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Organized Crime and Governance in Latin America (Video)

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03.26.2026 at 04:18pm
Organized Crime and Governance in Latin America (Video) Image

Introduction by New Lines Institute: 

In the first two months of 2026, we have seen a significant shift in how the U.S. seeks to combat illicit networks and criminality abroad. U.S. policy in 2026 has shifted toward a militarized, interagency crackdown on transnational criminal networks in Latin America, underscoring Washington’s prioritization of the joint counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism file. Simultaneously, Russia’s gray-zone strategy increasingly leverages criminal networks and non-state operatives for hybrid operations across Europe, blending sabotage, recruitment of outsiders with criminal ties, and illicit activities to pressure NATO allies and undermine cohesion below the threshold of open war, a tactic that risks escalating covert tensions as these proxy networks grow in 2026. In response to these shifting risks, the New Lines Institute’s Crime-Conflict Nexus Portfolio is proud to announce the launch of its Mafiacracies Project, a new initiative that explores cases around the world in which criminal syndicates have apprehended state institutions or been co-opted by state actors. The project seeks to raise awareness of the implications of illicit actors’ proximity to governance and to identify pathways for policymakers to manage the effects of ‘mafiacracies’.

As we establish this new initiative, we are pleased to convene two discussions as part of our Mafiacracies Project launch on March 18th, 2026.

As the U.S. recalibrates its approach to crime and security in Latin America and the criminal landscape continues to evolve, this discussion convenes key experts on crime, conflict, and regional politics to explore what these shifts mean for governance, security, and illicit activity in the region. This panel features:
    • Rafaella Lipshitz, Associate Analyst, New Lines Institute (Moderator);
    • Stefano Ritondale, Chief Intelligence Officer, Astorias;
    • Dr. Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin America, the Council on Foreign Relations.
    • James Bosworth, Non-Resident Fellow, Stimson Center;
    • Dr. Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, TraCCC at George Mason University

  • Uploaded to Youtube on Mar 20, 2026- This discussion was held on March 18, from 10:30 a.m. to 11:45 a.m. EST.
    This online panel was part of the launch event for Mafiacracies, held on March 18. As the United States recalibrates its approach to crime and security in Latin America, and as criminal networks across the region continue to evolve, this discussion brings together leading experts to examine what these shifts mean for governance, security, and illicit activity across the region. Panelists explored the changing criminal landscape in Latin America, how organized crime is shaping state institutions and regional politics, and what these developments could mean for policymakers and observers alike.

This discussion highlights the critical strategic shifts in Western Hemisphere security. The current United States national security strategy has elevated the Western Hemisphere as a primary theater of concern, specifically focusing on the fusion of counterterrorism and counter-cartel frameworks. This shift is exemplified by the potential for Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designations for Mexican cartels, a move that would fundamentally alter the authorities available to the Department of Justice and the U.S. military. While this framing increases resource allocation and interagency focus on criminal financing, experts on the panel express concern that it may prioritize lethal kinetic actions over the dismantling of complex corruption networks. The discussion emphasizes that these criminal entities are not monolithic organizations. They are adaptive systems deeply embedded in both licit and illicit economies, making them resilient to traditional “kingpin” strategies that target individual leaders.
 

Regional responses to this landscape vary significantly, with a notable swing toward militarized security across Latin America. Ecuador serves as a primary case study for this trend, as the government actively invites U.S. military assistance, including intelligence support and targeted kinetic strikes against cartel camps. In contrast, the situation in Venezuela represents a unique challenge where state-embedded criminality has become a tool of governance, forcing U.S. policymakers to balance economic interests with the desire to confront criminal structures like the “Cartel de los Soles.” The panel also explores the technological evolution of these groups, specifically the widespread use of drones for both surveillance and weaponized delivery, which has become a standard feature of modern criminal warfare in Mexico. Ultimately, the experts suggest that while military pressure provides visible results, long-term stability depends on addressing the underlying institutional fragility and the financial nodes that sustain these transnational networks.

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