| Small Wars Journal

In my Foreign Policy column, I explain why the Persian Gulf needs its own NATO and why such an alliance will work only if the United States leads it.

This weekend, NATO will hold its 25th summit meeting in Chicago. Separated by a formidable security cordon from protesters, the heads of government attending -- including President Barack Obama back in his home town -- will attempt to tackle an agenda that includes the future of the military campaign in Afghanistan, implementing a missile defense plan for Europe, improving military cooperation inside the alliance, and addressing how the alliance should engage with outside partners.

Even as it struggles with its future, few would deny that NATO has been one of the most successful military alliances in history. In 1949, Lord Ismay, NATO's first secretary general, declared the goal of the alliance was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down." After achieving at least the first two during the long Cold War, the alliance has hung together for another two decades, although not without questions about its future relevance.

Are there lessons here for other would-be alliance builders? On May 13, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia hosted his own summit meeting of the Sunni Persian Gulf kingdoms (including Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman) with the hope of building a future economic and security union. At a preparatory meeting in December, Abdullah pointed to Iran's encroachments and the uprisings swirling in the region and said, "You all know that we are targeted in our safety and security." He then warned that those who failed to cooperate with his proposal "will find himself at the back of the back of the caravan trail, and be lost." Abdullah was hoping to inject some life into the moribund Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a group the six kingdoms formed in 1981 and has achieved little since.

From Riyadh's perspective, Bahrain is an obvious place to start building the stronger alliance. For over a year, Bahrain's Sunni royal family, with substantial Saudi assistance, has struggled to suppress an uprising by the country's Shiite majority, a rebellion the leaders in both countries believe Tehran has catalyzed. Deeper cooperation leading to success against the revolt would both highlight the perceived threat and show the advantages deeper security and economic cooperation could bring to all six kingdoms.

Abdullah's bid this week failed. The Gulf royals, undoubtedly wary of ceding any of their authority to an already dominant Saudi Arabia, left Riyadh on May 14 wanting, according to Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al Faisal, "details, and the details of the details" regarding the Saudi proposal for a deeper alliance. Although the leaders undoubtedly fear revolution and Iran, for the moment they fear the House of Saud even more.

Can Abdullah learn anything from NATO's history? There seem to be some parallels to the challenges he perceives. In 1949, Western European and U.S. leaders saw an expansionist Soviet Union that maintained a menacing army and was simultaneously instigating internal subversion in Greece, central Europe, Italy, and elsewhere. Abdullah and his fellow Sunni royals worry about Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its support for proxy forces in Lebanon and Syria and provocateurs in Bahrain, eastern Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. The solution for Western leaders in 1949 was a military alliance based on the principle of collective security. Abdullah apparently wants something similar.

Yet Abdullah's scheme is crippled by rivalry among the potential pact's members and distrust of Saudi Arabia's dominance and intentions. Left to themselves, Western Europe's leaders might similarly have struggled to form an effective alliance after World War II, in spite of the motivation the Soviet threat provided. Just like the Sunni leaders today, rivalry, distrust, and incentives to hedge might have dominated their decisions. As one example of internal mistrust, Lord Ismay's 1949 mission statement revealed that Western leaders were still worried that Germany, despite being flattened and dismembered by World War II, might once again rise up to become the dominant power in Europe, just as it had so quickly after the last world war. In addition, Europe had no history of trusting any of its other constituents to lead it, nor did it have many examples of enduring cooperation against common problems.

But Ismay's statement also contained the solution, namely inviting in a powerful outsider, the United States, to lead the alliance. As an outsider that had no claims in Europe and was largely neutral regarding the internal squabbles among the other members, the United States was seen as a partner all the European leaders could trust and the sole force that could hold the alliance together against its self-defeating instincts. The U.S. claim to leadership was certainly aided by its overwhelming economic and military strength after the war. But Europeans also trusted the United States to lead the alliance because an ocean separated it from Europe.

The same principle explains the strength of the U.S. alliance system in Asia. U.S. allies in the Western Pacific shared an interest in deterring first the Soviet Union and now China. A major reason why they can trust the United States as a partner is because it must project its military power across the Pacific Ocean, a task that would become difficult to sustain without the allies' cooperation. With this control over the U.S. reach, these allies have little reason to fear America asserting its own claims in the region. China, by contrast, is a large continental power whose intentions will always be questioned by its small neighbors. It should be no wonder that Beijing has so few allies in the region when Washington is available as a partner.

The United States has a strong interest in seeing Abdullah's initiative advance. From the U.S. perspective, the most sustainable and cost-effective end-state for the Iran problem is the achievement of a stable balance of power across the Persian Gulf. Encouraging the GCC to develop into an effective military alliance is essential to achieving this balance of power. But after three decades of effort, the GCC has yet to live up to this potential, as Abdullah's pleading reveals. And the GCC has failed because its small members do not trust Saudi Arabia.

Just as NATO needed the United States to overcome Europe's history of mistrust and rivalry, the GCC needs the United States in order to convince the smaller Sunni countries to finally work with Saudi Arabia. As a member of the GCC, the United States would reprise the roles it has played in NATO and Asia -- the dominant outsider, with no claims in the region, and a player the rest of the teammates can trust.

Getting the U.S. Senate to ratify a collective security treaty binding the U.S. military to the Persian Gulf would be a very tough sell for a country weary of engagement in that part of the world. It would seem an insuperable task to round up politicians in Washington willing to commit America in advance to more Middle East wars.

But ever since the arrival of the Carter Doctrine in January 1980, the United States has made an expanding de facto commitment to the security of the Persian Gulf region. Converting this de facto commitment into a treaty obligation to the GCC could improve its credibility and thus reduce the probability of actual conflict, as has long been the case with the U.S. treaty commitments to Europe and Asia.

In any case, the U.S. interest in Abdullah's initiative will remain because it continues to be the best path toward stability across the Persian Gulf. This week's meeting in Riyadh, combined with the GCC's own sad history, shows that Abdullah's pleas and Iran's peril are still not enough to overcome distrust. As they ponder how to bring stability to the Persian Gulf at the most reasonable cost, U.S. policymakers should consider the model that worked so well in Europe and Asia.

Strategic Implications for the Army in the Post-2012 Election Environment

Editor's Note: Doug Macgregor presented this originally as a powerpoint brief to intermediate-level education students. It is converted from its original format for ease of online reading, though the slide and bullet structure was maintained.

Slide 1

Strategic Implications for the Army in the Post-2012 Election Environment

Agenda

•Don’t fight the problem!

•What are the broad strategic trend lines?

•What will America’s Post-Election Defense Establishment look like?

•What should the Army senior leadership do?

•Truthful, open debate is vital.

•Summary of Key Points

Slide 2

“Don't fight the problem, decide it.” George C. Marshall, General of the Army America’s military technological edge and advantages in training, discipline and flexibility have been eroded by the U.S. failure to sustain investment in strategic and operational forces. This condition is the direct consequence of our self-defeating obsession with hegemonic nation building, military occupations and resulting counter-insurgency campaigns in the Middle East and Afghanistan. This period is ending. Now, Army Force Design, Modernization and Thinking about warfare must adjust to radically new strategic conditions.
The Central Idea: “Cross-domain synergy. The complementary vice merely additive employment of capabilities in different domains such that each enhances the effectiveness and compensates for the vulnerabilities of the others…” JOINT OPERATIONAL ACCESS CONCEPT (JOAC) VERSION 1.0 17 January 2012

Slide 3

Trend lines: Russia, NE Asia and India

Russia: Down from 14 million in the armed forces to less than a million. Russian forces are hard pressed to modernize, let alone secure Russia, which borders 14 nations. Russia’s focus is on restive Muslim at home and in Central Asia, not on the US and the West.
China: Stability‐obsessed leaders are focused on maintaining rapid economic growth to create enough jobs for China’s 1.3 billion people and keep a lid on unrest. China’s Military (PLA) is riddled with corruption and professional decay, compromised by ties of patronage, and asphyxiated by the ever‐greater effort required to impose political control.
Japan and the ROK: Japanese and Korean Defense Ministers will soon sign a general security of military information agreement and an acquisition and cross‐servicing agreement. The foundation for a military alliance that will turn the tables on China and change the strategic balance in NE Asia.
India: China’s acquisition of Coco Island from Myanmar and build up of Gawadar Naval base in Pakistan have induced India to build up its own naval forces. India’s naval base at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, is critical to India’s strategy for blocking Chinese shipping through the Strait of Malacca.

Slide 4

Trend lines: The Islamic World and Latin America

Muslim Societies in North Africa, ME and SWA are in meltdown. Islamism is rising because it is rooted in the societies and their supporting cultures. The growing Islamist majorities will struggle for decades to govern themselves.
Turkey and Iran are in direct opposition in Syria; attempts to remove Assad from power in Syria are reinforcing Iran’s perception that it needs a nuclear deterrent to hold the Sunni Peninsular Arabs, Israel, Turkey, and potentially U.S. Forces at risk. Securing Iran and its new Shiite Satellite State, Iraq, and competition for regional dominance will pit Turkey and Iran against each other for decades.
Criminality, terrorism and human trafficking from Latin America, especially, Mexico, presents an immediate and growing threat to the internal stability and national security of the United States. Mexico is in the midst of a drug war, with rival cartels fighting for control of a $30 billion market for illegal drugs inside the United States.
The future key terrain of the world will be oil, minerals, water and the infrastructure that supports these resources. Al Faw in the Persian Gulf pumps out roughly $17,000 a second in crude oil. 42% of Nigeria's oil already goes to the United States… The West with Japanese participation is dividing up the World’s resources on the Yalta model. The Chinese are not invited …

Slide 5

Trend lines: Debt Matters!

When interest rates on the U.S. Treasury’s securities rise – and they will – the U.S. Government’s cost of servicing the nation’s ballooning debt will soar confronting Americans with a new fiscal crisis;
In Senator Tom Coburn’s words, “the specter of default.”
International Financial Outlook is grim. EUROZONE will implode followed by UK;
NE Asia: Chinese economic downturn already underway. Japan and Korea will follow.
Near Term: Probability of ‘Great power’ war low, but a Korean‐Style Emergency that demands ready, deployable Army combat forces capable of decisive, Joint offensive operations remains a strong possibility. Until borders are secure, Americans at home are at risk.
Long‐term: The prerequisite for any fight with U.S. Forces is to neutralize U.S. space-based assets. This fight involves kinetic and non‐kinetic (cyber) capabilities and will only intensify.

Slide 6

What do the trend leans mean for America's post election defense establishment?

Critical Task for incoming Defense Team in January 2013: Optimize today’s forces within the trend lines to guide strategic investment over time.
Industrial Age paradigm inefficiencies and duplications reduce operational impact and perpetuate unsustainable “cost exchange ratios” with our adversaries (Vietnam/Iraq/Afghanistan).
Optimizing “capability at cost” in new paradigm dramatically increases operational impact of each dollar spent – maintaining/enhancing security at reduced spending levels.

Slide 7

Implications for Army Ground Forces:

The U.S. will no longer sustain open‐ended military interventions in failing or failed states with the object of imposing cultural and political change with general purpose ground forces.
The Army can learn more about the future character of warfighting operations from the Falkland Islands Campaign than from its experience in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lines of Communications will be the life or death of force projection over vast distances. In the Pacific, Australia is key. (See Key State Strategy outlined in Breaking the Phalanx, Praeger January 1997)
The Army must offer a modular continuum of response that is flexible and inherently joint in design and assert a leadership role in Joint operations and concepts.
Without a new force design in place, the Army will not get a new strike vehicle or C4ISR package is the start point for change. Standardization of sensors, networks, C2 data, and intelligence is vital.

Slide 8

What should the Army’s senior leaders do?

In December 1905, three years after the Boer War ended, Richard Haldane became Secretary of State for War. Obstructed by a nation obsessed with the Royal Navy, and a political culture opposed to conscription, Haldane began preparing the British Army for a future conflict very different from colonial warfare.
Haldane set out to determine the form future war was likely to take, then, adopted the organization and weapons to fight it. In other words, software (thinking carefully about things, contemplating likely issues and problems) must come before hardware. What happened?
Haldane concentrated on reorganization, modernization and training to maximize capability at cost;
In practice, Haldane built a ground force suited to a global Maritime Power, not a regional Continental Power;
The result was an elite force of 6 infantry divisions and 1 cavalry division, designed for rapid deployment as a British Expedition Force (BEF), backed by a reserve of 14 Territorial divisions of volunteers;
In 1914, the BEF arrived in time to slow, then, cooperate with the French to halt the German advance.

Slide 9

Implications of the Haldane Model for today’s Army:

The Haldane approach demands rigorous analysis to link strategy with concept and capabilities; an integrated, joint military command structure with a self‐contained organization for combat. An Army for a global Aerospace‐Maritime Power, not a continental power!
New Army Force Design must:
- Create powerful synergies with the technologies and concepts developed by U.S. Aerospace and Maritime Forces.
- Punch above its weight, mobilizing fighting power disproportionate to their size;
- Operate in a non‐linear, nodal and dispersed, mobile warfare environment inside a much more lethal battle space.
- Possess the capability to close with the enemy, take hits, sustain losses, keep fighting and strike back decisively (employ accurate devastating firepower from tracked armored platforms to ensure survival and victory in close combat).

Slide 10

The Light Reconnaissance Strike Group (LRSG) breaks the WW II/Cold War paradigm!

The post‐election Army must be resilient. It must be survivable, effective and act as a Joint enabler across a range of alternative futures.
A Light Reconnaissance Strike Group performs critical tasks in the context of Joint operations:
- Provides a credible land component with the mobility, firepower, protection and organic sustainment to operate autonomously under Joint C2 in dispersed mobile warfare;
- Signals escalation dominance to the enemy;
- Bypasses or punches through enemy resistance for operational maneuver to encircle and destroy sub‐national groups or nation‐state forces;
- Shifts rapidly between close combat and peace enforcement.

Slide 11

Post-Industrial/Information Age Joint, Integrated C2 Warfighting Paradigm

Integrated “All Arms” Warfare: Warfighting Operations that integrate functional capabilities – Maneuver, Strike, IISR, Sustainment – across service lines inside an integrated Joint C2 operational framework.
“High lethality, low density”: Army Forces that punch above their weight, capable of operational reach in an environment of mobile, dispersed warfare.

Slide 12

In the absence of truthful, open debate nothing changes

“The question of whether to invade the Soviet Union is a political decision. My focus is on the military issues important to such an undertaking… It may be the campaign is over in 4‐6 weeks. Perhaps, the whole thing will collapse like a house of cards in the first attack.” Lieutenant General Friedrich Paulus, Chief Planner for Operation Barbarossa, 1940
“I've never been more encouraged during my entire, almost four years in this country. I think we're making real progress. Everybody is very optimistic that I know of, who is intimately associated with our effort there.” General William Westmoreland, 16 November 1967
“During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” George Orwell, 1929
No Accountability = No Integrity = No Change

Slide 13

Summary of Key Points:

The future of the Army is a constrained future‐‐especially in the budgetary sense. The Haldane model points the way forward.
Meanwhile, reorganize Army Forces to expand the nation’s range of strategic options; forces capable of conducting integrated, “all arms” operations in dispersed, mobile warfare against a mix of potential opponents, conventional and unconventional.
Like the Navy, Air Force and Marines, the U.S. Army exists to raise, train, and equip modular/mission focused capability packages and C2 elements designed for commitment to the COCOMs and plugged into Joint Force Headquarters which have the authority and the responsibility to fight and win the nation's wars.

18 May SWJ Roundup

Small Wars Journal Daily Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

Allen: NATO Summit to Define ‘Vision’ for Afghanistan - AFPS

US Redefines Afghan Success Before Conference - NYT

Obama Requesting Help to Pay for Afghan Army - AP

Catalog of War’s Wounded Could Be Model - NYT

Taliban Stage Deadly Strike on Afghan Governor’s Office - NYT

Insurgents Storm Governor’s Office in Western Afghanistan - McClatchy

Afghan Suicide Raid Kills Police - BBC

Obama to Meet Afghanistan's Karzai at NATO Summit - Reuters

US Blacklists Two for Alleged Ties to Al Qaeda, Taliban - Reuters

Survivors of Massacre Recall horror of Gunman’s Assault - McClatchy

ISAF Operations Summary - AFPS

Undermining Afghanistan - WP opinion

Pakistan

Pakistani President to Attend NATO Summit - VOA

ISAF Commander Sees Positive Signs for Relationship with Pakistan - AFPS

Syria

UN Observers Face Daunting Challenges in Syria - VOA

Leader of Syria's Fragmented Opposition to Resign - VOA

Syrian Opposition Head Offers to Resign - AP

UN Chief Believes Al Qaeda Behind Syria Car Bombs- Reuters

Russia Says Action on Syria, Iran May Go Nuclear - Reuters

Syria Complains to UN About Tourism Downturn Amid Conflict - Reuters

Turn the Tide in Syria - WP opinion

Iran

US Envoy to Israel: US Ready to Strike Iran - AP

US Strike Plan on Iran 'Ready' - BBC

Russia Says Action on Syria, Iran May Go Nuclear - Reuters

OPEC Sees Drop in Iran Oil Production - NYT

Iran Parliament Approves Reduced Sanction-Hit Budget - Reuters

Senate Republicans Block Iran Sanctions Vote - Reuters

Iran Summons Bahraini Diplomat, Denies Meddling - Reuters

Ahmadinejad Wants to Attend London Olympics - AP

Middle East / North Africa

Panetta: US-Israel Security Cooperation Never Stronger - AFPS

US Giving Israel $70 Million More for Iron Dome - AP

US Military Role Deepens in Yemen - VOA

Yemeni Army Pushing Into Al-Qaida Stronghold - AP

Qaeda Chief Urges Saudis to Topple Ruling Family - Reuters

Regional Crises Boost Turkey's Ties With Iraq's Kurds - VOA

Aboul Fotouh Courts Egypt's Broad Political Base - VOA

Egypt Brotherhood Forms Human Chain for Candidate - Reuters

Algeria Elections Look Good Abroad, Bad at Home - AP

ICC Judges to Consider Libyan Request to Try Gadhafi Son - VOA

Morocco Slams 'Biased' UN Western Sahara Envoy - Reuters

United Nations

Pirate Guards Need Global Guidelines - Reuters

A Conversation With Ambassador Rice - NYT

G8 Summit

Economic Crisis: Germany Cuts While US Spends - WP

G8 Summit to Focus on Africa Food Security - VOA

G8 to Discuss Range of Oil Market Options - Reuters

Germany, the Crisis and the G-8 - NYT editorial

NATO Summit

Allen: NATO Summit to Define ‘Vision’ for Afghanistan - AFPS

US Redefines Afghan Success Before Conference - NYT

NATO Members to Discuss Burden Sharing - VOA

Obama Requesting Help to Pay for Afghan Army - AP

Pakistani President to Attend NATO Summit - VOA

Obama to Meet Afghanistan's Karzai at NATO Summit - Reuters

Fighters to Fly Air Defense Exercise to Prepare for NATO Summit - AFPS

US Department of Defense

Future Joint Force Must Be Balanced, General Says - AFPS

Defense Contractors Eye Cuts to Jobs, Plants - WT

Exercise Introduces Students to Negotiating Tactics - AFPS

When War Reporting Becomes Crime Reporting - S&S

'Steering Malfunction' Suspected in Collision of Two Navy Ships - S&S

Panetta Honors Marine Corps Aviation’s Centennial - AFPS

United States

Counterterror Expert: ‘We’re Still a Ways Away’ from Defeating al-Qaeda - WP

Federal Judge: Terror Law Violates 1st Amendment - AP

Drug Trafficking Threatens National Security, Official Says - AFPS

Obama Seeks to Woo Military Vote from Republicans - WT

Customs Not Playing Hide-and-Seek with Carry-on Contraband - WT

Is There a Drone in Your Backyard? - WT opinion

Africa

G8 Summit to Focus on Africa Food Security - VOA

Niger Malnutrition Crisis Growing - BBC

AFRICOM First to Test New Regional Brigade Concept - S&S

DOD, Agencies Cooperate to Confront West Africa Trafficking - AFPS

South Sudan: SPLA Soldiers Hold Frontline Position - VOA

UN Council Calls for Sudan Agreement - AP

UN Council Demands Sudan Withdraw From Disputed Region - Reuters

Flood of Nuba Refugees Hits Camp Near Sudan Border - AP

US Lawmakers Want to Halt Aid to Nations Hosting Sudan's Bashir - Reuters

Congo Warlord's 'Days Numbered' - BBC

African Troops in Guinea-Bissau - BBC

West African Troops Start Arriving in Guinea-Bissau - Reuters

'Robbers' Killed in Nigeria Blast - BBC

Death Penalty for Somaliland Raid - BBC

African Jihadist Group Threatens To Kill Spanish Hostage - VOA

Aid for Africa - WP editorial

Americas

US Says Its Agents Fired No Shots in Honduran Gunbattle - NYT

Probe Opens into Honduras Drug Bust - WP

Reverberations From Drug Raid Felt in US, Honduras - AP

Inmates Take Over Honduras Jail - BBC

Mexico Army Generals Probed for Cartel Ties - AP

Judge Holds Mexican Generals Over for Drug Probe - Reuters

Colombian Ex-Lawmaker Arrested in Alleged Betrayal - AP

Gunfire Erupts at Venezuelan Prison - AP

US Grants Visa to Raul Castro’s Daughter, Denies Cuban Academics - WP

Cuban President's Daughter Gets US Visa - AP

Asia Pacific / Central

Commander Seeks Better Military-to-Military Relations With China - AFPS

Tibetan Exile Group Blasts Chinese Crackdown in Autonomous Region - VOA

‘Princelings’ in China Use Family Ties to Gain Riches - NYT

China Seeks to Assure Workers of Stability - VOA

US Sets New Tariffs on Chinese Solar Imports - Reuters

Thousands Practice Leaving Korea in Event of Northern Aggression - S&S

N. Korea Reportedly Resumes Work on Reactor - VOA

North Korea Said to Resume Work on Nuclear Reactor - NYT

UN Probes Possible N. Korea Arms Trade With Syria, Burma - Reuters

N. Koreans Demand Ransom for Detained Chinese Fishermen - VOA

N. Koreans Accused of Seizing Chinese Fishing Boats for Ransom - WP

Japan Launches South Korea Satellite - BBC

US Suspends Economic Sanctions on Burma - VOA

As Relations Warm With Burma, US to Ease Trade Limits - NYT

US Eases Investment Ban on Burma - WP

US Relaxes Some Burma Sanctions - BBC

US Eases Economic Sanctions to Reward Burma - AP

Europe

EUCOM Humanitarian Assistance Enhances Security Aims - AFPS

Italy Deploys 20,000 to Protect Sensitive Targets - AP

France's New Leader Faces First Test Overseas - VOA

French Government Takes Pay Cut - BBC

Greek Cabinet Sworn in Amid Bank Run Fears - VOA

Greek Party Most Extreme of Europe's Far Right - AP

Spain Banking Sector Shaken by Report of Bank Run - AP

‘Predictable Cooperation’ replaces Russia’s anti-American rhetoric - WP

US, Russian Soldiers Train Together in Colorado - AP

Russian Opposition Leader Sentenced to 10 Days - AP

Turkey Protests Israeli Flyover of North Cyprus - VOA

Trial of Former Bosnian Serb Commander Is Delayed - NYT

Judge Delays Serb Mladic Trial Due to Evidence Errors - AP

Germany, the Crisis and the G-8 - NYT editorial

Europe’s Moral Hazard - WP opinion

Apocalypse Fairly Soon - NYT opinion

South Asia

Love of Gold Strains India’s Finances - WP

Read more about 18 May SWJ Roundup

17 May SWJ Roundup

Small Wars Journal Daily Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World - RCP

Afghanistan

US Path Out of Afghanistan Faces Risks - Reuters

Asking a Skeptical Europe to Open Its Wallet for Afghanistan - NYT

Afghanistan to be Top Agenda Item in Chicago NATO Summit - VOA

Attack on Afghan Government Compound Kills 5 - AP

Marines to Receive Navy Cross for Afghanistan Valor - S&S

Afghanistan Mulls Islamic Bonds, Fearing Western Cash Cutback - Reuters

How to Keep Afghanistan Secure - TNI opinion

Pakistan

Pakistan Agrees to Reopen Supply Route to Afghanistan, For a Fee - McClatchy

Pakistan Seeks $5,000 Transit Fee for Each NATO Shipping Container - WP

Pakistan’s Blown Chance - WP opinion

Syria

Syria is 'Losing Information War' - BBC

Syrian Activists: Government Attacks Kill 9 - VOA

Syria Blasts Might be Sign al-Qaida Penetrating Rebellion - USAT

Syria Leader, in Rare TV Interview, Disparages Opponents - NYT

Syrian Leader Says Terrorists are Behind Unrest - AP

Diplomat: UN Experts Say Iran Sends Arms to Syria - AP

US Playing a Waiting Game on Syria - CNN opinion

Iran

Iran Warns West Against Pressure in Nuclear Talks - AP

Iran Nuclear Output Seen Steady Before Baghdad Talks - Reuters

Senate to Consider New Iran Sanctions on Thursday - Reuters

Plans to Strike Iran 'Ready', Says US Israel Envoy - Reuters

United Arab Front Against Iran Less Likely - VOA

Bahrain and Iran in 'Union' Row - BBC

Middle East / North Africa

Reports: US Aids Yemen al-Qaida Strikes - VOA

South Yemen Air Strikes 'Kill 16' - BBC

Obama Warns Against Political Disruption in Yemen - AP

North Lebanon Fighting Kills One; Ninth in Five Days - Reuters

New Palestinian Cabinet Sworn In - BBC

Israeli Court Orders Three West Bank Settlements Demolished - VOA

Bahraini Activist Rajab on Trial - BBC

Muslim Brotherhood Presidential Candidate Underdog in Egypt - WP

Egypt Military Ruler: Presidential Vote to be Free - AP

Seven Die in South Libya Clash - BBC

Clashes in Western Libyan Town Leave 6 Dead - AP

Libya Says Gaddafi's Son Refusing Defense Lawyer - Reuters

Is US Going Above and Beyond for Israel? - WP opinion

NATO

Obama Hosts NATO, Focus on Afghanistan and Alliance Future Global Role - VOA

Turkey Flexes Muscles Before NATO Summit - VOA

UK Minister: Cyberattack Could Prompt NATO Action - AP

Big Gathering for NATO Puts Chicago on High Alert - NYT

NATO Summit Gives Chicago Coveted Global Spotlight - AP

US Department of Defense

Dempsey Describes Future Force at Warfighting Conference - AFPS

House Appropriators Add $5.3 Billion to Defense Bill for Weapons Buys - S&S

Senate Committee Approves Seven Pentagon Nominees - Reuters

New Navy Command to Incorporate Riverines - VP

Army Probing PTSD Diagnoses at All of its Medical Facilities - S&S

Army Probing PTSD Diagnoses - WP

Army to Review Its Handling of Psychiatric Evaluations - NYT

GAO Cites Bad Bookkeeping in Guard's State Partnership Program - S&S

Odierno: Army 'Moving Toward' Opening Combat Arms to Women - AFPS

Odierno Eyes Expansion of Women's Combat Roles in the Fall - S&S

Army Replaces First Female Head of Drill Sergeant School - AP

New Book Explores Military Acquisition After World War II - AFPS

Budget Crisis Drives Defense Strategy - WT opinion

United States

White House Official Who Spotlighted Cybersecurity Holes Retiring - WP

FBI Chief Says Leak on Qaeda Plot Is Being Investigated - NYT

FBI Confirms Leak Probe on al-Qaida Plot - AP

The Deficit and the Wars - WP opinion

Goodbye to Gitmo - NYT opinion

United Kingdom

Cameron Looks to Shield Britain From Euro Break-Up - Reuters

UK: 10,500 Army Personnel for Olympic Games - AP

After 7 Years, No End in Sight to Phone Hacking Scandal - NYT

Canada

Canadian Police Violated Laws in G-20 Sweep, Inquiry Finds - NYT

Africa

Arab League Joins Campaign for Sudan Aid Corridor - VOA

UN Warns of South Sudan Hunger - BBC

Guinea-Bissau Prepares For Arrival Of ECOWAS Peacekeepers - VOA

Guinea-Bissau Gets Prime Minister Under New Deal - AP

Report: Congo Mutiny Using Child Soldiers - VOA

DRC Rebel 'Still Recruits Youth' - BBC

Church Leaders in Uganda Praying for Strongman to Go - WT

Man Held over Kenya Club Attack - BBC

Rights Group: Mali Facing 'Worst Crisis Since Independence' - VOA

Former Liberian President Speaks at War Crimes Sentencing Hearing - VOA

Ex-Liberian President Taylor Says Witnesses 'Bought' - BBC

Americas

Mexico Drugs: Two Generals Probed - BBC

Mexico Charges 8 in Saint Death Cult Killings - AP

DEA’s Agents Join Hondurans in Drug Battles - NYT

US Agents on Deadly Honduran Military Operation - AP

Honduran Area Demands DEA Leave After Shooting - AP

Abducted Honduras Reporter Killed - BBC

Kidnapped Honduran Radio News Director Found Slain - AP

Murder of Honduran Reporter Blamed on Drug Gangs - Reuters

Young Man Sought in Colombia Bombing - AP

Brazil Truth Commission Installed - BBC

Brazil Probing Dictatorship Human Rights Abuses - AP

Argentine Rights Figure Charged - BBC

Asia Pacific / Central

16 Retired Chinese Communist Party Officials Call for 2 Leaders to Step Down - NYT

China Veterans Urge Zhou Sacking - BBC

S. China Sea Dispute Blamed Partly on Depleted Fish Stocks - VOA

Chinese Dissident Submits Passport Application - VOA

Activist: China to Have Passports Ready in 2 Weeks - AP

Taiwan To Build ‘Stealth’ Warship Fleet - DN

US-South Korea Alliance Provides Security in Northeast Asia - AFPS

China Pushes North Korea to Drop Nuclear Test Plan - Reuters

North Korea Nuclear Reactor Construction Progressing - AP

North Korean Boat Hijacks 3 Chinese Fishing Boats - AP

Malaysia Sentences 3 Mexicans to Death Over Drugs - AP

Girl Killed in Cambodia Land Protest - BBC

Europe

Europe Prepares for Dressing Down at G8 - VOA

As G-8 Gathers, a Test Looms for the Euro Zone - WP

Bank Warns of Euro Crisis 'Storm' - BBC

EUCOM’s State Partnership Program Becomes Global Model - AFPS

Greece Appoints Caretaker PM, Sets Date for New Elections - VOA

Flight of Euros Accelerates, Adding to Greece’s Worries - NYT

Greek Leftist Attacks EU 'Poker' - BBC

Softening, Merkel Says She Is Open to Stimulus for Greece - NYT

Hollande Taps Old Hands, New Faces for French Government - Reuters

French PM Ayrault Names Cabinet - BBC

France Wants Euro Pact Amended - Reuters

Russia: Moscow 'Occupy' Camp Shut Down - VOA

Russian Authorities Press Crackdown on Anti-Putin Protests - NYT

Russia: Moscow Police Raid New Protest Site - WP

Georgian Power Struggle Becomes DC Lobbying Battle - WP

Spanish Queen Cancels UK Visit - BBC

Spain Rejects ETA Talks Request - BBC

Italy's Bossi in Fraud Probe - BBC

Turkish Attack on Civilians Tied to Information from US Military Drone - S&S

Tadic Seen as Safe Pair of Hands for Recovering Serbia - Reuters

Serb Mladic Goes on Trial for War Crimes - VOA

Bosnian Serb Leader Faces War Crimes Charges - NYT

Mladic 'Led Bosnia Ethnic Cleansing' - BBC

Prosecutors Lay Out Srebrenica Case Against Serb Mladic - AP

European Court of Human Rights: US Rendition 'Torture' Case Heard - BBC

Time Running Out for Greece - WT editorial

South Asia

Former Sri Lanka Rebels 'Disappear' - BBC

Bangladeshi Arrests Spark Anger - BBC

US-India: A Soft Power Tie That Binds - RCW opinion

Read more about 17 May SWJ Roundup

On Scene Report Day One - 2012 Joint Warfighting Conference

Via USNI e-mail: On Scene Report Day One - 2012 Joint Warfighting Conference:

Keynote Discussion: “Joint & Coalition Operations: What’s the Way Ahead?”

What lies ahead for joint warfighting, particularly as U.S. conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia are winding down and the budget process is trending toward military cutbacks?

Those were some of the issues raised the opening session of the United States Naval Institute and AFCEA’s 2012 conference on joint warfighting, as joint warfighting is nearing an inflection point.

Retired Lt. Gen. John R. Wood, the former deputy commander of the U.S. Joint Forces command echoed the theme of the conference and said it is “knowing what to hold and what to fold.”

“It really does seem that we’re at another inflection point but it’s not unusual that we are,” Wood said. “It’s May. Spring is coming, or spring is upon us. Summer is ahead and the budget season is playing out, no different than we’ve seen in the past and other times in history in which we’ve approached an inflection point at the conclusion or beginning of war.”

Wood called it the result of an 11-year cycle of war, but said something will come the fall that will determine the ultimate “way ahead” and called it similar to other historical events that signified other inflection points in these cycles – be it the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War, or a terrorist attack like Sept. 11, 2001. (More Online)

Profession of Arms: How Do the Services Meet Tomorrow’s Expectations & News Challenges?

After identifying some of the changes in the landscape of joint warfighting, the second panel session of the conference took on meeting these challenges, with a renewed focus on the importance of the education.

The panel was moderated by Major Gen. Robert H. Scales, USA (Ret.), former commandant of the U.S. Army War College. He made the same points that were made in the panel, which throughout the last 200 years, the changes in the paradigm of warfare occur at the beginning and end of conflicts.

But it was Scales’ first panelist U.S. Air Force Major Gen. Thomas K. Andersen, the commander of the Curtis E. LeMay Center for Doctrine Development and Education that said with the budget looming, putting an emphasis on education is as important as ever.

“I like to say that we have to convince our bosses at the Air Force that education is an investment and not an expense,” Andersen said.

That so-called “investment” according to Andersen’s co-panelist, U.S. Navy Rear Admiral John N. Christenson, president of the U.S. Naval War College, is important because to prepare for new challenges it is important to study human nature, which he says never changes.

“We study history, we study planning and we study cooperation,” Christenson said of the U.S. Navy War College. “Those are kind of the big three.”That cooperation Christenson said extends beyond just the U.S. Armed Forces, but with other nations as well. (More Online)

Luncheon Keynote Address: Gen. James E. “Hoss” Cartwright, USMC (Ret.) former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Giving an unusually blunt luncheon keynote address on day one was Gen. James E. “Hoss” Cartwright, USMC (Ret.), former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the inaugural Harold Brown chair in defense policy studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

According to Cartwright, it is an unprecedented time for the United States and its military because these circumstances have never been encountered in our nation’s history.

“We are in an unprecedented time,” he said. “Almost everybody that gets up here will tell you that. With 10 years of war under our belt, there’s really no precedent for that. In this country, we generally think of going off, we stay until it’s done and then we come home. That’s just not the case in this conflict. This conflict is really the first big and extended conflict of the all-volunteer force.”

Cartwright identified three areas that needed to be addressed going forward as the military meets this “inflection point.”

“One is strategy,” he said. “The other is the resource side of the equation. And the third is how in fact we’re going to make those match up, which sometimes is called grand strategy, when you’re trying to line up ends and means.”
But looming large over the military are budgetary issues and while much remains uncertain, changes are inevitable.

“While we squeal a lot about debt reduction and about how terrible it was, we were heading in that direction anyway,” he said. “That’s the reality. We do not want to talk about the next increments. We’re willing to say the word ‘sequester’ without saying we’re going to do anything different.”

“The reality out there – your crystal ball is as good as mine,” he continued. “Given any given month, it looks like there’s going to be a sequestration.” (View Full Speech Online)

Young Warfighters: What Lessons Are Worth Keeping & How Do We Keep Our Fighting Edge?

With the changes acknowledged and pending with our nation’s defense apparatus, is it possible under the circumstances for what remains to keep its so-called fighting edge.

Looking down the road, the moderator of the last panel of the day, former commander of the U.S. Pacific Command Adm. Timothy J. Keating, USN (Ret.), asked his panelists how things will look in five years after the changes take place.

“I’m optimistic where we are going to be in five years,” Bowers said. “Everyone has heard, everyone understands that we’re going to have to operate the joint forces ahead of austerity. There’s going to be cuts. There’s going to be less people. We’re going to have less stuff.”

But Bowers explained that opened door for the armed forces to put quality ahead of quantity and recruit and train better individual as to he was optimistic.

Lt. Commander James “Cheeze” Presler said it would become more of matter of figuring out if these warfighters “want to be here” with these changes.

And despite these changes, according to Presler’s co-panelist Lt. Joseph “Grant” Thomas, the mission of keeping the edge remains the same with or without the cutbacks.

View the On Scene Report on the USNI web site »

Unified Quest Army Future Game

We are in the midst of a uniquely challenging time in our Army’s history, although frankly it seems like we can always say that.

We still have a significant number of troops in combat in Afghanistan and continued involvement in the Philippines, the Horn of Africa and other places around the world and ensuring their success is our main effort. North Korea and Iran remain challenges we cannot ignore. We are on the front edge of a drawdown in an era of fiscal austerity. Lastly, our national strategy is shifting to focus on the Asia-Pacific region and broadening to a construct of “prevent, shape and win.”

At the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, we consider these challenges and our national strategy, and determine how we might best shape the future force. One way to accomplish this is through our “Unified Quest” series of seminars, workshops and symposia.

Results from the UQ series will inform our revision of the strategic concepts found in the Army Capstone Concept and the Army Operating Concept. Results will also help us implement Unified Land Operations Doctrine (ADP 3.0), particularly in consideration of doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, and facilities (DOTMLPF).

The capstone event of this year’s Unified Quest is the “Army Future Game.” This war game will examine the role of the Army as a decisive, adaptive force across a range of military operations. During the war game, held June 3-8 at Carlisle Barracks, two working groups will address operational scenarios set in 2020 in the PACOM and CENTCOM theaters. Free-play “Red Teams” will employ anti-access and area denial operations within an overarching hybrid strategy to enable a rigorous examination of key proposed concepts. Additionally, a strategic working group composed of more than 60 senior leaders and subject matter experts will examine key strategy and policy issues relevant to shaping the Army of 2020 and informing the Quadrennial Defense Review.

In the Army Future Game we are going to wrestle with some critical challenges. For example, we’ve steadily improved our integration and interoperability of special operations and conventional forces over the last decade of combat. A key issue is how this integration should evolve to best defeat future threats. Additionally, we’d like to develop thoughts on how we accomplish this at home station, at our national combat training centers, and in regional engagement activities.

We’ll also consider how we overcome the hybrid strategy of adversaries that combine the capabilities of conventional, terrorist, criminal, proxy, and irregular organizations and forces. To do this, our scenarios will cause our “Blue Forces” to closely examine how innovations across DOTMLPF might help defeat hybrid strategies.

Overall, we’ll examine about a dozen of these kinds of issues. This analysis will provide us strategic and operational insight and potential implications for Joint and Army concepts. Ultimately, we’ll develop recommendations to posture both the institutional and operational Army to successfully execute their roles during the 2018-2030 timeframe.

This event will help leaders shape our Army as the operational environment changes, and as we transition our national strategy. We’ll see the next step of this process in July, when the Chief of Staff of the Army leads a senior-leader seminar to review the insights and recommendations of the Army Future Game. At that point, I’ll bring you up to date with what we think we have learned. In the meantime, if you have thoughts on integrating special operations and conventional forces, or how we might defeat hybrid strategies, then please join in the conversation. The more voices in the discourse, the better chance we’ll have of getting this right.

Reverse Leadership? Another Buzz Word for Disruptive Thinkers?

This will be no news to most military leaders, but is still worth pointing out the source and a different perspective on leadership. A Harvard Business Review blog post discusses the concept of "reverse leadership." This is a buzz phrase for what some call functional leadership and what could be simply stated as "letting experts or other people with good ideas in your organization take the lead on creating a solution even if they don't hold a formal leadership billet." Yes, yes, another buzz phrase, grumble, snipe, snark, but it is worth considering concepts and we don't have to carry the buzz phrase branding with them. The author, Scott Edinger offers a list of suggestions.

They're the ones with strong interpersonal skills born of self-awareness. [To lead through influence and not authority] they must be self-aware enough to understand the effect their words and actions have on other people. ...

They focus more on results than on process. Anyone can follow the process, as the old saying goes, but it takes leadership to know when to break from it. Reverse leaders don't break rules simply to be rebellious. They break them because they're focused on the outcomes rather than the process for producing outcomes. ...

They exhibit particularly high degrees of integrity. ...

They have deep professional expertise in at least one discipline vital to the organization. ...

They maintain an unswerving customer focus. [R]everse leaders ...tend to be found further down the organization and by extension closer to the customer. ... And such focus can have tremendous value to any organization, if properly recognized and encouraged.

Read it all here.

How Rotation Affects Operations

The Cadre: Thinking Outside the Box About How Rotation Affects Operations by Andrew Person at Tom Ricks' Best Defense.

After over a decade spent fighting in Afghanistan, American officers are still having their first cups of tea with key Afghan leaders in government, tribes, and villages. As I argue in a piece I wrote for the Small Wars Journal titled "Getting Past the First Cup of Tea" (available on page 10 at this link), the Lazy Susan style rotation of American leadership in Afghanistan makes our mission impossible...

Read more about How Rotation Affects Operations

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