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02/15/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

  |  
02.15.2021 at 04:52pm

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Freedom and Alliance in Jeopardy in South Korea: An Insider’s Testimony By Inho Lee

2. Korea ‘Not Ready’ to Take over Troop Control in Wartime

3. U.S., Korea ‘Nearing Agreement’ on USFK Cost-Sharing

4. Moon says S. Korea-U.S. alliance crucial for Korea peace process

5. South Korea has few options to calm North Korea over combined drill

6. S. Korea closely monitoring N.K. moves ahead of late leader’s birthday: JCS

7. U.S. military surveillance concentrates on Korean Peninsula

8. S. Korea should prioritize improving its relations with Japan, says gov. official

9. Linchpin and cornerstone (Korea and Japan)

10. Group of North Koreans caught trying to defect North Korea by boat

11. North Korea to dispatch up to 10,000 workers to Russia from March

12. Top nuke envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold phone talks on peninsula peace, denuclearization

13. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act FAQs

14. South Korea: United Nations Command, the Bête Noire of Alliance Management

15. UNC considering resuming tours to Panmunjom amid eased social distancing scheme

16. New Korea-US alliance should tackle global climate emergency

17. Former South Korean coastguard chief acquitted over ferry sinking

 

1. Freedom and Alliance in Jeopardy in South Korea: An Insider’s Testimony By Inho Lee

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/freedom-and-alliance-jeopardy-south-korea-insiders-testimony by Inho Lee

A very provocative essay that will be quite controversial. Ambassador Lee; however, is well qualified to express her thoughts on this very complex and difficult subject.

 

2.  Korea ‘Not Ready’ to Take over Troop Control in Wartime

english.chosun.com

A couple of points. The US does not exercise wartime command of Korean troops just as after the OPCON transition is complete the ROK government will not exercise wartime command of US troops. After OPCON transition the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command will be commanded by a Korean general officer with a US general officer as his or her deputy commander. The Commander will answer to the ROK/US MIlitary Committee which is made up of representatives of both nations national command and military authorities which provides strategic guidance and oversight of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. Just as every US commander has stated since 1978 he works for both the President of the US and the President of Korea. The new Korean commander will say the same. OPCON is not passing from Washington to Seol. Both Washington and Seoul will continue to “own” the ROK/US CFC as co-equals as they do now. This is perhaps the biggest misunderstanding of the press, pundits, politicos, and people in both South Korea and the US. The command relationships and OPCON transition process are complex and nuanced and little has been done to explain this to the various audiences.

Setting a deadline for OPCON transition is dangerous. There is only one reason for a conditions based OPCON transition process and that is to ensure the security of the ROK is maintained. If the transition occurs on a timeline without having met the necessary conditions, then the security of the ROK, including the safety of the Korean people, will be at grave risk.  While political considerations will always be paramount for political leaders, military personnel and national security practitioners will counsel that security considerations must be factored into any decision and they will argue to ensure the conditions for OPCON transition are met for the good of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance. But ultimately they understand that the decision on OPCON transition will be made by political leaders in both the ROK and the US.

China does not get a vote in security issues of the ROK/US alliance. China would like to see an end of the ROK/US alliance and the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula just as north Korea would. China should be factored in with the consideration that it does not care whether OPCON transition occurs, it would only like to see as much alliance friction as possible because that is to the benefit of both China and north Korea. It is imperative that during the OPCON transition process the ROK and US place the strength of the alliance as the priority. To do otherwise plays into the hands of China.

Lastly I would say the OPCON transition process is like the genie that cannot be put back in the lamp or the toothpaste that cannot be put back in the tube. To stop the process would damage the alliance. OPCON transition can occur, it should occur, and it must occur for a large number of reasons, namely because it is the natural evolution of the alliance, there is a great amount of trust between the two militaries, the ROK military has evolved to the point where it is capability of numerous independent warfighting capabilities, it will be an example for other US alliance partners, and most importantly any contingency that takes place in north Korea should be led by a Korean general because the regardless of whether the north attacks the South or the regime collapses the follow-on operations in north Korea will require military support to the Korean unification process and this must be led by a Korean commander of the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command.

What is required for OPCON transition to be successful is for decisive and strong leadership not only among the ROK and US military leadership but also the political leaders of both countries. The political leaders must listen to and heed the advice of their military leaders and prioritize the security of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance over politics. However, I know that is a naive statement.

 

3. U.S., Korea ‘Nearing Agreement’ on USFK Cost-Sharing

english.chosun.com

Hopefully this will be a five year agreement. Let’s make sure we have the supporting information and public affairs campaign to support the successful conclusion of the negotiations.  Something along these lines for the American public:  Korea pays more for its defense as a percentage of its GDP than any US NATO ally, about 2.7%. It is increasing defense spending by nearly 8%. When the SMA negotiation is concluded it will pay approximately $1 billion for US stationing costs (more than 50%) and separate from the SMA requirements it paid 93% of the $10.3 billion of the cost to build the largest US military base outside of CONUS. Furthermore it is purchasing advanced US military equipment to the tune of about $20 billion (to include the F35) which is important for the US defense industry and jobs for the American people. However, and mostly importantly, the alliance rests on the foundations of shared interests, shared values, shared strategy, and the mutual defense of both countries from threats in the Asia Pacific region as per the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty.

 

4. Moon says S. Korea-U.S. alliance crucial for Korea peace process

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · February 15, 2021

This headline is good to read. Actions speak louder than words. We have to get our strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime sufficiently aligned for the good of the alliance.

Note this: “Moon pointed out that Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong is an architect of his liberal administration’s diplomatic and security policy as the president gave him a letter of appointment.”

 

5. South Korea has few options to calm North Korea over combined drill

The Korea Times · February 15, 2021

First we have to understand there is nothing that will “calm” north Korea over ROK/US combined training. We have to understand the regime’s strategy part of which is to divide to conquer – divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK. No matter what we do the regime will exploit it for propaganda purposes and to try to drive a wedge in the alliance especially because it sees the different views the Biden and Moon administration have toward strength and security and peace at any cost and appeasement. 

The way to handle this is to all conduct robust combined training to ensure the readiness of the combined military to deter attack, defend the ROK, and if the north miscalculates and attacks the South to support its strategy to dominate the peninsula, to defeat the nKPA. We should allow the north to bluster and saber rattle but we should not back down from doing what is absolutely necessary to ensure readiness as well as to contribute to the ongoing conditions based OPCON transition process.

We need to get over the fact that the regime will try to exploit our combined training not not succumb to the naive views that cancelling or reducing training will somehow positively influence KJU. It will only embolden him to double down on his blackmail diplomacy because our appeasement of him shows that his political warfare strategy works.

And we should not forget the nKPA is conducting its annual winter training cycle to bring its forces to the highest state of readiness for offensive operations at the optimal attack time of March.

 

6. S. Korea closely monitoring N.K. moves ahead of late leader’s birthday: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 15, 2021

Of course there could be a birthday surprise for us. The north is masterful at denial and deception so we may not see the indicators before any kind of event. However, I do not think Kim is in a position to exploit any kind of provocation. He probably assesses he will not be able to achieve the effects he desires at this time given the current internal situation in north Korea and the surrounding geopolitical conditions.

 

7. U.S. military surveillance concentrates on Korean Peninsula

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Prudent military and intelligence activities.

 

8.  S. Korea should prioritize improving its relations with Japan, says gov. official

donga.com – 15 February 2021

We need to hear this from Moon, Chung, and Suh and not just some government official.

 

9.  Linchpin and cornerstone (Korea and Japan)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

This is why Moon and Suga must act decisively to prioritize national security and national prosperity while pledging to manage the historical issues.

Excerpt:

A plan for Korea-Japan military cooperation can be a possible solution. After the Korean War, Japan served as the rear base of the U.S. and UN troops. The country plays a crucial role in the combined operational posture against the North’s military threats. U.S. Forces Korea is mainly Army troops, while U.S. Forces Japan are naval, air and marine troops. Due to the distinct makeup, they cannot be separated strategically. That is why both Donald Trump’s administration and the Biden administration treat Korea-Japan-U.S. security cooperation importantly.

 

10.  Group of North Koreans caught trying to defect North Korea by boat

dailynk.com – by Jong So Yong – February 15, 2021

As I recall from our naval experts when we were conducting contingency planning for north Korean instability and collapse, to include refugee considerations, it would take about five days for an unpowered vessel to drift from the east coast of north Korea to Japan.

But to get to South Korea it requires a powered boat and the ability to evade north Korean maritime patrols. This seems like pure bad luck for these Koreans trying to escape from the north:

Afterwards, they took turns standing guard over the ship and made every effort to avoid being discovered, and later managed to reach the inter-Korean maritime border. However, their boat, which had hitherto been operating without a hitch, suddenly broke down. In the process of hurriedly fixing the boat, they reportedly let down their guard.

“[The crew] was prepared to jump into the sea with their life jackets on if they were discovered, but because they were focusing on repairing the boat, they didn’t even know that the patrol ships were approaching,” the source told Daily NK.

 

11. North Korea to dispatch up to 10,000 workers to Russia from March

dailynk.com – by Jang Seul Gi – February 14, 2021

Is this in violation of the UN resolution banning the use of north Korean slave labor overseas?

 

12.  Top nuke envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold phone talks on peninsula peace, denuclearization

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 15, 2021

Some good news. The ROK and Japan must also align their strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

13. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act FAQs

dhs.gov · February 11, 2021

Useful background on US sanctions for Iran, Russia, and north Korea.

 

14.  South Korea: United Nations Command, the Bête Noire of Alliance Management

thediplomat.com · February 12, 2021

A useful overview and he identifies some of the important issues that South Koreans have with United Nations Command (some of which are conspiracy theory like).

He misses two points. Since South Korea is a sovereign nation it could ask the UNC to leave at any time. Of course, that would have serious consequences for the ROK/US alliance and it would be a huge strategic error on the part of the ROKG, nonetheless if the ROKG asked the UNC to leave there is no mechanism that could force the South to allow its continued presence.

Second, the Mutual Defense Treaty is far more important to the security of the ROK than the Armistice. The Armistice was simply a military agreement that did five basic things:

* A suspension of open hostilities

* A fixed demarcation line with a 4km (2.4 miles) buffer zone – the so-called demilitarized zone (DMZ)

* A mechanism for the transfer of prisoners of war

Both sides pledged not to “execute any hostile act within, from, or against the demilitarized zone”, or enter areas under control of the other.

The agreement also called for the establishment of the Military Armistice Commission (MAC) and other agencies to ensure the truce held.

In paragraph 60 it also called on parties to come together within 90 days to solve the “Korea question” which is interpreted as the unnatural division of the peninsula.

If hostilities resume it is the Mutual Defense treaty and the ROK/US Combined Forces command that will be the center of gravity and main effort. The author rightly points out the importance of the UNC as an international force provider. But unlike during the Korean War it will not be the main warfighting HQ. The force provider role will be greater in the manpower intensive war that will likely be fought because of the demographic challenge the ROK faces and the declining size of military age males available for conscription and thus the declining size of the ROK Army.

 

15. UNC considering resuming tours to Panmunjom amid eased social distancing scheme

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 15, 2021

 

16.  New Korea-US alliance should tackle global climate emergency

The Korea Times · February 15, 2021

Hmmm…

 

17. Former South Korean coastguard chief acquitted over ferry sinking

channelnewsasia.com

 

 

“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.”

 – George Washington, George Washington’s Farewell Address

 

“Character is like a tree and reputation its shadow. The shadow is what we think it is and the tree is the real thing.”

– Abraham Lincoln

 

“There are men and women who make the world better just by being the kind of people they are. They have the gift of kindness or courage or loyalty or integrity. It really matters very little whether they are behind the wheel of a truck or running a business or bringing up a family. They teach the truth by living it.” 

– James Garfield (1831–1881)

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