News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. ROK-US disagree on exercises; OPCON transition may be delayed

2. How the Kim dynasty has brainwashed North Koreans for generations

3. N. Korea seeks to have Mount Paekdu listed as UNESCO global geopark

4. The demystification of Kim Jong-un

5. North Korea warning: Mystery object at nuclear sub launch site leaves analysts baffled

6. Ministry of Veterans Tells Korean War Hero General Paik Sun-yup No Burial Plot at Seoul National Cemetery

7. Most recent Covid-19 patients were in their 20s and 30s

8. In virus-hit South Korea, AI monitors lonely elders

9. S. Korea to talk with U.S. on G-7 invitation: Cheong Wa Dae

10. 12 pillars of peaceful Korean history

11. South Korea is likely to emerge from coronavirus a strong beacon for democracy

12. A Letter From Journalist Seong Sang-hoon, Arrested by the Police, Now Released, on Suppression of Free Speech, Growing China's Influence & More in South Korea

13. Kim Dae-Jung Center Sues An Escapee Lee Ju-Seong for Libel for His Book on Gwangju (5.18) Uprising and North Korean Involvement; Ruling Party Plans 5.18 Gag Law

1. ROK-US disagree on exercises; OPCON transition may be delayed

The Korea Times · May 31, 2020

Here it is.  This is the friction in the alliance we do not need.  To restore readiness levels of pursue OPCON transition solely because President Moon wants it completed during his Administration.  This is been on a slow boil since the agreement that the OPCON transition would be conditions based.  But when President Moon came into office, he wanted it time based (during his tenure).  This conflict has never been resolved.  A conditions-based transition is meant to account for the changes and reality of the conditions.  We lost two major exercises in the spring due to the coronavirus crisis.  We have gradually reducing readiness since June of 2018 an in attempt to support diplomacy with north Korea (as an aside our cancelation, postponement, and modifications of exercises to influence Kim Jong-un's decision to denuclearize the north had one single benefit that we should understand.  It showed us that these changes have no effect on Kim Jong-un's decision making and he offered no reciprocal confidence building measures. We should realize the folly of sacrificing readiness in pursuit of north Korean unicorns!)

But we are now at a point where we could experience a significant setback in the alliance.  Are we going to sacrifice readiness to support President Moon's political agenda?  I hope the Korean people realize the level of danger to South Korea is going to increase significantly if we allow combined readiness to continue to decline.  And it should be obvious the lack of agreement on the SMA/burden sharing demands creates further friction in the alliance.  Are we heading into a perfect storm?  And then there is the issue of the UN Command.  The recent investigation of the north Korean provocation (firing at the South Korean guard posts in the DMZ) did not sit well with the South Koreans. Koreans (now all in the north and growing in the South) want the UN Command to leave.  Some South Koreans think the US wants to use the UN Command as a "higher command” to control the ROK/US CFC after the OPCON transition.  That is an erroneous belief and cannot be done.  Anyone who thinks the UN Command will assume the lead in leading the forces if there are renewed hostilities simply does not understand the command relationships or the authority of the UN Command on the Korean peninsula.

Yes, I fear the perfect storm is on the near horizon.

2. How the Kim dynasty has brainwashed North Koreans for generations

New York Post · by Dana Kennedy · May 30, 2020

We need to understand north Korean propaganda and its narratives and their importance to the regime.

3. N. Korea seeks to have Mount Paekdu listed as UNESCO global geopark

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 31, 2020

Paektusan belongs to all Koreans despite it being hijacked for the north Korean narrative.

4. The demystification of Kim Jong-un

The Guardian · by Jonathan Bouquet · May 31, 2020

Yes, the Kim's cannot bend time and space.

5. North Korea warning: Mystery object at nuclear sub launch site leaves analysts baffled

Express · by Ciaran McGrath · May 31, 2020

Although this specific object may be a mystery there should be no doubt the regime seeks to develop and deploy an SLBM system to have a second-strike capability.  And this is another indication of the regime's intention to never give up its nuclear weapons program.  One correction on the title to the article.  The north has no nuclear power submarines (that we now of!).  And it has not yet perfected (and shown us) the ability to launch a nuclear weapon from a submarine (the operative word being "yet").

6. Ministry of Veterans Tells Korean War Hero General Paik Sun-yup No Burial Plot at Seoul National Cemetery

eastasiaresearch.org · by Dr. Tara O · May 30, 2020

This is very painful to read.  I hope the Moon administration fixes this.  Gen Paik is a Korean national hero.  This is really shameful.

7. Most recent Covid-19 patients were in their 20s and 30s

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Hmmm.... I thought it only affects old people with underlying conditions.

8. In virus-hit South Korea, AI monitors lonely elders

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Interesting concept.  And yes, this does create civil liberties concerns (with examples in the article - and not the comment companies will have an endless thirst for data). But on the other hand, could help to protect the lonely elderly.

9. S. Korea to talk with U.S. on G-7 invitation: Cheong Wa Dae

en.yna.co.kr · by 김보람 · May 31, 2020

A sign of respect for South Korea and its economic potential. I am afraid this gesture is not going to significantly help reduce the friction in the alliance.

10. 12 pillars of peaceful Korean history

The Korea Times · May 31, 2020

A short and interesting perspective on some Korean history.

11. South Korea is likely to emerge from coronavirus a strong beacon for democracy

ABC.net.au · May 30, 2020

A view from Australia.  There are many Korean conservatives who would disagree with this. But I do hope that the headline does come true.  The people have to decide.

12. A Letter From Journalist Seong Sang-hoon, Arrested by the Police, Now Released, on Suppression of Free Speech, Growing China's Influence & More in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · by Dr. Tara O · May 30, 2020

A highly critical letter.  It thanks two Americans who are voices of democracy for South Korea and highlights what some Koreans perceive as threats to democracy not only from within but also from China.  It details the personal experience of a journalist.  You do not read this kind of information in the US press and rarely in the English language Korean press, so most Americans are unaware of these issues unless they follow the writings of Dr. Tara O and Gordon Chang.

13. Kim Dae-Jung Center Sues An Escapee Lee Ju-Seong for Libel for His Book on Gwangju (5.18) Uprising and North Korean Involvement; Ruling Party Plans 5.18 Gag Law

eastasiaresearch.org · by Tara O · May 28, 2020

This provides an alternate view of Kwangu and what happens to those who oppose the current narrative and what happens when an escapee from north Korea provides his views.  People like Tim Shorrock and other north Korean apologists and the current administration discount any involvement by the north.  This exhibits a lack of understanding of the mission and activities of the north's United Front Department (Overt actions against the South and support to parties who are favorable to the north) and the 225th Bureau (covert action against the South by creating and supporting political opposition to the ROKG).

Yes, such an admission of north Korean support would seem to undermine the perceived legitimacy of the South's democracy movement as well as oppose the current administration's narrative.  But it does not have to.  The democracy movement was legitimate and did bring democracy to the South in 1987 and 1993 (first election of a civilian President).  The north's efforts actually failed in 1987 and 1993.  The north certainly did not want democracy to grow.  It wanted to subvert the Korean government and Korean society; the South Koreans were successful in bring a strong democracy to the South.  Of course, if you believe the north took a long term view the current divisions in South Korea may yet successfully subvert the South achieving a key north Korean objective.

"History shows us that wars of this nature are routinely "won" by the indigenous forces supported by a well established, flat network of supporters, fighters and auxiliary. A disciplined, centralized command and control system coupled with a decentralized arm of execution and multiple means of support are their means for achieving a well understood political end state. This method has generally proven successful globally as long as the leadership is rapidly adaptable to changes on the multitude of global, regional, and tactical battlefields in which they operate." 

- LTG (RET) David Fridovich 

"I personally measure success in terms of the contribution an individual makes to her or his fellow human beings."

-Margaret Mead

"To tend, unfailingly, unflinchingly, towards a goal is the secret of success. But success? What exactly is success? For me it is to be found not in applause, but in the satisfaction of feeling that one is realizing one's ideal."

-Anna Pavlova

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. Analysis | 'Deepfakes' are here. These deceptive videos erode trust in all news media.

2. US government is funding website spreading Covid-19 disinformation

3. Lessons From Operation "Denver," the KGB's Massive AIDS Disinformation Campaign

4.  Army Withdraws Nomination for Officer Involved in Deadly Niger Ambush

5. Special forces thwart cyber attack as hackers spread fake news to damage US-Polish relations

6. Trump Cuts U.S. Ties With World Health Organization Amid Pandemic

7. The United States needs the World Trade Organization

8. The Age of Magic Money: Can Endless Spending Prevent Economic Calamity?

9. Iran Just Flashed a Glimpse of a New Mini-Submarine

10. U.S. eyes use of security brigade in Tunisia amid Russia concerns

11. An Embattled Trump Unveils a New China Policy

12. Beyond Hong Kong, an Emboldened Xi Jinping Pushes the Boundaries

13. Troll farms from Macedonia and the Philippines pushed coronavirus disinformation on Facebook

14. Some options open to Trump in response to Hong Kong crisis

15. Navy SEAL who oversaw the Osama bin Laden raid warns that 'Batman and Superman are not coming' in a speech advising college graduates to become their own heroes

1. Analysis | 'Deepfakes' are here. These deceptive videos erode trust in all news media.

The Washington Post · by Cristian Vaccari and Andrew Chadwick

I suppose as we try to develop habits of cyber hygiene as part of a cyber civil defense mindset, we should include education on deep fakes. 

I know this is controversial to some of the tribal segments of our population, but we need to work to protect the legitimacy of the fourth estate.  The press and media are key democracy, informing the electorate, and holding political leaders accountable. If deep fakes erode that trust if is going to harm democracy. (Of course, many will argue the press has damaged its own credibility and while that argument may be correct, I ask what are we going to do without a free and open press even if it does have its biases?  Do we think we should get all our news in the echo chambers of social media?)

2. US government is funding website spreading Covid-19 disinformation

The Guardian · by Stephanie Kirchgaessner · May 28, 2020

Oops. Of course, we can and must ask if this report is accurate.  But some of the accusations below do comport with the political views of some parties in the US.

On the other hand, this indicates how difficult it is working with indigenous elements on any level.  We can be duped and taken for a ride.  Many indigenous elements learn how to play our system (and play it better than Americans).  We have diplomats and civil servants who are trying hard to promote democracy and work with various organizations in target countries to do try to do that.  This is hard work.  This gets to an oversight process.  Is there a mechanism to review the products these organizations are producing with our grants and if they are contrary to the mission, rules, and our interests is there a process to revoke the grant?  I recall some grants in some countries that were provided to groups who do not administer them effectively but there was no process to revoke them.  And even worse some of those grants were the result of Congressional earmarks (when we had them) specifically for certain organizations.

3. Lessons From Operation "Denver," the KGB's Massive AIDS Disinformation Campaign

thereader.mitpress.mit.edu · by Donna J. Drucker · May 26, 2020

An important case study in disinformation.  We still have a lot to learn and there is history to educate and inform us.

What is sad about this is that many of these techniques are being employed today around the COVID 19 crisis.

4. Army Withdraws Nomination for Officer Involved in Deadly Niger Ambush

The New York Times · by Helene Cooper · May 29, 2020

This was a long time coming but I think not unexpected.

5. Special forces thwart cyber attack as hackers spread fake news to damage US-Polish relations

thefirstnews.com

We should not be distracted by the title and the use of the term "special forces."  From my reading of the article it is the Polish special services who thwarted the attack.  But the article provides useful analysis of the Russian attack and some of the TTPs.

6. Trump Cuts U.S. Ties With World Health Organization Amid Pandemic

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer, Colum Lynch, Jack Detsch · May 29, 2020

I think this is a mistake.  International organizations are one of the battlefields where political warfare is being fought. We should not be ceding the battlefield to China.  This action seems to be in contravention to our new strategic approach to China the White House released on May 26.

This is from our new China strategy: "The United States will work with our robust network of allies and like-minded partners to resist attacks on our shared norms and values, within our own governance institutions, around the world, and in international organizations" https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf. 

We are not able to resist Chinese attacks on international organizations by withdrawing from those organizations. We need to compete with China in these organizations.  And we need to implement and execute the new strategy.

7. The United States needs the World Trade Organization

The Hill · by Kenneth A. Reinert, Opinion Contributor · May 29, 202

Again, I think it is a mistake to cede the political warfare battlefield (in this case the economic warfare battlefield) to China by withdrawing from international organizations.  It may make some of us feel good by picking up our marbles and going home in a huff but us acting out is not the way to effectively compete in Great Power Competition.

8. The Age of Magic Money: Can Endless Spending Prevent Economic Calamity?

Foreign Affairs · by Sebastian Mallaby · May 29, 2020

This is the key point that we must think deeply about: "The new era will present the biggest potential rewards-and also the greatest risks-to the United States. As the issuer of the world's most trusted financial assets, the United States will be able to use (and maybe abuse) the new financial powers most ambitiously. Thanks partly to the dollar's entrenched position as the world's reserve currency, the United States will be able to sustain an expansion in government spending on priorities as varied as scientific research, education, and national security. At the same time, the U.S. national debt will swell, and its management will depend crucially on the credibility of the Federal Reserve. In times of high national debt, U.S. presidents since Harry Truman have tried to subjugate the central bank. If the Fed loses its independence, the age of magic money could end in catastrophe."

9. Iran Just Flashed a Glimpse of a New Mini-Submarine

The National Interest · by Caleb Larson · May 29, 2020

When I look at the photo, I cannot help but think of the north Korean ISILC (semi-submersible) that they have been using for decades.  There is one sitting in the South Korean War Memorial that was captured in 1998 or 1999.  It is also similar to the semi-submersibles being used by the drug cartels in Latin American.

10. U.S. eyes use of security brigade in Tunisia amid Russia concerns

Reuters · by 2 Min Read · May 30, 2020

The right force for the right mission?  I cannot assess from this article alone because it really does not describe the mission and intent.  However, if the intent is to build a conventional force in Tunisia to defend against a possible Russian conventional attack from Libya the SFAB may very well be the right force for this mission.  Though I would hope there is also an Air Advisor unit to be deployed to help advise the Tunisian Air Force as well.

11. An Embattled Trump Unveils a New China Policy

The American Conservative – Curt Mills – May 29, 2020

Here is the link to the new strategy: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/U.S.-Strategic-Approach-to-The-Peoples-Republic-of-China-Report-5.20.20.pdf. 

It does not seem to be getting much media attention or analysis from pundits, scholars, and practitioners.

12. Beyond Hong Kong, an Emboldened Xi Jinping Pushes the Boundaries

Wall Street Journal - By Jeremy Page and Chun Han Wong - Updated May 29, 2020 6:29 pm ET

We are seeing the CCP strategy unfold before us.  Are we prepared to compete?  Are we prepared to execute our superior form of political warfare?

13. Troll farms from Macedonia and the Philippines pushed coronavirus disinformation on Facebook

NBC News · May 29, 2020

14. Some options open to Trump in response to Hong Kong crisis

in.reuters.com · Compiled by David Brunnstrom in Washington; Editing by Will Dunham

Just a few options.  I do think we can derive many options from the new White House strategic approach to China and all the US government agencies should be able to develop a substantial list of actions to support execution of the national strategy.

15. Navy SEAL who oversaw the Osama bin Laden raid warns that 'Batman and Superman are not coming' in a speech advising college graduates to become their own heroes

Business Insider · by David Choi

 "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." 

- Aristotle

"It's limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower." 

- Dominic Tierney

"A 1950 definition called doctrine 'the compilation of principles and theories applicable to a subject, which have been developed through experience or by theory, that represent the best available thought and indicate and guide but do not bind in practice. Doctrine is basically a truth, a fact, or a theory that can be defended by reason. Doctrine cannot replace clear thinking...under the circumstances prevailing."
- LTG John Cushman

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. S. Korea's daily COVID-19 tally drops below 40 amid push to contain logistics center cluster infection

2. Experts Warn of 2nd Wave of Coronavirus This Summer (Korea)

3. 2 USFK soldiers test positive for coronavirus; total infections at 30

4. N.K. newspaper belatedly reports on death of Army general

5. Elaborate cyberattack against North Korea human rights activist 

6.  North Korea accuses US of hurting its image with cyber threat warning

7. Kim Jong-un on brink: North Korean leader's crippling 'coup fears' revealed

8. Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant (Nam-chon Chemical Complex)

9. North Korean embassy hostel in Berlin locks its doors

10. Arcane Art of Kremlinology Remains Relevant for North Korea

11. Unusual Object at the Sinpo Secure Boat Basin 

12. North Korea Threatens to Punish Parents and Teachers for Teenage Sex

13. Assessing North Korea's COVID-19 Containment and Kim Jong-un's Political Challenges

14. North Korea says it supports China's measures on Hong Kong

15. Two North Korean defectors just got elected to South Korea's National Assembly - but are already fighting for their credibility

1. S. Korea's daily COVID-19 tally drops below 40 amid push to contain logistics center cluster infection

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 30, 2020

Again, are there lessons to be learned for US logistics centers (e.g., Amazon)?

2. Experts Warn of 2nd Wave of Coronavirus This Summer (Korea)

english.chosun.com - May 30, 2020 08:43

Unfortunately when we read that "experts warn" many will not heed them because people have become disillusioned with experts since some of the models forecasting numbers have not been borne out.  I am reminded of this Einstein quote and it is something that we should keep in mind.

"No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong."  - Albert Einstein

3. 2 USFK soldiers test positive for coronavirus; total infections at 30

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 30, 2020

This is the challenge of travel.  However, USFK has implemented very good testing and tracing procedures.  The question not answered in article is what is being done with the other passengers who were on the US charter flight to Korea?  I would imagine since it was a charter flight with probably all military affiliated personnel the military should have good control over them and ensure they are tested and quarantined as necessary.  I also wonder about tracing of these two soldiers.  Where did they come from and are officials able to coordinate with installations and localities where they embarked from. I am sure they are but it just strikes me that managing the pandemic is incredibly complex and the testing and especially tracing has to be time and manpower intensive.  I have a lot of respect for public health professionals and the processes and methods they employ to keep us healthy.

4. N.K. newspaper belatedly reports on death of Army general

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 30, 2020

I have to appeal to north Korean leadership experts.  I am sure north Korea has been completely transparent about the health, treatment, and death of this general (note sarcasm).  But what strikes me as unusual is the general's relatively young age to command 4th Corps. If he was 52 in 2018 that means he assumed command of 4th Corps at 47 years old.  That seems quite young for a north Korean corps commander.  However, we have read reports over the years that Kim has wanted to move the younger generations up the ranks to replace many of the old officials.  This appears to be an indication of that.  Unfortunately, it did not work out for RI or Kim.

Leadership Dynamics Under Kim Jong-un.  https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNK_Gause_NKHOC_FINAL.pdf. I think it is instructive to read about Ri's predecessor as 4th Corps commander.

5. Elaborate cyberattack against North Korea human rights activist

nknews.org · by Nils Weisensee · May 30, 2020

I know I provided links to reports at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea before but now I have to urge caution.  Our Executive Director (and a good friend) Greg Scarlatoiu is the target of a north Korean cyber attack.  This is one indication of the threat the regime feels when we focus on human rights. Human rights is a national security issue in addition to a moral imperative. 

These are specific warnings that we all must heed. This is also an indication that north Korean intelligence services are actively collecting (e.g., conducting espionage) on those who are a threat to the regime and then turning that intelligence into action to do harm.

The name of the file used as a lure was "No, you're the puppet_ why North Korea isn't a Chinese satellite _ NK News.pdf" - the headline of an NK News story by Andrei Lankov and Peter Ward published on May 14.

Scarlatoiu warned others working on North Korea to be careful and check the sender address of all emails, even if they knew the person who allegedly sent the email: "Exercise common sense. Change passwords regularly. Use two-step verification. Be very careful when opening links and attachments."

Researchers, diplomats, and journalists focused on North Korea are often targeted with sophisticated malware, a report by Google's Threat Analysis Group (TAG) warned in March.

6. North Korea accuses US of hurting its image with cyber threat warning

Jerusalem Post

I do not think Kim Jong-un needs any help damaging his image.  He does that quite well himself.  But Kim is very sensitive about his reputation.  We should keep in mind that as Vice Director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, Kim Yo-Jong (KJU's sister) has a main mission ensure the legitimacy, reputation, and image of KJU is protected and enhanced.  Here is a 2018 report from Mathew Ha and me on North Korea's All Purpose Sword. Although it is focused on cyber enabled economic warfare it provides analysis of the north's cyber activities. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2018/10/03/kim-jong-uns-all-purpose-sword/

7. Kim Jong-un on brink: North Korean leader's crippling 'coup fears' revealed

Express · by Charlie Bradley · May 29, 2020

There is no doubt that Kim is paranoid.  As Dr. Jung Pak always asks: Who does Kim Jong-un fear more; the US or the Korean people in the north?  (spoiler alert: It is the people he fears most).

North Korea (Kim Il-sung) designed the entire social classification system (Songbun) to prevent any resistance to Kim family regime rule.  I recommend reading Robert Collins' work at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) Marked for Life: Songbun North Korea's Social Classification System, https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNK_Songbun_Web.pdf. I also recommend his recent report on the OGD which provides important insights on how the regime works, about the most important organization in north Korea (the OGD) and how the regime denies human rights to keep Kim Jong-un in power:  North Korea's ORGANIZATION AND GUIDANCE DEPARTMENT: The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial. https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Collins_OGD_Web.pdf

But what is significant about this report (assuming it is accurate and we have to take every report coming out of north Korea with a grain of salt) is that because of this extreme fear north Korea can operate as a "normal" nation-state. It cannot act as a responsible member of the international community.  And it is this fear of a coup (and any political resistance) that drives all decision making by Kim Jong-un.

8. Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant (Nam-chon Chemical Complex)

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha · May 29, 2020

Another very clear indication the Kim family regime has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons.

9. North Korean embassy hostel in Berlin locks its doors

DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)

It has taken a long time to get this closed down. It has long been known to be a source of funds for the Kim family regime.

10. Arcane Art of Kremlinology Remains Relevant for North Korea

voanews.com - By Eunjung Cho - May 29, 2020 03:57 PM

By one of the most excellent Voice of America journalists, Eun Jung Cho. Reading the tea leaves in north Korea is probably harder than the Kremlin.  Important comments from some prominent Korea Watchers, Ambassador Vershbow, Andre Lankov, Ken Gause, Michael Madden, and Soo Kim.  It is still too early to know about Kim Jong-un's health status and if some of the speculation about his health problems was wrong.

11. Unusual Object at the Sinpo Secure Boat Basin (north Korea)

38north.org · by Jack Liu · May 29, 2020

Hmm ... what could the 16 meter linear object be?  In the past they have tested an SLBM from a partially submerged barge (and we see a barge in the imagery).  Just saying... I will leave it to the "Squints" (imagery analysts) and missile experts to assess.  I just do not have that type of knowledge (even though I once stayed at a Holiday Inn Express) so I can only speculate from my uninformed perch.

12. North Korea Threatens to Punish Parents and Teachers for Teenage Sex

rfa.org

Yet Kim Jong-un allegedly has a 2000 member "pleasure squad" made up of young women. Do as I say not as I do and blame foreign media.

13. Assessing North Korea's COVID-19 Containment and Kim Jong-un's Political Challenges

fpri.org · by @benjaminkatzeff

A good run down on the possibility of the coronavirus in north Korea.  The author concludes with the question of whether the declining conditions in north Korea will lead to any kind of popular resistance.   Here are my thoughts on the resistance potential (I do believe there is potential but when I wrote this paper in 2012 it had not reached that point and he regime's suppression mechanisms remained intact and strongly functioning). Is the North Korean Regime Rational and Why Don’t the North Korean People Rebel?  https://www.fpri.org/docs/media/201201.maxwell.nkorea.pdf

14. North Korea says it supports China's measures on Hong Kong

Reuters · May 29, 2020

And they probably say they could do it better.  They probably say the Chinese have not been tough enough.

15.  Two North Korean defectors just got elected to South Korea's National Assembly - but are already fighting for their credibility

theconversation.com · by Sarah A. Son

Yes, their understanding, beliefs about, and knowledge of north Korea does not fit the administration's narrative.  It is really sad because escapees (defectors) are so important to the future of the Korean peninsula. Sure  Ji Seong-ho made a terribly prediction about Kim Jong-un.  But that should not be what defines him. The fact that they have been elected in South should be an important part of an information and influence campaign because they are an example that can inspire and give hop to the people of the north. They also help to educate the Koreans in the north about a political process that represents the people.  They need to be treated with dignity and respect regardless of political party in the South.  They are representative symbols of unification on the peninsula.

 "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." 

- Aristotle

"It's limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower." 

- Dominic Tierney

"A 1950 definition called doctrine 'the compilation of principles and theories applicable to a subject, which have been developed through experience or by theory, that represent the best available thought and indicate and guide but do not bind in practice. Doctrine is basically a truth, a fact, or a theory that can be defended by reason. Doctrine cannot replace clear thinking...under the circumstances prevailing."
- LTG John Cushman

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. The NSA has a warning: Russia's most infamous hackers are still active

2. Trump's Social-Media Order Is a Gift to Disinformation Bots, Experts Say

3.  Army sends counternarcotics advisory team to Colombia

4.  China Escalates the Pandemic Propaganda War

5. Back to the Shadows: The Future Role of Special Ops

6. Inhofe, Reed back new military fund to confront China

7. America rethinks its strategy in the Wild West of cyberspace

8. We Should Never Lose Hope on Finding MIAs

9. 4 Times Former Green Berets Took on Extracurricular Work

10. Why dissolving the Afghan Local Police program troubles its American architects

11. Special Operations Command acknowledges that it has to change as AI is set to revolutionize war

12. Professional Military Education Needs More Creativity, Not More History

13. From Captain Queeg to Winston Churchill: Lessons in Leading Up

14. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative: Peace Through Strength in the Indo-Pacific

15. To Counter China, the U.S. Needs a More Disciplined Grand Strategy

1. The NSA has a warning: Russia's most infamous hackers are still active

NBC News · by Kevin CollierKevin Collier is a cybersecurity reporter based in New York City. · May 28, 2020

We ignore this threat to our peril. I think this election year we will be in a "360 degree cyber firefight" with attacks from all directions, Russia, China, Iran and perhaps even North Korea (if Kim Jong-un is upset with President Trump). And they will all be using different TTPs and have different objectives. And Mail-in paper ballots are looking pretty good right now.

2. Trump's Social-Media Order Is a Gift to Disinformation Bots, Experts Say

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Bots are a threat. Fake news, disinformation, active measures, and psychological and media warfare are all threats. The government cannot protect us from all these threats and I doubt there will ever be an algorithm that will be able to detect and eliminate these threats. Certainly unenforceable legislation will not. The first line of defense is critical thinking Americans who can discern these threats and not allow themselves to be influenced and manipulated by them.

3.  Army sends counternarcotics advisory team to Colombia

upi.com · by Christen McCurdy · May 28, 2020

Hmmm... so is 7th SFG tapped out? It can no longer conduct this mission as part of its larger presence in Colombia? I wonder about the relationships that will have to be established. I hope all these advisors are fluent Spanish speakers. What little I know from my limited experience in Latin America is that you have to be able to speak Spanish well. I wonder if the Colombians will ask, "Where are the 7th Group guys we always worth with (and 20th Group as well)?"

Of course I am biased and sensitive to the SFABs assuming Special Forces roles and missions. But maybe in this case I am overreacting. The article says: "The team will focus on logistics, services and intelligence capability directly supporting U.S.-Colombia counternarcotics collaboration and information sharing." Perhaps supporting US-Colombia collaboration means the SFABs will be advising the Colombians on logistics and intelligence in support of the USSF and DEA conducting counternarcotics operations as they have done for years.  Maybe we will use the right forces for the rights missions.

4.  China Escalates the Pandemic Propaganda War

defenseone.com · by The Atlantic

I do not think we can underestimate how important psychological warfare is to the PRC.  We should never forget for China (and Russia, Iran, and North Korea) politics is war by other means. They are conducting political warfare and leading with influence (and propaganda) is a component of political warfare. I know there are many pundits who do not want to attach war to this, but this is political warfare and I think Paul Smith described it best in 1990 in his NDU monograph.

5. Back to the Shadows: The Future Role of Special Ops

theepochtimes.com · by Simon Veazey · May 27, 2020

My 2 cents. In addition to the high end CT capabilities that we have raised to a high art form (the ability to capture or kill any high value target at the time and place of our choosing), I think SOF's real value and comparative advantages lie in what I call the two SOF "trinities:" These are the three broad missions of SOF: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare (political warfare is not a SOF mission, it is a national strategic mission to which SOF can contribute). The second is the comparative advantage of SOF: governance, influence, and support to indigenous forces and populations. The is what the majority of the special operations forces should be focusing on, especially the Special Forces, Psychological Operations forces, and the Civil Affairs forces which together are the largest operational elements in SOF.

And regarding the correction at the bottom of the page: "This article has been updated to correct the fact that it incorrectly referred to the Air Force special forces as Rangers, which are in fact Army special forces."  I love my Ranger brethren, but they are not Army special forces and I think they would be insulted to be called that. I know the journalistic generic term is special forces and is used to refer to all kinds of forces that do not fall under the definition of conventional forces. But in the US military there is only one Army Special Forces who are also known as the Green Berets. All others (including the Green Berets) belong to the special operations forces. I am sure many will say that is splitting hairs, but it does mean something to SF, the Rangers, the SEALs, and all the other elements of SOF. Each have their own identity within the SOF community.

6. Inhofe, Reed back new military fund to confront China

Defense News · by Joe Gould, Aaron Mehta · May 28, 2020

Recall when we excited the "Asian Pivot" during the previous administration? We provided almost no resources to do and it was really a lip serve exercise. I think in the end it was going to raise the apportioned force level from 50% of US military forces to 55% but as "apportioned" forces that only meant they were earmarked for the Asia-Pacific and not stationed there. When it was the PACOM theater many used to describe the region as an economy of force theater - make sure nothing goes wrong because all the dual apportioned forces need to be in EUCOM or CENTCOM (and the priority has obviously long been on CENTCOM).

We have done a lot in the past couple years to substantively shift focus and priorities to INDOPACOM including the development of a new strategy and plans for a Free and Open INDOPACIFC.

It is good to see Congress step in with new funding.  

However, if we want to make further substantive changes and demonstrate our commitment to the region, I would offer some bold or at least radical ideas. This is from a paper I wrote to contribute to a project led by Patrick Cronin. Link below. The point of this is to more effectively employ our instruments national power in the region DIME-A - diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and Alliances.

One of the ways for the United States to look at its future in Northeast Asia is to revise its military, diplomatic, and economic structures in the region. In recent years, Washington has undertaken a pivot or rebalance to Asia, and under the current administration transformed the US Pacific Command into the US Indo-Pacific Command. The latter highlights the importance of the entire region, which has been codified in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy. However, the Asia-Pacific theater is large and complex. Perhaps it is time to reexamine the Unified Command Plan and consider reorganizing the structure and responsibilities in the theater. The United States should examine the feasibility of establishing a Northeast Asia Command as a new and separate combatant command. This is not a new idea, but it has never been sufficiently examined. Given the importance of the entire region and Northeast Asia within it, a separate combatant command with responsibility for Korea, Japan, Mongolia, Taiwan, China, and the Russian Far East would enhance US strategic capabilities. However, one argument against this idea will always come to the fore. Whenever a new set of boundaries is established, it will always create gaps and seams. This is especially true when competition with China is considered. But such a recommendation should not be discounted solely for that reason. The analysis may reveal other opportunities and, even if the proposal is not accepted, may reveal other ways to better support US strategic objectives.

While new ideas tend to focus on how to organize the military, the other instruments of power should also be considered. Perhaps it is time to think about creating a diplomatic organization in the region to coordinate all diplomatic activities and all information and influence activities to support US strategic objectives. A US Northeast Asia ambassador with the requisite supporting staff organization would provide the diplomatic and information effort necessary to synchronize the elements of national power. A third organization to support the economic instrument of power could be a Northeast Asia Economic Engagement Center. These three organizations would not only bring the strength of the US instruments of power to the region in a new and dynamic way; they would also send a powerful message of commitment, especially if they were located in the right places. The Northeast Asia Command could be located in Korea, the Northeast Asia ambassador in Japan, and the Northeast Asia Economic Engagement Center in Taiwan. Of course, this would create political challenges. However, such a proposal could also enhance the strength and power of the US alliance structure in the region and provide allies with effective tools to compete with the revisionist powers and defend against the rogue powers as outlined in the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. These are merely proposals and may not be at all feasible. However, it is time to creatively reexamine employment of the instruments of power to see if the United States can be more effective in achieving its strategic objectives and maintaining and strengthening its alliances in Northeast Asia.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Cronin_Pathways%20to%20Peace%20-%20Achieving%20the%20Stable%20Transformation%20of%20the%20Korean%20Peninsula.pdf#page=61

7. America rethinks its strategy in the Wild West of cyberspace

The Economist · May 30, 2020

The new frontier or the wild, wild west? This is another area that makes things different than the Cold War. Along with the US-PRC interdependence cyber space is a something that creates a unique problem set as well as opportunities for us.

And yes, the timing of the release of the Solarium Project was a stroke of bad luck as it came just before the coronavirus lockdown. We need to read and heed the report and take the recommendations for action and not just file it away in the ether or on a dusty bookshelf.

8. We Should Never Lose Hope on Finding MIAs

newsmax.com · by Robert Zapesochny · May 28, 2020

Never forget and never stop searching to bring them home.

9. 4 Times Former Green Berets Took on Extracurricular Work

military.com · by Blake Stilwell

Some positive and negative history here. I guess there is life after being a Green Beret and there is a (small) market for their skills! But most go on to do other things! But I do think anyone has done anything as well as Bull Simons (certainly when compared to the other three examples) His Iran operation was pretty amazing.

10. Why dissolving the Afghan Local Police program troubles its American architects

armytimes.com · by Howard Altman · May 27, 2020

Obviously, there has been a lot of controversy over these programs. They are an example of too little, too late. Hindsight is 20/20 but if these programs had been implemented in 2002 when many who were on the ground recommended them perhaps things would have turned out differently. Below is the concept that should have been employed in 2002. This is from our old Foreign Internal Defense doctrine. And from the beginning of the execution of remote area operations there has to be a plan to end the support.  

Remote area operations are operations undertaken in insurgent-controlled or contested areas to establish islands of popular support for the HN government and deny support to the insurgents. They differ from consolidation operations in that they are not designed to establish permanent HN government control over the area.

Remote areas may be populated by ethnic, religious, or other isolated minority groups. They may be in the interior of the HN or near border areas where major infiltration routes exist. 

Remote area operations normally involve the use of specially trained paramilitary or irregular forces. SF teams support remote area operations to interdict insurgent activity, destroy insurgent base areas in the remote area, and demonstrate that the HN government has not conceded control to the insurgents. They also collect and report information concerning insurgent intentions in more populated areas. In this case, SF teams advise and assist irregular HN forces operating in a manner similar to the insurgents themselves, but with access to superior combat support (CS) and combat service support (CSS) resources. 

11. Special Operations Command acknowledges that it has to change as AI is set to revolutionize war

connectingvets.radio.com · by Jack Murphy · May 28, 2020

This is an elegant and simple quote but one we must think deeply about: "Data is the new ammunition." We should always keep in mind that some "data" can only be collected through close personal relationships that can only take place face to face. I am not an iconoclast and I believe in the great potential AI but I also do not want SOF and in particular SF, PSYOP, and CA to lose some of the fundamental skills that are enduring despite the amount of AI employed. This is especially true when we talk about the comparative advantages of SOF in influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations. Again, I am all for maximizing the use of AI as long as we do not throw out the baby with the bathwater.

And regarding "revolutionizing war:" I am not sure how you revolutionize fear, honor, and interest, and passion, reason, and chance (though hopefully AI will help reduce the effects of chance, but it will never eliminate it).

12. Professional Military Education Needs More Creativity, Not More History

warontherocks.com · by Adam Lowther · May 28, 2020

I still think history is important. The authors recommend a framework for creativity. I do not think creativity can be developed at a single PME institution. I think we need to focus on helping those who are life long learners. I do not think you can be successful at strategy, policy, and operational art unless you have the traits of a life long learner.

My framework recommendation in 2012 is here. But upon re-reading my essay if I am not an iconoclast I suppose I can be accused of being a traditionalist.: https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/thoughts-on-professional-military-education-after-9-11-iraq-and-afghanistan-in-the-era-of-f

13. From Captain Queeg to Winston Churchill: Lessons in Leading Up

warontherocks.com · by Andrew Milburn · May 28, 2020

I recommend Andrew's new book.

14. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative: Peace Through Strength in the Indo-Pacific

warontherocks.com · by Sen. Jim Inhofe and Sen. Jack Reed · May 28, 2020

I wish we could get more Republican and Democratic legislators to work together on critical issues such as our strategy in Asia (oops I mean INDOPACIFIC). Hopefully Senators Inhofe and Reed will set the example to be emulated by their fellow Senators and by members of the House.

15. To Counter China, the U.S. Needs a More Disciplined Grand Strategy

realcleardefense.com · by Luke Nicastro

There are no George Kennans in the 21st Century. But on a less snarky note, strategy is hard and grand strategy is even harder.  In my opinion the discipline is in execution- constantly assessing the conditions and reexamining assumptions, making prudent changes to priorities and resource allocation and having a realistic understanding of time.

The author's main point about discipline is an examination and understand of core interests and peripheral interests and then ruthless prioritizing our core interests. The problem is that if we do not anticipate the future cutting away what may seem like a peripheral interest today might come back to harm our core interests in the future.

-----------

A military situation at its worst can inspire fighting men to perform at their best." 

- Marguerite Higgins, War in Korea: The Report of a Woman Combat Correspondent

"In Korea the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war."

- President Harry Truman

"East Asia has prospered since the end of the Vietnam War, and Northeast Asia has prospered since the end of the Korean War in a way that seems unimaginable when you think of the history of the first half of the century." 

- William C. Kirby 
 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. FDD | Kim Jong Un Returns to Preside Over Central Military Commission

2. U.S. Charges North Korea Officials With Illegally Transferring $2.5 Billion

3. North Korea fury: China's outrage with Kim Jong-un's state exposed

4.  U.S. brings massive N. Korean sanctions case, targeting state-owned bank and former government officials

5.  Husband and wife are executed after trying to flee North Korea

6. British envoys leave Pyongyang as embassy closes

7. Top U.S. military officer calls for readiness against N. Korea, other actors

8.  Replacement interceptor missiles brought onto THAAD base

9. N.K. food shortages not catastrophic this year despite coronavirus impact: U.S. monitor

10. The North Korean Economy: The Pandemic and North Korean Food Security

11. Standoffish North Korea discovers the limits of self-reliance

12. U.S. Experts Warn Seoul Against Slackening N.Korea Sanctions

13. Photo: N. Korean laborers in China are making protective suits

14. Downsizing USFK could help denuclearization talks, presidential advisor says

1. FDD | Kim Jong Un Returns to Preside Over Central Military Commission

fdd.org · by David Maxwell Senior Fellow, Mathew Ha Research Analyst· May 28, 2020

The latest from my colleague Mathew Ha and me.

2. U.S. Charges North Korea Officials With Illegally Transferring $2.5 Billion

WSJ · by Aruna Viswanatha and Ian Talley · Updated May 28, 2020 3:52 pm ET

A good step forward but does this go hard enough at both the north Koreans and the Chinese?  

Without reading the indictment (my colleague Mat Ha is analyzing and will write a brief about it) my SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) is that it does not. But it is a start. Also, although the majority of those indicted are north Korea, I wonder if this is a first poke in China's eye using the north Korean issue. So it may be we are not as concerned with enforcing north Korean sanctions but instead we are using those sanctions as part of our political warfare strategy versus China.

But it is still better than doing nothing. Some of my friends are already worried that Kim might respond to this with a missile/rocket test. Perhaps, but I am not convinced he will do one at least in the immediate future (but as with all things north Korea, I could be wrong).

From the paper Mat and I wrote today (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/05/28/kim-jong-un-military-commission/ ) we say that the North is sending the message they are not going to give up their nuclear program.  We have known that Treasury has long had a long list of entities to sanction. Perhaps we decided to pull the trigger after the Central Military Commission meeting the weekend and the resulting statements on increasing the regime's nuclear deterrent.  And there is the added bonus of impacting China as well.  

Some will argue this shows that we have not been doing enough on sanctions.

First, the self-imposed population and resources control measures by the North to prevent a COVID 19 outbreak have shut off most cross-border trade, both legal and illegal and this is having a greater impact than sanctions.

Second, sanctions are having a great effect but not in the conventional sense like everyone wants. The importance of the sanctions in place is that Kim Jong-un raised expectations of sanctions being lifted because he told his elite he could execute his "long con" and manipulate both Trump and Moon. He has failed to do so and this has put him under enormous internal pressure. Defectors tell me this is viewed as the biggest failure by any of the three Kims. The most important thing is not sanctions enforcement but not lifting sanctions. Even though sanctions evasion has allowed the flow of money and illicit goods that we have not tried hard to stop it is simply that Kim has failed to get sanctions lifted after promising to get it done that is the most important. Yes, it would make us feel good to try to hurt the regime more, but it is not the hurting of the regime that matters. The North has survived worse than sanctions. But it may not be able to survive Kim's failure (or he may not be able). The key point is that he has not been able to successfully execute his blackmail diplomacy strategy (the use of provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions). The nuclear program is a key part of that and arguably is more important than the use of nuclear weapons. But all the sacrifices the military and the Korean people in the north have made has not resulted in any significant benefits save for the belief that it is deterring a US attack. The payoff the elite and the military want is lifting of sanctions and they have not got it. This is why we should never lift sanctions (unless they actually do denuclearize but I am not holding my breath for that as long as the Kim family regime is in power).

We need to take a look at the broader strategy beyond sanctions and sanctions enforcement. We either provide the external pressure that generates sufficient internal pressure to cause Kim to change his calculus and if that does not come to fruition, we continue to work toward the long-term goal of solving the Korea question.

Also, there is a short video at the link.

3. North Korea fury: China's outrage with Kim Jong-un's state exposed

Express · by Josh Saunders · May 28, 2020

Although it goes against the conventional thinking of many westerners, there is no love between China and North Korea. This article is derived from Chris Mikul's 2019 book My Favourite Dictators. I have not read the book. This article covers some of the basics of the development of the cult following of Kim Il-sung. I wonder about the *$850 million for the gold statue though when it comes to honor the leaders of the regime, I am sure money is no object. (And I also think they mine about 3 tons of gold per year and have about 2000 metric tons gold reserves by some reports - though please not hold me to that - the key point is they have gold and they mine it so I suppose they could use it to build a 66 foot statue of Kim Il Sung).

4.  U.S. brings massive N. Korean sanctions case, targeting state-owned bank and former government officials

The Washington Post · by Spencer S. Hsu and Ellen Nakashima · May 28, 2020 at 4:37 pm EDT

5.  Husband and wife are executed after trying to flee North Korea

Daily Mail · by Emer Scully For Mailonline · May 28, 2020

And here we have another example of the true nature of the Kim family regime. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

We also need to keep in mind the conflict between north and South, and the North and almost everyone else, is an Ideological War. The Korean people must have a choice between these values:
The Shared ROK/US Values

• Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights

The Kim family regime (KFR) "values"

• Juche/Kimilsungism, Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power 

But the main point in this article is the regime is covering up the coronavirus crisis.

6. British envoys leave Pyongyang as embassy closes

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · May 28, 2020

I would love to be at the debriefing of these personnel. Is this an indication that there is an outbreak or is this just the effective employment of draconian population and resources control measures?

7. Top U.S. military officer calls for readiness against N. Korea, other actors

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · May 29, 2020

Don't take the eye off the ball amid the coronavirus crisis.

8.  Replacement interceptor missiles brought onto THAAD base

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 29, 2020

Yes, this surely upsets China as well as South Korean activists. China conducted an economic warfare campaign against the ROK until 2017 when President Moon allegedly agreed to Xi's demands that said there can be no new THAAD deployment, no participation by the ROK in an integrated missile defense system, and no trilateral alliance with the ROK, US, and Japan.

Because of the continued protests of activists the "base" the soldiers are living and working on remains quite primitive (unless the troops brought their golf clubs because it is a former golf course). Not the reference to power generation equipment to improve the living conditions. Because of the continued protests against THAAD it is difficult to resupply the base by ground and most of the supplies are brought in by air which is not the best way to resupply ground forces for the long term.

9. N.K. food shortages not catastrophic this year despite coronavirus impact: U.S. monitor

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 29, 2020

This is of course counter to what activists such as Women across the DMZ project. The coronavirus population and resources control measures are having a great effect on the North than all of the sanctions.

10. The North Korean Economy: The Pandemic and North Korean Food Security

38north.org · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · May 28, 2020

Note the analysis of markets and prices. Yes, the Korean people in the North live an extremely difficult life compared to almost every country in the world but their resilience is simply astounding. The North is receiving aid (primarily from China). But this is the key point: "The coming harvest will likely not be disastrously low, but will not be as good as it needs to be. Chronic food shortages are normal in North Korea, and much of the general public consumes far fewer calories than their daily need even in a good year. Several factors make projections and analyses particularly uncertain. The border closure related to COVID-19 makes imports of fertilizer, seeds and most likely food much more difficult and time consuming, as all cargo has to go through thorough inspections and sanitization. China may well shore up North Korea's food supply should the harvest turn out to be poor, although such aid may not reach those in greatest need."

The conclusion is titled "More Muddling through."  I believe Marcus Noland was one of the first to use the term muddle through for North Korea in his 1997 article in Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1997-07-01/why-north-korea-will-muddle-through.

11. Standoffish North Korea discovers the limits of self-reliance

The Economist· May 30, 2020

As noted, the effects of measures to defend against the coronavirus are more severe than sanctions. It has had a significant effect on the economy. I wonder if Kim is succumbing to the pressure of armed protestors on the steps of statehouses demanding reopening. Oh wait, North Korea does not have protestors and they certainly are not armed (please excuse the attempt at humor).

But the buried here is Chris Green's comment that the currency actions taken by the North "may be part of a longer-term strategy to restore state control over the economy." The North shut down a significant amount of market activity (legal and illegal) when it closed the border with China. It has banned foreign currency (most market activity is conducted in dollars, RMB, and euros. Kim may be trying to at least prevent the further growth of market activity and try to keep it at the level that was probably intended - as a safety valve for the population after the failure of the public distribution system during the Arduous March of the famine in 1994-1996.

12. U.S. Experts Warn Seoul Against Slackening N.Korea Sanctions

Chosunilbo · by Kim Myong-song · May 29, 2020

Important statements by William Newcomb, Joshua Stanton, and Michael O'Hanlon. The key point for South Korea: "Their tenor, according to a summary by Voice of America on Thursday, was remarkably similar -- namely that any attempts to engage the North in business are futile and will violate international sanctions. They also warned that the overtures could pose a very real legal risk for South Korean businesses, who could face punitive measures from the UN Security Council or America."

13. Photo: N. Korean laborers in China are making protective suits

dailynk.com · May 29, 2020

How many of these suits will end up in hospitals around the world? This article describes the slave labor of these Korean from the north in China. And those "minimum wages" do not all go to the worker or their family but instead it goes to support the Kim family regime (a mafia-like crime family cult).

14. Downsizing USFK could help denuclearization talks, presidential advisor says

donga.com · May 29, 2020

I wish you could hear me scream in pain over reading this BS from Moon Chung-in. Calling for downsizing USFK demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategic objectives.  

Two things: First, a downsizing of USFK will not cause the regime to denuclearize. Once the downsizing begins the regime will have the opposite reaction. It will double down on its blackmail diplomacy (the use of provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions) to cause a complete withdrawal. 

Second, the removal of US troops will remove the most important contribution to deterrence. There will be war if this happens. And I am not being hyperbolic here. Without US forces on the peninsula, Kim Jong-un will believe he has the correlation of forces and sufficient combat power to attack to unify the peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

Moon Chung-in's comments are pure fantasy and he is a danger to the ROK/US alliance.

-----------

A military situation at its worst can inspire fighting men to perform at their best." 

- Marguerite Higgins, War in Korea: The Report of a Woman Combat Correspondent

"In Korea the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war." -President Harry Truman

"East Asia has prospered since the end of the Vietnam War, and Northeast Asia has prospered since the end of the Korean War in a way that seems unimaginable when you think of the history of the first half of the century." 

- William C. Kirby 
 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. World war 3: Kim Jong-un boasts of ability to launch immediate nuclear attacks

2. N. Korea's nuclear weapons are immediately launchable, experts say

3. Bureau 39 - Kim's cash machine | This week on FOUR CORNERS

4. S. Korea 'well aware' of concerns over tensions amid Sino-U.S. rift: minister

5. Kim Yo Jong is reviewing North Korea's public bonds program

6. N. Korea's collective farms face difficulties obtaining needed supplies

7. Hong Kong national security law heightens South Korea's painful choice: US or China?

8. S. Korea, U.S. to hold videoconference on election day anti-virus measures

9.  UNC joins S. Korean training against illegal entry into Han River estuary

10. U.N. group asks N. Korea to determine whereabouts of 34 missing persons

11. South Korea spooked as new clusters discovered

12. Tim Shorrock spreads disinformation about biological warfare in Korea. That makes him a disinformant.

1. World war 3: Kim Jong-un boasts of ability to launch immediate nuclear attacks

Express · by John Varga · May 28, 2020

A provocative headline for sure. Mathew Ha and I will have an analysis piece published later today explaining our thoughts on the internal and external message from the CMC.

2. N. Korea's nuclear weapons are immediately launchable, experts say

donga.com · by Na-Ri Shin, Kyu-Jin Shin · Updated May 28, 2020 07:45 

The experts are reading a lot into the statements. "Launch on warning?"  That said I am not about to discount the regime's capabilities as we have a habit of underestimating them.  

3. Bureau 39 - Kim's cash machine | This week on FOUR CORNERS

tvblackbox.com.au · by Kevin Perry

Bureau (Office, Department, Room) 39 is arguably the most important organization for Kim Jong-un to generate funding for his royal court economy. There is a 30 second teaser video at the link. I am going to have to see if this Australian TV show can be found on the inter webs. https://tvblackbox.com.au/page/2020/05/28/bureau-39-kims-cash-machine-this-week-on-four-corners/?feed_id=3595

If I were King for a day, I would be tracking this organization round the world for a number of reasons (and hopefully our IC and others are doing so). Obviously, we want to interdict the flow of cash back to the regime. Members of this organization may also be susceptible to defection. Or rather than defect I would attempt to turn them though these are among some of the most loyal members of the regime.  If some could be turned it could be very useful for us to be able to work on interdiction (especially as they must constantly change TTPS to get around sanctions enforcement and international and local laws). Lastly, even if we did not of the above, we must have complete knowledge of this entire network because in times of regime instability and regime collapse this network would likely be able to broker deals for proliferation of WMD for profit (and survival). At the first confirmation regime collapse we need to work aggressively with our friends, partners, and allies to shut down this network completely.

4. S. Korea 'well aware' of concerns over tensions amid Sino-U.S. rift: minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · May 28, 2020

You cannot change geography. Korea will always be a shrimp among whales. (though I suppose it could increase its size by taking back Koguryo). 

5. Kim Yo Jong is reviewing North Korea's public bonds program

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · May 28, 2020 

Is Kim Yo-jong taking on increased responsibilities?  Is she being groomed for succession?

The rise of the donju class and the 400+ markets throughout the north could become one of the destabilizing elements in Korea. I think the regime believes it has to gain control of the economy through control of the currency. But the people seem to have little trust in the regime if only around 8% of the bonds have been sold. The people are not going to relinquish their foreign currency.

6. N. Korea's collective farms face difficulties obtaining needed supplies

dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · May 28, 2020

Again, note that the coronavirus crisis and the self-imposed border closing with China has been more damaging to the population than sanctions. The question is, has there been an outbreak in the North that is not being reported?

7. Hong Kong national security law heightens South Korea's painful choice: US or China?

SCMP · by Park Chan-kyong · May 27, 2020

This provides some analysis of the state of the ROK/US alliance which has already been complicated by the SMA/Burdensharing friction and perceived differences in approaches to north Korea. The "choice" for Korea between the PRC and the US further complicates things.

And here is the dilemma (I am not the only to cite the Korean proverb about shrimps and whales or the tightrope analogy). "We're caught in the middle like a shrimp between two fighting whales," said economist Choi Yang-oh at the Hyundai Economic Research Institute "We have to walk a tightrope between the US and China fighting for global hegemony. We can't afford to alienate either one of the two."

8. S. Korea, U.S. to hold videoconference on election day anti-virus measures

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 28, 2020

Can we learn from South Korea? I hope so: "Ahead of the U.S. election, NASS showed interest in South Korea's early voting process, social distancing protocols at polling stations and other anti-virus efforts, including fever checks, before voters cast ballots, according to the ministry." I do hope our election system is not penetrated by the Chinese. There are allegations that some South Korea systems had been penetrated and there are photos being passed around the internet with screen shots for voting software that say "follow the party" which is believed to be evidence of Chinese intrusion. (Though if I were the PRC/CCP I would demand more discipline from my hackers and not all them to do such things. Which leads to the question, if not the Chinese then who?

9. UNC joins S. Korean training against illegal entry into Han River estuary

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 28, 2020

10. U.N. group asks N. Korea to determine whereabouts of 34 missing persons

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 28, 2020

Just imagine if any of these abductees were still alive. What suffering they must have endured. 

11. South Korea spooked as new clusters discovered

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · May 28, 2020

12. Tim Shorrock spreads disinformation about biological warfare in Korea. That makes him a disinformant.

freekorea.us · by Joshua · May 27, 2020

From the always provocative Josh Stanton.  He analyzes the latest conspiracy theories from Tim Shorrock.

You have to ask yourself, why would the US military conduct biological warfare testing at Camp Humphreys. I suppose the coronavirus is a biological hazard and it makes sense to conduct bio-surveillance to prevent the outbreak and spread of the virus. And I suppose that includes testing people for symptoms. So the leap of Shorrock's logic is we must be conducting biological warfare testing?  (I have often written that we do need to treat the coronavirus as a rehearsal for a biological attack against us and we have to learn to. "fight through it." But Shorrock's analysis is from fantasy land.

-----------

"Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it." 

- Mark Twain 

"Heroism doesn't always happen in a burst of glory. Sometimes small triumphs and large hearts change the course of history."

- Mary Roach

"Foreknowledge cannot be gotten from ghosts and spirits, cannot be had by analogy, cannot be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of the enemy." 

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Last chance for US to counter China's rise

2. U.S. Officially Declares That Hong Kong Is No Longer Autonomous

3.  Pompeo tells Congress Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China

4. Facebook Executives Shut Down Efforts to Make the Site Less Divisive

5. Opinion | The Trump administration's China policies are ironically bolstering Beijing

6. President Trump expected to sign executive order about social media on Thursday

7. Revoking Hong Kong's special status is Trump's 'nuclear option' that could trigger irrevocable U.S.-China split, analysts warn

8. Gordon Chang: China's Economy Is In Deep Trouble

9. China's Largest Base Has Replicas Of Taiwan's Presidential Building, Eiffel Tower

10. Coronavirus Hasn't Killed the Global Balance of Power

11. Cyber security review may spell end for Huawei 5G deal

12. The Future of the Dollar: U.S. Financial Power Depends on Washington, Not Beijing

13. Coronavirus: The human cost of virus misinformation

14. PRC Wages Psychological Warfare Against the U.S. Military

15. Jared Diamond: lessons from a pandemic

16. Air Force Weaponizing Cargo Planes For All-Domain Ops: 'Bomb Bay In A Box'

17. Communist China's imperialist dreams of dividing the world

18. A Foreign General Is Helping to Lead US Army Europe. Other Commands Should Take Heed

19. Don Bendell: Green Berets, 'What were they, daddy?'

1. Last chance for US to counter China's rise

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · May 27, 2020

Grant Newsham makes this key point. Quote: "Beijing may indeed find itself in a stronger position, better able than ever to intimidate its neighbors and control more territory. But its intimidation tactics might finally coalesce serious opposition to its efforts to dominate the Asia-Pacific region.”

2.  U.S. Officially Declares That Hong Kong Is No Longer Autonomous

WSJ · by Jessica Donati · Updated May 27, 2020 6:57 pm ET 

We are at the proverbial inflection point with US-China relations.  I think this is a historic decision and action.  It will be interesting to map out the second and third order effects of this decision.  I think the assessment is correct.   China's actions mean Hong Kong no longer has autonomy and therefore our rules that treat it as autonomous are no longer valid.  

3.  Pompeo tells Congress Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China

Axios · by Zachary Basu

A useful initial summary of this important action.

4. Facebook Executives Shut Down Efforts to Make the Site Less Divisive

WSJ · by Jeff Horwitz and Deepa Seetharaman · May 26, 2020 11:38 am ET

It is a brave new world with social media.  Does social media cause the divisiveness in out country?  It is merely a platform?  Is there a technical or process solution to this problem?  Are we any more divided than in the past?  Do social media platforms merely amplify, expose,  and project the human biases (and as Arthur Brooks describes the contempt that is so prevalent in politics and culture expressed through social media.  It is not always the Russians and Chinese who are exploit social media to cause this divisiveness.  It is our own political parties and political groups who support their parties.  Although this excerpt from our National Security Strategy is focused on foreign influence, e.g., the Russians, it applied to our domestic groups who are using the same tactic, techniques, and procedures, as the Russians.  We would all do well to heed these words of President Trump (since he signed the NSS in 2017 these must be his words - though I know they were written by Nadia Schadlow and HR McMaster).  We need to start working on making our democracy resilient. 

5. Opinion | The Trump administration's China policies are ironically bolstering Beijing

The Washington Post · by John Pomfret · May 27, 2020 

This must be considered a contrarian view but he does offer some important recommendations on how to counter China.  Mr. Pomfret makes the key point here: "For more than 50 years, U.S. presidential administrations have been key to China's rise"

These words from our National Security Strategy explain the failed theory upon which our decades of policy was based.  This is the threat our NSS says we face.

6. President Trump expected to sign executive order about social media on Thursday

cnet.com · by Queenie Wong

This is going to be something. I wonder how this will pay out in Congress and the Courts.

7. Revoking Hong Kong's special status is Trump's 'nuclear option' that could trigger irrevocable U.S.-China split, analysts warn

marketwatch.com · by Chris Matthews

Here is the dire warning on what could happen.  Think about this: "More than 300 U.S. companies have regional headquarters in Hong Kong, according to a tally by Veda Partners, including 3M Co. MMM, +3.99%, Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.47%, Facebook Inc. FB, -1.31%, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +0.13% and Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.22%, to name a few."

8. Gordon Chang: China's Economy Is In Deep Trouble

nationalinterest.org · by Gordon G. Chang

Assuming Gordon is correct, what does this mean for CCP rule if the economy performs as badly as assessed?  Will this lead to domestic instability.

9. China's Largest Base Has Replicas Of Taiwan's Presidential Building, Eiffel Tower

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · May 27, 2020

I had to  include this because of the target of the Taiwanese Presidential Building. It reminds me the Chinese are similar to their north Korean. ally who built a replica of the South Korea Blue House for training. I do not ever recall US forces building such target complexes for national leadership targets in their palaces and presidential building.

From the imagery the training areas and target complexes look quite impressive. The author compares it to Ft Irwin and our National Training Center.  I would imagine many military forces would like to have facilities as large as these.  But I guess like everything else China does they "borrowed" it from somewhere else.  As one my students at the War College said the Chinese philosophy for R&D is steal to leap ahead.  I guess this applies to training development as well -copy and steal.

10. Coronavirus Hasn't Killed the Global Balance of Power

bloomberg.com · by Hal Brands

I think the last few months have been a wake-up call for many people. Who would have thought the coronavirus crisis would have accelerated the exposure of CCP strategy? Or was it as Professor brands says that we were just not paying attention as their strategy has long been quite transparent. 

11. Cyber security review may spell end for Huawei 5G deal

The Guardian · by Dan Sabbagh · May 24, 2020

I would say maybe Huawei would go out of business if enough of these deals are scuttled because of security concerns.  But the CCP will not allow that to happen.

12. The Future of the Dollar: U.S. Financial Power Depends on Washington, Not Beijing

Foreign Affairs · May 19, 2020

The dollar as the reserve currency is a critical national security issue.

13. Coronavirus: The human cost of virus misinformation

bbc.com · by Marianna Spring

This is a useful and important read. I see so much misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories on social media.  We really do need to defend ourselves against this. But we are so vulnerable to it especially when it comports with our world view as it did for some in this story.

14. PRC Wages Psychological Warfare Against the U.S. Military

realcleardefense.com · by Aaron Jensen

Why not?  I would expect nothing less.  Psychological warfare is after all one of China's three warfares (legal warfare and media/public opinion warfare as well)

15. Jared Diamond: lessons from a pandemic

Financial Times · by Jared Diamond · May 28, 2020

16. Air Force Weaponizing Cargo Planes For All-Domain Ops: 'Bomb Bay In A Box'

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens

Pretty cool capability.  I wonder if the air crews will be nicknaming the "CLEAVER" the "beaver" though they may be too young to know the meaning.

17. Communist China's imperialist dreams of dividing the world

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

I think it is interesting in the new White House Approach to China strategy it specifically calls out One Belt One Road (OBOR)  (rather than uses the latest Chinese incarnation of the term, BRI which I understand the Chinese do not like to use because it reinforces exactly what Cliff is discussing here). An important conclusion here: Quote: "Imperialism, according to Lenin, involves "the division of the world." It should now be obvious that China's Communist rulers intend to divide the world to their economic and political benefit, and the detriment of pretty much everyone else. BRI is a means to that end. Americans are just beginning to consider how to address the enormous challenge that poses."

18. A Foreign General Is Helping to Lead US Army Europe. Other Commands Should Take Heed

defenseone.com · by Elisabeth Braw Associate Fellow, RUSI Read bio

I think US Army Pacific (and probably INDOPACOM) has similar relationships, particularly with the Australians. Then we have the 2d Combined Infantry Division in Korea.  And of course there is the UN Command in Korea which is certainly multinational.  And finally the bilateral command of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command.  I am sure that will generate a lot of press when the future commander is a ROK four star general. I just hope the ROK and US military and both governments will have executed a thorough information campaign to educate the press, the  pundits, and the policymakers of what that means (and perhaps more importantly what it does not mean).

19. Don Bendell: Green Berets, 'What were they, daddy?'

fayobserver.com · by Don Bendell

This has been stirring a lot of controversy in the Special Forces Regiment, especially in the retired community.  I had thought the plans for the new JFK Special Warfare center and School had included a building for a new museum.  But perhaps I am mistake since I have not seen those plans in over 10 years.

But from what I understand this is a done deal and the decision has been made on the way forward.

-----------

"Loyalty to country ALWAYS. Loyalty to government, when it deserves it." 

- Mark Twain 

"Heroism doesn't always happen in a burst of glory. Sometimes small triumphs and large hearts change the course of history."

- Mary Roach

"Foreknowledge cannot be gotten from ghosts and spirits, cannot be had by analogy, cannot be found out by calculation. It must be obtained from people, people who know the conditions of the enemy." 

- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

SWJEd note: we cheated here. Posting on 5/28 night but back dating to 5/27 to not rock the chronological boat. Only the truly OCD will care, or do this in the first place.

1. U.S. nuclear forces are ready and deter all adversaries, including N. Korea: Pentagon official

2. Why do Americans worry about North Korea?

3.  Why Trump and Kim Are Stuck in a Waiting Game

4.  Why American-North Korean Relations Will Be Stuck in the Status Quo for Now

5.  Unification minister to visit Han River estuary to renew commitment to inter-Korean cooperation

6.  South Korea sees biggest jump in virus cases in seven weeks

7. Spike in South Korea virus cases shows perils of reopening

8. N.Korean Media Warn Against Corrupting Foreign Arts

9. Kim Jong-un 'hires body double over assassination fears' claims bizarre theory

10. North Korea: Defector's torture scars after attempts to flee Kim Jong-un regime exposed

11. North Koreans Living in the South are Developing a Political Voice

12. Expert calls for proposing video family reunions with N. Korea to mark 20th anniversary of summit

13. [Interview] Inter-Korean dialogue needs to restart when National Assembly convenes in June

14. Shaping South Korea's middle-power future

1. U.S. nuclear forces are ready and deter all adversaries, including N. Korea: Pentagon official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · May 27, 2020

Strategic reassurance. Strategic resolve.

2. Why do Americans worry about North Korea?

The Hill · by Doug Bandow, Opinion Contributor · May 25, 2020

This is a dangerous argument from Mr. Bandow. "Washington should return "defense" to its original meaning, defense of America rather than the rest of the world. Military guarantees to South Korea are dangerous, putting Americans at nuclear risk. It is well past time to focus on America's security."  

It is a vital US national interest to prevent war on the Korean peninsula. The presence of US forces deters a north Korean attack (conventional or nuclear). What happens on the Korean peninsula war, instability, or regime collapse, (whether US forces are present or not) will have global effects and directly affect the US.  Furthermore, our alliance structure is a critical instrument of US national power. We will have a hard time defending our homeland without our alliance structure. The isolationism that Mr. Bandow seeks will not result in a safe and secure America.

3.  Why Trump and Kim Are Stuck in a Waiting Game

The National Interest · by Francesca Frassineti · May 26, 2020

Yes, I think it is logical that neither side has any incentive to change course in 2020. What happens after November is surely election dependent. But the lack of flexibility charge (against both sides) is always troubling. I know it is not fashionable to say this but flexibility to most pundits only means one thing: the US must provide sanctions relief. But the US has made a number of attempts to have real negotiations, at the working level, and Kim Jong-un has avoided any work of any substance.  

But the regime has shown no flexibility and nowhere is this more evident than the negative answers to these questions. Actions speak louder than words.

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

4.  Why American-North Korean Relations Will Be Stuck in the Status Quo for Now

The National Interest · by Jacob Bogle · May 26, 2020

As the subtitle says Pyongyang's interests are clear.  Let me provide my summary of the regime's interests and strategy.

Kim Family Regime Strategy
* Vital Interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime
* Strategic Aim: Unification of the Peninsula

* Subversion, coercion, extortion, use of force

* Key Condition: Split the ROK/US Alliance

* US forces off the Peninsula

* "Divide to Conquer" - Divide the Alliance to conquer the ROK

* Desire: Recognition as nuclear power - negotiate SALT/START-like treaties
* Nuclear weapons key to deterrence - Hwang Jong Yop
* NK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons

* NK believes US will not attack a nation with nuclear weapons

North Korea Negotiating Strategy

1. Change relationship - Declaration of the end of the war (end of hostile US policy - i.e., Peace regime)
2. Sanctions relief (permanent removal)
3. Denuclearization of the South (end of alliance, removal of US troops, end of nuclear umbrella over ROK and Japan)
4. Then negotiate dismantlement of the north's and ICBM programs
* In Short:
    * NK: change relationship, build trust, then talk about denuclearizing (without doing so)
    * US: denuclearize the north, build trust, change relationship. 

5.  Unification minister to visit Han River estuary to renew commitment to inter-Korean cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 27, 2020

INTRA - Intra-Korean cooperation. If you focus on unification, then it is intra-Korea cooperation. If you want to remain divided with two countries, then it is inter-Korean cooperation (and yes I know most journalism guidelines call for use inter-Korean. 

Note the comments about the September 19th, 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. The agreement was intended to be a trust or confidence building framework.  despite it being very one sided with the ROK and the alliance providing the majority of confidence building measures the North's response and lack of implementation of other than the removal of a handful of guard posts and disarming the soldiers in the JSA (Panmunjom) shows the North does not negotiation in good faith and has no intention of seriously trying to reduce tensions. This is because a key element of North Korea strategy is blackmail diplomacy - the use of provocation and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions. We should look at the efforts of South Korea. We can be critical or suspicious of the Moon Administration's intent toward north Korea but if we look at each of its attempts at peace and reconciliation as a test of north Korean sincerity and intent, we have seen Kim fail the test time and time again. He has no intention of participating in any aspect of President Moon's vision other than to exploit where he can in support of his "long con" supported by his long-term political warfare strategy.

6.  South Korea sees biggest jump in virus cases in seven weeks

24matins.uk · May 27, 2020

The true test is how the South deals with these types of outbreaks.  This is a very difficult virus and it is not going to be easily subdued.

7. Spike in South Korea virus cases shows perils of reopening

The Washington Post · by Kim Tong-Hyung, Jill Lawless and Elaine Kurtenbach | AP

We should keep in mind that South Korea never really closed. But we can learn lessons from the South. This illustrates the importance of social distancing and proper protection and the most important rule: "don't do stupid s**t."  

No country can go back to the way it was before the coronavirus. However, we have to learn to live, work, and operate in these new conditions which are likely to persist for months if not years. Rather than arguing about opening or closing (or wearing masks or not wearing masks) we need to develop the most effective processes and procedures to be able to continue to survive and thrive in this new normal environment.

8. N.Korean Media Warn Against Corrupting Foreign Arts

english.chosun.com · May 27, 2020 11:24

It does not get any clearer than this. One of the major threats to the legitimacy and survival of the Kim family regime is information. This is why we need a comprehensive information and influence activities campaign. Please see our chapter on Information and influence activities in our report Maximum Pressure 2.0 A Plan for North Korea here: https://www.fdd.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/fdd-report-maximum-pressure-2-a-plan-for-north-korea.pdf

9. Kim Jong-un 'hires body double over assassination fears' claims bizarre theory

dailystar.co.uk · by Anthony Blair · May 26, 2020

Conspiracy theories do not just exist in the US or with Q-Anon. The article even says Kim Yo-jong is using a body double. Yes we can chuckle about this (I certainly do) but we should also realize this does illustrate the regime's paranoia and its focus on regime survival (not survival of north Korea, the nation-state, or the Korean people in the north -but survival of the regime). I would think there are a number of ways to take advantage of this paranoia.

The other issue is the use of a body double if in fact Kim becomes incapacitated or dies. Will this body double "buy time" to work through the transition process that will likely be complex if there is no designated successor?

10. North Korea: Defector's torture scars after attempts to flee Kim Jong-un regime exposed

Express · by Josh Saunders · May 26, 2020

We just cannot over-emphasize the evil nature of the Kim family regime. And we should never forget this: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

11. North Koreans Living in the South are Developing a Political Voice

bushcenter.org

This was published before the unfortunate statements from Ji and Thae. There remarks have sparked a lot of criticism and personal attacks. Some comments included that we should stop listening to escapees (defectors). Nothing could be more wrong. We need their insights, knowledge, and perspective. Predictions are a different story and predicting Kim Jong-un's death with such apparent certainty was an unfortunate and unforced error. I am sure Ji Seong-ho will not make that mistake again. They can and must play a vital role in the reunification process so we should not dwell on these mistakes.

This is very important on a number of levels. First that escapees (defectors) can participate in and play a role in the South Korean political process. Second, this sets an example for the Korean people living in the north.  It can educate them and give them hope. This needs to be part of an information and influence campaign and Ji and Thae (and other escapees) need to be used as key communicators providing information to the Korean people in the north.

12. Expert calls for proposing video family reunions with N. Korea to mark 20th anniversary of summit

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 27, 2020

This is just another example of the evil nature of the Kim family regime. These families have been separated only because of the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un and his father and grandfather. There is no excuse for the separation.

We should also recall the June 15th declaration in 2000 mentioned in the article. This declaration like so many others read well and sounds like it could make a difference regarding peace and prosperity on the Korean peninsula. But it is just another example in the seven decades history of the division of the peninsula and failed agreements on the north Korean sides and illustrates the true nature and the intent of the regime. Lastly, we should recall how the 2000 Summit came about with the north extorting the South to make it happen.

13. [Interview] Inter-Korean dialogue needs to restart when National Assembly convenes in June

hankyoreh · May 25, 2020 16:45 KST

Moon Chung-in is part of the blame America for north Korea crowd. He is no friend of the ROK/US alliance and what he says should be taken with a grain of salt. But we have to listen to what he says because he has the ear of President Moon. He has no understanding of the OPCON Transition. He says the ROK has "to recover wartime OPCON from the US" - this is pure BS - the ROK has co-equal operational control of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command right now and will have the same when the OPCON transition process is complete and there is a ROK general in command of the ROK/US CFC. On the other hand, I am somewhat happy to see he recognizes the importance of exercises to the OPCON transition process. He goes on to parrot Joseph Nye's viewpoint of a post-COVID world.

14. Shaping South Korea's middle-power future

eastasiaforum.org · by Leif-Eric Easley · May 27, 2020

South Korea is middle power and has the potential to be a great middle power. But as the author notes, it faces domestic (political polarization) and foreign (China and Japan) challenges.

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"Whatever it is that the government does, sensible Americans would prefer that the government does it to somebody else. This is the idea behind foreign policy." 

- P. J. O'Rourke 

"A strong, unwavering relationship between the U.S. and its allies Japan and South Korea is necessary for the national and economic security of all three countries." 

- Lois Frankel

"The more often a stupidity is repeated, the more it gets the appearance of wisdom." 

- Voltaire