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7/20/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

  |  
07.21.2020 at 01:13pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs discuss combined exercises, defense cost-sharing

2. No discussions on USFK troop reduction during S. Korea-U.S. defense chiefs’ talks

3. Coronavirus Surge Forces Downsizing in S.Korea-U.S. Drills

4. Coronavirus complicates South Korea, U.S. military exercises

5. Moon’s North Korea vision up in smoke? Not so fast …

6. Could Donald Trump and North Korea Sign A Pre-Election Nuclear Deal?

7. The Trump administration has squandered its shot with North Korea

8. North Korea Proceeds Down a Nuclear Path

9. Trump Has Damaged the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Alliance-And China Loves It

10. Will North Korea’s Nukes Spur Japan To Develop First-Strike Missiles?

11. Unification Ministry rejects UNC’s request to use Freedom House

12. S. Korea closely consulting with U.S. to seek ‘creative solution’ to resuming Mt. Kumgang tour: ministry

13. North Hwanghae Province couple arrested for “anti-socialist conduct”

14. U.N. grants sanctions waiver for S. Korean NGO’s assistance efforts in N. Korea

15. Why Was North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Angry For 2 Consecutive Days?

16. Korea Sticks to Paying Bills for Foreign Coronavirus Patients

17. Korea’s military gets its own satellite in space

18. Why are fewer students attending N. Korean elementary schools than before?

19. U.S. considers withdrawing its forces from overseas bases

 

1. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs discuss combined exercises, defense cost-sharing

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 21, 2020

These must have been very uncomfortable and tense talks.  On the other hand military professionals can work through the political friction within the alliance.

 

2. No discussions on USFK troop reduction during S. Korea-U.S. defense chiefs’ talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · July 21, 2020

Congress is watching.  Prior to withdrawal the 2020 NDAA requires consultation with allies and the certification by the SECDEF that the withdrawal will not harm US or allied security interests.

But I am sure the Minister and Secretary did not want to broach this subject.

 

3. Coronavirus Surge Forces Downsizing in S.Korea-U.S. Drills

english.chosun.com

As I understand it many of the CONUS personnel who support the exercise are already quarantined in Korea their 14 days before they can begin exercise preparations.

 

4. Coronavirus complicates South Korea, U.S. military exercises

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin· July 21, 2020

The coronavirus is having an effect on readiness.  On the other hand this is a contingency that must be worked through.  What if we did have to fight tonight? Or what if instability or regime collapse occurred under these conditions (the army will have to rewrite its famed “task, conditions, standards” training concept to include operating in a coronavirus environment – which of course is operating in a biological hazard environment which frankly we have always paid lip service to. We are going to have to be ready to fight through this virus if something happens on the peninsula.

 

5. Moon’s North Korea vision up in smoke? Not so fast …

lowyinstitute.org · by Soo Kim

So is a “small deal” only doubling down by half?  I wonder what a small deal entails? Most importantly what does a small deal achieve and how does it affect the security of the ROK?  Soo Kim provides excellent analysis.

But it should be clear by President Moon’s personnel elections where his policy is heading.

 

6. Could Donald Trump and North Korea Sign A Pre-Election Nuclear Deal?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · July 20, 2020

I do not see how.  Based on the apparent lack of working level negotiations this would likely be nothing more than a Singapore summit statement with no substance.

It might be nothing more than a signed paper saying what Kim has already done – a pledge not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs.  I do worry though given the talk about US troop withdrawals that perhaps the president thinks he can make a trade.  I know all his advisers must be against this as this would be a strategic blunder well beyond Carter and Acheson and the president’s legacy would be that he would be responsible for resume hostilities or what will be called the Second Korean War which will have not only devastating effects on the peninsula but will cause a worldwide economic crisis at the very least.

 

7. The Trump administration has squandered its shot with North Korea

Washington Examiner · by Bonnie Kristian · July 20, 2020

Sigh….Yes we can blame the president for his unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.  But that fails to recognize Kim Jong-un’s role in all of this. You could not buy off Kim Jong-un.  There is not enough money we could offer him to give up his nuclear weapons. He has a long term strategy that he is hell-bent on executing and nuclear weapons are a key component to the strategy. All the critics need to factor this in when they criticize any and every administration for the failure to denuclearize the north.  I hate to be a dead horse but I will say it again: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and security threats from the north as well as the human rights abuses and the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on freedom and individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

8. North Korea Proceeds Down a Nuclear Path

38 NORTH  July 20, 2020

My question is did Kim Jong-un ever stray from the “nuclear path?”  Did he ever have any intention of giving up his nuclear weapons (and ICBMs)?

 

 9. Trump Has Damaged the U.S.-Japan-South Korea Alliance-And China Loves It

The National Interest · by Gene Park and Mieczysław Boduszynski · July 20, 2020

There is blame on all three sides. We have been through rough patches before and we have worked through them.  And we will do so again.  And yes the only country that wants to see a split in the ROK/US alliance and especially in the trilateral relationship more than north Korea is China.  Recall that one of the demands of Xi made to Moon was not only no more THAAD deployments to Korea and no participation in an integrated missile defense system, was an agreement there would be no trilateral alliance.  A trilateral alliance would probably send shockwaves through Beijing.

 

10. Will North Korea’s Nukes Spur Japan To Develop First-Strike Missiles?

Forbes · by Michael Peck · July 20, 2020

It will be interesting to see how this plays out in Japanese politics.  Can Abe and his successors generate the political will for offensive operations?  Or will they be able to couch a first strike capability as a defensive measure?  

 

11. Unification Ministry rejects UNC’s request to use Freedom House

donga.com· July 21, 2020

This is not unprecedented.  You would think the ROK and US would want to jointly recognize the Armistice.  But this is one indication of the friction within the alliance and the Ministry of Unification not only does not want to do anything to support the alliance it balmes the US for the engagement failures (because it refuses to blame Kim Jong-un who is really responsible).  Furthemore, the MOU likely does not want to “celebrate” the Armistice as it views it as an impediment to its policies and vision for engagement with the north.

 

12. S. Korea closely consulting with U.S. to seek ‘creative solution’ to resuming Mt. Kumgang tour: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 21, 2020

This is probably doable if the South can guarantee that no funds will go to support Kim Jong-un and his royal court economy.  

I would like to hear a thorough analysis from the Ministry of Unification on what reopening Mt Kumgang will achieve? What effects is the MOU trying to achieve? 

 

13. North Hwanghae Province couple arrested for “anti-socialist conduct”

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong  · July 21, 2020

You have to give this couple credit.  Since all property is owned by the party in the north they were selling the regime’s property or property that was not theirs.  These had to be some creative real estate agents. Here is their list of crimes: “…illegally buying and selling state-owned houses to amass wealth over a long period of time; conspiring with employees of national agencies to conduct real estate transactions and build a large house; and, employing the services of a housekeeper.”  I wonder what happens to the people who bought houses from them?  Are they being punished as well?  They have been getting away with this for 10 years so I imagine there are some number of families living in illegally bought houses.  And as noted all those living in large houses and employing housekeepers are “shaking in their boots.”

 

14. U.N. grants sanctions waiver for S. Korean NGO’s assistance efforts in N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 21, 2020

 

15. Why Was North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Angry For 2 Consecutive Days?

ibtimes.sg · by Bhaswati Guha Majumder · July 21, 2020

I know people who have been angry for more than two days.  Anyone been married?  But I love this speculation, “It was not clear what was bothering the north Korean dictator.”  As if we can really know the inner workings of the regime and what is actually on Kim Jong-un’s mind.

 

16. Korea Sticks to Paying Bills for Foreign Coronavirus Patients

english.chosun.com

 

17. Korea’s military gets its own satellite in space

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Shim Kyu-Seok · July 21, 2020

 

18. Why are fewer students attending N. Korean elementary schools than before?

dailynk.com · Kim Yoo Jin · July 21, 2020

Another human rights tragedy.  Why do people have to pay for school in the Socialist Workers Paradise? Why do they have to contribute money to construction projects?

But think about the long term implications for the north and its people if children are not being educated.  This will have an impact on the eventual unification process (just as the stunted growth of people due to widespread malnourishment).

 

19. U.S. considers withdrawing its forces from overseas bases

donga.com· July 21, 2020

The editorial board knows this is more than about Korea. I wonder if we see some kind of announcement in the next few months about a decision to bring home a large number of troops from overseas locations. 

 

———

 

“In a way you’re writing your own obit every day. You’re making the lead paragraph positive and constructive, or not. Someone’s going to sum you up one day. You want to live your professional life in a way that they can write good things.”

– Peggy Noonan

 

“May we think of freedom, not as the right to do as we please, but as the opportunity to do what is right.”

– Peter Marshall

 

“We fight not for glory, nor for wealth, nor honour but only and alone for freedom which no good man surrenders but with his life.”

– Robert the Bruce

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