Small Wars Journal

10/30/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Fri, 10/30/2020 - 1:03pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. If you play videogames, China may be spying on you

2. Top officials were briefed on active threat against Pentagon leaders

3. As the West stumbles, ‘helmsman’ Xi pushes an ambitious plan for China

4. How the US and India became brothers in arms

5. Preserve America’s strategic autonomy in the Taiwan Strait

6. Philippines taking aim at China’s sea militias

7. Germany is ready to offer America a new deal

8. China's hopeless Twitter influence operations

9. US, China militaries talk "crisis communications" as they trade warnings before Nov. 3 election

10. Is China getting ready to start a war over Taiwan?

11. Behind China’s threat to support insurgency in India

12. Pics/Video: US launches ballistic missile 4,200 miles into the Pacific Ocean in new test

13. The United States doesn't want to reform the WTO. It wants to destroy it

14. After covering civil war overseas, journalist examines U.S. militia movement

15. Twitter bots promote right-wing conspiracies, paper shows

16. Americans hate each other. But we aren’t headed for civil war.

17. The Army repeatedly screwed this combat veteran. Now he’s being kicked out of the service – again

 

1. If you play videogames, China may be spying on you

Wall Street Journal · Dave Aitel & Jordan Schneider · October 28, 2020

This may be one reason why China is dominating the online games market. Another reason may be to control the narrative. Since most of the people reading my commentary do not play video games (like me), we do not see the narratives that are being disseminated through video games, namely that China is good, strong, and respected. The online gaming market is huge and reaches so many young people. China's intent is to shape subtly their views of China.

 

2. Top officials were briefed on active threat against Pentagon leaders

NBC News · Courtney Kube & Carol E. Lee · October 29, 2020

A very significant development if true. It would be quite an operation to be able to attack senior US military leaders on US soil.

 

3. As the West stumbles, ‘helmsman’ Xi pushes an ambitious plan for China

New York Times · Chris Buckley & Steven Lee Myers · October 30, 2020

 

4. How the US and India became brothers in arms

Asia Times · Jagannath Panda · October 28, 2020

Are we really brothers in arms? I think there may be a ways to go.

 

5. Preserve America’s strategic autonomy in the Taiwan Strait

War On the Rocks · Walter Lohman & Frank Jannuzi · October 29, 2020

Interesting co-authors. The Heritage Foundation and the Mansfield Foundation are not often ideologically aligned. And Frank Januzzi was a long-term foreign policy advisor to then Senator Biden.

 

6. Philippines taking aim at China’s sea militias

Asia Times · Richard Javad Heydarian · October 29, 2020

I think China and the Philippines are about to conduct a form of naval irregular warfare.

 

7. Germany is ready to offer America a new deal

Yahoo News · Andreas Kluth · October 29, 2020

Interesting proposal.

 

8. China's hopeless Twitter influence operations

China Talk · Jordan Schneider · October 29, 2020

Long read and a lot of data. The author's key point: China has no idea how to run a Twitter network and does not do a good job amplifying its message with insincere state-run accounts.

 

9. US, China militaries talk "crisis communications" as they trade warnings before Nov. 3 election

Newsweek · Tom O'Connor · October 29, 2020

Better to jaw jaw than war war.

 

10. Is China getting ready to start a war over Taiwan?

National Interest · Dan Blumenthal · October 29, 2020

I hope not.

 

11. Behind China’s threat to support insurgency in India

Asia Times · Bertil Lintner · October 30, 2020

Chinese irregular warfare. Will China overextend itself?

 

12. Pics/Video: US launches ballistic missile 4,200 miles into the Pacific Ocean in new test

American Military News · Ryan Morgan · October 29, 2020

Kim Jong-un: this one's for you.

 

13. The United States doesn't want to reform the WTO. It wants to destroy it

National Interest · Inu Manak · October 30, 2020

Really? Cut off our nose to spite our face?

 

14. After covering civil war overseas, journalist examines U.S. militia movement

KPCW · Terry Gross · October 28, 2020

Ughh... please do not drag Special Forces into this.

 

15. Twitter bots promote right-wing conspiracies, paper shows

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · October 29, 2020

Only 13%? That means 87% are real people endorsing conspiracy theories.

 

16. Americans hate each other. But we aren’t headed for civil war.

Washington Post · Richard Hanania · October 29, 2020

Why can't we all just get along???

We need to overcome this hatred of our fellow Americans.

 

17. The Army repeatedly screwed this combat veteran. Now he’s being kicked out of the service - again

Task & Purpose · Haley Britzky · October 29, 2020

A depressing story.

 

“No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.”

- James Madison

A thought: “So long as we remain amateurs in the critical field of political warfare, the billions of dollars we annually spend on defense and foreign aid will provide us with a diminishing measure of protection.”

- Senator Mundt, 1961

Anybody can be angry, but to be angry with the right person, to the right degree, at the right time, for the right purpose, that is not easy. 

- Aristotle

10/30/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Fri, 10/30/2020 - 12:17pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. North Korea’s elite defectors

2. North Korea media decries obsolete practices after mass games

3. Military says annual defense drill is defensive in nature amid N.K. criticism

4. North Korea-backed spy group poses as reporters in spearphishing attacks, feds warn

5. North Korea says shooting death of South Korean man was self-defensive measure

6. Kim Jong Un’s mystery woman sparks debate as sister, wife remain missing

7. Why the New York Times is moving its hub to Seoul

8. S. Korea may find itself on 'front line of new Cold War' if it joins U.S.-led, anti-China alliance: adviser

9. "Neo-Cold War" in East Asia to be disaster to region: S. Korean presidential adviser - Xinhua

10. The big stare-down: Kim Jong-un awaits outcome of US election

11. Peace on Korean Peninsula ultimate goal of U.S. regardless of election outcome: Ambassador Lee

12. North Korea’s big nuke doesn’t scare the 100th Missile Defense Brigade

13. Next president will face a nuclear-armed Korea increasingly unwilling to disarm

14. Viewing North Korea through the wrong lens

15. Pyongyang post-party anniversary: shifts in construction priorities

16. N. Korea locks down areas of border after Storm Corps trooper kills superior

17. U.S. Ambassador made honorary Seoul citizen

18. Sinuiju officials intensify bribe demands amid wider economic malaise

19. Special contribution by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden

 

1. North Korea’s Elite Defectors

Diplomat · Mitch Shin · October 29, 2020

Yes, North Korea is a class system for sure. It is good to see Robert Collins’s work on Songbun with 51 classes in North Korean Society referenced in this article (Marked For Life: Songbun North Korea's Social Classification System).

A "Socialist Workers Paradise" for sure.

But this is the buried lede: I have still not seen anything confirming that Free Jeoson was behind the defection of Jo Song Gil and his wife.

 

2. North Korea media decries obsolete practices after mass games

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 28, 2020

This is an interesting development. Perhaps Kim Jong-Un has something new in mind for national competitiveness? The mass games just do not seem to make him happy. Perhaps it is because no other country in the world does anything comparable. I wonder what he has in mind to show off the greatness of the regime.

 

3. Military says annual defense drill is defensive in nature amid N.K. criticism

Yonhap News Agency · scaaet@yna.co.kr · October 29, 2020

Don't back down. I am glad to see South Korea conducting exercises and training in spite of North Korean criticism. But it should not be "defensive" about conducting defensive exercises. It has every right to train to defend its country.

 

4. North Korea-backed spy group poses as reporters in spearphishing attacks, feds warn

Threat Post · Tara Seals · October 28, 2020

When I sent out the government warning from CISA/CERT it came back as blocked by the server for some of the recipients.

Perhaps this message about the warning will go through.

Here is the key information from the warning (the link to the CERT/CISA warning).

A lot of data in this warning for all the cyber experts. But here is the public service announcement for all Korea watchers who routinely get press inquiries.

This is very important for all of us to understand and be aware of.

 

5. North Korea says shooting death of South Korean man was self-defensive measure

Reuters · Hyonhee Shin · October 29, 2020

Admit nothing; deny everything; make counter accusations.  Or just spin the events whichever way that suits you. The Kim family regime is a real piece of work.

 

6. Kim Jong Un’s mystery woman sparks debate as sister, wife remain missing

New York Post · Yaron Steinbuch · October 29, 2020

Maybe this is how Kim wants to compete on the world stage. The mass games are obsolete. Perhaps providing tabloid type news to garner attention is the way to go. Kim is giving the world a soap opera view of the regime. Maybe he wants to compete in the realm of reality TV stars. His show is "wives and mistresses of the regime."

 

7. Why the New York Times is moving its hub to Seoul

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · October 28, 2020

Very interesting development.  This says a lot for Seoul and South Korea.

 

8. S. Korea may find itself on 'front line of new Cold War' if it joins U.S.-led, anti-China alliance: adviser

Yonhap News Agency · sshluck@yna.co.kr · October 29, 2020

Moon Chung-In is at it again. These remarks and his views are not helpful to South Korea. He is no friend of the ROK/US alliance.

 

9. "Neo-Cold War" in East Asia to be disaster to region: S. Korean presidential adviser - Xinhua

Xinhua Net · October 30, 2020

Of course, the Chinese Communist Party's mouthpiece picks up on Moon Chung-In's remarks. This is perfect for the Chinese narrative. Well done, Moon Chung-In. Your friends are in Pyongyang and Beijing.    know this is insensitive, but I would ban Moon Chung-In from future entry to the US based on his lack of support for the ROK/US alliance (I know that is hyperbolic and over the top, but we need to call out Moon for his damaging anti-alliance rhetoric).

 

10. The big stare-down: Kim Jong-un awaits outcome of US election

Business Day · Hyonhee Shin · October 30, 2020

The question is what is he going to do after the election?

My assessment of some possibilities:

Whether Trump or Biden wins, this is what I assess as the most likely North Korean course of action. The intent will be to demonstrate an advanced capability to bring the US to the negotiating table and provide concessions in return for ending the development of the "new" ICBM and SLBM, because they are potential threats to the US. I think an SLBM launch will be below the threshold demanding a response. An ICBM launch (the new Hwasong 16) to the atmosphere with a re-entry capability will be too great a threat to the US and almost certainly there will be demands for a military response which Kim does not want  Also, a nuclear test will demand a response because both and ICBM and nuclear test would cross Trump's apparent red line: he has an agreement with Kim not to test these. Also, China may be working as we speak to prevent a nuclear test as it does not want any more tests conducted because of the damage to the nuclear test site and the fact that the radiation effects may impact China. China has recently been trying to shore up its alliance with the North and this could be one of the reasons.

Since we are likely to be distracted for some weeks due to the election, we need to pay attention to possible North Korean actions. Kim may very well try to take advantage of the chaos to set the conditions for future negotiations in order to extract concessions from the US.

 

11. Peace on Korean Peninsula ultimate goal of U.S. regardless of election outcome: Ambassador Lee

Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-kun · October 29, 2020

Yes, we want peace. Mr. Ambassador, I would take it a step further. The only way we will see peace on the peninsula and an end to the North's nuclear weapons threat and its crimes against humanity will be through the resolution of the Korean question and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea (UROK). Not any kind of confederation of one country and two systems. Only a UROK.

 

12. North Korea’s big nuke doesn’t scare the 100th Missile Defense Brigade

Washington Examiner · Abraham Mahshie · October 29, 2020

Good messaging from the Lieutenant Colonel. I assume it is our intention to reveal all the capabilities described below. I hope VOA and RFA pick up on this for broadcast into Pyongyang. 

 

13. Next president will face a nuclear-armed Korea increasingly unwilling to disarm

Washington Examiner · Jamie McIntyre · October 29, 2020

Increasingly unwilling? He was never willing in the first place.

 

14. Viewing North Korea through the wrong lens

 

New Europe · Brad Adams · October 30, 2020

Human rights are not only a moral imperative, they are a national security issue. We need to focus on human rights in North Korea as much as, if not more than, we focus on the nuclear program.

 

15. Pyongyang post-party anniversary: shifts in construction priorities

38 North · Peter Makowsky · October 29, 2020

The hospital was supposed to be completed in time for the October 10th celebration.  Another regime failure.

 

16. N. Korea locks down areas of border after Storm Corps trooper kills superior

Daily NK · Kim Yoo Jin · October 30, 2020

We must always be observant for indications of a breakdown in the military chains of control (control versus command… there are three: the traditional military chain, the political chain, and the security or anti-coup chain). Instability and regime collapse will occur when the regime/party is not longer able to govern the entire North from Pyongyang, combined with the loss of coherency and support of the military. A breakdown in the chains of control will be an indicator in the loss of coherency.

This is, of course only, one incident. But we must be vigilant and look for other pieces of the puzzle.

 

17. U.S. Ambassador made honorary Seoul citizen

Chosun Ilbo · October 30, 2020

Kudos to our Ambassador.

 

18. Sinuiju officials intensify bribe demands amid wider economic malaise

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · October 29, 2020

Another indicator of central governing effectiveness (or lack thereof).

 

19. Special contribution by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden

Yonhap News Agency · October 30, 2020

I had to think before deciding to include this article. I offer this not from any partisan perspective or endorsement. I do think it is very interesting the former Vice President would choose to write and publish this now. It may garner some votes in the Korean-American community, but this will not have any significant effect on the election outcome.

But I think we have to look at this from a US foreign policy perspective, because if he is elected, this appears to be his blueprint for the ROK/US alliance. He is obviously trying to describe the vast difference between him and the President. 

Our Korean allies pick up on the SMA issue, but I what I want to call attention to is the idea that he will  "keep pressing for a unified Korean Peninsula." The Joint Vision Statements of Presidents Obama, Lee, and Park have all stated peaceful unification as the goal and President Trump and President Moon reaffirmed this on June 30, 2017 in their joint statement that said South Korea would take the lead and the US would support it in establishing the conditions for peaceful unification. But all of those are joint statements and I do not recall either President Obama or President Trump (or Presidents Bush and Clinton) talking about unification outside of a joint statement with their counterpart.

Of course, this is published in the semi-official Yonhap News Agency for both a Korean and US audience. However, I think the emphasis on unification is important (and kudos to the Vice President's Korea advisors for ensuring he includes it). But why is Korean unification important? As I have written many times:

The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

“No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.”

- James Madison

A thought: “So long as we remain amateurs in the critical field of political warfare, the billions of dollars we annually spend on defense and foreign aid will provide us with a diminishing measure of protection.”

- Senator Mundt, 1961

Anybody can be angry, but to be angry with the right person, to the right degree, at the right time, for the right purpose, that is not easy. 

- Aristotle

TERRORISM FUTURES: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use

Thu, 10/29/2020 - 5:08pm

TERRORISM FUTURES: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use

Dr. Robert J. Bunker, Small Wars Journal-El Centro Senior Fellow has just released a new pocketbook—TERRORISM FUTURES: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use  examining the future of terrorism with an emphasis on evolving technology and the development of terrorist TTPs embracing that technology.

Terrorism Futures

The Terrorism Futures: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use pocketbook is derived from a series of nine essays written by Dr. Robert J. Bunker between December 2014 and June 2017 for TRENDS Research & Advisory, Abu Dhabi, UAE. With subsequent organizational and website changes at TRENDS a majority of these essays are no longer accessible via the present iteration of the entity's website. In order to preserve this collection of forward-thinking counterterrorism writings, the author has elected to publish them as a C/O Futures pocketbook with the inclusion of new front and back essays and a foreword by Rohan Gunaratna. Technologies and TTPs analyzed include virtual martyrdom, IED drones, disruptive targeting, fifth dimensional battlespace, close to the body bombs, body cavity bombs, counter-optical lasers, homemade firearms, printed firearms, remote controlled firearms, social media bots, AI text generators, AVBIEDs, and FPS/live streaming attacks.

Source: Robert J. Bunker, TERRORISM FUTURES: Evolving Technology and TTPs Use. (A C/O Futures Pocketbook.) Bloomington: XLibris, 2020, https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1664137815/ref=dbs_a_def_rwt_bibl_vppi_i35.

10/29/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Thu, 10/29/2020 - 9:41am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. arrests five alleged Chinese agents, accusing them of targeting dissidents

2.  The West Is Surprisingly Well-Equipped for Gray-Zone Deterrence

3. Roundtable highlights media's role in fighting 'infodemic' amid COVID-19

4. The CCP’s Global Political Expansion: Why Can’t the Chinese Communist Party Become a Responsible Stakeholder?

5.  Subverting the Global Narrative: The Chinese Communist Party’s Propaganda Apparatus Seeks to Rule the World’s Media

6. China is not a threat to US liberty or democracy

7. The Year in Misinformation, So Far

8. China’s Real Invasion of Taiwan Has Already Started

9. Why American Strategy Fails: Ending the Chronic Imbalance Between Ends and Means

10. SecNav Says China Poses 'Threat Beyond Any Comparison' to American Way of Life

11.  Air Force Meshes Info-War Capabilities

12. No Matter Who Wins the U.S. Election, Relations With China Are at a Crossroads

13. Trump Admin Sets Allied Defense Spending Targets, Taiwan Deals Lead Way

14. Rangers, Green Berets Showing Interest in New Nonlethal M4 Carbine, Firm Says

15. Con man and fake spy who once worked at DEA gets seven years in prison

16. What a New Army App Reveals About the State of Defense Department Innovation

17. Will COVID-Stressed Countries Slow Their Arms Buys?

18. American money for American ideas: Think tanks should disclose foreign funding

19. The 200 Millisecond Mission: Inside the Secret CIA Plan to Steal Soviet Missile Data

20. World War II: How America Treated Nazi and Imperial Japanese Prisoners

 

1. U.S. arrests five alleged Chinese agents, accusing them of targeting dissidents

The Washington Post· by Devlin Barrett · October 28, 2020

I concur with FBI Director Wray. I think he is spot on: “China is violating norms and laws left and right,” said FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, adding that the unprecedented case sends a clear message to the Chinese government that “surveilling, stalking, harassing and blackmailing our citizens and lawful permanent residents carry serious risks.”

 

2. The West Is Surprisingly Well-Equipped for Gray-Zone Deterrence

defenseone.com · October 28, 2020

A surprising title and thesis.

Conclusion:

“The advantage in gray-zone warfare is that the attacker can strike in a time and manner of its choosing. But, unlike traditional conflicts featuring troops that attack and counter-attack in relatively set pattern, a gray-zone defender has the very same advantage as an attacker: it can deliver punishment in a time and manner of its choosing.

In its cost-benefit calculation, the attacker must thus count in the cost of a surprise response whose nature it can’t predict. That asymmetric potential leaves us, the West, surprisingly well-equipped to punish gray-zone attacks. What we need now is a great deal of creativity.”

 

3. Roundtable highlights media's role in fighting 'infodemic' amid COVID-19

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · October 29, 2020

Hosted by Sputnik???  Well, it is very experienced at disinformation.

 

4. The CCP’s Global Political Expansion: Why Can’t the Chinese Communist Party Become a Responsible Stakeholder?

ipdefenseforum.com · by Dr. Jinghao Zhou

This is from INDOPACOM's publication - INDOPACOM Defense Forum.

Key point from the conclusion: Clearly, the CCP wants to turn China into the world’s dominant superpower while retaining its one-party system at home. Determined by the nature of the CCP, China will not become a responsible stakeholder in the U.S.-led international order as long as the CCP retains its power. When the China Dream meets “America First,” the confrontation between the two countries becomes inevitable. To preserve its values and sovereignty, the United States must prepare for a long-standing ideological war and potential military confrontation with China over the Indo-Pacific region while decisively competing with the CCP in many areas, especially trade and high technology. It is critical to understand the nature of the CCP to win the second global competition with communist China.

 

5. Subverting the Global Narrative: The Chinese Communist Party’s Propaganda Apparatus Seeks to Rule the World’s Media

ipdefenseforum.com · by IPDForum

Also from INDPACOM's publication: INDOPACOM Defense Forum.

 

6. China is not a threat to US liberty or democracy

asiatimes.com · by Denny Roy · October 28, 2020

And now for something completely different.  Certainly a different view than what we are reading in current newspaper and journal articles. But worth reading.

Conclusion:

“China is not a serious threat to US democracy. Americans are increasingly wise to Chinese influence operations involving the few issues at play, such as Chinese economic pressure on China-exposed US businesses to watch what they say about Taiwan or Hong Kong.

The Chinese social, economic and political models have no significant appeal in the US. Moreover, while the CCP leadership clearly wants to keep political liberalism out of China, there is little if any indication that the Chinese are hankering to destroy America’s freedoms.

China’s external behavior is more authoritarian than communist, more Machiavellian praxis than Marxist theory and more a way of doing business than an ideology.”

 

7. The Year in Misinformation, So Far

The New York Times · by Kevin Roose

Some very important analysis and data from Zignal Labs

 

8. China’s Real Invasion of Taiwan Has Already Started

The Daily Beast · by Brendon Hong · October 28, 2020

All countries with United Front Departments must be treated as threats.  They exist to conduct subversion.

 

9. Why American Strategy Fails: Ending the Chronic Imbalance Between Ends and Means

Foreign Affairs · by James A. Winnefeld, Michael J. Morell, and Graham Allison · October 28, 2020

We must seek balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means.  But as they write -easier said than done (because as the also write we are "stuck in our ways") : "From our experience as national security officials—in the military, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Department of Defense—we understand why correcting this imbalance is easy to say but hard to do."

 

10. SecNav Says China Poses 'Threat Beyond Any Comparison' to American Way of Life

military.com · by Gina Harkins · October 28, 2020

Strong words from the SECNAV.

 

11. Air Force Meshes Info-War Capabilities

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Yasmin Tadjdeh· October 28, 2020

 

12. No Matter Who Wins the U.S. Election, Relations With China Are at a Crossroads

TIME · by charlie.campbell@time.com

Is this a true statement?

 

13. Trump Admin Sets Allied Defense Spending Targets, Taiwan Deals Lead Way

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Interesting excerpts:

Part of the US strategy in the region is to coax allies into spending more on their own defense.

Recently, Defense Secretary Mark Esper and National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien suggested that the new “gold standard” for allies across the globe is to spend 2% of their GDP on defense.

The goal has been a part of NATO planning since 2014. Only a handful of nations have reached the threshold, which has rankled President Trump since he took office. That anger boiled over during a messy blowup at a July 2018 NATO meeting in Brussels where he threatened to leave the alliance.

Earlier this month, Esper called the 2% goal “the floor” of what the administration expects from all allies. “We expect all allies to invest more in defense, at least 2 percent of GDP,” he said.

Why doesn't the administration respect South Korea's level of commitment to defense since it spends about 2.7% of its GDP on defense and on top of that does things like build the US the largest military base outside of the US - funding 93% of the $10.7 billion cost. The Administration should be using South Korea as an exemplar.

 

14. Rangers, Green Berets Showing Interest in New Nonlethal M4 Carbine, Firm Says

military.com · by Matthew Cox · October 28, 2020

nonlethal???

 

15. Con man and fake spy who once worked at DEA gets seven years in prison

NBC News · by Ken Dilanian · October 28, 2020

Truth is stranger than fiction.  Does he spend seven years for each of his five aliases? (apologies for the attempt at humor).

 

16. What a New Army App Reveals About the State of Defense Department Innovation

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Excerpt:

“Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of Govini, said that the Defense Department needs to explore new ways to buy software in order to enable personnel at mid and lower ranks to actually work with the sorts of tools that entry-level workers at successful companies can use. “The standard for these types of things, data, software, should be licensing not owning… it gets back to culture and the fact that the default for when you’re writing a contract is to use DFAR clauses that assume the government has to own it all… The DFAR clauses in contracts should be limited rights where commercial IP is protected,” in particular, she said, the Department needs to look at new ways to rent or license software and data that can make apps like the one conceived by Adams more useful and functional. “The Department has a phenomenal understanding of its own data, a disastrous view of global markets,” she said.”

 

17. Will COVID-Stressed Countries Slow Their Arms Buys?

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber

I would expect so. 

But here is some irony:

“By the way, Cooper added, the economic downturns could result in more NATO allies meeting the alliance’s goal of members spending 2 percent of their gross domestic product on defense.

“Bizarrely, we may have some states where their numbers look like they've had an increase [in defense spending] because they've had a drop in GDP,” he said.”

 

18.  American money for American ideas: Think tanks should disclose foreign funding

The Hill · by Herman Pirchner, Jr · October 28, 2020

 

19. The 200 Millisecond Mission: Inside the Secret CIA Plan to Steal Soviet Missile Data

Popular Mechanics · by David Hambling · October 28, 2020

Some interesting history.

 

20. World War II: How America Treated Nazi and Imperial Japanese Prisoners

The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · October 28, 2020

More interesting history.  We should learn from this.  Though we should keep in mind at the same time we interned Japanese Americans.

I recall training at Camp Bullis in Texas where German POWs were held.  There was a huge swimming pool that was like a huge concrete lake that was apparently dug by the prisoners.  Back in the 80's or 90's when I was there it was still in use.

I would also recall what Mao said about treatment of POWs: “We further our mission of destroying the enemy by propagandizing his troops, by treating his captured soldiers with consideration, and by caring for those of his wounded who fall into our hands” (page 93):

 

 

--------------

“Virtue is a state of war, and to live in it we have always to combat with ourselves.”

 

-Jean-Jacques Rousseau

 

 

"Americans fully understand the requirement of the football field or the baseball diamond. They discipline themselves and suffer by the thousands to prepare for these rigors. A coach or manager who is too permissive soon seeks a new job; his team will fail against those who are tougher and harder. Yet undoubtedly any American officer, in peacetime, who worked his men as hard, or ruled them as severely as a college football coach does, would be removed. But the shocks of the battlefield are a hundred times those of the playing field, and the outcome infinitely more important to the nation. The problem is to understand the battlefield as well as the game of football. The problem is to see not what is desirable, or nice, or politically feasible, but what is necessary. 

 

- T.R. Fehrenbach

 

 

"Diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments." 

 

- Prussian King Frederick the Great

 

10/29/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 10/29/2020 - 9:02am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1.  U.S. Forces Korea aide calls into question OPCON plans

2. Denuclearization will bring prosperity of N. Korea, not end of regime: O'Brien

3. Instead of learning from South Korea’s coronavirus example, Trump is lying about it

4. Xi renews commitment to firming up relations with N. Korea 'generation after generation'

5. Roundtable highlights media's role in fighting 'infodemic' amid COVID-19 | Yonhap News Agency

6. Kim Jong Un: A Meticulous Leader

7. Digital Entanglement: Lessons Learned from China’s Growing Digital Footprint in South Korea

8. N.K. slams top S. Korean security official over remarks about inter-Korean ties

9. More North Korea workers receive no pay amid sanctions, survey says

10. Senior diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. hold phone talks on WTO chief selection

11. Statement from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on the WTO Director-General Selection Process

12. Xi's war anniversary speech strengthens case for South Korea-US alliance: Korea Herald

13. Time to Accept North Korea As a Nuclear Weapons State?

14. North Korea Has at Least 6,000 Hackers (And Might Strike the U.S.)

15. Analysis: With improved leverage, North Korea leader Kim awaits winner of U.S. vote

16. No post-US election party for South Korean policymakers

17. Using Proactive Information Campaigns to Break the North Korean Regime’s Information Suppression

18. Seoul Won't Back UN Resolution on N.Korea Rights Violations

19. Soldiers Injured as North Korea Deploys Landmines at Sino-Korean Border to Stop Escapees

20. What Trump and Biden get wrong about North Korea - Responsible Statecraft

21. South Korea's high court upholds ex-president's 17-year prison sentence

22. N. Korean authorities crackdown on homemade alcohol production

 

1.  U.S. Forces Korea aide calls into question OPCON plans

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim· October 27, 2020

Who is this person Ham Ji-min, a USFK assistant chief of staff?  Is he a serving officer?  What he is proposing is one of the original plans for OPCON transition which was the dissolution of the ROK/us cfc into separate commands with the ROK warfighting command as the supported command and the US Command (which had been proposed to be named the Korean Command or KORCOM)  would be the supporting command.  ROK and US military leaders determined separate commands were not effective for deterrence and defense and for warfighting.

Note: when I posted this on twitter I received this response from a senior advisor at USFK.  It looks like Elizabeth Shim and UPI (and Mail Business) may have been the victims of some disinformation. I could not find the article on Mail Business.

2. Denuclearization will bring prosperity of N. Korea, not end of regime: O'Brien

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 29, 2020

The NSA reaffirms our policy - if north Korea makes the right strategic decision it can have a brighter future.

However I think Kim Jong-un would disagree with him about the end of the regime.  Out policy is actually a dual threat to the regime.  Kim believes he must have nuclear weapons to survive - not only to deter an attack (the belief the US will not attack another nuclear armed state) but it is also key to blackmail diplomacy which is key to near term survival while supporting the long term strategy to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  Kim has no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons.

Counterintuitively perhaps for some, a brighter future is also a threat to the regime's survival.  The brighter future means economic development and economic engagement with means an inflow of contact with and information from the outside world.  We should never forget that Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people most of all which is why he must systematically deny the human rights of all Korean people in the north.  

So while our policy is logical and makes perfect sense to the entire world but from Kim Jong-un's perspective it is a threat to him and his regime and rule.

Kim is not going to give up his nuclear weapons.  He will continue to conduct his political warfare strategy and prepare to use force when the conditions are right.  This is a summary of his strategy: It is a seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime

Therefore, while we do not seek regime change in the Iraq and Libya models, the strategy we need is to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) which must lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will bring peace and stability to the Korean peninsula: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

3. Instead of learning from South Korea’s coronavirus example, Trump is lying about it

The Washington Post · October 27, 2020

Secretary Azar's comments are ignorant and ill-informed and unhelpful to our alliance. As we know, South Korea did not lockdown the nation and its economy is now recovering with third quarter growth.  

Jenny Town's comment is spot on: “South Koreans don’t comply with invasive contact tracing because they are Asian, they comply with it because they have been through pandemics before and they understand the severity of the danger,” said Jenny Town, a fellow at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan policy research organization.

 

4. Xi renews commitment to firming up relations with N. Korea 'generation after generation'

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 29, 2020

We should never forget that north Korea poses an existential threat to South Korea.  South Korea should keep that in mind when it deals with China.

 

5. Roundtable highlights media's role in fighting 'infodemic' amid COVID-19 | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · October 29, 2020

Hosted by Sputnik???  Well, it is very experienced at disinformation.

 

6.  Kim Jong Un: A Meticulous Leader

leftreviewonline.com · October 28, 2020

"Left Review Online" is associated with the CCP's propaganda mouthpiece, the Global Times.

I wonder if the north Korean Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) ghost wrote this.  This is the most favorable article about Korean Jong-un I have read from outside of north Korea (Of course there are many articles published around the world by the Korean Friendship Associations but I think those are written by the PAD.

 

7. Digital Entanglement: Lessons Learned from China’s Growing Digital Footprint in South Korea

cnas.org· by Kristine Lee, Martijn Rasser, Joshua Fitt and Coby Goldberg

Conclusion:

“The competition between Beijing’s 5G offerings and nascent democratic alternatives is playing out most consequentially in U.S. allied countries—such as South Korea—that already have deep economic and technological interdependencies with China. Thus far, the U.S. approach has been largely limited to a fierce, at times heavy-handed, global campaign about the dangers of Huawei. Meanwhile, U.S. investments in 5G research and international standard-setting bodies remain either meagerly funded or not yet fully enacted.

Talk is cheap but unwinding digital entanglement with China is not. Many American allies and partners perceive tough reassessments of Chinese technology companies as coming with serious costs to fix a problem that poses unclear risks. Persuading them otherwise will require a deep American investment in the technologies, governing mechanisms, commercial incentive packages, and private sector partnerships that undergird alliances—all of which are too often taken for granted. These investments should, of course, be coupled with a comprehensive communications and public diplomacy strategy. Without a nuanced policy approach calibrated to the domestic needs of allies most exposed to Chinese technological entanglement, the United States might find itself at the head of a shrinking coalition of the increasingly unwilling.”

 

8. N.K. slams top S. Korean security official over remarks about inter-Korean ties

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 29, 2020

The spin machine of the Propaganda and Agitation Department is in top form at work here.

 

9. More North Korea workers receive no pay amid sanctions, survey says

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim· October 28, 2020

It is not the sanctions that are the cause. It is the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un.  He is responsible for the people's suffering.  He has prioritized his nuclear weapons over the welfare of the people.  Every time someone blames sanctions they are giving Kim Jong-un a pass.  He must be held accountable.

in the South." Analysts have said Kim could be signaling an interest in returning to talks.

 

10. Senior diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. hold phone talks on WTO chief selection

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 28, 2020

 

11. Statement from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on the WTO Director-General Selection Process

ustr.gov

The US supports the selection of South Korean Yoo Myung-hee for the head of the WTO.

 

12. Xi's war anniversary speech strengthens case for South Korea-US alliance: Korea Herald

straitstimes.com

And more than the ROK/US alliance. It should influence South Korea to align with not only the US but other like-minded democracies in the regions and around the world.  I hope Xi's speech was a wakeup call for the Korean people and they pressure the Moon administration appropriately.

 

13. Time to Accept North Korea As a Nuclear Weapons State?

The National Interest · by Harry J. Kazianis · October 28, 2020

The one hour+ video is at this link

I think more than a few people believe Kim Jong-un will not give up his nuclear weapons. 

There is, however, a growing minority that argues Pyongyang will never accept denuclearizing in full, and that implicitly or explicitly, the U.S. and its allies must come to terms with decades of policy failures and work towards arms control with Pyongyang. That means either giving up on denuclearization entirely, or, taking the goal of a North Korea free of nuclear weapons and placing it far into the future when a peace accord on the Korean peninsula is fully established.

But that does not mean we have to accept and treat north Korea as a nuclear weapons state.  There is still the long term course of action to solve the Korea question which is the only way we will see an end to the nuclear threat and the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed in the north.

 

14. North Korea Has at Least 6,000 Hackers (And Might Strike the U.S.)

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · October 28, 2020

Might?  I think we know they already have struck the US.

 

15. Analysis: With improved leverage, North Korea leader Kim awaits winner of U.S. vote

ca.reuters.com · by Hyonhee Shin

Kim Jong-un only has leverage if we allow him to have it. We must conduct a superior form of political warfare.

 

16. No post-US election party for South Korean policymakers

eastasiaforum.org · by Anthony Rinna · October 29, 2020

Whoever wins the election will have his work cut out for him to get us through the perfect storm the is engulfing the ROK/US alliance.

This excerpt gets to one of the most fundamental issues:

“Reflecting on this reality with unusual candour, South Korea’s Ambassador to the United States Lee Soo-hyuck asserted that Seoul may not always stand on Washington’s side, a comment pertinent in the context of Beijing’s economic leverage over the country. To be sure, Lee’s position is not necessarily reflective of official South Korean foreign policy, as his comments drew reproach from ROK foreign minister Kang Kyung-hwa herself. Nevertheless, amidst the fallout over Lee’s remarks, former ROK ambassador to the US Choi Sung-jin asserted that such frankness was acceptable is South Korea and the United States truly are equal partners.”

Going forward, is the ROK/US alliance going to be one of equal partners when it comes to strategy and action on the Korean peninsula?

 

17. Using Proactive Information Campaigns to Break the North Korean Regime’s Information Suppression

nkhiddengulag.org  · October 27, 2020

I commend the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea and their internship writing program.  And those that read what I wrote know that I am especially appreciative that Junsoung "Steve" Kim is writing about information and influence activities.

We must emphasize this clear statement:

“Therefore, to promote democracy and advance human rights in North Korea, the inflow of information is crucial. The United States and its allies need to engage in operating information campaigns sharing the truth about the Kim regime by using lessons from Cold War information campaigns strategies.”

 

18. Seoul Won't Back UN Resolution on N.Korea Rights Violations

english.chosun.com

Disappointing.

 

19. Soldiers Injured as North Korea Deploys Landmines at Sino-Korean Border to Stop Escapees

rfa.org· by Sewon Kim · October 27, 2020

Mines are dangerous. But if soldiers are being injured imagine what will happen to smugglers trying to cross the border.

 

20. What Trump and Biden get wrong about North Korea - Responsible Statecraft

responsiblestatecraft.org · by Christine Ahn · October 26, 2020

I think this is more aptly titled what Christine Ahn gets wrong about Kim Jong-un.

Christine Ahn should be registered as a foreign agent.  Her long time handler is Pak Chol from north Korea and the United Front Department.  She is a long time north Korean apologist if not an agent of influence for the regime.  You can read about her here: https://freekorea.us/2019/11/christine-ahn-pak-chol-and-the-united-front-department/.  Those government officials dealing with her should be concerned with her direct connections to the department responsible for political subversion.  My recommendation is that for security purposes no government official should engage with someone who is compromised.

How is a peace treaty or end of war declaration going to enhance the security of South Korea?  South Korean faces the existential threat from the north.  north Korea is postured for offensive operations and has the stated objective to dominate the Korean peninsula. This is what people like Ms. Ahn do not understand about north Korea.

 

21. South Korea's high court upholds ex-president's 17-year prison sentence

Los Angeles Times · by Associated Press · October 29, 2020

I fear the Moon administration is conducting rule by law to attack its political enemies.  What is happening to former Presidents Lee and  Park should give everyone pause.

 

22. N. Korean authorities crackdown on homemade alcohol production

dailynk.com· by Kang Mi Jin · October 29, 2020 

Two points. A morale killer by the regime.

But second, this is an indicator there is either excess agricultural resources to contribute to this or the economic opportunities from selling moonshine are significant.  If that is true then some of the population must have some discretionary income.

But perhaps the real point is the people need the diversion offered by alcohol to ease their pain and suffering (or mask the pain temporarily).

 

-------------

 

“Virtue is a state of war, and to live in it we have always to combat with ourselves.”

-Jean-Jacques Rousseau

 

"Americans fully understand the requirement of the football field or the baseball diamond. They discipline themselves and suffer by the thousands to prepare for these rigors. A coach or manager who is too permissive soon seeks a new job; his team will fail against those who are tougher and harder. Yet undoubtedly any American officer, in peacetime, who worked his men as hard, or ruled them as severely as a college football coach does, would be removed. But the shocks of the battlefield are a hundred times those of the playing field, and the outcome infinitely more important to the nation. The problem is to understand the battlefield as well as the game of football. The problem is to see not what is desirable, or nice, or politically feasible, but what is necessary. 

- T.R. Fehrenbach

 

"Diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments." 

- Prussian King Frederick the Great

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gangs in lockdown: Impact of Covid-19 restrictions on gangs in east and southern Africa

Wed, 10/28/2020 - 2:27pm

Gangs in lockdown: Impact of Covid-19 restrictions on gangs in east and southern Africa

The coronavirus pandemic has altered communities and the political economy of states throughout East and southern Africa.  Lockdowns in particular have profound social impacts. This study—Gangs in lockdown: Impact of Covid-19 restrictions on gangs in east and southern Africa—from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) explores the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on gangs and illicit economies by using Cape Town, South Africa, as a lens to analyze trends across the East and southern African region.

Gangs in Lockdown

The study's author Julia Standard draws on in-depth reportage together with interviews across the Cape Flats with gang members, community members and civil-society activists, to chart the first hundred days of lockdown. This case study is integrated with insights from the GI-TOC's network of researchers in Cape Town, other cities in South Africa, Kenya, and Tanzania. The report concludes that the lockdowns have brought about significant change in a number of areas, namely how gangs operate economically; the political power they wield over communities; levels of violence and street-level crime; and the relationship between corrupt law enforcement officials and gang members.

A summary of Gangs in lockdown is available here.  A timeline: "Cape Town Lockdown Timetime" is available here; and the full report can be downloaded here

Source: Julia Stanyard, Gangs in lockdown: Impact of Covid-19 restrictions on gangs in east and southern Africa. Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 28 October 2020, https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Gangs-in-lockdown-Impact-of-Covid-19-restrictions-on-gangs-in-east-and-southern-Africa-GITOC.pdf 

 

10/28/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Wed, 10/28/2020 - 9:34am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. US senators seek to declare China 'genocide' against Uighurs

2. Trump team reinforces a fundamental reality: China must change

3. China's COVID triumphalism could be premature

4. NSA O'Brien's Latest Audible on Navy Plans: Calls For More Frigates, Faster

5. How the United States Handed China its Rare Earth Monopoly

6. How the US can build cooperation in the Pacific

7. Does the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella Still Protect America's Allies?

8. GM Defense delivers its first Infantry Squad Vehicles to U.S. Army

9. Will U.S. Troops Return to Taiwan?

10. Pompeo Touts U.S.-India Defense Deal, With an Eye on China

11. The Headwinds Looming for the U.S. Army

12. Retooling U.S. Security Sector Assistance

13. Al Qaeda Feels Losses in Syria and Afghanistan but Stays Resilient

14. Esper, Pompeo drive US anti-China message in India visit

15. Emails reveal how Capt. Crozier's pleas for help from the Navy fell on deaf ears until his bombshell letter leaked

16. Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter launches the Integrated Operating Concept

17. Drop in insurgent attacks, coalition airstrikes leads to fewest civilian casualties in Afghanistan since 2012

18. U.S. overbearing meddling shows hegemonic bigotry

19. Background on rescinding a so-called "firewall rule"

20. Pushback As Trump Appointee Tries To Control VOA

21. Joint Statement on the third India-U.S. 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

22. China shocked to discover the developed world views it in a negative light

 

1. US senators seek to declare China 'genocide' against Uighurs

news.yahoo.com · October 27, 2020

Excerpts:

The UN convention on genocide, drafted in the aftermath of the Holocaust, obligates states to prevent and punish the "odious scourge."

It defines genocide to include actions such as killing as well as preventing births "with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group."

A data-driven study by German researcher Adrian Zenz found that China has forcibly sterilized large numbers of Uighur women and pressured them to abort pregnancies that exceed birth quotas.

The Trump administration earlier described Myanmar's brutal campaign against the mostly Muslim Rohingya people as "ethnic cleansing."

US senators seek to declare China 'genocide' against Uighurs

 

2. Trump team reinforces a fundamental reality: China must change

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco· October 27, 2020

Conclusion: "As has been said, "America First" does not mean America alone - and China is reminding the West of why it needs to remain united."

 

3. China's Covid triumphalism could be premature

Financial Times · by Gideon Rachman · October 26, 2020

Excerpt: "The inability to accept criticism suggests that pro-Beijing triumphalism is premature. In broad terms, there is not much doubt that China, after mishandling the initial outbreak, has done a good job of containing the disease. But some Asian democracies, such as South Korea and Taiwan, have done even better, which undermines Mr Xi's claim that China's "socialist system" was the key to success. China's urge to suppress criticism also suggests that if there are continuing problems inside the country, Beijing will cover them up."

 

4. NSA O'Brien's Latest Audible on Navy Plans: Calls For More Frigates, Faster

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

The left hand not talking to the right hand?  The NSA is not in the chain of command, administrative or otherwise.

 

5. How the United States Handed China its Rare Earth Monopoly

Foreign Policy · by Jamil Hijazi, James Kennedy · October 27, 2020

Conclusion: "The history around publicly funding private ventures that require subsidies to survive also suggests that Rubio's proposal may be more on the mark-particularly since it addresses one of the root causes of the United States' fall from dominance to begin with. In that way, the plan may put the United States back on the right path."

 

6. How the US can build cooperation in the Pacific

aspistrategist.org.au · by Steven McGann · October 27, 2020

Conclusion: "There's a longstanding record of Congress using legislation to direct foreign policy initiatives that unify the efforts of American civilian agencies and the military. The competition with China and others challenging the US in the Pacific requires a resources-based strategy that underpins US regional commitments. For US allies and partner nations, a coordinated, comprehensive and cohesive approach would become a useful planning tool to meet common objectives."

 

7. Does the U.S. Nuclear Umbrella Still Protect America's Allies?

Foreign Policy · by Ivo H. Daalder · October 27, 2020

Conclusion:

The next president needs to forestall destabilizing steps by allied nations as they rethink their nuclear security by clearly and unequivocally reaffirming that the United States' alliances and collective defense commitments remain central to its national security. This affirmation must include a formal recommitment to allied nuclear security.

Words alone, however, may not be enough. The next administration should open up its nuclear planning processes to allies and include them in its deliberations on nuclear strategy, deployments, and modernization. It will also need to prioritize new nuclear arms control negotiations, starting with an extension of the New START agreement with Russia, while taking allied concerns about existing and evolving nuclear threats into account.

 

8. GM Defense delivers its first Infantry Squad Vehicles to U.S. Army

foxbusiness.com · by Gary Gastelu

 

9. Will U.S. Troops Return to Taiwan?

realclearworld.com · by Phillip Orchard

I doubt it but it would be quite a signal and quite provocative.  Although I intuitively support this I do have to ask what effect we would be trying to achieve?  Are the effects worth the potential costs?

I am confused by the map graphic below showing US naval bases and facilities in the INDOPACIFC - Fort Magsaysay airfield in the Philippines is a US Naval facility?  Utapao in Thailand is a US Naval facility?  I did not know.

 

10. Pompeo Touts U.S.-India Defense Deal, With an Eye on China

WSJ · by William Mauldin and Rajesh Roy

SECSTATE statement: "Our leaders and our citizens see with increasing clarity that the [Chinese Communist Party] is no friend to democracy, the rule of law, transparency, nor to freedom of navigation-the foundation of a free and open and prosperous Indo-Pacific."

 

11. The Headwinds Looming for the U.S. Army

warontherocks.com · by David Barno · October 27, 2020

Conclusion: "Taken together, these changes will challenge the Army's traditional identity as the service that delivers war-winning outcomes on land for the nation. It is going to get smaller, and become a supporting service in the nation's primary theater of potential conflict. Its missions will also expand to include a greater role in homeland security, and the importance and relevance of its reserve component may eclipse that of its active forces in some domains of future conflict. Navigating the Army through these tremendous challenges will require imagination, resilience, and resolve at every level of command, especially as resources decline. Army senior leaders will need to challenge some of the assumptions that have long guided the force, and overcome deeply ingrained orthodoxies about the relative priorities of warfighting versus support, fires versus maneuver, and active versus reserves. Doing so successfully will help assure that the Army can remain a relevant and vital component of the nation's military power as it transforms in the years and decades to come."

 

12. Retooling U.S. Security Sector Assistance

warontherocks.com · by Stephen Tankel · October 28, 2020

It must be tied to strategy.  I think it remains critical for support to our friends, partners, and allies.  But I concur that a retooling is necessary.

Conclusion: "Security sector assistance was critical for building the web of U.S. alliances and partnerships that endures across the globe, as well as the military capacity of many countries in these regions. That was then. This is now. Today, the United States is no longer well-positioned to use security sector assistance to compete with China and Russia - especially in "gray zone" activities short of war - or to prepare for a potential conflict with either of them. Security sector assistance can be a vital tool of American statecraft. Using it effectively will require rethinking the types of assistance the United States provides, reorienting this assistance toward the regions that matter most, and better integrating it with other instruments of national power. Much of the heavy lifting will take place behind the scenes, in Congress and the interagency process, where reforms to the ways in which security assistance is prioritized, planned, and implemented are desperately needed."

 

13. Al Qaeda Feels Losses in Syria and Afghanistan but Stays Resilient

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · October 27, 2020

 

14. Esper, Pompeo drive US anti-China message in India visit

militarytimes.com · by Matthew Lee · October 27, 2020

Excerpts:

Pompeo has made no secret of the Trump administration's desire for India's help in the U.S. bid to isolate China. Since Trump became president, the U.S. and India have steadily ramped up their military relationship. When Trump visited India in February, the two sides concluded defense deals worth over $3 billion. Bilateral defense trade has increased from near zero in 2008 to $15 billion in 2019.

The talks in New Delhi on Tuesday follow a meeting that Pompeo had earlier this month in Tokyo with his counterparts from India, Japan and Australia, which together make up the four Indo-Pacific nations known as "the Quad." The Quad is seen as a counterweight to China, which critics say is flexing its military muscle throughout the region.

 

15. Emails reveal how Capt. Crozier's pleas for help from the Navy fell on deaf ears until his bombshell letter leaked

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

 

16. Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter launches the Integrated Operating Concept

gov.uk

The 20-page UK concept can be accessed at this link

 

17. Drop in insurgent attacks, coalition airstrikes leads to fewest civilian casualties in Afghanistan since 2012

militarytimes.com · by Rahim Faiez · October 27, 2020

 

18. U.S. overbearing meddling shows hegemonic bigotry

english.cctv.com · by zhangrui

From the Chinese propaganda outlets CCTV and Xinhua.

 

19. Background on rescinding a so-called "firewall rule"

usagm.gov · by Michael Pack · October 26, 2020

Here is Michael Pack's rationale for removing the "firewall rule" at USAGM.  I think it is missing some history and context which I am sure some experts will fill in.

 

20. Pushback As Trump Appointee Tries To Control VOA

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

 

21. Joint Statement on the third India-U.S. 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue

mea.gov.in· October 27, 2020

 

22. China shocked to discover the developed world views it in a negative light

japantimes.co.jp · by Frank Ching · October 27, 2020

And I am shocked gambling is taking place in Macau as well.

 

---------------

 

There is no such thing as hybrid war, just reasonably good campaign design."

- German GO at the Global SOF Conference:

 

"Perhaps the most important lesson from Game Theory is that in business, war, or any competitive enterprise, one must anticipate his opponent's strategy before developing one's own strategy."

- Geoffrey Goff

 

"Kind hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed: war is such a dangerous business that the mistakes which come from kindness are the very worst ... To introduce the principle of moderation into the theory of war itself would always lead to logical absurdity." 

- Clausewitz

10/28/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Wed, 10/28/2020 - 8:57am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Seoul's participation in 'Quad' may jeopardize regional security: S. Korean adviser

2. Cash-Strapped North Korea Orders Workers in China to Pay Into ‘Loyalty Fund’

3. Text messages replacing letters in North Korea, state media says

4. The Current Context and Projections for Promoting Human Rights in North Korea

5. S. Korea an example of successful, transparent handling of pandemic: Knapper

6. North Korea is going to be a major headache for whoever wins the US election

7. U.S. open to dialogue with N. Korea at any place, any time: U.S. diplomat

8. The South Korea - Japan Rift Plays Right into China’s Hands

9. S. Korea begins procedures to develop technologies for light aircraft carrier

10. U.S. Issues Warning to Businesses About North Korean Hackers

11. North Korean Women as New Economic Agents: Drivers and Consequences

12. U.S. Forces Korea aide calls into question OPCON plans

13. An A-10 Thunderbolt accidentally lost a munition somewhere in South Korea

14. Donju and ordinary people impacted by recent ban on mobile money

15. South Korean study finds Chinook upgrade more expensive than buying new helios

16. S. Korea to donate $10m to support coronavirus vaccine supplies to developing countries

17. South Korean Growth Shows Asia’s Stronger Recovery From Coronavirus

18. South Korea’s Moon Says Virus Has Been Contained

19. Complex geopolitical situation preventing inter-Korean relations from moving forward

20. Japanese diplomat arrives in Seoul for talks on wartime history, trade

21. DOD, FBI, DHS warn of active North Korean government-linked hacking operation - CyberScoop

22. Naenara 101: North Korea Debuts New Tablet Computer

 

1. Seoul's participation in 'Quad' may jeopardize regional security: S. Korean adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 28, 2020

I listened to his remarks at this event.  I have come to the conclusion that the only person more dangerous to the ROK/US alliance than Kim Jong-un is Moon Chung-in.  I know that is over the top hyperbole and will upset some of my Korean friends but the advice that he is giving to the Moon administration is simply dangerous and damaging to the alliance.  I think it is time think tanks stop giving him a platform that gives him the opportunity to express his ideas that are a danger to the alliance.   Yes he is a smooth talker and mixes his remarks with praise for the alliance and acknowledgement of its importance but all of his substantive comments do damage to the alliance, from his argument for the end of war declaration to make north Korean feel safe so it can negotiate denuclearization to withdrawal of US troops after a "peace regime " (there will not longer be justification for them per his Foreign Affairs article of April 2018) to his attack on the Quad and Korean participation in it.

 

2. Cash-Strapped North Korea Orders Workers in China to Pay Into ‘Loyalty Fund’

rfa.org· by Joonho Kim

Just another indication of the nature of the Kim family regime.

 

3. Text messages replacing letters in North Korea, state media says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim· October 27, 2020

Potentially important for PSYOP practitioners and information and influence activities.

 

4. The Current Context and Projections for Promoting Human Rights in North Korea

HRNK Insider · by David Hawk · October 27, 2020

A very long and comprehensive essay that discusses the conditions (and context) well beyond human rights.

 

5. S. Korea an example of successful, transparent handling of pandemic: Knapper

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 27, 2020

Secretary Axzar's comments were ignorant and ill-informed and unhelpful for the alliance.   It is good that Marc Knapper could diplomatically correct the record.

 

6. North Korea is going to be a major headache for whoever wins the US election

CNN · by Joshua Berlinger, CNN

Probably the most accurate headline in the media today.

 

7. U.S. open to dialogue with N. Korea at any place, any time: U.S. diplomat

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 27, 2020

Our policy and messaging has been consistent.  It is Kim Jong-un who has not participated as a serious negotiating partner and he has prevented substantive working level negotiations. There is no question that we are ready to talk any time.

 

8. The South Korea - Japan Rift Plays Right into China’s Hands

National Review Online · by Mitchell Blatt · October 26, 2020

This should be a BFO - a blinding flash of the obvious.

 

9. S. Korea begins procedures to develop technologies for light aircraft carrier

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · October 27, 2020

I would rather see the ROK invest in this capability than a nuclear powered submarine.

 

10. U.S. Issues Warning to Businesses About North Korean Hackers

Bloomberg · by Alyza Sebenius · October 27, 2020

There will be no let up in north Korean cyber activities. They will only grow.

 

11. North Korean Women as New Economic Agents: Drivers and Consequences

ISSUE & POLICY BRIEFS · by Sung Kyung Kim, October, 2020,

The 7 page report can be downloaded here.

This confirms much of what we have long believed - women have been key to survival since the Arduous March.  What is interesting about this report is that it discusses how women as economic agents can drive a societal transformation.  This also provides important information that will important during the unification process.

Abstract:

“This Issue Brief explores the changing social and economic role of women in North Korea since the so-called Arduous March of the 1990s. With the breakdown of the public food distribution system and deteriorating economic conditions, many women have been forced to become breadwinners for their families. While this new-found economic agency carries the seeds of societal transformation in a traditionally patriarchal system, women have borne a disproportionate burden in securing not only their families’ survival, but also arguably that of the North Korean economy.”

 

12. U.S. Forces Korea aide calls into question OPCON plans

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim· October 27, 2020

Who is this person Ham Ji-min, a USFK assistant chief of staff?  Is he a serving officer?  What he is proposing is one of the original plans for OPCON transition which was the dissolution of the ROK/us cfc into separate commands with the ROK warfighting command as the supported command and the US Command (which had been proposed to be named the Korean Command or KORCOM)  would be the supporting command.  ROK and US military leaders determined separate commands were not effective for deterrence and defense and for warfighting.

 

13. An A-10 Thunderbolt accidentally lost a munition somewhere in South Korea

taskandpurpose.com · by Jared Keller

Ooops

 

14. Donju and ordinary people impacted by recent ban on mobile money

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · October 28, 2020

Important point: "According to the source, people prefer to keep dollars, yuan or yen in a safe or in a box rather than at a bank and that they “widely distrust state banks or deposit boxes.”

This is an indicator of possible future resistance potential.

 

15. South Korean study finds Chinook upgrade more expensive than buying new helos

Defense News · by Brian Kim · October 27, 2020

 

16. S. Korea to donate $10m to support coronavirus vaccine supplies to developing countries

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · October 28, 2020

Korea - the only country to rise from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.

 

17. South Korean Growth Shows Asia’s Stronger Recovery From Coronavirus

WSJ · by Eun-Young Jeong

 

18. South Korea’s Moon Says Virus Has Been Contained

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · October 28, 2020

It is always worrisome when someone makes these kinds of claims.  I hope this is not premature.

 

19. Complex geopolitical situation preventing inter-Korean relations from moving forward

The Korea Times · October 28, 2020

 

20. Japanese diplomat arrives in Seoul for talks on wartime history, trade

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · October 28, 2020

I am not holding my breath for a positive step forward.

 

21. DOD, FBI, DHS warn of active North Korean government-linked hacking operation - CyberScoop

cyberscoop.com · by Shannon Vavra · October 27, 2020

 

22. Naenara 101: North Korea Debuts New Tablet Computer

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · October 27, 2020

And loaded with the top of the line spyware and surveillance software.

 

---------------------------

 

There is no such thing as hybrid war, just reasonably good campaign design."

- German GO at the Global SOF Conference:

 

“Perhaps the most important lesson from Game Theory is that in business, war, or any competitive enterprise, one must anticipate his opponent's strategy before developing one's own strategy.”

- Geoffrey Goff

 

"Kind hearted people might of course think there was some ingenious way to disarm or defeat an enemy without too much bloodshed, and might imagine this is the true goal of the art of war. Pleasant as it sounds, it is a fallacy that must be exposed: war is such a dangerous business that the mistakes which come from kindness are the very worst … To introduce the principle of moderation into the theory of war itself would always lead to logical absurdity.” 

- Clausewitz