Securing the Flow: Addressing the National Security Vulnerabilities in the US Water Supply
Protecting the sanctity of our water supply is not merely an environmental concern, it is a critical national security priority and challenge. As demand for water increases due to population growth, climate change, and industrial expansion, the United States faces significant vulnerabilities in its water supply distribution systems, such as aging infrastructure and outdated information technology (IT) systems which plague water management capabilities at every level, from municipal utilities to federal agencies. Many water treatment plants and distribution networks rely on decades-old infrastructure, making them susceptible to failures and contamination. Additionally, legacy IT systems, often lacking modern cybersecurity measures, expose critical water assets to cyberattacks from state and non-state actors. A targeted attack on the domestic water supply—whether through direct contamination, such as introducing a biological agent into an aquifer, or through a cyberattack on critical command, control, and distribution systems—would be considered an act of aggression with serious consequences. Such disruptions could cripple water distribution, triggering a cascade of problems, from local economic instability to major public health crises like cholera or typhoid outbreaks. If left unaddressed, these emergencies could also escalate into broader political tensions, similar to the ongoing water disputes between Mexico and the US. With water becoming an increasingly contested resource, safeguarding its availability and security must be recognized as a national priority requiring immediate investment and policy reform.
The security of our nation’s water supply is not an isolated concern; rather, it is deeply intertwined with broader national security threats, including agroterrorism–the deliberate release of plant or animal diseases as an act of terror—and foreign exploitation of critical resources such as “virtual water”, the act of using local water by a foreign entity to grow crops for export. Addressing these interconnected threats requires a strategic approach that prioritizes water security as a fundamental pillar of national resilience, supported by the implementation of strategic infrastructure investments, policy reforms, and cybersecurity enhancements.
Growing Demand and Strain on Water Resources
Population growth and urbanization are deeply connected, driving each other in a cycle of rapid acceleration. While David Kilcullen examined this dynamic through the lens of global conflict, its impact extends far beyond, placing immense pressure on our aquatic resources. As cities expand and populations surge, the demand for clean water increases, ecosystems are disrupted, and the strain on freshwater supplies intensifies. These trends are not just shaping our urban landscapes—they are fundamentally reshaping the way we interact with and depend on water.
Rapid urbanization and increased standard of living drives increased demand for water, energy, food, and recreation, intensifying pressure on essential resources. This pressure leads to increased competition over water resources and the potential for conflicts. A notable example of intrastate conflict occurred in 1994, when the City of Los Angeles filed a lawsuit against the Owens Valley Irrigation District. The city alleged that local farmers and ranchers were unlawfully diverting water resources legally allocated to Los Angeles. Disputes between states over access to and control of waterways have been omnipresent throughout US history. In 1931, Massachusetts proposed a plan to divert water from the Ware and Swift rivers, tributaries to the Connecticut River watershed, to be redirected to the Boston area for drinking and other domestic purposes. This interstate water lawsuit ensnarled both states, which eventually made its way to the US Supreme Court, who ultimately sided with Massachusetts.
Another example was the 64-year dispute of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin Compact. The interstate water dispute between Alabama, Florida, and Georgia centered on the allocation of a vital water supply, impacting everything from municipal consumption demand to navigation, agriculture, watershed health, and the Apalachicola Bay oyster industry. Despite efforts to reach a resolution, negotiations ultimately broke down, leading to the compact’s dissolution in 2003. The termination of this contract had lasting consequences for the region, fueling ongoing economic and agricultural hardships. Reduced freshwater flows devastated the Apalachicola Bay oyster industry, strained agricultural production downstream in Alabama and Florida, and disrupted navigation along the Apalachicola River, all of which continue to impact local economies today. Recently, the US Department of State denied Mexico’s request for additional water from the Colorado River, citing the terms of a longstanding water-sharing treaty established in 1944. This decision is likely to heighten tensions between the two nations as water scarcity continues to intensify throughout the border region.
Alongside increasing pressure on surface water supplies, America’s integral domestic supply, contained in underground aquifers and quantified by availability and quality, is reaching critical levels of groundwater depletion. In many regions, withdrawal rates are nearing—or have already surpassed—natural recharge capacities (see Figure 1), posing significant risks to long-term water security and ecosystem stability. A 2023 The New York Times investigation revealed that 45% of the country’s wells had experienced a drop in water levels to record lows since 1980. The report further emphasized the growing threat this posed to the long-term survival of 90 percent of rural communities that relied heavily on groundwater and had few, if any, viable alternatives. Even some major cities, such as San Antonio, Texas rely exclusively on groundwater for all their needs. This trajectory signals an urgent need for robust groundwater governance and coordinated policy action.
California’s Central Valley Aquifer exemplifies the severity of the issue, with groundwater now supplying 60 percent of irrigation needs—up from a historical average of 40 percent—due to prolonged drought and surface water shortages. Alarmingly, this is not an isolated case as 21 of the world’s 37 largest aquifers have been assessed to have crossed a critical sustainability threshold, meaning “more water is removed than replaced”. These trends highlight the pressing need for data-driven water management strategies and long-term investment in resilient water infrastructure.
Figure 1 – Global Aquifer Depletion Levels
Vulnerabilities in US Water Infrastructure
Existing US water infrastructure is plagued by severe vulnerabilities–aging IT control and management systems, distribution networks, and treatment plants–driven by decades of persistent underinvestment. Continued deterioration, and inevitable failure, of domestic systems and networks poses severe risks to public health and industrial output, resulting in public health crises through contamination events and increasingly frequent and prolonged supply disruption.
In recent years, mainstream media has put a growing spotlight on water infrastructure failures, raising public awareness of these critical issues. These failures serve as stark reminders of the vulnerabilities in aging systems and have underscored the urgent need for investment and modernization in aging systems.
In April 2014, the city of Flint, Michigan switched its water source from Lake Huron to the Flint River in an attempt to save money. The Flint River water was more corrosive than the treated water from Lake Huron, and without proper corrosion control treatment, lead from the city’s aging pipes and plumbing leached into the water supply. This led to high levels of lead in the drinking water, exposing approximately 100,000 residents, including many children, to dangerous levels of lead. Lead contamination has been has been linked to damage the central and peripheral nervous system, learning disabilities, shorter stature, impaired hearing, and impaired formation and function of blood cells.
Jackson, Mississippi residents suffered for decades with discolored, oily water, and similarly to Flint, elevated levels of lead due to water treatment plant’s inability to properly filter and disinfect the water. For years, residents endured increasingly frequent/repeated “boil water” notices and water shutoffs. During a bought of storms in August 2022, subsequent flooding caused the O.B. Curtis Water Treatment plant to fail, leaving approximately 150,000 people without access to safe drinking water. Before the crisis, Jackson issued numerous boil water notices due to lead and copper contaminated water, highlighting the ongoing challenges with the city’s water system.
Additional Aquatic Threats
Agroterrorism—the “intentional introduction of plant or animal diseases to incite fear, disrupt food security, inflict economic damage, and destabilize society”—poses a serious risk to both agricultural production, public health, and military readiness. Killing livestock and plants or contaminating food can help terrorists cause economic crises or undermine consumer confidence in the agriculture and food industries. According to Domestic Preparedness Journal, pests, contamination, pathogens, and cybersecurity are the four most probable threats to the food and agriculture sector.
The intentional release of foot-and-mouth disease poses a serious threat to US agriculture and the economy. Defined by the World Organization for Animal Health as a highly contagious livestock disease, the disease was eradicated in the US in 1929 but remains present in parts of South America, Africa, and Asia. The virus is 20 times more contagious than smallpox, capable of airborne transmission over 50 miles, and can survive for weeks under favorable conditions. While not a human health threat, a single outbreak could spread rapidly and disrupt global trade. A clear example of the potential economic devastation was the naturally occurring 2001 outbreak in the United Kingdom, which impacted approximately 9,000 farms and led to the culling of more than four million animals, causing billions in losses and long-term disruption to the agricultural sector.
Furthermore, the increasing trend of foreign ownership of US farmland to solely supply foreign market demand exacerbates water scarcity as vast quantities of local water are consumed for irrigation, only for the harvested crops to be exported abroad. This phenomenon, known as “virtual water,” effectively transfers American water resources overseas, straining local supplies and raising questions about long-term sustainability and national security implications of water management. In 2014, Saudi Arabian dairy enterprise, Almarai, purchased and leased almost 1,800 acres in Arizona to grow alfalfa, only to be shipped back to Saudi Arabia to feed dairy cows. Since the land is outside of the state’s active management area, there is no monitoring of the quantity of water being pumped from the ground. Although virtual water isn’t inherently harmful—and can sometimes reduce water use—its extraction from water-stressed communities is raising concern amid growing water crises.
Cybersecurity Threats to Water Management Systems
Water management systems are exposed to risks not only through their physical infrastructure but also through the digital networks that control automation and cybersecurity. As these IT systems become more interconnected, the threat landscape expands, making them potential targets for phishing attack, brute force attack, system failures, and data breaches. As reliance on automation grows, so does the need for comprehensive protection, reinforcing the importance of a robust, multi-layered defense strategy to safeguard both physical and digital assets.
Security deficiencies of legacy IT systems are potential threat vectors for state-sponsored and non-state actors to conduct cyberattacks. Numerous cybersecurity breaches have occurred across the US and Europe in the last few years and luckily, have been limited to nuisance disruptions and data exfiltration.
While there are many case studies worth examining, a few stand out for their impact and relevance. One such case occurred in July 2022, when hackers from the CLOP ransomware group breached the SCADA systems of South Staffordshire PLC in the United Kingdom. The attackers disrupted the company’s corporate network and accessed sensitive customer data, including personally identifiable information (PII). They even posted screenshots from the Master Station online. This incident mirrors similar cyberattacks on American Water in October 2024 and Veolia North America in January 2024. Despite the breach, the water supply for the 1.6 million people served by South Staffordshire PLC remained unaffected.
In November 2023, the Municipal Water Authority of Aliquippa in the United States experienced a cyberattack that targeted the operational technology of its water system. The attackers exploited weak security on an internet-connected controller, gaining access by using the device’s default passwords – something easily found online. Once inside, they took the controller offline, which disrupted the system’s ability to maintain proper water pressure. As a result, operators had to switch to a manual backup system to keep operations running smoothly.
A similar incident occurred in Muleshoe, Texas, in January 2024. In that case, hackers remotely adjusted system settings and controls, causing a water tank to overflow for approximately 30 to 45 minutes.
The integration of smart technologies and real-time monitoring within water infrastructure represents a cost-effective approach to mitigating specific cyber threats. However, the human factor continues to pose a significant risk, particularly in relation to fundamental security practices such as changing default credentials. Despite advancements in automation and system intelligence, human error and oversight remain critical vulnerabilities within the cybersecurity landscape.
Economic and Public Health Consequences
Water insecurity poses a profound threat to society, with consequences that extend far beyond immediate shortages. The US may not currently face water scarcity, but it does have a serious water distribution problem.. Contaminated supplies and failing infrastructure endanger public health, while disruptions in water availability can destabilize local economies and strain essential services. Left unchecked, these challenges can erode the foundations of communities, leading to long-term social, economic, and environmental instability. According to Sarango, Senier, and Harlan, “the cost of restoring the nation’s deteriorating physical water infrastructure, improving the quality of drinking water, and fortifying water systems to handle the effects of climate change will continue to drive up consumer rates in the US for years to come.” Addressing water security is not just a matter of resource management — it is essential for safeguarding public health, economic resilience, and societal well-being which overlooked, will have compounding consequences.
Poor water distribution not only is complicit in water insecurity, but it also increases the burden on emergency response systems and healthcare infrastructure. Inadequate sanitation and a lack of potable water can cause a variety of illnesses as well as have adverse effects on mental and social development, especially in children. In the US-Mexico border region, many homes lack piped water and septic systems, leading to high rates of waterborne illnesses like gastrointestinal infections and communicable diseases due to unsanitary storage and living conditions. With rising climate uncertainties and emerging threats, the provision of basic water sanitation services are subject to ever increasing fragilities due to human and environmental hazards, extreme climate events, armed conflict and terrorist attacks, dam failure, and cyber disruptions.
Prolonged water scarcity can quickly destabilize society, much like what we see during natural disasters. As access dwindles, panic sets in—leading to price spikes, hoarding, and conflict over supply. Criminal enterprises may exploit the situation, and tensions between communities can escalate into violence. Law enforcement and emergency services would be stretched thin, and governments may be forced to declare states of emergency. When water becomes scarce, law and order can erode rapidly.
Conclusion
The challenges facing America’s water systems extend far beyond environmental concerns. These are national security threats hiding in plain sight. Population growth, climate unpredictability, industrial demand—each adds pressure to already strained water resources. A coordinated, resilient distribution system remains absent. Communities remain vulnerable. The nation remains exposed.
This issue concerns security, stability, and readiness for future crises. Water infrastructure is crumbling. Technology is outdated. Systems remain exposed to cyberattacks. The risk is clear—public health, the economy, national stability stand in the balance.
Aging treatment plants, interstate water disputes, foreign control of farmland, agroterrorism—all tie the security of water supply to national resilience. Inaction could lead to contaminated water, displaced communities, economic upheaval, geopolitical friction.
Water is not just an environmental issue. It is a strategic resource. National security depends on its protection. Investment in infrastructure, cybersecurity, long-term policy is essential.
The United States must treat water as a national security asset. Action must follow.
