Afghanistan Exit Underway?

Exit Under Way – Thomas Rid, Kings of War.

… [Steve] Coll said something noteworthy in his closing words on the war in Afghanistan. It may be repeated and quoted here. Keep in mind the context: the summer has been hard. This July is now the deadliest month of the entire 9-year war so far, for the United States at least. 63 soldiers were killed, surpassing last month’s record of 60.

Now try taking a step back. “A new phase of the war has already begun,” Coll tells us. He’s not sure American decision makers always recognize and acknowledge that we’re in a transition phase – I certainly know the feeling from Europe. “The exit strategy is already under way,” he says. The date is not certain yet, but certain is that it will be some time between 2011 and 2014. That is not far off, mind you. “Every actor in the war knows it’s coming.” And “everybody” is “hedging for a post-NATO Afghanistan.”

Now, here Mr Coll might be a bit too optimistic. There can be little doubt that some actors are preparing for a post-NATO – read: post-counterinsurgency – Afghanistan: yes, the Taliban are patiently preparing; many among the local population are preparing; probably the current regime in Afghanistan is preparing; certainly Pakistani intelligence is hedging its bets in the shadows. But what about Washington? What about London and Berlin? …

More at Kings of War.