Russian Military Performance and Outlook | Congressional Research Service

 Russian Military Performance and Outlook | Updated May 28, 2025

Introduction:

Despite the advantages of a larger recruitment base and defense industrial capacity, the Russian military has not been able to decisively defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The Russian military has suffered significant losses in personnel and equipment. Its performance has been hindered by a rigid command and control structure, a weakened corps of trained and professional units, and a reliance on tactics that have contributed to high casualty rates. The Russian military, however, appears to remain a resilient and capable adversary and is likely to sustain its operational tempo in the near term.

Since 2022, Congress has supported Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s renewed invasion through enacting five supplemental appropriations measures that have provided assistance to Ukraine. Members may consider the Russian military’s condition and performance as they evaluate the state of the war, assess the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions on Russia, evaluate the Russian military’s prospective reconstitution and longer-term threat to U.S. and European security, and deliberate about whether to appropriate further military or other assistance for Ukraine.

Outline:

• Command and Control
• Personnel
  • Casualties
  • Recruitment and Mobilization
• Equipment and Ammunition
• Current Military Performance Outlook

Brief Overview:

The Russian military’s performance in Ukraine reveals a complex landscape of resilience and systemic challenges. Despite maintaining a larger recruitment base and substantial defense industrial capacity, Russian forces have struggled to decisively defeat Ukrainian Armed Forces since the February 2022 invasion. Significant personnel and equipment losses, coupled with a rigid Soviet-style command structure, have undermined operational effectiveness.

Key strategic developments include leadership changes, with President Putin replacing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov in May 2024, signaling a recognition of the war’s long-term economic and military implications. Casualty estimates range from 790,000 to 900,000, predominantly affecting elite soldiers and junior officers. Russia has responded by increasing military size to 1.5 million active-duty troops and implementing aggressive recruitment strategies, including substantial financial incentives and coercive conscription methods.

The Russian defense industry has pivoted to wartime production, allocating 40% of the 2025 federal budget to military and security services. However, sanctions and component shortages have forced a focus on refurbishing older equipment rather than producing advanced weapon systems. The military’s current strategy emphasizes attrition warfare, with localized successes in eastern Ukraine offset by continued challenges in breaking through defensive lines.