08/22/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. [Editorial] Consultative mechanism (ROK/US)
2. Despite delegated power, Kim Yo Jong fails to make appearance
3. Highlights of North Korea’s Latest Party Meetings: Setting a New Agenda
4. Sanctions on North Korea: An interview with Joshua Stanton
5. N. Korean newspaper urges conservation of electricity amid chronic power shortage
6. S. Korea approves aid group’s plan to send protective clothing to N. Korea
7. Unification minister renews calls for inter-Korean cooperation against disasters
8. Delegation of power by Kim Jong-un a show of confidence: experts
9. Annual reserve forces’ training called off due to COVID-19 (South Korea)
10. South Korea’s plans to reform National Intelligence Service highlight ideological divisions
11. Unprecedented Glimpse of Crisis in North Korea
12. S. Korea braces for nationwide epidemic, expands stricter social distancing rules
13. Top S. Korean, Chinese officials have ‘good’ and ‘enough’ discussions, no announcement on Xi’s visit
14. Xi to visit S. Korea after coronavirus situation is ‘stabilized,’ top officials agree
15. Former aide to ex-president claims NK leader in coma
1. [Editorial] Consultative mechanism (ROK/US)
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · August 20, 2020
Two points: The editorial board gets it right. The ROK/US strategy working group does not hinder intra-Korea relations. It is the north that hinders relations.
Second, the recent US Army manual on north Korean tactics is turning out to be quite influential. The Korean press is now regularly citing it for the 60 north Korean nuclear warheads and that the north has the 3d largest chemical weapons stockpile.
Excerpts:
“It is a misperception that the working group has acted as a roadblock to closer inter-Korean cooperation. The truth is that Pyongyang’s insistence on sanctions relief and other concessions without dismantling its nuclear arsenal has blocked progress on inter-Korean reconciliation.”
“North Korea is now believed to have as many as 60 nuclear bombs and the world’s third-largest stockpile of chemical agents — an estimated 5,000 tons, according to a report released last month by the US Army. Pyongyang is unlikely to abandon these weapons, which it believes are essential to the survival of the isolated regime.”
“The North has ignored all proposals made so far by the Moon administration, which it sees as far from satisfactory.”
2. Despite delegated power, Kim Yo Jong fails to make appearance
donga.com · August 22, 2020
The guessing game continues.
3. Highlights of North Korea’s Latest Party Meetings: Setting a New Agenda
Economy and uncertainty.
4. Sanctions on North Korea: An interview with Joshua Stanton
dailynk.com · Joshua Stanton ·August 21, 2020
Very comprehensive interview. Josh covers a lot of ground. Of course, he is critical of our sanctions enforcement. He says our weak enforcement is the cause of failure and that we need sanctions to bring the regime to the table the way sanctions brought Iran to the table. Although it may seem like splitting hairs but while I believe external pressure (sanctions and much more, to include influence operations) is critically important, they are not sufficient to bring Kim to the negotiating table. What really must force a change to the regime’s calculus is internal pressure from the regime elite and military. Again, we can say that our insufficient enforcement is a failure, we should also realize that our steadfast resolve not to lift sanctions has caused Kim Jong-un to be the real failure in the eyes of the elite and the military. This is key to the way forward. Our resolve to commit to current sanctions will continue to generate the necessary internal pressure but also is the best chance of undermining the regime’s blackmail diplomacy. Once we make a concession, Kim will double down on blackmail diplomacy – coercion and extortion.
Also, note Josh’s comments about humanitarian assistance. And most important note his analysis of the Ministry of Unification plans for barter. He suspects (with good cause) that the Koryo Kaesong Ginseng Trading Company for Officer 39.
5. N. Korean newspaper urges conservation of electricity amid chronic power shortage
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 21, 2020
We really do have to be observing for indications and warnings of instability as well as potential miscalculation by the regime in the face of multiple crises.
6. S. Korea approves aid group’s plan to send protective clothing to N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 21, 2020
The key point: “It is unclear whether the North will accept aid from such civilian organizations amid chilly inter-Korean relations.”
7. Unification minister renews calls for inter-Korean cooperation against disasters
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 21, 2020
The MOU should focus on this (well actually my recommendation would be the MOU actually focused on planning and preparing for unification that results in a United Republic of Korea (UROK))
8. Delegation of power by Kim Jong-un a show of confidence: experts
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · August 21, 2020
First, I think the NIS assessment must be taken with a grain of salt. Second, if the assessment is accurate that Kim Yo-jong is being given some of the reins of power I am not sure it indicates strength and confidence. I think this “new arrangement” is not normal for the regime and therefore it is more likely an indication of extreme internal stress and problems (perhaps KIm Jong-un’s poor health). And if this new arrangement is a reality it could very well increase the possibility of miscalculation. The regime is not designed to operate in any way other than one man (or perhaps woman) rule. Again, this could lead to dangerous decision making.
9. Annual reserve forces’ training called off due to COVID-19 (South Korea)
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · August 21, 2020
For the way ahead and due to the changing demographics with the reduction of military manpower, the ROK needs to invest in a strong reserve component.
10. South Korea’s plans to reform National Intelligence Service highlight ideological divisions
SCMP · by John Power · August 22, 2020
A storied organization with an “interesting” history going back to the KCIA.
Critics want the NIS to move forward in the national interest. I would bet if you asked both the leadership and members of the NIS they would always say their work is conducted in the national interest.
11. Unprecedented Glimpse of Crisis in North Korea
hrw.org · by John Sifton · August 21, 2020
Multiple crises. As I have said and will continue to write, this is a time for possible miscalculation by the regime. And we also have to be watchful for the indications and warnings of instability. But the problem is in the title – sometimes we can only see ‘glimpses” of what is happening inside north Korea. These crises could create a perfect storm.
My new favorite line (after you cannot eat Juche) is from the article below; “You can’t eat a parade.” But the regime sure loves its parades.
12. S. Korea braces for nationwide epidemic, expands stricter social distancing rules
en.yna.co.kr · by 우재연 · August 22, 2020
This is certainly worrisome.
13. Top S. Korean, Chinese officials have ‘good’ and ‘enough’ discussions, no announcement on Xi’s visit
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 22, 2020
So the discussions were just good enough?
14. Xi to visit S. Korea after coronavirus situation is ‘stabilized,’ top officials agree
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 22, 2020
That could be a long time in the future.
15. Former aide to ex-president claims NK leader in coma
koreaherald.com · by Choi He-Suk · August 21, 2020
Here we go again. There is no substance to this “report.”
———-
“Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.”
– Mark Twain
“No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance.”
– Alan Bullock, British historian
“Perhaps the most important lesson from Game Theory is that in business, war, or any competitive enterprise, one must anticipate his opponent’s strategy before developing one’s own strategy.”
– Geoffrey Goff