CIA’s New Cuba Task Force
Adam Entous of the New York Times reports on the CIA’s new secret task force on Cuba in “C.I.A. Sets Up Secret Cuba Task Force as Trump Pressures Havana.” The task force’s stated objective is to exact more pressure on the regime by poking at fissures within the political elite; the CIA’s checkered history in Cuba is part of what makes what happens next an open question.
The History
US operations toward the island involving the CIA– starting with Bay of Pigs– have a poor track record. And then there’s the incredibly effective counterespionage on the Cubans’ part. In recent decades, as Entous reports, the CIA has struggled to keep an effective toehold in the country due to an effective Cuban surveillance regime that culminated in the CIA pulling completely out in Trump’s first term. Can an influx of personnel and assets turn things around on the ground?
Wait and See
So now we wait to see whether a renewed CIA presence can actually help achieve Trump’s objective of regime change. The first problem the campaign faces is that a “covert” initiative plays into the Cuban regime’s hand, as it makes the case clearer to the Cuban people that the country is under attack and its continued suffering equates to national defense. Of course, a “secret” task force that doesn’t seem so secret could simply be a symbolic pursuit on Washington’s part to show Havana that it really means business. As can be the case with covert action, it’s real power might be the optics.
Cuba is No Venezuela
One thing is for certain. Cuba is no Venezuela. If anything, it is going more the way of Iran; the Cuban regime seems sticky, and a dependable Delcy Rodriguez-like replacement is looking difficult to find. And mind you: kinetic strikes are not off the table.
