Small Wars Journal

Al Qaeda: Winning or Losing?

Thu, 07/17/2008 - 7:27pm

The Economist - Al-Qaeda has made terrorism truly global, to deadly effect. But it may yet prove to be its own worst enemy, says Anton La Guardia.

Al Qaeda: Winning or Losing? - The Economist special report

These days in Peshawar, where al-Qaeda was founded 20 years ago, the only glimpse of Osama bin Laden comes on little green packets of safety matches strewn around town by American officials. They bear the portrait of the world's most wanted man, along with the promise that America will pay up to $5 million for information leading to his capture.

It is an appropriate image. Like one of these matches, Mr bin Laden caused a flash with the September 11th attacks on America in 2001, then vanished into smoke, leaving a burning trail of militancy stretching from Indonesia to Afghanistan, Iraq, north Africa and Europe. And despite the reward offered for his capture, now $25m, nobody has yet betrayed the whereabouts of "the Sheikh", who periodically emerges on the internet to deliver some doom-laden warning to the West.

Nearly seven years into America's "global war on terror", the result remains inconclusive. Al-Qaeda lost a safe haven in Afghanistan, but is rebuilding another one in Pakistan; Mr bin Laden is at large, but Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, who masterminded September 11th, has gone on trial in Guantánamo Bay; many leaders have been captured or killed, but others have taken their place; al-Qaeda faces an ideological backlash, but young Muslims still volunteer to blow themselves up...

Al Qaeda: Winning or Losing? - The Economist special report