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QUOTE OF THE DAY
On a Southeast Asian front that's vital yet largely unfamiliar to most Americans, some 500 US Special Operations Forces and their Filipino counterparts have been fighting a different, unconventional - and seemingly successful - war against Islamic terrorist groups with links to Osama bin Laden's al Qaida. The lessons of this relatively low-budget effort could be invaluable as the next US president assumes the task of fighting Islamic extremism with a federal Treasury drained by the nation's economic woes and the Army and Marine Corps strained by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.--Warren Strobel - McClatchy Newspapers
IRAQ
A Critical Stage in Iraq - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion
Iraq hasn't gotten much attention recently in the American presidential campaign, thanks to the reduction in violence there, but US policymakers are increasingly worried about what's ahead.
The negotiations to complete a new status-of-forces agreement for US troops are deadlocked. With a Dec. 31 deadline approaching, Baghdad and Washington seem to be running out of bargaining room. The Iraqis are determined to assert their sovereignty through legal jurisdiction over US forces, while American officials are demanding broad protections from Iraqi law until US troops are gone in 2011.
US officials are warning that if the talks remain stalled, there isn't an easy Plan B, such as a new UN Security Council resolution to replace the one that expires at year's end and now provides the legal mandate for American troops.
"I've tried to make clear the consequences of not getting a SOFA agreement," Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Iraq, told me in a telephone interview yesterday. "The Iraqis should be under no illusion that a rollover of the UN resolution would be an easy option." He said the United States would refuse anything but a clean, one-year extension of the current UN mandate -- meaning that the Iraqis would lose the gains they have won in the new status-of-forces agreement.
More at The Washington Post.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Will Give Arms to Tribal Militias - Karen DeYoung, Washington Post
Pakistan plans to arm tens of thousands of anti-Taliban tribal fighters in its western border region in hopes - shared by the US military - that the nascent militias can replicate the tribal "Awakening" movement that proved decisive in the battle against al-Qaeda in Iraq.
The militias, called lashkars, will receive Chinese-made AK-47 assault rifles and other small arms, a purchase arranged during a visit to Beijing this month by Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistani officials said.
Many Bush administration officials remain skeptical of Pakistan's long-term commitment to fighting the Taliban, al-Qaeda and other extremist groups ensconced in the mountains near the border with Afghanistan. But the decision to arm the lashkars, which emerged as organized fighting forces only in the past few months, is one of several recent actions that have led the Pentagon to believe that the Pakistani effort has become more aggressive.
More at The Washington Post.
Reform of Pakistan's Spy Agency Crucial - Jason Motlagh, Washington Times
The fate of the US-led war in Afghanistan and of stability in this neighboring country may depend to a great extent on efforts to reform Pakistan's controversial spy agency, known in the past for "hunting with the hounds and running with the hares."
US officials have long criticized Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for a dual policy of cracking down on Islamist militancy while supporting militant groups in Afghanistan and Kashmir and allowing al Qaeda and the Taliban to maintain sanctuaries in tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border.
Some US intelligence officials have charged that the ISI was behind the July bombing of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which killed 58 people and wounded 141. A failed attempt by Pakistan's new civilian government to bring the agency under the authority of the Interior Ministry later that month is cited as another sign of the agency's intransigence.
However, some analysts say the ISI's reputation as a rogue operation has been exaggerated. They also point to a recent shakeup of the military command aimed at bringing greater central control and transparency to institutions pivotal to the stability of Pakistan and its neighbors.
More at The Washington Times.
AFGHANISTAN
Afghans to Karzai: You Failed Us - Mark Sappenfield, Christian Science Monitor
Hajji Mohammed Aman sits in the half-light of his west Kabul real estate office and makes a demand of his president.
"When you decide to do something, you have to do it, even if it costs you your life," he says, firmly but without bluster.
The comment hints at why the country that once chose President Hamid Karzai to lead it into a new, democratic future is now turning against him. Both at home and abroad, Mr. Karzai is facing mounting criticism that he has lacked the courage to stop the government's descent into corruption and ineffectiveness.
Karzai's international allies are increasingly unwilling to accept inaction, and with presidential elections a year away, the man who once had an 83 percent approval rating now finds himself politically isolated and needing to resuscitate his image.
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
Nine Afghan Soldiers Die in 'Friendly Fire' Attack by US Warplanes - Tom Coghlan, The Times
American aircraft have killed nine Afghan soldiers in an accidental attack on an army post – the latest in a string of deadly mistakes involving Western forces in Afghanistan.
Afghan officials said that the attack happened overnight on Tuesday in the eastern province of Khost. “Nine have been martyred, three wounded, one critically, in the attack by international forces,” said General Zaher Azimi, a spokesman for the Defence Ministry.
The ministry condemned the attack and said that such incidents would weaken the spirit of the Army, which is trained mostly by US troops. The US military said that its forces “may have mistakenly killed and injured” Afghan soldiers. “As a coalition convoy was returning from a previous operation, they were involved in multiple engagements. As a result of the engagements, soldiers were killed and injured,” it said.
“Initial reports from troops on the ground indicate that this may be a case of mistaken identity on both sides.”
More at The Times, Washington Post and New York Times.
PHILIPPINES
The Philippines: America's Other War on Terrorism - Warren P. Strobel, McClatchy Newspapers
Welcome to America's other war on terror.
Since the Sept. 11 attacks more than seven years ago, President Bush has waged a worldwide assault on Islamic militants from Iraq to Afghanistan to the Horn of Africa that's relied overwhelmingly on US military force, harsh treatment of detainees and tough talk. Winning "hearts and minds," at least until recently, has been an afterthought.
On a Southeast Asian front that's vital yet largely unfamiliar to most Americans, some 500 US Special Operations Forces and their Filipino counterparts have been fighting a different, unconventional - and seemingly successful - war against Islamic terrorist groups with links to Osama bin Laden's al Qaida.
The lessons of this relatively low-budget effort could be invaluable as the next US president assumes the task of fighting Islamic extremism with a federal Treasury drained by the nation's economic woes and the Army and Marine Corps strained by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
More at McClatchy Newspapers.
MEXICO
Rice Visits Mexico for a Meeting About Its Drug War - Marc Lacey, The New York Times
The Bush administration signaled its alarm about Mexico’s vicious drug war by sending the American secretary of state on Wednesday to a two-day meeting on improving cross-border cooperation in the battle against the country’s powerful drug cartels.
The Bush administration increasingly sees the violent clashes in Mexico as a threat to American security, and the lawlessness was high on the agenda when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived on Wednesday in Puerto Vallarta for meetings with her local counterpart, Patricia Espinosa. The Mexicans had sought the high-level visit to press for greater coordination with the United States in their fight against the heavily armed cartels, but the world economic crisis was also discussed.
Ms. Rice’s arrival was the latest in a series of visits this month alone by top-level administration officials. Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey met with his counterpart in Mexico City several weeks back. Last week, John P. Walters, the director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, made the rounds of the Mexican capital.
More at the New York Times and Associated Press.
BALTICS
Joint Chiefs Chairman Stresses NATO Defense for Baltic Region - Thom Shanker, New York Times
The United States and NATO are updating plans for defending allies neighboring Russia and will consider increasing the number of military exercises with the Baltic states, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said here Wednesday on the second and final day of a visit to the region.
The chairman, Adm. Mike Mullen, said the move was in response to Russia’s brief war in August with Georgia, its first post-Soviet military action beyond Russian borders, which sent “a real chill” across NATO and was particularly alarming to those member states closest to Russian territory.
He said it also reflected a desire to incorporate lessons from coalition military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan into NATO planning. “Warfare is changing,” Admiral Mullen said. “And it is important that we update all our planning based on what our capabilities are.”
The effort to update contingency plans, he said, should not be viewed as provocative but as part of the alliance’s determination “to do everything we can to prevent and deter” attack by any potential aggressor.
More at The New York Times.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
3 US Coalition Troops Killed in Afghanistan - Associated Press
US 'Spy Drone' Strikes on Pakistan Kill 11 - Agence France-Presse
Honour Payment for Slain Tribal Leader - The Australian
Honour Payment for Death of Tribal Governor Important - The Australian
Pakistan
Pakistan Asks for Help as Economy Faces Collapse - The Times
Pakistan Asks IMF for Aid to Repay Debt - Associated Press
Iraq
In Sadr City, a Repressed but Growing Rage - Washington Post
Iraqi Cabinet Urges Further Negotiation on Draft Accord - Washington Post
Iraq Leaving Pact's 'Backbone' Untouched - Washington Times
Blow to US-troop Withdrawal from Iraq - The Times
US Warns Iraq to Accept Security Deal - Daily Telegraph
Gates Warns Over Troops in Iraq Pact Delay - Agence France-Presse
Kuwait-Iraq Diplomacy Blooms Again - Los Angeles Times
Russia Backs Keeping US Force in Iraq - New York Times
Bomb Kills 9 People in Baghdad - Associated Press
Iran
Stopping a Nuclear Tehran - Washington Post opinion
Gleeful in Tehran - Washington Times opinion
The Long War
Charges Against 5 Detainees Dropped Temporarily - Washington Post
US Pressed to Turn Over Detainee Papers - Washington Post
Porous Defenses - New York Times editorial
From Beirut to 9/11 - New York Times opinion
From the Beirut Bombing to 9/11 - Wall Street Journal opinion
Lebanon’s Bloody Sunday - New York Times opinion
US Department of Defense
US Air Force Seeks to Fix Nuclear Mission - Christian Science Monitor
Helicopter-plane Osprey Fares Well as Ferry in Iraq - Associated Press
US Intelligence Community
Candidates Eye Better Use of Spies - Washington Times
Africa
NATO Fleet Sails Toward Somalia to Guard Against Piracy - Associated Press
Corruption Fears over UN Aid for Zimbabwe - Daily Telegraph
A Healthy Schism in South Africa - Washington Post opinion
Americas
Policy and Passions Collide in Bolivia - Washington Post
Colombian Cocaine Ring Linked to Hezbollah - Los Angeles Times
Mexico Arrests Major Drug-trafficking Suspect - Los Angeles Times
Mexico's Spreading Drug Violence - Los Angeles Times editorial
Asia Pacific
Indonesia Arrests 5 Terrorism Suspects - New York Times
Thais Demand Thaksin Extradition - The Times
Thai Protesters Accost Prime Minister - New York Times
Australia Troop Withdrawal From East Timor - The Australian
Europe
World Steps in with $4.5 Billion for Georgia - The Times
Ukrainian Leaders at War as Economy Falters - Daily Telegraph
A Neighbor Growls, and Azerbaijan Reassesses - New York Times
Middle East
Israel's Peace Paradox - Los Angeles Times editorial
South Asia
Sri Lanka: Tamil Tigers Take War to Freighters - The Times
Sri Lankan War Roils Indian Politics - Christian Science Monitor
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.