“One Megatrend I’m Following in 2025: Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy”

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views, official position, or endorsement of U.S. government, its departments or agencies, or any other organization associated with the author.

In this analysis by David M. (Infrastructure Resilience Manager at Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency), he chronicles how the global trade and supply chain landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, with profound implications for national security. He unpacks the complexities of trade policy, nearshoring, and the interplay between economic resilience and security.

From Mexico’s surge in foreign direct investment to the People’s Republic of China’s growing influence in North American trade, this piece highlights emerging risks like tariff disputes, supply chain choke points, and vulnerabilities in electronics manufacturing. The article also delves into cybersecurity initiatives like CISA’s “Secure by Design” campaign and the rise of Software Bills of Materials (SBOM) frameworks as tools to mitigate risks.

For national security professionals, understanding these dynamics is critical. This article reveals how trade policy, technology, and geopolitics intersect to influence strategic decision-making in an era of increasing uncertainty.

The article is laid out as follows:

“Going into 2025, I’ll be watching the progress of eight megatrends. In this article, I look at one of them in detail.”

• Megatrends

  “what is a megatrend? The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development describes megatrends as “large-scale changes in economies and societies over time at the intersection of multiple policy domains (with anticipated) complex and multidimensional impacts in the future…With that out of the way, here’s my view of one megatrend to follow in 2025”

  • Global supply chains and trade policy

    • Nearshoring and “friend-shoring”

    • PRC investment and consumer goods in Mexico

    • Tariffs and trade disputes

    • Labor relations and negotiations

    • Choke points

    • Border closures

    • Security of government-use and consumer electronics and IT supply chains

    • Parting thoughts

Read the full analysis here.