Small Wars Journal

07/02/2020 News & Commentary – National Security  

Thu, 07/02/2020 - 10:50am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. U.S. readies sanctions on China over rights abuses in Xinjiang

2. China's software stalked Uighurs earlier and more widely, researchers learn

3. Taiwan practices 'enemy annihilation' after China steps up activity

4. Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate again

5. Little evidence that protests spread coronavirus in US

6. Dollar's dominance to slowly melt away over coming year: Reuters poll

7. FBI: Record-shattering surge in gun checks as BLM, 2020 election, virus boost sales

8. As China strengthens grip on Hong Kong, Taiwan sees a threat

9. SASC pushes cyber overhaul in New NDAA

10. Drone-era warfare shows the operational limits of air defense systems

11. Big pay raise, limits on troop moves highlight defense budget measure

12. Army's senior officer ranks are not diverse enough, General says

13. Don't allow a vocal fringe minority to cut our much-needed defense investments

14. Here's how to stop the virus from winning

15. The Mercenary who botched a Maduro Coup is lying low in Florida

16. History tells us that ideological 'purity spirals' rarely end well

17. The Korean War and the Rebirth of ARSOF

 

1. U.S. readies sanctions on China over rights abuses in Xinjiang

Bloomberg · by Nick Wadhams · July 1, 2020

The Chinese Communist Party must be held accountable for these crimes.

2. China's software stalked Uighurs earlier and more widely, researchers learn

The New York Times · by Paul Mozur · July 1, 2020

This should not be a surprise. But again the CCP must be held accountable.

3. Taiwan practices 'enemy annihilation' after China steps up activity

uk.reuters.com 

A lot of Taiwan military training is making the news. It seems like the Taiwanese are conducting influence operations.

4. Meet the global leadership restrainers: Making America second-rate again

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

My boss takes on the "restrainers/retrenchers."

5. Little evidence that protests spread coronavirus in US

AP · by MIKE STOBBE and NICKY FORSTER · July 1, 2020

This should spark some partisan commentary from both sides.

6. Dollar's dominance to slowly melt away over coming year: Reuters poll

uk.reuters.com · by Rahul Karunakar

Our economic instrument of power could whither. This will make our current economic problems even worse.

7. FBI: Record-shattering surge in gun checks as BLM, 2020 election, virus boost sales

Washington Examiner · by Paul Bedard · July 1, 2020

Some interesting data. It is not the time to stock provisions after the crisis occurs!

8. As China strengthens grip on Hong Kong, Taiwan sees a threat

The New York Times · by Javier C. Hernández · July 1, 2020

As it should. There is probably no issue that dominates Chinese political and military thinking than Taiwan.  

Taiwan is going to need resistance and resilience in the face of the PRC threat.

9. SASC pushes cyber overhaul in New NDAA

breakingdefense.com · by Kelsey Atherton

A "cyber pandemic." Imagine if we lost access to the cyber domain during the coronavirus pandemics?  This from the conclusion is surprising, "Coordinating a cyber strategy within the United States, and putting specific people in charge of it, is a major first step to having a response ready to go.." Is it true do not have coordinated cyber strategy and we have no one in charge?

10. Drone-era warfare shows the operational limits of air defense systems

realcleardefense.com · by John Parachini and Peter Wilson

Drones (UAS) and cyber. Two capabilities we have pioneered but for which we lack adequate defensive capabilities. And air defense has been one of our most underinvested capabilities and air defense against drones (UAS) appears to be a very difficult challenge.

11. Big pay raise, limits on troop moves highlight defense budget measure

Defense News · by Leo Shane III, Joe Gould · July 1, 2020

We must take care of the troops and their families. But I can hear the complaint from the bean counters. Personnel costs are the biggest part of our budget.

12. Army's senior officer ranks are not diverse enough, General says

military.com · by Matthew Cox · July 1, 2020

Sadly this has long been the case.  

I do not know if this is true but I had a senior officer tell me that most generals are identified very early in their career at around the Captain/Navy Lieutenant (O3) rank and it is reflected and it is reflected consistently in their evaluation and fitness reports. I confirmed this anecdotally when I was the SF branch chief and I reviewed records for promotion boards. It was very evident who would become a general officer after looking at their career long evaluation record. I mention that because this is not an issue that can quickly be fixed unless there is a cultural change. It is a 20+ year process to make a general officer. I also participated in a study after retirement with a think tank and we had representatives from all four services review promotion records for their respective services to select for general officer based on how we understood our own service culture for promotions. The mock records were completely devoid of any identifying information as to gender or race. We had a group of 15-20 Army officers (retired O6s- to O8s) who were very diverse in terms or gender, race, and military branch and it was amazing how in synch we all were in recommendations and even in the rank order of the promotion list.

13. Don't allow a vocal fringe minority to cut our much-needed defense investments

dailysignal.com · by Sen. Jim Inhofe · July 2, 2020

We are going to be very fiscally constrained for some time. I think there are going to be significant challenges to defense funding levels this year and for years to come.

14. Here's how to stop the virus from winning

nationalgeographic.com · by Nsikan Akpan · June 26, 2020

I am amazed how many people are in denial about this crisis. I see on social media all the rationalizations and the use of statistics to say this is not a problem. And people are still comparing this to the flu.

And of course, none of those people will take the time to read this and if they do they will continue to deny the problem.

Graphics at the link.

15. The Mercenary who botched a Maduro Coup is lying low in Florida

Bloomberg · by Brendan Borrell · July 1, 2020

What a sad story and an embarrassment to our Regiment.

16. History tells us that ideological 'purity spirals' rarely end well

phys.org · by Richard Whatmore and Katrin Redfern, The Conversation

Some history to reflect upon. And both sides of the political spectrum should take heed of Balwain's words in the opening quote. I see this "purity" every day on social media on both extreme sides of the political spectrum.

17. The Korean War and the Rebirth of ARSOF

shadowspear.com · June 30, 2020

And some final history reading for today.

 


-----------

"There are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of principle. 

- Alexis de Tocqueville

 

"I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical." 

- Thomas Jefferson

 

"A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America than the whole force of the common enemy. While the people are virtuous they cannot be subdued; but when once they lose their virtue then will be ready to surrender their liberties to the first external or internal invader."

- Samuel Adams

 

 

07/02/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 07/02/2020 - 10:09am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.

1. Why ignoring human rights in U.S.-DPRK diplomacy is a grave mistake

2. Bolton's fault? Think again (Korea)

3. USFK commander calls for major combined drills against evolving N.K. threats

4. US commander reaffirms successful handover of wartime role

5. N. Korean broker exiled for handling defector remittances

6. Does the Sunchon phosphatic fertilizer plant produce uranium: Not likely

7. Reflections on the Legacy of the Korean War

8. Phishing emails targeting North Korea watchers grow increasingly sophisticated

9. Elite airborne troop of U.S. conducts descent training in Guam

10. N. Korea dials up recruitment drive for construction workers

11. Moon to reshuffle diplomacy, security teams

12. More clues to what's going on with Kim Jong Un's health

13. Korean War Lessons: What war 70 years ago in Korea taught America

14. N. Korea's 1st Corps faces paratyphoid fever outbreak

15. Man accused of leaking state secrets sent to political prisoner camp

16. The case for a different approach to confronting North Korea

17. FM says S. Korea, U.S. discussed concerns over 'working group' operation amid N.K. criticism

18. Korea spends most on U.S. lobbying

19. Top Moon advisor calls White House diplomacy 'a circus'

20. Kim Jong-un threatens war against South Korea after defectors drop thousands of 'dirty' pics of wife Ri Sol-ju

21. North Korean anthem played at the 70th Anniversary of Korean War commemoration in South Korea

22. China's border corps conducts anti-crime exercises near North Korea

 

1. Why ignoring human rights in U.S.-DPRK diplomacy is a grave mistake

HRNK · by Jeune Kim · July 1, 2020

I cannot say this enough: Human rights is a national security issue in addition to being a moral imperative. Kim Jong-un must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to remain in power.

We should remember President Reagan and the Soviet Union. Against the advice of many of his advisors, he included human rights in his negotiations with Soviet leaders.

A very nice piece from Ms. Kim.

2. Bolton's fault? Think again (Korea)

koreajoongangdaily · by Yeh Young-june 

An interesting OpEd. This is not a critique of Bolton's book so much as it uses Bolton’s book to criticise Moon Jae-in. This is the key point of the OpEd is in explaining the failure of the Hanoi Summit.

3. USFK commander calls for major combined drills against evolving N.K. threats

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 1, 2020

Good words from the Commander (CINCUNC/CFC/USFK). I concur. The priority must on readiness of the ROK/US CFC while still working toward OPCON transition. Despite all the other training that takes place among the components the Theater Headquarters lost valuable training time due to the coronavirus and cancellation of the Dongmeng expertise in February/March. 

I wish the ROK press would use the title of the Commander of the ROK/Combined Forces Command rather than USFK. USFK is a sub-unified command under USINDOPACOM and a force provider to the ROK/US CFC. It is not a warfighting HQ. But most importantly the ROK/US CFC is equally "co-owed" by the ROK. In preparation for the OPCON transition and the eventual ROK commanding general of the ROK/US CFC the ROK press should be focused on this headquarters because it is the most important organization for the defense of South Korea.

Both the ROK and US governments need to implement an education initiative to inform the press, pundits, political leaders, and population about the OPCON transition so that when it takes place everyone is relatively well informed.

Note also the CINC has to play to the "wildly speculative" rumors about troop withdrawal.

4. US commander reaffirms successful handover of wartime role

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · July 1, 2020

OPCON Transition is an important step in the evolution of the ROK/US Alliance and the ROK/US Combined forces Command.

It is conditions-based for the very reason we are experiencing right now. The Coronavirus interrupted training with an effect on current readiness. That must be corrected which may have to come at the expense of a desired timeline to make the transition. The transition must progress in step with sustaining readiness so there are no gaps, seams, or weaknesses in our combined capabilities and readiness as we progress forward.

5. N. Korean broker exiled for handling defector remittances

dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · July 1, 2020

This is very important. Unfortunately, this woman and her family are suffering. But this illustrates the importance of cell phones and remittances. There is a lot of connectivity with the outside world. If remittances can get in, so can information and then it can be disseminated throughout the country via the 6.5 million smart phones in the North.

6. Does the Sunchon phosphatic fertilizer plant produce uranium: Not likely

38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · July 1, 2020

A chemistry class for us all. But after getting through all the chemistry the conclusion tells us that while it is possible they could be producing uranium there, there are no telltale signs of production.

7. Reflections on the Legacy of the Korean War

ncnk.org · by Keith Luse · June 26, 2020

Reflections include thoughts about the military industrial complex and of course the possibility of miscalculation on either side.

8. Phishing emails targeting North Korea watchers grow increasingly sophisticated

nknews.org · by Min Chao Choy · July 1, 2020

Public service announcement for all Korea Watchers: practice good cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense.

9. Elite airborne troop of U.S. conducts descent training in Guam

donga.com · July 2, 2020

A good force projection demonstration. Kim Jong-un, pay attention (and try to get a good night's sleep) I am reminded of that great Airborne theorist Benjamin Franklin

And where is the Prince who can afford so to cover his Country with Troops for its Defense, as that Ten Thousand Men descending from the Clouds, might not in many Places do an infinite deal of Mischief, before a Force could be brought together to repel them?

Franklin knew what little groups of paratroopers (LGOP) could do.

"After the demise of the best Airborne plan, a most terrifying effect occurs on the battlefield. This effect is known as the Rule of LGOPs. This is, in its purest form, small groups of 19- year old American Paratroopers. They are well-trained, armed-to-the-teeth and lack serious adult supervision. They collectively remember the Commander's intent as "March to the sound of the guns and kill anyone who is not dressed like you..." ...or something like that. Happily they go about the day's work...

10. N. Korea dials up recruitment drive for construction workers

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · July 1, 2020

This is a pretty amazing anecdote or maybe a data point. 7000 turned away for being in poor health. Note the comment about the growth of hunger among families in the concluding paragraph.

11. Moon to reshuffle diplomacy, security teams

The Korea Times · July 1, 2020

Oh no! This is terrible if it comes to pass. Making Im Jong-seok the head of the National Intelligence Service will be like giving the keys to then henhouse to the fox. This will be very dangerous.

I wonder about our intelligence liaison relationship since Im is a former radical (or maybe still one) who went to prison for violation the National Security Law for his actions related to North Korea). I am sure the US intelligence community will be very reluctant to share the best intelligence with the NIS if he is at the helm.

And if Lee In-young becomes Unification Minister it is suspected he will try to disband the ROK/US strategy working group. Hopefully MOFA will block him since the working group falls under it and not under the Ministry of Unification.

But this is very troubling for the alliance if these two men are appointed to the NIS and MOU.

12. More clues to what's going on with Kim Jong Un's health

dailynk.com · by Ahn Jong Sik · July 1, 2020

I love Daily NK but recall the original health rumors began with an anonymous source reported by it. The report is what spun up CNN and others with speculation that he may have died in April.

But this is very interesting "analysis" based on interpreting the advanced welding competition at the fertilizer factory.

13. Korean War Lessons: What war 70 years ago in Korea taught America

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · July 1, 2020

I do not agree with very much of Doug Bandow's analysis. The most egregious "lesson" in this list is to "make a decision and stick to it" (which seems to conflict with changing conditions may require changes to policy and strategy). He describes this lesson in terms of the US withdrawal of US troops and ultimately Acheson's announcement that Korea was outside the US sphere of influence (and MacArthur saying Korea was not essential for US defense). I interpret this to mean he would have been happy throwing Korea under the bus in 1950 and allowing it to be dominated by the Communists. Please think about that and how the course of history would have been so altered.

That said every one of these lessons would be very useful for debate in an academic setting. There are many lessons to be learned though I do not think all those lessons would find agreement with Bandow's interpretation.

14. N. Korea's 1st Corps faces paratyphoid fever outbreak

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · July 1, 2020

The front line corps are laid out along the DMZ from west to east:  4 - 2 -  5 - 1.  So the 1st Corps is the eastern most corps.

This is significant if they are talking about the outbreak affecting combat readiness. Note also what happens to family members of 1st Corps soldiers.

But what really concerns me is that all the frontline corps are disinfecting everything to prevent an outbreak. I wonder if this "fever" is "code" for a coronavirus outbreak. Is there a coronavirus outbreak within the military? If so it could be very destabilizing. We had better be carefully observing for indicators and dusting off the contingency plans. Recall regime collapse is defined as the regime's loss of central governing effectiveness - the inability to rule the entire territory in the north from Pyongyang, combined with the loss of coherency and support of the military.  A coronavirus outbreak could lead to that loss of coherency - a breakdown of the military's multiple chains of control. Fasten your seat belts.

15. Man accused of leaking state secrets sent to political prisoner camp

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · July 2, 2020

Perhaps this is a case of "cell phone spying." Interesting that a Chinese broker would be asking about new munitions factories being built in Chongjin.

16. The case for a different approach to confronting North Korea

Small Wars Journal · by Shawn P. Creamer 

Here are my thoughts to complement Shawn Creamer's thought provoking analysis: Unification Options and Scenarios: Assisting A Resistance 

17. FM says S. Korea, U.S. discussed concerns over 'working group' operation amid N.K. criticism

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 2, 2020

It is too bad the ROK/US  MOFA/DOS strategy working group has become a target of domestic criticism. But the criticism really emanates from the ruling party. It is Moon's own administration and party members who criticize it. They actually are using it as the lightning rod for the failure of Moon's peace strategy claiming the working group is blocking South Korean efforts. Instead of blaming the working group (or the US) they need to place the blame where it belongs, on Kim Jong-un. He is the one who is blocking implementation of Moon's vision. It is the erroneous assumptions that the Moon administration has made about Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime that has undermined Moon's vision and strategy. The assumptions have proven false (that Kim would seek peace and reconciliation) so the policies and strategies must change.

It is also problematic because Moon's supporters are now much more open about expressing their true intent about the alliance. We are in for difficult days ahead. And the only one who benefits is Kim Jong-un.

18. Korea spends most on U.S. lobbying

english.chosun.com 

That is quite a bit of money from Korea, Japan, and Israel.

19. Top Moon advisor calls White House diplomacy 'a circus'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Thank you Moon Chung-in. You continue to show that you are no friend of the ROK/US alliance.  But I do fear we are heading to the perfect storm with the alliance. Dark clouds are looming and the winds of change can be felt. 

20. Kim Jong-un threatens war against South Korea after defectors drop thousands of 'dirty' pics of wife Ri Sol-ju

meaww.com · by Kunal Dey · July 1, 2020

This is very likely disinformation and active measures conducted with Russian support. I have it on good authority the escapees in South Korea did not send leaflets as described in these Russian reports. Of course they cannot show us them due to the convenient excuse that it would further insult Ri Sol-ju and infuriate Kim Jong-un. But this is a good strategy to undermine the legitimacy of our escapee organizations who are working hard to get the truth into north Korea.

21. North Korean anthem played at the 70th Anniversary of Korean War commemoration in South Korea

eastasiaresearch.org · June 30, 2020

North Korea subversion at work? The work of useful idiots? Someone's attempt to show solidarity with the North? Is this part of a peace and reconciliation vision? Is this preparation for a unified national Anthem?

Video at the link. Listen for yourself.

We should never forget this is an ideological war between the north and South Korea. The people on the peninsula must make a choice between the Shared ROK/US and values and the "values" of the Kim family regime.

South Korea and the United States share the values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.

The "values" of the Kim family regime are Juche/Kimilsungism, the Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and the denial of human rights to sustain the regime in power.

The choice belongs to the people
.

22. China's border corps conducts anti-crime exercises near North Korea

upi.com · July 1, 2020

This could be an indicator that China assesses something is happening inside North Korea and it must prepare.

 


-----------

"There are many men of principle in both parties in America, but there is no party of principle. 

- Alexis de Tocqueville

 

"I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical." 

- Thomas Jefferson

 

"A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America than the whole force of the common enemy. While the people are virtuous they cannot be subdued; but when once they lose their virtue then will be ready to surrender their liberties to the first external or internal invader."

- Samuel Adams

 

"Indo-Pacific Terrorism, Special Operations, and the Coronavirus"

Wed, 07/01/2020 - 6:12pm

Indo-Pacific Terrorism, Special Operations, and the Coronavirus

Dr. Zachary Abuza (National War College), COL(r) David Maxwell (Foundation for Defense of Democracies), and Commander Alexander Bein (US Special Operations Command) discussed current terrorism and Special Operations Forces (SOF) dynamics for the Indo-Pacific region in the era of the coronavirus. The webinar was moderated by DKI APCSS Professor Lumpy Lumbaca.

7/1/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Wed, 07/01/2020 - 11:03am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Balloon-drop porn smears Kim's wife: Russian envoy

2. Kim Jong-Un was infuriated by 'dirty' depiction of his wife

3. Trump-Kim summit unlikely before U.S. presidential election: U.S. envoy

4. U.S. to leave door open to diplomacy with N.Korea

5. U.S. nat'l security adviser calls on N. Korea to stop provocations, return to dialogue

6. South Korea's Moon calls for U.S.-North Korea summit before U.S. election

7. Moon's adviser urges N.K. to explain demolition of Kaesong liaison office

8. Only Korean unification can end the Korean War for good

9.  Kim Yo Jong threats delayed food aid to North Korea, reports say

10. S. Korea reaffirms commitment to peace on 1st anniversary of Trump-Kim DMZ meeting

11. N. Korea's planned leaflet drop is a no-go, for now

12. Number of incoming N. Korean defectors hits all-time low in Q2: unification ministry

13. N. Korea's grain imports soar in April amid chronic food shortages: data

14, Kim Jong-Un goes missing for weeks again as rumours over 'death' return

15. Kim Jong-Un and the persistence of North Korea

16. Korea-Japan ties get even worse

17. North Korea, Bolton, and a prosecutor make life hard for Moon Jae-In

 

1. Balloon-drop porn smears Kim's wife: Russian envoy

Asia Times · by Bradley K. Martin · July 1, 2020

Pot, meet kettle. South Korean propaganda is no match for the ugliness of North Korean propaganda.  Here are some North Korean leaflets from 2016.

That said, we can do better than this.  We do not have to stoop to the regime’s level.

 

2. Kim Jong Un was infuriated by 'dirty' depiction of his wife

Daily Mail · by AFP · June 30, 2020

Hmmm.... I do wonder what the pictures looked like. They are not below. But the previous ones shown below are no match for the ugliness of North Korean propaganda. Nobody does it "better" than the party's Propaganda and Agitation Department.

 

3. Trump-Kim summit unlikely before U.S. presidential election: U.S. envoy

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · June 30, 2020

I concur. To what end? For either the North or the US? I will keep beating this drum. There should be no meeting until working level negotiations conclude a substantive agreement that can be brought to a summit for approval by the leaders. Summits are not the time for detailed or working level negotiations. But Kim has refused to allow this. And from Kim's perspective he has received nothing from the two summits and the one meeting in Panmunjom a year ago, so it is unlikely he will agree to a summit unless he has a guarantee of subnational sanctions relief.

 

4. U.S. to leave door open to diplomacy with N.Korea

The Chosun Ilbo · by Kim Eun-Joong · July 01, 2020

Everyone should understand we have never closed the door to diplomacy. We have always been willing to talk. It is Kim Jong-Un who has refused to do so and to allow substantive working level negotiations which is where the hard work has to be done. Kim thinks he can play Moon and Trump but must soon realize that we are not going to provide sanctions relief as a concession merely to bring the regime to the negotiating table. It is time for Kim to put on his big boy pants and grow up and have the courage to conduct real diplomacy rather than hide behind his nuclear weapons and soldiers. A real leader would conduct real diplomacy.

 

5. U.S. nat'l security adviser calls on N. Korea to stop provocations, return to dialogue

Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Haye-Ah · July 01, 2020

The NSA is right. It does not get any clearer than this: "we are committed to engagement." Kim is not. He is committed to blackmail diplomacy and his long con in support of his long-term political warfare strategy based on subversion, coercion/extortion, and use of force. Kim should have the courage to allow talks. He is the root of all problems. But we in the US will always get the blame.

 

6. South Korea's Moon calls for U.S.-North Korea summit before U.S. election

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · July 1, 2020

Again, to what end? What is the objective and what might another summit accomplish? I am sure Moon hopes it would pave the way for intra-Korean engagement and support his peace vision. But Kim does not accept his peace strategy and he has made that clear over the past couple of weeks (and Kim Yo-Jong has as well).

 

7. Moon's adviser urges N.K. to explain demolition of Kaesong liaison office

Yonhap News Agency · by Kim Seung-Yeon · June 30, 2020

Yes, inquiring minds want to know. Please tell us why.

 

8. Only Korean unification can end the Korean War for good

The National Interest · by Andrew Yeo · June 30, 2020

Yes, we must solve the Korea question (Para 60 of the Armistice and the unnatural division of the peninsula and the people).

The only way we are going to see an end of the war, and an end to the nuclear program, and an end to the threat to South Korea and the region and the world, and an end to the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people in the North, is to achieve the only acceptable durable political arrangement: a secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for freedom and individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

Some of my thoughts on unification are here.

 

9. Kim Yo Jong threats delayed food aid to North Korea, reports say

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 30, 2020

The Kim family regime – and the Kim family regime alone – is responsible for the suffering of the Korean people in the North.

 

10. S. Korea reaffirms commitment to peace on 1st anniversary of Trump-Kim DMZ meeting

Yonhap News Agency · by julesyi@yna.co.kr · June 30, 2020

President Moon is fully committed to his peace vision despite Kim showing him his assumptions are all false. Strategy based on false assumptions leads to failed strategy.

 

11. N. Korea's planned leaflet drop is a no-go, for now

Daily NK · by Ha Yoon Ah · June 30, 2020

But maybe the real issue is the United Front Department could not actually produce 12 million leaflets (despite the report below that says they produce some 50 different kinds) and maybe it does not have 3000 balloons to launch to the South.

 

12. Number of incoming N. Korean defectors hits all-time low in Q2: unification ministry

Yonhap News Agency · by julesyi@yna.co.kr · July 01, 2020

The regime is taking full advantage of the draconian population and resources control measures it has implemented in response to the coronavirus. It probably has not had this good control of its borders since before the Arduous March of the famine of 1994-1996. Of course, given the recent treatment of defectors in the South, I wonder if they are not trying to escape or if they are they are trying to remain in a third country.

 

13. N. Korea's grain imports soar in April amid chronic food shortages: data

Yonhap News Agency · by kokobj@yna.co.kr · July 01, 2020

Go figure. Remember that Kim Jong-Un has sufficient funds to pay for food for the entire 25 million Koreans in the North. But he chooses not to. He could certainly solve the shortage stated below.

 

14. Kim Jong-Un goes missing for weeks again as rumours over 'death' return

Mirror · by Kelly-Ann Mills · June 30, 2020

Kim remains on his 1 day of work with about a 3 week holiday work schedule.

 

15. Kim Jong-un and the persistence of North Korea

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · June 30, 2020

The regime and the Korean people in the North have proven to be quite resilient. Professor Kelly outlines a number of reasons why the regime will persist through 2025.

 

16. Korea-Japan ties get even worse

The Chosun Ilbo · by Lee Ha-Won & Roh Suk-Jo · June 30, 2020

Unfortunately, I think this is the case. The only way to stop this is for both leaders (Moon and Abe) to exercise personal and decisive leadership.

 

17.  North Korea, Bolton, and a prosecutor make life hard for Moon Jae-In

The National Interest · by Mitchell Blatt · June 30, 2020

Moon is stuck between multiple rocks and hard places.

 

"Do not compromise on national security for purely budgetary reasons. The world is dangerous, and we must always be prepared for anything that might threaten our national interests and security."

- Sanford Bishop

"National security is the first duty of government but we are also committed to reversing the substantial erosion of civil liberties."

- Theresa May

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms. It's by talking nonsense that one gets to the truth! I talk nonsense, therefore I'm human"

- Fyodor Dostoevsky, Notes from Underground, White Nights, The Dream of a Ridiculous Man, and Selections from The House of the Dead

7/01/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Wed, 07/01/2020 - 10:20am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. US using Taiwan as 'last card' may only speed up reunification

2. One China, two Trump China policies: 'peaceful coexistence' v. existential threat

3. Coronavirus: US senators seek review of drug supply chain, citing over-reliance on China

4. USCIRF warns that forced sterilization of Uyghur Muslims is evidence of genocide

5. Deepfake threats would get annual DHS look under proposed law

6. 90 out of 110 soldiers in a survival, evasion, resistance, and escape course just tested positive for COVID-19

7. Bounties are part of Moscow's aid to the Taliban, current and former intel officials say

8. U.S. commandos at risk for suicide: is the military doing enough?

9. Use of military contractors shrouds true costs of war. Washington wants it that way, study says.

10. Beijing approves experimental Covid-19 vaccine for use in Chinese military

11. English translation of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

12. United States not on EU's 'safe' travel list, diplomats say

13. Trump approves Pentagon plan to move 9,500 troops out of Germany

14. U.S. coronavirus cases rise by 47,000, biggest one-day spike of pandemic

15. Hong Kong police make first security-law arrest as thousands protest

16. China is developing a 'nuclear triad' after adding 30 warheads

17. Coronavirus is still with us, but the rules are breaking down

18. Trumplandia v. Antifistan? What if the US breaks up?

19. Abe's Aegis Ashore cancellation doesn't add up

20. Major space force units to be called deltas, officials announce

21. A national mask mandate could save the U.S. economy $1 trillion, Goldman Sachs says

22. Strategy is a journey: thoughts on strategy and stability in an evolving world

 

1. US using Taiwan as 'last card' may only speed up reunification

Global Times · by Yang Sheng · June 30, 2020

This is from the Chinese Communist Party in response to the 1st Special Forces Group training in Taiwan.  Their training has struck a nerve. Sometimes the best PSYOP is unplanned. Or perhaps someone was thinking about PSYOP. This does give some meaning to the idea that one SF ODA can punch well about its weight. It is amazing the power of a 44 second video posted to Facebook.

 

2. One China, two Trump China policies: 'peaceful coexistence' v. existential threat

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · June 30, 2020

Joe Bosco compliments the new approach and says if Trump allows them to continue to implement the policy objectives, "the free world's prospects will continue to improve."

 

3. Coronavirus: US senators seek review of drug supply chain, citing over-reliance on China

South China Morning Post · by Reuters · June 30, 2020

This is an obvious strategic vulnerability. We have to solve this problem.

 

4. USCIRF warns that forced sterilization of Uyghur Muslims is evidence of genocide

United States Commission on International Religious Freedom · June 30, 2020

And this is evidence of the evil nature of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

5. Deepfake threats would get annual DHS look under proposed law

Defense One · by Brandi Vincent · June 30, 2020

I think the threat of deep fakes will continue to grow. While we must do everything we can to root them out and stop them, we must also realize that we will never be able to eliminate deep fakes. In addition to these efforts, we must help inoculate the public against deep fakes, which of course requires education and critical thinking among our population.

 

6. 90 out of 110 soldiers in a survival, evasion, resistance, and escape course just tested positive for COVID-19

Task & Purpose · by Jeff Schogol · June 30, 2020

There is no social distancing at SERE. This is a shock but not surprising giving the nature of SERE training. And the problem is made worse because all the SERE trainees are likely immuno-compromised from being in an extremely weakened state from lack of food and sleep for a long period (when I went through SERE I started at 188 pounds and graduated at 156 pounds). And given the hygiene conditions in the field and in the resistance training laboratory (the simulated POW camp), the trainees likely suffer infections and other illnesses that will further immuno-compromise.

 

7. Bounties are part of Moscow's aid to the Taliban, current and former intel officials say

Defense One · by Katie Bo Williams · June 29, 2020

We should not be surprised by this. And I am sure there is a lot more to this. And of course we need to figure out what effects the Russians are trying to achieve. Simply kill Americans and allied soldiers? Is this simply the way for the Russians to transfer funds to the Taliban? Do the Russians want to undermine the peace deal? Do the Russians want to achieve greater strategic effects by having this information leaked to sow dissent and discord within the US? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

8. U.S. commandos at risk for suicide: is the military doing enough?

The New York Times · by Nick Turse · June 30, 2020

I am surprised that Nick Turse is writing about this, but of course he is happy to write anything that exposes military and especially special operations forces "deficiencies."  Certainly the statistics are troubling. I agree with BG Bolduc that we need to do something better than we are doing now. But frankly I am at loss for what we should do. I know we need a culture change, but the question is how do we change the culture so that those suffering will seek and get help? I am sure we have some of the minds on this problem and I hope they can figure out how to reduce this problem (but it will never be eliminated)

 

9. Use of military contractors shrouds true costs of war. Washington wants it that way, study says.

The Washington Post · by Alex Horton & Aaron Gregg · June 30, 2020

These are some amazing statistics. There were 35,000 US troops in CENTCOM and some 53,000 contractors. And since 2001 some 8,000 contractors have died in the CENTCOM AOR.

 

10. Beijing approves experimental Covid-19 vaccine for use in Chinese military

CNN · by Ben Westcott · June 30, 2020

Will this be a breakthrough?

 

11. English translation of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Safeguarding National Security in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

ECNS.cn · by Zhao Yuning · July 01, 2020

A lot of interesting words here. One Country, Two Systems, Rule of law. Human rights shall be respected and protected. A person is presumed innocent until convicted by a judicial body. I wonder if they think these words will satisfy the international community. This is a Chinese translation. I wonder if a linguist could compare the English and the Chinese versions and determine the differences.

 

12. United States not on EU's 'safe' travel list, diplomats say

Reuters · by Philip Blenkinsop · June 30, 2020

Not unexpected but still difficult to fathom. We are in the company of Russia and Brazil.

 

13. Trump approves Pentagon plan to move 9,500 troops out of Germany

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · June 30, 2020

The article does not specify where they will go (though of course Poland is mentioned for some number of troops).

As I understand it part of the reason for this is to "punish" Germany for not spending enough on its own defense. But doesn't Germany benefit by shifting troops east to deter Russia?  Better to fight Russia in Poland than in Germany?

 

14. U.S. coronavirus cases rise by 47,000, biggest one-day spike of pandemic

Reuters · by Paul Simao & Carl O'Donnell · July 1, 2020

Numbers do not lie. We are in trouble. We really need a national level effort of civic duty on scale we have not seen since World War II to fight this virus. But when the history is written and this humanitarian disaster is analyzed, our partisan and tribal divides are likely going to be the main cause of our failure to stop the spread of this virus. There are too many people in the US who do not believe we have a crisis so they do not have to execute the proper public health measures or support the public health professionals by doing what should be their civic duty. If you are talking about the coronavirus crisis using partisan talking points instead of the science then you are contributing to the problem.

 

15. Hong Kong police make first security-law arrest as thousands protest

The Wall Street Journal · by Dan Strumpf · July 1, 2020

That did not take long (for either protests or to implement the law).

 

16. China is developing a 'nuclear triad' after adding 30 warheads

Daily Mail · by MAILONLINE REPORTER · June 30, 2020

The triad is a logical strategic concept for a nuclear power. I wonder why China did not seek this sooner.

 

17. Coronavirus is still with us, but the rules are breaking down

The Wall Street Journal · by WSJ · June 30, 2020

It is some of the attitudes and beliefs in this article that are the reasons why we are not successfully killing the virus. The anti-science culture and the deniers of the seriousness of the situation are likely the biggest contributors to the proliferation of the virus.

 

18. Trumplandia v. Antifistan? What if the US breaks up?

The Stream · by David Marshall · June 30, 2020

This is probably the most provocative "think piece" in recent times. There is certainly some interesting "data" below.

 

19. Abe's Aegis Ashore cancellation doesn't add up

Asia Times · by Grant Newsham · June 30, 2020

I will keep beating the drum. We need an integrated missile defense system in Northeast Asia.

 

20. Major space force units to be called deltas, officials announce

MIlitary.com · by Oriana Pawlyk · June 30, 2020

Did anyone fact check or crowd source the name?  The Deltas were the drunken fraternity in the movie Animal House. The Netflix show, Space Force will have a field day with this.

I can see this as the headquarters for Deltas welcoming new members who are going through Space Force selection.

This will be how the Deltas participate in courts martial.

And if Deltas are led by O-6's they are going to have to meet this leadership standard for speeches.

My apologies to the Space Force for my attempt at humor. Please do not turn off my GPS.

 

21. A national mask mandate could save the U.S. economy $1 trillion, Goldman Sachs says

Forbes · by Sarah Hansen · June 30, 2020

Maybe this will convince some of the deniers. We can avoid a lockdown and we can open the economy if we implement and execute proper public health procedures (testing tracing/tracking, quarantining, and treatment, etc.) and if everyone does their civic duty to prevent the spread.

 

22. Strategy is a journey: thoughts on strategy and stability in an evolving world

Small Wars Journal · by Robert C. Jones · June 30, 2020

Some food for strategic thinking.

 

"Do not compromise on national security for purely budgetary reasons. The world is dangerous, and we must always be prepared for anything that might threaten our national interests and security."

- Sanford Bishop

"National security is the first duty of government but we are also committed to reversing the substantial erosion of civil liberties."

- Theresa May

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms. It's by talking nonsense that one gets to the truth! I talk nonsense, therefore I'm human"

- Fyodor Dostoevsky, Notes from Underground, White Nights, The Dream of a Ridiculous Man, and Selections from The House of the Dead

6/30/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Tue, 06/30/2020 - 10:41am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. CDC says U.S. has 'way too much virus' to control pandemic as cases surge across country

2. "Demographic genocide": China engaged in campaign of forced birth control against Uighurs

3. SECSTATE: on China's coercive family planning and forced sterilization program in Xinjiang

4.  Swine flu strain with 'human pandemic potential' found in more Chinese pigs, scientists say

5. Senators aim to limit Trump's ability to remove troops from Germany

6. Pentagon releases 'initial' list of Chinese military-linked companies operating in US

7. Diversifying supply chains is a national security priority

8. The 'domestic terrorist' designation won't stop extremism

9. Good cyber hygiene in a pandemic-driven world starts with us

10. US spy chiefs warn leaks on alleged Russia-Taliban plot 'jeopardize' ability to find the truth

11. Japan's aim for first-strike capability

12. GM Defense wins infantry squad vehicle production contract

13. South Korea to spend $2 billion on aircraft buy

14, Chaotic world order and rising tensions with Beijing push Scott Morrison to overcome fear of 'negative globalism'

15. 'Boogaloo' believers think a civil war is coming. These gun firms are openly marketing to them.

16. The madness of mask politics

17. Women should be allowed to join IDF's elite commando unit, former commander says

18. Army releases ultra rare video showing green berets training in Taiwan

19. Senate defense bill may challenge Trump on renaming military bases with Confederate names

20. Military gears up to fight racial bias, a longstanding adversary

21. Reflections on the curse of racism in the U.S. Military

 

1. CDC says U.S. has 'way too much virus' to control pandemic as cases surge across country

CNBC · by William Feuer · June 29, 2020

Are we losing control? Is the virus still containable? The data is not looking good. And the blame lies with all those who have not taken this seriously.

 

2. "Demographic genocide": China engaged in campaign of forced birth control against Uighurs

Axios · by Fadel Allassan · June 29, 2020

The truly evil nature of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

3. SECSTATE: On China's Coercive Family Planning and Forced Sterilization Program in Xinjiang

US Department of State · by Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State · June 29, 2020

 

4. Swine flu strain with 'human pandemic potential' found in more Chinese pigs, scientists say

Fox News · by Bradford Betz · June 29, 2020

Failure to learn, failure to adapt, and failure to anticipate. Will we anticipate this potential crisis?

 

5. Senators aim to limit Trump's ability to remove troops from Germany

The Hill · by Jordain Carney · June 29, 2020

Looks like the Senators will try to adopt similar language to that in the draft 2021 NDAA and has been in the past two NDAAs for Korea troop withdrawal.

Here is the draft Korea language from the HASC and SASC draft 2021 NDAA:

HASC: prohibits the use of funds to reduce the total number of active duty service members deployed to South Korea below 28,500 until 180 days after the Secretary certifies: 1) doing so is in the national security interest of the United States and will not significantly undermine the security of U.S. allies in the region, 2) is commensurate with a reduction in the threat posed by North Korea, 3) that South Korea is capable of deterring a conflict, and 4) U.S. allies - including South Korea and Japan - have been appropriately consulted.

SASC: SEC. 1260. LIMITATION ON USE OF FUNDS TO REDUCE TOTAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS OF THE ARMED FORCES SERVING ON ACTIVE DUTY WHO ARE DEPLOYED TO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. None of the funds authorized to be appropriated by this Act may be obligated or expended to reduce the total number of members of the Armed Forces serving on active duty and deployed to the Republic of Korea to fewer than 28,500 such members of the Armed Forces until 90 days after the date on which the Secretary of Defense certifies to the congressional defense committees that- (1) such a reduction- (A) is in the national security interest of the United States; and (B) will not significantly undermine the security of United States allies in the region; and (2) the Secretary has appropriately consulted with allies of the United States, including the Re public of Korea and Japan, regarding such a reduction.

 

6. Pentagon releases 'initial' list of Chinese military-linked companies operating in US

Washington Examiner · by Jerry Dunleavy · June 29, 2020

The one page list is at this link.

 

7. Diversifying supply chains is a national security priority

Real Clear Defense · by Brad Wenstrup · June 30, 2020

But this of course conflicts with the free market principles. This must be reconciled. Companies act for profit and not for patriotism and national security.

 

8. The 'domestic terrorist' designation won't stop extremism

Defense One · by Arie Perliger · June 29, 2020

Designation will make some feel better and give the perception that something is being done.

 

9. Good cyber hygiene in a pandemic-driven world starts with us

DARKReading · by Yaniv Bar-Yadan · June 26, 2020

Malign actors and hackers will take advantage of the pandemic.  We need good cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense.

 

10. US spy chiefs warn leaks on alleged Russia-Taliban plot 'jeopardize' ability to find the truth

Washington Examiner · by Jerry Dunleavy · June 29, 2020

Yes, leaks can kill. But there are questions as to whether this intelligence was accurate and if American and allied soldiers were killed because of this. And that begs the question, what did we do about it? An argument will be made that, if this was not exposed by the fourth estate, our actions or lack of actions would not be held to account. This is the trade off and friction between the fourth estate and the government and their respective roles.

 

11. Japan's aim for first-strike capability

Asia Times · by Jagannath Panda · June 30, 2020

As I have mentioned it would be great for Japan and South Korea to collaborate on Korea's Kill-chain concept. But with the current state of relations between the two something like that is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.

 

12. GM Defense wins infantry squad vehicle production contract

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · June 29, 2020

 

13. South Korea to spend $2 billion on aircraft buy

Defense News · by Mike Yeo · June 29, 2020

Much of the $2 billion will likely be spent on US platforms and capabilities. But South Korea will get no "credit" for that in terms of the burden sharing negotiations.

 

14. Chaotic world order and rising tensions with Beijing push Scott Morrison to overcome fear of 'negative globalism'

The Guardian · by Jonathan Pearlman · June 29, 2020

But it will not change the minds of many Americans.  They will continue to advocate for retrenchment.

 

15. 'Boogaloo' believers think a civil war is coming. These gun firms are openly marketing to them.

The Trace · by Ian Karbal · June 29, 2020

Shrewd marketing. From what I see on social media we have a lot more people than boogaloo believers who think a civil war is on the horizon.

 

16. The madness of mask politics

Asia Times · by Chris Tharp · June 29, 2020

Yes this is a tragic-comedy. No one should need to be ordered to wear masks. It should be a civic duty. The data is clear masks work (and common sense applies as well). It is so tragic that this had to become politicized. We are going to pay the price for this in American lives for the foreseeable future.

 

17. Women should be allowed to join IDF's elite commando unit, former commander says

Israel Hayom · by Yair Altman & LIlach Shoval · June 29, 2020

 

18. Army releases ultra rare video showing green berets training In Taiwan

The Drive · by Joseph Trevithick · June 29, 2020

Video at the link.

One JCET does not a relationship make. As I have mentioned, I recommend re-establishing a Special Forces Detachment Taiwan as we had in the 1950s/60s (I would go further and reactivate 46th SF Company in Thailand and a new DET-A like organization in Europe and other key locations around the world - it is the best way to develop and sustain long term relationships, ensure interoperability, and provide situational understanding of the conditions and threats in the country and region).

 

19. Senate defense bill may challenge Trump on renaming military bases with Confederate names

The Washington Post · by Karoun Demerjian · June 29, 2020

There could be a lot of controversial items in the NDAA. I wonder if POTUS would veto it. I am sure we will hear threats to do so. But would it happen this year?

 

20. Military gears up to fight racial bias, a longstanding adversary

The Wall Street Journal · by Nancy A. Youssef · by June 29, 2020

The military can lead the way. We must keep making forward progress.

 

21. Reflections on the curse of racism in the U.S. military

War On the Rocks · by David Barno & Nora Bensahel  · June 30, 2020

 

 (BEST OPORD EVER!) ...........................Grant's Orders to Sherman, 1864

In a letter to MG William T. Sherman, dated 4 April 1864, LTG Ulysses S. Grant outlined his 1864 campaign plan. LTG Grant described MG Sherman's role:

"It is my design, if the enemy keep quiet and allow me to take the initiative in the Spring Campaign to work all parts of the Army together, and, somewhat, toward a common center. . . . You I propose to move against Johnston's Army, to break it up and to get into the interior of the enemy's country as far as you can, inflicting all the damage you can against their War resources. I do not propose to lay down for you a plan of Campaign, but simply to lay down the work it is desirable to have done and leave you free to execute in your own way. Submit to me however as early as you can your plan of operation."

MG Sherman responded to LTG Grant immediately in a letter dated 10 April 1864. He sent Grant, as requested, his specific plan of operations, demonstrating that he understood Grant's intent:

" . . . Your two letters of April 4th are now before me . . . That we are now all to act in a Common plan, Converging on a Common Center, looks like Enlightened War. . . . I will not let side issues draw me off from your main plan in which I am to Knock Joe [Confederate GEN Joseph E.] Johnston, and do as much damage to the resources of the Enemy as possible. . . . I would ever bear in mind that Johnston is at all times to be kept so busy that he cannot in any event send any part of his command against you or [Union MG Nathaniel P.] Banks."

The Papers of Ulysses S. Grant, Volume 10: January 1-May 31, 1864, by Ulysses S. Grant, edited by John Y. Simon. Ulysses S. Grant Foundation. ©1982. Excerpt from pages 251 through 254.

6/30/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Tue, 06/30/2020 - 8:52am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Beyond 'love,' Trump has little to show from N Korea talks

2. S. Korea, U.S. closely working for OPCON transfer: defense ministry

3. North rallies people behind leader Kim amid lingering tensions

4. Kim Yo-Jong a sordid example of female leader

5. Is North Korea really prepared to end the Korean War?

6. North Korea is more unpredictable than ever

7. North Korean 'YouTubers' raise eyebrows in South Korea

8. He sends up balloons, and North Korea wants him dead

9. Ministry takes final step to delist defector NGOs over leaflets (South Korea)

10. Deployment of U.S. strategic bombers to Korea has become swifter

11. Seoul police say they're questioning anti-North activists

12. US Forces Korea reports three more coronavirus cases from US arrivals

13. US-North Korea envoy doubts new Trump-Kim summit

14. Time to rethink the US-ROK alliance

15. Christian group continues to deliver bibles to North Korea via balloons

16. Half of coronavirus infections linked to sect followers (South Korea)

17. North Korea defector: I was imprisoned, tortured and sold as a slave

 

1. Beyond 'love,' Trump has little to show from N Korea talks

AP· by DEB RIECHMANN · June 29, 2020

I was queried by a journalist who interpreted this article as meaning the US was seeking another Trump-Kim meeting before the election.

I think too much was read into the anonymous official's comments about the administration seeking a meeting before the November election. He or she was merely speculating about what might be an "October Surprise," some kind of provocation or an "olive branch" which could be an agreement on talks.

That said I believe the administration's policy is that our negotiators are ready for working level negotiations at any time and any place. It is up to Kim to allow that to happen. I do not know if the administration is aggressively seeking negotiations but I am sure it has transmitted messages to the regime it is ready to negotiate whenever he is ready.

I also think it is important to transmit to Kim Jong-Un that an October surprise will have little to no effect on the outcome of the November election. Kim Jong-Un is not that important to the American people. Yes, President Trump has been touting his "foreign policy success" with Kim being the promise not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs but that only resonates with his base and is not going to alter any votes of Democrats or Independents.

It is my belief that Trump should not meet again with Kim until there are substantive working level negotiations that result in an agreement that can be brought to Trump and Kim for final negotiation and signatures. I also do not think Kim will meet with Trump unless he is assured he will receive substantial concessions, in the form of sanctions relief.

Kim remains upset with Trump because Trump has benefited politically from their three meetings but Kim has received no political benefit that can serve him at home. His failure to get sanctions relief is causing tremendous pressure on the regime.

Over the past year (since May 2019) Kim has created a "new normal" for missile and rocket testing. The lack of significant response from the US and the ROK has pushed the unknown "red line" further up the escalation ladder. If Kim thinks he can have an effect on the election through provocation he will have to go beyond the 21+ rocket and missiles of the last year.

The alliance must be prepared for the full spectrum of North Korean actions from a violent provocation to a renewed "charm offensive" of North Korean diplomacy. However, the current friction within the alliance provides Kim Jong-Un with an advantage. In order to be prepared to deal with the North, the ROK and US must resolve the key issues with the alliance and focus efforts on training and readiness.  The weaknesses in the alliance, especially the stalemate over the SMA/burden sharing, provide Kim Jong-Un an advantage and support his objective to divide the ROK/US alliance.

 

2. S. Korea, U.S. closely working for OPCON transfer: defense ministry

Yonhap News Agency · by 최수향 · June 29, 2020

Readiness of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command must take precedence over OPCON Transition. The ROK/US CFC has not conducted a major exercise since 2018. The Feb/Mar exercise this year was cancelled and the August 2019 exercises focused on the Initial Operating Capability (IOC). The command must exercise the defense plan for Korea as the top priority and conduct the FOC assessment as the second priority. If they can design the exercise to do both, that will be good. However, if they cannot, the priority must be on readiness over OPCON transition.

 

3. North rallies people behind leader Kim amid lingering tensions

The Korea Herald · by Choi Si-Young · June 29, 2020

Again, who does Kim fear more, the US or the Korean people living in the North?

 

4. Kim Yo-Jong a sordid example of female leader

The Korea Herald · by Christopher Walsh & Natalie Gonnella-Platts · June 29, 2020

No one should be deceived by Kim Yo-jong's "charm offensive" at the 2018 Olympics.  She is an evil member of the evil Kim family regime.

 

5. Is North Korea really prepared to end the Korean War?

The National Interest · by Bruce W. Bennett & Soo Kim · June 29, 2020

An excellent run down by Bruce Bennett and Soo Kim. My short version à There can be no peace or denuclearization of the North for one simple reason: the existence of Kim Jong-Un and the nature and strategy and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

6. North Korea is more unpredictable than ever

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · June 29, 2020

I do not think Kim Jong-un is strategically unpredictable. Tactically perhaps, but not strategically. He has not deviated from the Kim family regime strategy and objectives or the playbook.

 

7. North Korean 'YouTubers' raise eyebrows in South Korea

The Asahi Shimbun · by Tayuka Suzuki · June 29, 2020

Why does the North's Propaganda and Agitation Department get to conduct its information and influence campaign while the alliance tries to stop escapees/defectors from continuing information operations for human rights objectives? We can do better. We must do better. 

This is an ideological war between the north and South Korea.  The people on the peninsula must make a choice between the Shared ROK/US and values and the "values" of the Kim family regime.

South Korea and the United States share the values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.

The "values" of the Kim family regime are Juche/Kimilsungism, the Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and the denial of human rights to sustain the regime in power.

We should be conducting and winning this ideological war.

 

8. He sends up balloons, and North Korea wants him dead

Foreign Policy · by Morten Soendergaard Larsen · June 29, 2020

We could do so much more than balloons and leaflets (and thumb drives).

 

9.Ministry takes final step to delist defector NGOs over leaflets (South Korea)

The Korea Herald · by Ahn Sung-Mi · June 29, 2020

This is so wrong. This will provide no benefit to South Korea. It will not positively influence North Korean behavior. This will only result in more demands from the North as Kim assesses that his blackmail diplomacy playbook is still effective.

These escapees who are citizens of the Republic of Korea should be protected and their efforts should be supported.

 

10. Deployment of U.S. strategic bombers to Korea has become swifter

The Dong-A Ilbo · by Sang-Ho Yun · June 30, 2020

Good.  Again, strategic reassurance and strategic resolve. We should remind Kim that the seven decades of North Korea indoctrination that makes sure every Korean in the North learns of the devastation inflicted on the North by US air power from 1950-1953 will pale in comparison to what US air power can and will do if Kim makes a mistake and attacks the South. He will not survive.

 

11. Seoul police say they're questioning anti-North activists

AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · June 30, 2020

Again, this is so wrong.

 

12. US Forces Korea reports three more coronavirus cases from US arrivals

Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · June 29, 2020

Travel is a threat.  I wonder if Korea will have to take steps to ban travelers from the US as the EU may have to do.

 

13. US-North Korea envoy doubts new Trump-Kim summit

Channel News Asia · by AFP · June 30, 2020

Yes the coronavirus will make an in-person meeting difficult and unlikely. However, I think Kim will not meet unless he is guaranteed to receive substantial concessions in the form of sanctions relief. And I do not recommend President Trump meeting with Kim until Kim allows substantive working level negotiations and such negotiations produce an agreement that can be presented to both leaders for approval.

 

14. Time to rethink the US-ROK Alliance

Foreign Policy in Focus · by John Feffer · June 29, 2020

Another naive, sad, and dangerous op-ed that plays right into Kim Jong-Un's hands. Some people need to rethink the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives. And, of course, the op-ed blames the US for all the South's ills. The presence of US troops is the most important contribution to deterring an attack from the North. The North is an existential threat to the South and it is in the US’s interest to prevent conflict on the Korean peninsula. 

 

15. Christian group continues to deliver bibles to North Korea via balloons

Persecution.org · by International Christian Concern · June 29, 2020

Keep up the fire. Of course, religion is another threat to regime survival. I would offer that the Korean people will need alternative belief systems when they learn that the Juche ideology and Kimilsungism are lies. The Korean people in the North will be hungry for faith.

 

16. Half of coronavirus infections linked to sect followers (South Korea)

The Chosun Ilbo · by Choi Kyu-Min · June 30, 2020

 

17.  North Korea defector: I was imprisoned, tortured and sold as a slave

Metro.co.uk · by Jihyun Park · June 29, 2020

We have to continue to read about the evil nature of the Kim family regime. These stories must be told, especially when there are pundits who want to give concessions to Kim Jong-un. He and his father and grandfather are responsible for these atrocities. And China is complicit in North Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.

 

 (BEST OPORD EVER!) ...........................Grant's Orders to Sherman, 1864

In a letter to MG William T. Sherman, dated 4 April 1864, LTG Ulysses S. Grant outlined his 1864 campaign plan. LTG Grant described MG Sherman's role:

"It is my design, if the enemy keep quiet and allow me to take the initiative in the Spring Campaign to work all parts of the Army together, and, somewhat, toward a common center. . . . You I propose to move against Johnston's Army, to break it up and to get into the interior of the enemy's country as far as you can, inflicting all the damage you can against their War resources. I do not propose to lay down for you a plan of Campaign, but simply to lay down the work it is desirable to have done and leave you free to execute in your own way. Submit to me however as early as you can your plan of operation."

MG Sherman responded to LTG Grant immediately in a letter dated 10 April 1864. He sent Grant, as requested, his specific plan of operations, demonstrating that he understood Grant's intent:

" . . . Your two letters of April 4th are now before me . . . That we are now all to act in a Common plan, Converging on a Common Center, looks like Enlightened War. . . . I will not let side issues draw me off from your main plan in which I am to Knock Joe [Confederate GEN Joseph E.] Johnston, and do as much damage to the resources of the Enemy as possible. . . . I would ever bear in mind that Johnston is at all times to be kept so busy that he cannot in any event send any part of his command against you or [Union MG Nathaniel P.] Banks."

The Papers of Ulysses S. Grant, Volume 10: January 1-May 31, 1864, by Ulysses S. Grant, edited by John Y. Simon. Ulysses S. Grant Foundation. ©1982. Excerpt from pages 251 through 254.

6/29/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Mon, 06/29/2020 - 9:34am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Retrenchment Syndrome: A Response to "Come Home, America?" by H.R. McMaster

2. The Military We Have Vs. The Military We Need

3. Spies and Commandos Warned Months Ago of Russian Bounties on U.S. Troops

4. China's Sovereignty Obsession - Beijing's Need to Project Strength Explains the Border Clash with India

5. China and the US on a conflict collision course

6. Defense Secretary to Give Trump Options on U.S. Presence in Germany

7. Despite COVID-19, US Can't Afford to Cut Defense Spending

8. U.S. Options for a Consistent Response to Cyberattacks

9. US bases in Japan now vulnerable to missile attacks

10. Retired Military Endorsements Erode Public Trust in the Military

11. Five Critiques of the Trump Administration's China Strategy

12. New Sanctions on Assad Aim to Prevent Atrocities

13. Bullied by Beijing, America's Closest Allies Regret Saying 'Yes' to China

14. Who Gets a Brown Beret? Rethinking Assignments to the Security Force Assistance Brigades

15. Interservice vantage point: The stitching in our values

16. Commentary: Asking Yourself 'The Question' (From the "Steady State")

 

1. The Retrenchment Syndrome: A Response to "Come Home, America?" by H.R. McMaster

Foreign Affairs · by H. R. McMaster · June 25, 2020

Retrenchment will be one of the greatest strategic mistakes we can make in the 21st Century.

 

2. The Military We Have Vs. The Military We Need

defenseone.com · by Gregory D. Foster

A strong critique of the National Defense Strategy and military planning and the military in general.  The author also implies we have an unhealthy civil military relationship.  He sums up the problem here: "At root, our problem derives from our prevailing frame of reference: Defense, narrowly conceived, dominates security, broadly conceived. Military power dominates non-military power."  And there is more in the essay.  As the title notes in two paragraphs he describes the "heavy" military we have versus the "light" military we need.

 

3. Spies and Commandos Warned Months Ago of Russian Bounties on U.S. Troops

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · June 28, 2020

This is certainly troubling and disappointing if we have not done anything to counter this.  Unfortunately I fear we are going to focus on the partisan political aspect of this rather than focusing on Russian/Taliban actions.

 

4. China's Sovereignty Obsession - Beijing's Need to Project Strength Explains the Border Clash With India

Foreign Affairs · by M. Taylor Fravel · June 26, 2020

Are China's recent aggressions designed to divert domestic attention from the coronavirus crisis? Or has the coronavirus made China more sensitive to sovereignty and security issues?

  

5. China and the US on a conflict collision course

asiatimes.com · by Gordon Watts · June 29, 2020

The Chinese academics blame the US.  But note China's actions such as militarizing reefs, etc. (as described in the article).

 

6. Defense Secretary to Give Trump Options on U.S. Presence in Germany

WSJ · By Nancy A. Youssef · June 28, 2020

Sometimes I wonder why we have a National Security Strategy and a National Defense Strategy when we are considering actions that are in contravention to those strategies.

 

7. Despite COVID-19, US Can't Afford to Cut Defense Spending

dailysignal.com · by Elise Stefanik · June 29, 2020

This is going to be a hard sell with many Americans.

 

8. U.S. Options for a Consistent Response to Cyberattacks

divergentoptions.org · by Thomas G. Pledger · June 29, 2020

The title says it all.  We need options.  We need a consistent response.  And yes foreign powers are emboldened to conduct cyberattacks. 

 

9. US bases in Japan now vulnerable to missile attacks

asiatimes.com · by Stephen Bryen · June 29, 2020

We need an integrated missile defense system with Japan and the ROK.  Missile attack may be the main method of attack in the future.  If so, we need an effective defense and counter to such attacks 

 

10. Retired Military Endorsements Erode Public Trust in the Military

The National Interest · by Thomas Burke · June 28, 2020

Civil military relations.  A strong critique with good advice in the conclusion paragraph.  We must preserve the "unshakable confidence" the public has in the military.

 

11. Five Critiques of the Trump Administration's China Strategy

warontherocks.com · by Zack Cooper · June 29, 2020

A very interesting "paradoxical "critique" (e.e,g too confrontational and too restrained). 

Spoiler alert:

Too Confrontational for Administration Critics

Too Restrained for Communist Party Critics

Too Transactional for U.S. Allies

Too Values-Based for Trump

Too Late to Matter

  

12.  New Sanctions on Assad Aim to Prevent Atrocities

warontherocks.com · by David Adesnik · June 26, 2020

One of the best pieces of analysis and explanations of sanctions.

 

13. Bullied by Beijing, America's Closest Allies Regret Saying 'Yes' to China

Foreign Policy · by Salvatore Babones · June 27, 2020

Maybe we should adopt Napoleon's dictum: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake."

 

14. Who Gets a Brown Beret? Rethinking Assignments to the Security Force Assistance Brigades

mwi.usma.edu · by Jon Tishman · June 29, 2020

It will be interesting to see how the SFAB concept evolves, how long it will receive Army support and priority, and how long it will last.

 

15.  Inter-service vantage point: The stitching in our values

militarytimes.com · by Capt. Landon H.J. Ewers · June 28, 2020

An interesting discussion of military and American values.  Also interesting to see an inter-service transfer from the Army to the Air Force and now the Space Force.

 

16.  Commentary: Asking Yourself 'The Question'

militarytimes.com · by Charles G. Ikins · June 29, 2020

Interesting.  This is the first I have heard of the "Steady State."  It is a partisan web site. 

This is a military leadership critique based on recent events.

 

----------------------

 

"There is no rule on how to write. Sometimes it comes easily and perfectly; sometimes it's like drilling rock and then blasting it out with charges." 

- Hemingway

 

"Americans fully understand the requirement of the football field or the baseball diamond. They discipline themselves and suffer by the thousands to prepare for these rigors. A coach or manager who is too permissive soon seeks a new job; his team will fail against those who are tougher and harder. Yet undoubtedly any American officer, in peacetime, who worked his men as hard, or ruled them as severely as a college football coach does, would be removed. But the shocks of the battlefield are a hundred times those of the playing field, and the outcome infinitely more important to the nation. The problem is to understand the battlefield as well as the game of football. The problem is to see not what is desirable, or nice, or politically feasible, but what is necessary."

- T.R. Fehrenbach

 

"It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely."
- John le Carre

6/29/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Mon, 06/29/2020 - 8:03am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korea Rumors: Is Kim Jong Un In Poor Health? After Past Death Speculation, Japanese Official Raises New Questions

2. Angry Kim seizes opportunity to pursue push against Seoul

3. Japan conveys objection to Trump's plan to add South Korea to G-7

4. Guilt and punishment (north and South Korea)

5. Top adviser to South Korea's Moon unsure of North's willingness to denuclearize

6. Defectors' cash aid to family cut off amid tightened security

7. N. Korean Regime Desperate to Keep Elite on Side

8. Japan Is Foolish to Oppose Korea's Participation at G7

9. U.S. House of Representatives puts brakes on reducing USFK

10. N. Korea recently bought phone-tapping devices from abroad

11. China quietly shipping grain to North Korea, port sources say

12. NK paper lauds Kim on his leadership anniversary

13. N. Korea focuses on ending ship-based smuggling on border

14. Gov't holds hearing on defector groups over anti-N.K. leafleting

15. S. Korea to spend 36 billion won to help developing countries' pandemic responses

 

1. North Korea Rumors: Is Kim Jong Un In Poor Health? After Past Death Speculation, Japanese Official Raises New Questions

ibtimes.com · by Wesley Dockery · June 27, 2020

Rumors from Japan have to be taken with a grain of salt.  Three rumors: Coronavirus outbreak in north Korea and Kim is trying to avoid getting infected.  Kim's health is questionable.  The economy is "not doing well." That one is better than a rumor.

 

2. Angry Kim seizes opportunity to pursue push against Seoul

afr.com · Evans JR Revere · June 28, 2020

Evans Revere makes two good points. Kim probably regards the South as the soft target but he may see how far he can go with the US.

 

3. Japan conveys objection to Trump's plan to add South Korea to G-7

english.kyodonews.net 

Not a good sign for trilateral cooperation.

 

4. Guilt and punishment (north and South Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Ko Dae-hoon

A critique of the Moon administration and analysis of the regime actions. Are we seeing Kim execute the "madman theory?"  The regime thinks South Korea is guilty of three "crimes:" It libeled the Supreme Leader, it deceived the regime, and it humiliated the Supreme Leader.

 

5. Top adviser to South Korea's Moon unsure of North's willingness to denuclearize

japantimes.co.jp · by Internal Submission · June 27, 2020

Moon Chung-in said Kim Jong-un had a willingness to denuclearize at the Panmunjom Summit in 2018 but now he is unsure.  Did he look in Kim Jong-un's eyes and see what was in his heart?

And he sticks to his tired old line: Whether Kim will give up his nuclear weapons or not is a function of what kind of incentives the US will provide.  This is code for sanctions relief.  

I would like to know when providing concessions to north Korea has ever resulted in a sustained long term agreement that the regime did not break?  Enduring minds want to know.  

We should keep in mind that providing concessions is a sign of weakness and a sign the north's blackmail diplomacy works.  It will only result in more demands and no reciprocity for any of the concessions.

 

6. Defectors' cash aid to family cut off amid tightened security

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · June 28, 2020

Hopefully this too shall pass.  I am sure the escapees will find creative ways around.  But this shows that it is possible to get money and information into the north.  This should be exploited.  As I have previously mentioned someone should start a sponsorship program just like we do for poverty stricken countries in other regions.  We could "adopt-a family" for $19.95 a month and through an established network we get money to families in north Korea.

 

7. N.Korean Regime Desperate to Keep Elite on Side

english.chosun.com

This is a critical indicator.  Kim's failure to get sanctions relief is putting him under tremendous pressure. His failure is exacerbated by the draconian populations and resources control measures that have shut down the border to trade and smuggling in order to defend against a coronavirus outbreak.  It is pressure from the elite and the military that will have the biggest influence on Kim Jong-un's decision making.

 

8. Japan Is Foolish to Oppose Korea's Participation at G7

english.chosun.com

This is going to be another self-inflicted wound in the trilateral relationship.  But it is interesting to consider Japan's "rationale" for opposition:  the "different stance" it has toward China and north Korea than other G7 nations.  The Editorial board postulates the real reason if it wants to remain the only Asian nation in the new G7/D10.

 

9. U.S. House of Representatives puts brakes on reducing USFK

donga.com · June 29, 2020

Every day this SMA/burden sharing stalemate continues, the alliance grows weaker.  And the threat to remove US troops from South Korea serves north Korean interests, not US interests.  It does not help the SMA stalemate.

 

10. N. Korea recently bought phone-tapping devices from abroad

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 29, 2020

In the encyclopedia entry for surveillance state there is a picture of north Korea.

But we should consider the resource allocation decisions of the Kim family regime and the party.  The money spent on this equipment could be better spent on the Korea people.  But this is another indicator the regime fears the Korean people living in the north more than anything else, to include the U.S.

  

11. China quietly shipping grain to North Korea, port sources say

americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Asia · June 28, 2020

Of course food and humanitarian aid is not prohibited by sanctions.  But this report seems to imply there is more than meets the eye here.

 

12. NK paper lauds Kim on his leadership anniversary

koreaherald.com · by Rodung Sinmun-Yonhap · June 29, 2020

The mafia-like crime family cult - with emphasis on cult.  But lauding his leadership?  How about his leadership failures? - Let me count the ways.


13. N. Korea focuses on ending ship-based smuggling on border

dailynk.com · By Jang Seul Gi · June 29, 2020

This will have a severe impact on market activity throughout north Korea.  Note the rationale for this: stop corruption between local officials and smugglers.  The MSS wants to make sure it gets its cut rather than local officials.

 

14. Gov't holds hearing on defector groups over anti-N.K. leafleting

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 29, 2020

Again, this pains me.  The ROK should be protecting escapees and supporting their human rights work - information to north Korea is a human rights issue.

 

15. S. Korea to spend 36 billion won to help developing countries' pandemic responses

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 29, 2020

South Korea is demonstrating it is a great middle power.  We should remember the ROK has gone from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.

 

-------

 

"There is no rule on how to write. Sometimes it comes easily and perfectly; sometimes it's like drilling rock and then blasting it out with charges." 

- Hemingway

 

"Americans fully understand the requirement of the football field or the baseball diamond. They discipline themselves and suffer by the thousands to prepare for these rigors. A coach or manager who is too permissive soon seeks a new job; his team will fail against those who are tougher and harder. Yet undoubtedly any American officer, in peacetime, who worked his men as hard, or ruled them as severely as a college football coach does, would be removed. But the shocks of the battlefield are a hundred times those of the playing field, and the outcome infinitely more important to the nation. The problem is to understand the battlefield as well as the game of football. The problem is to see not what is desirable, or nice, or politically feasible, but what is necessary."

- T.R. Fehrenbach

 

"It's part of a writer's profession, as it's part of a spy's profession, to prey on the community to which he's attached, to take away information - often in secret - and to translate that into intelligence for his masters, whether it's his readership or his spy masters. And I think that both professions are perhaps rather lonely."
- John le Carre