissinger. Please note that anything longer than a 750-1000 word op-ed requires a 200-word abstract. For the longer formats, all quotations and references should be fully cited. You may use whatever format your field accepts, but please ensure that the citations are complete (i.e., full names, titles, publishers, dates, journal volumes and numbers, web address if online resource, and page numbers), allowing readers to find the works you reference.

Op-ed pieces are 750-1000 words in length and advance an opinion or thesis on a current topic in a very tightly argued format. While your opinion should be based on facts and figures, the length here does not permit elaboration of detailed support. These pieces should not solely be a rant, but should offer some form of policy prescription. That is, if you are going to criticize, offer a solution or a way toward one.
Essays are approximately 2,500 words in length and provide more room for elaboration of concepts and provision of support. These pieces should form the bulk of what SWJ publishes. A 200-word abstract that states your thesis or argument must accompany your submission, this both assists in the editorial process and allows you to essentially advocate your argument in the hope that busy readers will invest their time in reading more.
Papers are in the range of 6,000 words in length. Papers of this length will not be read by many readers unless the argument is compelling and the support and data given in the paper is unique. Original primary source research, first-hand accounts of value to our readership, or truly unique and valuable arguments that require this amount of space for elaboration will be considered for publication. If you do not think your paper meets these criteria, we highly suggest you get out the red pen and cut your paper back to a length that will warrant the time of a very busy reader. A 200-word abstract that states your thesis or argument must accompany your submission, this both assists in the editorial process and allows you to essentially advocate your argument in the hope that busy readers will invest their time in reading more."

SWJ Editor

In my first post here, I would like to thank Dave Dillege and Bill Nagle for taking me on as editor of the Journal and for helping to start getting me snapped in to my new duties. In the next week, I will be working through the pending submissions and figuring out the website, so bear with me as I get up to speed. I hope to carry on the great work that Mike Few did during his tenure as editor, getting relevant and timely content to you, the reader. More to follow this week as I get to work.

22 January SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Afghanistan's Karzai Pushes Ahead With Peace Talks - VOA

Karzai Honors Slain Officials in Speech - NYT

Karzai Says He's Met With Afghan Insurgent Faction - AP

French Defense Minister Visits Afghanistan - VOA

France Considering Early Exit From Afghanistan - AP

Afghan Asylum Bids Hit 10-year High - AP

Pakistan

In Bin Laden Town, Father Mourns Another Militant - AP

Iran

Iranians Worry About Possibility of War Amid Tensions with West - LAT

Iran Steps Back From Warning on US Ships - Reuters

Iran's Gulf Smugglers Feel Blowback From Tensions - AP

Iran Between US and a Hard Place - TD opinion

What If Iran's Telling the Truth? - FP opinion

Syria

30 Killed in Syria, As Opposition Seeks UN Intervention - VOA

Syrian Town is ‘Liberated,’ But For How Long? - WP

In Syrian City, a Calm That Few Expect to Last - NYT

Syria Rebels Retreat After Seizing Area Near Capital - Reuters

Roadside Blast Kills 14 in Syria - VOA

Syria Bomb Kills 14; Bodies Reported Found in Hospital - LAT

Ambush of Police Truck in Syria Kills 14 - AP

Arabs to Decide on Syria Mission - BBC

Arab States Set to Keep Monitors in Syria - Reuters

Iraq

US Rights Group Says Iraq Becoming 'Police State' - AP

Gunmen Kill 4 Members of Iraqi Security Forces - AP

Marine's Iraq Killings Trial Resumes in California - AP

Egypt

Muslim Brotherhood Party Wins Sweeping Victory in Parliamentary Election - VOA

Islamists Win 70% of Seats in the Egyptian Parliament - NYT

Egypt's Islamists Win Elections - BBC

Islamists’ Victory Confirmed in Egypt - WP

Islamists Win Nearly Three-quarters of Seats in Egypt Elections - LAT

Salafists Gain in Egypt’s Lower House - WP

Egypt Army Pardons 1,959 Detainees, Prominent Activist - Reuters

Middle East / North Africa

Hamas: Political Leader Does Not Plan to Seek Reelection - NYT

Hamas Head Meshaal to 'Step Down' - BBC

Yemen Lawmakers Approve Immunity for President Saleh - VOA

Yemen Legislators Approve Immunity for the President - NYT

Yemen MPs Approve Saleh Immunity - BBC

Libyans Storm Transitional Govt. HQ in Benghazi - VOA

Libyans Storm Transitional Government Headquarters - AP

Protesters Storm Libyan Government HQ in Benghazi - Reuters

No Easy Path to Modernity for Arab World - G&M opinion

Terrorism

Bird Flu Researchers Postpone Work Amid Bioterrorism Concern - VOA

US Department of Defense

US to Keep 11 Aircraft Carriers to Show Sea Power - AP

Africa

At Least 131 Dead in Nigeria Bombings - VOA

Scores Dead after Nigerian Blasts - BBC

More Than 100 Killed by a Radical Group in Nigeria - NYT

Nigeria Stunned by Kano Attacks that Killed More than 150 - LAT

Bombings Kill at Least 143 in Nigeria - AP

Gunmen Kill Peacekeeper in Sudan's Darfur Region - AP

Darfur Peacekeeper Killed, Three Wounded - Reuters

Officials: US Drone Strike Killed Somali Insurgent - AP

Somalia's Shabaab Says Air Strike Kills Foreign Fighter - Reuters

Gunmen Kidnap American in North Somalia - AP

Ivory Coast: Pro-Gbagbo Rally Attacked, Many Injured - AP

NGOs Critical of Africa Nations Cup Host Equatorial Guinea - VOA

Ousted Leader Is Thwarted in a Return to Madagascar - NYT

Americas

Venezuela: Chávez Gets Bluster Back and Reclaims the Spotlight - NYT

Colombia Rebels Hit Radar Station - BBC

FARC Attack on Colombia Radar Delays Flights, Drug Fight - Reuters

Colombia President: Rebel Leader Rich in Land - AP

Guatemalans Protest Atop Volcano - BBC

Guatemala Ex-Dictator Must Appear in Genocide Case - AP

Dead Man No Dissident, Says Cuba - BBC

Asia Pacific

Tycoon Prods Taiwan Closer to China - WP

Japanese Struggle to Protect Their Food Supply - NYT

US Senators Signal Conditional Support for Lifting Burma Sanctions - VOA

Europe

Germany Has Economic Strengths America Once Boasted - LAT

US Welcomes Upcoming UN-backed Cyprus Talks - VOA

Blame Spreads in Italy's Costa Concordia Shipwreck - LAT

Italy: Divers Resume Search of Capsized Cruise Ship - NYT

Croats Vote in EU Membership Referendum - AP

Hungary’s Lurch Backward - NYT editorial

Read more about 22 January SWJ Roundup

21 January SWJ Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

France Suspends Afghan Military Operations After Troop Deaths - VOA

Four French Soldiers Die in Afghanistan Shooting - BBC

France Threatens Early Exit from Afghanistan - WP

France Weighs Pullout After 4 of Its Soldiers Are Killed - NYT

Election Ahead, Sarkozy Rethinks France’s Afghan Role - AP

France Threatens Afghan Pullout After Troops Killed - Reuters

Afghan Soldier Kills four French Troops, Wounds Several Others - S&S

Defense Officials Offer Condolences for French Casualties - AFPS

US Has New Confidence in Peace Talks with Taliban - AP

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

A Victory for Afghan Women? - WP opinion

Pakistan

Two European Aid Workers Are Kidnapped in Central Pakistan - NYT

Iran

China Leader Warns Iran Not to Make Nuclear Arms - NYT

China Tells Iranian Delegation to Return to Talks - Reuters

EU Moves Closer to Imposing Tough Sanctions on Iran - NYT

EU Open to Iran Talks as Embargo Looms - AP

Major Powers Open to Serious Talks With Iran - Reuters

US Lawmakers Moving to Tighten Screws on Iran - Reuters

New Iran Sanctions Most Threaten Non-US Banks - Reuters

Japan Offers U.S. Support on Iran - Reuters

US Carrier to Test Limits of Iranian Rhetoric - Reuters

IAEA Rejects Iran Accusation Over Scientist's Killing - Reuters

Britain Pulls the Plug on Iran's Press TV - Reuters

Iran Shuts Down Shops Selling Barbie Dolls - AP

Iran Gets the Message from Washington - WP opinion

Syria

4 Killed in Syria, Pressure Mounts on Arab League - VOA

US Mulls Closing Embassy in Syria - VOA

US May Shutter Embassy in Syria - WP

US Warns It May Close Embassy in Syria - NYT

Arabs Consider Syria Mission Fate - BBC

Violence Keeps Syria on Edge, Arab Mission May Extend - Reuters

Syrians Cope With Economic Crisis Amid Uprising - AP

Call for Syria Detainees' Release - BBC

Iraq

Iraqi Forces Raid Sunni Politicians’ Homes - WP

Top Iraqi Shiite Cleric Urges End to Crisis - AP

Marine's Iraq Killings Trial Resumes in California - AP

Body of UK Hostage Turned Over to Embassy in Iraq - AP

Middle East / North Africa

Dempsey Meets with Israeli Officials - AFPS

Joint Chiefs Chairman Meets With Counterpart in Israel - NYT

Top US Military Official in Israel - WP

US Military Chief Holds Talks in Israel on Iran - AP

Self-Immolation Is on the Rise in the Arab World - NYT

Palestinians Condemn MP's Arrest - BBC

US Seeks New Home for Yemen Strongman - AP

Bahrain Shia Cleric Warns Troops - BBC

A Year Later, Egypt Activists Seek More Revolution - AP

Egyptians Rally Ahead of Anniversary of Uprising - AP

Libya Had Chemical Weapon Cache - BBC

Libyan Islamists Rally to Demand Sharia-Based Law - Reuters

Seminar Seeks Insights into ‘Arab Spring’ Phenomenon - AFPS

Egypt’s Economic Crisis - NYT editorial

A Gentler Muslim Brotherhood - WP opinion

US Department of Defense

Weapons Testers Fault Key Pentagon Systems - WP

Panetta: Military Committed to Marine Corps' F-35 Fighter - S&S

Are New Technologies to Blame for Combat Zone Misconduct? - VOA

Panetta: US Military Best in World, But Threats Remain - AFPS

Army Study Shows Decline in Behavioral Health Stigma - AFPS

United States

Senate Set to Take Up Major Cyber Legislation - WP

Arizona Sting Catches 2 Officials in Drug Smuggling - Reuters

7 Charged as FBI Closes a Top File-Sharing Site - NYT

Iranian Student Activist Shot to Death in Texas - ABC

Unemployment High for Young US Military Veterans - VOA

Africa

Bomb Explosions Rock Nigeria's Second Largest City - VOA

Nigeria City Curfew After Blasts - BBC

Explosions Rock Nigeria's Kano, at Least Six Killed - Reuters

7 Dead in Sect Attacks in North Nigeria - AP

US Citizen Kidnapped in Nigeria's Oil Delta - AP

South Sudan Threatens Oil Production Shutdown - VOA

UN: 120,000 S. Sudanese Affected by Ethnic Violence - AP

Somalia's al-Shabab Hit by Major Amisom Offensive - BBC

Somali and African Troops Hit Rebel Posts in Mogadishu - AP

'Many Rebels Die' in Mali Clashes - BBC

Women in Malawi Protest Attacks Over Skirts, Pants - AP

Americas

Bolivia Signs Coca Control Accord With Brazil, US - AP

Bolivia Signs Anti-drug Agreement - BBC

Salvadorans Fret About Homeland - WP

Chileans Guilty of 1991 Arms Deal - BBC

Chile: Generals Guilty, Trafficked Arms to Croatia - AP

Argentina: Falklands Protest at UK Embassy - BBC

Prison Death Brings Outcry Against Cuba - NYT

Cuban Document Details Charges Versus Jailed American - Reuters

Asia Pacific

Odierno Visits US Soldiers in South Korea - AFPS

Burma's President Says No Turning Back on Reforms - VOA

Indonesian Charged With Blasphemy for Atheist Post - AP

With Burma, US Seeks to Keep Some Momentum - WP

Burma’s Democracy Activist Aung San Suu Kyi - WP interview

Europe

Central Bank Becomes an Unlikely Hero in Euro Crisis - NYT

Italy Announces New Steps to Get Economy Moving - NYT

Hungarian Leader Softens on Central Bank Merger - NYT

Russian Communists at a Crossroads - WP

Russian Envoys Leave Canada After Officer Is Accused of Spying - NYT

Germany Marks 70th Anniversary of Plan to Exterminate Jews - VOA

Read more about 21 January SWJ Roundup

This Week at War: Iran's Learning Curve

In my Foreign Policy column, I discuss whether Iran's missile-centric strategy could eventually shred the assumptions U.S. military planners have relied on for decades.

At a press conference this week, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was asked again about U.S. preparations to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. Panetta's response was business-as-usual: "[W]e are not making any special steps at this point in order to deal with the situation. Why? Because, frankly, we are fully prepared to deal with that situation now." Even if Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, conceded last week that Iranian forces would be capable of closing the strait "for a period of time," U.S. policymakers seem comfortable assuming that they would be able to reverse an Iranian move without much trouble.

In a recent column, I explained that it wouldn't make much sense for Iran to start a conventional conflict with the United States Such a conflict would play to the U.S. military's strongest suit, blasting away at traditional military hardware such aircraft, ships, and tanks. Each step up the ladder of escalation would find Iran struggling with a greater mismatch against U.S. forces and suffering ever-increasing punishment. Best for Iran to not get on the ladder in the first place.

But that conclusion might not always be the case. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA), a well-connected Washington defense think tank, just released a new analysis of future military trends around the Persian Gulf. Mark Gunzinger and Chris Dougherty, authors of "Outside-In: Operating from Range to Defeat Iran's Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats," assert that over the next decade, Iran could acquire military capabilities that would rip up the assumptions that the U.S. military has used for its Persian Gulf planning over the past three decades. The authors conclude that the Pentagon needs to adapt to changing military circumstances in the region by devising new plans and redirecting investments into new capabilities.

Since the 1979 Iranian revolution, when U.S. military planning for the region first accelerated, commanders have enjoyed easy access to large, modern air and naval bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and, for a time, Saudi Arabia. In the build-up to the first Gulf War, these modern bases allowed the United States to rapidly deploy over 500,000 soldiers and Marines to the Kuwait border, move thousands of strike and support aircraft to bases close to the front line, and sail six aircraft-carrier strike groups to the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. By failing to disrupt this build-up, Saddam Hussein condemned his army to a swift defeat.

Iran's leaders have no doubt learned from Saddam's mistakes. Rather than spend money on traditional tank, artillery, and infantry formations, Iran is focusing its military investment on missiles, including ballistic missiles that threaten cities and bases on the Arabian Peninsula. Gunzinger and Dougherty are concerned that Iran's growing ability to strike Saudi Arabia, and other U.S. allies on the western side of the Persian Gulf could either shut down U.S. air and naval operations at these close-in bases or coerce these countries' leaders to deny access to U.S. forces during a future crisis.

Iran's leaders may be attracted to this strategy because they suffered from it during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. During the "War of the Cities" phase of that war, scores of missiles were fired into downtown Baghdad, Tehran and other cities. Iraqi missile superiority succeeded in disrupting and demoralizing Tehran and causing thousands to flee the city. Based on their experience, Iranian leaders may believe that others in the region are vulnerable to the same disruption and coercion they remember from the 1980s.

To supplement its missile forces, Iran also has the covert action capability it displayed in the 1996 truck bomb attack on the Khobar Towers housing complex inside Saudi Arabia, an attack that killed 19 U.S. airmen. Tehran may be hoping that the threat of missile and truck-bomb mayhem will be enough to dissuade Arab cooperation with the U.S. military during a future crisis.

Without the ability to operate from close-in bases in the Arabian Peninsula, the United States would find it much more difficult to respond to an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon has made a heavy bet on the stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. If restricted to flying from just Turkey and aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea, the short-range F-35 would be able to cover targets in just the northwest and southeast corners of Iran. For the rest of Iran, the United States has only 20 stealthy B-2 bombers (not all of which would be available) capable of avoiding high-end surface-to-air missile systems Iran may acquire over the next decade. The Navy's land-attack cruise missiles would be helpful but also limited in number. If U.S. forces found themselves having to fight for the Strait of Hormuz from a distant starting line, it could take a long time to reverse an Iranian first move.

In addition to land-attack ballistic missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles are another Iranian priority. The presence of these missiles in quantity would greatly complicate a U.S. Navy effort to clear the Hormuz shipping channel of Iranian mines. The United States would first have to suppress and clear out Iranian shore positions, a task which might keep the strait closed for weeks or even months, with nasty consequences for the global economy.

Iran's missile forces are likely too embryonic to pose such a threat today. And as I explained above, Iran would seem to have little incentive to initiate military escalation, since it would ultimately receive the greatest punishment for doing so.

However, Iran may one day soon see coercion as an effective lever to protect its interests. U.S. and European leaders are hoping that economic sanctions will persuade Tehran to make some compromises on its nuclear program. But Western leaders must also be prepared for the possibility that Iran's leaders may instead opt to impose their own economic sanction on the global economy by closing the strait with mines and anti-ship missiles. If the West's sanction regime becomes very effective, Tehran may conclude that it has little to lose from a closure and much to gain from the economic pain it could impose on everyone else.

Iran would increase the probability of this action succeeding if it improved missile capabilities to a point where it could deny U.S. forces the close-in access to bases in the Arabian Peninsula to which U.S. planners have long become accustomed. In this case, and without changes to current forces and plans, U.S. policymakers may find it surprisingly costly to retake the strait.

Gunzinger and Dougherty recommend that U.S. leaders rethink their assumptions about future operations in the Persian Gulf. They recommend rebalancing investments in new strike aircraft toward platforms with much longer ranges, in order to reduce dependence on close-in bases that may not be available. U.S. diplomats and the Air Force should negotiate air base access agreements in northeast Africa, Southeast Europe, and Central Asia that would support longer-range air operations into the Persian Gulf and diversify dependence away from the increasingly vulnerable existing bases. U.S. planners should reconsider the current location of Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and a major Air Force operations center in Qatar, both within five minutes of Iranian missiles. If Iran closed the strait, it is highly likely that the Marine Corps would be needed in some fashion to assist with reopening the channel. The authors urge the Navy and Marine Corps to maintain adequate amphibious capabilities.

The Pentagon's new strategic guidance attempts to address some of the shortcomings, for example in long-range strike capability, Gunzinger and Dougherty identify. However, it remains to seen whether the Pentagon and Congress will actually reallocate funding into the new areas that effective adaptation will require. Iran's shift away from a traditional army to a strategy centered on missiles is evidence of an adaptive adversary. The lumbering U.S. government should try to be at least as nimble.

Small Wars Journal Change of Command

"Small Wars Journal Change of Command" by Carl Prine at Line of Departure. Though a change, it is not one of command. Peter Munson has replaced Mike Few as our editor. Mike took SWJ to a new level we only hoped to attain and Peter's vision will ensure we stay on that upward climb. Many thanks to both as we keep on, keepin' on.

Andrew J. Bacevich: The Revisionist Imperative

The History News Network recorded this video of Andrew J. Bacevich speaking at the Annual Meeting of the American Historical Association in Chicago, IL, on January 7, 2012. Topic: George C. Marshall Lecture on Military History

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