American Public Sours to Iran War [Much] Faster Than Vietnam | Economist/YouGov Poll

In an Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 10 through 13, responses reflect an American public that is souring to the Iran War at levels not seen for any war since polling began. 

Consider this one. Fewer than six months since the start of hostilities in February, overall approval for the decision to attack Iran sits at -30%. Compare that to the war in Vietnam, which took six years to reach that rating.

Here is another useful comparison. 90% of Americans were in favor of the attack on Afghanistan in 2001. Per Gallup’s polling, support for the attack dropped below 50% 13 years later. By that point, 2000 Americans had died in the war. 

Support among Democrats versus Republicans is still split, with 72% of self-described MAGA republicans in favor. But that is dropping, and support among “non-MAGA” republicans sits at -25%. 

What does this tell us? 

The first thing is that Americans are against this war. Congress members and other elected representatives of the American public who support continuation of the war will suffer in upcoming elections in ways that cross the aisle. Strategists in the Trump coalition will be aware of this; expect decisions of foreign policy decisions to reflect this understanding (say, by taking strong measures to preserve the oil price towards the end of the summer– and by staying away from an aggressive, ground-based escalation before November), even if the President claims to not care about the midterms. 

The second thing is that clear and defined strategy is important for winning a war, from the minimization of casualties to efficiency in cost. But it is also important because the American public picks up on a lack thereof– and reacts. Americans were broadly supportive of the attack on Afghanistan in 2001 because the Bush Administration clearly defined a purpose (the 9/11 attacks and the threat of terrorism against the US) and an objective (the elimination of the harboring of terrorists in Afghanistan). That’s a far cry from the evolving strategic narrative vis-a-vis Iran today.

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Here’s a PDF of the Economist/YouGov Response tables: “The Economist/YouGov Poll.”

See the Economist article which reflects on the poll here: “The Iran war is America’s least popular since polls began.”