NATO Needs to Move Now on Crimea
NATO Needs to Move Now on Crimea by Admiral James Stavridis (Ret), Foreign Policy
… Hopefully, there can be high-level diplomatic discussions at the United Nations, European Union, and other international organizations that will lead to full territorial integrity of the sovereign state of Ukraine. And the state of the Russian Black Sea fleet has to be sensibly resolved, as do important trading and energy relations. The hope is that cooler heads will prevail.
However, hope is not a strategy, and therefore further action should be considered. Planning is vital to laying out options to decision makers, and NATO's military planners should have a busy weekend at least.
This is a classic case of a situation where the United States should be working in lock step with our allies around the world, but especially our European friends and most notably the 28 members of the NATO alliance…
So apparently some people, usually older retired military leaders, cannot for the life of them understand that we’ve somehow gotten out of the Cold War. They missed the entirety of the 1990s and 2000s (maybe they were so wrapped up in the non-state actor and COIN craze that it simply, unbeknownst to them, passed them by) and all they can do is look at the world still as if it was Brzezinski’s Grand Chessboard. All they can do is come up with narratives and reactions like it was 1962.
Russia isn’t playing a chess game; they’re securing their interests. The same as we do in Afghanistan and elsewhere (although our interests in Afghanistan are entirely artificial; those of Moscow in Crimea are most definitely tangible). So far nothing warrants NATO getting all up in arms and certainly nothing warrants direct reaction to Moscow at the moment. Talk, yes. Cautionary warnings, yes. But bluster, NATO ‘response,’ and sanction? No. This could all change but, at the moment, what we’re seeing now is Russia actually taking rational, graduated, and non-hostile steps to secure their local interests. Strict ROEs and commander’s guidance seem to be in place and what Russia is securing in the Crimea makes sense; government buildings, ports of embarkation/debarkation, access to airfields and bases, etc. They will not allow a repeat of Euromaidan in the Crimea so near the Black Sea Fleet where there are over 20,000 Russians and 40+ Russian Navy ships. If Ukraine won’t secure the area the Russians will and this shouldn’t surprise anyone. Unless you’re a Cold Warrior looking to pick up the chess pieces again.
All the talk of “invasion” and “use of force” is not helpful and not warranted. And articles like the below are wildly out of place and counterproductive in 2014.
NATO must not interfere with sending troops to Ukraine. Otherwise, they will be met with Russian lead and could be the start of WW3.
My sense of it that Jim Stavridis is not advocating direct military action but only stepping-up NATO’s readiness posture as would be prudent in any crisis on NATO’s doorstep.
After all, likely forgotten about by many is the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 by the Ukraine, Russia, the U.S., and the U.K., which although isn’t a formal treaty, all signatories did promise none of them would ever threaten or use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the Ukraine.
It is interesting to me that no one has brought up the Memorandum and presented it to Putin, the Ukraine’s historic part of Russia’s near abroad aside, and demanded he make a casus belli for Russia’s current action?
It is hard to take Admiral Stavridis serious as a credible, non-biased perspective on this matter. After all, it was under his leadership that much of the vast expansion of NATO, and subsequent compression of the Russian sphere of influence, took place. As more established members of NATO quickly grew weary of supporting US operations in Afghanistan, there was a rush to bring in new members willing to lend their support to virtually anything in exchange for the perceived protection from Russian influence that such membership would bring.
So many in the West could only see goodness in expanding NATO into the former Warsaw Pact. Even Secretary Clinton publicly stated that “the US does not recognize spheres of influence.” Great, we can not recognize that the world is round or that gravity exists – but that does not make our position reality. Sam Huntington wisely observed, that the US would be better severed “…to recognize the world as it actually is.” Very true. Yet we persist in seeing the world through a US lens. Apparently the fusion of red, white and blue combines to form a rose colored hue…
Ukraine and the Crimea are very much within Russia’s sphere of influence. That does not mean that those places and those people do not have sovereign rights, it simply means that Russia will always perceive it to be well within their vital national interests to maintain influence over the context of how that sovereignty will manifest. The US must recognize that fact and take it seriously in our calculations as to how we play this hand. To do otherwise is to risk looking unsophisticated and foolish on the low end, to forcing a war in Europe of unpredictable consequence on the high end.
Russia needs red lines. They also need their sphere of influence. The sooner the US and NATO learn how to do facilitate and enforce both, the better – but an ever expanding NATO as that redline is a recipe for war.
Rick/Robert—this is what I mean when we go down the path of changing borders simply based on ethnicity and languages especially languages or what I now call the Putin Doctrine.
It has nothing to do with “spheres of influence” it is all about “Real Politik” and all about expanding the Russian empire back to the Soviet days.
Really read between the lines on this Russian coming planned parliament decision. AND really read the next to last sentence which shows how they understand previous political issues ie Georgia and Moldavia needed to be changed to match now the Ukrainian Russian areas.
This sentence truly reflects Putins’ thinking and again it has nothing to do with an alleged “sphere of influence.
February 28, 2014
Russian lawmakers say they plan to submit a bill to parliament that would make it easier for new territories to join the Russian Federation.
Mikhail Yemelyanov, a leader of the A Just Russia party, said the move was necessary because of the “unpredictable” situation in Ukraine.
He said that, under the proposed bill, a territory would be able to join the Russian Federation on the basis of a referendum or a decision of its parliament.
Russia’s “Kommersant” says that, currently, a foreign country or part of it can join the Russian Federation “with the mutual consent of the Russian Federation and this foreign state,” confirmed by an international treaty.
This is now showing that DC might in fact understand the economic trigger—initially the Russians waved/laughed off this potential response but now there is quietness coming out of Russia and Putin as this will sit hard as the Rubel is in fact dropping badly and the economy really struggling if not slumping and will continue to slump and he badly needs foreign investment—even his gas weapon is slumping as the EU/Ukraine are sitting on massive built up reserves due to a mild winter so turning off the gas will have no immediate impact on anyone.
Now the interesting question is how Putin weights his response—– is he “willing” to have a hallow victory over the Ukraine to establish his Russian empire or he is willing to really risk an economic failure of major proportions which might in fact threaten the entire political system driving the population to the streets just as they did in Kiev since there is now an example for the Russian population in how to deal with an arrogant leadership.
From DoS Sec Kerry today:
“Western powers are prepared “to go to the hilt” to isolate Russia for its military incursion into Ukraine, “an incredible act of aggression” that may lead to visa bans, asset freezes, trade and investment penalties, and a boycott of a Russian-hosted economic summit of global powers in June, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
“They’re prepared to put sanctions in place. They’re prepared to isolate Russia economically. The ruble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges. I can’t imagine that an occupation of another country is something that appeals to a people who are trying to reach out to the world, and particularly if it involves violence,” Kerry said.
Kerry also mentioned visa bans, the freezing of Russian assets, trade and investment penalties. He suggested American companies “may well want to start thinking twice about whether they want to do business with a country that behaves like this.”
For those that speak Russian this propaganda link is a telling example of how the Russian population is being feed some really dumb comments from Kiev and the Ukraine by the KGB/FSB.
http://russian.rt.com/
By the way check again the Russian parliament war decision which states the Putin can in fact invade all of the Ukraine just not only areas with Russians.
It is though not saying that on the RT website to it’s own population.
Anti war demos broke out in Moscow today with public arrests that made it to the social media sites and some radio commenters are voicing a rejection of a war with the Ukraine which is by the way of the same religion and Slavic.
This SWJ article now posted hits the problem directly on the head.
https://medium.com/the-bridge/2c942c6dd47f
Romania and Bulgaria are now signaling their concerns today about the Russian actions—we are getting somewhere close to and or near in the coming days to NATOs Article 5 of self defense.
Stumbling into 1914? —just what was Putin thinking—I personally think he miscalculated the response and that the US/NATO/EU would be slow and or not respond as they are now responding. Especially since the whole world saw the blatant “lie” of no Russian troops disappear with social media as well as did the “mistreated Russians by Ukrainians” excuse. Social media does have its advantages these days.
To have a result of your chess moves in this play called, raised, and your economical demise brought into play is something he did not play through.
Failure to personally understand your weak points is not Putin’s greatest
strength.
Since when has “doing nothing” ever been on the cards? Darn near everyone has been meddling non-stop since the end of the Cold War.
No one has handled this moment well. Not the Russians. Not the post Cold War expansionist NATOists. Not even the EU, although there is more sense there than in the current administration with its R2P and liberal interventionist DC children-masquerading-as-adults.
– Robert Gates, Duty.
Well, I doubt neighbors view Russia as non-threatening but to compare this Russia–even with its nuclear weapons and authoritarian streak–to the old Soviet Union is almost an insult to the memory of the victims of communism. On the other hand, I understand regional fears, I can understand the fears on all sides which is why I don’t understand DC’s constant need to stir the pot.
And Europe today is not post WWII Europe in the immediate aftermath, even with the current economic problems. Why do some in the US persist in acting as if it is 1985, not 2014, and as if American security runs through Eastern Europe? Let the Europeans handle themselves, they are fit, able and capable. What percentage of world GDP does Europe command again?
Now do some of you see what I have been talking about all these years on this blog, especially in relation to our Afghan campaign? Everytime we try and set an independent course, we get sucked back in to Europe or its perceived “underbelly”, the Middle East. And yes, it is the fault of certain factions within our system, I am sure plenty in Europe would prefer that we stay out of it, except when some would like to play us off against those in the system that want us out. And how is this stabilizing, this constant turmoil between various European factions and how they combine with the various American domestic constituencies?
I fear this article may be escalatory in its rhetoric but maybe I am misreading it. It’s back to the old Cold War brinksmanship, is it? Or am I misunderstanding?
The US has been involved via its democracy promotion “regime change-lite” programs in the internal affairs of many nations. It was bound to rebound in conjunction with the various internal fault lines of others.
Based on WikiLeaks US Embassy Cables from the Ukraine reviewed/reported on by Slate.com —it appears that since 2006 this was being voiced as a potential Russian move and how the Russians were building internally for it—but no one then knew how to slow it down and or stop it.
WikiLeaks does on occasions have some good background DoS Cables.
– Pundita stumbles across Meddler’s Inc., aka New Atlantic Initiative, Jan 27, 2005 blog post.
Well, Bush’s democracy doctrine turned out to be a disaster but that doesn’t mean the post doesn’t have some merit.
Oh, by the way, if some things don’t make sense in South Asia regarding American policy, well, just look at the community that views Eastern Europe as central to US security interests. That’s all that crew ever cares about.
If you want to go down a particularly worrying rabbit-hole, look up IMF-2008-Ukraine, and, the following:
– Source Watch
A kinda sorta Regime Change Inc and the State Department are pretty much the same thing, it sometimes seems….
Tufts, Council on Foreign Relations, the post Cold War Atlanticists, the IMF, international banking, you don’t have to be a paranoid like me to see that the surface is not the whole story.
Outlaw 09:
You are doing a wonderful job with all your comments. It is like getting an education for free. It’s marvelous to listen to a guy who really knows his business. Keep up the good work.
I have one question. I think somewhere below you said the Russian army is all volunteer. I read though that they still get a lot of people through the draft. Am I mistaken?
Hear, here! Carl, I second your gratitude to Outlaw. Outlaw, my tuition check is in the mail. I may be the only person I know, but I think that N.A.T.O., led by the U.S. must show a forceful response, as I discussed in my letter home. The push-back need not be large but noticeable enough as a trip-wire. At that point, compromise is possible (e.g., permitting the Ukraine to participate both in the E.U. and the developing Russian trade community). http://nedmcdletters.blogspot.com/2014/03/letters-to-friends-and-family-94.html This situation sounds much like the 1930s, especially with the news that Russia had been planning this incursion for five years or more.
While the various financial weapons would likely impose devastating effects, one must remember sanctions, frozen assets and frozen visas tend not to change behavior of the leadership but increase misery of the people. The Putinistas and oligarchs have enough money and resources not to suffer. In fact, economic means alone may harden the Russian stand.
It is disheartening that there have been no signs — at least that I know of — of mobilizing by the U.S. and western democracies. Germany’s Chancellor may not be so inclined to appeasement as she suffered under the yoke of the Soviet Empire.
Outlaw – All of your commentary is outstanding ref this subject.
This is what I have been harping about reference reigning in Putin—yes economic threats have a place now in the 21st century as an international relations tool–as a serious way to get someone’s attention.
All the while the US mass media bemoans it has no impact.
In a early morning call by Germany (Merkel) to Putin she simply made the statement you are clearly in violation of international law and norms and this will have an impact on our business relationships with you and Russia as well as impacting our really long standing solid political relations with Russia.
Merkel then suggested Putin let the OCSE mediate the issue and he accepted—now it will not stop/roll back the Crimea invasion–it might though avoid another 1914 event, but I think he looking for a face saving exercise on his eastern Ukraine threat.
NOW it is really interesting watching how the KGB/FSB is managing their IO campaign against the West—they have been lancing a series of articles via social media and general media from little known writers stating the West needs Russian assistance in Syria, Iran and NK and that the EU needs gas in order to create doubt.
By the way the US media and reporters in Russia picked up the lanced article and reported on it as planned—they never questioned the premises.
Now for a reality check–the EU right now has overfilled gas reserves due to a mild winter and have actually reduced their intake from Gazpom and have amble supplies for over nine months BUT Russia on the other hand is in massive need of a high inflow of hard currency as their economy is slumping badly—hard to balance threats against the EU when you need EU monies.
The Syrian threat is nothing as the Russians have constantly blocked a solution just as with Iran, and I am not so sure Putin has any impact ability on Kim/NK. AND would the US really trust him going forward as a mediator after this?
Today the Russian stock market plunged and the Ruble dove all on the reported coming war and looming economic sanctions and threatened bank freezes. By the way just on verbally threatened sanctions—they really paid attention to the Russia being thrown out of the G8 threat.
The Russian economy is in fact truly struggling which is not reported much in the US and is extremely venerable at this time and place —it was not six years when Georgia occurred—Putin failed to do his homework and assumed the past worked so why not the future.
Russia could have had the Crimea solution it wanted which all of EU agrees to a degree was historically Russian if they had been willing to go into a Federation form of government in open dialogue and in collaboration with the Ukraine which I think is where the Ukrainians wanted themselves wanted to go to begin with.
Some are indicating a form of free block state status as a possible solution similar to say Switzerland and or Austria years ago allowing for closer relations to the West and a formal economic/political relationship with Russia—which Austria got along with nicely for years after WW2.
The declared Putin Doctrine took a major hit-question is when will he lash out again?
One German headliner today was “Just What is the Man Thinking?—actually questioning his sanity.
For those that speak German and for those that do not think economic threats have an impact.
Today Gazprom the Russian oligarchs’ favorite company and a massive supporter of Putin took a double digit Billion dollar loss on the Russian stock market. They want to now raise their prices but the EU is not buying as their tanks are full—wonder just how long these oligarchs can hang on after these losses before whispering in Putin’s ear that it is hurting them?
This is a incoming German report on their market losses today and the Rubel hit the lowest point in their history against the dollar and euro.
Kind of embarrassing if you start a war and now your own currency is being hit massively and you need more of your currency just to buy the “hated” Western currencies who are opposing your war venture.
Kind of a Catch 22 that the KGB/FSB did not think through as really the Russian economy is just another “emerging market”—not an established one—the Russian Central Bank had to raise their interest rates strongly just to keep the Rubel exchange rate from exploding upward–the longer this event drags on the higher the exchange rate will go and as well as the interest rates—it is a death spiral for a struggling economy.
So just how is Putin to entice investment into Russian when his economy is tanking—was the Crimea really worth it?–you gain a new protectorate but lose your entire economy over it and it then generates questions about your leadership.
And who said “money is not a weapons system”?
The losses even impacted the EU markets as well.
Moskau – Die Krim-Krise hat die russische Börse am Montag auf Talfahrt geschickt: Der Moskauer Börsenindex MICEX brach um 5,89 Prozent ein, der Index RTS sackte nach Börsenöffnung um 7,08 Prozent in den Keller. Der Rubel stürzte auf ein historisches Tief gegenüber Euro und Dollar. Ein Euro kostete erstmals mehr als 50 Rubel.
Der RTS, in dem in Dollar notierte Aktienwerte zusammengefasst sind, brach sogar um bis zu zehn Prozent ein. Das ist der größte Tagesverlust seit den Turbulenzen nach der Pleite der US-Investmentbank Lehman Brothers im Herbst 2008. Einzelwerte wie die Papiere des Gasförderers Gazprom sackten sogar um bis zu zwölf Prozent ab.
Russian Duma is on the verge of passing a bill that allows Putin to Annex any territory that he feels needs “protection” of the Russian language.
Anyone now doubt that is about “spheres of influence” or is it a blatant land annexation in order to reinstitute the old SU using language as a reason?
Putin is great in wanting to protect Russian speakers in Crimea but they are only 59% of the population and there are three other minorities (41%) that are not so inclined to rejoin mother Russia especially the Tartars who are in fact armed. Putin has said nothing about protecting them—strange?
The same argument Putin uses for eastern Ukraine but there the Russian population is in fact the minority there while Ukrainians are the majority.
Today a number of eastern Ukrainian proRussian oligarchs openly warned Russia to stay out as they are Ukrainians not Russians.
Under international law we now see in the 21st century a full blown aggressor attacking another country under the guise of “protecting” the Russian language. So is this the new norm?
Putin is literally betting that the West will back down and not use the massive economic pressure they can in fact deploy against him because they cannot get a unified position among themselves.
Wonder when does Mexico pass a bill allowing them to Annex San Antonio in order to “protect” Spanish speakers or the KSA invades Iraq to “protect” threatened Sunnis in the Sunni triangle and the list can go on and on.
Now we hear the same Russian Foreign Minister who works with Kerry on Syria and Iran throw the new reason out there that the Ukraine is denying the human rights of the Russian speaking population when most reporters on the ground shug their shoulders and say What?—never have seen that.
At the same time the human rights of the opposition in Moscow are constantly being violated.
Concerning a previous comment of mine that the US Army had trained during two US/Russian peacekeeping exercises Russian staff officers from their Peacekeeping Bdes—some initial reports are coming out that the two Russian Peacekeeping Bdes are in fact now on the ground in the Crimea.
Great to see our training being effective–appears we are better at training Russians than say Iraqis.
This is from TIME a few hours ago from one of their reporters in the Crimea which shows an interesting development with the former eastern bloc that I think Putin and the Russian Army generals did not calculate at all.
One should not forget that the current Russian Army group of Generals are holdovers from the old Soviet Army while the new guard coming up at say the LTC/COL levels are products of post SU and actually have vastly different opinions than the top generals when they are outside their senior command structures—they can make great jokes about the Soviet Army days and current Generals in ways we would not dare in our Army or at least publicly in the US Army.
In many ways they envy the US Army and have a respect for our Iraq and AFG combat experiences as soldiers and as an Army—by the way a number speak good English.
My deep concern is when this is all over and done the new Putin Doctrine still exists as a valid Russian annexation tool.
Every single state in the former Soviet Union, from Central Asia to the Baltics, has a large Russian-speaking population, and this statement means that Russia reserves the right to invade when it feels that population is threatened. The natural reaction of any Russian ally in the region would be to seek security guarantees against becoming the next Ukraine. For countries in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, including Armenia, a staunch Russian ally, that would likely stir desires for a closer alliance with NATO and the European Union. For the countries of Central Asia, Russia’s traditional stomping ground on the geopolitical map of the world, that would mean strengthening ties with nearby China, including military ones.
China, which has long been Russia’s silent partner on all issues of global security from Syria to Iran, has also issued cautious statements regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine. “It is China’s long-standing position not to interfere in others’ internal affairs,” the Foreign Ministry reportedly said in a statement on Sunday. “We respect the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
So in the course of one weekend, Putin has spooked all of the countries he wanted to include in his grand Eurasian Union, the bloc of nations he hoped would make Russia a regional power again. The only gung-ho participants in that alliance so far have been Kazakhstan (see above) and Belarus, which is known as Europe’s last dictatorship. Its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has so far remained silent on the Russian intervention in Ukraine. But last week, Belarus recognized the legitimacy of the new revolutionary government in Kiev, marking a major break from Russia, which has condemned Ukraine’s new leaders as extremists and radicals. The Belarusian ambassador in Kiev even congratulated Ukraine’s new Foreign Minister on taking office and said he looks forward to working with him.
As for the impoverished nation of Armenia, a late-comer to Russia’s fledgling Eurasian alliance, it has also recognized the new government in Kiev while stopping short of any official condemnation of Putin’s intervention in Ukraine so far. But on Saturday, prominent politicians led an anti-Putin demonstration in the Armenia capital. “We are not against Russia,” said the country’s former Minister of National Security David Shakhnazaryan. “We are against the imperial policies of Putin and the Kremlin.”
This came out of a pro Putin supporter yesterday who was making the case they could resist economic sanctions—notice though the amount on hand—if true then why are they dependent on outside investment and new companies when in they they could go for global funding outside and finance it internally with that amount.
Again a lanced KGB/FSB I/O comment for western media and it got picked up.
“But pro-Kremlin experts argue that Russia, which has nearly $500 billion in foreign currency reserves, can weather the economic storm, and that any sharp diplomatic gestures are likely to be short-lived”. (2008 experiences)
Does not fit the doom and gloom coming out of the Russian business community yesterday after the market/rubel crashes.
Who says sanction threats cannot cause some in Moscow to flip out.
Know this individual who in the past has made some out of control/crazy right wing/Russian nationalist comments meaning this is not unusual for him–the KGB/FSB use him to lance anti anything comments and stories—
This one is strange even for him—if you do not pay back company bank loans then you are in default/then you go out of business and risk the entire country being sucked into default.
http://news.yahoo.com/kremlin-aide-says-u-may-face-consequences-sanctions-081601584–finance.html
For those that speak German here is a massively interesting article showing a Ukrainian Air Force Bde that while totally unarmed marched up singing to the Russian SF Commander who demanded they surrender and become line crossers which the entire Bde refused to do not even for the increased monthly pay the Russia SF Commander was offering them.
My respect—not sure how western army units while surrounded by superior forces would challenge the aggressor in the way they did and still not surrender. They stated it was for their pride in the Ukraine and their military.
The KGB/FSB I/O TV network RT carried this same photo BUT claiming they had crossed over—the actual story is now being carried via social media in Moscow as proof on just how bad RT is at putting out propaganda.
Pictures like these are starting to hurt Putin’s image as many Russians know that the Ukraine fought side by side with Russia during WW2.
That fact was thrown in the face of the Russian SF Commander.
A yet Putin still claims no Russian troops in the Crimea.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/sewastopol-krim-brigade-verweigert-kapitulation-a-956884.html
Outlaw09
This is what happens if you spend 600 billion dollars every year on a military that gets its butt kicked up around its ears by folks who plant fertilizer bombs and walk around in sandals with goat shit stuck between their toes.
It gets all kinds of crazy people thinking bad things.
At the moment I seriously doubt that any West European is willing to risk even a 5 cent rise in a liter of petrol for the sake of the Ukrainians.
That needs to be made to change for all our sakes.
In times like this every Central European will apply the ‘Ask the Mantelpiece’ test to determine what foreigners can they rely on when the Bear threatens the door.
In probably every home in this part of Europe there will be upon the mantelpiece above the fireplace a collection of photos. Most will be of children but in a pride of place there will be a few faded black and white photos depicting rather stoic looking people in stiff poses. The frames of these old photos are usually very heavy solid silver – many with rather elaborate orthodox Christian markings and probably draped with rosary beads and a small crucifix.
All over central Europe people will look into the eyes of these long dead people and ask themselves which one of these parents, uncles, aunts, brothers, sisters or close friends ended up in a ditch with a German or Russian bullet in the back of their neck or starved to death and left by the side of the road.
For tens of millions of folks they will stare into the eyes of at least one murdered relative – for some suffering families there will be dozens. It is the foreigners who share this terrible legacy that the Ukrainians are hoping will come to the aid.
And those folks will overwhelmingly be Polish.
I believe it is very important that folks should not confuse what happened to the Polish and Ukrainian Christians in this part of Europe with the Nazis slaughter of the Jews. Many more Ukrainians and Polish gentiles died at the hands of Stalin and Hitler than did Jews. It is an appalling fact but before WW2 even began, the Stalin killed as many Ukrainians in the Holomor as the Nazis had Jews exterminated during WW2.
However in recognizing Clausewitz’s foremost lesson about knowing what you are getting into, the sad truth is many folks in this part of Europe are terribly anti-Semitic. I recall a briefing back in the day when folks were attempting to resurrect the Ukrainian People’s Army to fight UW within the SU and the plight of John Demjanjuk (Auschwitz’s Ivan the Terrible) was mentioned. The UPA representative was explaining how embarrassed he was that USD2 million had been raised for the former Auschwitz guard’s defense.
I naively asked whether that amount of money and support was hampering recruitment. He gave me a questioning glance and explained he was frustrated by the fact that everyone in the Ukrainian community knew Demjanjuk to be innocent. If on the other hand had they believed Demjanjuk to be guilty they would have raised USD 20 million with no trouble at all.
The Poles will fight with or without us. The Ukrainian will fight as well but Putin (stupidly IMHO) does not fear the Ukrainians. Whether he is deluded by a sense brotherliness or lack of a large enough standing Army it doesn’t matter he probably is correct in thinking that the Ukrainians standing alone could not hold off the Russian Army.
But not so the Poles. Putin knows they will sacrifice millions of their citizens to keep the Bear from subjugating them again and he will lose.
So how to avoid a bloodbath.
The Poles should threaten the Germans that they will mobilize the Polish Armed Forces if the EU doesn’t apply full economic and political sanctions on Putin. They can bring up the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Katyn, the 1944 Warsaw Uprising, the Massacre of Ukrainian Cossacks at Lienz, the Polish Cavalry Charge at Krojanty and hundreds of emotive and harrowing accounts of German – Russian brutality against Poles and Ukrainians.
The propaganda fire the Poles and the Ukrainians could light under the backside of the whole German political class would be unbearable. For good measure they could declare their willingness to once again defend themselves from attack from both East and West as they have been doing for 900 years.
Despite censorship Putin would find it very difficult to stop the whole Molotov, Katyn, Warsaw Uprising, Holomor tsunami of Soviet atrocities sweeping across the Russian internet – probably for the first time.
And everyone goes home.
Pozdrawiam
RC
To really understand the Crimea conflict or what I call the new Putin Doctrine of annexation through language spoken there are at least four things all running parallel to each other at this time and place that have made even myself go back to rethink over 40 years of military and political science training and education.
Living now in Berlin and speaking fluent German and Russian compliments by the way of the excellent SF language training in Oberammergau Germany and the then even greater/excellent Soviet Studies School in Garmisch Germany—it is great to tap into social media and open source media in the two languages plus the English on the side to get a far better picture of the parallel events running in the background.
By the way Berlin has a large Ukrainian and Russian population that has been holding common demos in front of the Russian embassy here against Putin—strange that they get along but Putin does not.
This particular conflict has opened up a discussion on what some call the hard and soft forms of political actions/responses—soft referring to the current WH response and hard referring to Putin.
There has been in the EU and particularly now with Germany a possible third way developing that is in between the two and which indicates that Putin may have directly caused his own worst nightmare—an emerging consensus within the EU and NATO that will effect Europe in the coming years.
Remember it is all about getting consensus with 28 countries which is like a training video I use to use for Commanders and Staffs called “Herding Cats”.
Will provide more thoughts later today as I work through a number of German and Russian comments from the last two days.
It has been interesting to see the reactions by Putin to the mounting economic pressures—he first signals to the Germans that he “might be” interested in dialog in a fact finding mission and then maybe with an observer team from the OSCE which Russia is a member.
Then when the West attempts to create the “fact finding group” the Russians block any engaging attempts then when the OSCE is standing at the Crimea crossing point they are blocked entrance by these Putin so called “civilian defense groups” that kind of look like the Russian army in sanitized camos but with Russian military license plates of the Black Sea Fleet. From the comments of the OSCE theyindicate the “civilians soldiers” were very professional and very well trained—so much for the myth of “civilians”.
All he has been doing is playing the delaying card to win time to de facto do a quick election to ensure Crimea stays inside Russia nothing less nothing more.
The only thing that will get his attention is a strong series of sanctions as talk does nothing for him as he knows with time it will die out—he just has to wait the West out as he did in Georgia.
There is great fear on some of the Russian blogs indicating they fully understand the sanctions impact based on Iran and from the various official responses they seem confused and do yet not quite have figured out how to counter it.
This report came out over German blogging on the halting of the OCSE team.
Die OSZE-Beobachter steckten fest, aber sie würden nicht umkehren, zitiert die AFP westliche Diplomatenkreise: “Sie werden von zwei Gruppen Bewaffneter nicht reingelassen.” Die Kämpfer seien “sehr professionell, sehr gut ausgebildet”.
This came in over the social media at 11:08 this morning on Der Spiegel.
It seems that Putin is “really sad” —” really really sad”that the West has thrown up a wall of “misunderstanding” in what the Russians and Putin are trying to do-and “he feels misunderstood”–as stated by his own Press Speaker.
The key interesting comment is at the last when they are indicating that it is they who are being driven by events NOT them driving the events—now that is an interesting admission.
Admitting that you are evidently “being driven by events” is not a good thing for an alleged superpower these days.
So I guess the solution of the Crimea events is what to offer to send a delegation of therapists to Moscow at no cost then they will pull back—just why did they not say that sooner?
Wladimir Putin fühlt sich unverstanden: “Trotz aller Anstrengungen unseres Präsidenten und seiner Bereitschaft, die russische Position Tag für Tag zu erklären, stoßen wir immer noch auf eine Mauer des Unverständnisses”, sagte Putins Sprecher Dmitrij Peskow dem TV-Sender Rossija 24. “Das ist wirklich traurig.” Moskau steuere auch überhaupt nicht die Entwicklungen in der Ukraine – “ganz im Gegenteil”.
There is something that we tend to forget in this long thread and it goes back to a comment by Robert that this is really a sphere of influence issue and we should not be involved.
If we take the Putin Doctrine and it is now in the realm of International Relations a true political doctrine we can identify currently worldwide over 345 ethnic/language/religion pockets of populations that could in fact be taken over by a neighboring country with a large of amount of these being in Africa. Most of the problem lies with the colonial powers and the way they drew arbitrary borders years ago. So now are we viewing the complete reshuffle of sovereign borders?
The question becomes then do we walk away (not get involved) from these future events with the simple argument that is a sphere of influence?
That is really what this is all about—the unlimited ability of one country to take portions of another using a fake argument ie language/religion/ethnicity in order to expand their own territory at the cost of the neighbor.
And this in the 21st century and in the absence of a cold war.
Just a side comment—the current actions and comments out of Moscow the last two days including this morning led me to believe that Putin has now turned this into what we feared in the 80s a true conflict over East vs West.
The comments coming from Moscow have a tone and style truly never seen before even in the cold war days and it could be summed up by this comment late last night by Moscow and it is a direct challenge to the EU/NATO and the US.
“Der Garant für Sicherheit in der Region sei allein Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin.”
Security in the region can only be guaranteed by Russia’s President Putin.
Now if you were a former eastern European vassal to the SU after 1945 what are you thinking now?
If you are the US has now your concept of soft power failed and Putin is relegating you to the dust bin of history and a second rate power?
Also has the decision to literally pull all troops out of Europe come back to haunt the decision makers that made that decision?
Now is the EU being directly challenged to the point that they are being made politically insignificant?
Interesting questions that will be answered in the coming 10 days if not sooner as the Russian comments are even directly challenging the Germans.
This may sound cynical but I know the answers that are coming–so I am going to enjoy the summer like winter we are getting into now and thank global warming for keeping my heating bill low AND watch history being made.
I thought this article might be of interest given the topic and the author of this SWJ piece:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/mikheil-saakashvili-medfords-most-wanted-10993
Despite others making fun of me for continuing to read this site and post here, I am glad I “stayed.” I am getting quite an education. Won’t make any difference, but it’s still the correct thing to do.