Small Wars Journal

Preparing for the Next Battle of Gaza

Thu, 07/05/2007 - 12:46pm
The current situation in Gaza is a laboratory for the kind of conflicts that we are likely to see in the immediate future throughout the world. The best case solution would be to broker an agreement where the Hamas radicals and the more moderate Fatah faction can agree to accept that the existence of Israel is a fact and for Hamas to stop shooting rockets at the Israelis and threatening to annihilate them, which Hamas is not in a position to do in any case. If that fails, the big question for America and her allies is whether or not to support a Fatah military attempt to retake Gaza.

Fatah is now like 'Sarge' in the Beetle Bailey cartoon. It has gone over the brink and is holding onto a tree on the side of the cliff. The Americans and Israelis have offered Fatah a rope. The question is both whether the Fatah leadership will grab it and whether the Americans and Israelis will know how to handle the lifeline. None of this is a given. This is, at best, a tenuous situation. It might lead to a happy ending, or it might be a debacle. Everything depends on how Fatah handles Israeli and American support, and how they handle Hamas.

First, Fatah has to commit to real reform and transparency. Its own people and its allies have every right to demand it. There should be a rigorous World Bank audit of how every dollar in aid is spent. Hamas did not win the last election because of its stand toward Israel; it won it by providing the only responsive social services in the Palestinian territories. Fatah must work with non governmental relief agencies to create a truly responsive social service network that will be prepared to create a climate of confidence in the West Bank and prepare the political battlespace before Fatah counterattacks militarily in Gaza. Once Fatah regains military control, it must be prepared to win the battle for the hearts and minds of Gaza's population. If they cannot do that, no amount of military force is relevant.

From an American and Israeli perspective, we must keep our fingerprints off the direct planning for the Gaza counteroffensive, which will take at least a year to prepare. We should finance the Jordanians, Egyptians, and Sunni Gulf states to provide training, advisors, and equipment to the abysmal Fatah security forces. All of those nations have a vested interest in eliminating the unholy alliance between Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Quds organization. However, direct American or Israeli involvement in the conflict would likely be the kiss of death for Fatah.

It will likely take at least a year for Fatah to be ready to launch a counter-attack in Gaza. The Fatah security forces must be instilled with pride, training and discipline to match Hamas. They need to gain confidence in their reformed political leadership; if Fatah can reform, and that is a big if, the Israelis have to accept the fact that, to win in a stand up fight, Fatah will need a reasonable amount of tanks and some attack helicopters. The quantity of such weapons needed to retake Gaza would never pose even a minimal threat to Israel, but the thought of such weapons in the hands of any Palestinians in any amount has long been anathema to the Israelis.

The is won't happen overnight, and that is not necessarily a bad thing The best way to prepare the battlefield for the return of Fatah is for the secular and relatively sophisticated Gaza Palestinians to live under the fundamentalist yoke of Hamas for a while under continued western sanctions. Let's see how they vote in eighteen months.

The Hamas victory in Gaza was not necessarily a bad thing. The Palestinians have long needed a dash of cold water. Their great weakness is that the Palestinians have always found others to blame. To be sure, they will still try to do so. Until they realize that their future is in their own hands, they will never be a viable society.

We should encourage our Arab allies to train the Palestinians differently than we have done with the Iraqis. We have tried to build the Iraqi Army in our image. This is alien to Arab soldiers who have a much different view of male bonding and unit cohesion. Our Arab friends should be encouraged to give the Palestinians basic weapons familiarization and small unit skills training as well as building clearing drills. However, they should pick the best and brightest of the students and make them small unit officers and NCOS. At that point, they should allow the students to work out their own tactics. They know how Hamas fights. Ironically, this is how the Israelis built their nascent army in the 1940's.

If we Americans can indirectly help our Arab allies solve this situation it could prove to be a model for how we handle such challenges in the future.

Gary Anderson was a UN Observer in Lebanon and Gaza and has traveled extensively in the region. He has also served as a counterinsurgency advisor to the Deputy Secretary of Defense.

Comments

Scott (not verified)

Sat, 07/07/2007 - 11:28am

This sort of thinking ( the article ) is what's behind of the genius of George Bush, Condi and the utter bufoon Olmert.

Put the palis on a flotilla of garbage skows and set them adrift in the Mediterranean. Oh, OK, in the interests of humanitarian concerns give each skow a 5hp motor and some gas.

This will solve the problem. Course it will never be done and thus proves the Israelis all know they can always give up and come to live in the US some day.

Scott (not verified)

Sat, 07/07/2007 - 11:19am

I think a.r. is just trying to say the article is a silly fairy tale based on intelligent thoughtful logic grounded in western psychology. Its just wrong. The palis are a disparate assemblage of folks who have been hoodwinked and forced into exile and criminal status by a bunch of Arab thugs.

These thugs, their rulers, are about power and graft. Period. Doesn't matter if its Fatah, or Hamas or dickwad. This ain't gonna change untill someone goes in and kills all the thugs. Then some other thugs will just take over.

The theories sketched out in the article are just nonsense. Imagine if the author were talking about the Cosa Nostra. Would make about as much sense.

Small Wars Journal (not verified)

Sat, 07/07/2007 - 7:06am

Hey, Gary. We got a B!

Interesting e-mail exchange with a fan. Reproduced below.

Dissenting opinions welcome here. Prefer them well formed and professionally presented.

I believe a.r. would agree with that great Western philosopher and poet, Clint Eastwood, in that <em>"a man's got to know his limitations."</em>

Others might favor George Burns's classic observation that it's <em>"too bad all the people who really know how to run this country are busy driving cabs and cutting hair."</em>

- Bill

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Reading your take on Gaza only shows how
little those who come from the West understand the region and
are likely to repeat the same mistakes over and over.

Did you try reading some books?

a.r
----------------
<blockquote>
<p>Nope. Burned all of those last week.</p>
<p>Why don't you enlighten us with a legit comment on the blog or board? Or go look in a mirror and admire what you see, where no one else gets to benefit from your wisdom.</p>
</blockquote>
----------------
Most of you opinionators, experts, never been in the dirty streets and th sewer filled roads of Gaza and you (nothing personal) all know so little about the region. Yet you have so much to say-with so much authority and absolute certitude that you know it all.

I do not write or speak on the region anywhere but I know the area well enough, shall we say since 1956? I have been in Gaza hundreds of times, so when I read your text and that of others I find it all so laughable. Like the clowns at Foggy Bottom, none of you get it!

It has nothing to do with your kind of logic, values or rational. It is another world. This is not a personal comment because you are no different than the many reporters who file from Jerusalem ( those who never dare to go to Gaza), or those who write for dailies, think-tanks and various blogs. I ll give you B for trying.

Best Regards,

a.r