News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. Moon's new diplomatic lineup raises concerns over alliance with U.S.

2. Gov't fully activates task force on Sino-U.S. row

3. Ending the Korean War won't be easy as long as North Korea exists

4. US News falsely reports that North Korea threatened to nuke US

5. North Korea boasts of new surf resort in bizarre bid to get tourists over

6. North Korea shock: Chilling discovery made in Kim's secret underground tunnel revealed

7. In defense of Park Sang Hak and balloon launches to North Korea

8. Investigation launched into South Korea Bible balloon launching

9. Kim Jong Un blew up liaison office over alleged malicious content on wife, family: Report

10. N.Korea celebrates anniversary of missile launch

11. Hundreds of drones light up Seoul sky with virus messages

12. North Korean hackers linked to web skimming (Magecart) attacks, report says

13. The North Korean refugees supplying PPE to care homes

14. South Korea denies U.S. request to extradite operator of child pornography site

15. Washington's N.Korea point man to visit Seoul

16. Dialogue with N.K. must continue under any circumstances: unification minister nominee

17. Adelaide taekwondo instructor recounts fleeing North Korea 70 years ago

1. Moon's new diplomatic lineup raises concerns over alliance with U.S.

The Korea Times · by Do Je-hae · July 5, 2020

Yes we should be concerned. The perfect storm is coming for our alliance - the SMA stalemate, the revelation in Bolton's book, and the new South Korean national security team. 

2. Gov't fully activates task force on Sino-U.S. row

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020

And yes this is another aspect of the coming perfect storm for our ROK/US alliance.

3. Ending the Korean War won't be easy as long as North Korea exists

The National Interest · by Chung Min Lee · July 5, 2020

Dr. Chung Min Lee is exactly right. Nothing will change as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

4. US News falsely reports that North Korea threatened to nuke US

FAIR · by Joshua Cho · July 5, 2020

Young Mr. Cho continues his defense of the Kim family regime. He accuses US News and World Report of a "ridiculous interpretation" but I think he must really be mirror imaging. He provides us with his "nuanced analysis" of North Korean statements that of course blame the US and defend the Kim family regime.

5. North Korea boasts of new surf resort in bizarre bid to get tourists over

dailystar.co.uk · by Berny Torre · July 5, 2020

I guess the regime needs some more hostages for its blackmail diplomacy. They probably think surfers are bold enough to do this and will also get a lot wild and give them the pretext for "arresting" one more to hold them hostage in support of its blackmail diplomacy.

What we should keep in mind is the resources for this new "resort" could be used to take care of the Korean people who are suffering in the North. These are the type of bankrupt policy decisions that illustrate Kim has no intention of being a responsible leader and continues to deny the basic human right. So the Korean people so that he can remain in power.

6. North Korea shock: Chilling discovery made in Kim's secret underground tunnel revealed

Express · by Joel Day · July 4, 2020

I am confused about the reporting in this article. This is a real clickbait headline. Yes we believe there are some 5000 underground facilities. But tunneling under the DMZ?  We have found four. An engineer who escaped said there were 21 or 22 planned for under the DMZ from north to South. I am pretty sure all four tunnels are sealed off on the southern side of the Military Demarcation Line. I am not sure how anyone could inadvertently walk to the north Korean side. The four tunnels were discovered in 1974, 1975, 1978 and 1990. As far as I know there has not been one discovered since then.

7. In defense of Park Sang Hak and balloon launches to North Korea

Chosun, https://news.naver.com/ · by Suzanne Scholte, Seoul Peace Prize Laureate

The links are to the Korean language article. Suzanne Scholte, the author, and a friend and fellow board member of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) provided the English translation below. She has probably done more to help Korean escapees get information into the North than any other American.

Her message is clear and important. We must stand up for the rights of escapees (defectors) from the north who are living in the South. They should be protected, and their work should be supported by the ROK government. And most importantly, no one should ever back down in the face of threats from North Korea.

And if you are interested in learning more about her work and supporting it please go to the Defense Forum Foundation at this link; https://www.defenseforumfoundation.org/

8. Investigation launched into South Korea Bible balloon launching

chvnradio.com · by Libby Giesbrecht · July 5, 2020

Another troubling report. The South Korean government should be ashamed of itself. Whether the information sent to North Korea is political or religious it should be supported by the government. The people in the North need all information that can be sent.

9. Kim Jong Un blew up liaison office over alleged malicious content on wife, family: Report

republicworld.com · by Kunal Gaurav · July 6, 2020

Again this is likely part of a North Korea (or Russian) disinformation campaign. The escapees in the South did not do this. They are more sophisticated and would not use cheap photoshopped pictures. They would not photoshop in such as "low-grade way" as described by the Russian ambassador to North Korea said. But we have not seen any of these images (of course the North's convenient excuse is they do not want to expose them to further this insult to Kim and his wife). This is a perfectly manufactured excuse to take action against the South. And South Korea and specifically the Ministry of Unification fell right into their trap by blaming the escapees and their balloon launches.

10. N.Korea celebrates anniversary of missile launch

english.chosun.com · July 6, 2020

Yes this is an obvious message. Lift sanctions or we may launch again. This is part of the slow boiling of the frog we are going to see possibly leading up to a provocation as an "October surprise." Of course if we keep exposing the possible surprises Kim may not be able to surprise us with anything.

11. Hundreds of drones light up Seoul sky with virus messages

news.abs-cbn.com · by Agence France-Presse · July 6, 2020

Recall the fantastic light show at the 2018 Olympics (though there was some controversy about pre-recorded aspects of it). This could be an important capability. I wonder if the South can exploit this for military and/or psychological operations purposes.

12. North Korean hackers linked to web skimming (Magecart) attacks, report says

ZDNet · by Catalin Cimpanu

More on the regime's "all purpose sword." This is one of the most important capabilities of North Korea. Watch our Amazon. Everyone around the world needs to be aware of North Korean capabilities, activities, and intent.

13. The North Korean refugees supplying PPE to care homes

BBC · by Tom Brada · July 6, 2020

North Korean escapees giving back to their new country.

14. South Korea denies U.S. request to extradite operator of child pornography site

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · July 6, 2020

15. Washington's N.Korea point man to visit Seoul

english.chosun.com

It will be a busy week. I guess South Korea will waive the 14 day quarantine requirement.

I suspect these meetings might be coming at an inflection point for the ROK/US alliance. This is potentially a very important trip.

16. Dialogue with N.K. must continue under any circumstances: unification minister nominee

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 6, 2020

When you want peace at any cost the cost could be very high in terms of blood and treasure and it could bring an existential crisis to your country.

17. Adelaide taekwondo instructor recounts fleeing North Korea 70 years ago

ABC.net.au · July 4, 2020

A Korean War perspective. We will soon be running out of first person stories from the war.

-----------

"Human dignity and freedom are our constant necessities.  So, let us keep them with us, or let us die with dignity." 

-  Marcus Tullius Cicero

"This is the diviine law of life: that only virtue stands firm.  All the rest is nothing." 

- Pythagoras

"Good people will do what they find honorable to do, even if it requires hard work; they'll do it even if causes them injury; they'll do it even if it will bring danger.  Again, they won't do what they find base., even if it brings great wealth, pleasure, or power.  Nothing will deter them from what is honorable, and nothing will lure them into what is base."

- Seneca, Moral Letters

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. From Global Domination to Losing Perception War: How China Lost Plot, Locked Horns With India at Worst Time

2. 5G Was Going to Unite the World - Instead It's Tearing Us Apart

3. America Is Ripe for Russian Interference This Election Season

4. The stunning hypocrisy of America's criticism on China

5. The United States, National Traditions, and Human Rights

6. Militias flocked to Gettysburg to foil a supposed antifa flag burning, an apparent hoax created on social media

7. The Boogaloo Tipping Point

8. We asked veterans to respond to The Post's reporting on Clint Lorance and his platoon. Here's what they said.

9. Finland rates Taiwan-made masks far higher than Chinese gear

10. China Appoints Protest and Propaganda Enforcer to Tame Hong Kong

11. 'People's War:' Pro-China Communists Claim Credit for 'Sparking' US Riots

12. The party speaks for you: Foreign interference and the Chinese Communist Party's united front system

13. Judge gives Duque 48 hours to suspend US military operations in Colombia

14. Three Kinds of Power: What the U.S. can -- and can't -- actually do about China.

15. You Say You Want a Revolution?

1. From Global Domination to Losing Perception War: How China Lost Plot, Locked Horns With India at Worst Time

news18.com · July 5, 2020

Let's just hope the Chinese Communist Party continues to make mistakes and we do not interrupt it as Napoleon counsels.

2. 5G Was Going to Unite the World - Instead It's Tearing Us Apart

Wired · by Will Knight

As noted, today it is difficult to separate economic interests with national security interests.

3. America Is Ripe for Russian Interference This Election Season

gen.medium.com – by Brandon Yu – 30 June 2020

A sober warning.

4. The stunning hypocrisy of America's criticism on China

CNN · by Tai-Heng Cheng

While this will upset many people, this is a fairly objective Op-ed.  I think the headline editor got carried away and showed his or her editorial bias. It provides an understanding of how China can and does use our own domestic issues against us.

5. The United States, National Traditions, and Human Rights

realclearpolitics.com · by Peter Berkowitz

From the head of State's Policy Planning. It is comprehensive explanation of the State Department's Commission on Unalienable Rights and the tension between unalienable rights and sovereignty.

6. Militias flocked to Gettysburg to foil a supposed antifa flag burning, an apparent hoax created on social media

The Washington Post -

I would bet this is the result of revisionist power manipulation of social media.  Just a reminder form page 14 of our NSS.  

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

7. The Boogaloo Tipping Point

The Atlantic · by Dale Beran · July 4, 2020

An interesting question in the subtitle.

What happens when a meme becomes a terrorist movement?

8. We asked veterans to respond to The Post's reporting on Clint Lorance and his platoon. Here's what they said.

The Washington Post – by Julie Vitkovskaya – 4 July 2020

If you did not read this tragic and troubling story on the Curse Platoon by Greg Jafffe please go to this link and read it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/clint-lorance-platoon-afghanistan/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2

9. Finland rates Taiwan-made masks far higher than Chinese gear

taiwannews.com.tw · by Taiwan News

10. China Appoints Protest and Propaganda Enforcer to Tame Hong Kong

WSJ · by Chun Han Wong – 3 July 2020

I hear that he looks like Dirty Harry in The Enforcer.  He is alleged to proficient with a .44 Magnum.

11. 'People's War:' Pro-China Communists Claim Credit for 'Sparking' US Riots

theepochtimes.com · by Trevor Loudon contributor · July 2, 2020

Hmmm.... I suppose some propagandists would try to claim credit for what is happening in the US to counterbalance the perceived influence of unalienable rights and universal human rights on the people of Hong Kong.

But at least we in American have a recognized and cherished right to assemble and air our grievances against our government.  Despite the feelings of many about what is happening in the US I would surely rather have our protests in our traditions than have to live under the yoke of Chinese Communist Party oppression.

Note this is from the rabidly anti-Communist Epoch Times.

12. The party speaks for you: Foreign interference and the Chinese Communist Party's united front system

aspi.org.au · by Alex Joske

A very long read. The author calls on governments to disrupt the efforts of the United Front Department. To do that we must first expose the population and government officials to CCP strategy and methods.  As Sun Tzu said what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy.

13. Judge gives Duque 48 hours to suspend US military operations in Colombia

colombiareports.com · by Adriaan Alsema · July 3, 2020

Oops.  A lack of Colombian government coordination for the Security Force Assistance Brigade.

14. Three Kinds of Power: What the U.S. can -- and can't -- actually do about China.

National Review Online · by Kevin D. Williamson · July 2, 2020

A strong critique of the "alternating current of populist demagoguery.” 

15. You Say You Want a Revolution?

WSJ - by Daniel Henninger – 1 July 2020

The subtitle says it to me.  The benchmark for revolt is the Declaration.  We are at an inflection point in our history. We can further our great American Experiment in pursuit of a more perfect union and we can do that by exercising our unalienable rights.  But 2020 is not another "American Revolution."  We cannot (or should not and must not) throw out our Declaration of Independence and Constitution.  They provide the way forward for us as a nation.

"If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."

- Samuel Adams

"Every day is lost in which we do not learn something useful. Man has no nobler or more valuable possession than time." 

- Thomas Jefferson

"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both"
- James Madison

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

1. US nuclear envoy will reportedly visit South Korea and Japan

2. North Korea Reiterates its Silent-Treatment Policy Toward US

3. Pyongyang ups pressure on Washington ahead of Biegun's Seoul visit this week

4.  N. Korean state media refrain from criticizing S. Korea for nearly 2 weeks

5. North Korean ex-diplomat says lack of food, necessities intensifying in isolated nation

6. Can virus-hit North Korea economy survive sanctions?

7. Kim Jong Un's fury stems from his blaming Moon for Hanoi debacle

8. N.K. paper calls for following through with Kim's order for 'maximum alert' against virus

9. Sporadic cluster infections push new virus cases above 60 for 3rd day

10. A new team (opEd on the South Korean security team)

11. Osan city holds annual memorial event honoring fallen U.S. soldiers in 1st Korean War battle

1. US nuclear envoy will reportedly visit South Korea and Japan

Stars and Stripes – by Hooyeon Kim – 5 July 2020

I have been queried about this visit, recent statements from Choe Son-hui and Kim Yo-Jong, the potential for an 'October Surprise" (either a summit or a provocation), and the new South Korean security team.  Here is my consolidated assessment.  This applies to many of the articles posted below.

Despite speculation about an October surprise, I do not think there will be a meeting between Trump and Kim and I do not believe Trump or any US president should meet with Kim until after substantive working level negotiations are held to determine an agreement to bring to both leaders for approval.  No useful or practical agreement can be made at a summit without substantive working level negotiations.  We should remember the US has stood ready for working level negotiations since Singapore 2018 and it is Kim Jong-un who has refused to allow such negotiations.
I also do not think that Kim will agree to a meeting with Trump unless he is guaranteed at least partial lifting of sanctions.  Kim Jong-un has raised expectations among his elite and the military since Singapore 2018 that he could "play" both Moon and Trump and would be able to get sanctions relief while still keeping his nuclear weapons, what I like to call his long con. He is upset with Trump because he has provided Trump with a foreign policy "win" by keeping his promise to not test a nuclear weapon or and ICBM. He believes he has provided Trump political capital while Trump has not returned the favor.  Kim's failure to get sanctions relief has put him under enormous pressure from the elite and the military in Pyongyang.  I think this is one of the reasons for not only Choe Son-hui's recent statement saying there will be no summit with the US but also Kim Yo-jong's threats a couple weeks ago.  And we should never forget the what demand for an end to US hostile policy means.  Kim Jong-un demands an end to the ROK/US alliance, withdrawal of all US troops, and an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.  
But the important question is what will another summit accomplish?  What would be the goal?  Just to have another photo-op?  Does anyone believe it would help Trump's reelection?  The fact is Kim Jong-un cannot help or hurt Trump's chances for reelection. He is just not that important to the American people and will not impact the election unless he starts a war.  Although a nuclear test or an ICBM launch may cross an undesignated "red line" in Trump's mind the reaction to such provocations will not impact the election because his base is not going to change their votes and his opposition will not either.  Someone should transmit to Kim Jong-un that he will have no effect on the US election. Again, he is just not that important to the American people.  However, a provocation in October is possible because Kim is both desperate for sanctions relief and he will double down on his blackmail diplomacy to use increased tensions and violent provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
I think Mr. Biegun is going to Korea and Japan to coordinate north Korea policy with our allies.  As you know, his South Korean counterpart Lee Do-hoon recently came to Washington. I am sure that Mr Biegun and Mr. Lee want to ensure support for the ROK-US strategy working group that has recently been criticized by some policy makers in South Korea (as well as by the north) who seek to undermine the ROK-US relationship. This working group has been instrumental in ensuring synchronization of north Korean policy behind the scenes. Contrary to South Korean criticism by those who have no idea how important the strategy working group is, it has not been a roadblock to intra-Korean relations.  The reason that intra-Korea relations are not proceeding is because of decisions by Kim Jong-un. He is the one who is preventing improved relations with the South and with the US.
Given Kim Jong-un's recent actions and statements from his sister and Choe Son-hui, The Moon administration needs to reevaluate the peace strategy and reassess the assumptions upon which it is based.  The strategy is based on the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-un also seeks peace and would engage and negotiate in good faith as a responsible member of the international community.  President Moon needs to build a strategy that is based on an understanding of the true nature of the Kim family regime along with its objective to dominate the Korean peninsula under north Korean rule.  The regime's objectives have not changed in seven decades and the Moon administration must understand that.
Unfortunately, President Moon's new security team indicates that instead of reevaluating the current strategy the administration will double down on it.  The administration has prioritized close contacts with north Korean officials over the ROK/US alliance.  This is unfortunate because neither the ROK nor the US can be successful against north Korea diplomatically or militarily without a strong rock solid ROK/US alliance.  The Moon administration does not appear to have that view.  
The national security team is going to create problems with the alliance and in particular the US intelligence community.  With Mr. Park's appointment as head of the NIS the intelligence liaison relationship is going to suffer.  The intelligence community cannot publicly say this but I imagine the assessment inside the US intelligence community will be that every bit of intelligence shared with the NIS must be considered compromised because it will be shared with north Korea.  Mr. Park's long-standing relationships with north Korean officials places the NIS relationship with the US intelligence community at risk.

2. North Korea Reiterates its Silent-Treatment Policy Toward US

military.com · by Tim Balk · July 5, 2020

Hmm... but they sure do talk about us alot. Sounds like a petulant child.

3. Pyongyang ups pressure on Washington ahead of Biegun's Seoul visit this week

The Korea Times · July 5, 2020

What pressure?  Kim Jong-un has failed to get sanctions relief and I do not think we (and I hope we won't) will give in to the north's blackmail diplomacy and demand for concessions in the form of sanctions relief.  Kim is the one under pressure from his elite and military.  We have the strength and resolve to see the Korean problem (the Korea question) through.  The statements from Choe Sun-hui does not put us under pressure.  We should never again meet with Kim until there are substantive working level negotiations that conclude an agreement that can be brought to the leaders for approval. Despite Bolton and other pundits Trump does need an "October Surprise" summit.  It just will not change the outcome of the election and Kim Jong-un is sadly mistaken if he thinks it will.  Pressure?  What pressure?

4. N. Korean state media refrain from criticizing S. Korea for nearly 2 weeks

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020

The last time that happened was in May 1950. We should never forget all warfare is based on deception.  Perhaps it is because they like the new Moon administration security team.

5. North Korean ex-diplomat says lack of food, necessities intensifying in isolated nation

americanmilitarynews.com · by Asia News Network · July 4, 2020

No surprise here but these are indicators to which we must pay close attention, most importantly the effects of the shortages.

6. Can virus-hit North Korea economy survive sanctions?

The Korea Times · July 5, 2020

It could if it would comply with sanctions.  All Kim has to do is comply with the sanctions.

But as noted the north and the regime are very resilient. But what has made the north resilient over the past two decades has been the growth of market activity to replace the failed public distribution system.  That has been dependent on cross border trade and smuggling and the draconian population and resources control measures have really had an impact on trade and smuggling.  Thus, the people are struggling.  This bears watching though as noted, it is likely to continue to muddle through. But Kim is using the coronavirus as an excuse to further crack down on economic activity and the use of foreign currency and too tighten the control over the people.  This could cause nascent resistance which we have never seen on any significant scale.  Again, it bears close watch of the indicators.

7. Kim Jong Un's fury stems from his blaming Moon for Hanoi debacle

asia.nikkei.com – by Yosuke Onchi – 5 July 2020

Interesting analysis.  Failing to get sanctions relief is one of the biggest failures of the three Kims.  And Kim's playbook only has one real option: blackmail diplomacy.  The blaming of President Moon for the failure may seem like a convenient excuse and a way to save face it is really likely an indication that both Kim and Moon fail to understand the Trump administration.  Neither likely considered that Trump would walk out of the Hanoi summit.

8. N.K. paper calls for following through with Kim's order for 'maximum alert' against virus

en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · July 5, 2020

I do not think there should be any doubt about how worried and scared the regime is about the coronavirus.

9.  Sporadic cluster infections push new virus cases above 60 for 3rd day

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 5, 2020

While Korea thinks this is bad, it is of course no comparison to what is happening in the US.  And I think the Koreans will get a handle on this. But we should take from this that even with some of the best public health practices the virus can spread especially if people are not following the correct procedures.

10. A new team (opEd on the South Korean security team)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

The Moon administration doubles down on the peace strategy.

11. Osan city holds annual memorial event honoring fallen U.S. soldiers in 1st Korean War battle

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020

We should never forget Task Force Smith.

"If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."

- Samuel Adams

"Every day is lost in which we do not learn something useful. Man has no nobler or more valuable possession than time." 

- Thomas Jefferson

"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both"
- James Madison

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. 'The Outpost' Review: At War, in a Worst-Case Scenario

2. The Case for Kissinger

3.  The Next American Terrorist

4. Duckworth to halt 1,100 military promotions if Pentagon retaliates against Vindman

5.  The growing need for a modern aircraft platform for special forces

6.  U.S. Steps up Military Training in Japan

7. Renewing America's Commitment to the Indo-Pacific

8. What Poland wants when it comes to US troops

9. Germany to Shake Up Special-Forces Unit Harboring Far-Right Militants

10. Forgetting Counterinsurgency, Again: Lessons from Reconstruction and Operation Iraqi Freedom

11. Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action

12. HASC Passes NDAA 56-0: 'Yet Hope Remains, While The Company Is True'

13. China urges certain countries to stop using human rights to meddle in others' domestic affairs 

14. Taiwan to re-open consulate on strategically-located U.S. island of Guam

15. The Week America Lost Control of the Pandemic

16. The 2020 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List 

1. 'The Outpost' Review: At War, in a Worst-Case Scenario

The New York Times · by Glenn Kenny · July 2, 2020

Opening today.  An interesting cast.  This is a positive review.

2.  The Case for Kissinger

The National Interest · by Jacob Heilbrunn · June 30, 2020

For those who love Kissinger and for those who do not.  Some food for thought.

3. The Next American Terrorist

thecipherbrief.com · by Bruce Hoffman· July 2, 2020

From one of our nation's foremost scholars on terrorism (and my old boss). I am sure I will receive comments about what some people think may have been omitted.

4. Duckworth to halt 1,100 military promotions if Pentagon retaliates against Vindman

Axios · by Orion Rummler

My promotion to Major was delayed because the Senate held up the confirmation of all Services' promotion lists for all ranks for Tailhook back in 1992. But what I am interested in knowing is whether Vindman was actually selected by the promotion board for promotion to Colonel. It is certainly not automatic just because he worked on the NSC. He is a FAO and the selection rate for promotion to Colonel as a FAO is not that high (I think we are talking about 38%-45% versus 60% for Infantry (which was a couple of years ago). I can almost guarantee no one said to the members of the promotion board to either select him or not select him. So if the board did not select him what is Congress going to do? And if he was selected I am not sure what authority a Service Secretary or the SECDEF would have to remove him without cause. Obviously the services spend a lot of time vetting all the selectees after the list is made before it goes to Senate confirmation and anyone with bad paper that was not presented to the board might be cause for removal but so far as I know the actions Vindman took regarding testifying before Congress were not in contravention of any military regulation. So how does the SECDEF respond? I did not or will not remove him? Will he caveat and say if he is on the list I did not or will not remove him? Or I do not have the authority to remove him (I think only the

5. The growing need for a modern aircraft platform for Special Forces

The Hill · July 2, 2020

I am sure I will be taken to task by the purists as the title says "special forces" but the article is talking about all special operations forces.  As everyone knows there is only one Special Forces (AKA Green Berets) in the US.  But editors, scholars, and journalists use the generic "special forces" to describe what the US calls special operations forces.  We can tilt at windmills or scream into the wind to try to change people's minds, but the journalist and academic community are not going to subscribe to what they consider a nuanced view of Special Forces and Special Operations Force that they feel will waste words and distract readers from the message (as I have distracted the reader here from reading this important article).

6. U.S. Steps up Military Training in Japan

english.chosun.com July 03, 2020

Another use of the term special forces to describe Air Force and Navy special operations forces in this article.

Note the comment from the former Korean military attaché to Japan, [the US and Japan] "conducted joint drills with the U.S. military for a total of 406 days of last year, up more than 40 percent from 2016." Since this is a Korean publication it goes on to note the cancellation of major Korean and US training exercises this year.

7. Renewing America's Commitment to the Indo-Pacific

thediplomat.com · Jim Inhofe and Cory Gardner · July 2, 2020

Some members of Congress are trying to support a real Asian Pivot.  I guess a new acronym, PDI, will have to become ingrained in the lexicon.

8. What Poland wants when it comes to US troops

atlanticcouncil.org · Teri Schultz· July 2, 2020

Deterrence and Defense? (and not caught between the US and Germany)

9. Germany to Shake Up Special-Forces Unit Harboring Far-Right Militants

WSJ · Bojan Pancevski · July 1, 2020

(Another example of the use of "Special Forces" this time with a hyphen).

The reason is significant - ties to right wing neo-Nazi extremism.

10. Forgetting Counterinsurgency, Again: Lessons from Reconstruction and Operation Iraqi Freedom

mwi.usma.edu · by Alexandre Caillot · July 2, 2020

There are good lessons and bad lessons.  We must learn them all and never forget. Remember when all COIN doctrine was purged from Army schools in 1975 when we said we will never fight another war like Vietnam again?

Note the reference to Michael Noonan's forthcoming book.  I was one the reviewers of his manuscript and it will be a mist read when it is published.

11. Crafting Strategy for Irregular Warfare: A Framework for Analysis and Action

ndupress.ndu.edu David H. Ucko and Thomas A. Marks  July 2, 2020

The 73 page strategic monograph can be downloaded here: 

David Ucko and Thomas Marks will not let us forget Irregular Warfare.

12. HASC Passes NDAA 56-0: 'Yet Hope Remains, While The Company Is True'

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. and Paul McLeary · July 02, 2020

13. China urges certain countries to stop using human rights to meddle in others' domestic affairs 

xinhuanet.com

Or the Chinese Communist Party could stop abusing the human rights of its citizens.

14. Taiwan to re-open consulate on strategically-located U.S. island of Guam

Reuters · by Ben Blanchard · July 3, 2020

The CCP will not be happy about this.

15. The Week America Lost Control of the Pandemic

The Atlantic · by Robinson Meyer · July 2, 2020

This will be interpreted politically and upset many.

16. The 2020 War on the Rocks Summer Fiction Reading List 

warontherocks.com · by WOTR Staff · July 3, 2020

My two recommendations are below (and of course both on Korea).

------------------

"Nothing is more wonderful than the art of being free, but nothing is harder to learn how to use than freedom."

- Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn." 

- Alvin Toffler

From 1776 (On writing the Declaration of Independence)
John Dickinson: Mr. Jefferson, are you seriously suggesting that we publish a paper declaring to all the world that an illegal rebellion is, in reality, a legal one?
Dr. Benjamin Franklin: Oh, Mr. Dickinson, I'm surprised at you. You should know that rebellion is always legal in the first person, such as "our rebellion." It is only in the third person - "their rebellion" - that it is illegal.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Four-term ruling party lawmaker named unification minister, NIS chief as national security director

2. Coming Soon: Another Donald Trump - Kim Jong-Un Summit This Year?

3. Kim Jong-Un says North Korea prevented coronavirus from making inroads

4. U.S. envoy to visit South Korea to discuss stalled North Korea nuclear talks

5. Kim Jong-Un Praises North Korea's "Shining Success" Against COVID-19: Report

6.  Kim Jong Un Scolds North Korea Cadres for Complacency on Virus

7.  Top DPRK leader guides Political Bureau meeting over COVID-19 protection measures

8. Kim Jong-un declares 'maximum alert' of coronavirus despite reporting no cases

9. Pres. Moon should lose obsession to mediate for the North

10. Kim Jong-Un says 'far-sighted leadership' prevented COVID-19 from making inroads

11. Gov't postpones final decision on relocation site of Daegu military airport

12. Bolton says Trump could meet Kim again to help reelection

13. Korea, US to Cancel Another Joint Drill

1. Four-term ruling party lawmaker named unification minister, NIS chief as national security director

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · July 3, 2020

President Moon is doubling down on his peace strategy.  His new team is well connected to north Korea.  At least Im Jeong Seok (Lim Jong-suk) was not appointed as the head of the National Intelligence Service. However, he and Chung Eui-yong are now special advisers for diplomatic and security affairs.  This will probably allow I’m to prepare to run for President to replace Moon.

Despite the words to cooperate more closely with the US because it is "our ally," Suh Hoon, the director of national security says he will not neglect communication with our neighbors.  I expect him to reach out to China soon.

I fear further divergence in the alliance.

2. Coming Soon: Another Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un Summit This Year?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · July 2, 2020

The only leader who really wants another summit is President Moon who somehow thinks this will jump start intra-Korea relations to support his "peace strategy."

I think it is a wasted effort.  I think there is little chance of it happening. But the more important question is what will it accomplish?  What positive effect will it have?
 

I think it is unlikely to happen for two reasons:

Frist, while some of Trump's partisan political advisors might think it could be a useful distraction - the professional political advisers know it will not change votes and will only support campaign rhetoric with the base while the opposition will use it to their benefit.  The only way it could have some impact is if a real substantive agreement could be reached but even then given all the other issues in the campaign it will still not have a significant effect and will not change votes in a meaningful way.  In addition, the foreign policy professionals will strongly recommend against a summit but we know Trump marches to the beat of his own drum.

I do not think Kim would agree to a summit for two reasons. First he is upset with Trump because he has provided him with political benefits by promising to halt rests of nuclear weapons and ICBM and he has kept that promise.  This allows Trump to declare a foreign policy win.  Kim has received nothing in return.  His failure to obtain sanctions relief has put him under enormous pressure.

The second reason is related to the first. Unless the US makes a promise to provide sanctions relief in return for a meeting Kim will not likely agree to one.  He cannot attend a fourth meeting and come away with nothing again.

My recommendation is that President Moon and his administration stop pursuing this.  I hope this was the final attempt. It makes him seem desperate. It makes him seem out of touch with the reality of both Kim and Trump and their relationship.  I really do believe that Moon has to completely reassess his strategy to deal with Kim Jong-un as he really is and not as he would wish him to be.  

Unfortunately this is unlikely now with the appointment of Moon's new security team. I expect they will be doubling down on Moon's peace strategy.

3. Kim Jong Un says North Korea prevented coronavirus from making inroads

Reuters · by Sangmi Cha· July 2, 2020

Reading between the lines I think that the use of 'inroads" means that the coronavirus has penetrated the north.  Given the politburo meeting today and the recent report on the paratyphoid fever outbreak in 1st Corps I think they are covering up an outbreak.

There is a lot of reporting on this meeting today.

4. U.S. envoy to visit South Korea to discuss stalled North Korea nuclear talks

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith · July 3, 2020

The DEPSECSTATE has his work cut out for him with the Moon Administration's new security team.  I hope he is not walking into a near ambush and all the important behind the scenes work he has done (e.g., strategy working group) is not undone by this new team.

5. Kim Jong-Un Praises North Korea's "Shining Success" Against COVID-19: Report

ndtv.com · by Agence France-Presse

He doth "praise" too much. (Apologies to Shakespeare). The only success may be how well they have covered up the outbreaks.  But Kim might learn from the US, it may be too early to take a victory lap.

6.  Kim Jong Un Scolds North Korea Cadres for Complacency on Virus

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 3, 2020

Regarding Kim's reappearance after a few weeks: This is an interesting development.  If the report is accurate and if the discussion was about a  COVID-19 response I think it is very likely they have had an outbreak within north Korea or they expect to have one soon.  Although they have implemented draconian population and resources control measures to prevent the spread of the infection it is likely that COVID 19 has penetrated the north's boundaries. We have seen a bit of anecdotal reporting such as the report of a paratyphoid fever outbreak in the 1st Corps area along the eastern part of the DMZ. (https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-1st-corps-faces-paratyphoid-fever-outbreak/)  All the frontline corps have been ordered to disinfect everything in their area of operations.  This makes me think perhaps they are having an outbreak of COVID 19 but do not want to admit it either internal or external audiences.  And if there is a breakout within the military it will be especially problematic for the regime if it cannot be contained.  If there is a breakdown in the three chains of control of the military (traditional, political, ands security) we could see serious problems for the regime it is occurs on a widespread basis since the regime is dependent on a coherent military capability and support for the regime in order for Kim Jong-un and the Paektu bloodline to survive.

As to Kim's extended absences it seems like he is working one day and then taking a three day holiday before he comes back to work the next day.  I think we can only speculate on the reason for this.  We have heard the many rumors about his ill health and alleged botched operations but the simplest explanation may be he is quarantining to protect himself from exposure to COVID -19.  He is only making appearances when he has to give orders and direction or if the rumor mill about his health becomes too active.
Despite our inability to know what is happening with any certainty, the ROK/US alliance must remain vigilant, observing for indications and warnings for the full spectrum of conflict and contingencies.  Now is not the time to be distracted with ROK/US alliance "friction" such as the SMA stalemate and OPCON transitions and other alliance issues or President Moon's peace strategy which Kim Jong-un has proved is ineffective and unattainable. The alliance must be focused on the existential threat from the north.

7. Top DPRK leader guides Political Bureau meeting over COVID-19 protection measures

xinhuanet.com

This is a Chinese Communist Party report on the north Korean Politburo meeting.  I like the title.  So Kim Jong-un is the "top DPRK leader."  Would there be any confusion over who is the leader of north Korea? 

8. Kim Jong-un declares 'maximum alert' of coronavirus despite reporting no cases

Express · by Melanie Kaidan · July 3, 2020

The closed borders have been helping of course.  But the conclusion of the article notes the cost of defecting is rising and that to cross the Tumen River (the border with Russia) it costs about 10,000,000 Korean won.  I doubt very much smugglers and brokers are taking Korean won.  They most likely take only foreign currency (which is one reason the regime is trying to gain control of and eliminate the use of it throughout the north). 

9. Pres. Moon should lose obsession to mediate for the North

donga.com · July 3, 2020

I concur.  Not because the President is not trying as hard as he can but because Kim Jong-un just will not allow such mediation and it is naive to think that he will.  It is also naïve to think he has given up on his objectives, his long con, or his political warfare strategy to dominate the peninsula (by force if necessary and the conditions are right).  Plus it is unseemly when there is the appearance of taking the north Korean side which many if not all his new advisers can be expected to do when dealing with the US.

10. Kim Jong Un says 'far-sighted leadership' prevented COVID-19 from making inroads

republicworld.com · Kunal Gaurav· July 3, 2020

I offer this seemingly repetitive report to illustrate the creativity of all these headline editors and their variations on describing the north Korean politburo meeting as well as to emphasize the amount of news this meeting and Kim's reappearance after a few weeks is generating.  Everyone is tracking the question: "Where is Waldo's friend, Kim Jong-un. 

11. Gov't postpones final decision on relocation site of Daegu military airport

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · July 3, 2020

I assume this is K2 Air Base.  It has long been a challenge bringing in wide body aircraft to this base especially when E/160th SOAR was based there and we were rotating MH-47s from there to Afghanistan early in OEF Afghanistan (and supporting OEF Philippines early on as well).  I hope this does not turn out to be like Futenma in Okinawa.  But probably not since this is a ROK Air Force base and US units are only tenants for exercises. Then again the local governments and population have a vote which is of course the same problem in Okinawa.

12. Bolton says Trump could meet Kim again to help reelection

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 3, 2020

I hope everyone knows that such a meeting will have no effect on the election.  It will not change the minds of Democrats, Independents nor of the Trump base.  Yes it will provide a campaign talking point but the opposition will also spin it negatively. I am sure both the campaign team and the national security professionals are advising against this.  And of course Kim Jong-un gets a vote and I just do not see him coming to a meeting without absolute guarantees that he is going to get sanctions relief and we absolutely should do no such thing.

13. Korea, US to Cancel Another Joint Drill

english.chosun.com

Oh no.  I missed this.  I am afraid we are going to have some readiness challenges at the ROK/US Combined Forces Command.  Yes to be with a thousand of your best friends inside a bunker for two weeks will be a coronavirus petri dish.

-------------------

"Nothing is more wonderful than the art of being free, but nothing is harder to learn how to use than freedom."

- Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn." 

- Alvin Toffler

From 1776 (On writing the Declaration of Independence)
John Dickinson: Mr. Jefferson, are you seriously suggesting that we publish a paper declaring to all the world that an illegal rebellion is, in reality, a legal one?
Dr. Benjamin Franklin: Oh, Mr. Dickinson, I'm surprised at you. You should know that rebellion is always legal in the first person, such as "our rebellion." It is only in the third person - "their rebellion" - that it is illegal.