Trump vs. Scheinbaum – Migrant Caravans & Drugs Policies Weighed Against Trade

Recent interactions between Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and US President elect Donald Trump point towards a quid-pro-quo arrangement between governments to slow or stop migrants, particularly migrant caravans, and reduce drug trafficking, singling out fentanyl, in return for not facing tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States.

In what appeared to be an unusual, but timely response to Trump’s threats, the Mexican government on 3 December 2024, showcased some recent operations that included the destruction of 43 methamphetamine and other clandestine labs in the Mexican states of Guanajuato, Guerrero, Michoacán, Querétaro and Guerrero.[1] They also reported the seizure of over one ton of fentanyl pills, or approximately more than 20 million deadly doses.[2] These actions were, as described by Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection Omar García Harfuch, conducted in response to intercartel violence in Sinaloa, but the coincidence in timeliness lends credit to the idea that Trump spurred these actions with his tariffs threats.[3] The seizures reported by Omar García Harfuch, Secretary of Public Safety and Security, provide the elements of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, that Mexico and Mexican transnational criminals organizations (TCOs) are producing fentanyl in Mexico and exporting it to the United States. Regardless of motives or political wrangling between Mexico and the United States, these law enforcement actions are demonstrative of the fact that the Mexican government can effectively conduct counterdrug operations, if and when it develops the political will, or have other motives to act.

Mexican Migrant Caravan Suppression Actions

Media reports also credit Sheinbaum’s administration with recently taking swift action against caravans, reported in detail herein. On the migration issue, however, it appears that Sheinbaum is attempting to gaslight Donald Trump by veiling her activities underneath a sleight of hand.

On one hand she claims to support migrants as they traverse Mexico, and on the other, she took credit for dissolving two caravans that had already disbanded themselves, or fell apart into smaller groups, largely independent of government intervention.

Migrant Caravans Policy Analysis

On Wednesday, 27 November 2024, President-elect Donald Trump stated on social media that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had agreed to stop unauthorized migration through Mexico and across the border into the United States. Luis García Villagrán, a migrant activist, stated that the dissolution of the two migrant caravans mentioned appeared to be part of “an agreement between the President of Mexico and the President of the United States (President-elect) Donald Trump.”[4]

Allegedly Dissolved Caravan – 1 (ADC1)

Soon after the Trump tariff threats, media reports indicated that the Mexican government had allegedly two dissolved caravans. The first (identified internally as ADC1) of the two caravans that were allegedly broken up by Mexican immigration officials, reportedly departed Tapachula, Chiapas, on 5 November 2024. The routes are shown below in Figure 1. According to the Mexican government, the caravan was reportedly comprised of approximately 2,500 marchers at its highest point, and after 4 weeks only traveled approximately 430 kilometers (267 miles) from the Guatemala border to Tehuantepec, Oaxaca.

The remnants of this caravan were reportedly diverted by bus to Acapulco, the capital of the state of Guerrero, which is a coastal city further north of Chiapas and Oaxaca along the Pacific coast. Other migrants were allegedly sent to Morelia, Michoacán, even further north of Guerrero and west of Mexico City. Still others were allegedly sent south to Oaxaca, the capitol of the state of Oaxaca, also along the southern Pacific coast of Mexico.

Figure 1. Trump vs. Scheinbaum – Migrant Caravans & Drug Policies Weighed Against Trade.

Migrant Caravans – Comparison of Reported Routes Taken

Allegedly Dissolved Caravan – 1 (ADC1) coincides with and is one in the same as Caravan 39 (C39), that departed Tapachula on 5 November 2024. Movement traction for C39 was previously reported by Voir Dire International.

However, instead of having been dissolved by Mexican Immigration authorities, C39, shown in Figure 2, numbered as many as 3,300 marchers and by Friday, 8 November 2004, had fractured and continued movement as two separate vectors.

The first vector (C39A) returned to Tapachula, Chiapas from an unknown location and arrived in Mapastepec, Chiapas on Friday, 8 November 2024. C39A, which was comprised of the remnants of the original main body (1,600–2,000 marchers), dissolved on Friday, 8 November 2024 at or near Mapastepec.

The second of the two vectors (C39B), had started simultaneously in Tuxtla Gutierrez and continued its march to Mexico City. Based on the original starting numbers, it is believed that C39B was comprised of less than 1,000 marchers.[5]

After 3–4 days of forward traction, on 8 November 2024, marchers of C39 reportedly became disheartened by Donald Trump winning the US Presidency and some lost hope for future entry into the United States. At that point, C39 ceased forward movement and was considered a closed mass migration event.[6]

Figure 2. Caravan 39

Allegedly Dissolved Caravan – 2 (ADC2)

The second of the two caravans (ADC2) that were allegedly dissolved by Mexican immigration officials, reportedly departed Tapachula, Chiapas, on or about 17–20 November 2024 (See Figure 3 below). According to the Mexican government, the caravan was reportedly comprised of approximately 500 marchers at its highest point, and after 4 weeks allegedly only traveled approximately 224 kilometers (57 miles) from the Guatemala border to Tonalá, Chiapas. According to the Mexican government, the remnants of this caravan, approximately 500 marchers were provided transit visas for 20 days.

Figure 3. ADC2: Trump vs. Scheinbaum – Migrant Caravans & Drug Policies Weighed Against Trade

Critical Review

Allegedly Dissolved Caravan – 2 (ADC2) coincides with, and is one in the same as, Caravan 40 (C40), that departed Tapachula between 17–20 November 2024. Movement traction for C40 was previously reported by Voir Dire International.

C40, shown in Figure 4 below, was originally comprised of approximately 1,500 marchers, combined from separate groups traveling independently, and were assessed to be the second iteration of Caravan 39, which had disbanded and returned to Tapachula, Chiapas. Remnants of C39 were scattered along the highway between Chiapas and Oaxaca, and reformed as a new group on Sunday, 17 November 2024.

C40 transited Los Corazones, Oaxaca (on the border between the Mexican states of Chiapas and Oaxaca) on 17 November 12024 and arrived in San Pedro Tapanatepec, Oaxaca the next day, on the 18 November 2024.

C40 was reportedly headed to Juchitan de Zaragoza, Oaxaca as its next stop. Considering only the known stop at San Pedro Tapanatepec, C40 traveled 291 kilometers (180 miles) north of Tapachula in the first 24 hours of travel.

Figure 4. Caravan 40

By 30 November 2024, when the Mexican government reported the alleged dissolution of a second smaller caravan, they were reporting what had already happened, that the caravan had already broken into smaller groups, given that caravans normally travel in a serpentine manner, breaking into separate, smaller nodes.

Mexican Immigration Policy by Sleight of Hand

While the Mexican government or Mexican media was attempting to put a positive spin on the alleged dissolution of one of these caravans, there is substantial reporting that conveys the opposite.

Rather than being broken up by the government, the allegedly dissolved Caravan – 1 coincides with, and is one in the same as Caravan 39 which dissolved itself three to four days after onset, directly related to the election of Donald Trump, as migrants lamented that immigration policies would become punitive in nature.

While not knowing the particulars of any caravan movement iteration, Mexican immigration officials appear to have selected, transported and scattered smaller groups of migrants that were found along the same principal highways that traverse Mexico, to create the illusion that the Mexican government is stopping the forward movement of organized caravans. This scenario is represented in action by the reports of Allegedly Dissolved Caravan – 2 (ADC2), which coincides with, and is one in the same as, Caravan 40 (C40), that departed Tapachula between 17–20 November 2024.

On 4 December 2024, the Mexican government announced the detention of 5,234 migrants throughout the country.[7] While announcing through social media that Mexico would help stop the movement of caravans traveling through Mexico, neither Trump nor the Mexican government reported when this alleged new policy would take effect. The details of any agreement between Sheinbaum and Trump have not been fully disclosed or officially published.

Caravan 41 (C41) & Caravan 42 (C42)

Given the informality of the policy changes that pledge to stop caravans moving through Mexico, organized masses of migrants continue to form and transit the country on their way north. During an apparent policy that would stop caravan movement, a new group of approximately 2,000 organized marchers departed Tapachula, Chiapas on 2 December 2024, designated internally as C41. Yet another group comprised of approximately 2,000 marchers departed Tapachula on 12 December 2024, designated internally as C42.

Endnotes

[1] “Omar García Harfuch Destaca Detenciones en Sinaloa Durante Operativos Conjuntos,” N+, 3 December 2024, https://www.nmas.com.mx/nacional/seguridad/detenciones-en-sinaloa-omar-garcia-harfuch-destaca-arrestos-operativos-conjuntos/.

[2] “Decomiso Histórico de Fentanilo En Sinaloa Por Fuerzas Federales.” N+. 3 December 2024, https://www.nmas.com.mx/nacional/seguridad/decomiso-historico-mas-grande-de-fentanilo-en-sinaloa-por-fuerzas-federales/.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Edgar Clemente, “Activists Say Mexican Authorities Have Broken up 2 Migrant Caravans Heading to the US.” Associated Press. 30 November 2024, https://apnews.com/article/mexico-migrant-caravans-trump-tariffs-c4611c47fc53e2c494545a7cef194e88.

[5] Op. cit. at Note 1 and 2.

[6] Jesus Mesa, “Migrant Caravan: Travelers Turn Back as Trump Win Ends ‘Dream of Getting Out.’”Newsweek, 7 November 2024. https://www.newsweek.com/migrant-caravans-turn-back-after-trump-election-win-1982274; Daniel Becerril and Lizbeth Diaz, “Mexico’s Migrant Caravan Breaking up after Trump Victory Sows Uncertainty.” Reuters. 7 November 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-win-casts-doubt-future-mexicos-migrant-caravan-2024-11-07/.

[7] Reuters, “Detienen a más de 5 mil migrantes en su paso por México tras amenazas de Trump.” LatinUS. 4 December 2024, https://latinus.us/mexico/2024/12/4/detienen-mas-de-mil-migrantes-en-su-paso-por-mexico-tras-amenazas-de-trump-129852.html.

For Additional Reading

Gary J. Hale and Jie Mia, “Migrant Caravans: A Deep Dive Into Mass Migration through Mexico and the Effects of Immigration Policy.” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Center for the U.S. and Mexico. 2 March 2023, https://doi.org/10.25613/6FRS-8K68.