“Defending Europe if Russia Steps Out of the Gray Zone”
In 2026, Liana Fix, a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and Benjamin Harris, a research associate for European foreign policy, wrote an article titled “Defending Europe if Russia Steps Out of the Gray Zone” that describes a possible shift from traditional Russian gray-zone tactics to low-level conventional attacks.
GRAY-ZONE 2.0:
Russia is traditionally known for its use of gray-zone activities—hybrid, non-conventional measures just below the threshold of open warfare—to advance its objectives; however, Fix & Harris suggest Russia may shift traditional gray-zone tactics to low-level conventional attacks against Europe, taking advantage of the instability in relations between Washington and NATO members to further broader political goals in both Ukraine and Europe.
POSSIBLE MEANS:
Fix & Harris suggest that escalation could rise to the level of sabotage campaigns in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) countries; the assassination of senior European politicians; an escalation at the Poland-Belarus border; drone swarms; and many more scenarios demonstrate Russia’s willingness to increase escalation that increases pressure on Europe.
Whether these scenarios are intentional or not, proven incidents, like Russian drones entering Poland and Romania, and a Russian fighter jet violating Estonian airspace, illustrated gaps in a collective NATO political response and how deniability enables Russia to slowly and systematically erode US and European cohesion.
DECOUPLING FROM US DEPENDENCE:
Fix & Harris present strategic solutions that would contribute to a more robust European defense against Russia; however, the majority of these solutions share a theme of reduced US dependence.
- European governments should demonstrate more proactive measures for unity and resolve among each other without waiting for a US response.
- European governments should prepare both independent defensive and offensive responses to reestablish deterrence against Russia, even if the U.S. response is less desirable.
- European governments should take steps to update both software—the structures and the formats within which Europeans communicate and coordinate—and hardware—drone capabilities, air defenses- that decrease reliance on the United States.
- European governments should consider establishing their own political and military-to-military channels with Russia.
GROWING PAINS EQUAL RUSSIAN OPPORTUNITY:
The reality is that, whether Russia escalates traditional gray-zone tactics into easily deniable events, NATO members are currently vulnerable as they seek to increase their strategic autonomy. With continued mixed messaging and U.S. retrenchment, Russia may pursue more aggressive tactics to accelerate the achievement of its politically aligned goals artificially.
While you’re here…
For more coverage on Russia’s use of sabotage in Europe, check out “Sabotage as a ‘New Normal’”
