--John Burns - The New York Times
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
Afghans’ Toll Shakes Generals - John Burns, New York Times
A generation ago, when the Soviets were in Afghanistan, they lost the battle for hearts and minds quickly by showing scant concern for human rights. Estimates run as high as 1.5 million dead and 10,000 villages destroyed. Now, Americans labor in the shadow of that history, and that helps to explain why alarm bells are ringing in the NATO headquarters here over the latest accounts of air raids that went wrong, causing dozens of civilian casualties.
When such things happen, within an Afghan population deeply traumatized by the Soviet years, there is a quick resort to comparisons of the past occupier with the present one, even though the scale of casualties caused by Western forces - even taking the worst figures compiled by human rights groups - are but a fraction of the abuses committed by the Russians.
For Gen. David D. McKiernan, the American who commands 65,000 foreign troops from 39 nations in Afghanistan, concern over civilian casualties, especially from aircraft-launched bombs and missiles, has become the issue of the moment. Only if it is tackled effectively, senior officers here are now saying, can the hearts and minds of 30 million Afghans - many of them increasingly skeptical about the Western military presence, and angry about the civilian death toll - be won.
More at The New York Times.
Pakistan and Taliban Battle for Key Tunnel - Dean Nelson and Daud Khattak, The Times
The Pakistani army is locked in a fierce battle to stop fuel and arms supply routes to British and American forces in Afghanistan falling under Taliban control.
Last week Pakistani troops launched a series of raids on villages around Peshawar, capital of the North West Frontier Province, in pursuit of a Taliban commander blamed for bomb attacks that have destroyed more than 40 fuel tankers supplying Nato troops in Afghanistan.
They claim that Mohammad Tariq Alfridi, the commander, has seized terrain around the mile-long Kohat tunnel, south of Peshawar, three times since January. He has coordinated suicide bomb attacks and rocket strikes against convoys emerging from it.
The Taliban attacks stretch all the way south from the Afghan border to Karachi, where weapons, ammunition, food and oil supplies arrive at the docks before being transported by road.
More at The Times.
IRAQ
Sadr Loyalists Protest Proposed US Presence - Ernesto Londoño and Qais Mizher, Washington Post
Thousands of Iraqis loyal to Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr demonstrated Saturday in Baghdad against a proposed deal that would allow US troops to stay in Iraq after the end of the year.
The protesters, waving Iraqi flags and banners bearing messages critical of the United States, marched from Sadr City in eastern Baghdad to a large square in the city's center, where Sadrist leaders delivered fiery speeches.
"No, no agreement!" the protesters chanted. "No, no America!"
More at the Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, New York Times and Voice of America.
Documents Say Iran Aids Militias From Iraq - Mark Mazzetti, New York Times
American officials have long cited Iranian training and weapons as reasons for the lethality of attacks by Shiite fighters in Iraq. Iranian officials deny that such training takes place.
Now, more than 80 pages of newly declassified intelligence documents for the first time describe in detail an elaborate network used by Iraqis to gain entry into Iran and train under Iranian supervision. They offer the most comprehensive account to date to support American claims about Iranian efforts to build a proxy force in Iraq. Those claims have become highly politicized, with Bush administration critics charging that accounts of Iranian involvement have been exaggerated.
The prisoners’ accounts cannot be independently verified. Yet the detainees gave strikingly similar details about training compounds in Iran, a clandestine network of safe houses in Iran and Iraq they used to reach the camps and intra-Shiite tensions at the camps between the Arab Iraqis and their Persian Iranian trainers.
More at The New York Times.
Where did al-Qaeda in Iraq Go Wrong? - Tom Ricks, Washington Post
Even before the US military announced last week that it had killed the alleged No. 2 leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, the group had been widely seen as on the ropes. Where did al-Qaeda in Iraq go wrong? In a paper prepared for the recent annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, the Australian political scienist Andrew Phillips argues persuasively that, by their nature, al-Qaeda affiliates tend to alienate their hosts. So in the "long war" against jihadism, time may ultimately be on our side -- if we show patience, tolerance and a willingness to listen to local grievances.
More at The Washington Post.
NORTH KOREA
Important News Expected From North Korea - Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times
North Korean diplomats abroad have been told to refrain from traveling and prepare for an "important announcement," Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported Saturday.
The report prompted another round of speculation that North Korea's secretive leader, Kim Jong Il, has died or is incapacitated. The newspaper did not indicate when the announcement might be made.
In recent weeks, Pyongyang had denied reports that the 66-year-old Kim was seriously ill after a stroke.
When the nation's founder and father of the present leader, Kim Il Sung, died in 1994, North Korean officials were told to stand by for an important announcement.
But North Korea experts said Saturday that the announcement could be related to other international matters. Pyongyang has been expected for some time to schedule a congress of the ruling Workers' Party, an event that could be used to announce a new economic policy as well as to clear up uncertainty about the succession of power. The last such event was the sixth party congress in 1980, when Kim Jong Il was officially designated his father's successor.
More at the Los Angeles Times, The Times and Daily Telegraph.
UNITED STATES
The Speech That Could Close the Deal - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion
We have completed the "Survivor" phase of the presidential campaign, in which pundits and pollsters waited for one of the candidates to make a gaffe in the debates so they could vote him off the island. Now, with just over two weeks left, maybe we can focus on the issue of leadership for a country in deep, deep trouble.
Despite Barack Obama's big lead in the polls, he hasn't yet made a decisive case for how he would govern in this time of crisis. His demeanor is cool and calm, his intellect razor-sharp, and if smart guys were automatically good leaders, it would be game, set and match for Obama.
But leadership is something more mysterious, and it comes in odd packages -- the brooding, depressive Abraham Lincoln; the patrician Franklin Roosevelt; the genial ex-actor Ronald Reagan; the priapic good ol' boy Bill Clinton. What is inside the Obama package? We still need to know more...
The best way for Obama to signal continuity would be to do publicly what I'm told he has already begun privately -- which is to express confidence in the two key leaders at the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Bob Gates and Centcom's commander, Gen. David Petraeus.
Members of Obama's inner circle have discussed the possibility of asking Gates to stay on for a transitional year or so; Obama's key defense adviser, former Navy secretary Richard Danzig, has even floated the idea directly. This transition would make sense for the country, and Gates would probably say yes. As for Petraeus, Obama is said to have signaled that he would listen carefully to military advice about Iraq and Afghanistan rather than make radical changes.
More at The Washington Post.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Afghanistan: Don't Rush for the Exit - International Herald Tribune opinion
'Mission Possible' in Afghanistan - The Times opinion
NATO Pessimism: At a Loss in Afghanistan - Der Spiegel opinion
Pakistan
Rebuffed by China, Pakistan May Seek IMF Aid - New York Times
Pakistan Gets Power Plant Deal - Associated Press
Pakistan Unhinged - Washington Times opinion
Iraq
'I Can't Live Here Anymore' - Washington Post
Iran
Iran's Economy Runs Out of Steam - Forbes
Power and Politics in Iran - Foreign Policy
Iran to Stop Executing Children - Daily Telegraph
New Way to End Iran's Nuke Quest - Jerusalem Post opinion
US Department of Defense
Pentagon Has An Image Problem Abroad - World Politics Review opinion
Homeland Security
'Ft. Dix Six' Informants in Hot Seat Too - Los Angeles Times
Airport Security in America is a Sham - The Atlantic opinion
Turn Terrorist Detainees Loose? - Washington Times opinion
United States
Arduous Transition Awaits Next President - Washington Post
Bush's Successor Faces Mideast Conflicts - Washington Times
FBI Struggles to Handle Wave of Financial Fraud Cases - New York Times
Restoring America's Reputation - Los Angeles Times editorial
McCain Really is a Hero - Los Angeles Times opinion
Africa
Rebel Called Terror Aims to Topple ANC - The Times
In S. Africa, Looking Beyond ANC - Washington Post
Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Blames Lack of Trust for Breakdown - VOA
Zimbabwe Opposition Upbeat Over Power Share - Reuters
Zimbabwe: Aid Agencies Forced Into Cash Crisis - Daily Telegraph
Zimbabwe Talks Fail... What Next? - Time
Africa and Our Election - Washington Times opinion
Americas
Venezuela: Oil-Fueled Nation Feels Pinch - Washington Post
Venezuela to Buy Russian Tanks, Armored Vehicles - Associated Press
Chavez's Path to Self-destruction? - Washington Times opinion
Mexican Border City Desperate to Recruit Police - Associated Press
Mexico City Mayor Aims High - Los Angeles Times
A Growing Divide at the Border - Washington Post
US Trade Move Shakes Bolivia - Washington Post
Asia Pacific
Wary of Islam, China Tightens a Vise of Rules - New York Times
The Caucasus
Russian Troops Killed in Ambush in Caucasus - Voice of America
Urban Renewal and Partial Amnesia in Chechnya - New York Times
Europe
Putin’s Deputy Rules Out Fresh Attacks - The Times
Serbian Leaders Formally Reconcile - Voice of America
Fighting Italian Mob with Words - Los Angeles Times
Mikheil Saakashvili: An American Friend- New York TImes interview
Where Georgia Stands - Washington Post editorial
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
