QUOTE OF THE DAY
"Trying to figure out if you're winning [in COIN] is like trying to figure out if your grass is growing by staring at it for an hour."
--Company Commander, Iraq (H/T Cavguy)
IRAQ
The War Within - Washington Post series adapted from The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008 by Bob Woodward. Part 1 - Doubt, Distrust, Delay.
During the summer of 2006, from her office adjacent to the White House, deputy national security adviser Meghan O'Sullivan sent President Bush a daily top secret report cataloging the escalating bloodshed and chaos in Iraq. "Violence has acquired a momentum of its own and is now self-sustaining," she wrote July 20, quoting from an intelligence assessment.
Her dire evaluation contradicted the upbeat assurances that President Bush was hearing from Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the US commander in Iraq. Casey and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld were pushing to draw down American forces and speed the transfer of responsibility to the Iraqis. Despite months of skyrocketing violence, Casey insisted that within a year, Iraq would be mostly stable, with the bulk of American combat troops headed home.
Publicly, the president claimed the United States was winning the war, and he expressed unwavering faith in Casey, saying, "It's his judgment that I rely upon." Privately, he was losing confidence in the drawdown strategy. He questioned O'Sullivan that summer with increasing urgency: "What are you hearing from people in Baghdad? What are people's daily lives like?"
More at The Washington Post.
'The War Within' - New York Times book review
AFGHANISTAN
Hamid Karzai Blames Britain for Taliban Resurgence - Dean Nelson, The Times
The president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, has blamed Britain for the resurgence of the Taliban and its growing activity in large tracts of the country.
His remarks, made to Afghan MPs, follow a clash with Gordon Brown over the Kabul regime’s links with warlords and drugs barons.
Karzai claims Brown has threatened to withdraw British troops from Helmand province, where 31 of them have died this year, if the president reinstates two provincial governors sacked for alleged dealings in the heroin trade.
One of them is Sher Mohammed Akhundzada, the former governor of Helmand, who was forced out under British pressure two years ago after nine tons of opium and heroin were discovered in his basement. Karzai’s plan to reinstate the governors has alarmed western diplomats in Kabul and dismayed British officials.
More at The Times.
PAKISTAN
Bhutto’s Widower Elected in Pakistan - Jane Perlez and Salman Masood, New York Times
Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of the assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto who has little experience in governing, was elected president of Pakistan on Saturday by a wide margin. Mr. Zardari, 53, who spent 11 years in jail on corruption charges that remain unproved, succeeds Pervez Musharraf, who resigned last month under the threat of impeachment. He is expected to be sworn in on Monday or Tuesday, officials said.
Mr. Zardari has the tacit approval of the United States, which views him as an ally in the campaign against terrorism. He has promised a tougher fight against members of the Taliban and Al Qaeda ensconced in the nation’s tribal areas, from where they mount assaults on American and NATO troops in Afghanistan.
His election coincides with a stepped-up effort by the United States to root out the Taliban and Al Qaeda from the tribal areas. American commandos attacked militants in a village near the Afghan border on Wednesday, in what American military officials said could be a continuing campaign in Pakistan’s tribal region.
Evidence is growing that the government and military face almost overwhelming difficulties in battling the militants, who now virtually control the tribal areas. In a reminder of that challenge, a suicide bomber killed at least 30 people and wounded 80 at a police checkpoint near Peshawar on Saturday.
More at the New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Times, Voice of America and Daily Telegraph.
ISRAEL / IRAN
Shimon Peres Warns Israel’s Hawks Over Iran Strik - Uzi Mahnaimi, The Times
Israel's president, Shimon Peres, has warned the prime minister that a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could provoke a broader conflict.
Peres is the first senior politician to advise Ehud Olmert against such an attack at a time of growing tension when other leading figures are threatening airstrikes unless Tehran halts its nuclear programme.
The Israeli air force has rehearsed an operation to destroy sites connected with the project.
“The military way will not solve the problem,” said Peres, the 85-year-old founder of the Jewish state’s nuclear programme, in an interview with The Sunday Times.
More at The Times.
GAZA
Watching ‘Friends’ in Gaza: A Culture Clash - Michael Kimmelman, New York Times
As much as the Pakistan-Afghan frontier, this is a front line in the so-called global war on terror, in which anti-Western strains of Islam rub up against the social and cultural proclivities of many, perhaps most, Muslims.
How the West fares, improbable as it might seem, may depend as much on whether people in this forsaken strip of land and elsewhere in this part of the world are watching “Zohan” and Dr. Phil, as on skirmishes in the mountains south of Kabul. What’s happening in a humble Gazan music store, it turns out, has repercussions across the region and beyond.
Gaza isn’t what you might imagine, culturally speaking. Like the West Bank, it occupies a special place in the Middle East: Gazans may loathe Israel but have worked there or spent years in Israeli prisons, and while they haven’t taken up Jewish culture, they’ve experienced Western life as many other Arabs haven’t. This has encouraged a sensibility that, until lately anyway, had a moderating effect on religion and society.
More at The New York Times.
US FOREIGN POLICY
Bush Owes His Successor A Tough Finish on Foreign Policy - John Bolton, Wall Street Journal opinion
As the Bush administration enters its last months, its pursuit of a "legacy," especially in foreign policy, becomes ever more frenetic.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's travel schedule is packed. State Department "signing ceremonies" are blossoming, even for agreements that would not have attracted high-level attention just last year. Editorial writers are being quietly encouraged to laud administration successes.
While neither unique nor unexpected, the legacy frenzy masks what should be our real concern until Jan. 20, 2009: the risk of a vulnerable administration making significant, unforced errors and concessions that will burden America well into the future. As our attention turns to a presidential election in two short months, the US is entering a period of vulnerability made more dangerous by the administration's provocative weakness.
More at The Wall Street Journal.
EFFECTS BASED OPERATIONS / ETC.
Battles of Military Doctrine - Mark Safranski, ZenPundit blog
All strategic theories as they percolate through a massive bureaucracy tend to become distorted, misunderstood, inflated, stretched to cover pre-existing agendas, get advanced in tandem with career interests and be misapplied to situations for which they were never intended. EBO is no exception but “banning” concepts wholesale from discussion is less healthy for the long term intellectual good of an organization than is simply subjecting them to warranted criticism.
More at ZenPundit.
Shane Deichman. Wizards of Oz, has a different take in his post Reorienting "Effects" Focus.
General Jim Mattis, USMC, Commander of US Joint Forces Command, is continuing to demonstrate his leadership at the command who once claimed its Area of Responsibility was "the future". His latest salvo is at one of the "sacred cows" of the defense transformation movement: Effects Based Operations.
Despite much fanfare from USJFCOM J9 over the past decade, where EBO became the cornerstone of the "Rapid Decision Operations" overarching concept (and a constant source of chagrin for LtGen(ret) Paul Van Riper), earlier today General Mattis closed the door on EBO in favor of "time honored principles and terminology that our forces have tested in the crucible of battle and are well grounded in the theory and nature of war."...
This is an appropriate (albeit belated) adjustment by CDR USJFCOM to distinguish between "potentially good ideas" and "doctrine". Not just for EBO (an idea that suffered from vagueness and service parochialism since its inception) but also for "Operational Net Assessment" (ONA) and "System of Systems Analysis" (SoSA).
EBO never got over the "persistence" question (e.g., how long would "effects" endure), just as ONA never solved the "adaptability" question (i.e., how would enemy adaptations be accounted for in the model). Gen Mattis's assertion of JPs 3-0 and 5-0 is the proper thing for a Combatant Commander to do -- doctrine, not concept, drives operations.
More at Wizards of Oz.
Also see Reader Response - On Leadership and “Best Practices” of Military Command for the 21st Century.
US AIR FORCE
Tom Ricks's Inbox - Tom Ricks, Washington Post
There are a lot of "thoughts for consideration" about how a new general takes over a service in these PowerPoint slides. Here, Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, who last month became the Air Force chief of staff and has been briefing senior leaders on how to address recent failings, tries to pull the Air Force out of its recent public relations and political nosedive.
More at The Washington Post.
NEWS & OPINION NOTES
Iraq
Iraq's Air Force Taking to the Skies Again - Los Angeles Times
Out of Options in Egypt, Iraqis Head Home - Washington Post
Car Bombing Kills at Least 6 in City in Northwestern Iraq - New York Times
US Troops in Iraq Largely Staying Put - Danger Room blog
Iraq Looks to Buy New Fighter Jet Fleet - Danger Room blog
Afghanistan / Pakistan Tribal Areas
Blasts Explode at Kandahar Police HQ - Associated Press
Kandahar Rocked by Suicide Blasts - BBC News
Report From a Forgotten War - Washington Times opinion
The Guests at Kabul's Garden Parties - Boston Globe opinion
A Few Reinforcements for a Very Difficult Fight - Military Watch blog
Russia / Georgia / Ukraine / Czech Republic
Cheney Warns Russia to Reverse Its Course - New York Times
Cheney Scolds Russia Over War in Georgia - Washington Post
Cheney Pushes Unity on Moscow - Agence France-Presse
Russia Leader Says US Delivering Weapons to Georgia in Guise of Aid - VOA
Cease-fire has 'Translation Problem' - Agence France-Presse
Coming to Grips With Russia’s New Nerve - New York Times
Kosovo Prelude to Georgia? - Washington Times opinion
Iran
Putin Set to Bait US with Nuclear Aid for Tehran - The Times
China Calls for Peaceful Resolution of Iran Nuclear Standoff - New York Times
The Next President's Next War - Washington Times opinion
Iran's Negotiation Strategy: Meandering Protraction - Diplomatic Courier blog
The Long War
Al-Qa'eda Propagandist May be Dead - Daily Telegraph
Academics Label Charlie Wilson Too 'Gung-Ho' - The Times
Al-Qaeda Remains the Crux of the Problem - Philadelphia Inquirer opinion
Adaptation is Key to National Security - Philadelphia Inquirer opinion
US Department of Defense
Seeking Details, Lawmakers Cite Anthrax Doubts - New York Times
Program Aids Veterans Entering Corporate World - Washington Post
Civil Justice for an ex-Marine - Los Angeles Times editorial
Tactial Laser Could Work Like Long-Range Napalm - Danger Room blog
United Kingdom
MoD Breaches EU Rules by Training Chinese Officer - The Times
Africa
In Tunisia and Algeria, Rice Asks for Cooperation - Washington Post
In Kenya, Some Fear That Fissures Remain - Washington Post
Angolan MPLA Set for Big Poll Win - BBC News
Angolan Election Unit Extends Vote in Capital - Associated Press
Rebels: Government Assault in Darfur Thwarted - Associated Press
It's Good to be the Swazi King - Toronto Star
Libya: A Dictator Befriended - Washington Post editorial
Now Sudan Is Attacking Refugee Camps - Wall Street Journal opinion
Americas
Canada, US: Beefed Up at the Border - Toronto Star
Mexico: Police Victory Brings Deadly Revenge - Los Angeles Times
Two Colombias, at War and at Peace - New York Times
Bolivia's Morales Faces Challenge From Fellow Indian - Los Angeles Times
Venezuela Plans Russia Navy Visit - BBC News
Cuba Rejects American Offer of Hurricane Aid - New York Times
Asia / Pacific
Kim Jong-Il in Failing Health, Intel Specialist Says - World Tribune
North Korea ‘Uses Doubles to Hide Death of Kim’ - The Times
US Envoy Confident N. Korea Denuclearization Will be Resolved Soon - VOA
US Ties Protocol to Terror Delisting - Associated Press
It Isn't Looking Like Asia's Century - Washington Post opinion
Europe
Europe's Demographic Bombshell - Globe and Mail
France: Anger Over 'Ramadan' Trial Delay - BBC News
Turkey’s President Visits Armenia - New York Times
Eurotrashing Free Speech - National Review opinion
Middle East
Rock Slide Kills 24 in Cairo Slum; Hundreds Missing - Los Angeles Times
South Asia
International Group Backs Nuclear Accord For US, India - Washington Post
Atomic Club Votes to End Restrictions on India - New York Times
International Alliance Approves US-India Nuclear Deal - Los Angeles Times
BOOKS
Baghdad at Sunrise - Peter Mansoor
This compelling book presents an unparalleled record of what happened after US forces seized Baghdad in the spring of 2003.
The Strongest Tribe - Bing West
From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
Tell Me How This Ends - Linda Robinson
After a series of disastrous missteps in its conduct of the war, the White House in 2006 appointed General David Petraeus as the Commanding General of the coalition forces. Tell Me How This Ends is an inside account of his attempt to turn around a failing war.
We Are Soldiers Still - Joe Galloway
In their stunning follow-up to the classic bestseller We Were Soldiers Once... and Young, Lt. Gen. Hal Moore and Joe Galloway return to Vietnam and reflect on how the war changed them, their men, their enemies, and both countries - often with surprising results.
WE ARE SOLDIERS STILL
We Are Soldiers Still - Forward Movement
BOOK DISCUSSIONS / SIGNINGS
Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search For a Way Out of Iraq by Linda Robinson. 10 September 2008, 4:30 PM - Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at SAIS, Washington, D.C. Details.
The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq by Bing West. 11 September 2008, 12:00 - 2:00 PM - Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C. Headquarters. Details.
EVENTS OF INTEREST
11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.
16-18 September - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.
17 September - The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran in the Global Context (Public Event - Symposium). Marine Corps Base, Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the by the Marine Corps University (MCU) and the Marine Corps University Foundation to enhance the overall understanding of Iran, exploring its internal dynamics, regional perspectives, and extra-regional factors and examining its near-term political and strategic options and their potential impact on the course of action of the United States and the USMC.
2 October - Civil Affairs Roundtable (Public Event - Roundtable). ROA Headquarters, One Constitution Ave, NE Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Reserve Officers Association. In earlier roundtables, the observation was made that the center of gravity for stability operations is the human population in the area of operations. Civil affairs professionals and information operators are the key national security resources for influencing the human population. Civil affairs professionals assist in humanitarian operations and building civilian capacity. Information operators develop messages and keep the population informed. This roundtable will explore the relationship between the civil affairs and strategic communications functions.
