Russia’s Gray-Zone Warfare Soon Won’t Be Gray | Foreign Affairs
Following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s gray-zone warfare against Europe picked up – but stayed gray. “Today, that is no longer the case,” writes former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, in her Foreign Affairs article, “Russia’s Hybrid War Has Entered a Dangerous New Phase.”
Without adequate deterrence, the risk is that these incidents lead to something more. It’s only a matter of time, Smith writes, before there’s a large-scale loss of life.
The problem is that NATO was built to be flexible. And different members have different political landscapes, not to mention assessment of risk.
As a result, Russia’s gradual intensification of hybrid attacks have left NATO in the lurch. Each incident is treated in isolation, not as a trend or campaign.
What to do
That’s why Smith argues for shared databases for attacks, integrating air, maritime, ground and cyber. Restarting the cyber program targeting Russia, which Secretary of War Hegseth mothballed last year, is another concrete recommendation. Increasing aid to Ukraine is another.
Fundamentally, NATO needs to establish some threat of consequence. Too much of the collective response has been to accuse Russia and move on. That won’t cut it when lives are inevitably lost.
The implication? You won’t be able to invoke just Article 4 forever.
