What’s Next for Iran? Scenarios for the Future of the Ayatollahs’ Regime

The U.S. Intelligence Community should crowdsource a Las Vegas-style sports betting on Iran’s future now that Israel has crippled Iran’s military and nuclear weapons infrastructure.

To that end, the Ayatollah’s regime in Iran is clearly under threat. To be sure, the Ayatollah’s control of Iran may not survive the war with Israel. With that being said, the U.S. Intelligence Community should open the betting window, so to speak, to help crystalize their thinking on the most likely outcome. Five possible scenarios are explored in this brief article.

Scenario One

Scenario one results in the regime of Iran’s Supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei surviving the war and they agree to a deal with the United States not to end their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Whether or not the U.S. also demands that Iran cease its support of anti-Israel groups, may not matter so much in the end. By most measures, Hezbollah and Hamas have been decimated, the Houthi’s mostly constrained, and Iran’s ability to continue to fund and train these groups, has been severely damaged.

In exchange for foregoing nuclear weapons, the U.S. lifts sanctions on Iran, the regime survives, albeit a shell of its former self, and Iran limps along more or less, stuck with a theocratic regime that is unpopular and living on borrowed time.

Scenario Two

In this scenario, the Iranian regime collapses, and the Ayatollah’s reign is over.

Scenario Three

In scenario three, the Iranian regime collapses, and three factions fight to fill the power void. Remnants of the hardline Islamists emerge as the follow-on to the Ayatollah and continue to carry the banner of theocratic rule.

Or, a popular uprising against continuation of theocratic rule takes hold and a new beginning for Iran is at hand. A leader of this popular uprising consolidates control and emerges as Iran’s new leader.

Scenario Four

The exiled Iranian leader and son of the former Shah, Reza Pahlavi, becomes the face of the opposition and is elected Iran’s new leader.

Scenario Five

In this scenario, none of the factions mentioned above are able to emerge as the clear leader, post Ayatollah’s, and Iran descends into a chaotic civil war. Think Lebanon. Let the betting begin.

Other scenarios might certainly exist and it is time the U.S. Intelligence Community, and others, begin exploring and preparing for these possible outcomes.