The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FBI Opens a China-Related Counterintelligence Investigation Every 10 Hours

2. The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

3. China's Confucius Institutes Attempt to Rebrand Following Backlash

4. China challenges U.S. to cut nuclear arsenal to matching level

5. Seven Candidates Battling for WTO Leadership

6. Opinion | How Trump is losing Asia

7. Election Experts Warn of November Disaster

8. Practicing What We Preach: Committing to the Women, Peace, and Security Strategy Here at Home

9. Diversity is America's Untapped Competitive Edge

10. Is free speech under threat from 'cancel culture'? Four writers respond

11. A global strategy for shaping the post-COVID-19 world

12. Army Was Reviewing More Than Confederate Base Names, Officials Reveal

13. Want Better Strategists? Start With a Better Definition of Strategy

14. History Shows That Sustained, Disruptive Protests Work

15. Trump Pushed CIA to Give Intelligence to Kremlin, While Taking No Action Against Russia Arming Taliban

16. Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?

17. The Limits of Intuition: Army Intelligence Should Embrace Analytic Tradecraft Standards

18. The U.S. Is Trying to Turn China Into the Next Iran

 

1. FBI Opens a China-Related Counterintelligence Investigation Every 10 Hours

defenseone.com · by Frank R. Konkel· July 8, 2020

That is a jarring statistic to me.  When does the FBI have any time to investigate the cases?  We have seen the reports of China pressing hard to obtain information from our universities and research institutions to help with the pandemic.

 

2. The Political Logic of China's Strategic Mistakes

project-syndicate.org · by Minxin Pei · July 8, 2020

I certainly hope China keeps making mistakes.  But this is quite an assessment.  Yes Minxin Pei says the problems stem from over-concentration of power in Xi's hands but adds this: "a more important reason for the Chinese government's self-destructive policies: the mindset of the Communist Party of China (CPC)."  He goes on to provide a description of the CPC (CCP) world view and what it means.

 

3. China's Confucius Institutes Attempt to Rebrand Following Backlash

National Review Online · by Zachary Evans · July 8, 2020

No amount of rebranding should be able to remove the subversion and propaganda stick of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

4. China challenges U.S. to cut nuclear arsenal to matching level

Reuters · by Yew Lun Tian · July 8, 2020

I suppose 300 or so nuclear weapons is still enough to destroy the world.  But all this means is that China has no intention of participating because they know the US is not going to agree to the kind of demand or condition for negotiation. 

 

5. Seven Candidates Battling for WTO Leadership

english.chosun.com  · July 9, 2020

 

6. Opinion | How Trump is losing Asia

The Washington Post · by  Robert D. Kaplan

This is one of the strongest critiques of our policies and actions in Asia.  He provides these two critical conclusions: " What is now tethering the United States' Asian allies to Washington is less confidence in the United States than outright fear of China" and "It is all about geography: China's very size and proximity make a sturdy and unquestioning U.S. regional order essential for the power balance in Asia."  We need our alliance system.  We need the right trade agreements.  We need forward presence.  We need engagement with our friends, partners, and allies.  We need to demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve.

 

7. Election Experts Warn of November Disaster

defenseone.com · by Matt Vasilogamrbos

We should learn from the primary experiences this year.

The federal, state, and local governments, along with every election official and both the Republican and Democratic parties must do everything within their power, expend all necessary resources, and implement all the correct safeguards to ensure the absolute legitimacy of our election process.  to do anything less is the height of irresponsibility.  Our election process is under attack from outside and from within and it will take an integrated national, state, and local effort to defend against those threats.  To do anything less than our best is to undermine our federal democratic republic and our democratic processes.

8. Practicing What We Preach: Committing to the Women, Peace, and Security Strategy Here at Home

realcleardefense.com · by Mackenzie Eaglen

Rep. Mike Waltz is stepping up.  

Mackenzie Eaglen makes a key point here: "But in order to increase policymaker engagement, there must first be awareness. Despite its history, the Women, Peace and Security agenda is hardly an issue that the American public engages with frequently or passionately."  I was made aware of these efforts some years ago by my good friend Robert Egnell from Sweden who is one of the few men to work on these issues. He now heads the Swedish National Defense University (he is the rector).

 

9. Diversity is America's Untapped Competitive Edge

inkstickmedia.com · by Laicie Heeley · July 8, 2020

Perhaps we should think of diversity as joint-ness.  Joint-ness does not equal sameness.  We bring the incredible capabilities of the joint force together to fight and win.  We need to bring together the diverse capabilities of Americans to support our national security.

This article also critiques our broker human capital system and the security clearance process.  And this author concludes with this important statement: "This isn't a partisan issue - it is a national security imperative. Not only because it's right or fair, but because diverse teams are smarter, faster, and more innovative - in other words, better."

 

10. Is free speech under threat from 'cancel culture'? Four writers respond

The Guardian · by Nesrine Malik · July 8, 2020

The Harper's letter did have a lot of interesting signatories. The letter can be accessed here: https://harpers.org/a-letter-on-justice-and-open-debate/. It has stirred up quite a bit of controversy.

 Below is some critical food for thought in response to the letter.

 

11. A global strategy for shaping the post-COVID-19 world

atlanticcouncil.org · July 7, 2020

The graphic at the end asks and answers the question of why save a rules based order? 

 

12. Army Was Reviewing More Than Confederate Base Names, Officials Reveal

defenseone.com · by Kate Bo Williams

Was the Army thwarted from doing the right thing by a tweet?

 

13. Want Better Strategists? Start With a Better Definition of Strategy

realcleardefense.com · by Jeffrey Meiser and Patrick Quirk

I am surprised the authors do not reference the late Terry Deibel of the National War College and his seminal work on strategy. (see chapter one of his book Foreign Affairs Strategy, Chapter 1 Introduction - Defining Strategy:  )

But they are right that there is not a commonly accepted definition of strategy

 

14. History Shows That Sustained, Disruptive Protests Work

YES! Magazine · by Kevin A. Young

We are at an inflection point in US history. We just had the largest civil protests in our history.  Can those protests be turned into positive change?

Some interesting analysis below to which I am sure many will take exception.  But it is important to understand the author's thesis in today's context when there are some reports of polling that shows a majority of Americans actually support many of the goals of the protests (though some of those goals cause hard push back from some of the partisan tribes in the US).

 

15. Trump Pushed CIA to Give Intelligence to Kremlin, While Taking No Action Against Russia Arming Taliban

justsecurity.org · by Ryan Goodman · July 8, 2020

 

16.  Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?

Foreign Affairs · by Michael Green and Evan Medeiros · July 8, 2020

I certainly hope not. I think it could cause conflict.  This situation should be different in that despite its ejection from the UN and the One China Policy, Taiwan is de facto a sovereign state or at least it is more sovereign than Hong Kong ever was.  But as the authors note China seems to be more willing to take risks.

 

17. The Limits of Intuition: Army Intelligence Should Embrace Analytic Tradecraft Standards

warontherocks.com · by James Kwoun · July 8, 2020

I would add Clausewitz' concept of coup d'oeil (and the inward looking eye!) which is based on education and experience that allow commanders to make decisions in the fog and friction of war with less than perfect information.  As he said: "When all is said and done, it really is the commander's coup d'œil, his ability to see things simply, to identify the whole business of war completely with himself, that is the essence of good generalship." 

 

18. The U.S. Is Trying to Turn China Into the Next Iran

Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · July 9, 2020

The title is clickbait. But I think the subtitle sums it up. 

 

-----------------

 

"I've spent the last 25 years studying genocide. I've learned that the belief that human society is perfectible through the zealous application of ideology tends not to end well."

- Alex Bellamy

 

"When proven wrong, the wise man will correct himself and the ignorant will keep arguing."

- Ali ibn Abi Talib

 

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, conn a ship, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve an equation, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." 

- Robert Heinlein

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. FDD | New South Korean National Security Team Has Close Ties to Pyongyang

2. South Koreans Angry at North Korean YouTubers"

3.  The Ethical and Strategic Problem of North Korean Workers Abroad

4. New satellite imagery shows activity at suspected North Korean nuclear facility

5. Wollo-ri Nuclear Facility

6. North Korea nuclear programme: Seoul hopes Trump can learn the art of the 'small deal'

7. S. Koreans Have 3rd-Most Powerful Passports in the World

8. U.S. envoy plays down expectations for North Korea meet, but ready to talk

9. North Korea's Terminology Deception Tactics: The Word "Democracy" as Explained by Former Public Security Prosecutor Koh Young-ju

10. New US-North Korea talks still off the table

11. Disruption and Realignment Are Necessary for Peace in Korea

12. How Do Unification Politics Thwart Ending the Korean War?

13. In Seoul, Biegun says U.S. supports inter-Korean efforts: Deputy secretary of state makes clear he doesn't obey North or Bolton

14. U.S. "strongly supports" S. Korea-DPRK cooperation: U.S. nuke envoy

15. U.S. sees importance of North Korea talks despite tension, South says

16. Esper again says N. Korea and Iran are 'rogue states'

17. Source: "Nuclear facility" in Pyongyang is just a school

18. N. Korea increases number of guard posts in Hyesan

19. N. Korean military orders soldiers to "breed more rabbits"

20. S. Korea's virus infections slightly decline, but spread continues beyond capital

21. S. Korea to spend big on development of COVID-19 vaccine, drug

 

1. FDD | New South Korean National Security Team Has Close Ties to Pyongyang

fdd.org · by David Maxwell Senior Fellow · July 8, 2020

 

2. South Koreans Angry at North Korean YouTubers"

Note from a journalist friend: 

North Korea is using YouTube in its propaganda against the US and South Korea.

North Korean government is allegedly using YouTube to create an impression that life in North Korea is normal despite coronavirus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce0I3zYH4fM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4g-MMPGNLY&t=36s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ce0I3zYH4fM

I have watched this YouTube channel.  Pretty slick videos.  north Korea is entering the 21st Century information age.  And of course these videos are going to appeal to the younger generations who get their news from YouTube, I had a long discussion with my daughter about the YouTube viewing habits of college students.  She showed me a list of news sites where many young people get their news which is filtered through a YouTube personality. (Some of it is way better than Fox and CNN and MSNBC).  But young people will go to this north Korean YouTube channel and be influenced to believe north Korea is an okay country that is just misunderstood and treated badly by the outside world.

As I look through the comments section it is obvious there are people watching these videos who have no idea of the evil nature of the Kim family regime and the human rights atrocities that are committed against the Korean people living in the north.  Their comments reveal they are getting a positive view of the north without any critical analysis.  Again, north Korea is operating in the information age trying to influence external audiences through one of the largest platforms in the cyber domain while at the same time cutting off its own people from all outside information.

This is why the US Agency for Global Media, and Radio Free Asia and Voice of America are so important. The Korean people in the north need the news and information provided by RFA and VOA.  But we need a more comprehensive information and influence strategy that goes beyond RFA and VOA (we need them to simply execute their mission within their charter).  We need the USAGM's Open Technology Fund to invest in capabilities to break down the north Korean cyber firewall and allow penetration of the north's intranet and as well as the internal cell phone network consisting of some 6.5 million smart phones.  We need get technology and software solutions to the Korean people in the north so they can have access to the full range of information and truth about the outside world as well the knowledge of universal human rights and how their own human rights are being violated by the despotic regime that is the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
   
We have proposed elements of an information and influence strategy in the final chapter of this report, Maximum Pressure 2.0A Plan for North Korea, at this link.

 

3.  The Ethical and Strategic Problem of North Korean Workers Abroad

HRNK  · Haley Noah · July 7, 2020

Little is known about north Korean workers abroad.  This essay provides some useful background.  Note the loopholes in the UN Security Council resolutions.  These workers are an important source of revenue for the Kim family regime.  This is an ethical and national security issue as not only are these people virtually slaves for the regime, their work contributes to the survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.

Belowis a message from my friend and colleague who is the Executive Directive of HRNK.  I will continue to send these essays from our young professionals.

Please remember Kathy Chi.

 

Dear Colleague,

These are trying times. Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), including HRNK, are fighting hard to stay afloat. And there is always opportunity in crisis. This summer, HRNK has seen a record number of highly qualified candidates apply for our internship program. Our intern team is larger than usual. Our interns bring unmatched enthusiasm and desire for positive change to the field of North Korean human rights.

This summer, HRNK has initiated a Young Professionals' Writing Program (YPWP). Articles authored by young scholars who have offered to volunteer for HRNK are being published under the HRNK YPWP program, on HRNK's NKHiddenGulag blog.

We look forward to receiving your feedback and critique as well as working together on developing these young, bright, and enthusiastic young professionals into North Korean human rights defenders.

HRNK staff members and interns wish to dedicate this program to our colleague Katty Chi. A native of Chile and graduate of the London School of Economics, Katty became a North Korean human rights defender in her early 20s. Katty was chief of international affairs with the North Korea Strategy Center (NKSC) in Seoul from 2010 to 2014 and worked with the Seoul Office of Liberty in North Korea (LinK) from 2019 to 2020. A remarkable member of our small North Korean human rights community, Katty brought inspiration and good humor to all. Katty passed away in Seoul this past May, at the young age of 32. She is survived by her parents and brother living in Chile. With the YPWP series, we endeavor to honor Katty's life and work.

 Greg Scarlatoiu

Executive Director

Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK)

 

4. New satellite imagery shows activity at suspected North Korean nuclear facility

CNN · by Zachary Cohen

Images at the link.  I look forward to the assessments by north Korea nuclear experts.

We should always remember that north Korea is masterful at denial and deception.  They know our satellites (intelligence and commercial) are watching.  We should consider that they are showing us something for a deliberate purpose.  We may be seeing what they want us to see.  The question is what do they not want us to see?  What are we missing?

 

5 Wollo-ri Nuclear Facility

armscontrolwonk.com · by Jeffrey Lewis

Additional analysis on the suspected nuclear site.  Again are they deliberate showing us what they want us to see and the question is what do they not want us to see?  What are we missing?

 

6. North Korea nuclear programme: Seoul hopes Trump can learn the art of the 'small deal'

english.chosun.com· by John Power · July 9, 2020

A small deal is a bad deal.  A small deal means Kim is successfully executing his "long con" to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear program.  A small deal confirms to Kim that blackmail diplomacy continues to work for the regime and we should expect more of it.

 

7. S.Koreans Have 3rd-Most Powerful Passports in the World

english.chosun.com

The buried lead is that north Korea is allowed visa-free travel to 39 countries.  I wonder what are those countries?  And can we get any of them to revoke the north's visa free access?  And since north is also ranked 103 why is it ahead of some 88 other countries?

 

8. U.S. envoy plays down expectations for North Korea meet, but ready to talk

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith· July 8, 2020

Mr. Biegun makes it absolutely clear we did not request a meeting with north Korea.

And he rebuked both Choe Son-hui and John Bolton for their "old thinking."

 

9. North Korea's Terminology Deception Tactics: The Word "Democracy" as Explained by Former Public Security Prosecutor Koh Young-ju

eastasiaresearch.org · July 8, 2020

Excellent analysis from Dr. Tara O and Koh Young-ju.  It is imperative we understand this form of psychological operations. Some of the key phrases: 'even communism is a kind of democracy.' 'Communism is proletariat democracy, where the proletariat are the masters, so communism is also a kind of democracy.' 'National Liberation Democratic Revolution' "I am also a democracy," and then "I am the real democracy."

 

10. New US-North Korea talks still off the table

asiatimes.com · by Mitch Shin · July 8, 2020

Note the criticisms of the new national security team just appointed in the Moon administration. 

I would also take excerpts from Bolton's book with a grain of salt.  

 

11. Disruption and Realignment Are Necessary for Peace in Korea

The National Interest · by Scott A. Snyder · July 8, 2020

Scott Snyder provides a very succinct history of the Korean peninsula from post WWII to the present. with an assessment of the current conditions.  He argues the "disruptor in chief" is Kim Jong-un but his goal is not peace but instead survival and power.  I would argue the way he believes he will survive and maintain power is to dominate the peninsula thus he does not seek a peace with South Korea - he seeks unification on his terms and his terms only which means there will no longer be a South Korea.  

 

12. How Do Unification Politics Thwart Ending the Korean War?

The National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · July 8,

In my opinion there is only one major impediment to unification, it is the existence of the Kim Family regime with Kim Jong-un in power.  For Kim it is a zero sum relationship - the north dominates the South.  

Darcie Draudt points out some key challenges with a negotiated peaceful unification to include both sides claiming sovereignty over the entire peninsula. She also assesses the time for German style unification has passed and argues there must be changes in thinking as well as substantial and sustained political will if peaceful unification is to ever happen.

 

13. In Seoul, Biegun says U.S. supports inter-Korean efforts: Deputy secretary of state makes clear he doesn't obey North or Bolton

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

You have to love this sub headline but it is an apparently accurate description of Mr. Biegun's statement: "I also want to be very clear on one point," said Biegun. "I do not take my direction from Vice Minister Choe Son-hui and nor, for that matter, do I take it from Ambassador John Bolton."

14. U.S. "strongly supports" S. Korea-DPRK cooperation: U.S. nuke envoy

xinhuanet.com

A Chinese report on the DEPSECSTATE's visit to Seoul that is simply a rehash of official statements and reports.  But China really wants to emphasize the north-South cooperation because to China (and north Korea) that implies sanctions relief.  Note sanctions relief seems to be carefully omitted in all reports from both the US and South Korean side.

 

15. U.S. sees importance of North Korea talks despite tension, South says

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin, Josh Smith2 Min Read · July 9, 2020

Again, no mention of sanctions relief by the US and South Korea though it acknowledges that is what north Korea wants and is apparently frustrated there is no sign of possible relief. (nor should there be any sanctions relief until substantive agreements are negotiated and concrete denuclearization actions take place).

 

16. Esper again says N. Korea and Iran are 'rogue states'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 9, 2020

He is reiterating what our National Security and National Defense Strategies say.  The US faces competition and conflict with two revisionist powers (China and Russia) and two rogue powers (who also describe themselves as revolutionary - Iran and north Korea) as well as the continued threat from violent extremist organizations.

 

17. Source: "Nuclear facility" in Pyongyang is just a school

dailynk.com · July 9, 2020

Hmm...This is where you question Daily NK "sources" and wonder about the agenda of Daily NK and who might be exerting influence over it.

 

18. N. Korea increases number of guard posts in Hyesan

dailynk.com · July 9, 2020

The regime is really taking advantage of the coronavirus crisis to be able to crack down on the necessary economic activity and smuggling by the Korea people as well as escape attempts.  This severe border closure is going to have long term implications.  The regime will have greater control while the people's resilience is being eroded.

 

19.  N. Korean military orders soldiers to "breed more rabbits"

dailynk.com · July 9, 2020

Sounds like a chant they would make us say at SERE school - "work harder, work faster, work more "quicklier" - and add to it "breed more rabbits."  One of the things I recall from SERE school three decades ago is that rabbits are not a sufficient source of calories versus the amount of energy it takes to try to trap/catch/kill/prepare a rabbit. Of course a "rabbit breeding craze" might make it more efficient since you do not have to capture the rabbits in the wild.

 

20. S. Korea's virus infections slightly decline, but spread continues beyond capital

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 9, 2020

South Korea is able to manage this through screening upon entry into the country and then effective testing with contact tracing, quarantine, and treatment.  We could learn a thing or two. Note the reason for the numbers - foreign travel coming into the country and cluster outbreaks such as noted with large gatherings such as aat churches.  It should be a warning for all of us.

 

21. S. Korea to spend big on development of COVID-19 vaccine, drug

en.yna.co.kr · by 이준승 · July 9, 2020

I hope this helps to achieve a breakthrough.

 

------------------

"I've spent the last 25 years studying genocide. I've learned that the belief that human society is perfectible through the zealous application of ideology tends not to end well."

- Alex Bellamy

 

"When proven wrong, the wise man will correct himself and the ignorant will keep arguing."

- Ali ibn Abi Talib

 

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, conn a ship, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve an equation, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." 

- Robert Heinlein

Organized Crime and Corona Virus in Mexico

Small Wars Journal – El Centro Fellows Gary J. Hale and Nathan P. Jones just published a Policy Brief on Organized Crime and COVID-19 at the Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker institute for Public Policy.  The brief “Organized Crime and the Coronavirus in Mexico” looks at COVID-19 related disruption of illicit supply change and the potential for an expansion of predatory activities by criminal cartels.   A brief literature review, discussion of violence potentials, and the impact on drug markets, and the impact on the organized crime landscape are also discussed.

Source: Nathan P. Jones and Gary J. Hale, “Organized Crime and the Coronavirus in Mexico,” Policy Brief 07.08.20. Houston: Rice University, Baker Institute for Public Policy. 8 July 2020, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/f22f8c30/bi-brief-070820-usmx-organizedcrime.pdf.

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper Message to the Force on Accomplishments in Implementation of the National Defense Strategy

2. U.S.-China Tensions Could Lead To Attack on USD Global Reserve Currency Status

3. Learning lessons from World War II and the Cold War

4. FBI chief slams Chinese cyberattacks on U.S., calls it 'one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history'

5. U.S. commander confident Iraq will ask American forces to stay as it confronts militias

6. The Upside of a New Cold War with China

7. Trump administration formally withdraws US from WHO

8. USAGM CEO Michael Pack names James M. Miles, former SC Secretary of State, Acting CEO of Open Technology Fund

9.  Grassley: Senate would 'probably' override Trump veto of defense bill amid base renaming fight

10. Foreign competition: the WTO seeks a new leader

11. FBI: China attacking US in massive campaign including cyber, propaganda, economic espionage and more

12. EXCLUSIVE: Southcom commander describes Chinese and Russian threats in the Americas

13. A Bird? A Plane? No, It's a Google Balloon Beaming the Internet

14. Military's Top Appeals Court to Consider Whether Retirees Can Be Court-Martialed

15. As nine alumni highlight racism at West Point, the academy's IG starts review of 'all matters involving race'

16. US Approves $2b Osprey Aircraft Sale to Indonesia

17. Right-Wing Media Outlets Duped by a Middle East Propaganda Campaign

18. Warfighters in Ivory Towers: Does the US Army Need Officers with Doctoral Degrees?

19. 'The military's #MeToo': In wake of Vanessa Guillén death, servicewomen bear deep scars

20. Opinion | College Courses Online Are Disappointing. Here's How to Fix Them.

21. Raising the age of military enlistment

22. Two Female Airmen Reclassify after Attempting to Complete Special Ops Training

 

1. Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper Message to the Force on Accomplishments in Implementation of the National Defense Strategy

defense.gov July 7, 2020

As I have written before, I have never seen US senior leaders talk about the National Security and Defense Strategies.  I certainly do not recall any SECDEF providing a SITREP on the implementation of the strategy.

There is video here.

 

2. U.S.-China Tensions Could Lead To Attack On USD Global Reserve Currency Status

seekingalpha.com · by Zoltan Ban · July 7, 2020

We must be very concerned with this and the Administration must make every effort to defend against these attacks.

Note the conclusion.  The author believes that there will be no change in the confrontation with China if Vice President Biden is elected.

 

3. Learning lessons from World War II and the Cold War

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

Yes we should. There is a lot to learn despite the cries that we have not entered a Cold War 2.0.  This sums up the big difference between the Cold War and today in America: "America's grand strategy in the Cold War, embraced by centrist Democrats and centrist Republicans alike, aimed at frustrating Soviet empire-building in the hope, if not conviction, that Communism's internal contradictions would cause it to collapse sooner or later."  Who are the centrists today?  They certainly are not in charge.  Can we unify against external threats when we are so focused on perceived internal threats? 

 

4. FBI chief slams Chinese cyberattacks on U.S., calls it 'one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history'

CNBC · by Amanda Macias · July 8, 2020

And it is only going to get worse.

 

5. U.S. commander confident Iraq will ask American forces to stay as it confronts militias

The Washington Post· by Missy Ryan · July 7, 2020

 

6. The Upside of a New Cold War With China

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · July 7, 2020

I think only Hal Brands can find an upside in this.  He provides us with positive and negative lessons from the Cold War.  I find this quote (among many) to be a particularly instructive reminder: "Precisely because the Cold War was a fierce ideological contest over what type of system could best meet the aspirations of humanity, it created an imperative for America to live up to the image it portrayed to the world."  Today is an ideological war like it was in the past.  My take on this is in this graphic.

 

7. Trump administration formally withdraws US from WHO

The Hill · by Brett Samuels · July 7, 2020

I think we are making a mistake.  International organizations are a key battleground in the ideological competition with China.  We should not be ceding the high ground.

 

8. USAGM CEO Michael Pack names James M. Miles, former SC Secretary of State, Acting CEO of Open Technology Fund

usagm.gov July 7, 2020

At 78 years old I wonder about his qualifications. Where is his technical, Internet, and communications expertise?  What does he know about internet and communications penetration of authoritarian countries?  I am sure he will surround himself with a team of experts in all these areas but I cannot imagine we cannot find someone with the requisite expertise for this position.  I guess his business acumen and non-profit management expertise trumps relevant experience with the mission. I just hope he listens to his experts.

 

9. Grassley: Senate would 'probably' override Trump veto of defense bill amid base renaming fight

The Hill · by Jordain Carney · July 7, 2020

Has a defense bill ever been vetoed and then had the veto overridden by Congress?

 

10. Foreign competition: the WTO seeks a new leader

espresso.economist.com · July 7, 2020

 

11. FBI: China attacking US in massive campaign including cyber, propaganda, economic espionage and more

americanmilitarynews.com · by Laura Widener · July 7, 2020

Cyber. Propaganda, and economic espionage (and more!)

 

12. EXCLUSIVE: Southcom commander describes Chinese and Russian threats in the Americas

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · July 6, 2020

This is a global competition that is taking place in most all theaters.  We have to be careful about placing a geographic main effort in one theater when competitors are operating in multiple theaters. We need to provide the right resources in support of the correct policies and strategies for the different regions.

 

13. A Bird? A Plane? No, It's a Google Balloon Beaming the Internet

The New York Times · by Abdi Latif Dahir · July 7, 2020

Loon balloon.  I spoke with some Google researchers about similar capabilities about 10 years ago for Korea. I wish we could do this for north Korea but of course this would be viewed as a direct threat to the regime and they would probably retaliate kinetically. 

 

14. Military's Top Appeals Court to Consider Whether Retirees Can Be Court-Martialed

military.com · by Gina Harkins · July 7, 2020

Should we be worried? :-)

 

15. As nine alumni highlight racism at West Point, the academy's IG starts review of 'all matters involving race'

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · July 7, 2020

Someone is paying attention.

 

16.  US Approves $2b Osprey Aircraft Sale to Indonesia

jakartaglobe.id · July 08, 2020

This could be a very important capability for Indonesia though 8 will hardly be game changing.

 

17. Right-Wing Media Outlets Duped by a Middle East Propaganda Campaign

The Daily Beast · by Adam Rawnsley · July 6, 2020

A fascinating influence campaign exposed. Also fascinating are the reactions to the exposure.  That is assuming this report is accurate.

 

18. Warfighters in Ivory Towers: Does the US Army Need Officers with Doctoral Degrees?

mwi.usma.edu · by Paul Lushenko · July 8, 2020

Does it need them?  Probably not.  But does it benefit from having the right officers obtain that education? Yes I believe so.  I support higher education for our officers and NCOs as well (note the NDU/CISA/SWCS graduate program at Bragg for NCOs, warrant officers, and officers as one example).

But another way to ask the question is whether these programs will change the anti-intellectual culture within the military?  I think not.  If anything those few excellent officers in these programs will be simply held up as examples to say the Army supports education.  Where the anti-intellectual culture needs to change is with the rank and file military and at PME institutions and most importantly with the individual officer who should see the value in being a life-long learner striving to develop a superior intellect without concern for sheepskin.  And leaders at all levels should be encouraging lifelong learning (and leading by example in their intellectual pursuits).

 

19.  'The military's #MeToo': In wake of Vanessa Guillén death, servicewomen bear deep scars

The Washington Post· by Alex Horton· July 7, 2020

This is a horrific story made worse by what was not done and how sexual harassment is (and is not) handled that might have prevented this tragedy.  Like racism, this has to change.

 

20.  Opinion | College Courses Online Are Disappointing. Here's How to Fix Them.

The New York Times · by Lisa Feldman Barrett · July 8, 2020

There are good and bad.  I have been observing my daughter's experience and it was a tough transition in the middle of the semester.  But she is taking summer courses and they are improving.   I think there are good ideas below and I hope schools and professors consider them.  I also think that the vast majority of professors were not prepared to teach this way so they are going through their own learning process.  It will get better.  It has to.

 

21. Raising the age of military enlistment

militarytimes.com · by Peter Polack and Jack McCain · July 7, 2020

Some food for thought. This is a real challenge: "The two greatest threats to the free world will come from the East and they must not face young, inexperienced and weak minded opposition."  

 

22. Two Female Airmen Reclassify after Attempting to Complete Special Ops Training

military.com · by Oriana Pawlyk · July 7, 2020

 

----------

 

"The means of defence against foreign danger have been always the instruments of tyranny at home. Among the Romans it was a standing maxim to excite a war, whenever a revolt was apprehended. Throughout all Europe, the armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people."

- James Madison, Notes of Debates in the Federal Convention of 1787 Reported by James Madison

"You are young, my son, and, as the years go by, time will change and even reverse many of your present opinions.  Refrain therefore awhile from setting yourself up as a judge of the highest matters."  

- Plato

 

"In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to possess hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats." 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korean government prioritizes N. Korea over U.S.

2. Biegun visits S. Korea without his right arm

3. A midsummer night's dream (Korea and the Moon Administration)

4. Biegun thanks South Korea for supporting trip to Seoul amid COVID-19

5. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

6. Pyongyang tells Seoul to give up on mediating role

7. Are Bolton's words true? (Korea in Bolton's book)

8. US troops spark anger in South Korea

9. North Korea talks tough as U.S. negotiator lands in Seoul

10. Biegun meets senior Seoul officials over stalled nuke diplomacy

11. Biegun says U.S. 'strongly' supports inter-Korean cooperation

12. U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

13. Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

14. Reports: China, North Korea trade declining as food, fuel prices rise

15. Seven US troops test positive for coronavirus after arriving in South Korea

16. North Korea's Contradictions Will Be Its Demise

17. Kim Pyong-il: Former Ambassador or Future Supreme Leader of North Korea?

18. Men Un Black: Kim Jong Un is flanked by flunkeys

19. North Korean Elites' Self-Interest Will Keep Kim Family in Power

 

1.  S. Korean government prioritizes N. Korea over U.S.

donga.com July 8, 2020

The title says it all.  Unfortunately if South Korea goes down this path neither the ROK nor the US will be successful versus north Korea.  And of course a major priority of the regime is to split the ROK/US Alliance.

For the ROK and the US to be successful their actions must be built on a strong alliance.

 

2. Biegun visits S. Korea without his right arm

donga.com · July 8, 2020

I think the press and the pundits may be reading too much into this.  But of course everyone is reading the tea leaves looking for scrap of information that will be. a sign of what the US intends to do.  I would say this is probably much ado about nothing.  There is probably some innocuous explanation and I do not think it means anything negative in terms of the ROK/US alliance or policy and strategy versus north Korea.

 

3. A midsummer night's dream (Korea and the Moon Administration)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Nam Jeong-ho

Mr. Nam says Moon is betting everything on another Trump-Kim summit and he rightly calls it wishful thinking while ignoring reality.  The reality is the nature of the Kim family regime and the Moon administration's assumption about the regime have been wrong.  Never say never, but I think I have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery than another summit.

4. Biegun thanks South Korea for supporting trip to Seoul amid COVID-19

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 8, 2020

Mr. Biegun and his team are grateful they did not have to quarantine for 14 days.  Hopefully traveling by US military air mitigated the risk for our team and for Korea.

 

5. N.K. leader visits mausoleum to mark late grandfather's death anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 8, 2020

Interestingly on the television footage we saw we did not observe any masks among the people  (just like the photo below). Kim Jong-un must not be as worried about the coronavirus or he just did not want to appear weak.  It is amazing to think that 26 years ago we were potentially on the brink of striking the north's nuclear program, Carter had just visited Pyongyang, we were in the midst of negotiating the Agreed Framework (approved in October) and Kim Il-sung passed away on July 8th.

It will be interesting if we read about a South Korean government message to the north on the anniversary of his death.

 

6. Pyongyang tells Seoul to give up on mediating role

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok

I am at a loss as to why the Moon administration is not understanding the regime's message.

And who thinks Mr Biegun is bringing a game-changing proposal to Seoul this week?  The only game-changing proposal can come from the north- if Kim agree to allow substantive working level negotiations to work toward denuclearization of the north.

 

7. Are Bolton's words true? (Korea in Bolton's book)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Michael Green

For all Korea watchers I hope you have read Chapter 11 of Bolton's book.  It is a fascinating read.  Bolton certainly did not have anything good to say about Mr. Biegun.

But Mike Green provides the grain of salt necessary for reading Bolton's book.

8. US Troops Spark Anger in South Korea

Daily Mail · by Ryan Fahey · July 7, 2020

As one of my many great Command Sergeants Major used to say: "One awe sh*t wipes out a thousand attaboys."  We did not need this.  And I think we wiped out a few thousand attaboys.

 

9. North Korea talks tough as U.S. negotiator lands in Seoul

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Yes as Duyeon Kim mentions, the north is desperate to fix its economic problems. She is exactly right here: "The best way for the regime to divert attention from Kim's performance at home is to deflect his constituents' gaze outward." But we must remember those economic problems are caused by Kim Jong-un's policy decisions.  He chooses to put nuclear weapons and ICBMs ahead of the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.  He must be held accountable and one of the ways to do that is to inform the Korean people living in the north.

 

10. Biegun meets senior Seoul officials over stalled nuke diplomacy

koreaherald.com · July 8, 2020

We are prepared to engage.  The north is not.  Or I should say it will only engage if it receives the concessions it demands (sanctions relief).  If we ever give into the north's demands we will confirm to Kim Jong-un that his blackmail diplomacy works and we will simply see more demands.

 

11. Biegun says U.S. 'strongly' supports inter-Korean cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 8, 2020

Yes we do as long as engagement does not violate the sanctions regime and US law.

 

12. U.S. Remains Ready to Resume Nuclear Talks With North Korea, Envoy Says

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin · July 8, 2020

Pyongyang has no interest in talks unless it is guaranteed to have immediate sanctions relief.

Just as an aside can you imagine if there was a meeting and one side infected the other with the coronavirus?  There would surely be some fallout as a result (no pun intended).

 

13. Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

COMMENTARY  · by Duyeon Kim · July 7, 2020

The frog is going to boil from now and until November.  And we need to pay attention to the internal domestic pressures on Kim Jong-un.

And I am always leery when the propaganda against the South ceases.  But we have seen the reports that internal lectures continue the hostile attitude toward the South.

 

14. Reports: China, North Korea trade declining as food, fuel prices rise

upi.com · Elisabeth Shim · July 7, 2020

In north Korea things will always get worse and never seem to get better.

 

15. Seven US troops test positive for coronavirus after arriving in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · July 8, 2020

I do worry about the amount of troops and staff augmentation and contractors who will deploy for the exercises.  Will they be deploying 14 days early for quarantine?  I would hate to think of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command suffering a massive outbreak due to the exercise.  Yet we have to train or readiness will decline.  This is a difficult commander's problem.

 

16. North Korea's Contradictions Will Be Its Demise

The National Interest · by Jeenho Hahm · July 7, 2020

Will the "anachronism" soon expire?  We cannot make such predictions.  But we must observe for indicators and be prepared for all contingencies.

 

17.  Kim Pyong-il: Former Ambassador or Future Supreme Leader of North Korea?

The National Interest · by Harry J. Kazianis, John Grover, and Adriana Nazarko · July 7, 2020

Interesting background on Kim Pyong-il.  He does not get much press (though of course as noted there was speculation about him possibly being a successor but I think that has been debunked or as the article notes he would be an unlikely successor).

 

18. Men Un Black: Kim Jong Un is flanked by flunkeys

Daily Mail · by Alice Cachia For Mailonline · July 8, 2020

Flunkeys is usually a term used by the north to describe the South.  And again, note there were no masks.

 

19. North Korean Elites' Self-Interest Will Keep Kim Family in Power

The National Interest · by Welton Chang · July 7, 2020

This is why we have not yet seen internal resistance among the elite.  Despite the hardships in north Korea the elite are still better off than they would be without Kim Jong-un in power.  The question is if or when their views will shift?  They have contributed to the incredible resilience of the regime.

 

---------

 

"The means of defence against foreign danger have been always the instruments of tyranny at home. Among the Romans it was a standing maxim to excite a war, whenever a revolt was apprehended. Throughout all Europe, the armies kept up under the pretext of defending, have enslaved the people."

- James Madison, Notes of Debates in the Federal Convention of 1787 Reported by James Madison

"You are young, my son, and, as the years go by, time will change and even reverse many of your present opinions.  Refrain therefore awhile from setting yourself up as a judge of the highest matters."  

- Plato

 

"In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to possess hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats." 

- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Challenging China's "Wolf Warrior" Diplomats by Dean Cheng

2. US approves $7.5 billion in foreign weapons sales in one day

3. The Trump administration is considering banning TikTok in the US

4. Build a national counter-drone network

5. Highly infectious Coronavirus strain takes over

6. Terrorist groups must not be allowed to exploit 'fragilities' caused by global health pandemic

7. The tip of the American military spear is being blunted

8. Coronavirus roundup: More universities announce plans for largely online fall terms

9. The US pioneered digital contact tracing. Why aren't we using it to fight COVID-19?

10. China detains Xu Zhangrun, leading critic of President Xi Jinping

11. Opinion | Facebook can't be reformed

12. Why women absolutely belong in the US military's special operations forces

13. The two-man OSS mission through the Tibetan mountains to contact the Dalai Lama

14. Pentagon draft policy would ban Confederate flag displays

15. Black US Army cadets say they were called the N-word and 'shunned' for reporting discrimination at West Point

 

1. Challenging China's "Wolf Warrior" Diplomats by Dean Cheng

heritage.org · by Dean Cheng

This report in PDF can be downloaded here https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2020-07/BG3504.pdf

This is an important paper. Dean Cheng provides an excellent survey of Chinese history, diplomacy, and culture leading to the rise of the "warrior diplomats." He offers three recommendations. (and notes the importance of better coordinating US messaging and public diplomacy to include effective use of the USAGM and VOA, RFA, etc).

2. US approves $7.5 billion in foreign weapons sales in one day

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · July 6, 2020

Maybe someone got ahold of the autopen and went to work!

3. The Trump administration is considering banning TikTok in the US

NME · July 7, 2020

I hate to see a ban on anything. I would like the American public to just delete the app on their own because they were informed and and understand the threat and danger it poses.

This is not a long term solution because the Chinese will find another way to extract data from the American people.  We need education on good cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense. I know it is a naive thought but if a populace is better informed of the threat and is educated and trained to defend themselves our adversaries will have a more difficult time attacking us. Or we can just ban them as they are introduced and play whac-a-mole.

4. Build a national counter-drone network

defenseone.com · by Zak Kallenborn 

Although Clausewitz tells us defense is the stronger form of war, I think it does not apply in missile defense, cyber defense, and drone defense. Defense is harder with the capabilities. But we must try to build good defenses against drones and other capabilities. But we must also accept there is no perfect defense.

Some food for thought here.

5. Highly infectious Coronavirus strain takes over

english.chosun.com · July 7, 2020

I am getting more worried every day. I think I will follow in the footsteps of Miyamoto Mushashi or any Buddhist Monk and go to the mountains and find a cave to live and to write and live out the rest of my days as long as it has a good wifi connection).

6. Terrorist groups must not be allowed to exploit 'fragilities' caused by global health pandemic

news.un.org · July 6, 2020

But these groups are learning organizations and seek weaknesses to exploit. And the pandemic is exposing weaknesses.

7. The tip of the American military spear is being blunted

Foreign Policy · by Tanner Greer · July 6, 2020

A critique of US Marine Corps reforms.

8. Coronavirus roundup: More universities announce plans for largely online fall terms

Inside Higher Ed · July 7, 2020

I hope they will enough in residence offerings so our international students do not get caught up in the idiotic immigration proposals being made to make them return to their home countries or risk being deported if their university goes to all online classes. We really know how to cut off our nose to spite our face.

9. The US pioneered digital contact tracing. Why aren't we using it to fight COVID-19?

defenseone.com · by Bhaskar Chakravorti

Because Americans no longer trust science. This is the key action in continuing and stopping the spread of the virus. We should remember that with rights comes responsibility. And we all have a responsibility to safeguard our nation and our fellow citizens.

10. China detains Xu Zhangrun, leading critic of President Xi Jinping

The Washington Post · by Gerry Shih · July 6, 2020

Should be no surprise.

11. Opinion | Facebook can't be reformed

The New York Times · by Charlie Warzel · July 1, 2020

12. Why women absolutely belong in the US military's special operations forces

Business Insider · by Charlie

This should stir up some discussion. But it is a done deal. It is happening and will continue to happen (albeit slowly perhaps). So get on with it.

13. The two-man OSS mission through the Tibetan mountains to contact the Dalai Lama

coffeeordie.com · by Matt Fratus · July 6, 2020

Some SOF/OSS history. This is a pretty cool piece of trivia. "His Holiness the Dalai Lama visited Washington, D.C., in 2016 and carried his gold pocket Patek Philippe watch (reference 658) gifted to him by OSS officers in 1942, a kind gesture sent from President Franklin Roosevelt." We do this very poorly today. Yes we give gifts to our counterparts and they are often cherished in this way. But our military personnel do it out of their own pockets (so they do not give Patek Philippe watches) because "official representation" funding is so limited (both in amounts to be spent and who can provide such gifts). The fact is every SF ODA, PSYOP Team, and Civil Affairs Team and other military units gives gifts to their counterparts. And the sad irony is no matter how poor and poverty stricken a country might be, the host nation counterparts give us more valuable gifts in return.

14. Pentagon draft policy would ban Confederate flag displays

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · July 6, 2020

Are we headed for another civil-military dust-up? There should not even be a debate over this.

15. Black US Army cadets say they were called the N-word and 'shunned' for reporting discrimination at West Point

Business Insider · by David Choi

The 40 page policy proposal referenced in this article can be accessed at this link. It is a very remarkable letter from recent West Point graduates with detailed information and proposals. It is difficult to dispute first person accounts of experiences from these nine serving officers who had the guts to put their name on this letter and make very thoughtful, professional, and well researched policy recommendations.  

https://www.slideshare.net/TimothyBerry8/an-anti-racist-west-point

 

-----------

"An optimist is a person who sees a green light everywhere, while a pessimist sees only the red stoplight... the truly wise person is colorblind."

- Albert Schweitzer 

 

To be a philosopher is not merely to have subtle thoughts, nor even to found a school, but so to love wisdom as to live according to its dictates, "a life of simplicity, independence, magnanimity and trust."

- Henry David Thoreau

"A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows the public opinion."

- Grantland Rice

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. N.K. again rejects possibility of talks with U.S. as Biegun set to arrive in Seoul

2. Seoul doubles down on North Korea gambit with National Security reshuffle

3. Biegun expected to focus on reviving talks with North

4. S. Korea poised to push through inter-Korean cooperation - regardless of US position

5. N. Korean propaganda lectures focus on anti-South Korean rhetoric

6. N. Korea orders hospitals to manufacture their own medicines

7. Former POWs win damage suit against N. Korea and its leader

8. New virus infections below 50 for 2nd day, imported cases on higher plateau

9. N. Korea's paper says border control tightened to fight virus

10. North Korea defectors face wrath of both Seoul and Pyongyang

11. Balloon man defector angers both Koreas

12. North Korea's Lazarus group diversifies into card skimming

13. Opinion: Otto Warmbier won't be forgotten in our hearts

14. Thoughts on North Korean issue

15. Pompeo welcomes Britain's sanctions on N. Korea, others

16. Russian Amb. Kulik calls for economic engagement with N.K. toward peace, trust

17. Why the chances for future Korean peace are low

18. The Korean War as Allegory

19. Perpetual Struggle: Why the Korean War did not end for North Korea

1. N.K. again rejects possibility of talks with U.S. as Biegun set to arrive in Seoul

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 7, 2020

Kwon Jong-gun says, What part of "no" don't you understand. But note he is a MOFA official, Director General in charge of US affairs so like Kim Yo-jong, he can be overruled by Kim Jong-un if it suits him and his strategy and tactics.

2. Seoul doubles down on North Korea gambit with National Security reshuffle

thediplomat.com · by Tae-jun Kang · July 6, 2020

I had hoped the Moon administration would have reassessed its assumptions, policies, and strategy but this is a clear indication that Moon is all in on his "peace strategy." Remember this new security really is responsible for North Korea no collapsing after the great famine when the transferred hundreds of millions of dollars to the north during the Sunshine and peace and Prosperity Policy period (1997-2007) and they are also responsible for North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006 which was funded with the help of the aid from the South. They never heard The Who play the song, "Won't get fooled again..."

A damning comment in the analysis below about how Korean presidents use the heads of their National Intelligence Service.

3. Biegun expected to focus on reviving talks with North

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · July 7, 2020

I know we are committed to working level negotiations and have been since June of 2018 in Singapore and I am sure Mr. Biegun will reiterate that. But it is Kim Jong-un who has prevented them. But I seriously doubt either the US or north Korea will push for a summit. It is only president Moon who is doing so.

4. S. Korea poised to push through inter-Korean cooperation - regardless of US position

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · July 6, 2020

This is the near ambush that Mr. Biegun is running into in Seoul (please remember the rules of an ambush and assault through it - and I hope Minister Kang and Lee Do-hoon can provide covering fire)). This is a hostile environment with the new security team. It does not bode well for the alliance with these kinds of statements. Note the comments on the strategy working group. That has become a lightning rod for blame for the failure of intra-Korean relations when in fact the US is not blocking engagement by the South (though sanctions and the law might) and the single cause for failure is Kim Jong-un and his failure to engage with the South.  He is not aligned with the South's peace strategy. He only wants to con the South out of more money but fortunately sanctions do prevent doing so.

5. N. Korean propaganda lectures focus on anti-South Korean rhetoric

dailynk.com · July 7, 2020

The regime's true colors. It needs a hostile relationship with the South and the US to sustain its legitimacy. It is interesting to consider the propaganda because it is telling the people the exact opposite of South Korea's position and making it seem like it is the regime that wants peace and reconciliation when in fact it has no such intention. I really wish the Moon administration would pay attention to the north's actions and understand its strategy and objectives. The will never align with the South's. Note also the effort to prevent information from getting out of the North.

6. N. Korea orders hospitals to manufacture their own medicines

dailynk.com · July 7, 2020

The message is the party cannot provide. You are on your own.

7. Former POWs win damage suit against N. Korea and its leader

en.yna.co.kr · by 심선아 · July 7, 2020

There are still so many unaccounted for South Korea, US, and allied personnel. I fear they are tilting at windmills in terms of actually receiving compensation. But it is good to keep this issue alive so people can understand the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime going all the way back to its establishment.

8. New virus infections below 50 for 2nd day, imported cases on higher plateau

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · July 7, 2020

Some slightly good news. And the fact that they are catching imported cases must be an indication of effective screening at ports of entry.

9. N. Korea's paper says border control tightened to fight virus

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 7, 2020

The tighter the border the more difficult for the Korean people in the North to conduct economic activity and the suffering will continue to increase. I think the regime may be trying to take full advantage of the virus to implement great control over the population.

10. North Korea defectors face wrath of both Seoul and Pyongyang

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · July 6, 2020

These Korean patriots are caught between a rock and a hard place. This should not be happening. They should be protected, and their work should be supported. I expect the North to be hostile toward them but the South Korean government and people should not be hostile to their fellow citizens just because they happened to have lived in the North, escaped, and are not trying to help their fellow Koreans in the North.

11. Balloon man defector angers both Koreas

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · July 6, 2020

Mr. Park has an interesting thesis on why the Koreans in the South are hostile to his important work: They have a "reverse-Stockholm syndrome." I do not know if it is "reverse" because Koreans in the South are "hostage" under the threat of north Korean action.

And note his denials of sending the alleged photos of Kim Jong-un's wife. I have it on good authority that such leaflets were not made in the South and were not sent from the South I think that is Russian disinformation and active measures to support the regime (the reports of the leaflets came from Russia originally and of course no one has shown us the actual leaflets. That should be an indicator.

12. North Korea's Lazarus group diversifies into card skimming

darkreading.com

More on the activities of the north's "all-purpose sword."

13. Opinion: Otto Warmbier won't be forgotten in our hearts

cincinnati.com · by Jung Min Noh and Dunkin Han

A very nice essay from two of my favourite (among many) journalists from Radio Free Asia (note their bios below). Remember the special report they describe in this essay is for broadcast into North Korea. The Korean people in the North must be informed about human rights and about the wrongs the regime is committing. This is an important mission. Humans rights is a moral imperative and a national security issue. The focus on human rights also helps to prepare the Korean people in the north for unification.

14. Thoughts on North Korean issue

The Korea Times · by Chang Se-moon · July 5, 2020

This essay has two parts. One is a focus on Otto Warmbier and human rights. The second is the author's advice for restarting negotiations "based on clearly stated step-by-step procedures of country-specific obligations." But he clearly has a strong information and influence component to his proposal.

15. Pompeo welcomes Britain's sanctions on N. Korea, others

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · July 7, 2020

Welcome supporting fires from the UK.

16. Russian Amb. Kulik calls for economic engagement with N.K. toward peace, trust

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · July 7, 2020

Of course Russia wants sanctions relief for the north and for the South and the US to provide concessions. And yes, I believe the Ambassador when he says, "that his country has "sincerely and consistently" fulfilled all of its obligations" when it comes to sanctions and slave labor from North Korea. (note my sarcasm)

17. Why the chances for future Korean peace are low

The National Interest · by Malcolm Davis · July 6, 2020

It is because Kim Jong-un won't "give peace a chance." Peace is a threat to his survival as counterintuitive as that may seem. He needs the threat to maintain the justification for the sacrifices of the Korean people living in the North.

18. The Korean War as Allegory

The National Interest · by Spencer D. Bakich · July 6, 2020

We should remember that at the heart of the situation the war between the North and South is now an Ideological War - the Korean people on the peninsula must make a choice between:
    * Shared ROK/US Values :Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights
    * Kim family regime (KFR) "values:" Juche/Kimilsungism, Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power

The question is how do you fight and win this ideological war?

19. Perpetual Struggle: Why the Korean War did not end for North Korea

The National Interest · by Eric Ballbach · July 7, 2020

Simply put, North Korean "politics" is zero sum with the South. The only way the North desires to have "peace" is through the elimination of the ROK to allow the North to rule the entire Korean peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

 

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"An optimist is a person who sees a green light everywhere, while a pessimist sees only the red stoplight... the truly wise person is colorblind."

- Albert Schweitzer 

 

To be a philosopher is not merely to have subtle thoughts, nor even to found a school, but so to love wisdom as to live according to its dictates, "a life of simplicity, independence, magnanimity and trust."

- Henry David Thoreau

"A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows the public opinion."

- Grantland Rice

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

2. Thousands of US troops will shift to Asia-Pacific to guard against China

3. The hidden aftershocks of John Bolton's memoir as foreign government officials remain fixated

4. Fake accounts are constantly manipulating what you see on social media. Here's how

5. Duterte's worrisome anti-terrorism act

6.  US military presence in Poland - Analysis

7. Operation Bashi Channel: the next flashpoint in the China-US military rivalry

8. 239 Experts with one big claim: the Coronavirus is airborne

9. The fullest look yet at the racial inequity of Coronavirus

10. TikTok may be 'data collection service disguised as social media', Liberal senator says

11. Hong Kong, changed overnight, navigates its new reality

12. China's superpower dreams are running out of money

13. Bucking China pressure, Taiwan, Somaliland establish ties

14. A Wicked Cultural Problem: Options for combating new Tribalism in 2035

15. White House to interview defense officials in perceived loyalty test

16. Air Force says 26 states have submitted bids to host U.S. Space Command

17. Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic flaw in contemporary U.S. Army thinking

18. White House tentatively agrees to leave some troops in Afghanistan past U.S. election

19. Troops, long-term residents exempt from EU coronavirus travel ban on American

20. War Books: How to win a land war in Asia

 

1. Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt

The Economist · July 4, 2020

Yes this is the new reality, the new normal. We need to adopt and practice fundamental public health procedures as a matter of routine to protect each other.

I found this comment on my Facebook page from a friend from overseas.

1. My kids are asking how come our neighbors are having the 4th of July party altogether with the other neighbors while we try to keep social distance with them as they just came back from a vacation to Florida.

2.  Foreign diplomatic corps colleagues in major American cities like Washington DC and New York are trying to relocate themselves to different countries amid Covid19. They say other places would be safer for sometime than DC/NY, and it's surprising to see what cities and countries are on the list as alternatives.

Quo Vadis America?

My response to him:

I am saddened to read your comments, but I understand your feelings and fears. It is not what you have written that makes me sad. It is the reason why you had to write it that is so troubling. We cannot get our own house in order.

2. Thousands of US troops will shift to Asia-Pacific to guard against China

asia.nikkei.com

Where will they go? What country is going to pay the costs to host them? (Said with tongue in cheek sarcasm). I think what will really happen is they will return to CONUS and the. Simply be apportioned to support war plans and training in the Pacific. I do not think we have the infrastructure in Asia-Pacific to base more forces. Perhaps temporary rotations such as in Australia (such as the Marines) but I doubt they can be permanently based anywhere. (Maybe Alaska but that would be about it, Where in Guam or Japan? Hawaii perhaps but I will bet there is not a lot of excess space there)

Some might consider "spreading them out" through the theater. Spreading them out? What kind of units are they? What kind of capabilities will they have? What does 9500 troops spread out of Asia do for us? This is simply crazy. Everyone just looks at numbers. What kind of effects will this achieve? Just to say we have more troops in Asia? We know there is insufficient infrastructure for Army units throughout Asia. And then why will we bring home troops from Korea (or maybe Japan as well if they are "delinquent" on their payments? I know they are not and Korea certainly pays for its defense as a percentage of its GDP more than Germany and most all NATO allies, if not all).

The bottom line is what specific units with what specific capabilities will be withdrawn from Germany and shifted to Asia? My guess is the majority of the forces will be CONUS based and perhaps some in Hawaii and Guam and will simply be apportioned to support war plans in the Pacific and theater engagement activities.

But we should always remember that brilliant movie on strategy, the Princess Bride and heed this advice:

Vizzini: You only think I guessed wrong! That's what's so funny! I switched glasses when your back was turned! Ha ha, you fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less well-known is this: Never go in against a Sicilian when DEATH is on the line.

3. The hidden aftershocks of John Bolton's memoir as foreign government officials remain fixated

Axios · by Jonathan Swan

Yes, Bolton's book has faded in the US press. But it is continuing to have aftershocks among our allies.

4. Fake accounts are constantly manipulating what you see on social media. Here's how

ScienceAlert · by Jeanna Matthews, The Conversation

What is the best way to defend against fake accounts? The author provides four recommendations with the last summarized as do not become addicted to social media.

5. Duterte's worrisome anti-terrorism act

asiasentinel.com · by Asia Sentinel

Yes we should be concerned with democracy in the Philippines.

6.  US military presence in Poland – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Andrew Feickert, Kathleen J. Mclnnis, and Derek E. Mix · July 5, 2020

You can always count on the Congressional Research Service to provide some good analysis.

7. Operation Bashi Channel: the next flashpoint in the China-US military rivalry

https://www.scmp.com/ · by Lawrence Chung · July 5, 2020

8. 239 Experts with one big claim: the Coronavirus is airborne

The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · July 4, 2020

Troubling if accurate.

Of course the internet memes will seize on this and all the internet experts will debunk the scientists and say this is just a conspiracy to end the world as we know it. Watch how the internet trolls react to this.

9. The fullest look yet at the racial inequity of Coronavirus

The New York Times · by Richard A. Oppel Jr. · July 5, 2020

Please go to the link to view the charts and data.  

Public health is a national security issue. We have seen the reports of the potential long-term lung damage the virus may cause. It seems to be infecting more and more young people.  Think about what that could mean for military age manpower.

Again, I am sure the internet trolls will be out with their own statistics to debunk the notion there is systemic racism in America.  Watch for the revisionist powers to use this information (and counter-information) to create a greater divide in the US.

10. TikTok may be 'data collection service disguised as social media', Liberal senator says

The Guardian · by Paul Karp · July 6, 2020

An excellent description from an Australian senator. We should be very aware of this. But it has enormous popularity. Rather than ban it I wish we could just educate people as to the danger and let them make their own correct decision. But this is why cyber hygiene and cyber civil defense is so difficult. These social media platforms are addictive. They provide mindless entertainment for the masses thus allowing the Chinese to collect large amounts of data. Of course western and US social media companies also hoover up large amounts of data as well (which leads to the so-what argument - if everyone does it why do we single out China? - that of course misses the point).

11. Hong Kong, changed overnight, navigates its new reality

The New York Times · by Vivian Wang · July 5, 2020

The times are changing. And not for the better for the citizens of Hong Kong.

12. China's superpower dreams are running out of money

Foreign Policy · by Salvatore Babones · July 6, 2020

I hope this is the case and not wishful thinking. But I would not hold my breath or include this as a hopeful part of a strategy to deal with China.

13. Bucking China pressure, Taiwan, Somaliland establish ties

The Washington Post · by Associated Press

A rare diplomatic victory? I think this goes in the SERE school definition of "small victories." Buttaiwan needs every one of such small victories.

14. A Wicked Cultural Problem: Options for combating new Tribalism in 2035

divergentoptions.org · by Divergent Options · July 6, 2020

An interesting think piece. I thought this was going to address the problem of tribalism in American politics but it has a different thesis.

15. White House to interview defense officials in perceived loyalty test

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch, Robbie Gramer · July 3, 2020

Sigh...next we will be implementing Songbun. I hope this is inaccurate reporting.

Can you imagine being a senior official and  having to have an "office call" with these two? John Troup Hemenway, an undergraduate student at the University of Virginia, and Jordan Hayley, who graduated from Liberty University in June. And they are going to assess your loyalty to the President?

16. Air Force says 26 states have submitted bids to host U.S. Space Command

spacenews.com · by Sandra Erwin · July 5, 2020

Almost like bidding to host the Olympics.

But the concluding paragraph sums up the challenge. Congress will be intensely scrutinizing this to prevent a "moondoggle."

17. Rushing to Defeat: The Strategic flaw in contemporary U.S. Army thinking

thestrategybridge.org · July 6, 2020

This sums up the author's thesis: "While acolytes of multi-domain operations point to the Wehrmacht's early wins as evidence that short and lively campaigns work, they often fail to acknowledge that, in both world wars, this thinking ultimately led to strategic defeat." I am sure the strategists and concept developers at the Pentagon and TRADOC will take exception to this accusation.

18. White House tentatively agrees to leave some troops in Afghanistan past U.S. election

Los Angeles Times · by David S. Cloud · July 3, 2020

19. Troops, long-term residents exempt from EU coronavirus travel ban on American

Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver · July 2, 2020

Some good news I suppose.

20. War Books: How to win a land war in Asia

mwi.usma.edu · by T.S. Allen · July 6, 2020

I still think it is good advice to avoid a land war in Asia. I think that must be why we changed the name from PACOM to INDOPACOM instead of the Asia-Pacific Command. INDO and PACOM refer to the Pacific and Indian Oceans where we desire to operate rather than on the Asia land mass (I am being sarcastic here).

 

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"Human dignity and freedom are our constant necessities.  So, let us keep them with us, or let us die with dignity." 

-  Marcus Tullius Cicero

 

"This is the diviine law of life: that only virtue stands firm.  All the rest is nothing." 

- Pythagoras

 

"Good people will do what they find honorable to do, even if it requires hard work; they'll do it even if causes them injury; they'll do it even if it will bring danger.  Again, they won't do what they find base., even if it brings great wealth, pleasure, or power.  Nothing will deter them from what is honorable, and nothing will lure them into what is base."

- Seneca, Moral Letters