Advances in Anticipatory Intelligence Workshop

Advances in Anticipatory Intelligence Workshop

• Is it possible to get early warnings of emerging events around the world?
• Why are some people better than others at forecasting future societal and economic events?
• With so much information out there, how do you separate the signal from the noise?

These are the kinds of questions we will address at a free day-long workshop on Advances in Anticipatory Intelligence on 25 March 2014. The conference will be held from 0830 to
1600 at the Patel Center for Global Solutions on the campus of the University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida.

The event is sponsored by USF¹s Program in National and Competitive Intelligence; the School of Information; and Cybersecurity at USF. A hot lunch will be provided, so please register (below) so we can get an accurate count.

Sessions will features the latest research from an innovative, highly successful IARPA (Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity) program exploring how best to combine and use information to forecast significant events around the world, including:

IARPA¹s ACE: Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program, which was designed to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts.

IARPA¹s Open Source Indicators (OSI) Program, which was designed to develop methods for continuous, automated analysis of publicly available data in order to anticipate and/or detect significant societal events, such as political crises, humanitarian crises, mass violence, riots, mass migrations, disease outbreaks, economic instability, resource shortages, and responses to natural disasters. Performers will be evaluated on the basis of warnings that they deliver about real-world events.

Event Agenda:

8:30-9:00 – Registration, Networking and Continental Breakfast

9:00-9:20  – Welcome and Introductory Remarks

9:20-10:45 – ACE: Aggregative Contingent Estimation: Using social science methods like the wisdom of crowds, prediction markets, aggregation algorithms, and teams to forecast international political and economic events. Michael C. Horowitz, University of Pennsylvania

10:45-11:00 – BREAK

11:00: 12:15  – EMBERS (Early Model-Based Event Recognition Using Surrogates): Generating forecasts and alerts for significant societal events using billions of pieces of information in the ocean of public communications, such as tweets, web queries, oil prices, and daily stock
market activity. Chris Walker, Virginia Tech

12:15-1:15 – Lunch (Provided)

1:15-2:30 – PULSE: Developing automated technology that draws and fuses data from social media and other publicly available sources to anticipate major societal events. David Allen, HRL

2:30-2:45 – BREAK (Snacks provided)

2:45-4:00 – JANUS: Early prediction of societal events through robust and efficient feature/indicator extraction from massive volumes of heterogeneous open-source data, time series analysis, and predictive models. Scott Miller, BBN

4:00 – Adjourn

You can register here (just name, email and organization).