--General Anthony Zinni- Naval Institute Forum, Sept. 2003
COMPLEX OPERATIONS
Standard Warfare May Be Eclipsed By Nation-Building - Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post
The Army on Monday will unveil an unprecedented doctrine that declares nation-building missions will probably become more important than conventional warfare and defines "fragile states" that breed crime, terrorism and religious and ethnic strife as the greatest threat to US national security.
The doctrine, which has generated intense debate in the US military establishment and government, holds that in coming years, American troops are not likely to engage in major ground combat against hostile states as they did in Iraq and Afghanistan, but instead will frequently be called upon to operate in lawless areas to safeguard populations and rebuild countries.
Such "stability operations" will last longer and ultimately contribute more to the military's success than "traditional combat operations," according to the Army's new Stability Operations Field Manual, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post.
More at The Washington Post.
AFGHANISTAN
War on Taliban Cannot be Won, Says Army Chief - Christina Lamb, The Times
Britain's most senior military commander in Afghanistan has warned that the war against the Taliban cannot be won. Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith said the British public should not expect a “decisive military victory” but should be prepared for a possible deal with the Taliban.
His assessment followed the leaking of a memo from a French diplomat who claimed that Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, the British ambassador in Kabul, had told him the current strategy was “doomed to fail”.
Carleton-Smith, commander of 16 Air Assault Brigade, which has just completed its second tour of Afghanistan, said it was necessary to “lower our expectations”. He said: “We’re not going to win this war. It’s about reducing it to a manageable level of insurgency that’s not a strategic threat and can be managed by the Afghan army.”
The brigadier added: “We may well leave with there still being a low but steady ebb of rural insurgency . . . I don’t think we should expect that when we go there won’t be roaming bands of armed men in this part of the world. That would be unrealistic and probably incredible.”
More at The Times.
A Manhunt or a Vital War? - Robert Kaplan, New York Times opinion
The rising violence in Afghanistan and fractious political situation in Pakistan have become leading issues in the American presidential campaign and the debates between the candidates. Indeed, after seven years of war in the region, it’s time to ask a very impolite set of questions: If we did, by chance, capture or kill Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, would Afghanistan still matter? Would there be public support for sending more American troops to stabilize a country that has rarely in its history enjoyed strong central government and that abuts a tribal area in Pakistan that neither the British nor the Pakistanis have ever been able to control? Is the war in Afghanistan, deep down, anything more than a manhunt for a handful of individuals? And if it is, how do we define victory there?
After all, Afghanistan is not the only ungovernable space with an Islamic setting around the world that can provide a base for terrorists who want to attack the United States. The world is full of them: from Somalia to the southern Philippines to the Indonesian archipelago. Better, perhaps, not to be tied down with thousands of troops in one or two places, and instead use sophisticated, high-tech covert means to hunt down hostile groups wherever they crop up. The problem with Osama bin Laden, one could argue, was not that he had a haven in Afghanistan in the 1990s but that he was not pursued there with sufficient vigor.
So, here’s my answer: In fact, Afghanistan is more than a manhunt, and it does matter, for reasons that have not been fully fleshed out by policy makers or the military.
More at The New York Times.
Winning the Battle, Losing the Faith - Nathaniel Fick and Vikram Singh, New York Times opinion
"The lion of the people will turn on you,” warned Mullah Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, a former Taliban foreign minister, as we sipped green tea at his home in Kabul a few weeks ago. He noted that while Americans had been shocked by a series of spectacular insurgent attacks over the summer, the United States-led coalition faced a far greater danger than the resurgent Taliban: growing despair among average Afghans that their government is fundamentally illegitimate.
Every aspect of sound counterinsurgency strategy revolves around bolstering the government’s legitimacy. When ordinary people lose their faith in their government, then they also lose faith in the foreigners who prop it up. The day that happens across Afghanistan is the day we lose the war.
With more than 230 military deaths since January, this year is on track to be the deadliest yet for the coalition in Afghanistan. July alone saw a brazen attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, the deaths of nine Americans at a combat outpost in Nuristan and the killing of 10 French soldiers on the outskirts of Kabul. The response has been a growing consensus around sending two to four more combat brigades to Afghanistan - 8,000 to 16,000 troops.
Although larger and more populous than Iraq, Afghanistan has fewer than half the coalition forces, and critical programs to advise the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police operate at one-third to one-half of their authorized strength. As the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Adm. Michael Mullen, told Congress last year, “In Afghanistan we do what we can; in Iraq we do what we must.”
More at The New York Times.
Reports Link Karzai’s Brother to Heroin Trade - James Risen, New York Times
When Afghan security forces found an enormous cache of heroin hidden beneath concrete blocks in a tractor-trailer outside Kandahar in 2004, the local Afghan commander quickly impounded the truck and notified his boss.
Before long, the commander, Habibullah Jan, received a telephone call from Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Hamid Karzai, asking him to release the vehicle and the drugs, Mr. Jan later told American investigators, according to notes from the debriefing obtained by The New York Times. He said he complied after getting a phone call from an aide to President Karzai directing him to release the truck.
Two years later, American and Afghan counternarcotics forces stopped another truck, this time near Kabul, finding more than 110 pounds of heroin. Soon after the seizure, United States investigators told other American officials that they had discovered links between the drug shipment and a bodyguard believed to be an intermediary for Ahmed Wali Karzai, according to a participant in the briefing.
The assertions about the involvement of the president’s brother in the incidents were never investigated, according to American and Afghan officials, even though allegations that he has benefited from narcotics trafficking have circulated widely in Afghanistan.
More at The New York Times.
9-11 AFTERMATH
He Told Us to Go Shopping. Now the Bill Is Due. - Andrew J. Bacevich, Washington Post opinion
It's widely thought that the biggest gamble President Bush ever took was deciding to invade Iraq in 2003. It wasn't. His riskiest move was actually one made right after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks when he chose not to mobilize the country or summon his fellow citizens to any wartime economic sacrifice. Bush tried to remake the world on the cheap, and as the bill grew larger, he still refused to ask Americans to pay up. During this past week, that gamble collapsed, leaving the rest of us to sort through the wreckage.
To understand this link between today's financial crisis and Bush's wider national security decisions, we need to go back to 9/11 itself. From the very outset, the president described the "war on terror" as a vast undertaking of paramount importance. But he simultaneously urged Americans to carry on as if there were no war. "Get down to Disney World in Florida," he urged just over two weeks after 9/11. "Take your families and enjoy life, the way we want it to be enjoyed." Bush certainly wanted citizens to support his war -- he just wasn't going to require them actually to do anything. The support he sought was not active but passive. It entailed not popular engagement but popular deference. Bush simply wanted citizens (and Congress) to go along without asking too many questions.
More at The Washington Post.
IRAQ
Turkey Presses Iraqis After Attack by Rebels - Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post
Turkey pressed neighboring Iraq on Saturday to take action against Kurdish rebels after they killed 15 Turkish soldiers near a border outpost, in the rebels' single deadliest attack against Turkish forces this year.
Retaliatory strikes by Turkish warplanes, helicopter gunships and heavy artillery into northern Iraq killed at least 23 of the Kurdish rebels, Brig. Gen. Metin Gurak, a Turkish military spokesman, told reporters in Ankara, the capital.
Turkey said its forces were seeking two soldiers abducted during the fighting. A local civilian official at the scene said helicopters were patrolling the skies over the border.
More at the Washington Post, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Voice of America, Daily Telegraph and Agence France-Presse.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Relentless Taliban Just Keep Coming - The Times
Officials say Taliban Mad Over Alleged US Strike - Associated Press
Peace Under Friendly Fire - New York Times opinion
In Wartime, Finding Greener Pastures - Washington Post opinion
Iraq
Iraq too Dangerous for Many Professionals - Los Angeles Times
Iran
US Halts Plans for Diplomat Outpost - Associated Press
Iran's Liquidation Sale? - Washington Times opinion
Complex Operations
N. Ireland COIN Lessons Learned - Washington Post
The Long War
Al-Qaida: US Economic Crisis Equals Muslim Victory - Associated Press
Britons Accused Over Roadside Bomb Network - The Times
How bin Laden Got Away - New York Post opinion
The War of Ideas
Shut Up, Arab Style? - Washington Times opinion
US Department of Defense
Training: Fighting Insurgents in Baghdad, USA - The Times
Dangerous Move for NORAD? - Washington Times
UK Intelligence
There’s No Hiding Place as Spy HQ Plans to See All - The Times
Islam
Spare Me the Sermon On Muslim Women - Washington Post opinion
Africa
Somali Pirates Vow to Stand and Fight - The Times
Developed Countries Push Back vs. Pirates - Associated Press
Zimbabwe: Mugabe's Bid to Win Back Foreign Aid - Daily Telegraph
Americas
Brazil's Lula Takes Center Stage in Latin America - Los Angeles Times
Asia Pacific
Taiwanese Leader Hails Weapons Deal With US - Washington Post
Arms Deal to Taiwan Riles China - New York Times
Report: North Korean Leader Appears in Public - Associated Press
Thai Police Arrest Top Anti-gov't Protest Leader - Associated Press
Europe
Georgians Fear Russia Won't Fulfill Pullout - Washington Times
Russia, Beyond the Bluster - Washington Post opinion
Let Georgia be a Guiding Light - Daily Telegraph opinion
Middle East
Mr. Olmert's Farewell - Washington Post editorial
South Asia
New India Rises, and So Do Slums - Washington Post
India: Nuclear Deal Strengthens US Ties - Agence France-Presse
Glitch Delays Signing Of India Nuclear Pact - Washington Post
Curfew Imposed in Indian Kashmir Ahead of Rally - Associated Press
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
The War Within - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 U.S. troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
