News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.
1. S. Korea's daily COVID-19 tally drops below 40 amid push to contain logistics center cluster infection
2. Experts Warn of 2nd Wave of Coronavirus This Summer (Korea)
3. 2 USFK soldiers test positive for coronavirus; total infections at 30
4. N.K. newspaper belatedly reports on death of Army general
5. Elaborate cyberattack against North Korea human rights activist
6. North Korea accuses US of hurting its image with cyber threat warning
7. Kim Jong-un on brink: North Korean leader's crippling 'coup fears' revealed
8. Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant (Nam-chon Chemical Complex)
9. North Korean embassy hostel in Berlin locks its doors
10. Arcane Art of Kremlinology Remains Relevant for North Korea
11. Unusual Object at the Sinpo Secure Boat Basin
12. North Korea Threatens to Punish Parents and Teachers for Teenage Sex
13. Assessing North Korea's COVID-19 Containment and Kim Jong-un's Political Challenges
14. North Korea says it supports China's measures on Hong Kong
15. Two North Korean defectors just got elected to South Korea's National Assembly - but are already fighting for their credibility
1. S. Korea's daily COVID-19 tally drops below 40 amid push to contain logistics center cluster infection
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 30, 2020
Again, are there lessons to be learned for US logistics centers (e.g., Amazon)?
2. Experts Warn of 2nd Wave of Coronavirus This Summer (Korea)
english.chosun.com - May 30, 2020 08:43
Unfortunately when we read that "experts warn" many will not heed them because people have become disillusioned with experts since some of the models forecasting numbers have not been borne out. I am reminded of this Einstein quote and it is something that we should keep in mind.
"No amount of experimentation can ever prove me right; a single experiment can prove me wrong." - Albert Einstein
3. 2 USFK soldiers test positive for coronavirus; total infections at 30
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 30, 2020
This is the challenge of travel. However, USFK has implemented very good testing and tracing procedures. The question not answered in article is what is being done with the other passengers who were on the US charter flight to Korea? I would imagine since it was a charter flight with probably all military affiliated personnel the military should have good control over them and ensure they are tested and quarantined as necessary. I also wonder about tracing of these two soldiers. Where did they come from and are officials able to coordinate with installations and localities where they embarked from. I am sure they are but it just strikes me that managing the pandemic is incredibly complex and the testing and especially tracing has to be time and manpower intensive. I have a lot of respect for public health professionals and the processes and methods they employ to keep us healthy.
4. N.K. newspaper belatedly reports on death of Army general
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 30, 2020
I have to appeal to north Korean leadership experts. I am sure north Korea has been completely transparent about the health, treatment, and death of this general (note sarcasm). But what strikes me as unusual is the general's relatively young age to command 4th Corps. If he was 52 in 2018 that means he assumed command of 4th Corps at 47 years old. That seems quite young for a north Korean corps commander. However, we have read reports over the years that Kim has wanted to move the younger generations up the ranks to replace many of the old officials. This appears to be an indication of that. Unfortunately, it did not work out for RI or Kim.
Leadership Dynamics Under Kim Jong-un. https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNK_Gause_NKHOC_FINAL.pdf. I think it is instructive to read about Ri's predecessor as 4th Corps commander.
5. Elaborate cyberattack against North Korea human rights activist
nknews.org · by Nils Weisensee · May 30, 2020
I know I provided links to reports at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea before but now I have to urge caution. Our Executive Director (and a good friend) Greg Scarlatoiu is the target of a north Korean cyber attack. This is one indication of the threat the regime feels when we focus on human rights. Human rights is a national security issue in addition to a moral imperative.
These are specific warnings that we all must heed. This is also an indication that north Korean intelligence services are actively collecting (e.g., conducting espionage) on those who are a threat to the regime and then turning that intelligence into action to do harm.
The name of the file used as a lure was "No, you're the puppet_ why North Korea isn't a Chinese satellite _ NK News.pdf" - the headline of an NK News story by Andrei Lankov and Peter Ward published on May 14.
Scarlatoiu warned others working on North Korea to be careful and check the sender address of all emails, even if they knew the person who allegedly sent the email: "Exercise common sense. Change passwords regularly. Use two-step verification. Be very careful when opening links and attachments."
Researchers, diplomats, and journalists focused on North Korea are often targeted with sophisticated malware, a report by Google's Threat Analysis Group (TAG) warned in March.
6. North Korea accuses US of hurting its image with cyber threat warning
I do not think Kim Jong-un needs any help damaging his image. He does that quite well himself. But Kim is very sensitive about his reputation. We should keep in mind that as Vice Director of the Propaganda and Agitation Department, Kim Yo-Jong (KJU's sister) has a main mission ensure the legitimacy, reputation, and image of KJU is protected and enhanced. Here is a 2018 report from Mathew Ha and me on North Korea's All Purpose Sword. Although it is focused on cyber enabled economic warfare it provides analysis of the north's cyber activities. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2018/10/03/kim-jong-uns-all-purpose-sword/
7. Kim Jong-un on brink: North Korean leader's crippling 'coup fears' revealed
Express · by Charlie Bradley · May 29, 2020
There is no doubt that Kim is paranoid. As Dr. Jung Pak always asks: Who does Kim Jong-un fear more; the US or the Korean people in the north? (spoiler alert: It is the people he fears most).
North Korea (Kim Il-sung) designed the entire social classification system (Songbun) to prevent any resistance to Kim family regime rule. I recommend reading Robert Collins' work at the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) Marked for Life: Songbun North Korea's Social Classification System, https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/HRNK_Songbun_Web.pdf. I also recommend his recent report on the OGD which provides important insights on how the regime works, about the most important organization in north Korea (the OGD) and how the regime denies human rights to keep Kim Jong-un in power: North Korea's ORGANIZATION AND GUIDANCE DEPARTMENT: The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial. https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Collins_OGD_Web.pdf
But what is significant about this report (assuming it is accurate and we have to take every report coming out of north Korea with a grain of salt) is that because of this extreme fear north Korea can operate as a "normal" nation-state. It cannot act as a responsible member of the international community. And it is this fear of a coup (and any political resistance) that drives all decision making by Kim Jong-un.
8. Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant (Nam-chon Chemical Complex)
beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha · May 29, 2020
Another very clear indication the Kim family regime has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons.
9. North Korean embassy hostel in Berlin locks its doors
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
It has taken a long time to get this closed down. It has long been known to be a source of funds for the Kim family regime.
10. Arcane Art of Kremlinology Remains Relevant for North Korea
voanews.com - By Eunjung Cho - May 29, 2020 03:57 PM
By one of the most excellent Voice of America journalists, Eun Jung Cho. Reading the tea leaves in north Korea is probably harder than the Kremlin. Important comments from some prominent Korea Watchers, Ambassador Vershbow, Andre Lankov, Ken Gause, Michael Madden, and Soo Kim. It is still too early to know about Kim Jong-un's health status and if some of the speculation about his health problems was wrong.
11. Unusual Object at the Sinpo Secure Boat Basin (north Korea)
38north.org · by Jack Liu · May 29, 2020
Hmm ... what could the 16 meter linear object be? In the past they have tested an SLBM from a partially submerged barge (and we see a barge in the imagery). Just saying... I will leave it to the "Squints" (imagery analysts) and missile experts to assess. I just do not have that type of knowledge (even though I once stayed at a Holiday Inn Express) so I can only speculate from my uninformed perch.
12. North Korea Threatens to Punish Parents and Teachers for Teenage Sex
Yet Kim Jong-un allegedly has a 2000 member "pleasure squad" made up of young women. Do as I say not as I do and blame foreign media.
13. Assessing North Korea's COVID-19 Containment and Kim Jong-un's Political Challenges
fpri.org · by @benjaminkatzeff
A good run down on the possibility of the coronavirus in north Korea. The author concludes with the question of whether the declining conditions in north Korea will lead to any kind of popular resistance. Here are my thoughts on the resistance potential (I do believe there is potential but when I wrote this paper in 2012 it had not reached that point and he regime's suppression mechanisms remained intact and strongly functioning). Is the North Korean Regime Rational and Why Don’t the North Korean People Rebel? https://www.fpri.org/docs/media/201201.maxwell.nkorea.pdf
14. North Korea says it supports China's measures on Hong Kong
Reuters · May 29, 2020
And they probably say they could do it better. They probably say the Chinese have not been tough enough.
15. Two North Korean defectors just got elected to South Korea's National Assembly - but are already fighting for their credibility
theconversation.com · by Sarah A. Son
Yes, their understanding, beliefs about, and knowledge of north Korea does not fit the administration's narrative. It is really sad because escapees (defectors) are so important to the future of the Korean peninsula. Sure Ji Seong-ho made a terribly prediction about Kim Jong-un. But that should not be what defines him. The fact that they have been elected in South should be an important part of an information and influence campaign because they are an example that can inspire and give hop to the people of the north. They also help to educate the Koreans in the north about a political process that represents the people. They need to be treated with dignity and respect regardless of political party in the South. They are representative symbols of unification on the peninsula.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it."
- Aristotle
"It's limited war for Americans, and total war for those fighting Americans. The United States has more power; its foes have more willpower."
- Dominic Tierney
"A 1950 definition called doctrine 'the compilation of principles and theories applicable to a subject, which have been developed through experience or by theory, that represent the best available thought and indicate and guide but do not bind in practice. Doctrine is basically a truth, a fact, or a theory that can be defended by reason. Doctrine cannot replace clear thinking...under the circumstances prevailing."
- LTG John Cushman