Small Wars Journal

11/07/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Sat, 11/07/2020 - 11:09am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Pyonghattanite: Why I Left North Korea?

2. North Korea and Biological Weapons: Assessing the Evidence

3. Peeking under the shroud of North Korea's Monster Missile

4. Suspected North Korean hackers who targeted job applicants prove more ambitious than first believed

5. Unification minister urges N.K. not to heighten tensions to test incoming U.S. administration

6. Experts call for new U.S. gov't to craft viable approach to N.K. nukes

7. 'Biden fully ready to invest in N. Korea denuclearization'

8. South Korea Lost Track of North Korean Defector Who Crossed DMZ

9. S. Korea, China agree to cut fishing in EEZs

10.  S. Korea's new coronavirus cases reduced to double digits

11. Defense minister meets brother of S. Korean official killed by N. Korea

12. U.N. chief Guterres calls for intensified efforts to engage with N. Korea

13. How Did a Floating Australian "Party Resort" End Up in North Korea?

14. South Korea, Japan, US discuss Korean peninsula, US election & COVID in recent talks

 

1. Pyonghattanite: Why I Left North Korea?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5AoGDxLGuU

Another powerful video from our friend Seo Hyun Lee in which she describes the truly evil nature of the Kim Family Regime.  Please take 5 minutes to watch this.  We will never truly understand what it is like to live in north Korea but Ms. Lee can help us to have some knowledge about it.

 

2. North Korea and Biological Weapons: Assessing the Evidence

38north.org · by Elisa D. Harris

The 18 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.38north.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf/38-North-SR-2011-Elisa-Harris_North-Korea-Biological-Weapons-Assessment.pdf

Sigh.... this conclusion makes me think of Sun Tzu - "Never assume your enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

In the final analysis, North Korea may once have had and may still be pursuing a biological weapons capability. It is also possible that North Korea never moved beyond R&D on biological agents and the establishment of a biotechnical infrastructure that could support future BW production. It is also possible that the North Korean program never moved beyond planning or, whatever its previous nature, the program has essentially ended. But one thing seems clear-nothing in the official public record to date indicates that North Korea has an advanced BW program, notwithstanding media reports to the contrary.

This may be correct (it does provide enough waffling to be correct whether they have a bio program or had one and stopped it).  But after witnessing the global pandemics and the response to it, especially in countries like the US I suspect the revisionist and rogue powers of the world are re-evaluating the efficacy of developing deliberate bio weapons that might give them an advantage.  Perhaps they did not intend to initiate a global pandemic, but they are surely observing how military forces "fight through" the pandemic to discern lessons as to how forces may react to a biological attack.

 

3. Peeking under the shroud of North Korea's Monster Missile

armscontrolwonk.com · by Joshua Pollack

More intelligence analysis is required.  Joshua Pollack provides some useful insights and this important conclusion.  What are we going to do if the regime tests such an ICBM during the transition? (assuming Biden is elected).  I doubt we are going to do any bargaining for the reaffirmation of Kim Jong-un's 2018 pledge" during the transition period.

 

4. Suspected North Korean hackers who targeted job applicants prove more ambitious than first believed

cyberscoop.com · by Tim Starks · November 6, 2020

"Operation dream Job." When something seems too good to be true it probably is.  But I think we should never underestimate the capabilities of the north Koran all purpose sword.

 

5. Unification minister urges N.K. not to heighten tensions to test incoming U.S. administration

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 6, 2020

Somehow, I do not think the regime is going to heed anything from the Minister of Unification.

 

6. Experts call for new U.S. gov't to craft viable approach to N.K. nukes

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · November 7, 2020

I would ask both the South Korean and US governments to first conduct a thorough review of their strategic assumptions about the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.  I would love to see a joint review by senior ROK and US government officials and an alliance agreement on the fundamental assumptions the alliance upon which the alliance will base policy and strategy.

 

7. 'Biden fully ready to invest in N. Korea denuclearization'

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 6, 2020

I am still thinking about Vice President Biden's unprecedented Yonhap OpEd.  In what other country's media did he publish an OpEd?  

Here is a challenge to Vice President Biden’s national security team from our good friend Shin Beom-chul.  If he is elected, I hope they can be ready before July though I suppose he is anticipating a long confirmation process in a Republican majority Senate.  But I am sure there is a national security team working behind the scenes below the level of confirmation required positions that is conducting (and likely has conducted) assessments and policy and strategy review and development.

 

8. South Korea Lost Track of North Korean Defector Who Crossed DMZ

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

I do not know this for sure, but my sense is the ROK military is too dependent on technology and is not executing the basic "blocking and tackling" fundamentals of daylight reconnaissance and nighttime ambush patrols. I assume the DMZ south of the MDL is no longer saturated with patrols but rather only has sensors and troops in guard posts monitoring them as in the photo below the "patrols" take place along the South Barrier Fence of the DMZ.  I suspect the military is operating under politically imposed rules of engagement to not conduct aggressive patrols in the DMZ in the misguided belief that this will somehow have a positive effect on north Korea.  Instead it simply communicates a military weakness.   If you want to prevent infiltration and track infiltrators in the DMZ, you have to conduct aggressive patrolling.   There is no effective technological replacement though the technology can be a useful force multiplier.  Give me the enduring fundamentals.

 

9. S. Korea, China agree to cut fishing in EEZs

en.yna.co.kr · by 남광식 · November 6, 2020

???? reduction of 50 fishing boats?

Excerpt: "Under the agreement, which was reached during a meeting of fisheries officials, the number of boats allowed to fish in each other's EEZs will be reduced to 1,350 next year from this year's 1,400, according to South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries."

 

10. S. Korea's new coronavirus cases reduced to double digits

en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · November 7, 2020

It is all relative - 89 in South Korea - 121,000 in the US.  27,284 total cases in the ROK and 9+ million in the US.  Just saying.  Where you stand depends on where you sit.

And then there is this: "Of the 17 imported cases, 11 were foreigners and six were South Koreans. They came from the United States, Russia, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, France, Poland, Ukraine, Hungary, Algeria, Liberia and Ghana."  The company we keep.

 

11. Defense minister meets brother of S. Korean official killed by N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · November 6, 2020

This wound is going to fester in South Korea for some time to come and may never heal.

 

12. U.N. chief Guterres calls for intensified efforts to engage with N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · November 6, 2020

Unfortunately, the criteria for engagement with north Korea is concessions to the regime.  The Secretary General and the Presidents of South Korea and the US and most of the entire international community want to sincerely engage with north Korea to bring peace and stability and denuclearization to the peninsula.  Unfortunately, the regime will continue to conduct its political warfare with Juche characteristics.

 

13. How Did a Floating Australian "Party Resort" End Up in North Korea?

insidehook.com · by Tanner Garrity

Another truth is stranger than fiction account.

 

14. South Korea, Japan, US discuss Korean peninsula, US election & COVID in recent talks

republicworld.com – by Vishal Tiwari – 6 November 2020

Three different ways to handle COVID and three different (ongoing) outcomes:

The three sides discussed the COVID-19 pandemic situation in their respective countries and agreed to strengthen cooperation when it comes to vaccine development programmes. COVID-19 situation is particularly grim in the United States, where more than over 9 million have been infected and over 2,35,000 have died. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan have managed to control the pandemic, reporting just 27,000 and 1,05,000 cases respectively and fewer than 2,000 deaths when combined.

South Korea, Japan, US discuss Korean peninsula, US election & COVID in recent talks

 

"Never appeal to a man's better nature. He may not have one. Invoking his self-interest gives you more leverage."

- Robert A. Heinlein

 

Helmuth von Moltke: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy."

Bob Leonhard: "A plan that doesn't survive first contact with the enemy is called 'a bad plan.' You shouldn't be a planner. Fire your G2. Learn about decision matrices."

 

"A dying culture invariably exhibits personal rudeness. Bad manners. Lack of consideration for others in minor matters. A loss of politeness, of gentle manners, is more significant than is a riot."

- Robert A. Heinlein, Friday

11/6/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Fri, 11/06/2020 - 1:31pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Doctors begin to crack covid’s mysterious long-term effects

2. Misinformation 2020: what the data tells us about election-related falsehoods

3. International election observation mission - US elections

4. Defense Secretary Esper has prepped resignation letter, say officials

5.  Scaling the counterterrorism return on investment in support of great power competition

6. NGA adds small sat imagery to its unclassified collection

7. Record $1 billion worth of bitcoin linked to the Silk Road seized by U.S. government

8. Meet the AI that’s defeating automated fact checkers

9. U.S. Department of Energy launches program to enhance partnerships between government and critical infrastructure

10. The unthinkable: could Taiwan stand up to China alone?

11. The weight training puzzle: six-shooters, ‘six packs,’ or men with a sixth sense – what does SF need?

12. Mercenaries in the service of authoritarian states

13. Make good choices! National security transitions and the policy and process decisions

14. One day in America: more than 121,000 coronavirus cases

15. Our strategic military investment in freely associated states of the Pacific

16. The debate over allies: makers or takers of US military might?

17. Nasal spray prevents covid infection in ferrets, study finds

18. Achieving information dominance: what we can learn from “SOF effects cells”

19. Will the Army change the size of the infantry squad? A new study is looking at it.

20. David Petraeus on irregular warfare and countering violent extremism

21. National Army museum opening on Veterans Day tells the US soldier’s story from 1600s to today

 

1. Doctors begin to crack covid’s mysterious long-term effects

Wall Street Journal · Sarah Toy, Sumathi Reddy, & Daniela Hernandez · November 1, 2020

Very troubling for all of us.

 

2. Misinformation 2020: what the data tells us about election-related falsehoods

Defense One · Peter W. Singer · November 5, 2020

Excellent analysis and data from Zignal Labs.

 

3. International Election Observation Mission - US Elections

OSCE · November 3, 2020

 

4. Defense Secretary Esper has prepped resignation letter, say officials

NBC News · Courney Kube & Carol E. Lee · November 5, 2020

 

5. Scaling the counterterrorism return on investment in support of great power competition

Lawfare · Doowan Lee & DeVan Shannon · November 5, 2020

We should be talking about foreign internal defense rather than security force assistance. FID is a more comprehensive mission than SFA. It is the superior mission. Also, although FID is associated with SOF (and is a Title 10 SOF activity), it is not SOF exclusive and, by definition, it is joint and interagency. Too often we say SFA when we really mean FID.

Just saying.

foreign internal defense — Participation by civilian agencies and military forces of a

government or international organizations in any of the programs and activities

undertaken by a host nation government to free and protect its society from subversion,

lawlessness, insurgency, terrorism, and other threats to its security. Also called FID.

(JP 3-22)

security force assistance — The Department of Defense activities that support the

development of the capacity and capability of foreign security forces and their

supporting institutions. Also called SFA. (JP 3-20)

 

6. NGA adds small sat imagery to its unclassified collection

C4ISR Net · Nathan Strout · November 5, 2020

 

7. Record $1 billion worth of bitcoin linked to the Silk Road seized by U.S. government

CNBC · Kate Rooney · November 5, 2020

 

8. Meet the AI that’s defeating automated fact checkers

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · November 5, 2020

 

9. U.S. Department of Energy launches program to enhance partnerships between government and critical infrastructure

US Department of Energy · November 5, 2020

An important initiative of FDD's Center for Cyber and Technology Innovation (CCTI) and DOE

 

10. The unthinkable: could Taiwan stand up to China alone?

National Interest · Daniel L. Davis · November 5, 2020

I am all for helping Taiwan bolster its independent warfighting capabilities. But the argument that we should not come to the defense of Taiwan undermines deterrence. I also think Taiwan will be hard pressed to develop, buy, and deploy sufficient capabilities. This is simply an argument to cut away Taiwan. Now, of course we could decide to do that if the unthinkable happened, but by making recommendations such as the one in this article we reduce or even eliminate any semblance of deterrence. 

 

11. The weight training puzzle: six-shooters, ‘six packs,’ or men with a sixth sense – what does SF need?

Small Wars Journal  · Anna Simons · November 5, 2020

An anthropological analysis of SOF.

 

12. Mercenaries in the service of authoritarian states

CSS · Julia Friedrich & Niklas Masuhr · November 2020

 

13. Make good choices! National security transitions and the policy and process decisions

War On the Rocks · Loren DeJonge Schulman & Alex Tippett · November 6, 2020

 

14. One day in America: more than 121,000 coronavirus cases

New York Times · Julie Bosman · November 6, 2020

We cannot take our eye off the COVD-19 ball. None of the cable news shows or networks are addressing this except perhaps as asides. This number seems unfathomable.

 

15. Our strategic military investment in freely associated states of the Pacific

Daily Signal · Walter Lohman · November 5, 2020

This could turn out to be a key strategic development of our INDOPACIFIC strategy.

 

16. The debate over allies: makers or takers of US military might?

Washington Examiner · Jamie McIntyre · November 6, 2020

That is fundamentally the wrong question. We should be framing the question in terms of our interests and grand strategy. I would argue our alliance structure is key to our strategic flexibility and not only the ability to project US power but also to generate coalition power when necessary. And it may make the most vital contribution to deterrence and helps us to compete effectively in great power competition.

 

17. Nasal spray prevents covid infection in ferrets, study finds

New York Times · Donald G. McNeil Jr. · November 5, 2020

Whew! Save the ferrets. But seriously, this could be a huge game changer if it works on humans, though I am not going to get my hopes up yet.

 

18. Achieving information dominance: what we can learn from “SOF effects cells”

Modern War Institute · Ashely Franz Holzmann et al. · November 6, 2020

 

19. Will the Army change the size of the infantry squad? A new study is looking at it.

Army Times · Todd South · November 5, 2020

An important and likely controversial decision (and even emotional for some).

 

20. David Petraeus on irregular warfare and countering violent extremism

Modern War Institute · Kyle Atwell & Shawna Sinnott · November 6, 2020

 

21. National Army museum opening on Veterans Day tells the US soldier’s story from 1600s to today

Stars & Stripes · Corey Dickstein · November 5, 2020

This museum is within walking distance from my house. I look forward to the opening.

 

"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."

-Senator Carl Schurz (1829–1906)

“What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.”

- Lord Melbourne (1779-1848)

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it." 

- Mark Twain

11/6/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Fri, 11/06/2020 - 12:56pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Blue House says it's ready for any U.S. eventuality

2. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to have gained weight (again)

3. Sources: N. Korea is hiding the real number of suspected COVID-19 cases

4. New virus cases above 100 for 3rd day on chains of cluster infections

5. Korea Faces decision on China because of the Quad

6. North Korea tells its people to stop smoking. Can Kim Jong-un quit, too?

7. Biden could restore broken alliance with Korea

8. 7 incredibly basic things North Korea doesn't allow its women to do

9. North Korea increases Workers' Party control over markets

10. 'Biden may order review of policy on North Korea'

11. Seoul's mediator role to become more important

12. South's top national security official urges U.S. to resume talks with North

13. Moon congratulates CFC on 42nd founding anniversary

14. Will Biden win turn N. Korea policy back to square one?

15. Panel: Biden should reach agreement over Korean Peninsula burden-sharing talks if elected

16. South Korea ready to work with U.S. president, Trump or Biden

17. Border reopening rumors follow North Korean repatriation of stranded Chinese

18. Falling N. Korean won - dollar exchange rate causes headaches among dollar holders

 

1. Blue House says it's ready for any U.S. eventuality

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · November 5, 2020

Koreans are watching the news as intently as Americans. As I watch Korean news, it is amazing to see the reporting on how the ruling and opposition parties are preparing. We saw Ban Ki Moon speak to the opposition party about his relationship with Biden. Ruling and opposition party delegations are preparing to visit the US on about November 16th. As previously reported and in the article below, Foreign Minister Kang is flying to the US this weekend for a visit next week. 

 

2. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to have gained weight (again)

Vice · Junhyup Kwon · November 5, 2020

Why is this important? Because we should be ready to answer the question of: if we learn today that Kim Jong-Un is dead, what actions are we prepared to take immediately to ensure security of the ROK and US interests and to possibly seize the initiative with an emerging leadership?

 

3. Sources: N. Korea is hiding the real number of suspected COVID-19 cases

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 5, 2020

And the people do not trust the regime either. That is an important data point.

 

4. New virus cases above 100 for 3rd day on chains of cluster infections

Yonhap News Agency · colin@yna.co.kr · November 6, 2020

 

5. Korea Faces decision on China because of the Quad

Peninsula · Terrence Matsuo · November 5, 2020

My comments on Korea and the Quad below.

 

6. North Korea tells its people to stop smoking. Can Kim Jong-un quit, too?

New York Times · Choe Sang-Hun · November 5, 2020

If Biden is elected, perhaps he should send Kim an ice breaker gift? It could be one of those smoking cessation programs.

 

7. Biden could restore broken alliance with Korea

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · November 5, 2020

Is the Korean view that the alliance is broken?

They would be mistaken to think that if he is elected, he will immediately solve all these issues. Sure, he might do something quickly about the SMA stalemate. But on issues such as OPCON transition, he will be listening to his national security team and senior military leaders and will do what is right for the alliance and the security of the ROK and US interests.

 

8. 7 incredibly basic things North Korea doesn't allow its women to do

Hauterfly · Jinal Bhatt · November 5, 2020

I know this is accurate, but it is still unbelievable whenever I read these accounts about how the Korean people living in the North are so oppressed. De Oppresso Liber.

 

9. North Korea increases Workers' Party control over markets

Daily NK · Kim Yoo Jin · November 6, 2020

This is what the regime wants, but this will also severely hinder the now decades old "safety valve" for the population and what has allowed them to survive since the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996 and the failure of the public distribution system. What the party controls, the party eventually destroys because of the implementation of policies that are doomed to fail because they are only focused on supporting the regime and not based in any reasonable economic principles.

 

10. 'Biden may order review of policy on North Korea'

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · November 5, 2020

I imagine the Korean experts on his national security team have already conducted one or at least have begun one. And this should be no surprise.

Regardless of who wins the election, we will continue to recommend this strategy that is based on new assumptions, is derived from a holistic application across the instruments of national power, and takes a long term view to include solving the "Korea question."

 

11. Seoul's mediator role to become more important

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · November 5, 2020

With all due respect, I think this is highly unlikely. Kim Jong-Un does not accept President Moon as a mediator. But this is part of the Moon Administration's desire to double down on its engagement initiatives, end of war declaration, and pursuit of "peace at any cost" – even if it weakens the alliance and puts the security of the ROK at risk, which it is very likely to do.

 

12. South's top national security official urges U.S. to resume talks with North

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Ser Myo-Ja · November 6, 2020

I know I sound like a broken record, but the US has been ready, willing, and able to conduct substantive working talks since Singapore in June 2018. It is Kim Jong-Un who has prevented such talks from taking place.

 

13. Moon congratulates CFC on 42nd founding anniversary

Yonhap News Agency · scaaet@yna.co.kr · November 6, 2020

The binational command means it belongs equally to both the ROK and US. It is not a US command. And when the OPCON transition process is complete, OPCON will not transfer from Washington to Seoul. It will have a ROK General Officer in command and will answer to the Military Committee, which is made up of representatives and members of both nations' national command and military authorities. And the Korean general will say, just as every commander of the ROK/US CFC has said, that he works equally for both Presidents.

 

14. Will Biden win turn N. Korea policy back to square one?

Chosun Ilbo · November 6, 2020

No. If Biden is elected, he is going to be able to have a more flexible policy and strategy based on the work President Trump has done with his unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.  He will of course implement his one policy and strategy, but it is unlikely he will return to the so-called "strategic patience" of the Obama administration (which was not the name of the policy but the one the press and the pundits gave it). 

 

15. Panel: Biden Should Reach Agreement Over Korean Peninsula Burden-Sharing Talks if Elected

USNI News · John Grady · November 6, 2020

Whoever is elected must resolve the SMA stalemate. This has gone on too long. It is harming the alliance. We must not forget that there can be no success on the Korean peninsula without the foundation of a strong, "rock-solid" ROK/US alliance (as well as a strong Japan-US alliance and, ideally, adequate ROK-Japan cooperation on security issues).

 

16. South Korea Ready to Work With U.S. President, Trump or Biden

National Interest · Stephen Silver · November 6, 2020

Cynically, I ask: what choice does it have?

 

17. Border reopening rumors follow North Korean repatriation of stranded Chinese

Radio Free Asia · Jeong Kim et al. · November 4, 2020

Does this mean COVID-19 is contained? Has there really been no outbreak? Or is the economy suffering so badly that North Korea must reopen the border?

 

18. Falling N. Korean won – dollar exchange rate causes headaches among dollar holders

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 6, 2020

The regime wants to reduce and eventually eliminate the use of foreign currency. But it is foreign currency that has really allowed the 400+ nascent markets to flourish. This could eventually come back to harm the regime. But the regime's domestic strategy appears to use COVID 19 to crack down on all the areas that have provided the Korean people in the North with resilience since the Arduous March. The regime has long been afraid of losing control of the people and it may view COVID 19 as a gift to be able to crack down on the people and their livelihoods. We must not ever forget that Kim fears the Korean people more than he fears the US.

 

"My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right."

-Senator Carl Schurz (1829–1906)

“What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.”

- Lord Melbourne (1779-1848)

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it." 

- Mark Twain

11/3/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Tue, 11/03/2020 - 1:27pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. U.S. Cyber Command expands operations to hunt hackers from Russia, Iran and China

2. Palau makes US a military offer it shouldn’t refuse

3.  In hunt for virus source, W.H.O. let China take charge

4.  Vladimir Marugov murder: Russian 'Sausage King' killed in sauna with a crossbow

5. John Ivison: report on 'values war' with China deserves close look from Canadian policy-makers

6. China’s ‘secret weapon’ against COVID-19 won’t work for post-pandemic economic recovery

7. Buy American earmarks slip in: defense committees must act

8.  Air Force purchase of Chinese drones spurs security concerns

9. Exploding the myth of Huawei’s 5G security risk

10. 'Rebalancing of power': next president to face increasing complex geopolitical puzzle

11. Speak softly and conceal a big stick: a diplomat’s strategy for competing with China

12. Intel community investing in biothreat detection tool

13. U.S.-backed ‘Quad’ starts joint naval exercises in India waters

14. Was the secret RQ-180 stealth drone really photographed over the Mojave Desert?

15. But what does “rules-based order” mean?

16. Intelligence isn’t just for government anymore

17. United States: online views of the upcoming presidential election & possible violence

18. US elections are safer from foreign interference, but gaps remain

19. How can the United States move toward gender-neutral special forces?

20. The importance of teaching civic responsibility in America

21. Getting the fait accompli problem right in U.S. strategy

22. Missionaries from a strange land: veterans and the society that sends them

 

1. U.S. Cyber Command expands operations to hunt hackers from Russia, Iran and China

New York Times · Julian E. Barnes · November 2, 2020

Hunt them down and then......?

 

2. Palau makes US a military offer it shouldn’t refuse

Asia Times · Grant Newsham · November 2, 2020

I wonder in 10 to 20 years how we and the citizens of Palau will look back on this.

 

3. In hunt for virus source, W.H.O. let China take charge

New York Times · Selam Gebrekidan et al. · November 2, 2020

The WHO ... compromised?  I hope we "won't get fooled again."

 

4. Vladimir Marugov murder: Russian 'Sausage King' killed in sauna with a crossbow

BBC · November 2, 2020

Truth is stranger than fiction. Sausage king? Sauna? Crossbow? 

 

5. John Ivison: report on 'values war' with China deserves close look from Canadian policy-makers

National Post · John Ivison · November 2, 2020

Obviously, a Canadian view.

 

6. China’s ‘secret weapon’ against COVID-19 won’t work for post-pandemic economic recovery

Diplomat · Zhuoran Li · October 30, 2020

 

7. Buy American earmarks slip in: defense committees must act

Breaking Defense · Bill Greenwalt · October 28, 2020

 

8. Air Force purchase of Chinese drones spurs security concerns

Wall Street Journal · Brett Forrest & Gordon Lubold · November 2, 2020

I am told the risks are understood and mitigated. But not a good look.

 

9. Exploding the myth of Huawei’s 5G security risk

Asia Times · Michael MacDonald · November 2, 2020

Myth???

It seems like Asia Times is becoming a mouthpiece for the CCP. Of course, we should not expect Mr. McDonald to write anything criticizing Huawei since he is their chief digital officer.

 

10. 'Rebalancing of power': next president to face increasing complex geopolitical puzzle

Washington Times · Ben Wolfgang · November 2, 2020

But interestingly this election has not been about foreign policy and national security (external) to any great extent.

 

11. Speak softly and conceal a big stick: a diplomat’s strategy for competing with China

Strategy Bridge · George Bartle · November 3, 2020

From a serving Foreign Service Officer.

 

12. Intel community investing in biothreat detection tool

National Defense · Mandy Mayfield · November 2, 2020

I love the creativity of acronyms.

 

13. U.S.-backed ‘Quad’ starts joint naval exercises in India waters

Bloomberg · Sudhi Ranjan Sen · November 3, 2020

 

14. Was the secret RQ-180 stealth drone really photographed over the Mojave Desert?

Drive · Tyler Rogoway · November 2, 2020

 

15. But what does “rules-based order” mean?

Interpreter · Ben Scott · November 2, 2020

An important question. A view from Australia.

 

16. Intelligence isn’t just for government anymore

Foreign Affairs · Amy Zegart · November 2, 2020

 

17. United States: online views of the upcoming presidential election & possible violence

Babel Beacon · McDaniel Wicker · October 31, 2020

 

18. US elections are safer from foreign interference, but gaps remain

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · November 2, 2020

 

19. How can the United States move toward gender-neutral special forces?

Marine Corps University · Mariah Loukou

The PDF can be downloaded here.

 

20. The importance of teaching civic responsibility in America

RAND · Laura S. Hamilton · October 29, 2020

The most important subject that should be taught in all schools (but also by parents as well).

 

21. Getting the fait accompli problem right in U.S. strategy

War On the Rocks · Michael Kofman · November 3, 2020

 

22. Missionaries from a strange land: veterans and the society that sends them

War On the Rocks · Kori Schake & Aine Josephine Tyrrell · November 3, 2020

 

"The fact that a man is to vote forces him to think.”

- John Jay Chapman

“The vote is precious. It is the most powerful non-violent tool we have in a democratic society, and we must use it.”

 - John Lewis

“The ballot is stronger than the bullet.”

- Abraham Lincoln

11/3/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Tue, 11/03/2020 - 12:35pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. N. Korea says no confirmed cases of coronavirus: WHO

2. North Korean covid victims 'left to starve in secret quarantine camps'

3.  Pence cartoon: "spooky"

4. New tools make North Korea's Kimsuky group more dangerous

5. Natural disaster preparedness in North Korea or lack thereof

6. Donald Trump's North Korea strategy must survive

7. Kim Yo Jong angered by UN criticism of the North's human rights situation

8. N. Korean officials try to talk people out of selling information for money

9. U.S. warns against dealing in N. Korean art

10. China supports end-of-war pact, says Beijing envoy

11. North Korea attempted to hack into COVID-19 vaccine developers data

12. South Korean base employees face new furlough worries over funding stalemate

13. North Korea rear commanders promoted, analyst says

14. [Column] S. Korea should carefully consider its own national interest regarding alliance with the US

15. US Asia allies Japan, South Korea build better China ties despite concerns

16. The quadruple threat: North Korea, China, Pakistan and Iran

17. Philippines gets $100-M loan from South Korea for COVID-19 response

 

1. N. Korea says no confirmed cases of coronavirus: WHO

Yonhap News Agency · julesyi@yna.co.kr · November 3, 2020

It is more important that the regime control the information than the actual virus.

I wonder what "intensified surveillance" is like in a state with already the highest level of surveillance of almost any country in the world.

 

2. North Korean Covid victims ‘left to starve in secret quarantine camps’

U.S. Sun · Debbie White · November 2, 2020

Of course, these reports are questionable.

Then again, I guess if you make anyone with COVID "quarantine" in secret camps until they starve to death, you do not have to report them as ever having COVID.

 

3. Pence cartoon: "spooky"

Daily NK · Gregory Pence · October 30, 2020

There is not much that can give us something to chuckle about when it comes to North Korea. But Gregory Pence tries to give us some humor.

 

4. New tools make North Korea's Kimsuky group more dangerous

Dark Reading · Jai Vijayan · November 2, 2020

More on north Korea's all-purpose sword.

I do love all the names.

 

5. Natural disaster preparedness in North Korea or lack thereof

HRNK Insider · Kim Myong & Greg Scarlatoiu · November 2, 2020

Emphasis on lack thereof.

 

6. Donald Trump's North Korea strategy must survive

National Interest · Doug Bandow · November 2, 2020

Praise from Doug Bandow.

 

7. Kim Yo Jong angered by UN criticism of the North’s human rights situation

Daily NK · Rob Lauler · November 3, 2020

Kim Yo Jong has also been sanctioned by the US for her complicity in human rights abuses.  "Admit nothing. Deny everything, Make counter accusations."

 

8. N. Korean officials try to talk people out of selling information for money

Daily NK · Lee Chae Un · November 3, 2020

Information is valuable and profitable. Of course, for those buying information it makes such information suspect, especially if more sensational information brings more money. But the key point is this is another attempt at population and resource control measures from the regime to control (and continue to oppress) the Korean people living in the North.

 

9. U.S. warns against dealing in N. Korean art

Chosun Ilbo · Roh Suk-jo · November 3, 2020

 

10. China supports end-of-war pact, says Beijing envoy

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim & Esther Chung · November 3, 2020

Of course, China does, because it is a step toward the major objective of both China and North Korea: to get the US forces off the Korean peninsula despite their rhetoric to the contrary.

 

11. North Korea attempted to hack into COVID-19 vaccine developers data

Korea Times · Park Han-sol · November 3, 2020

This article cites the excellent work of my colleague, Mathew Ha.

 

12. South Korean base employees face new furlough worries over funding stalemate

Stars & Stripes · Kim Gamel · November 2, 2020

There are going to be long term problems for USFK. Even after we get this resolved, the effects of the furloughs are going to undermine confidence and trust among Korean national employees.

 

13. North Korea rear commanders promoted, analyst says

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · November 2, 2020

It is probably a translation issue, but the divisions noted below are designated corps except the 105th is a brigade and not a division (unless it has been increased to a division size unit, but I have not seen any reports of that).

 

14. [Column] S. Korea should carefully consider its own national interest regarding alliance with the US

Hankyoreh · Moon Chung-in · November 2, 2020

I agree that South Korea must consider its interest and I agree with the Korean Ambassador Lee and his remarks that have been criticized (wrongly in my view). However, I think Ambassador Lee's intent in his comments was to show the ROK/US alliance is stronger when South Korean assesses its interests rather than just maintaining the status quo of a 7 decades old alliance. I believe he truly intended to mean that a continual assessment of interests will reveal that it is a vital national interest for South Korea to have a strong ROK/US alliance. Moon Chung-in, despite his rhetoric, does not have the same view of the alliance.

I also disagree with the Moon Chung-in about China. It has already demonstrated its willingness to conduct economic warfare with the ROK. South Korea should not allow itself to be an economic "hostage" to China, but, if you follow Moon's reasoning, the South will always be held hostage. It must assess its interests and an objective assessment will reveal how South Korean should pursue alliances.

Remember Moon Chung-in is not a friend of the ROK/US alliance. Take his comments with a grain of salt, but we must keep in mind he is an advisor to President Moon.

 

15. US Asia allies Japan, South Korea build better China ties despite concerns

Newsweek · Tom O’Connor · November 2, 2020

The ROK and Japan must manage their relations with China. We must respect that. I believe they can (and must) do that without harming their alliance with the US.

 

16. The quadruple threat: North Korea, China, Pakistan and Iran

Israel National News · Dany Shoham · November 2, 2020

An interesting grouping of the threats from an Israeli perspective.

 

17. Philippines gets $100-M loan from South Korea for COVID-19 response

ABS CBN News · November 2, 2020

Again, South Korea is the only country that has moved from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.

 

"The fact that a man is to vote forces him to think.”

- John Jay Chapman

“The vote is precious. It is the most powerful non-violent tool we have in a democratic society, and we must use it.”

 - John Lewis

“The ballot is stronger than the bullet.”

- Abraham Lincoln

11/2/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Mon, 11/02/2020 - 1:13pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

 

My editorial comment for the election tomorrow.

For those considering violence following the election:

Whether on the radical or extreme left or the radical or extreme right, anyone who seeks to overthrow our government or who espouses unsanctioned violence to protect it is wrong. We should not make this a left versus right conflict, but we should be united in opposing both those who seek to destroy our federal democratic republic with force and violence as well as those who think they can use unsanctioned force to defend our republic outside of the law.

Those of us who believe in supporting and defending the Constitution of the United States know that Democrats, Republicans, and Independents believe in that common cause, even if we have different world views and views of how our government should function. To say or believe otherwise marks such a person as one on the extreme left or extreme right - not the traditional left or right. We need to make the distinction and call out the extremes - and not attack those who simply have different opinions and views than our own. We should welcome and applaud criticism and protest of all types from both sides of the traditional left and tight (but not the extremes). However, once the extremes call for violence against our nation, or against an opposing side, they must be stopped and the full force of the law must be brought to bear on them.

For those considering the use of violence from the extreme left or extreme right, I would like to know what effects you are seeking to achieve? What is your theory of “victory” or winning through the use of violence? What is your long-term strategy and what is your campaign plan to achieve your objectives?

One last point. I think conflict occurs when the paradoxical trinity gets out of alignment - passion, reason, and chance (or as Clausewitz wrote, primordial violence, hatred, and enmity, which are to be regarded as a blind natural force; … chance and probability within which the creative spirit is free to roam; and of its element of subordination, as an instrument of policy, which it subject to reason alone.) When passion dominates and is not constrained by reason, bad things can happen in the province of chance – the outcomes are unforeseen.

The fundamental question for all of us is: do we want this great American experiment to continue regardless of the outcome of the election?

 

1. Pentagon draw-down at U.S. embassies prompts concern about ceding field to global rivals

2. DoD canceled its diversity training audit to comply with new White House rules

3. The Pentagon is building a school to teach the force how to defeat drones

4. More veterans running for office as numbers dwindle in Congress

5. Cyber warriors are getting new teammates: information operators

6. Coronavirus hits brigade at NTC, as home post deals with surge in cases

7. Business in discarded US military goods is booming as Kandahar base empties out

8. US military battles silent enemy of Covid within its ranks

9. Covert, coercive, and corrupting: countering the Chinese Communist Party's malign influence in free societies

10. Beijing using political warfare to subvert free societies worldwide, State Department official warns

11. Senkaku Islands: could the U.S. military and Japan really land troops?

12. The terrorist threat from the fractured far right

13. Three-quarters of Americans concerned about post-election violence: poll

14. Election Day becomes doomsday scenario for militia groups

15. Trump COVID adviser Scott Atlas apologizes for appearing on Russian state TV

16. Deadly Taliban attack probably used drone, a worrisome shift

17. An assessment of the American national interest in Sino-American competition

18. Great power conflict has arrived, but asymmetric warfare isn’t going anywhere

19. Taiwan achieves record 200 days with no local coronavirus cases

20. Marines will help fight submarines

21. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the U.S. military

22. Let me finish: how to stop interrupting ... and change the world

 

1. Pentagon draw-down at U.S. embassies prompts concern about ceding field to global rivals

Wall Street Journal · Warren P. Strobel & Gordon Lubold · November 1, 2020

Are we being shortsighted? The crazy thing about this issue is China is operating globally and we have to compete globally, in every region. This is similar to the arguments I have heard that SOF has to shift more assets to Asia to compete with China. More than ever, we need them in Africa and Europe and the Middle East and Latin America. I wonder if this is a reflection of our propensity to prioritize geographic regions and think we have to physically shift resources to a specific region. What we really need to make sure of is that our military personnel (and, of course, diplomats, USAID professionals, and the intelligence community as well) around the world have a sufficient understanding of how China is competing with the US in the region and countries in which they are operating.

 

2. DoD canceled its diversity training audit to comply with new White House rules

Military Times · Meghann Myers · October 30, 2020

 

3. The Pentagon is building a school to teach the force how to defeat drones

Defense News · Jen Judson · November 1, 2020

Why is this not air defense? Or have we so neglected air defense that we cannot adapt to defend against unmanned aerial systems (drones).

 

4. More veterans running for office as numbers dwindle in Congress

Hill · Ellen Mitchell · November 1, 2020

 

5. Cyber warriors are getting new teammates: information operators

C4ISR Net · Mark Pomerleau · October 30, 2020

Recognition that cyber is not just 1s and 0s and only digital communications. It communicates information to humans and influences human behavior. Perhaps this is the  merger of art and science.

I hope these information operators include PSYOP practitioners.

 

6. Coronavirus hits brigade at NTC, as home post deals with surge in cases

Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · October 30, 2020

We have to fight through the pandemic. While we have to protect the force, we must also treat the pandemics effects on the military as a rehearsal for biological warfare. Hopefully, we will learn important lessons.

 

7. Business in discarded US military goods is booming as Kandahar base empties out

Stars & Stripes · J.P. Lawrence · November 1, 2020

One man's junk is another man's treasure. This is a common occurrence wherever the US military is deployed. And, of course, the market increases when US forces are preparing to leave.

 

8. US military battles silent enemy of Covid within its ranks

Financial Times · Katrina Manson · November 2, 2020

Again, we must fight through the pandemic and learn lessons for future biological warfare defense.

 

9. Covert, coercive, and corrupting: countering the Chinese Communist Party's malign influence in free societies

US Department of State · David Stilwell · October 30, 2020

Important remarks from David Stilwell. I am surprised this has not received more media attention.

 

10. Beijing using political warfare to subvert free societies worldwide, State Department official warns

Epoch Times · Cathy He · October 31, 2020

Of course, the very anti-CCP Epoch Times picked up on David Stilwell's remarks. But I applaud David Stilwell's use of political warfare and the Epoch Times' choice on the use of political warfare to describe his remarks in its headline.

 

11. Senkaku Islands: could the U.S. military and Japan really land troops?

National Interest · James Holmes · November 1, 2020

 

12. The terrorist threat from the fractured far right

Lawfare · Bruce Hoffman & Jacob Ware · November 1, 2020

Emphasis on far right. Not the traditional right or the left or traditional conservatives or liberals. We are talking about far right (and, in other analyses, far left) extremists. We should not paint the traditional conservatives and liberals with the broad brush of the far right and left extremists.

 

13. Three-quarters of Americans concerned about post-election violence: poll

Fox News · Adam Shaw · October 31, 2020

Reporting from Fox News.

 

14. Election Day becomes doomsday scenario for militia groups

Politico · Tina Nguyen · November 1, 2020

 

15. Trump COVID adviser Scott Atlas apologizes for appearing on Russian state TV

Axios · Maria Arias · November 1, 2020

Sigh... What was this guy thinking? He did not know this? What about the White House Communications Office? They allowed him to do this interview?

 

16. Deadly Taliban attack probably used drone, a worrisome shift

New York Times · Thomas Gibbons-Neff · November 1, 2020

Quite an advance in capability. But it should not be unexpected.

 

17. An assessment of the American national interest in Sino-American competition

Divergent Options · Brandon Patterson · November 2, 2020

We must understand our interests (and understand fear, honor, and interest as well).

 

18. Great power conflict has arrived, but asymmetric warfare isn’t going anywhere

National Interest · Kris Osborn · November 1, 2020

Asymmetric warfare is an inherent part of all conflict. It is not new, has always been here, and certainly is not going away.

 

19. Taiwan achieves record 200 days with no local coronavirus cases

Time · Cindy Wang & Samson Ellis · October 29, 2020

Another success story from which we should learn. Taiwan was able to learn from the past experience, adapt, and anticipate the future pandemic.

 

20. Marines will help fight submarines

USNI · General David Berger · November 2020

 

21. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the U.S. military

War On the Rocks · Emma Moore · November 2, 2020

 

22. Let me finish: how to stop interrupting … and change the world

Guardian · Nancy Kline · October 24, 2020

Seems like such a simple concept. We are all guilty and we must all do better.

 

“Suffrage is the pivotal right."

-Susan B. Anthony

"The vote is a power, a weapon of offense and defense, a prayer."

- Carrie Chapman Catt

"In reality, there is no such thing as not voting: you either vote by voting, or you vote by staying home and tacitly doubling the value of some Diehard's vote."

- David Foster Wallace