5/27/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
1. Trump Wants Troops in Afghanistan Home by Election Day. The Pentagon Is Drawing Up Plans.
2. How the Taliban Outlasted a Superpower: Tenacity and Carnage
3. How the Pandemic Is Helping The Military Prep For World War III
4. Pentagon Reservation Plan for Resilience and 'Aligning With National Guidelines for Opening Up America Again'
5. FDD | The Fallout From China's Hong Kong Power Play
6. Liminal and conceptual envelopment: warfare in the age of dragons (Interview with Dave Kilcullen)
7. YouTube is deleting comments with two phrases that insult China's Communist Party
8. Trump's national security chief slashes staff to half of Obama levels
9. The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live
10. Let's get serious about US-Taiwan cybersecurity cooperation
11. Reflections on Reading Great Books with Colonels
12. China Will Use Its Digital Currency To Compete With The USD
13. Taiwan president pledges humanitarian relief for Hong Kongers
14. Russian fighters flown out of western Libya after Haftar retreat
15. Hackers have started targeting medical research. Here's why.
1. Trump Wants Troops in Afghanistan Home by Election Day. The Pentagon Is Drawing Up Plans.
The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · May 26, 2020
I feel for the planners in the Pentagon, Tampa, and Kabul. This plan and the process it goes through will be studied in PME institutions for years to come. I hope all the planners and commanders are keeping good notes. Books will be written about this.
2. How the Taliban Outlasted a Superpower: Tenacity and Carnage
The New York Times · by Mujib Mashal · May 26, 2020
Given the reports on POTUS direction to have US troop home prior to the November election seems to make this a reality.
All the sayings come to mind here. Americans have the watches and the Taliban has the time.
"You will kill ten of our men, and we will kill one of yours, and in the end it will be you who tires of it" Ho Chi Minh (1969)
The United States has a strategy based on arithmetic. They question the computers, add and subtract, extract square roots, and then go into action. But arithmetical strategy doesn't work here. If it did, they would already have exterminated us with their airplanes.
- Gen Vo Nguyen Giap
"The conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerilla wins if he does not lose." Henry Kissinger, Foreign Affairs, Jan 1969
Compare the article below with this 1990 NY Times article on General Giap. Giap Remembers by Stanley Karnow https://www.nytimes.com/1990/06/24/magazine/giap-remembers.html
3. How the Pandemic Is Helping The Military Prep For World War III
defenseone.com · by BY PATRICK TUCKERTECHNOLOGY EDITOR READ BIO
Fascinating (to me at least) though I suppose the big data experts consider this routine.
What I do not see in the article is whether this data was shared with the CDC and other appropriate agencies to include States and the White House task force. Are they using this now to help the national and state response? But I guess ESRI is the key component that supported this effort and already supports the national response.
4. Pentagon Reservation Plan for Resilience and 'Aligning With National Guidelines for Opening Up America Again'
MAY 26, 2020 defense.gov
The 7 page Pentagon plan is here. https://media.defense.gov/2020/May/26/2002305810/-1/-1/1/PENTAGON-RESERVATION-PLAN-FOR-RESILIENCE-AND-ALIGNING-WITH-NATIONAL-GUIDELINES-FOR-OPENING-UP-AMERICA-AGAIN.PDF
As I glanced through this plan what struck me is the Pentagon is probably the only US entity that is actually implementing the White House guidance for opening. No State, territory, or district seems to be following the White House guidance. Only the Pentagon (I am sure other agencies such as State, etc will follow the White House guidance as well. And as stated this is just for the Pentagon reservation. The real question is what is the guidance to the rest of the US military around the world?
The Pentagon will be the national control group. It will be interesting to see if the White House guidance proves to be the best and if so it will be a shame no one else followed it.
5. FDD | The Fallout From China's Hong Kong Power Play
fdd.org · by Craig Singleton Adjunct Fellow · May 26, 2020
From our newest colleague at FDD. It will be quite interesting to see if we change our relationship with Hong Kong and if businesses pull out because of the new law.
6. Liminal and conceptual envelopment: warfare in the age of dragons (Interview with Dave Kilcullen)
Octavian Manea’s SWJ interview with Dave Kilcullen,
I am enjoying Dave's new book. I think this is really a key point that we should be thinking deeply about: "Liminal means threshold. Liminal warfare is about threshold manipulation. It is a style of warfare that the Russians in particular have perfected, which is about riding the edge of observability, surfing the threshold of detectability so a lot of their activity is literally sub-liminal ("below the threshold" of perception), and we don't even notice what is happening."
7. YouTube is deleting comments with two phrases that insult China's Communist Party
The Verge · by James Vincent · May 26, 2020
These are the two phrases: "共匪" ("communist bandit") or "五毛" ("50-cent party"). Those must really be insulting to the communists. Since they call us "barbarians" maybe we should ask YouTube to ban those words coming out of China (note sarcasm).
8. Trump's national security chief slashes staff to half of Obama levels
New York Post · by Ebony Bowden · May 26, 2020
I suppose they are going for the Scowcroft model. Often less is more. I remember we took only about a dozen C-Team guys for the headquarters to the Philippines when we initially deployed (160 person force cap so we maximized our ODA numbers and our B-Teams (which also were small as well). But we had a very robust reach back capability to Okinawa. But I was very proud of the amount of work the small staff could do to command and control the operation. Not that that compares to the NSC but as I said often less is more.
9. The Coronavirus Is Deadliest Where Democrats Live
The New York Times · by Jennifer Medina · May 25, 2020
Fascinating analysis from the NY Times.
10. Let's get serious about US-Taiwan cybersecurity cooperation
Washington Examiner · by Mathew Ha · May 19, 2020
From my colleague, Mathew Ha.
11. Reflections on Reading Great Books with Colonels
warontherocks.com · by Jacqueline E. Whitt · May 25, 2020
All important books. I would also recommend reading Charles Hill's book Grand Strategies: Literature, Statecraft, and World Order. It is a fascinating survey of literature and its relationship to grand strategy and statecraft. I would also include General Mattis book Call Sign Chaos which also a survey of literature and history and their practical application to military operations. My only comment is we that we should be conducting this kind of seminar much earlier in the PME process. We should have to wait to be Colonels to experience this kind of intellectual challenge. The description of the program seems somewhat similar to my experience in SAMS (though I think the reading load was heavier!)
12. China Will Use Its Digital Currency To Compete With The USD
Forbes · by Roger Huang · May 25, 2020
China would like to break the world's dependence on the dollar. The dollar as the reserve currency is one of the most important national security concerns for the US. Without it we would not be able to sustain the massive debt we have taken on and the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency would break the US economy. Although I do not think digital currency will replace the dollar anytime soon, never say never and we need to remain vigilant in sustaining the dollar as the reserve currency.
13. Taiwan president pledges humanitarian relief for Hong Kongers
japantimes.co.jp · by Internal Submission · May 27, 2020
I would include copies of Gene Sharp's from Dictatorship to Democracy. https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf
14. Russian fighters flown out of western Libya after Haftar retreat
15. Hackers have started targeting medical research. Here's why.
Axios · by Zach Dorfman
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"Whatever it is that the government does, sensible Americans would prefer that the government does it to somebody else. This is the idea behind foreign policy."
- P. J. O'Rourke
"A strong, unwavering relationship between the U.S. and its allies Japan and South Korea is necessary for the national and economic security of all three countries."
- Lois Frankel
"The more often a stupidity is repeated, the more it gets the appearance of wisdom."
- Voltaire
20200526 News & Commentary – National Security
1. Mapping the China Debate
2. Israel rejects Chinese bid to build Sorek 2 amid pressure from the US
3. Josh Hawley Wants to Lead the New Cold War
4. They didn't die in combat, but they lived heroic lives. Remembering the military heroes who died by suicide
5. Iran's Propaganda Game Inside Iraq
6. How to Avoid a China-Led World Order
7. Beijing draws the line with Hong Kong
8. China's Weaker Yuan Fix Is the Real Cold War Salvo
9. China Just Crossed A Dangerous Line For Huawei: New 'Retaliatory Responses' Threatened
10. The U.S. should not 'indulge in fantasies' that China will cave in to pressure, think tank says
11. VPN demand in Hong Kong reveals a new fear: China weaponizing the Internet
12. He Died at War. The Pandemic Gave Me Time to Grieve.
13. By Air and Sea, Mercenaries Landed in Libya. Then the Plan Went South.
14. The Fight Against COVID-19: Bringing Home the Hard-Earned Lessons of Nearly Two Decades of War
15. Pentagon charts its own course on COVID-19, risking Trump's ire
16. Hong Kong's moment of truth - and China's
17. African-Americans Are Highly Visible in the Military, but Almost Invisible at the Top
1. Mapping the China Debate
By Ganesh Sitaraman, Tuesday, May 26, 2020, 9:00 AM, lawfareblog.com
A useful guide.
2. Israel rejects Chinese bid to build Sorek 2 amid pressure from the US
By LAHAV HARKOV, EYTAN HALON MAY 26, 2020 12:49 Jerusalem Post
An important step.
3. Josh Hawley Wants to Lead the New Cold War
spectator.org · by John Jiang
He has some radical ideas. I do not believe we should abandon international organizations. I believe they are part of the political warfare battlefield and we must be on our game to effectively compete to prevent Chinese domination of international institutions.
4. They didn't die in combat, but they lived heroic lives. Remembering the military heroes who died by suicide
CNN · by Brianna Keilar and Catherine Valentine, CNN
This is a powerful essay. We must remember our brothers and sisters we have lost to suicide.
5. Iran's Propaganda Game Inside Iraq
realcleardefense.com · by Caleb Weiss
Our adversaries believe in "leading with influence" and may or may not use kinetic operations in support of that influence. We need to understand their use of propaganda in order to effectively compete in this modern gray zone.
6. How to Avoid a China-Led World Order
National Review Online · by Seth J. Frantzman · May 25, 2020
7. Beijing draws the line with Hong Kong
japantimes.co.jp · by Brad Glosserman · May 25, 2020
8. China's Weaker Yuan Fix Is the Real Cold War Salvo
Bloomberg · by John Authers · May 26, 2020
This is one of the major differences with the original Cold War. the US and USSR did not have the economic linkages the US and the PRC do.
Graphics at the link. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-26/china-s-weaker-yuan-fix-is-the-real-cold-war-salvo
9. China Just Crossed A Dangerous Line For Huawei: New 'Retaliatory Responses' Threatened
Forbes · by Zak Doffman · May 26, 2020
10. The U.S. should not 'indulge in fantasies' that China will cave in to pressure, think tank says
CNBC · by Abigail Ng · May 26, 2020
11. VPN demand in Hong Kong reveals a new fear: China weaponizing the Internet
Fortune BY GRADY MCGREGOR May 26, 2020 6:05 AM EDT
Obviously this is another major difference with the first Cold War when there was not global internet. I hope tech companies will work on technology that can help the citizens of Hong Kong and oppressed people around the world. The internet is both a weapon and a threat for authoritarian regime.
VPN demand in Hong Kong reveals a new fear: China weaponizing the Internet
12. He Died at War. The Pandemic Gave Me Time to Grieve.
The New York Times · by Kelsey Baker · May 24, 2020
Another fascinating if not sad story to reflect upon.
13. By Air and Sea, Mercenaries Landed in Libya. Then the Plan Went South.
The New York Times · by Declan Walsh · May 25, 2020
A more detailed story on the Libya event. This one includes Eric Prince. The use of mercenaries by state and no-sate (corporations) is an important national security issue.
14. The Fight Against COVID-19: Bringing Home the Hard-Earned Lessons of Nearly Two Decades of War
mwi.usma.edu · by Brendan Gallagher · May 26, 202
The US military has provided many innovations for non-military problems and non-military application. I hope we can find appropriate lessons learned.
And of course this lesson is key though not exclusive to the military,
15. Pentagon charts its own course on COVID-19, risking Trump's ire
The Hill · by Ellen Mitchell · May 25, 2020
But the military has to. The military mission is no fail. The military by nature plans for the worst case. It cannot be guided by partisan politics and frankly the pandemic has become overly politicized in the US. And lastly the military needs to treat the pandemic as a rehearsal for a biological attack. It has to "fight through" this pandemic. And ideally it will learn lessons for the future that may help the civilian community but that would not likely be discovered in the civilian community because of the different focus. On the other hand the military does have to seek out best practices from the civilian community as well.
16. Hong Kong's moment of truth - and China's
The Hill · by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor · May 26, 2020
You can always count on Joe Bosco to provide some of the most provocative thinking on China.
17. African-Americans Are Highly Visible in the Military, but Almost Invisible at the Top
The New York Times · by Helene Cooper · May 25, 2020
We as a military need to take a hard look in the mirror. There is a lot to think about in this article. I have served with a number of those interviewed and I have tremendous respect for them.
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"The enemy of my enemy is also my enemy, can't have too many enemies."
- Maura Quint via Twitter
"When devils commit their biggest sins they put on their most heavenly face, as I do now."
-Iago in Othello by Shakespeare
"I don't underrate the value of military knowledge, but if men make war in slavish obedience to rules, they will fail."
- President Ulysses S. Grant
"The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."
- President Thomas Jefferson
5/26/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
1. U.S. Warns of 'Calibrated' Response to N.Korea's Nuke Activities
2. N. Korea should give up nuclear program, says Trump's advisor
3. New heavily-armed submarine enters service in North Korea
4. North's Kim heaps pressure on Trump to relax sanctions
5. UNC says it cannot determine whether N.K. started border gunfire accidentally
6. U.S. could build trust with North Korea by following South's lead: Brooks
7. Gov't to Push Ahead with Quixotic Cross-Border Projects (Korea)
8. An unidentified boat in the West Sea (Korea)
9. Between a rock and a hard place, Korea hedges bets
10. N. Korea distributes documents educating people about COVID-19
11. S. Korea, U.S. pushing for defense ministers' videoconference next month
12. Kim reappears promoting nuke deterrence
13. The way South Korea crushed its second wave is a warning to us all
14. S. Korea seeks law revision to bolster inter-Korean exchanges, cooperation
1. U.S. Warns of 'Calibrated' Response to N.Korea's Nuke Activities
english.chosun.com May 26, 2020 11:19
I am sure some will argue we are putting a foot on the path to a new "fire and fury." I think not but the burden is on Kim Jong-un. The US stands ready and willing to hold substantive negotiations on the denuclearization of north Korea. It is Kim who has refused to allow such negotiations to take place.
But we need to remember that Kim is playing his long con through his application of political warfare with Juche characteristics. He is still also responding to the internal pressure for his failure to get sanctions relief. We have to play our long game and that must be done through our superior form of political warfare which requires the application of all element of national power (DIME-A, including Alliances) to achieve our objectives short of war.
But this is the key message for Kim Jong-un (and our allies). Strategic reassurance and strategic resolve. Emphasis on "if deterrence fails."
2. N. Korea should give up nuclear program, says Trump's advisor
donga.com Posted May. 26, 2020 07:41, Updated May. 26, 2020 07:41
The operative word is "should." Note the US remains committed to supporting a brighter future in north Korea if Kim Jong-un makes the right strategic decision. Unfortunately that brighter future is just as much a threat to the survival of the regime as giving up nuclear weapons. The fact is a brighter future means economic engagement, which means opening, which means information flow into the north which will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime. This is why the north either shuns engagement or strictly limits it. The South, NGOs, and International Organizations try to engage in north Korea to help the Korean people in the north and do the right thing because it is the to do. But this is perceived as a threat by the Kim family regime.
We should note the response to a provocation will not or should not be the same as a response if deterrence fails. If deterrence fails we will be at war and thus the necessity for a decisive response. The greater the decisive response the less blood and treasure of the ROK/US alliance will be expended. north Korea remains an existential threat to the Republic of Korea and it is a vital interest of the United States to prevent war on the Korean peninsula. Thus all our actions must be built on the foundation of the the strength of the ROK/US alliance and the ability to deter a north Korean attack. Therefore NSA O'brien and ADM Richard's are correct to emphasize our commitment to deterrence.
Provocations are a different story. They are designed to support the north's blackmail diplomacy (to use provocations and increased tensions to obtain political and economic concessions). Nuclear and missile tests may be designed to support blackmail diplomacy. But they may very well be designed to advance north Korean military capabilities to be able to be used in war. Since we cannot know Kim's intention for sure we most first and foremost deter him from attack of the South. Again, this nessiciates strategic reassurance and strategic resolve on our part.
3. New heavily-armed submarine enters service in North Korea
almasdarnews.com · May 25, 2020
If this is accurate reporting there is only one reason for developing this submarine - a second strike nuclear capability. While we cannot know Kim Jong-un's intentions for sure, he does provide us many indicators for assessment. Note the comment "non-nuclear missile submarine" refers to the submarine not being nuclear powered not meaning it won't carry nuclear weapons.
4. North's Kim heaps pressure on Trump to relax sanctions
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · May 25, 2020
Three points. Sanctions have been "relaxed" due to declining enforcement. The US is the only country that is really enforcing sanctions on any scale and yet there is so much more the US could to do enforce sanctions and bring greater pressure to bear both on north Korea and those who enable sanctions evasion (e.g., China and Russia).
The second point is calling for sanctions "relaxation" combined with threats of provocation is not going to entice the President into negotiations. Again the fact is the US is ready for substantive working level negotiations. There should not be another summit or meeting between Kim and President Trump unless working level negotiations produce some kind of agreement that can he brought to the two leaders.
The third point is Kim's failure to get sanctions relief has resulted in strong internal pressure on him. I have to give Kim some credit if he is adjusting his position to only call for sanctions relaxation rather than sanctions relief (he initially raised expectations too high beginning at the Singapore summit). Perhaps some Track 1.5 discussions with US interlocutors have suggested Kim make a lesser demand for relaxation rather than relief since the enforcement of sanctions is already "relaxed." But if they think this will entice POTUS I think they are mistaken. I also think whether it is sanctions relief or sanctions relaxation to give in on this without any substantive movement toward denuclearization would be a mistake. It would only reaffirm to Kim that his blackmail strategy works and eventually the US and the world will give in to his demands. Once he gets even a symbolic relaxation he will not negotiate in good faith but will instead continue to employ blackmail diplomacy to get his next demand which will be total sanctions relief. Lastly as part of this third point it is only the internal pressure from the elite and the military that can cause Kim to change his calculus on his nuclear program. Therefore we need to maintain maximum pressure which means no only sanctions but also military pressure, cyber operations (defensive and offensive), aggressive diplomacy on the peninsula, in the region, and at the UN, and information and influence activities against the three target audiences: he elite, the second tier leadership, and the Korean people.
For anyone who advocates sanctions relaxation or sanctions relief I would ask you to tell us what north Korean behavior you wish to publicly condone: Nuclear and missile development? Cyber attacks? Global illicit activities (counterfeiting, drug trafficking, overseas slave labor)? The denial of the human rights of the Korean people living in the north to ensure the survival of the regime?
5. UNC says it cannot determine whether N.K. started border gunfire accidentally
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 26, 2020
I am surprised by this finding. It should not be difficult to figure who fired first based on the CCTV footage which should be at the guard post. And regarding violations by "both sides" I do believe the South Korean soldiers have the right to defend themselves from armed attack by the north under the Armistice. Perhaps because it took 30 minutes for the South to return fire the investigators consider that no longer self defense.
But this investigation is going to cause alliance friction which of course is one of the standard objectives for north Korean provocations. This is a headline on Yonhap right now. Those in the South who are opposed to the UNC will use this for justification to argue for removal. And we should keep in mind a long standing objective for the regime is also the removal of the UNC. Are we playing right into its hands?
6. U.S. could build trust with North Korea by following South's lead: Brooks
nknews.org · by View more articles by Oliver Hotham · May 26, 2020
General Brooks has long advocated this approach. This assumes the north wants to negotiate in good faith and is not playing a long con and executing a political warfare strategy in support of its long term objective to dominate the peninsula under the control of the Guerrilla Dynasty adn Gulag State. I am doubtful an end of war declaration will prove palatable to the "hardliners" in Pyongyang. I think it is important to understand what the regime wants in terms of building trust. The regime demands an end to the "US hostile policy." The end of this policy requires an end to the rokUS alliance, the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula, an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan. Once that happens there can be "trust" between the north and the US. A simple declaration of the end of the war will not suffice for trust building from the view of the north. There must be a complete end of the hostile policy as defined by the regime. The problem is if we were to do this there will be war on the peninsula as we will have removed our deterrent capability. REgardless of the ROK's superior military capability and ability to successfully defend itself (though with huge expenditures of blood and treasure) the north will believe it has the correlation of forces to successfully attack the South. It is the US presence and commitment that provide the foundation for deterring a north Korean attack. Remove US forces and there will be war.
7. Gov't to Push Ahead with Quixotic Cross-Border Projects (Korea)
english.chosun.com May 26, 2020 12:10
Perhaps we should call the South's strategy the "Windmill Campaign" with the main component being "tilting at."
But I think we should consider why the north has not taken advantage of the ROK's desire for engagement. Yes the north (and the Moon administration) want to restart the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the tours at Kumgangsan but are prohibited by sanctions. The north wants these projects because in the past these projects have brought hundred of millions of dollars directly to the regime's Royal Court economy.
But there are may other areas for engagement between north and South but the regime has not agreed to anything and seems to have no interest. There could be two reasons. The obvious one is there is not enough money to be made for the regime from these engagement efforts. The second is a lack of trust in the South and the suspicion the South is trying to undermine the regime for political purposes. And even if that is not the deliberate intention of the Moon Administration (and I think no one in the South or the US believes it is) the engagement is still perceived as a threat to the regime. Therefore these proposals are the act of a Don Quixote tilting at windmills.
8. An unidentified boat in the West Sea (Korea)
donga.com Posted May. 26, 2020 07:41, Updated May. 26, 2020 07:41
Coastal defense is hard. And detecting a small boat is hard. Even a Sango submarine that runs aground on the beach is hard to detect. In 1996 the north Korean infiltration submarine was detected by a taxi driver who alerted coastal defenses.
9. Between a rock and a hard place, Korea hedges bets
We need to reinforce the strength of our alliance. And if China conducts economic warfare against the South due to its security relationship with the US, we need to be prepared to (economically) defend the South. We failed to do so when we deployed THAAD and the Chinese took strong economic action. We have to understand the ROK's geostrategic situation. It has a 600 pound gorilla (or dragon) knocking at its door.
10. N. Korea distributes documents educating people about COVID-19
By Kang Mi Jin 2020.05.26 4:09pm dailynk.com
As far as I know the north still reports zero cases of the coronavirus. Either they are doing a good job suppressing information or they are really doing a good job of preventing an outbreak through their draconian population and resources control measures. But this indicates to me they are either having an outbreak or are very concerned about having one.
11. S. Korea, U.S. pushing for defense ministers' videoconference next month
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 26, 2020
The two most important organizations to the ROK/US Alliance are the MIlitary Committee (which oversees the ROK/US Combined Forces Command) and the MOFA-DOS Strategy Working Group which coordinates alliance strategy toward north Korea.
But the question is will we be able to get the SMA/burden sharing issue resolved soon before it does too much more damage to the alliance?
12. Kim reappears promoting nuke deterrence
asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · May 23, 2020
This excerpted quote from Edward Oh is priceless and worth keeping in mind by anyone who thinks the north is going to give up its nuclear weapons. I suppose it would have to change its constitution again to allow them to do so.. Also Bradley Martin provides key excerpts from the north's statements below.
"Set forth at the meeting were new policies for further increasing the nuclear war deterrence of the country," KCNA says.
That elicited a tweet from Washington lawyer Edward Oh, who writes about North Korea and has been skeptical about hopes others have expressed that Kim will shift his focus from nuclear weaponry to reforming the economy through such means as special economic zones:
"I guess when you declare your nuclear weapons as your 'treasured sword' and enshrine it in your constitution, it would probably be a misinterpretation of North Korea's intentions to think there may be a chance they would bargain them away for the chance to build more SEZs," said Oh.
13. The way South Korea crushed its second wave is a warning to us all
Wired · by David Cox · May 26, 2020
Watch and learn. Of course there are troubling civil liberties issues especially for minority communities. How to balance "freedom from" and "freedom to."
14. S. Korea seeks law revision to bolster inter-Korean exchanges, cooperation
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 26, 2020
The South is doing everything it can to promote engagement with the north.
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"The enemy of my enemy is also my enemy, can't have too many enemies."
- Maura Quint via Twitter
"When devils commit their biggest sins they put on their most heavenly face, as I do now."
-Iago in Othello by Shakespeare
"I don't underrate the value of military knowledge, but if men make war in slavish obedience to rules, they will fail."
- President Ulysses S. Grant
"The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."
- President Thomas Jefferson
20200525 News & Commentary – National Security
1. Looking at War Across 2,500 Years
2. Trump's 'New Cold War' aims to hold China at bay
3. The G7 must stand up for Hong Kong's freedom
4. China's domestic politics hamstring its diplomacy
5. The End of the New World Order
6. Building the Post-Pandemic World
7. New security law is a masterstroke (China - Hong Kong)
8. Secret military mission uncovered in Libya
9. Coronavirus: Experts warn of bioterrorism after pandemic
10. Memorial Day: A Retired Army Ranger Reflects on War and Life
11. Honor our fallen by understanding their missions
12. The significance of Trump's hostility toward VOA
13. The Retired U.S. Senator and Diplomat Shilling for China's Propaganda Machine
14. Hong Kong Is Becoming Ground Zero in the New Cold War
1. Looking at War Across 2,500 Years
The New York Times · by Thomas E. Ricks · May 22, 2020
I was surprised not to read the quote, "Only the dead have seen the end of war." (Santayana, I think rather than Plato) This could be a summer reading list as Tom Ricks has review a half dozen or so books that look at war through the ages, in various forms (including resistance) right up to today's stealth technology
2. Trump's 'New Cold War' aims to hold China at bay
asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · May 25, 2020
We need to face China for the competitor, revisionist power, or threat that it is. It is conducting political warfare - unrestricted warfare and the three warfares of psychological warfare, legal warfare/lawfare, and media warfare/public opinion warfare. We must conduct a superior form of political warfare while maintaining our nuclear and conventional dominance to deter war.
I do believe the Economic Prosperity Network (EPN) (https://www.state.gov/special-briefing-with-keith-krach-under-secretary-of-state-for-economic-growth-energy-and-the-environment-cordell-hull-acting-under-secretary-of-commerce-for-industry-and-security-dr-christophe/) and the and the Blue Dot Network (https://www.state.gov/blue-dot-network-frequently-asked-questions/)can be essential elements of a political warfare strategy.
If there is a new Cold War it will be authoritarian regimes versus those who believe in freedom and liberty, liberal democracy, free market economies, and human rights. This will be the major conflict of the 21st century.
3. The G7 must stand up for Hong Kong's freedom
Financial Times · by Chris Patten · May 24, 2020
The international community needs to take a stand and hold Xi and the CCP accountable. Of course it is not only Hong Kong. It is Tibet, and the Uighurs, and Taiwan and all the minorities in China who have their human rights denied so the Chinese Communist Party can prosper and remain in power. Perhaps it is time for the G7 to figure out how not to allow the CCP to prosper.
4. China's domestic politics hamstring its diplomacy
asiatimes.com · by Denny Roy · May 25, 2020
A China hand once told me that the basic "equation" for Chinese security is "energy security =economic growth = domestic political security = the Chinese Communist Party remaining in power." Has China overextended itself and will the Party react to domestic politics by restraining its foreign activity or doubling down? And of course the Pandemic (otherwise known as the Wuhan Coronavirus) threw another variable into the equation which can be negative for domestic politics but can also be exploited for its foreign affairs strategy.
This provides an interesting analysis of the Chinese failure of diplomacy in 2020. This is certainly something that should be exploited by a superior political warfare strategy.
5. The End of the New World Order
Opinion | The New York Times · by Ross Douthat · May 23, 2020
It is interesting how the "New World Order" contribute to such a conspiracy theory. It was mentioned to describe a new Post-Cold War World that was no longer a bi-polar competition between the West and the USSR and the Warsaw pact. But it was turned into a a theory for global government. And now it is taking on a new life in the coronavirus pandemic.
The question is do we protect the sovereign nations state system and the Post WWII institutions that have supported it (and that have been very good for US security and prosperity)? Or do we retreat into a isolationist nationalist construct that will surely have severe negative economic consequences? Without global markets we are going to suffer and a global market system needs to be rules based. Do we want China and authoritarian regimes establishing those rules?
6. Building the Post-Pandemic World
by James Jay Carafano & Kurt Volker
A useful list of agenda items from Jim Carafano and Ambassador Volker. In short (my assessment) we need to to build strong relationships with friends, partners and allies who are like minded and believe in freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights to counter the revisionist and rogue powers (and violent extremist organizations) described in our National Security and National Defense Strategy.
But this is very Eurocentric I think the relationship with all five treaty allies in the Asia Pacific need to be reinforced. And I think the Free and Open INDOPACIFIC strategy should be emphasized (along with the Economic Prosperity Network and Blue Dot network).
Lastly, they make a good point about alliances. I think alliances are so important we should reframe our elements of national power to DIME-A - diplomatic, informational, military, economic, and Alliances.
7. New security law is a masterstroke (China - Hong Kong)
Alex Lo Published: 9:00pm, 24 May, 2020
This is an excellent piece of propaganda. It works so well because there are plenty of elements that are accurate. But the spin on them is masterful. The "problem" is not with China but with the Hong Kong protestors (and the support they receive from Washington). This new security law will solve that problem. This should be studied by PSYOP and Public Diplomacy professionals.
8. Secret military mission uncovered in Libya
dailytelegraph.com.au · May 25, 2020
Private military corporations: the way of the future? We should all read Sean McFate's recent scholarship (non-fiction research and his novels)Whose interests were these contractors serving? I would love to read their "campaign plan." What were their ends and objectives?
9. Coronavirus: Experts warn of bioterrorism after pandemic
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
We should be treating the Wuhan coronavirus as a rehearsal for a biological weapons attack, especially the military, depending on how we come through this state and non-state actors with biological weapons capabilities may be emboldened. And while a virus is not necessarily a good bio weapon some adversaries may not be concerned with the blowback or lack of control over the use of bio weapons and may only seek to sow chaos and disorder that they can exploit. Just consider the domestic and international political turmoil this has caused so far. In many ways we have let the coronavirus get the better of us. The coronavirus pandemic should be a huge wake-up call.
10. Memorial Day: A Retired Army Ranger Reflects on War and Life
coffeeordie.com · by Jariko Denman · May 23, 2020
Words to reflect upon today.
11. Honor our fallen by understanding their missions
Washington Examiner · by Tommy Meyerson · May 25, 2020
Let us reflect on our brothers and sisters who gave their last full measure in these places of continuing conflict as well as those where are nation has fought around the world and on our own soil.
12. The significance of Trump's hostility toward VOA
I strongly recommend watching this 7 minute video.
When Matt Armstrong speaks on the USGMA, VOA, RFA, etc., as well as psychological warfare, political warfare, and propaganda, I listen. He is one of our nation's true experts on all things related to influence operations in support of US national security objectives. Most people have no clue how important is VOA, RFA, RFE/RL, MBN is supporting US national security. This is a simple succinct tutorial.
13. The Retired U.S. Senator and Diplomat Shilling for China's Propaganda Machine
National Review Online · by Zachary Evans · May 25, 2020
There ought to be a law. I suppose he has registered as a foreign agent so I assume he is in compliance with that law. Has the former Senator/Ambassador drunk the Kool Aid from the CCP?
14. Hong Kong Is Becoming Ground Zero in the New Cold War
thediplomat.com · by Brian C.H. Fong · May 25, 2020
I fear Hong Kong has already "fallen." It did so in 1997. While no one can logically argue that any country should go to war over Hong Kong (because it is after all, China's) it does not mean the international community cannot put pressure on the CCP to provide basic political rights to the citizens of Hong Kong. BUu more importantly Hong Kong is part of the larger problem of authoritarian rule of the CCP and how Tibet, the Uighurs, Taiwan and other ethnic minorities are treated by the CCP. The CCP has to be held accountable and pay an economic price for its actions. This will not be a kinetic battleground but it will be one of political warfare.
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"America without her soldiers would be like God without His angels."
- Claudia Pemberton
"I believe our flag is more than just cloth and ink. It is a universally recognized symbol that stands for liberty, and freedom. It is the history of our nation, and it's marked by the blood of those who died defending it."
- John Thune
"Over all our happy country - over all our Nation spread, is a band of noble heroes- is our Army of the Dead."
- Will Carleton
5/25/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
1. Kim Jong-un Moves to Increase North Korea's Nuclear Strength
2. Kim Jong-un Promotes Nuclear Officials
3. New submarine or SLBMs likely next options for N.K. to claim enhanced nuke deterrence: experts
4. Kim Jong Un lectures on importance of enhancing nuclear capabilities
5. U.S. official renews calls for N.K. to abandon nukes after its party meeting on nuke deterrence
6. Kim Jong Un's renewed threat with operation of loaded nuclear weapons
7. Question: What Direction Do You See U.S.-North Korea Relations Heading in For the Rest of the Year?
8. Former 'comfort woman' calls for justice for former civic group head, 'accurate' history education for students of S. Korea, Japan
9. Moon's inter-Korean initiative put to test
10. Why Seoul must not let Pyongyang off the hook for past aggressions
11. S. Korea striving to break club-linked transmission chain
12. Korea braces for more Covid cases in the classroom
13. Current level of daily infections containable under quarantine system: Moon
14. KDVA "I Know a Korean War Veteran" Campaign Stories- The Champoux Family Story
1. Kim Jong-un Moves to Increase North Korea's Nuclear Strength
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · May 24, 2020
Internal and external messaging here. Clearly we interpret this as a message to us. Kim Jong-un has no intention of denuclearizing but instead will continue his blackmail diplomacy - the use of provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions. He is sending a message to President Trump that he provided all the political benefit to president Trump (no nuclear or ICBM testing and President Trump has been able to tout that as a success in his reelection campaign. However, Kim Jong-un has received no political benefit from his 3 meetings with President Trump because he has failed to get sanctions relief. Kim may be sending the message do not use me as a campaign prop.
However, there is a lot of internal messaging here. It is about countering the pressure he is under for failing to get sanctions relief. He is reinforcing the importance of the nuclear program for deterrence to counter the frustration of the elite, the military, and the people for their sacrifices to develop nuclear weapons. Their sacrifices have not paid off and resulted in any tangible benefits, e.g., sanctions relief. Second, it appears to be an effort to reinforce Military First Politics or Songun also to sustain military support. We should keep in mind Songun was never eliminated or replaced even with the establishment of Byunjin - the simultaneous development of nuclear weapons and the economy. The military always has been and always will be key to regime survival. The promotion of those involved with the nuclear program is a sign of not only importance of the program but Kim's commitment to never give it up (an internal and external message).
2. Kim Jong-un Promotes Nuclear Officials
The importance of the nuclear program and Songun (Military First Politics).
3. New submarine or SLBMs likely next options for N.K. to claim enhanced nuke deterrence: experts
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 25, 2020
This would be logical. The north would want a "second strike" capability to enhance nuclear deterrence. However, I am sure the ROK and US navy's have long bee anticipating this and I would guess we have our enhanced anti-submarine warfare capabilities in the region prepared to deal with this threat. And I would bet we have every sub pen, to include the underground ones already dialed in by the targeteers with the right ordnance to destroy them. Kim should know this and know that whatever action he takes and capability he develops the combined ROK and US military have the capabilities to counter them. So keep on wasting the resources that could otherwise go to feeding and taking care of the Korean people living in the north. Of course Kim does not care about those people, only the elite, the military and himself.
4. Kim Jong Un lectures on importance of enhancing nuclear capabilities
donga.com, Posted May. 25, 2020 07:46, Updated May. 25, 2020 07:46
Imagine sitting through a Kim Jong-un lecture - keeping your eyes open and not slumping in your chair, while pretending to take copious note (which is probably the best coping mechanism to prevent falling asleep and being hauled out of the lecture to be executed.
North Korean nuclear deterrence theory in a nutshell: The US will not attack another country armed with nuclear weapons; therefore, north Korea must have nuclear weapons to deter the US and survive. I wonder how long it takes to lecture about that?
Hmmm... does concealing the "mission maps" really lower the threat level?
5. U.S. official renews calls for N.K. to abandon nukes after its party meeting on nuke deterrence
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 25, 2020
NSA O'Brien is correct. Say what you will about the President's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy, the burden for negotiation lies on Kim jong-un's shoulders. He is the one who has not allowed substantive working level negotiations. The US is committed to negotiating the denuclearization of north Korea and if Kim makes the right strategic decision the US is committed to a brighter future for the north. Unfortunately in Kim's calculus this is a dual threat. Giving up his nuclear program is a threat to his survival and the brighter future implies economic development and opening which means information flow into north Korea. We should always keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak's most important question: Who does Kim Jongun fear more? The US or the Korean people living in the north? It is the Korea people especially when they are armed with information.
6. Kim Jong Un's renewed threat with operation of loaded nuclear weapons
donga.com Posted May. 25, 2020 07:45, Updated May. 25, 2020 07:45
The other key point is Kim Jong-un does not want to be sidelined or marginalized among the coronavirus pandemic (with South Korea success on the global stage) and the escalating China-US "competition." Kim is letting us all know he is still here and a formidable threat (in his mind).
7. Question: What Direction Do You See U.S.-North Korea Relations Heading in For the Rest of the Year?
The National Interest · by Lucia Husenicová · May 24, 2020
I still think this is wrong. north Korea issues, even another summit with Kim Jong-un, are unlikely to have a significant impact on the November election. Unless we go to war I do not think north Korea will influence voters. Sure, the Republic base will be reinforced, but independent and Democratic votes will not be changed by a Summit. Even an october surprise of a missile or nuclear test will not change votes. So I think it is very important to communicate that to Kim Jong-un. He is just not that important and he will not have any significant influence. So he should stay home, shut up and color like a good little boy.
8. Former 'comfort woman' calls for justice for former civic group head, 'accurate' history education for students of S. Korea, Japan
en.yna.co.kr · by 우재연 · May 25, 2020
These women continued to be victimized even by their countrymen (or in this case countrywoman). I hope they get justice.
9. Moon's inter-Korean initiative put to test
The Korea Times · May 25, 2020
With all due respect to President Moon I think there are two problems. On the one hand it appears that President Moon "wants it" more than Kim. And because of that Kim senses that he can exploit the situation at the time of his choosing through execution of political warfare in support of his long con.
On the other hand, and many of those who are critics of President Moon and his vision toward north Korea will vehemently disagree with this, Kim may fear President Moon's desire for engagement because it is perceived to be designed to undermine Kim and his regime. I am saying this could be how Kim views it. Any type of engagement can be detrimental to the regime. President Moon may not intend this (and very likely he does not) but from Kim's perspective that may be what he believes is intended. The bottomline is whether intentional or not engagement is a threat. Perhaps those who really want to bring down the regime and cause collapse should reconsider the maximum pressure campaign and lift sanctions. I actually think those who want to sustain maximum pressure really do want to make diplomacy work. It is that they know that providing concessions will not cause Kim to negotiation but will instead embolden his blackmail diplomacy. And those who think there should be maximum engagement would argue they do not want collapse but instead only to entice Kim to negotiate. But we have many years of evidence of providing concessions with no change in north Korean behavior. Which is why I advocate we conduct our superior form of political warfare to achieve our objectives in the long term.
10. Why Seoul must not let Pyongyang off the hook for past aggressions
nknews.org · by View more articles by Jumin Lee · May 25, 2020
11. S. Korea striving to break club-linked transmission chain
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · May 25, 2020
This is incident shows the danger and complexity of community transmission. And it also illustrates the damage one selfish idiot can do.
While we all demand liberty, e.g., the freedom from tyranny, that does not give people to the freedom to do what the want - You do not have the freedom to infect others. This is the fundamental argue freedom from versus freedom to. I hope the Korean authorities can eventually hold this person accountable for his actions.
12. Korea braces for more Covid cases in the classroom
asiatimes.com · by Mitch Shin · May 25, 2020
We need to watch and learn.
13. Current level of daily infections containable under quarantine system: Moon
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · May 25, 2020
14. KDVA "I Know a Korean War Veteran" Campaign Stories- The Champoux Family Story
https://kdva.vet/2020/05/20/the-champoux-family-story/
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"America without her soldiers would be like God without His angels."
- Claudia Pemberton
"I believe our flag is more than just cloth and ink. It is a universally recognized symbol that stands for liberty, and freedom. It is the history of our nation, and it's marked by the blood of those who died defending it."
- John Thune
"Over all our happy country - over all our Nation spread, is a band of noble heroes- is our Army of the Dead."
- Will Carleton
5/24/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
1. China tells U.S. to stop taking them 'to the brink of a new Cold War'
2. Iran struck first. 'Israel' retaliated massively. Behind the cyber war rattling the Middle East
3. Islamic State is back and this time the west is ill-prepared to take it on | Hassan Hassan
4. Protecting the future of the special operations forces enterprise
5. Sky is the limit: How aviation holds the key to Special Operations
6. Trump planning to strip pandemic response from health officials, and give it to State Department
7. If Coronavirus Is a War, Let's Do What the Military Does to Get Through It
8. Welcome to the Coronavirus Cold War
9. Coronavirus won't spell the end for globalization - but change is unavoidable
10. Xi says China won't return to planned economy
11. The F-35B Guarantees Allied Naval Dominance Over China
12. How can Israel mitigate the risk from Chinese investments?
13. Lawmakers Ask Trump to Extend National Guard Missions for One Crucial Day
14. America's oldest military ally in Asia turns toward China
15. Wuhan lab had three live bat coronaviruses: Chinese state media
16. Ambassador intervenes after Mike Pompeo warns US could 'disconnect' from Australia over Victoria's Belt and Road deal
17. Will China Rein In Its Wolves? - OpEd
18. The Prophecies of Q: American conspiracy theories are entering a dangerous new phase.
1. China tells U.S. to stop taking them 'to the brink of a new Cold War'
By Anna Fifield, May 24, 2020 at 6:55 a.m. EDT, The Washington Post
"Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counteraccusations." Or is this China mirror imaging and really talking about itself here?
2. Iran struck first. 'Israel' retaliated massively. Behind the cyber war rattling the Middle East
haaretz.com · by Yossi Melman
Yes this is cyber warfare. But it is also an essential part of political warfare. It is the way of the future (though it can and will be combined with kinetics action and effects as well).
3. Islamic State is back and this time the west is ill-prepared to take it on
The Guardian · by Hassan Hassan · May 24, 2020
Violent extremist organizations will continue to be a national security threat despite our desire to wish them away and return to major state on state conflict.
The author is advocating for a US led response. I do not think that is in the cards.
4. Protecting the future of the special operations forces enterprise
militarytimes.com · by Michael T. Hall · May 21, 2020
Wise words from CSM Mike Hall. Though again I will add my same 2 cents. The ASD SO/LIC should become a Secretary for Special Operations on equal footing with the Service Secretaries and the Commander of USSOCOM should become the Chief of Special Operations and made a mber of the Joint Chiefs and given a permanent seat in the Tank. After all we the Chief of the National Guard Bureau is a member of the Joint Chiefs. We should have a Chief of Special Operations there as well.
5. Sky is the limit: How aviation holds the key to Special Operations
A view from India.
6. Trump planning to strip pandemic response from health officials, and give it to State Department
dailykos.com · by Mark Sumner · May 23, 2020
I had not heard anything about this. This is from the DAILY KOS.
7. If Coronavirus Is a War, Let's Do What the Military Does to Get Through It
Entrepreneur · by John Panaccione · May 24, 2020
:-). An attempt at a simplified model of the military decision making process (MDMP) with the emphasis on the mission analysis portion of the process for small business owners.
8. Welcome to the Coronavirus Cold War
A view from Korea:
The National Interest · by Sukjoon Yoon · May 23, 2020
9. Coronavirus won't spell the end for globalization - but change is unavoidable
weforum.org · by Jun Du
We will never return to a 2019 status quo. We are going to have a new norm.
10. Xi says China won't return to planned economy
thestar.com.my · May 24, 2020
I will believe it when I see it. I think a planned economy is in the CCP's DNA. Perhaps the only change is to no long make public their target projections.
11. The F-35B Guarantees Allied Naval Dominance Over China
The National Interest · by Merrick "Mac" Carey · May 23, 2020
12. How can Israel mitigate the risk from Chinese investments?
This is a tough problem but one we must address.
13. Lawmakers Ask Trump to Extend National Guard Missions for One Crucial Day
defenseone.com · by Read bio
Come on. Let's think this through. What will making such a petty decision as to deny benefits because of a one day cut off due to retention and future recruiting for the National Guard? These men and women sacrifice on multiple levels to serve their country in a time of need. Should we really be treating them like this? who is responsible for this decision? I wonder if the Chief of the National Guard Bureau is banging his fist on the table in the tank demanding our National Guard soldiers be treated properly.
14. America's oldest military ally in Asia turns toward China
Axios · by Camille Elemia
Our alliance structure is one of the most important elements of US national power. I would reframe it to DIMA-A: Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Information, and Alliances.
15. Wuhan lab had three live bat coronaviruses: Chinese state media
gulfnews.com · by AFP
Chinese. State. Media.
16. Ambassador intervenes after Mike Pompeo warns US could 'disconnect' from Australia over Victoria's Belt and Road deal
ABC.net.au · May 24, 2020
Alliances. DIME-A. If we are going to counter China's revisionist ambitions to reshape the world order in its desired image we will only be successful if we have a strong foundation that is our alliance structure.
17. Will China Rein In Its Wolves? - OpEd
eurasiareview.com · by EU-Asia Centre · May 24, 2020
Why should it? So far it seems to be working for them. And I would not put much stock in the "self" - criticism.
18. The Prophecies of Q: American conspiracy theories are entering a dangerous new phase.
The Atlantic · by Adrienne LaFrance
I used to laugh off this conspiracy theory. But now we have a candidate for Senator in Oregon (of course she will not win as it is a Democrat stronghold) who is an ardent follower and there are many others who actually believe this bulls**t.
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"Without courage we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. We can't be kind, true, merciful, generous, or honest."
- Maya Angelou
"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control. Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals, but within myself to the choices that are my own"
- Epictetus
"And a commitment to justice in your own acts. Which means: thought and action resulting in the common good. What you were born to do."
- Marcus Aurelius
5/24/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
1. N.K. leader presides over key party meeting to discuss increasing nuclear war deterrence
2. Kim Jong Un wants to increase North Korea's 'nuclear war deterrence,' state media reports
3. Kim Jong Un makes appearance in public for first time since May 1, state media says
4. Why the Iran-North Korea Missile Alliance Is Pure Trouble
5. DPRK's ruling party holds military meeting to boost armed forces
6. N. Korea designates army anniversary as national holiday
7. North Korea's Kim, in first appearance in weeks, vows to bolster nuclear 'deterrence'
8. Inside Kim Jong Un's 'tremendous' Mar-a-Lago-style resort in North Korea
9. The Real Reason U.S. Patriot Missile Defense Batteries Are Leaving Saudi Arabia (Spoiler alert: north Korea?)
10. Unification minister calls for inter-Korean cooperation against coronavirus
11. S. Korea's new virus cases hover around 20 for 3rd day, Itaewon cluster keeps growing
12. How South Korea turned an urban planning system into a virus tracking database
1. N.K. leader presides over key party meeting to discuss increasing nuclear war deterrence
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 24, 2020
KCNA reports are not proof of life. I am not implying he is dead or incapacitated (though he very well could be hiding from coronavirus).
But we should all want Kim's work schedule. Work one day, participate in one event, and then take three weeks off. (though there was a KCNA report a week or so ago that said Kim is hard at work, working seven days a week).
2. Kim Jong Un wants to increase North Korea's 'nuclear war deterrence,' state media reports
CNN · by Radina Gigova, CNN
What I think it is important to remember is the only "tangible" benefit Kim has been able to demonstrate from its nuclear program is deterrence. Kim has demanded a high level of sacrifice from the Korean people living in the north to develop nuclear weapons but all they get is deterrence. And the irony is the best deterrent north Korea has is actually the tyranny of proximity - the proximity of Seoul to the DMZ and north Korea's artillery, rocket, and missile forces and frontline maneuver units. Any action taken against the north has to consider the likely response against Seoul from the world's fourth largest army. Although the Kim family regime has long believed the US will not attack another country armed with nuclear weapons the truth is the tyranny of proximity also serves as a deterrent to both the ROK and the US.
But the important thing is to call out Kim for his failure to get any tangible benefits from his nuclear program. Although the regime has had a lot of success over the years with its blackmail diplomacy it has failed to be able to use its nuclear program to get sanctions relief. Kim has made the Korean people sacrifice and suffer for the past two years (and really for decades) as he tried to play his long con through political warfare with juche characteristics. President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, penpal diplomacy provided Kim the opportunity to make the right strategic decision in return for a brighter future. But Kim has no intention of giving up his nuclear program because it has not yet paid off for the regime and it must be considered Kim's "trump card" in every negotiation with the hope that soe day it will pay off. Other than the argument for deterrence and the international notoriety it brings Kim, the nuclear program has brought no benefits to the regime and the Korean people living in the north. Kim's failure to get sanctions relief after raising expectations so high since the 2018 Olympics and the Panmunjom and Singapore summits. This failure is the biggest failure of the Kim family regime since Kim Il Sung's failure to unify the peninsula in 1950-53.
3. Kim Jong Un makes appearance in public for first time since May 1, state media says
foxnews.com · by Michael Ruiz | Fox News
Yes the regime is masterful at denial and deception (which is a little more than being known from withholding information from public scrutiny).. And of course we are trying to figure out what every event we observe inside north Korea means. And a key point much of what we see is only what the regime deliberately wants us to see.
4. Why the Iran-North Korea Missile Alliance Is Pure Trouble
The National Interest · by Bruce E. Bechtol · May 24, 2020
There are few Americans who know more about north Korean weapons proliferation to Iran (and the Middle East and Africa) than Dr. Bruce Bechtol.
We ignore north Korea-Iran collaboration (and north Korean proliferation to Iran) at our peril. As Bruce has often said to me and other Korea watchers, if you see it in north Korea you will eventually see it or a variation of it in Iran.
5. DPRK's ruling party holds military meeting to boost armed forces
A view from the Chinese Communist party's Xinhua.
Two points: First is Songun is not dead (military first politics). Second, Kim is under tremendous pressure from the elite, the military, and the Korean people for failing to get a pay off for the the nuclear program, e.g. sanctions relief.
And most important the Kim family regime cannot survive unless the Korean military remains coherent unified organization and sustains its support for the regime.
6. N. Korea designates army anniversary as national holiday
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · May 24, 2020
Interesting. Remember how important is the narrative the legitimacy of the regime rests on the foundation of (the myth) of anti-japanese partisan warfare. This seems to emphasize the importance of that. It probably is also an indirect effort to reinforce the Paektu blood line which again flows from Kim Il-sung's 1st of the 88th Special Independent Sniper Brigade (under the control of the Soviet Red Army) that he commanded while he (mythically) conducted anti-Japanese partisan warfare. The bottom line, Songun prevails. Military First Politics is critical to the survival of the Kim family regime.
7. North Korea's Kim, in first appearance in weeks, vows to bolster nuclear 'deterrence'
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin3 Min Read · May 24, 2020
Coincidence or deliberate on the part of the regime? I think coincidence. The regime would have had to know this before well before the meeting since the agenda is pre-approved and the meeting and all statements highly choreographed. That said, yes if we conduct a nuclear test there should be no doubt that will become a key part of north Korean propaganda and if they decide to conduct another nuclear test it will be used as justification.
8. Inside Kim Jong Un's 'tremendous' Mar-a-Lago-style resort in North Korea
New York Post · by Dana Kennedy · May 23, 2020
I do like the phrase "the septuagenarian Deep Staters back in the capital (Pyongyang)." I did not say it but I wish I had. :-)
9. The Real Reason U.S. Patriot Missile Defense Batteries Are Leaving Saudi Arabia (Spoiler alert: north Korea?)
The National Interest · by Kirsten Fontenrose · May 23, 2020
10. Unification minister calls for inter-Korean cooperation against coronavirus
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 22, 2020
INTRA-Korean cooperation would be nice but the north has to first admit they have a coronavirus and then accept help. Both I think are unlikely in the near term as it appears the regime must be managing the situation sufficiently. I am surprised we have not heard about large scale breakouts in the north. The regime's draconian populations and resources control measures must be working.
11. S. Korea's new virus cases hover around 20 for 3rd day, Itaewon cluster keeps growing
en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · May 24, 2020
12. How South Korea turned an urban planning system into a virus tracking database
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Hyunjoo Jin, Josh Smith9 Min Read · May 22, 2020
Creative problem solving on the part of South Koreans. Unfortunately these types of capabilities are not acceptable in the US due to civil liberty concerns. Ironically Americans will accept such data collection and and database exploitation from private companies - just not the government - and I am sure Palantir and other companies have developed similar capabilities. But we will not be able to exploit these capabilities for the public health procedures that are vital to stopping the virus before we have a vaccine.
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"Without courage we cannot practice any other virtue with consistency. We can't be kind, true, merciful, generous, or honest."
- Maya Angelou
"The chief task in life is simply this: to identify and separate matters so that I can say clearly to myself which are externals not under my control, and which have to do with the choices I actually control. Where then do I look for good and evil? Not to uncontrollable externals, but within myself to the choices that are my own"
- Epictetus
"And a commitment to justice in your own acts. Which means: thought and action resulting in the common good. What you were born to do."
- Marcus Aurelius