News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. North Korea’s elite defectors
2. North Korea media decries obsolete practices after mass games
3. Military says annual defense drill is defensive in nature amid N.K. criticism
4. North Korea-backed spy group poses as reporters in spearphishing attacks, feds warn
5. North Korea says shooting death of South Korean man was self-defensive measure
6. Kim Jong Un’s mystery woman sparks debate as sister, wife remain missing
7. Why the New York Times is moving its hub to Seoul
8. S. Korea may find itself on 'front line of new Cold War' if it joins U.S.-led, anti-China alliance: adviser
9. "Neo-Cold War" in East Asia to be disaster to region: S. Korean presidential adviser - Xinhua
10. The big stare-down: Kim Jong-un awaits outcome of US election
11. Peace on Korean Peninsula ultimate goal of U.S. regardless of election outcome: Ambassador Lee
12. North Korea’s big nuke doesn’t scare the 100th Missile Defense Brigade
13. Next president will face a nuclear-armed Korea increasingly unwilling to disarm
14. Viewing North Korea through the wrong lens
15. Pyongyang post-party anniversary: shifts in construction priorities
16. N. Korea locks down areas of border after Storm Corps trooper kills superior
17. U.S. Ambassador made honorary Seoul citizen
18. Sinuiju officials intensify bribe demands amid wider economic malaise
19. Special contribution by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden
1. North Korea’s Elite Defectors
Diplomat · Mitch Shin · October 29, 2020
Yes, North Korea is a class system for sure. It is good to see Robert Collins’s work on Songbun with 51 classes in North Korean Society referenced in this article (Marked For Life: Songbun North Korea's Social Classification System).
A "Socialist Workers Paradise" for sure.
But this is the buried lede: I have still not seen anything confirming that Free Jeoson was behind the defection of Jo Song Gil and his wife.
2. North Korea media decries obsolete practices after mass games
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 28, 2020
This is an interesting development. Perhaps Kim Jong-Un has something new in mind for national competitiveness? The mass games just do not seem to make him happy. Perhaps it is because no other country in the world does anything comparable. I wonder what he has in mind to show off the greatness of the regime.
3. Military says annual defense drill is defensive in nature amid N.K. criticism
Yonhap News Agency · scaaet@yna.co.kr · October 29, 2020
Don't back down. I am glad to see South Korea conducting exercises and training in spite of North Korean criticism. But it should not be "defensive" about conducting defensive exercises. It has every right to train to defend its country.
4. North Korea-backed spy group poses as reporters in spearphishing attacks, feds warn
Threat Post · Tara Seals · October 28, 2020
When I sent out the government warning from CISA/CERT it came back as blocked by the server for some of the recipients.
Perhaps this message about the warning will go through.
Here is the key information from the warning (the link to the CERT/CISA warning).
A lot of data in this warning for all the cyber experts. But here is the public service announcement for all Korea watchers who routinely get press inquiries.
This is very important for all of us to understand and be aware of.
5. North Korea says shooting death of South Korean man was self-defensive measure
Reuters · Hyonhee Shin · October 29, 2020
Admit nothing; deny everything; make counter accusations. Or just spin the events whichever way that suits you. The Kim family regime is a real piece of work.
6. Kim Jong Un’s mystery woman sparks debate as sister, wife remain missing
New York Post · Yaron Steinbuch · October 29, 2020
Maybe this is how Kim wants to compete on the world stage. The mass games are obsolete. Perhaps providing tabloid type news to garner attention is the way to go. Kim is giving the world a soap opera view of the regime. Maybe he wants to compete in the realm of reality TV stars. His show is "wives and mistresses of the regime."
7. Why the New York Times is moving its hub to Seoul
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · October 28, 2020
Very interesting development. This says a lot for Seoul and South Korea.
8. S. Korea may find itself on 'front line of new Cold War' if it joins U.S.-led, anti-China alliance: adviser
Yonhap News Agency · sshluck@yna.co.kr · October 29, 2020
Moon Chung-In is at it again. These remarks and his views are not helpful to South Korea. He is no friend of the ROK/US alliance.
9. "Neo-Cold War" in East Asia to be disaster to region: S. Korean presidential adviser - Xinhua
Xinhua Net · October 30, 2020
Of course, the Chinese Communist Party's mouthpiece picks up on Moon Chung-In's remarks. This is perfect for the Chinese narrative. Well done, Moon Chung-In. Your friends are in Pyongyang and Beijing. know this is insensitive, but I would ban Moon Chung-In from future entry to the US based on his lack of support for the ROK/US alliance (I know that is hyperbolic and over the top, but we need to call out Moon for his damaging anti-alliance rhetoric).
10. The big stare-down: Kim Jong-un awaits outcome of US election
Business Day · Hyonhee Shin · October 30, 2020
The question is what is he going to do after the election?
My assessment of some possibilities:
Whether Trump or Biden wins, this is what I assess as the most likely North Korean course of action. The intent will be to demonstrate an advanced capability to bring the US to the negotiating table and provide concessions in return for ending the development of the "new" ICBM and SLBM, because they are potential threats to the US. I think an SLBM launch will be below the threshold demanding a response. An ICBM launch (the new Hwasong 16) to the atmosphere with a re-entry capability will be too great a threat to the US and almost certainly there will be demands for a military response which Kim does not want Also, a nuclear test will demand a response because both and ICBM and nuclear test would cross Trump's apparent red line: he has an agreement with Kim not to test these. Also, China may be working as we speak to prevent a nuclear test as it does not want any more tests conducted because of the damage to the nuclear test site and the fact that the radiation effects may impact China. China has recently been trying to shore up its alliance with the North and this could be one of the reasons.
Since we are likely to be distracted for some weeks due to the election, we need to pay attention to possible North Korean actions. Kim may very well try to take advantage of the chaos to set the conditions for future negotiations in order to extract concessions from the US.
11. Peace on Korean Peninsula ultimate goal of U.S. regardless of election outcome: Ambassador Lee
Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-kun · October 29, 2020
Yes, we want peace. Mr. Ambassador, I would take it a step further. The only way we will see peace on the peninsula and an end to the North's nuclear weapons threat and its crimes against humanity will be through the resolution of the Korean question and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea (UROK). Not any kind of confederation of one country and two systems. Only a UROK.
12. North Korea’s big nuke doesn’t scare the 100th Missile Defense Brigade
Washington Examiner · Abraham Mahshie · October 29, 2020
Good messaging from the Lieutenant Colonel. I assume it is our intention to reveal all the capabilities described below. I hope VOA and RFA pick up on this for broadcast into Pyongyang.
13. Next president will face a nuclear-armed Korea increasingly unwilling to disarm
Washington Examiner · Jamie McIntyre · October 29, 2020
Increasingly unwilling? He was never willing in the first place.
14. Viewing North Korea through the wrong lens
New Europe · Brad Adams · October 30, 2020
Human rights are not only a moral imperative, they are a national security issue. We need to focus on human rights in North Korea as much as, if not more than, we focus on the nuclear program.
15. Pyongyang post-party anniversary: shifts in construction priorities
38 North · Peter Makowsky · October 29, 2020
The hospital was supposed to be completed in time for the October 10th celebration. Another regime failure.
16. N. Korea locks down areas of border after Storm Corps trooper kills superior
Daily NK · Kim Yoo Jin · October 30, 2020
We must always be observant for indications of a breakdown in the military chains of control (control versus command… there are three: the traditional military chain, the political chain, and the security or anti-coup chain). Instability and regime collapse will occur when the regime/party is not longer able to govern the entire North from Pyongyang, combined with the loss of coherency and support of the military. A breakdown in the chains of control will be an indicator in the loss of coherency.
This is, of course only, one incident. But we must be vigilant and look for other pieces of the puzzle.
17. U.S. Ambassador made honorary Seoul citizen
Chosun Ilbo · October 30, 2020
Kudos to our Ambassador.
18. Sinuiju officials intensify bribe demands amid wider economic malaise
Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · October 29, 2020
Another indicator of central governing effectiveness (or lack thereof).
19. Special contribution by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden
Yonhap News Agency · October 30, 2020
I had to think before deciding to include this article. I offer this not from any partisan perspective or endorsement. I do think it is very interesting the former Vice President would choose to write and publish this now. It may garner some votes in the Korean-American community, but this will not have any significant effect on the election outcome.
But I think we have to look at this from a US foreign policy perspective, because if he is elected, this appears to be his blueprint for the ROK/US alliance. He is obviously trying to describe the vast difference between him and the President.
Our Korean allies pick up on the SMA issue, but I what I want to call attention to is the idea that he will "keep pressing for a unified Korean Peninsula." The Joint Vision Statements of Presidents Obama, Lee, and Park have all stated peaceful unification as the goal and President Trump and President Moon reaffirmed this on June 30, 2017 in their joint statement that said South Korea would take the lead and the US would support it in establishing the conditions for peaceful unification. But all of those are joint statements and I do not recall either President Obama or President Trump (or Presidents Bush and Clinton) talking about unification outside of a joint statement with their counterpart.
Of course, this is published in the semi-official Yonhap News Agency for both a Korean and US audience. However, I think the emphasis on unification is important (and kudos to the Vice President's Korea advisors for ensuring he includes it). But why is Korean unification important? As I have written many times:
The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
“No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.”
- James Madison
A thought: “So long as we remain amateurs in the critical field of political warfare, the billions of dollars we annually spend on defense and foreign aid will provide us with a diminishing measure of protection.”
- Senator Mundt, 1961
Anybody can be angry, but to be angry with the right person, to the right degree, at the right time, for the right purpose, that is not easy.
- Aristotle