| Small Wars Journal

You can find the pre-publication version of a new article by Stephen Biddle, Jeffrey Friedman, and Jacob Shapiro on the decline in violence in Iraq in 2007 at this link.

ABSTRACT

Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many analysts credit the “surge,” or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Anbar Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course with the end of a wave of sectarian cleansing; still others credit an interaction between the surge and the Awakening. A combination of recently declassified data on violence at local levels combined with information gathered from seventy structured interviews with coalition participants enables a systematic test of these claims. These data show little support for the cleansing thesis. Instead, a synergistic interaction between the surge and the Awakening was required: both were necessary; neither was sufficient. U.S. policy thus played an important role, but Iraq provides no evidence that similar methods will produce similar results elsewhere without local equivalents of the Sunni Awakening.

H/T Mike Few.

Read more about Testing the Surge: Why Did Violence Decline in Iraq in 2007?

Casebooks on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare

US Army Special Operations Command and Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory National Security Analysis Department have put together a useful reference for small wars students and practitioners entitled "Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare Volume II: 1962-2009." The resource is available for download in PDF format here. If you are wondering where Volume I is, that government document covers post-World War I insurgencies and revolutions up to 1962 and can be downloaded in PDF here. The original was published by the Special Operations Research Office at The American University in 1962.

Volume II is broken down by conceptual categories as can be seen by the table of contents:

I. REVOLUTION TO MODIFY THE TYPE OF GOVERNMENT........... 1

1. New People’s Army (NPA).............................................................5

2. Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC)..........39

3. Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path)............................................71

4. 1979 Iranian Revolution............................................................113

5. Frente Farabundo Martí Para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN)...151

6. Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA)................................195

II. REVOLUTION BASED ON IDENTITY OR ETHNIC ISSUES........ 229

7. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)...............................233

8. Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO): 1964–2009............277

9. Hutu–Tutsi Genocides...............................................................307

10. Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA): 1996–1999............................343

11. The Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA): 1969–2001...379

III. REVOLUTION TO DRIVE OUT A FOREIGN POWER.................. 423

12. Afghan Mujahidin: 1979–1989..................................................427

13. Viet Cong: 1954–1976................................................................459

14. Chechen Revolution: 1991–2002..............................................489

15. Hizbollah: 1982–2009................................................................525

16. Hizbul Mujahideen....................................................................569

IV. REVOLUTION BASED ON RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM.... 605

17. Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ)......................................................609

18. Taliban: 1994–2009....................................................................651

19. Al Qaeda: 1988–2001.................................................................685

V. REVOLUTION FOR MODERNIZATION OR REFORM................. 725

20. Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)....729

21. Revolutionary United Front (RUF)—Sierra Leone.................763

22. Orange Revolution of Ukraine: 2004–2005..............................801

23. Solidarity.....................................................................................825

The original was broken down regionally and included chapters on Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaya, Guatemala, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Cuba, Tunisia, Algeria, French Cameroon, Congo, Iraq x 2, Egypt, Iran, Sudan, Korea, China, Germany, Spain, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia.

This project has been the vision of Paul Tompkins, a retired Special Forces Warrant Officer who works in the USASOC G3 and has had the support of the senior Army SOF leadership (see forwards from LTG Mulholland and MG Sacolick). This is the first of several products that will be published on human factors In revolutions and insurgencies as well as undergrounds and auxiliaries.

"In a rare spare moment during a training exercise, the Operational Detachment-Alpha (ODA) Team Sergeant took an old book down from the shelf and tossed it into the young Green Beret’s lap. “Read and learn.” The book on human factors considerations in insurgencies was already more than twenty years old and very out of vogue. But the younger sergeant soon became engrossed and took other forgotten revolution-related texts off the shelf, including the 1962 Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare, which described the organization of undergrounds and the motivations and behaviors of revolutionaries. He became a student of the history of unconventional warfare and soon championed its revival as a teaching subject for the US Army Special Forces. When his country faced pop-up resistance in Iraq and tenacious guerrilla bands in Afghanistan during the mid-2000s, his vision of modernizing the research and reintroducing it into standard education and training took hold.

This second volume owes its creation to the vision of that young Green Beret, Paul Tompkins, and to the challenge that his sergeant, Ed Brody, threw into his lap."

H/T to Dave Maxwell

9 July SWJ Roundup

Small Wars Journal Daily Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World – RCP

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Designated Major US Ally - VOA

US Grants Special Ally Status to Afghanistan - NYT

Clinton Declares Afghanistan a Major non-NATO Ally - WP

US, Pakistan, Afghanistan Call on Taliban to Join Reconciliation - VOA

Peace Talks Spawn Violent Taliban Splinter Groups - AP

$16 Billion Pledged to Afghanistan, With Caveat - NYT

International Donors Pledge $16bn in Aid to Afghanistan - WP

Donors Pledge $16bn in Afghan Aid - BBC

Afghanistan Promises to Fight Corruption as Donors Pledge Billions - VOA

Corruption in Afghanistan Still a Problem - WP

Afghan Official’s Big Job: Clean Up Banking Scandal - WP

Obama to Ask for Civilian Afghan Aid Through 2017 - S&S

US Troops Score Win Against IEDs in Afghanistan - AP

Roadside Bombs Kill Dozens in Afghanistan - CNN

Bombs, Clashes Kill 35 Including Seven NATO Soldiers - Reuters

US NATO Soldiers Killed by Roadside Bomb - BBC

NATO: 6 Service Members Killed in Afghanistan - AP

14 Afghan Civilians Die in Twin blasts - WP

Roadside Bomb Kills 5 Afghan Policemen - AP

Video: Taliban Shoot Woman in Public Execution as Men Cheer - CNN

In Video of Execution, Reign of Taliban Recalled - NYT

Taliban Publicly Execute Woman Near Kabul - Reuters

Locals Vow Revenge for Afghan Woman's Execution - Reuters

The Afghan Air War - NYT video

Is the Afghan War Doomed? - WP book review / opinion

Will Afghanistan and Pakistan Go to War? - FP / SWJ opinion

Paying the Price in Afghanistan - Commentary opinion

Pakistan

Clinton's 'Sorry' Unlikely to Stop Pakistan’s Support of Insurgents - S&S

Clinton Looks for Better US-Pakistani Cooperation - AP

Clinton Says US, Pakistan Ties Still Raise Tough Questions - Reuters

Hardline Islamists Lead Thousands in Protest Against NATO Supply Line - AP

Pakistan Shuns Physicist Linked to 'God Particle' - AP

Syria

UN Envoy Annan in Syria for Talks With Assad - VOA

Clinton Says Assad's Days Are Numbered - VOA

Clinton: With Defections, Syrian Regime's 'Days are Numbered' - CNN

Assad Says US 'Destabilizing Syria' - BBC

Syria's Assad Rejects Comparison With Egypt, Libya - AP

Syria's Assad Says Annan Peace Plan Must Not Fail - Reuters

Annan Arrives in Damascus, Syria Tests Missiles - Reuters

Syria Launches Large-Scale Military Exercises - VOA

Syrian Military Holds Exercises in Show of Force - AP

NATO Tying Turkey's Hands on Syria - TN opinion

Egypt

Morsi Orders Egyptian Parliament to Reconvene - VOA

Egypt’s President Orders Return of Parliament - NYT

Morsi Moves to Restore Islamist Parliament - WP

Egypt President Reinstates MPs - BBC

Egypt's President Reconvenes Dissolved Parliament - AP

Egypt's Generals Meet on Recall of Parliament - AP

Egypt Army Meets to Discuss Presidential Decree - Reuters

Egyptian Military Still a Revered Institution - WP

For Egypt’s Leaders, Jobs are First Priority - WP

Egypt's Morsi to Make Saudi Arabia His First Foreign Visit - VOA

Obama Invites Egypt's Islamist Leader to US - Reuters

A Do-over with Egypt - WP opinion

Is Morsi Confronting Egypt's Generals? - Time opinion

Libya

Coalition Led by Pro-Western Official Claims Lead in Libya - NYT

Libya’s Election Blow to Islamist Rise in Arab Spring Wake - AP

Libya's Jibril Calls for Grand Coalition - Reuters

Middle East

Arab Spring Highlights International Court Flaws - NYT

Book: Israeli Spies Behind Iran Assassinations - AP

Premier Vows Exemptions in Israel Draft Will Change - NYT

Israeli PM Promises Military Draft Reform After Protest - CNN

Israeli Likud Backs Conscript Law - BBC

Israel Moves to End Religious Military Exemptions - Reuters

Israel to Bring Remaining Ethiopian Jews by 2014 - AP

Palestinians: Abbas to Visit Iran for International Conference - AP

Bombing in Central Iraq Kills Six - BBC

Iran Says Diplomat Target of German Smear Campaign - AP

Saudi Police Arrest Prominent Shi'ite Muslim Cleric - Reuters

Saudi Officials Arrest Radical Shiite Cleric - AP

Influential Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Saud Dies - AP

Yemeni Soldiers Free Officer They Abducted - Reuters

Limits to Iran Sanctions - WP opinion

Message to Iraq: Pull Back from the Brink - JP opinion

United Nations

A Treaty on Conventional Arms - NYT editorial

US Department of Defense

Troops Driving Humvees for 20 More Years, Maker Says - SBT

Unit of Crashed Firefighting C-130 Quietly Handles Perilous Duties - S&S

Warrior Transition Unit’s Role Changes with Times - S&S

Navy Ramps Up Crackdown on Drug Use, Widens Testing - S&S

United States

Americans Have More Confidence in Military - OCR

Extreme Heat Continues in US - VOA

Unrelenting Heat Wave Bakes All in Its Reach - NYT

US Heatwave Leaves Dozens Dead - BBC

13 Minutes to Doomsday - WP editorial

Another Stab at the US Constitution - NYT opinion

Africa

Sudan Military Vows to Avenge Killings of 2 Government Officials - VOA

Sudan Opposition Figure Arrested - BBC

South Sudan Looks Ahead After Rough First Year - VOA

Blood and Oil Tinge South Sudan's First Birthday - Reuters

South Sudan Rebel, Now President, Takes on Poverty, Graft - Reuters

Timeline: South Sudan-Born Out of Conflict - Reuters

Gunmen Strike Nigeria Towns, Killing Dozens - AP

Nigeria Officials Killed at Funeral - BBC

Nigeria Senator Killed at Mass Burial After Ethnic Clash - Reuters

Congo Rebels Seize Eastern Town After Army Flees - AP

DR Congo Rebels Seize Key Town - BBC

Congo Rebels Seize Strategic Eastern Town - Reuters

Mali’s Tomb Raiders - NYT opinion

Americas

Mexican Electoral Officials Confirm Pena Nieto Win - Reuters

Mexicans Protest Over Presidential Poll Winner - BBC

DEA Agents Killed Pilot of Drug Flight in Honduras - AP

Venezuela: Chavez Rivals Should Not Campaign in Slums - AP

Cuba's Raul Castro Welcomed to Vietnam - AP

Asia Pacific / Central

Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel the Rivalry With China - NYT

China's Premier Warns of Further Economic Slowdown - AP

China Pollution Protest Ends, but Suspicion of Government High - Reuters

S. Korea: US General Apologizes For Dispute In Seoul - NYT

Rights Groups Urge Release of ASEAN Declaration - VOA

Violence, Threats Rise as Malaysia Election Nears - Reuters

Burma: Many Fear Completion of Stalled Dam Project - WP

Ruling Party Wins E. Timor Poll - VOA

East Timor PM Heads for Poll Win - BBC

Europe

Russian Flood Death Toll Hits 150; Putin Orders Investigation - VOA

Russia: Putin Tours Flooded Region, Questions of Negligence Arise - NYT

Putin Orders Probe Into Russia Flood Deaths - AP

France, Germany Mark Postwar Reconciliation Amid Divisions - VOA

Germany and France Celebrate Their Bond - NYT

Germany, France Urge Closer European Unity - AP

Romania Rocked by Political Turmoil - VOA

Greek Government Wins Confidence Vote - AP

Greek Government Wins Confidence Vote, Battles Loom - Reuters

Europe’s Missing Union - NYT opinion

South Asia

Flood Toll Rises, Damage Mounts in Northeast India - AP

Read more about 9 July SWJ Roundup

CJCS: Let's Continue the Dialogue & Keep Sharing

Via CJCS General Dempsey's Facebook Page: "Thanks for sharing your favorite blogs and lectures this week! I saw several familiar names out there like Small Wars Journal, TED, our own DoDLive, and even blogs run by service members. These conversations contribute to our Profession of Arms and they help connect our military and civilian communities. Let's continue this dialogue and keep sharing!"

8 July SWJ Roundup

Small Wars Journal Daily Roundup

US Naval Institute Daily - USNI

Real Clear World – RCP

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Designated Major US Ally - VOA

US Grants Special Ally Status to Afghanistan - NYT

Clinton Declares Afghanistan a Major non-NATO Ally - WP

Afghanistan Made 'Major US Ally' - BBC

US Designates Afghanistan a Major Ally - CNN

Clinton Visits Kabul, Declares Afghanistan 'Major Ally' - TT

$16 Billion Pledged to Afghanistan, With Caveat - NYT

Donors Pledge $16bn in Afghan Aid - BBC

International Donors Pledging $16B in Afghan Aid - AP

Donors Offer $16 Billion Afghan Aid at Tokyo Conference - Reuters

Obama to Ask for Civilian Afghan Aid Through 2017 - AP

Corruption in Afghanistan Still a Problem - WP

Afghan Official’s Big Job: Clean Up Banking Scandal - WP

Peace Talks Spawn Violent Taliban Splinter Groups - AP

US Troops Score Win Against IEDs in Afghanistan - AP

14 Afghan Civilians Die in Twin blasts - WP

Roadside Bomb Kills 5 Afghan Policemen - AP

US Cozies Up to Outcast Uzbekistan for Afghan Role - AP

ISAF Commander Condemns Farah Rocket Attack - AFPS

Taliban Publicly Execute Woman Near Kabul - Reuters

Is the Afghan War Doomed? - WP book review / opinion

Will Afghanistan and Pakistan Go to War? - FP / SWJ opinion

Pakistan

Clinton's 'Sorry' Unlikely to Stop Pakistan’s Support of Insurgents - S&S

Clinton Looks for Better US-Pakistani Cooperation - AP

Clinton Says US, Pakistan Ties Still Raise Tough Questions - Reuters

Hardline Islamists Lead Thousands in Protest Against NATO Supply Line - AP

Pakistan: Gunmen Kill 18 at Roadside Restaurant - AP

Pakistan Drone Attack Kills 12 - BBC

Pakistan Police Foil Huge Artifact Smuggling Attempt - BBC

Reading Pakistan: By the Numbers - IBT opinion

Syria

Clinton: Syria Must End Violence to Avoid 'Catastrophic Assault' - Reuters

Syrian Defection Prompts Calls for Sanctions - VOA

DOD Officials Call Syrian General’s Defection, ‘Significant’ - AFPS

Pentagon Cheers Defection of Syrian General - AP

Clinton: Russia, China Blocking Progress on Syria 'Intolerable' - VOA

China Rejects US Criticism Involving Syria Conflict - VOA

A Young Syrian’s Evolution to a Revolutionary - NYT

Lebanon Hit by Deadly Syria Fire - BBC

Shells Fired From Syria Kill Lebanese - AP

Syria's Fighting Spills Into Lebanon, Five Killed - Reuters

Turkey Mourns 2 Pilots Downed by Syria - VOA

The Tide Turns Against Assad - TE editorial

Syria Options Dwindling - CNN opinion / analysis

Is Syria Unsolvable? - CNN opinion

Edging Closer to a Coup in Syria - TNI opinion

Russia Fears Islamist Takeover in Syria - NYT opinion

Fresh Hope for Ending Syria's Bloodbath - NYP opinion

Iran

Iran Says it Has Plan to Close Strait of Hormuz - AP

US: Iranian Dissident Group Must Complete Move From Iraqi Base - VOA

US Urges MEK to Relocate in Iraq - WP

Libya

Libyans Hold Emotional Multi-Party Election, First in 60 Years - VOA

Libya Holds Vote After 40 Years of Dictatorship - NYT

Libyans Flock to Historic Polls - BBC

Libyans Turn Out Big in Landmark Election - CNN

Excited Libyans Vote Hopefully, Remember Sacrifices - TT

Libyans Hold 1st Nationwide Vote in Decades - AP

Libyans Celebrate Free Vote Despite Violence - Reuters

Count Begins after Libya Election - BBC

Obama Hails Libya Elections as Democratic Milestone - Reuters

Clinton Hails Libyan Election, Pledges US Support - AP

Violence in Libya Underscores Struggles Ahead - WP

Discontent Rules in Cradle of Libya Revolution - Reuters

Libya Election Helicopter 'Shot' - BBC

Libyan Anti-Poll Protester Shot Dead in East - Reuters

'No Fair Trial' for Gaddafi's Son, Says Lawyer - BBC

Libya Takes Faltering Step Toward Democracy - TI editorial

Libya’s Milestone Election - WP opinion

Middle East / North Africa

Arab Spring Highlights International Court Flaws - NYT

Israeli Military Draft Pits Secular Jews vs. Ultra-Orthodox - AP

Israeli Protesters Demand Military Draft Reform - Reuters

Bombing in Central Iraq Kills Six - BBC

Yemen: 4 Killed at Southern Secessionist March - AP

Yemen on High Alert After al Qaeda Threatens Prison Break - CNN

Egypt President to Visit Saudi Arabia on 1st Foreign Trip - AP

Militarizing the Persian Gulf Won't Tame Iran - GN editorial

The Muslim Brotherhood's Long Game - FA opinion

Egypt, Improve on Women's Rights - CNN opinion

Europe's Right Wing Enters Mideast Peace - DS opinion

US Department of Defense

At Nellis AFB, Teaching the Shadowy Art of Cyber Warfare - LVS

The Drone Zone - NYT

Court Upholds Soldier's Conviction in 2008 Killing of Iraqi Civilian - TPO

Unprecedented Dual Engine Failure Caused April Hornet Crash - S&S

Wartime Remains of 6 US Airmen Recovered in Laos - S&S

United States

McChrystal Says it's Time to Bring Back the Draft - S&S

New Veteran Unemployment Falls in June, Hinting at Positive Trend - S&S

Franchising Making Comeback, with Veterans as Good Prospects - McClatchy

Is America the Moral Leader in the World? - CNN opinion

United Kingdom

Al-Qaeda Terror Suspect Caught at Olympics Site - TT

Seventh Arrest in Terror Probe - BBC

British Police Arrest Seven Terror Suspects - VOA

7th person Arrested in British Terrorism Probe - AP

N. Ireland Tensions Rise Over Bloody Sunday Probe - AP

US Court Rules IRA Interview Must be Given to PSNI - BBC

Norway's EU Example: An Option for Britain? - TT

Britain's Only EU Hope Lies Hidden in Lisbon - TT opinion

Africa

N. Nigeria City Fears Both Police Brutality and Boko Haram - VOA

S. Sudan Prepares for 1st Independence Anniversary - VOA

Sudanese Refugee Camp 'Horrific' - BBC

Malians Wonder What Another Summit Will Achieve - VOA

Mali Militants 'Recruit Children' - BBC

West African Heads Urge Mali to Act Over Militants - Reuters

ECOWAS Urges Mali Unity Cabinet - BBC

Zimbabwe: Mugabe Returns From Medical Checks in Singapore - Reuters

Mali: Libya’s Unintended Consequences - NYT opinion

Africa Foreign Aid: The Coffin-Maker Benchmark - NYT opinion

End the Suffering in the Sudans - CNN opinion

Mali’s Timbuktu Tomb Attack is Unacceptable - CNN opinion

Americas

Mexico Presidential Election: Obrador to Challenge Result in Court - BBC

Mexico City Mayoral Win is Seen as Show of the Left’s Strength - WP

Mexicans Protest over Poll Winner - BBC

Students March Against Mexico's Election Result - AP

Argentina Now a Drug Trafficking Destination - NYT

Bolivian Farmer Dies in Protests - BBC

Asia Pacific / Central

Japan's Government Eyes Buying Disputed Islands - AP

China Dismisses Japan Plan to Buy Disputed Islands - Reuters

Clinton Makes Effort to Rechannel Rivalry With China - NYT

China: Hong Kong Seizes 'Record' Cocaine Haul - BBC

China: $98m in Cocaine Seized in Hong Kong - CNN

China Boosts State Firms as Entrepreneurs Struggle - AP

Plans for S. Korean Naval Bases Moving Forward - S&S

Booming Southeast Asia in Quandary Over US-China Rivalry - Reuters

Philippine Economy Makes Gains - VOA

Philippine Rebels Free 3 Abducted Mining Employees - AP

Detained Burma Students Released - BBC

Activists Held by Burma Released - AP

East Timor in Key National Poll - BBC

A Lost Deal for South Korea and Japan - NYT editorial

Japan's Resurgent Militarism a Threat - KT editorial

China's Quest to Dominate the Seas - TNI opinion

China’s Inevitable Democracy - WP opinion

In China, Hong Kong Press Under Attack - CNN opinion

Europe

Romania President Impeached Amid EU, US Concern - AP

Romania Suspends Leader Basescu - BBC

Romania Under Fire After President Suspended - Reuters

Bosnia’s Sarajevo: Moving Forward Even as War Scars Remain - S&S

At Least 99 Dead in Russian Storms, Crude Oil Shipments Halted - VOA

Dozens Killed in Russia Flooding - CNN

103 Dead in Southern Russia Floods - AP

Russia's Putin Seeks Answers Over Deadly Floods - Reuters

Germany: Red Army Faction Militant Jailed - BBC

Germany: Ex-Red Army Faction Member Convicted in 1977 Killing - AP

France: Hollande Plans New 'Genocide Law' - BBC

Russia Approves 'NGO Agents' Bill - BBC

Sweden: WikiLeaks Assange Deadline for Extradition Looms - CNN

Russia: Putin Tightens the Screws - WP editorial

Why Greeks Know More About Politics than Americans - WP opinion

Cyprus vs. Cyprus - WP opinion

South Asia

Former Nepal King Wants to Return - BBC

India’s Blood-Stained Democracy - NYT opinion

Read more about 8 July SWJ Roundup

La Revue de Presse Juridique

Introducing the new blog La Revue de Presse Juridique.

The number of international humanitarian law issues facing public administrations and militaries calls for tailored information blogs. Last week, a new Website, La Revue de Presse Juridique, enriched the active law-related blogosphere. La Revue intends to develop dialogue and cooperation between researchers and officials engaged in international humanitarian law practice. Specifications offer both French and English-language news articles and academic research papers.

Read more about La Revue de Presse Juridique

This Week at War: The Next Afghan War

In my Foreign Policy column, I discuss the odds of the Afghan conflict mutating again, this time into an old-fashioned war between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Rather than winding down with the planned departure of NATO troops by 2014, the war in Afghanistan may just be undergoing a metamorphosis, as has happened many times since strife began there in the late 1960s. A slowly escalating old-fashioned war between Afghanistan and Pakistan may soon emerge, joining the internal insurgencies both of those governments are attempting to smother and pitting one state against the other. Cross-border sanctuaries and Islamabad's covert support to the Taliban are well-known features of the current violence. But as the Western military presence inside Afghanistan draws down, the trends leading to direct military escalation between Afghanistan and Pakistan are likely to continue.

The Afghan government will face an increasingly difficult security situation after 2014 and will need a new strategy if it is to survive. The number one security problem from Kabul's perspective is the continued presence of Taliban sanctuaries inside Pakistan, and the support the Afghan Taliban continues to receive from Pakistan's intelligence service. For a decade, U.S. and Afghan officials have pleaded with the Pakistani government to halt this support, to no avail. For Islamabad, groups like the Haqqani Network -- which specializes in periodic raids in downtown Kabul -- are proxy forces that Pakistan can use to keep Afghanistan weak and pliant.

After 2014, the Afghan army and police will bear nearly the full burden fending off the Haqqanis and other cross-border Taliban forces. Afghan military leaders are likely to conclude that they cannot reach a stable end-state by only parrying the Taliban's attacks. The only hope of ending the war on favorable terms is through offensive action against the Taliban's sanctuaries in Pakistan or action that inflicts pain on the leadership in Islamabad. If Kabul hopes to negotiate a settlement with Islamabad and the Taliban, it will have to acquire some leverage first. And that will come only after it has demonstrated a capacity to threaten the Taliban's sanctuaries and other assets inside Pakistan.

Initial trials of such incursions may have begun. Last week, the Pakistani government accused the Afghan National Army of a cross-border raid into the Upper Kurram District. Two Pakistani tribesmen were killed during a 90-minute gun battle. Although this particular incident may be more a case of hot pursuit rather than a deliberate attack, it also shows the Afghan army's willingness to step up its aggressiveness.

The Afghan government may also find it useful to employ the same tactics that Islamabad is using against Afghanistan. Pakistan has its own problem with Taliban insurgents, with these rebels using the Afghan side of the border as a sanctuary from Pakistani security forces. Indeed, in June, a Pakistani Taliban raiding party crossed from its Afghan sanctuary into Pakistan, captured 18 Pakistani soldiers, and videotaped the severed heads of 17 of these prisoners. Pakistan's army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani subsequently complained to U.S. Marine Gen. John Allen, the coalition commander, and urged him to take action to control the Taliban sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.

It seems doubtful that the Pakistani Taliban finding haven in Afghanistan are agents of Afghanistan's intelligence service. But the Afghan government has likely concluded that it needs to obtain leverage over Pakistan if it is to obtain a satisfactory settlement to the war. If the Pakistani Taliban lurking in Afghanistan are a potential source of that leverage, it might be only a matter of time before Kabul makes contact with the Pakistani rebels.

Kayani probably realizes that there is as little chance of him getting a positive response from Allen and Karzai as there is of Pakistan doing anything meaningful about the Taliban problem that runs from east to west. That would explain why the Pakistani Army is taking matters into its own hands the old-fashioned way. Beginning in March, it fired a series of cross-border rocket barrages targeted at suspected Pakistani Taliban base camps in Afghanistan's Kunar province, resulting in the deaths of four civilians.

The Haqqani attacks in Kabul and against U.S. targets in eastern Afghanistan have compelled U.S. officials to consider cross-border special operations raids against Haqqani camps inside Pakistan. Given the military hardware currently in place, the intelligence on the Haqqanis the United States has developed, and the experience its special operations raiders have accumulated, U.S. forces are unlikely to ever get a better opportunity to hit the Haqqani Network and thereby create some incentives for a settlement. But the White House currently has a higher priority, namely disengaging from the conflict. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's apology to Pakistan for a cross-border "friendly fire" incident last November that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers has reopened the supply lines from Afghanistan to the port at Karachi, which the United States will need to extract its mountain of equipment by the end of 2014. The requirements of an orderly withdrawal trumped the risks of widening the war and further angering Islamabad.

Although the United States can withdraw from Afghanistan, the Afghans, at least the vast majority of them, cannot. They are stuck with the Haqqanis, Pakistan's intelligence service, and Islamabad's long-term interest in a weak Afghanistan. The only path to a reasonable settlement lies through offensive action inside Pakistan. Afghans will have to be willing to go where the U.S. military (drones excepted) have feared to tread.

Until the Afghan military can develop greater offensive punch, it will have to turn to proxy forces such as the Pakistani Taliban as tools to gain leverage over Islamabad. Should such proxies fail, Kabul will have to turn to an outside power to support its development of helicopter mobility and artillery and air support, essential elements of a capability to directly attack the sanctuaries and other objectives inside Pakistan.

When he signed the strategic partnership agreement pledging support to Afghanistan through 2024, it is unlikely that President Barack Obama had such a war in mind. But once Kabul becomes solely responsible for Afghanistan's security, it will undoubtedly turn to the United States first to help it develop the offensive capability it believes it will need. Should Washington demur, Kabul will call New Delhi, which could be eager to help.

After 2014, Pakistan should see the wisdom in wrapping up the remainder of al Qaeda and settling the conflict with Afghanistan. NATO's withdrawal will actually reduce Islamabad's leverage and expose it to more forms of pressure. Continuing the conflict will only encourage outside intervention.

If Islamabad decides to fight on after 2014, we should expect to see a messy, multi-level conflict much like the 18th century French and Indian War. That war featured insurgencies, proxy armies, old-fashioned nation-state war, and great power intervention from the far side of the world. A similarly complicated scenario may be headed for the Durand Line. The Afghan war may be about to mutate again -- policymakers should get ready for the change.