QUOTE OF THE DAY

US policy-makers, planners, and programmers in the upcoming administration therefore would be well advised to review short-, mid-, and long-range requirements across the board, bearing in mind that the most dangerous enemy capabilities imaginable do not necessarily constitute dangerous threats, for reasons the attachment explores.

--John Collins - Small Wars Journal

THE LONG WAR

Military Prepares for Threats During Presidential Transition - Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post

The US military, bracing for the first wartime presidential transition in 40 years, is preparing for potential crises during the vulnerable handover period, including possible attacks by al-Qaeda and destabilizing developments in Iraq or Afghanistan, according to senior military officials.

"I think the enemy could well take advantage" of the transfer of power in Washington, said the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, who launched preparations for the transition months ago, and who will brief the president-elect, the defense secretary nominee and other incoming officials on crisis management and how to run the military.

Officials are working "to make sure we are postured the right way around the world militarily, that our intelligence is focused on this issue, and in day-to-day operations the military is making sure it does not happen," Mullen said in an interview. "If it does happen, we need to be in a position to respond before and after the inauguration."

More at The Washington Post.

AFGHANISTAN

US Chiefs Plan Troop Surge in Afghanistan - Michael Smith, The Times

American military chiefs are to send up to 9,000 troops to Helmand next year, potentially sidelining the UK’s 5,000-strong force in the southern Afghanistan province. The first of three US brigade combat teams is expected to be operational by the spring. Their main base is under construction alongside the British headquarters at Camp Bastion.

The move comes amid US frustration that the British have insufficient soldiers and helicopters to maintain security and reconstruct Helmand, with the Taliban acting freely in large tracts of the province.

General David McKiernan, the US commander of all allied forces in Afghanistan, has asked for at least four brigade combat teams for Afghanistan, but most will go into Helmand.

President George W Bush is expected to announce a surge of US troops into southern Afghanistan after next month’s White House election.

More at The Times.

US Considers Sending Special Ops to Afghanistan - Peter Spiegel, Los Angeles Times

In a sign that the US military is scaling back its goals in Afghanistan, senior Pentagon officials are weighing controversial proposals to send additional teams of highly trained special operations forces to narrowly target the most violent insurgent bands in the country.

The proposals are part of an acknowledgment among senior brass that a large-scale influx of conventional forces is unlikely in the near future because of troop commitments in Iraq. It also reflects the urgency to take some action to reverse recent setbacks in Afghanistan.

The idea of sending more special forces has intensified the debate over the best way to fight the war in Afghanistan. As security worsens in the country, many military leaders are increasingly arguing that an Iraq-style troop "surge" and counterinsurgency plan would not work because of the country's rugged geography and a history of resistance to rule from Kabul.

Unlike Iraq, where large portions of the population are urbanized in the wide, flat plains of the Tigris and Euphrates river valleys, much of Afghanistan is mountainous and dotted with remote villages that are hard to reach with large bodies of conventional forces, several Pentagon officials involved in the Afghanistan strategy review said.

More at The Los Angeles Times.

Hutton Confident Over Taleban War - BBC News

Britain will win the war against the Taleban in Afghanistan, new Defence Secretary John Hutton has said.

Writing in the News of the World, he said it could not be won by military means alone, but security, governance and reconstruction were also important.

Mr Hutton visited Afghanistan and Iraq earlier this month after replacing Des Browne in the cabinet reshuffle.

He said he accepted UK troops had not always had the best kit and committed to ensuring they would in the future.

More at BBC News.

Tea With the Taliban? - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion

As US and European officials ponder what to do about the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, they are coming to a perhaps surprising conclusion: The simplest way to stabilize the country may be to negotiate a truce with the Taliban fundamentalists who were driven from power by the United States in 2001.

The question policymakers are pondering, in fact, isn't whether to negotiate with the Taliban but when. There's a widespread view among Bush administration officials and US military commanders that it's too soon for serious talks, because any negotiation now would be from a position of weakness. Some argue for a US troop buildup and an aggressive military campaign next year to secure Afghan population centers, followed by negotiations.

How the worm turns: A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable that the United States would consider any rapprochement with the Taliban militants who gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden as he planned the devastating attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the painful experience of Iraq and Afghanistan has convinced many US commanders that if you can take an enemy off the battlefield through negotiations, that's better than getting pinned down in protracted combat.

More at The Washington Post.

PAKISTAN

Pakistani Troops Seize Key Militant Stronghold - Voice of America

Pakistan's army says it has captured a key militant stronghold near the Afghan border, in an ongoing offensive against al-Qaida and Taliban militants in the Bajaur tribal region.

Pakistani Major General Tariq Khan says military forces gained control of Loi Sam, a strategic town at the center of militant supply routes. He told reporters visiting the area Saturday that the military victory followed heavy resistance from militant fighters.

Pakistani security forces have been battling al-Qaida and Taliban militants in Bajaur since August. Khan says nearly 1,500 suspected militants and 73 troops have died in the operation so far.

But he warned Saturday it could take several more months before Pakistani authorities gain complete control of Bajaur.

More at Voice of America, BBC News and Washington Times.

IMF Tells Pakistan to Cut Army - Bruce Loudon, The Australian

The International Monetary Fund yesterday ordered Pakistan to cut military spending by almost a third as fears grew that the nuclear-armed nation's economic crisis was now so bad that its role in the war against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban was imperilled.

The secret IMF demand - one of several measures that the bankrupt country is being asked to agree to for a bailout of its tanking economy - was disclosed as President Asif Ali Zardari prepared to go cap in hand to Saudi Arabia for help.

Also yesterday, it was announced that US General David Petraeus would travel to Islamabad next week for talks.

Amid reports that General Petraeus was planning the same strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan that he used in Iraq, it emerged that the boss of Islamabad's spy agency, the ISI, General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, was in Washington to mend fences over his organisation's double-dealing with the militants.

More at The Australian.

LEBANON

US Resupplies Lebanon Military to Stabilize Ally - Robert Worth and Eric Lipton, New York Times

For years, the Lebanese military was ridiculed as the least effective armed group in a country that was full of them. After the army splintered during the 15-year civil war, its arsenal slowly rotted into a museum of obsolete tanks and grounded aircraft.

Now that is starting to change. At the gates of a military base just north of Beirut, groups of soldiers drive new American Humvees and trucks, and some tote gleaming new American rifles and grenade launchers.

The weapons are the leading edge of a new American commitment to resupply the military of this small but pivotal Middle Eastern country, which emerged three years ago from decades of Syrian domination.

The new wave of aid, the first major American military assistance to Lebanon since the 1980s, is meant to build an armed force that could help stabilize Lebanon’s fractured state, fight a rising terrorist threat and provide a legitimate alternative to the Shiite militant group Hezbollah. That organization, which controls southern Lebanon, has refused to disarm, arguing that it is the only force that can defend the country against Israel.

More at The New York Times.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Army Needs Rebuilding - Bill Maxwell, Washington Times opinion

When the US military, along with a handful of allies, invaded Iraq in spring 2003, hopes ran high that our lighter, swifter, all-volunteer service would accomplish the mission quickly and be home by Christmas.

Five years later, a crude reality has emerged: Our all-volunteer service is straining under the weight of forces few in Washington predicted. Some analysts believe our military has been irreparably damaged by the protracted conflicts in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Because the military is all-volunteer, the biggest problems are recruitment and keeping personnel in the ranks for the duration of their enlistments. To meet recruitment goals and to keep troop levels adequate during this era of the so-called war on terror, the military, especially the active Army and the Reserves, has been forced to lower its standards for enlistees.

The result, some officials acknowledge, is that the Army is ailing, and the problem is reflected in the rate of desertions. More soldiers and enlistees are deserting in numbers that have not been seen since Vietnam, when the draft was in effect.

More at The Washington Times.

NEWS & OPINION NOTES

Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Area

Three Shot Dead in Afghan Capital - Voice of America
2 Foreigners Killed in Afghan Capital - New York Times
British Worker Killed in Afghanistan - Daily Telegraph
Two Foreign DHL Executives Killed in Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times
Is Kabul Becoming the New Baghdad? - Daily Telegraph
Family of Murdered Aid Worker Tell of Anger - Daily Telegraph
US Claims Afghan Opium Progress - BBC News
Afghanistan on the Edge of Abyss - China Post opinion pt 1
Afghanistan on the Edge With No Solution - China Post opinion pt 2

Pakistan

Hopeful Signs for Pakistan - National Post editorial

Iraq

Deal on US Presence in Iraq Close to Collapse - The Times
Sunni Party Ends Contacts with US Over Raid in Anbar - Associated Press
US Pledges Support Against Kurdish Rebels - Voice of America
An Orderly End to Iraq War - Financial Times editorial
Christian Martyrs in Iraq - Washington Times opinion

Iran

Nukes: Too Deep to Hit - Newsweek
Iran's Asymmetric Naval Warfare - Washington Institute online book
Hope Goes Up in Opium Smoke - Daily Telegraph
Reaching Out to Iran - International Herald Tribune opinion

The Long War

Air Force Probes General For Actions at Guantanamo - Washington Post
US Army Warns of Twitter Dangers - Agence France-Presse

US Department of Defense

US Plans Separate Nuclear Command - BBC News

United Nations

At the UN, Many Hope For an Obama Win - Washington Post

World

Financial Meltdown Worsens Food Crisis - Washington Post
Rogues Gone Bust - Washington Post opinion
A World in Need of a New Order - Washington Post opinion

Africa

Hard-line Politician May Hold Key to Darfur Conflict - Los Angeles Times
Darfur Clashes Displace Thousands - BBC News
Thousands Flee DR Congo Fighting - BBC News
Life and Death a Matter of Cash in Zimbabwe - Daily Telegraph
Kenya Set to Get Truth Commission - BBC News
Djibouti Says Eritrea Risking War - BBC News

Americas

Venezuela's Chavez Wants to Jail Rival - Reuters
Colombian 'Killings' Shake Army - BBC News
Colombia Spying Row Head Quits - BBC News
Former Student Radical in Runoff for Mayor of Rio - New York Times

Asia Pacific

Bali Bombers' Execution Date Set - BBC News
N. Korea Urged to End Executions - BBC News
Taiwan Protesters Oppose Talks with China - Los Angeles Times

Europe

Mayor of Moscow Exports Russia’s New Nationalism - New York Times
Basques Protest Against Ban on Vote - Reuters

Middle East

Calls for Election as Talks Fail in Israel - The Times
Israeli Party Leader Seeks Early Elections - New York Times
Israel's Livni May Recommend General Election - Los Angeles Times
Israeli Coalition Bid 'Defeated' - BBC News
Israel's Livni Weighs Coalition Options - Reuters
Abbas Boosts West Bank Security - BBC News
No Gloom and Doom in Lebanon - The Independent opinion

South Asia

Christians Face Attacks in Eastern India - Associated Press
Raped Indian Nun Denounces Police - BBC News
Sri Lanka Suspends Casualty Figures - BBC News

BOOKS

Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips

Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.

Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor

This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.

The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West

From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.

Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson

After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.

The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward

Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.

We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway

In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.

In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy

The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.

Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz

Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.

6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.