Basra Debate and Analysis II (Updated)

Behind the Bloodshed in Basra - Mohammed Fadhil, Iraq the Model

One of the most notable things about the fierce and bloody confrontation taking place the government and Sadr's militia is the spin on the operation by the commanders and the government; that it is a crackdown on outlaws with emphasis that the operation targets no particular movement or political line.

This generic label, includes the so-called rogue Sadrists. Sadr announced only weeks ago that whoever doesn't uphold the ceasefire would no longer be considered a member of the movement.

Now, Sadr is watching those rogue elements being hit hard by the government forces. Instead of disavowing those who blatantly disobeyed his ceasefire orders we see him call for negotiations and condemning the government, thus once more revealing his real face as a defender of his own version of terrorism.

Basra a Test of America's Exit Strategy - Westhawk, Westhawk

President Bush has called the current battle between Iraqi security forces and Sadr militiamen in Basra "a defining moment." In his mind, President Bush probably likens the Basra battle to America's Whiskey Rebellion, when President Washington had to defend the new constitution against a militia uprising. Of course, many other observers interpret the violence in Basra as Shi'ite factions, some in government uniforms, battling for economic spoils in Basra and the surrounding oil patch.

For the U.S. military in Iraq, the battle for Basra is a defining moment for its exit strategy from the country. Namely, will.

Fighting in Basra - Max Boot, Commentary

I have hesitated to comment on the fighting raging in Basra, which has spilled over into other cities including Baghdad, because the shape of events is so difficult to make out from afar-or for that matter even from up close. The best analysis I have seen is this article in the Financial Times which notes that Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki is taking a major gamble by challenging the power of the Shiite militias--more like criminal gangs-which have seized control of Basra, Iraq's second or third largest city and home to its only major port.

While most news coverage has focused on the renewed fighting as signs of impending doom--or at the very least evidence that the surge isn't working so well--the FT correctly detects a silver lining: "If the prime minister succeeds, the pay-off would deliver a big boost to the credibility of a shaky government, proving that the growing national army is capable of taking on powerful militia."

This gamble is long overdue.

From SNAFU to FUBAR in Basra (Updated) - Phil Carter, Intel Dump

Oh yeah, and another thing. Every time you think of the "adviser model" for Iraq, you should think of this operation in Basra. Because this is the end result of the U.S. advisory effort to date -- which has focused on creating well-trained and equipped units at the tactical level, but has basically failed at the national, strategic level. The leaders of the Iraqi security forces at the ministry level are as bad as they ever were. And the national government is about as bad. Training and advising Iraqi units at the brigade level and below is well and good. But if you fail to properly shape the national command structure, you're handing those units over to leaders who will misuse them.

There is Nothing Prreventing Iraq from Going Right... - AM, Abu Muqawama

Karen DeYoung's article in the Washington Post nicely captures two things: One, how tenuous a situation we have right now in Iraq, and how the gains of 2007 can be wiped out frighteningly quickly, and two, what an absolute mess the British Army left southern Iraq. This is what happens when you march into Basra Province thinking it's an Arabic-speaking Country Armagh. This is what happens when you equate a lack of violence with everything going well -- and ignore the militias who are taking control of the streets. This is what happens when you decide to do peace-keeping rather than counter-insurgency.

Sadr - Richard Fernandez, The Belmont Club

The attitude of the other factions towards Sadr was manifested when the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdish Alliance apparently boycotted sessions attended by Sadr's faction. The question of how far Maliki will go against Sadr was partially answered when the Iraqi PM extended the deadline for the militias to lay down their arms. This has led some to suggest that a deal is now in the works.

But it's also possible that Maliki is trying to peel away the less loyal of Sadr's commanders and turn them to his side. Which exactly will be the case the next few days will reveal.

The Lesson of Najaf - Jules Crittenden, Forward Movement

Leaving armed criminal gangs running half the country was never going to work, anyway. There were reports a few months ago that in some areas south of Baghdad, Shiites were interested in the Sunni experience and wanted to try it themselves. U.S. forces can support and even lead Iraqi troops, but none of it works in the long run until the people decide they've had enough.

The Battle for Basra: U.S. Forces Take the Lead - AM, Abu Muqawama

If Abu Muqawama was leading one of those U.S. units into Sadr City past a bunch of Iraqi Army soldiers hanging out on the outskirts, he would not be happy. He would be asking himself a) why is he the one establishing the authority of the Iraqi state and not the Iraqi Army and b) why is he duking it out with a militia with broad popular support so that another Iran-backed political party can win a bigger share of the vote in the fall?

Now Iraqi Army units are calling for U.S. and UK military units to lend direct support in Basra as well.

Moral Hazard to Infinity and.... Basra? - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

Did the United States have advance notice of Maliki's decision to attack Basra? In a much-blogged story this morning, The Washington Post reported that "Maliki decided to launch the offensive without consulting his U.S. allies, according to administration officials" and that they were all arguing over "who's got the best conspiracy theory about why Maliki decided to act now" (fortunately, they had this handy guide).

Shia Clashes in Basra - Will Hartley, Insurgency Research Group

Al-Jazeera English has a good report on the current fighting in Basra, which offers a more nuanced analysis of events than is provided by most coverage. The report makes clear that underlying the engagement is a struggle for influence in the oil-rich south between the two main Shia factions in Iraq: the Sadrists led by Muqtada al-Sadr, whose armed wing - the Jaish al Mahdi (Mahdi Army) - is the object of the security operation; and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), whose armed wing - the Badr Organisation - dominates the security forces.

Moqtada al-Sadr's Religious Strategy Complicates Jaysh al-Mahdi Ceasefire - Ramzy Mardini, Jamestown Foundation

As smoke billows from Baghdad's U.S.-controlled "Green Zone" following a series of rocket and mortar attacks thought to have been carried out by members of Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaysh al-Mahdi (JaM) movement last weekend, important questions have been raised concerning the direction of the movement as its leader becomes increasingly reclusive.

The young Iraqi firebrand and Shiite cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, recently tried to put to rest the confusion and rumors circulating around his withdrawal from the Iraqi political scene. In a statement posted on the Sadrist al-Amarah website, al-Sadr declared that his absence was due to a decision to pursue religious studies in Qom and Najaf—a path intended to lead to Ayatollah status within Shiite Islam (Gulf News, March 10). Though al-Sadr extended the self-imposed ceasefire on his forces last February, his absence poses serious questions regarding the status of his JaM militia.

Fighting in Baghdad, South Against Mahdi Army Completes Fourth Day - Bill Roggio, Long War Journal

Fighting in Basrah, Baghdad, and throughout much of the South continues as Iraqi security Forces and Multinational Forces Iraq press the fight against the Mahdi Army and other Iranian-backed terror groups. The Iraqi Army has moved additional forces to Basrah as the US and Iraqi military have conducted significant engagements in Shia areas of Baghdad. The Mahdi Army has taken significant casualties. The US military has denied the Mahdi Army has taken control of checkpoints in Baghdad.

Several hundred Iraqis are reported to have been killed during the fighting since the operation began on March 25. A large majority of them are Mahdi Army fighters, according to the press reports. The US and Iraqi military have killed more than 70 Mahdi Army fighters in Shia neighborhood in Baghdad alone over the past three days.

Iraqi Army's Vehicles Stall Out in Basra - Paul McLeary, Ares

While this isn't necessarily a defeat for the IA, it remains to be seen if they can overcome the limitations of their equipment to move through the city to confront the Mahdi Army. For now, at least, it looks like their recon might not have been the best. A "Basra newspaper editor" quoted by the Times told the paper that "it was obvious that the central government had not consulted with local commanders in planning the assault, citing the inability of the armored vehicles to fit through city streets."

When fighting an insurgency that relies on motorcycles and small cars and trucks to move around the narrow streets of a city, bigger isn't always better.

Continued Chaos in Basra - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

In mid-2007 when the British retreated from Basra, they did so while telling the tall tale that since the very presence of the British themselves was causing the violence, it would be better if they just left. In other words, no one would shoot at the British Army if the Army wasn't there. There wasn't a rush of anyone or any faction into Basra. They were already there and had control of the city. The British never had control of Basra, and from the beginning it was left to Shi'a factions, criminal elements, Iranian proxy fighters (Badr, Quds), and the loss of Basra was a constant diminution of civilization up to the point that the British ended up behind barbed wire at the Basra airport, contributing nothing to the Iraq campaign. We have already linked Nibras Kazimi who, in the update to his post, conveys the Iraqi sentiment concerning the British Army. It isn't flattering, and British Colonel Tim Collins knows and has said that the retreat from Basra has badly damaged the reputation of the British Army.

Cutting the Road to Kut, Part I - Jeff Kouba, Peace Like a River

If Iran supports the Mahdi Army, and if Mehran is a source of that support, and if Kut is near Mehran, it stands to reason that Kut will harbor a particularly strong Mahdi Army force.

And so, I'd like to offer up Kut as a metaphor for what is happening inside Iraq. If that road between Kut and Mehran can be "cut," if Iran's support for militants in Iraq who foment violence and discord can be cut, Iraq stands a much better chance of getting on its feet again.

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