... the recent past vividly demonstrated the consequences of failing adequately to address the dangers posed by insurgencies or failing states. Terrorist networks can find sanctuary within the borders of a weak nation and strength within the chaos of social breakdown. A nuclear-armed state could collapse into chaos, and criminality. Let's be honest with ourselves. The most likely catastrophic threats to our homeland - for example, an American city poisoned or reduced to rubble by a terrorist attack - are more likely to emanate from failing states than from aggressor states.
The kinds of capabilities needed to deal with these scenarios cannot be considered exotic distractions or temporary diversions. We do not have the luxury of opting out because they do not conform to preferred notions of the American way of war.
--Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, National Defense University
AFGHANISTAN
Insurgents in Afghanistan Are Gaining, Petraeus Says - Carlotta Gall, New York Times
As he prepares to take up his post as head of Central Command, Gen. David H. Petraeus said in an interview this week that he expected the fight against the insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan to get worse before it got better.
“Obviously the trends in Afghanistan have been in the wrong direction, and I think everyone is rightly concerned about them,” said General Petraeus, who as the commander of forces in Iraq oversaw the troop “surge” that has been credited with helping to reduce the violence there.
Turning things around in Afghanistan and Pakistan would require taking away militant sanctuaries and strongholds that the insurgents would defend tenaciously, he said. “Certainly in Afghanistan, wresting control of certain areas from the Taliban will be very difficult,” he said.
The same went for Pakistan, he said, where extremism presented a deadly threat, graphically highlighted by the recent Marriott Hotel bombing. “In both places, in certain areas, the going may be tougher before it gets easier,” he said.
More at The New York Times.
Military Sees Window to Adjust Afghanistan Plan - Gordon Lubold, Christian Science Monitor
The US military is working to put a new strategy in place for Afghanistan and Pakistan that could allow it to expand airfields, preposition military forces and equipment, and prepare for a more robust effort soon against Islamist extremists in the region.
Frustrated for years by a lack of direction from the White House on Afghanistan, many defense officials say time is of the essence in developing a new way forward and having it ready to implement as soon as a new president is seated and can agree to it.
The military sees this period - as one administration is ending and another is set to begin - as an opportunity to offer the next president an Afghanistan strategy less shaped by lofty democratic ideals and more by what Pentagon strategists believe can actually be achieved there.
The aim for now is to put the pieces in place so that a new strategy can be "turned on" as soon as possible.
More at The Christian Science Monitor.
Trio of Warlords Blamed for Surge in Afghanistan Violence - Greg Miller, Los Angeles Times
The escalating insurgency in Afghanistan is being spearheaded by a trio of warlords who came to prominence in the CIA-backed war to oust the Soviets but who now direct attacks against US forces from havens in Pakistan, according to US military and intelligence officials.
Militant groups led by the three veteran mujahedin are behind a sharp increase this year in the number and sophistication of attacks in Afghanistan and pose a major challenge to President Bush's hope of stabilizing the country by deploying thousands of additional troops.
Despite a flurry of US airstrikes against their organizations and million-dollar bounties on their heads, the Pashtun chieftains have been able to operate, and even expand their networks, largely unmolested from bases spread along the border with Pakistan.
US intelligence officials have lamented the difficulty of tracking down Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. But the hunt for the three warlords has in some ways been even more frustrating, in part because of their often high-profile roles in directing operations against U.S.-led military forces and other Western targets in Afghanistan.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
Afghans Use Saudi Arabia to Broker Peace with Taliban - Ben Farmer, Daily Telegraph
Afghanistan's government signalled it was open to a deal with the Taliban as President Hamid Karzai revealed he had used Saudi Arabian envoys to relay messages of peace.
Mr Karzai said he had asked King Abdullah, the Saudi monarch, to help broker a settlement with the extremist religious movement, which was ousted from power by a US-led coalition in the wake of al-Qaeda's terrorist attacks on America in 2001.
Speaking during a ceremony to mark the religious festival of Eid, Mr Karzai said he had made a direct plea to Mullah Omar, the cleric who has overseen the Taliban's revival across Afghanistan's Pashtun heartland. "A few days ago I called upon their leader, Mullah Omar, and said 'My brother, my dear, come back to your homeland, come and work for the peace and good of your people and stop killing your brothers'."
Mr Karzai said he had offered the Taliban leadership a guarantee of protection from international forces in Afghanistan, if they returned for peace talks: "They should come back and not be afraid of the foreigners. I will stand in front of the foreigners."
More at the Daily Telegraph, New York Times and Associated Press.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan Spy Chief Replaced Amid ‘Double Game’ Suspicions - Zahid Hussain, The Times
Pakistan bowed to US pressure and named a new spy chief yesterday amid fears that elements within the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had been playing a “double game” in the War on Terror.
Lieutenant-General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the new head of the ISI, had been leading the Pakistani Army’s campaign against Islamic militants in the lawless northwest of the country.
He is a close associate of General Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, who replaced President Musharraf as head of the military in December. He replaces Lieutenant-General Nadeem Taj, who had an uneasy relationship with the new civilian Government of President Zardari.
Lieutenant-General Pasha’s promotion came as part of a shake-up of the military leadership.
More at The Times and The Australian.
AMERICAS
Mexico's President Calderon Has Few Choices in Drug War - Ken Ellingwood, Los Angeles Times
Stretched thin in an uphill battle against drug gangs, the government of Mexican President Felipe Calderon faces increasingly stark options at a pivotal moment.
A fatal Sept. 15 grenade attack on civilians in western Mexico, coming on top of a steadily rising death toll nationwide, drastically altered the stakes in the nearly 2-year-old crackdown.
Calderon now has little room to pull back without appearing beaten. But the attack, which killed eight people during an Independence Day celebration in Calderon's home state of Michoacan, is testing the public's stomach for the increasingly savage conflict.
"The violence is not going to stop soon. There will be more actions," political analyst Alfonso Zarate warned last week in the daily El Universal newspaper. "However, neither the government nor the public can turn back."
The crisis has reopened debate over alternatives, including legalizing drugs. Many Mexicans wonder aloud whether Calderon should revert to the practices of earlier governments, led by the Institutional Revolutionary Party, that tolerated traffickers as long as they kept the killings of noncombatants down and bribes up.
Calderon's aides have publicly ruled out any peace deals with the drug underworld.
More at The Los Angeles Times.
AFRICA
Somali Pirates Tell All: They’re in It for the Money - Jeffrey Gettleman, New York Times
The Somali pirates who hijacked a Ukrainian freighter loaded with tanks, artillery, grenade launchers and ammunition said in an interview on Tuesday that they had no idea the ship was carrying arms when they seized it on the high seas.
“We just saw a big ship,” the pirates’ spokesman, Sugule Ali, said in a telephone interview. “So we stopped it.”
The pirates quickly learned, though, that their booty was an estimated $30 million worth of heavy weaponry, heading for Kenya or Sudan, depending on whom you ask.
In a 45-minute interview, Mr. Sugule spoke on everything from what the pirates wanted (“just money”) to why they were doing this (“to stop illegal fishing and dumping in our waters”) to what they had to eat on board (rice, meat, bread, spaghetti, “you know, normal human-being food”).
He said that so far, in the eyes of the world, the pirates had been misunderstood. “We don’t consider ourselves sea bandits,” he said. “We consider sea bandits those who illegally fish in our seas and dump waste in our seas and carry weapons in our seas. We are simply patrolling our seas. Think of us like a coast guard.”
More at The New York Times.
UNITED KINGDOM
Gurkhas Finally Win Their Own Battle of Britain - Lucy Bannerman and Andrew Sharples, The Times
With their battle cry of Ayo Gorkhali (Forward Gurkhas), former soldiers from Nepal celebrated on the steps of the High Court yesterday after winning their battle to stay in the country they risked their lives to serve.
The Government had decided that 2,000 Gurkha soldiers who retired before July 1997 did not have the necessary “strong ties to the UK” to allow entry. Yesterday a High Court judge ruled that the Gurkhas had been treated unlawfully, and found that the immigration policy denying them visas was irrational and misleading.
Mr Justice Blake said the restrictions needed “urgent revisiting” and set the Home Office a deadline of three months to review the situation.It is now hoped that the ruling for the test case of five Gurkhas and a widow will clear the way for more than 2,000 veterans whose visa claims were rejected to finally settle in Britain.
More at The Times, Times editorial Gurkhas: The Right Thing To Do and Daily Telegraph editorial Our Debt to the Gurkhas.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Afghanistan's Karzai Calls for Talks with Taliban - Voice of America
No Winter Halt in War Against the Taleban - The Times
Diggers Nab Another Senior Taliban Insurgent - The Australian
Suspected US Drone Strike Kills Four in Pakistan - Agence France-Presse
Pakistan
Terrorist Attacks in Pakistan Stir Anger at US - Christian Science Monitor
Iraq
Report Says Iraq Security Improves, Fundamental Conflict Remains - AFPS
Violence Declines Further in Iraq - Washington Post
Iraq is Better but 'Fragile,' US Commander Says - USA Today
'We Should Go Outside and Live' - Washington Post
Iraqi Forces Win More Control and Lose Lives - Associated Press
How a Girl was Turned into a Sucide Bomber - The Times
Defense Department Announces Upcoming Iraq Deployments - AFPS
Iran
In Iran, 3 Degrees of Separation From Truth - New York Times
Ahmadinejad's Evil Words Aren't Just Talk - Los Angeles Times opinion
Art of War
Disciples of Strategy and Disciples of a Strategist - Information Dissemination blog
Public Diplomacy
Principles of Strategic Communication - MountainRunner blog
A Theory of Strategic Communication - MountainRunner blog
US Department of Defense
China Report Urges Missile Shield - Washington Times
Colonel Debunks Individual Ready Reserve Mobilization Myths - AFPS
United Nations
All the World's a United Nations Stage - Los Angeles Times
Interpol
Database Expands Reach of Interpol - Washington Times
Africa
Africans Wary on New US Command for Continent - Associated Press
Officials: 3 Pirates Killed on Hijacked Ship off Somalia - Voice of America
Three Dead as Somali Pirates Fight Each Other - Daily Telegraph
Ukrainian Ship Hijacking Causes Concern at Pentagon - AFPS
US Fleet Circles Somalian Pirates - Agence France-Presse
Pirates Say they Celebrated Muslim Holiday on Ship - Associated Press
Freed Sahara Hostages Tell of Chaotic Escape - The Times
Egypt Hostages: We Were Released, Not Rescued - Daily Telegraph
Americas
S. America United in Outrage at US Crisis - Washington Post
Asia Pacific
US Envoy Hopes 'Conversation' in N. Korea Will Save Nuclear Deal - VOA
US Nuclear Envoy to Bring New Proposal to N. Korea - Associated Press
Violence in Korean Waters Puts China Relations at Risk - Los Angeles Times
Slow Recovery for Burma's Cyclone Victims - Christian Science Monitor
Europe
EU Deploys Monitors in Georgia - New York Times
Russia Bans EU Monitors from Georgian Territory - Daily Telegraph
For Abkhazia, a 'Special' Independence Day - Washington Post
Many Georgians Still Revere Stalin After War - New York Times
Middle East
Tripoli Blast Further Strains Lebanese Tensions - Christian Science Monitor
South Asia
US-India Nuclear Accord Before Senate - Washington Post
Scores Killed in India Stampede - Washington Post
Stampede in India Kills at Least 147 - New York Times
BOOKS
In a Time of War - Bill Murphy
The West Point cadets Murphy follows through their baptism by fire are an admirable sample of young American men and women: intelligent, ambitious and intensely patriotic.
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
The War Within - Bob Woodward
Woodward interviewed key players, obtained dozens of never-before-published documents, and had nearly three hours of exclusive interviews with President Bush. The result is a stunning, firsthand history of the years from mid-2006, when the White House realizes the Iraq strategy is not working, through the decision to surge another 30,000 U.S. troops in 2007, and into mid-2008, when the war becomes a fault line in the presidential election.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
Iraq and the Evolution of American Strategy - Steven Metz
Today the US military is more nimble, mobile, and focused on rapid responses against smaller powers than ever before. One could argue that the Gulf War and the postwar standoff with Saddam Hussein hastened needed military transformation and strategic reassessments in the post–Cold War era. But the preoccupation with Iraq also mired the United States in the Middle East and led to a bloody occupation. What will American strategy look like after US troops leave Iraq?
EVENTS OF INTEREST
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.
3-7 November - Counterinsurgency Leaders' Workshop (COIN Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Center. This event is a five-day program focused on understanding the fundamentals of insurgency and counterinsurgency. This is a version of the same extremely popular workshop offered to hundreds of military and civilian attendees over the past two years. The COIN Center has expanded the number of slots available to compensate for the high demand of previous sessions. The proceedings are UNCLASSIFED and registration is open to all interested US government and allied personnel.
6-7 December - Boyd Conference 2008 (Conference). Charlottetown, Prince Edward, Canada. There is an opportunity to hold a short, intense seminar on the applicability of Boyd’s ideas, particularly operating inside the OODA loop and grand strategy (sustaining our own morale and attracting the uncommitted), on the weekend of December 6-7 at the University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PEI. Canada. The theme would be applying these ideas to conflict in the post-Iraq era, and more specifically to the types of diffused, networked, “open source” armed conflicts that some have called “fifth generation warfare.” We are also interested in exploring solutions, such as the role of “resilient communities” (RC), for countering them. As Oil and food prices have climbed and the mortgage crisis has grown, the need to think more about Resilient Communities has become more urgent. We may have to re-invent our world! We envision this as a working seminar to help shape the policy agenda in the first year of the new administration.
