China’s grand strategy — past, present and future

Last week I attended a seminar on China at the Brookings Institution. At the seminar David Finkelstein gave a must-read presentation on China’s grand strategy. Finkelstein is a retired U.S. Army officer and director of CNA China Studies at CNA Corporation.

Some key points from the presentation:

1) “Because China now has global economic interests it also has expanding global political interests as well as expanding global security interests.”

2) “This new context puts China’s current leaders in terra incognita. There simply is no precedent in the history of the PRC for a China so enmeshed in the international system. Neither is there any precedent for China’s emerging status as a global actor of consequence.”

3) “Given China’s economic equities in the developing world for energy, minerals, and other critical resources, there is no question as to why China continues to stay actively engaged with and court the nations of Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.”

4) “What is new is that the PLA [Peoples Liberation Army] is finally beginning to come on line as an operational asset available to support Beijing’s larger national objectives. Today, an incipient expeditionary PLA is taking shape. More than at any time in its history, the PLA is going places and doing things.”

5) “A principal mission of PRC external propaganda is to allay fears and concerns that China’s rise will pose a threat or that China’s rise de facto makes it a revisionist power.”

6) “On the issues of capacity and coordination, it is uncertain if ‘the system’ [Chinese government and its decision-making processes] can adjust quickly enough — or in the ways required — to keep up with new demands.”

In sum, an important presentation. I recommend reading the whole thing.