--Richard Beeston - The Times / The Australian
IRAQ
US in Firmer Commitment to Iraq Pullout Date - Thom Shanker and Steven Lee Meyers, New York Times
A sweeping accord between Iraq and the United States would set the end of 2011 as a concrete date for American withdrawal from Iraq, based on the performance and increasing capacity of the Iraqi security forces, according to a draft of the agreement.
The accord, which the Bush administration has been detailing in a series of briefings for lawmakers and their staffs, reflects several concessions to the Iraqi government. It lists specific dates for American forces to first move out of cities and then to leave Iraq, instead of the vague “aspirational” timelines for reductions of American forces that had been pressed by the Bush administration.
But while giving specific dates, the draft does state that these “date goals” could be changed by mutual agreement, and might be accelerated or delayed depending on the ability of the Iraqis to take over the security mission and on “the conditions.”
In a significant breakthrough after months of halting negotiations, the agreement would make private American security companies and other contractors subject to Iraqi justice in criminal cases.
More at The New York Times.
US, Iraqi Officials Question Terms of Draft Security Deal - Mary Beth Sheridan and Karen DeYoung, Washington Post
A number of senior Iraqi and US politicians expressed strong reservations Friday about the terms of a draft agreement that gives Iraq the "primary right" -- subject to US acquiescence -- to try American soldiers accused of serious crimes committed during off-duty hours outside US military bases here.
Some political leaders in Baghdad, who got their first look at the controversial agreement to extend the US military presence in Iraq beyond 2008, said it did not go far enough in guaranteeing Iraqi sovereignty. The bilateral accord was presented Friday to the Political Council for National Security, an advisory body including political, legislative and judicial leaders, whose support is necessary before it can be submitted to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's cabinet and then to parliament for final approval. After an initial review, the council said it would continue discussions next week.
More at The Washington Post.
Accords Let Baghdad Try Soldiers - Kelly Hearn, Washington Times
The Bush administration has agreed to allow Iraqi courts to try some US soldiers and civilians accused of serious crimes, require U.S. forces to consult Iraqis before engaging in combat and return control of Iraqi airspace but has built in loopholes to protect US interests, according to drafts of two accords obtained by The Washington Times.
"It's smoke and mirrors," said Feisal Istrabadi, a former ambassador to the United Nations for Iraq. "There is no actual substance to Iraqi sovereignty in these agreements."
A long-awaited and politically contentious status of forces agreement (SOFA) states that both sides will work to protect Iraq from "internal and external threats against the Republic of Iraq and to cement cooperation to defeat al Qaeda in Iraq and other outlawed groups."
More at The Washington Times.
Maliki Leads Iraqis Out of the Shadows - Richard Beeston, The Times / The Australian
Donald Rumsfeld would instantly recognise the extraordinary state of modern Iraq. The disgraced former US defence secretary has not been anywhere near the country since he left office two years ago. Few Iraqis - or Americans - would welcome him back today.
Yet it was Rumsfeld who envisaged a post-invasion Iraq that would have a weak but functioning government, could begin to exploit its oil riches and was protected by a fledgling Iraqi security force, as US and British troops withdrew. Unfortunately for the former Pentagon chief, the Iraqi people and US forces, his vision has taken 5 1/2 long, bloody and costly years to become reality.
But the signs are unmistakeable. It is impossible to move in Baghdad without being confronted with the seismic change in the balance of power.
Only a year ago it was mainly US troops who provided what little security the capital enjoyed. Power resided with the US ambassador and military commander and was exercised from the US embassy annex, Saddam Hussein's giant marble-tiled palace on the Tigris river, from where thousands of US officials and officers ran the country.
More at The Australian.
Iraq's Maliki Criticizes US Commander's Comments - Ned Parker and Said Rifai, Los Angeles Times
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki warned in comments broadcast Friday that the top US commander in Iraq "had risked his position" by suggesting that Iran tried to bribe Iraqi lawmakers to oppose a security agreement with the United States.
Maliki's remarks were aired on state television as he convened the leaders of Iraq's political blocs to review the security agreement that would sanction US troops staying in Iraq after a United Nations mandate expires Dec. 31.
The meeting of leaders, known as the Political Council for National Security, ended with plans to meet again Sunday, according to Haidar Abadi, a member of parliament from Maliki's Islamic Dawa Party. Abadi said he did not expect the discussions to move quickly after Friday's session.
US Army Gen. Ray Odierno, who took command of US forces last month, told the Washington Post in an interview published Monday that American intelligence reports alleged that Iran had attempted to bribe Iraqi lawmakers to sabotage the agreement.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS
US Strike Is Said to Kill Qaeda Figure in Pakistan - Pir Zubair Shah, New York Times
A missile attack from a remotely piloted American aircraft is believed to have killed a senior member of Al Qaeda in South Waziristan on Thursday, a former member of a militant group in the region said in an interview.
The operative, Khalid Habib, an Egyptian who was chief of operations in Pakistan’s tribal region, is described by the Central Intelligence Agency as the fourth-ranking person in the Qaeda hierarchy.
The attack, on the village of Taparghai, killed four people, some of them Arabs, according to initial reports on Thursday.
A Pakistani intelligence official declined Friday to confirm the death of Mr. Habib. An American official involved in the campaign against Al Qaeda in Pakistan’s tribal areas said he could not confirm the report that Mr. Habib had died. It often takes American officials some time to determine the success or failure of attacks by remotely piloted aircraft in the rugged and remote terrain of the tribal areas.
More at The New York Times.
Pakistan Wants Taliban Talks - Bruce Loudon, The Australian
Peace talks with the Taliban were back on the agenda last night as a historic secret session of Pakistan's parliament revealed leaders of the country's ruling coalition now favoured dialogue over military action.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, leader of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party that is a key component of the coalition dominated by the Pakistan People's Party, emerged as "a spokesman for the Taliban" yesterday as the parliament concluded its second week of debate on how to deal with the jihadi militants sweeping the country.
A spokesman for the Pakistan Taliban added to the momentum for negotiations by saying "unconditional talks" could be held if the Government stopped its military operations. Maulvi Omar, speaking from a hideout in the strategic valley of Swat, where intense fighting is going on between the Pakistan army and the militants, said peace talks would start if military action was halted.
"We are willing to negotiate with the Government... we are also willing to lay down our arms once the military ceases operations against us," he said.
Negotiations are strongly opposed by the US, Pakistan's key ally in the conflict, and by elements in the army that remain loyal to ousted former president Pervez Musharraf.
The mood for change in tactics against the jihadis came as analysts warned Pakistan's economic plight was eroding its ability to confront the jihadi militants.
More at The Australian.
IRAN
A Hard Line on Iran - Greg Sheridan, The Australian opinion
Foreign Minister Stephen Smith announced ramped-up sanctions against Iran in parliament this week.
They are important in themselves and demonstrate that the Rudd Government judges Iran to be one of the two or three most important and urgent geo-strategic issues today.
The Labor Government is right in this judgment. However, the sanctions decision is also highly significant for what it tells us of Kevin Rudd's foreign policy more generally. On this central decision, Rudd and Smith have decided, quite deliberately, to move beyond the authority of the UN.
This is an important and seminal moment. If John Howard had done this, there would be predictable outcries from the usual suspects - international relations academics, non-government organisations and the Left more generally - that this was a rejection of multilateralism and a sign of cowboy diplomacy in thrall to the neo-conservative militarism of George W. Bush.
More at The Australian.
THE LONG WAR
Al-Qaeda Web Forums Abruptly Taken Offline - Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post
Four of the five main online forums that al-Qaeda's media wing uses to distribute statements by Osama bin Laden and other extremists have been disabled since mid-September, monitors of the Web sites say.
The disappearance of the forums on Sept. 10 -- and al-Qaeda's apparent inability to restore them or create alternate online venues, as it has before -- has curbed the organization's dissemination of the words and images of its fugitive leaders. On Sept. 29, a statement by the al-Fajr Media Center, a distribution network created by supporters of al-Qaeda and other Sunni extremist groups, said the forums had disappeared "for technical reasons," and it urged followers not to trust look-alike sites.
For al-Qaeda, "these sites are the equivalent of pentagon.mil, whitehouse.gov, att.com," said Evan F. Kohlmann, an expert on online al-Qaeda operations who has advised the FBI and others. With just one authorized al-Qaeda site still in business, "this has left al-Qaeda's propaganda strategy hanging by a very narrow thread."
More at The Washington Post.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
UK Army Chief Believes in 'Surge' - The Times
Afghanistan Officials Say 17 Civilians Killed in Fighting - Los Angeles Times
Civilian Deaths in NATO Clash Investigated - Associated Press
Pakistan
Pakistan Extends Detention of American - Associated Press
A Pakistan Clarification - Wall Street Journal editorial
Iraq
Muqtada al-Sadr Urges Rejection of US-Iraqi Pact - Associated Press
Childhood Cut Short in Baghdad - Los Angeles Times
The Long War
Detainee's Time Served Is Challenged - Washington Post
Campaigns Agree on Homeland Security - Washington Times
United Nations
3 Nations Win Security Council Seats - New York Times
Iceland, Iran Lose Bids to Join UN Security Council - Washington Post
Iceland Frozen Out in Attempt to Win UN Post - The Times
World
'Axis of Diesel' Forced to Change - The Times
Africa
Rape Victims’ Words Help Jolt Congo Into Change - New York Times
Aid Withheld as Ethiopia Denies Famine Crisis - The Times
Americas
Mexican Drug Wars, Nearly 400 Dead in Two Weeks - Agence France-Presse
Mexico Says US Journalist Was Killed by a Protester - New York Times
Asia Pacific
Olympic Media Rules Preserved in China - Washington Post
North Korea Sticks to Pact, US Says - Reuters
Europe
Georgia's Indelible Ethnic Lines - Washington Post
Rival Leaders Seek IMF Aid for Ukraine - Washington Post
Political Turmoil Jeopardizes Financial Relief for Ukraine - New York Times
Accusation Against Writer Reopens Traumas of Czech Past - New York Times
9/11 Attacks ‘Helped Secure Peace in Ireland’ - The Times
The Axis of Moscow - Wall Street Journal editorial
Middle East
Divide Between Troubled Jerusalem’s East and West - New York Times
BOOKS
Why Vietnam Matters: An Eyewitness Account of Lessons Not Learned - Rufus Phillips
Phillips details how the legendary Edward G. Lansdale helped the South Vietnamese gain and consolidate their independence between 1954 and 1956, and how this later changed to a reliance on American conventional warfare with its highly destructive firepower. He reasons that our failure to understand the Communists, our South Vietnamese allies, or even ourselves took us down the wrong road. In summing up US errors in Vietnam, Phillips draws parallels with the American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan and suggests changes in the US approach. Known for his intellectual integrity and firsthand, long-term knowledge of what went on in Vietnam, the author offers lessons for today in this trenchant account.
Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq - Peter Mansoor
This is a unique contribution to the burgeoning literature on the Iraq war, analyzing the day-to-day performance of a US brigade in Baghdad during 2004-2005. Mansoor uses a broad spectrum of sources to address the military, political and cultural aspects of an operation undertaken with almost no relevant preparation, which tested officers and men to their limits and generated mistakes and misjudgments on a daily basis. The critique is balanced, perceptive and merciless - and Mansoor was the brigade commander. Military history is replete with command memoirs. Most are more or less self-exculpatory. Even the honest ones rarely achieve this level of analysis. The effect is like watching a surgeon perform an operation on himself. Mansoor has been simultaneously a soldier and a scholar, able to synergize directly his military and academic experiences.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around - and the choice now facing America. We interpret reality through the clouded prism of our own experience, so it is unsurprising that Bing West sees Iraq through the lens of Vietnam. He served as a Marine officer there, and he thinks politicians and the media caused the American public to turn against a war that could have been won. Now a correspondent for the Atlantic, West has made 15 reporting trips to Iraq over the last six years and is almost as personally invested in the current conflict as he was in Vietnam; this book, his third on Iraq, is his attempt to ensure that the "endgame" in Iraq turns out better than in his last war.
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war. Linda Robinson conducted extensive interviews with Petraeus and his subordinate commanders and spent weeks with key US and Iraqi divisions. The result is the only book that ties together military operations in Iraq and the internecine political drama that is at the heart of the civil war. Replete with dramatic battles, behind-doors confrontations, and astute analysis, the book tells the full story of the Iraq War’s endgame, and lays out the options that will be facing the next president.
The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 US troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election. As violence in Iraq reaches unnerving levels in 2006, a second front in the war rages at the highest levels of the Bush administration. In his fourth book on President George W. Bush, Bob Woodward takes readers deep inside the tensions, secret debates, unofficial backchannels, distrust and determination within the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, the intelligence agencies and the US military headquarters in Iraq. With unparalleled intimacy and detail, this gripping account of a president at war describes a period of distress and uncertainty within the US government from 2006 through mid-2008. The White House launches a secret strategy review that excludes the military. General George Casey, the commander in Iraq, believes that President Bush does not understand the war and eventually concludes he has lost the president's confidence. The Joint Chiefs of Staff also conduct a secret strategy review that goes nowhere. On the verge of revolt, they worry that the military will be blamed for a failure in Iraq.
We Are Soldiers Still: A Journey Back to the Battlefields of Vietnam - Harold Moore and Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results. It would be a monumental task for Moore and Galloway to top their classic 1992 memoir. But they come close in this sterling sequel, which tells the backstory of two of the Vietnam War's bloodiest battles (in which Moore participated as a lieutenant colonel), their first book and a 1993 ABC-TV documentary that brought them back to the battlefield. Moore's strong first-person voice reviews the basics of the November 1965 battles, part of the 34-day Battle of the Ia Drang Valley. Among other things, Moore and Galloway (who covered the battle for UPI) offer portraits of two former enemy commanders, generals Nguyen Huu An and Chu Huy Man, whom the authors met - and bonded with - nearly three decades after the battle. This book proves again that Moore is an exceptionally thoughtful, compassionate and courageous leader (he was one of a handful of army officers who studied the history of the Vietnam wars before he arrived) and a strong voice for reconciliation and for honoring the men with whom he served.
In a Time of War: The Proud and Perilous Journey of West Point' Class of 2002 - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic. Most come from career military families and hold conservative opinions. Murphy describes their four years at West Point with respect even when discussing their love lives and marriages. All yearn for battle, and most get their wish. The book's best passages describe the confusion of moving to Iraq or Afghanistan and fighting insurgents, for which they lack both training and equipment. All feel something is not right but concentrate on the job at hand; some inevitably die or are grievously wounded.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq? Metz concludes that the United States has a long-standing, continuing problem “developing sound assumptions when the opponent operates within a different psychological and cultural framework.” He sees a pattern of misjudgments about Saddam and Iraq based on Western cultural and historical bias and a pervasive faith in the superiority of America’s worldview and institutions. This myopia contributed to America being caught off guard by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, then underestimating his longevity, and finally miscalculating the likelihood of a stable and democratic Iraq after he was toppled. With lessons for all readers concerned about America’s role in the world, Dr. Metz’s important new work will especially appeal to scholars and students of strategy and international security studies, as well as to military professionals and DOD civilians. With a foreword by Colin S. Gray.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
