04/22/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets
2. Indo-Pacific, DNI deputy nominees named
3. President Biden Announces Key Administration Nominations for National Security
4. Coming soon: An announcement on which Army and Navy units will move to the Space Force
5. Pentagon extremism adviser lays out challenge facing military after two commanders deny a problem exists
6. Chairman Menendez Announces Bipartisan Comprehensive China Legislation
7. Indo-Pacific commander Aquilino confirmed in Senate
8. The Original Sin of the War in Afghanistan
9. Cost of Afghan war exceeds $2.26tn and rising
10. How Cyber Ops Increase the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War
11. $264B for ICBMs That Would Be Destroyed in the Ground? No, Thanks
12. At least 10 Asia Pacific gov’ts use COVID-19 for censorship, disinformation
13. US Nuclear Fears Are Shifting From a Clear Russian Threat to a Murkier Chinese One
14. No Legal Objection, Per Se
15. A Bad Case of Déjà Vu16.
16. Psychological Warfare: Principles for Global Competition
17. Jetpacks give Special Forces assets the edge
18. What is China’s Belt and Road Initiative and what were the four deals the federal government tore up?
19. China’s Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America by Hal Brands
20. Today’s Generals and Admirals: What Has Happened to our Senior Military Officers?
1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets
The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 21, 2021
Excerpts: “Practically every week, the Taliban delivered these lists of infractions to U.S. diplomats and military officials in Doha, Qatar, who took the complaints — investigating some and dismissing others as inaccurate.
In a way, the spreadsheets’ very existence supported President Biden’s rationale for pulling out completely, even when his generals wanted to stay: A conditions-based withdrawal, as the Pentagon wanted, seemed bound to fail because neither side could agree on whether the other party was even meeting the conditions they had signed on to.
2. Indo-Pacific, DNI deputy nominees named
Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · April 21, 2021
3. President Biden Announces Key Administration Nominations for National Security
APRIL 21, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES
4. Coming soon: An announcement on which Army and Navy units will move to the Space Force
c4isrnet.com · by Valerie Insinna · April 21, 2021
Excerpts: “The Space Force is set to grow from about 2,400 active-duty members to about 6,400 people by the end of 2021, Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond said in December. Some of those new guardians are expected to transfer in from the Army and Navy.
In a February interview with Military Times, Raymond said he expected at least 34 soldiers and sailors to transfer into the Space Force this year, with hundreds more joining them in 2022. However, he stressed that troops would not be forced to move to the new service.
“You can’t order somebody to come in the Space Force,” he said. “It’s all voluntary.”
5. Pentagon extremism adviser lays out challenge facing military after two commanders deny a problem exists
CNN · by Barbara Starr
Excerpts: “Austin also instructed the services to improve their screening of those entering the military and better train those leaving it. He called for updated and standardized screening questionnaires to detect current or previous extremist activities, while also instructing the services to better train people leaving the military on extremist groups who may seek to recruit them.
At the same time, a new Countering Extremism Working Group will look to see if there is a need to update or amend the Uniform Code of Military Justice, find ways to work better with civilian law enforcement and determine whether algorithms can help better screen social media posts for indicators of extremist ideologies.
But on Wednesday Garrison made clear there is still a long way to go for the military to get a grip on the extremism problem.
“We want the American people to understand and know that we see this behavior as a problem. It goes against our values, as I said, it goes against our oath,” he said. “It’s important for us to reject extremism in all forms, whether that be what is often referred to as unlawful or unregulated militias, anti-government extremism, as well as extremism-based immutable traits, whether you’re talking about race or gender or ethnicity, none of it is acceptable.”
6. Chairman Menendez Announces Bipartisan Comprehensive China Legislation
Excerpt: “I am incredibly proud to announce this unprecedented bipartisan effort to mobilize all U.S. strategic, economic, and diplomatic tools for an Indo-Pacific strategy that will allow our nation to truly confront the challenges China poses to our national and economic security. The Strategic Competition Act of 2021 is a recognition that this moment demands a unified, strategic response that can rebuild American leadership, invest in our ability to out-compete China, and reground diplomacy in our core values.
7. Indo-Pacific commander Aquilino confirmed in Senate
Defense News · by Joe Gould · April 21, 2021
Excerpt: “Aquilino declined to affirm the assessment China could try to invade Taiwan in as little as six years (which outgoing commander Adm. Phil Davidson has said). However, Aquilino did say, “this problem is much closer to us than most think,” and that requires a proposed Pacific Deterrence Initiative funding pool be realized, “in the near term, and with urgency.”
A report from the command delivered last month calls for roughly $27 billion in additional spending between 2022 and 2027; with $4.6 billion for fiscal year 2022 alone. That includes a multi-billion-dollar air defense capability in Guam.”
8. The Original Sin of the War in Afghanistan
defenseone.com · by Jonah Blank
Excerpts: “The original sin of the war in Iraq was going to war in Iraq. And the original sin of the war in Afghanistan was going to war in Iraq.
…
What happens next? The U.S. has a special moral debt to the thousands of Afghans who have risked their lives in service to American military and civilian personnel, and they (like their counterparts in Iraq) should be offered the chance to emigrate if they so choose. But the much larger question is what happens to Afghanistan itself. That will be up to the Afghan people, as it always had to be. The Afghans will have to forge their future under far more difficult circumstances now than they would have if their fledgling civil society had been given, say, a decade to really take root. That breathing space could have been provided by U.S. resources that were instead pulled away for the war in Iraq.
There is a real chance that Afghanistan will return to the bloody anarchy of the 1990s. But there’s also a real chance that it won’t. As Vice President Amrullah Saleh recently noted, a generation of Afghans have grown up without the Taliban as overlords, and they won’t surrender their freedoms easily: “The fate of my country,” he said, “does not lie with the last U.S. military helicopter.” The withdrawal of American troops shouldn’t mean the withdrawal of U.S. support for a regime that, with all its (many) flaws, is the most effective government Afghanistan has had for about half a century (admittedly, a rather low bar), and the most representative it has had in its history.
9. Cost of Afghan war exceeds $2.26tn and rising
asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 21, 2021
10. How Cyber Ops Increase the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War
defenseone.com · by George Perkovich and Ariel Levite
Excerpts: “To better inform themselves, both leaderships should mandate that independent “red teams” assess the risks of sensitive cyber operations. It’s too dangerous to let the proposers or conductors of such operations review themselves. Red teaming must consider the possibility and consequences that cyber weapons may spread more than intended and could be reverse engineered for use against one’s own government, businesses, or friends.
China and the United States don’t need to wait for one another to take these steps. Doing this unilaterally, and quickly, will lower the likelihood of an accidental nuclear war that could destroy them both. Ideally, both leaderships – as representatives of great powers – will overcome their political inhibitions and agree to have adult conversations about what more they can do. The longer they wait, the greater the responsibility they will bear for the war that could come.”
11. $264B for ICBMs That Would Be Destroyed in the Ground? No, Thanks
defenseone.com · by William J. Perry and Tom Z. Collina
Conclusion: “The Biden administration and Congress should see nuclear land-based missiles for what they really are: a colossal waste of taxpayer money and a catastrophe waiting to happen. But if the political momentum for keeping ICBMs can’t be stopped, then the existing fleet of missiles can be destroyed in the ground for much less cost than buying a new fleet. There is no need to pour hundreds of billions of dollars down the ICBM money pit.”
12. At least 10 Asia Pacific gov’ts use COVID-19 for censorship, disinformation
rappler.com · by Camille Elemia · April 20, 2021
Some interesting data though I do not think it is too surprising.
13. US Nuclear Fears Are Shifting From a Clear Russian Threat to a Murkier Chinese One
defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker
Excerpts: “But the majority of the questions Richards took related to the Chinese threat. China has 350 or so nukes, less than one-tenth the active U.S. inventory of around 3,800. But he said that both China and Russia “have significant capability…to produce more warheads,” a capability that the United States does not possess.
He said that’s why China’s mysterious doctrine is so concerning and why the sort of deterrence strategies that the United States pursued during the Cold War no longer work. China, he said, could “use those capabilities coercively in a way that would limit our decision space in crisis. Additionally, it will rip out the underpinnings by which the rest of our forces are employed. We would not be able to deter China from escalating right past us if the stakes were high enough in a crisis or conflict.”
14. No Legal Objection, Per Se
warontherocks.com · by E.M. Liddick · April 21, 2021
A thought provoking essay.
15. A Bad Case of Déjà Vu
realcleardefense.com · by Thomas Spoehr
Excerpts: “Neither candidate found it advantageous to explain to the American people that, since 2014, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has been limited to training and assisting the Afghans — not fighting. But that limited mission was hugely important. Like seasoning in a stew, just a few well-placed advisors and enablers can make a big difference.
…
Afghanistan is not Iraq, but 10 years later, Austin now finds himself in a similar situation, caught between a White House determined to completely pull out of a nascent nation and military commanders—reportedly including Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and the 4-star commanders of Central Command and Afghanistan—who believe it would be a mistake.
Speaking of those senior military leaders, Austin said, “Their voices were heard and their concerns taken into consideration as the president made his decision. But now the decision has been made, I call upon them to lead their forces … through this transition.”
President Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance places a high premium on promoting democracy and for “standing behind our allies.” It’s difficult to see that guidance reflected in the decision to depart Afghanistan. And for Lloyd Austin, it must feel like déjà vu all over again.”
16. Psychological Warfare: Principles for Global Competition
Small Wars Journal · by Robert Coombs
Conclusion: “In the conduct of psychological warfare sight must never be lost of the fact that a change in attitudes and private opinions amounts to little if it fails to result in deviant, politically relevant behavior.
These principles of psychological warfare are a guide for operations and activities that desire to create behavioral and attitudinal change in foreign audiences. The guiding principles focus on creating tangible behaviors that support policy and objectives of the state. The goal of this document is to give planners and practitioners some guidelines for application of influence-based activities. It is also to place psychological warfare back into the forefront for planning operations. Defeating an enemy armor battalion, injecting a computer virus into a competitor’s network, or negotiating a bilateral agreement all bring about benefits. But, the peak of the U.S.’s capability will always be to influence a foreign nation to align their behaviors and attitudes in-line with our ideas of freedom, liberty, and justice.
17. Jetpacks give Special Forces assets the edge
asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 20, 2021
18. What is China’s Belt and Road Initiative and what were the four deals the federal government tore up?
ABC.net.au · April 22, 2021
Australia.
19. China’s Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America by Hal Brands
commentarymagazine.com · by Hal Brands · April 16, 2021
Conclusion: “Indeed, America is fully capable of squandering its advantages if it degrades or destroys its own democracy, declines to make domestic reforms and investments to maintain its competitive edge, fails to rally the overlapping coalitions needed to resist Chinese ambitions, or delays in driving the military innovation required to shore up a sagging balance in the Western Pacific. The list of hard policy problems America must urgently solve to prevail against China is itself long and formidable. And even if Washington does prevail in that rivalry, America may absorb significant setbacks—and the international order may absorb significant damage—in the process.
Yet as rough as the road ahead looks from Washington, it ought to look even rougher from Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party runs a profoundly illiberal regime that is trying to overcome centuries of liberal dominance. China is straining against a strategic geography and international system that surely seem more constraining than inviting. Chinese strategists must find a way of breaking America’s position in the Western Pacific while avoiding the potential cataclysm of major war. And Beijing is taking on a superpower that has thrashed all previous comers. Smart strategies have permitted Beijing to do remarkably well, so far, in managing these problems. But many of those strategies face an uncertain future, in part because the international complacency that allowed them to flourish has been replaced—gradually, but increasingly—with international concern.
This isn’t to say that China’s ambitions are hopeless illusions. In the coming years, there will be an intense interaction between an America that is adapting its strategies to deal with a pressing threat and a China that will have to adjust its own approaches in light of that response. Even American success in this interaction could bring new dangers: If Chinese leaders perceive that their window to achieve grand geopolitical goals is closing, then the regime could become even more aggressive in seeking to revise the global order while it still can.
Much thus hinges on the quality of decisions made in Washington and other capitals around the world. But the fact that so many characteristics of modern great-power politics seem to favor the United States probably gives the reigning superpower better options and more room for error than its autocratic challenger. Nothing is predetermined: Beijing may still succeed in displacing the United States as the primary power in Asia and, eventually, the world. Yet if it does, that outcome will represent a catastrophic failure of American statecraft—or an awesome triumph of Chinese strategy in overcoming the great obstacles that litter Beijing’s path to hegemony.
20. Today’s Generals and Admirals: What Has Happened to our Senior Military Officers?
standupamericaus.org · by Paul Vallely
A general critiques the generals.
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“And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.”
– Thomas Jefferson, Letters of Thomas Jefferson
“You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man’s age-old dream — the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order –or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. Regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would sacrifice freedom for security have embarked on this downward path.”
– Ronald Reagan
“Democracy is a poor system; the only thing that can be said for it is that it’s eight times as good as any other method.”
– Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land