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IRAQ / AFGHANISTAN
Plan Would Shift Forces From Iraq to Afghanistan - Michael Gordon and Thom Shanker, New York Times
The United States would carry out a modest shift of American forces from Iraq to Afghanistan by early next year under a confidential recommendation to President Bush by the Pentagon’s top civilian and military leaders, according to Bush administration officials.
The number of American combat brigades in Iraq would shrink to 14 in February from 15, according to the recommendation. All told, the number of American forces in Iraq, currently about 146,000, would drop by nearly 8,000 by March.
The reduction is smaller than some officials had earlier suggested might be possible before President Bush leaves office in January, given the significant decline in violence in Iraq. But it reflects the caution of Gen. David H. Petraeus, who is leaving his post as the senior American commander in Iraq this month, about the still-unsettled situation in Iraq.
The recommendation on the troop shift was presented to Mr. Bush on Wednesday in a video conference by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. American officials said the recommendation was the product of extensive consultations between the Pentagon officials and General Petraeus.
Under the proposal, an Army brigade and a Marine battalion would be sent to Afghanistan by early next year, adding about 4,500 troops to American forces there. They would represent a partial but still significant move toward meeting repeated requests from American commanders in Afghanistan for three more brigades, a reinforcement that the commanders say is necessary to carry out the mission there and to combat a resurgent Taliban.
More at The New York Times.
Pentagon Urges Extended Pause in Iraq Drawdown - Karen DeYoung and Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post
Pentagon leaders have recommended to President Bush that the United States make no further troop reductions in Iraq this year, administration officials said yesterday.
The plan, delivered this week, calls for extending a pause in drawdowns until late January or early February -- after the Bush administration has left office. At that point, up to 7,500 of the approximately 146,000 troops in Iraq could be withdrawn, depending on conditions on the ground there. The reduction would coincide with new deployments to Afghanistan, officials said.
Defense officials described the recommendation as a compromise between those who believed that security gains in Iraq remained too tenuous to contemplate further withdrawals now, and those who proposed continuing the reductions that began this spring.
More at the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times.
IRAQ
Victory in Anbar - Washington Post editorial
In December 2006, the month before President Bush announced the "surge" strategy for Iraq, 47 US soldiers died in Anbar province, which many in Washington had written off as lost to al-Qaeda. During 2008 thus far, the American death count in Anbar stands at 24 -- including just two killed by hostile fire during the past two months. That is one measure of the dramatic turnaround in the war over the past 20 months -- and explains why on Monday US commanders could turn over control of what was once the heartland of the insurgency to the Iraqi army. Though there is, as ever, reason for concern about the future of the Sunni province, this is a significant success.
Anbar was where al-Qaeda located its attempt to turn Iraq into what it called the center of its war against the United States. By 2004 it ruled the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi; by 2006 it had declared an "Islamic emirate" in the region. Two years ago this month, The Post reported that a Marine assessment had concluded that the situation in Anbar was "dire" and that the province was "lost politically." The turnaround since then has been a crushing blow for al-Qaeda -- one that is not lessened, in its impact on the Arab Middle East, by the fact that the terrorist group did not begin operations in Anbar until after the US invasion.
More at The Washington Post.
How to Exit Iraq - John Nagl, Colin Kahl, and Shawn Brimley, New York Times opinion
John McCain spoke of his hopes for Iraq’s future last night. When we traveled around Basra recently escorted by Iraqi Army soldiers and a handful of coalition advisers, we glimpsed a model of post-American Iraq that he and Barack Obama would do well to consider. This world, defined principally by more capable Iraqi security forces taking the lead with coalition support and an increasingly confident Iraqi government, defies the simplistic “all in” or “all out” way that Iraq is debated in Washington.
With the Bush administration now working out an agreement on having American troops out by 2012, understanding how this withdrawal will proceed is vital. Basra is as an example of what an exit strategy might look like - and of the dangers of getting it wrong.
After the 2003 invasion, control over southern Iraq was handed over to British forces. Without adequate troops to protect the population, security in Basra deteriorated, the British withdrew and Shiite militias took control. In late March of this year, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki launched an offensive in Basra to clear the city of militias, but the Iraqi Army quickly got bogged down. American special operations forces and combat advisers reinforced Iraqi units, providing crucial air and fire support and detailed intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. As a result, Iraqi security forces turned the tide and now control the city.
The lesson of Basra is clear: a rapid withdrawal risks a resurgence of violence, but a responsible drawdown and a reorientation of the mission away from combat and toward advising Iraqi forces stand a good chance of advancing our interests in Iraq at acceptable cost.
More at The New York Times.
PAKISTAN / AFGHANISTAN
Pakistan: Uproar Grows Over First Ground Assault by US Troops - Liam Stack, Christian Science Monitor
United States forces conducted their first ground assaults into Pakistani territory from bases in Afghanistan early Wednesday morning in a raid on a suspected Taliban stronghold in South Waziristan, one of Pakistan's lawless tribal areas. The attack has caused an uproar in Pakistan and raised concerns of a new period of tension between the US and its valuable, nuclear-armed ally in the war on terror, which has entered a period of political uncertainty after the resignation of long-serving president Pervez Musharraf last month.
The US has not officially commented on the raid, and leaders of the US-led NATO peacekeeping force in Afghanistan deny any knowledge of the attack, reports Reuters. But one US official, speaking to CNN on the condition of anonymity, confirmed that the attack had occurred.
US May Step Up Raids in Pakistan - Julian Barnes and Greg Miller, Los Angeles Times
Even as angry protests spread in Pakistan, Pentagon officials said Thursday that the number of cross-border commando missions may grow in coming months to counter increasing violence in Afghanistan.
The developments threatened to aggravate US-Pakistani tensions just before the country's presidential election Saturday, in which attitudes toward the United States are likely to be a key issue. The US raid Wednesday and its aftermath also fanned a long-standing debate within the Bush administration over how to deal with militants in Pakistan.
Pakistani officials said US troops flew into South Waziristan by helicopter in the raid and that as many as 20 people were killed, many thought to be civilians. The White House, State Department and Pentagon all moved to clamp down on administration discussion of the assault, but government officials confirmed the broad details provided by the Pakistani government.
US military officials insisted that there was no new policy authorizing an increase in raids into Pakistan. Assaults by US special operations forces into Pakistan have taken place before, and US-operated unmanned aircraft have attacked sites believed to be used by militants.
But pressure has been building within the military for more aggressive use of existing practices as US casualties have increased with the rising number of attacks carried out in Afghanistan by militants based in Pakistan.
More at the Los Angeles Times, Christian Science Monitor, The Australian, Daily Telegraph, Toronto Star and Associated Press.
IRAN / HEZBOLLAH
Beware the Avenging Hezbollah - Washington Times editorial
Iran may have stepped up its proxy war against Israel in recent months, with Hezbollah embarking on a new project: kidnapping and/or assassinating Israeli civilians abroad. On Thursday, senior Israeli officials in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office advised Israelis visiting Egypt (and the Sinai Peninsula in particular) to leave immediately, citing the risk that terrorists might target Israeli tourists.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Tuesday that Israel thwarted two attempts by Hezbollah to abduct Israeli diplomats and businessmen travelling abroad, and other government officials say that Hezbollah, with Iranian support, is searching the world for "soft" Israeli targets - usually unarmed civilians - to kidnap or kill. "Hezbollah goes from country to country looking for Israeli prey," a security source told journalist David Bedein, writing in the Philadelphia Bulletin. In several cases (the government will not say where) Israel has temporarily withdrawn diplomats and their dependents after learning that they could be attacked. Kidnappings were prevented as a result of cooperation between Israeli and foreign intelligence services in Western Africa, Asia and North America and South America. Two recent Hezbollah operations took place in Canada. In mid-June, its members tried to collect information on the Israeli embassy in Ottawa and other Israeli targets in the country. According to Israeli officials, terror cells in Toronto had recently been observed watching members of an El Al crew there. The terrorists were seen at the Sheraton Centre Toronto Hotel - where pilots and crew from the Israeli carrier stay between Toronto-Tel Aviv flights.
Officials also warned of danger to Israelis who visit Jordan, Thailand, Turkey, Uzbekistan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Morocco.
More at the Washington Times and Toronto Star.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Iraq
US Spied on Iraqi Leaders, Book Says - Washington Post
Iraq Report XI - Weekly Standard opinion
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Karzai Visits Scene of Deadly American-led Raid - Los Angeles Times
Karzai Promises 'Justice' to Villagers Hit by US Strike - Voice of America
Taleban Poses in Dead Soldier's Uniform - The Times
Taliban Trophy Photos Horrify France - Reuters
Russia / Georgia / NATO
Cheney Vows Support for Georgia, Condemns Russia - Washington Post
Cheney Backs Membership in NATO for Georgia - New York Times
Cheney Affirms Ties with Georgia - Los Angeles Times
Cheney Delivers Warning to Moscow - The Times
Cheney Attacks Russia for 'Illegitimate' Invasion - Daily Telegraph
Britain Values Unity in NATO over Georgia - The Times
Georgia Linked to NATO Early Warning System - The Times
Russia’s Oligarchs May Face a Georgian Chill - New York Times
Putin Wants a New Russian Empire - Daily Telegraph opinion
Iran
Iran: Assessing US Strategic Options - Center for a New American Security
The Long War
Pakistani Tortured, Her Attorney Says - Washington Post
US Department of Defense
Soldiers' Suicide Rate On Pace to Set Record - Washington Post
With Rising Suicide Rates, Army Urges Soldiers to Act - AFPS
Australia
Defence Spend Surges to World's 13th - The Australian
Defence Axes $150m Boeing Drone Deal - The Australian
Africa
Rice's Visit to a Changed Libya - Christian Science Monitor
Rice Set for Historic Libya Visit - The Australian
Mugabe Gives Tsvangarai Power-sharing Ultimatum - The Times
Somalia: Pirates Demand $1m Ransom for Yacht Couple - The Times
Americas
Gates Urges Inter-American Collaboration on Security Challenges - AFPS
US Offers Storm Aid to Cuba Only Through Relief Groups - New York Times
Asia / Pacific
Thai Leader Promises Referendum - New York Times
Thai Leader to Seek Confidence Vote - The Australian
Thailand: The Sinister People's Alliance for Democracy - The Times
2 Students Shot, Wounded at Thai Protest Rally - Associated Press
N. Korea Warned of Reactor Work - New York Times
Europe
First Armenian Visit for Turkey - The Australian
Middle East
France Gives Boost to Israeli-Syrian Talks - Christian Science Monitor
Syria Makes Peace Proposal to Israel - Associated Press
British Aid Workers Risk Arrest in Gaza - The Times
South Asia
US Letter Incites Push to Oust India Leader - New York Times
US Letter Puts India's Premier on Defensive - Washington Post
Pakistan's Zardari Eyes Presidency - Washington Post
Zardari Set to Win Pakistan Presidency - Washington Times
Bhutto Widower With Clouded Past Is Set to Lead - New York Times
Five Women Buried Alive in 'Honour Killings' - The Times
Pakistani Girls and Women Buried Alive in "Honour Killings" - The Australian
United Nations
Donors’ Aid to Poor Nations Declines, UN Reports - New York Times
BOOK REVIEW
With the Best Intentions - Adam Hochscild, New York Times
Freedom’s Battle is really two books that don’t quite fit together. The longer and better one is a lively narrative history of a string of European efforts to stop various massacres in the 19th-century Ottoman Empire. In several short chapters before and after this story is a shorter and weaker book, in which Gary J. Bass argues for humanitarian military interventions as a tool of international justice today. The historical episodes, he claims, are “rare lights along an otherwise dark road” that show us how these might work. For me that road remains dark, for reasons I will come back to, but much of the history Bass unearths is fascinating and well told.
BOOKS
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
BOOK DISCUSSIONS / SIGNINGS
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search For a Way Out of Iraq by Linda Robinson. 10 September 2008, 4:30 PM - Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at SAIS, Washington, D.C. Details.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq by Bing West. 11 September 2008, 12:00 - 2:00 PM - Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C. Headquarters. Details.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.
16-18 September - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
17 September - The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran in the Global Context (Public Event - Symposium). Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the by the Marine Corps University (MCU) and the Marine Corps University Foundation to enhance the overall understanding of Iran, exploring its internal dynamics, regional perspectives, and extra-regional factors and examining its near-term political and strategic options and their potential impact on the course of action of the United States and the USMC.
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.