Why Trump Is Waging a Little War in Somalia

Abstract

Since January, the Trump administration has increased airstrikes in Somalia even as it seeks to reduce military involvement elsewhere. This reflects President Trump’s (perhaps questionable) belief that, in Somalia, counterterrorism and great power competition can be pursued simultaneously and at low cost. Unless this changes, expect this little war to continue.

Introduction

Since President Donald Trump took office, the United States has ramped up airstrikes against terrorist groups in Somalia, even as he promises to get our country out of “forever wars.” He signed off on an agreement to build five bases for the Somali National Army, then slashed foreign aid to the rest of Africa. In Syria, Iraq, and Ukraine, Trump thinks that American interests are too few and/or costs are too high to justify continued involvement, but that is not so in Somalia. To Trump, Somalia is both a hotbed of terrorism and an arena of competition with China and Iran, all at a low price. Understanding why the president views Somalia this way provides insight into his priorities—and where he might turn the military next.

Fears of Terrorism

Although his Secretary of State describes China as “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted,” the administration’s rhetoric towards terrorists is equally shrill. Following an airstrike against an Islamic State-Somalia (IS-S) leader, the president promised all terrorists, “We will find you, and we will kill you!” Behind the bravado lies a belief that, even in an era of great power competition, foreign terrorist attacks are an existential threat. “These killers,” he wrote on social media, “threatened the United States and our allies” — even though they were “found hiding in caves.” For all his rhetoric about ending forever wars, terrorism remains on Trump’s mind.

It is thus unsurprising that Trump would prioritize Somalia. It is a major hub of terrorism: IS-S is now the Islamic State’s most online and externally-focused franchise, serving as a nerve center and funder for partners as far away as Afghanistan. Western intelligence even believes that Abdulqadir Mumin, leader of IS-S, is the current caliph of the global Islamic State. If Trump wants to fight terrorism, Somalia seems a good place to do so.

Trump has a political motivation as well. He needs only look at his predecessors to see the risks of letting a Middle Eastern state collapse. President Obama’s decision to withdraw from Iraq in 2011 allowed ISIS to dominate his second term, while the disintegration of Libya set the stage for the Benghazi controversy. President Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan triggered a decline in his poll numbers from which he never recovered. Trump does not want Somalia to be his Middle East disaster.

Unfortunately, Somalia eerily resembles Afghanistan in the months before the Taliban takeover. Somalia remains unable to secure its own territory, while the head of US Africa Command warns that IS-S doubled in size between 2023 and 2024. Since conditions have only worsened, it makes sense politically for the president to double down militarily so Somalia does not collapse on his watch.

A Great Game in the Horn of Africa

While terrorism worries the Trump administration, cuts in the Middle East and Africa are often justified on the grounds that they free up resources for a contest with China and Iran. Somalia is the exception. Strategically located on the southern threshold of the Red Sea, through which 12% of seaborne oil passes, and at the intersection of Africa, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean, it is useful for projecting power or denying it to others. Trump fears a world in which China or Iran uses Somalia to project power, disrupt trade, and keep the US Navy from transiting the Red Sea.

To Trump, such a world is not far-fetched. Cuts to foreign aid provide China an opportunity to build its influence in aid-dependent countries like Somalia, as does America’s relationship with the breakaway region of Somaliland. Iran has provided weapons to Somali terrorist group al-Shabaab, threatening Red Sea trade much like the Houthis in Yemen. Considering Somalia already has close relations with non-US actors like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, it is feasible that Chinese and Iranian influence could eclipse our own.

Trump is aware of Somalia’s geopolitical importance and America’s tenuous influence there. Increased military involvement, he believes, is the best way to keep Somalia close and competitors away. It is irrelevant whether Trump prioritizes great power competition or counterterrorism; in Somalia, he believes he can do both.

Intervention on the Cheap

Equally important is Trump’s belief that the costs of military involvement in Somalia are low. Cost is clearly a concern for the administration—as Vice President JD Vance made clear when he chastised underspending NATO allies at the Munich Security Conference—and it has shaped such foreign policy decisions as gutting foreign aid. If Somalia is a “cheap” war, Trump will have little reason to withdraw.

What makes the cost of military involvement in Somalia so low is the number of foreign actors with which we split the bill. Turkey, not the US, is the main player in the country, waging an extensive drone war, training elite Somali brigades, and promoting foreign investment. With Qatar and the UAE providing military aid as well, Trump has no reason to believe that partners are freeriding on the US. Human and financial costs are kept low by the small American footprint: local forces do the bulk of the fighting while the US supports with unmanned drone strikes. As a result, casualties and costs are low enough that Trump sees no reason to change course.

Conclusion

Trump’s decision to expand airstrikes in Somalia reflects a foreign policy defined by contradictions. China is priority number one, but our most active operations are counterterrorism. Rhetoric is both hawkish and cost-cutting. To Trump, Somalia avoids these contradictions: It is a battleground against both terrorism and foreign influence, all at a low cost. The country is too important and the price too low to ease up. Only time will tell if Trump is right, or if Somalia will become his own “forever war.